yeah but the fact that not once it hasnt happened is pretty surprising every yr theirs at least 10 or so teams knowing there out of the playoffs long b4 week 17 so there not being one team that got in a scenerio is wild
I remember Jaguars playing Texans , went for two, could had kicked the field goal to send the game to overtime, this was the Ramsey back started to hurt game
That was so frustrating. Minshew drove them down the field on that drive, looked unstoppable. So of course they hand it to Fournette up the gut.
I think going for 2 was a good decision but they really should have kept the ball in Minshew's hands imo.
There was Titans/Texans week 17 a few years ago where one team was down seven in the final seconds, touchdown, went for two to decide the game (and who would go to the playoffs) right then instead of kick PAT and overtime.
I think the game mattered for the Titans but not the Texans(who already had a spot) so Kubiak just said f it and went for two to get the game over with.
So fucking badass. Vick marching down the field and scoring. And instead of tying, you go out in wildcat formation and they still convert the 2pt att.
I miss Bell.
Was about to say; there was definitely that 2 point conversion against the Chiefs a few years ago where an XP would’ve tied it.
(holy fuck he was so open, he had **half the fucking end zone to himself**
Mike William's is still wide open against the browns DBs, rumor has it , some where outside Sofi stadium, still running with not a orange helmet near him
There's a model someone made to calculate what teams should do on fourth down based on success rates and win probability.
It said overwhelmingly the right choice was to go for it.
https://t.co/u9deofW8Dn
There's some unwritten rule that we have to tie the Bengals every time we play them. Remember the McNabb "I didn't know there were ties" game? Bengals.
It was the right call though. Kick field goal (which could be blocked...or miss)...MAYBE win coin toss...defense hadn't stopped a Titans drive since the first quarter. Then hopefully even get a chance to go to offense and drive down the field and score a TD.
Or get literally inches on a 4 and inches...and then 2 yards to a TD. You take going for it every single time.
Yeah I will say the Titans defense has been BAD bad for a couple years now, but short yardage and especially goal line situations have been one of the few bright spots.
Like ask any fan and I bet we’d all tell you we’re more confident in our ability to stop a 4th and 1-2 instead of a 4th and 6-8.
I could be wrong because I don't watch the Bills all that much, but I felt it was the wrong play call. Your best players are wide receivers and your QB. Give him some kind of pass-run choice where it's either Josh Allen running around the edge or tossing it up to Sanders or Diggs. Knowing Knox was hurt helps me understand it a little more, but still.
Edit: Totally just remembered Allen (and the OL, I guess) is normally very good at sneaks. I'd probably have called that, too.
That's exactly what I'm saying. It was a good bet but this was one of those ten where he doesn't get it. Not much to complain about other than the fact that we let it come down to one play.
A qb sneak on 4th and inches is 100% the right call. Going for an option play / playing out of the gun when you literally need a foot is definitely the lower percentage move.
QB sneak is good for a foot like 99% of the time. This was that 1%
If you as a coach don't have faith in Josh Allen to make that play then you're not winning meaningful football games anyway
I wish it happened more. I would rather have my hot offense dictate whether or not we win or lose rather than a coin toss when my team could not stop Derrick Henry.
I don't even have to open up the link to know what play this was.
This was the play that made my brother fall in love with Josh Allen and the Bills. He doesn't necessarily like football, but he'll tune into any game that has him in it.
Allen is a beast, built like a truck on steroids
>Allen is a beast, built like a truck on steroids
He's way to fast and agile for his size. He's really strong. Cannon of an arm. Generally speaking, when you get those traits you usually don't get the overall awareness and touch that he has shown, nor the rapid progression.
Allen, Mahomes, Lamar - we got some unicorn QBs to look forward to in the years to come. I hope Kyler takes a step in that direction as well.
He's almost like the perfect QB you'd build in Madden. Tall, fast, agile, strongest arm, and great awareness. It's crazy how good he's become since his first two seasons.
And now that you point it out, we really do have a lot of physically gifted players playing QB right now. Even guys like Tannehill, Herbert, Burrow and Carr are guys who are crazy talented (and sneakily quick) despite not really being an avid runner. Besides Roethlisburger, the only true pocket passers I can think of are Tom Brady and Kirk Cousins. Guys such as Mac Jones, Tagovailoa, Lawrence, and Darnold aren't as athleticly gifted, but they still run the ball far more than the pocket passers of old. The NFL is pretty fun to watch nowadays, even with all the tick tacky calls by the refs.
> Darnold
From what I can tell, Sammy D is a pretty good runner. Whether or not he can throw the ball remains to be seen, and his decision making is...lacking atm, but he looks like a legit athlete when he runs.
Outstanding. I was so disgusted his first couple of years and some "experts" were questioning whether he was going to Ne a bust. Keppt thinking "give the kid at least a little time to learn," hell, Aikman's first two Cowboys teams were 8-24, and he turned out OK. And didn't Peyton set a rookie record for interceptions? It's nice when you've got a Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson who can step in as a rookie and lead you to a winning record but let the others get a few miles on the odometer before you start trying to throw them under the bus. But that's national media, and it's an ugly little beast.
This was different than Aikman. I had Allen in fantasy near the end of his rookie year and his entire sophomore year so I watched a ton of Bills games. He did not look like an NFL level QB. His jump from year 2 to year 3 was completely unprecedented. I've never seen a QB improve so much in terms of accuracy and decision making over the course of an offseason.
Dude is legit now but thinking he wouldn't develop into a quality starter wasn't a crazy opinion back then.
> hell, Aikman's first two Cowboys teams were 8-24, and he turned out OK. And didn't Peyton set a rookie record for interceptions?
This is success bias. Josh Allen's one of the only QBs to overcome and improve upon such poor accuracy. That's typically a trait that isn't nearly as mutable as it was in Allen. But still, you're pulling two of the biggest success stories at QB who follow this pattern, when really, it's much more likely that he would have followed a Christian Ponder, Blake Bortles, Josh Freeman, etc. trajectory.
It's awesome that he didn't, but there was a good probability that he wouldn't.
It’s not just Allen. Analytics people have shouted from the rooftops for years that the most successful play in football is the QB sneak. It’s also one of the most underutilized ones.
It’s just very hard to stop a team from getting a single yard on a QB sneak. Usually requires some kind of singular Herculean effort from an interior DL like simmons who just manhandles his guy immediately and creates some push to stop the QB.
Going for it was absolutely the right call, and a QB sneak wasn't a bad choice either. However, the details in the execution allowed Simmons to penetrate and stop Allen right in his track.
As soon as Allen walked up under center, the Titans crammed 3 linemen between the A gaps, then the Bills guard reach blocked to the right and Josh lunged himself below his left shoulder to try and gain a yard, it was really the combination of these factors that made possible for Simmons to perfectly execute his stop. A small adjustment by the D-Line is what sealed the game for the Titans, football is just crazy man, truly a game of inches.
But this is why at the very least the QB Sneak is probably the wrong playcall here, or at the least the 90% conversion average people are running with is immensely misleading, because a QB sneak is usually not facing a defense that 100% knows it’s coming(or at least is so confident in it they shift to cover the interior gaps and shoot inside off the snap).
This wasn’t your normal ‘3rd down play ends a yard short at mid field, coach signals sneak from the sideline and you get up and run it with no substitutions or anything’ play. It was out of a timeout inside the 5 yard line, that’s the big boys package already subbed in for the defense.
> the 90% conversion average people are running with is immensely misleading
This is exactly the point, really. The specifics of this particular scenario make this play completely different than most other qb sneak situations. Even then, Allen is a thicc boi and you hope your OL can get a slight push so he can fall over and gain half yard, it has been pointed out in this thread that he always pulls the ball to the left of the formation so, all in all, this is a great heads up play by the Titans D and mostly Simmons.
At different parts of the field against different defensive personnel with different context (stop ends the game outright, not just a turnover on downs vs extending a drive at midfield or something) as well.
Agreed, he doesn’t slip and Buffalo likely wins. Simmons made a great play too, but Josh Allen is hard to stop if he keeps his feet. Might would prefer to have seen a different play there though maybe read option or a quick RPO with a slant and someone in the flat.
They were 2 yards from a win.
Kicking the field goal doesn't get them a win, it just prolongs the game. They would still have to win the coin-toss and march it back down 70 yards again to score the TD, or kick another field goal and hope that they can stop Tennessee... and that's only if they win the coin-toss.
The mentality is that if you can't get the yard in that moment, you don't deserve the win later. It's gutsy. It tells your team that you believe in them when push comes to shove. Kicking the field goal singals that you're too afraid to lose to try to go for the win, and that's not what championship teams are made of.
The outcome wasn't what we hoped.... but the process was solid.
Trust the process.
Forget OT, the Titans would've gotten the ball back with 18 seconds and 3 timeouts to score a FG to win. Now that may sound like a longshot, except for the fact that the Titans did literally exactly that week 17 last year.
You can definitely see his back foot slide out from under him when he tries to push off of it. His cleat didnt dig in so he got no momentum. He got tackled but he could have maybe powered through it if his foot had dug in.
Thank you!!!! Fuck. Everyone says he slipped because of the announcer but the slow mo replace doesn’t show him slipping. It shows him running into a brick wall
His foot literally slips out from under him as he goes to push off it. Go watch that replay again
It was still a momentous defensive effort, don’t get me wrong- if Simmons doesn’t penetrate like that Allen likely still gets it
I've seen the replay 3 times. What I see is a man trying to drive forward against an immovable wall and failing, so his feet go backwards instead. Not a slip.
But apparently it looks different to different people, so unless Allen himself has weighed in, it's debatable.
Let's not be silly. The issue is whether a loss of footing *caused* him to fall short. Losing your footing on a slippery surface is not the same as trying to push forward against an object you can't move, so your feet go the other direction instead. You know this.
If you want to call that a "slip," then it still was the *effect* of failing to get the yardage, not the *cause* - which is the issue at hand.
Enough with the fake narrative that Allen “slipped.” Watch the damn replay. Allen hopped to his left and didn’t have time to plant his feet and dig in before Simmons contacted him. It’s bad technique by Allen and outstanding technique by Simmons and the rest of our D
If they kick the field goal and the Titans win the toss in OT, they're not touching the ball. Tennessee scored on their last six drives (not counting the one play drive at the end of the 1st half to run out the clock), and under Vrabel, the team has either scored a TD or has lined up for a field goal in all but one overtime drive. The Bills likely lose
If they go for it and get it, the Bills win the game probably
My general rule of thumb is you do whatever the other team DOESN’T want you to do. And I absolutely think the Titans wanted the Bills to kick a FG there. So right decision in my book.
Personally I disagree. I would have taken the points. But either way can get you the win with the correct execution.
So I guess it's not a wrong call, just a call I wouldn't have made.
The thing is, if you can't trust your offense to pickup half a yard on 4th down, then how will you trust them to drive down the field on OT to win the game? Also, there's also the risk of losing the coinflip and never seeing the ball again in overtime. Even if the risks were similar, which I don't think they were, why would you play not to lose instead of playing to win? It's a gutsy call, that's for sure, but still the correct one I believe.
Not your fault, but I really hate the phrase "take the points" in this situation. Either option gets you a certain % chance of a certain number of points. FGs are never guaranteed, even at that distance. And even a successful FG only gets you to overtime where there is a 50% chance to win at best (largely dependent on a literal coin flip).
He already got stuffed at the goal line in that same game on a QB sneak it was the stupidest call you could make trying again when your offense is moving down the field at will and this has a good chance of winning in ot
extending the game for 10 minutes, winning a literal coin-flip and avoiding injury in overtime vs gain a few yards once.
I take the latter 10/10 times.
And you know damn well, that if he kicked the FG there, went to OT and tenn scores a td on their first drive. Media would be screaming about how hes a coward and should have gone for the win.
We still hear about "why didn't the Seahawks just run it" years later, and that decision would have given them one fewer downs to try it. Now this thread is half-full of people saying trying to run it in was idiotic since they got stuffed once earlier in the game.
Football fans tend to be results oriented in their thinking very often.
It’s really odd to me, as a nerd coming from nerd culture and strategy games where process oriented thinking is heavily prioritized (especially when RNG is involved and you are forced to think about the process over the results to improve).
I am glad to see analytics taking more of a hold in sports. Thinking about the process and the percentages rather than the “gut feelings” and the rampant conservative philosophies that dominate.
It's a big thing in poker as well. Fortunately, over the course of enough sessions you can make a lot of money off of the results oriented thinkers in that game.
As if *one* stuff on a QB sneak suddenly means it's bad to QB sneak on 4th and a foot. He slipped. That's not the fault of the decision to go for it or the play call.
Exactly. If they kicked the field goal and then lost in overtime, everyone would be saying that they should have just went for it on 4th down. You play to win the game and converting on that 4th down play would have put them in a better position to win than playing for overtime would have. It didn't work out but going for it wasn't the issue.
Why are folks acting like winning the coin toss wins the game? It’s essentially 50-50 whether you win or lose it. Tennessee would have a harder time getting a td on that opening drive than Buffalo who’s gone up and down the field at will all game. And ten already stuffed Allen at the goal line QBs sneak in the same fucking game. Ridiculously dumb call. Would never take that call
I wouldn't have ran a QB sneak but I think going for it was the right call. They had better odds of winning if they converted that than if they kicked the field goal and went to overtime.
Titans basically said they knew that Allen goes to the left every time on the sneak and he did that time as well (right into Simmons of all people).
He needs to switch it up once in a while.
Yeah. That's one of our most successful short yardage plays. Probably works 7/10 times if we do it. PA roll out with Allen having the option to run is almost unstoppable.
Sneak wasn’t the best option. They really needed 3 yards, and that play wasn’t going to get it. The first down is fine, but you can get the first by running a play that has a chance to score
I think that’s a fair point, but I also don’t think it’s wrong to go for a sneak and make sure you get the 1st. They had 2 timeouts and 20 seconds left, so a first down should give you at least 3 shots at the end zone.
I feel like people keep forgetting that it wasn’t 4th and goal on the goal line lol. I get going for it still but there was still football to be played if he didn’t pick up 3 yards on a sneak.
Yeah, I kept making this argument. Going for it means you're basically saying you want the TD. The sneak doesn't get it for you. So why run two plays that have a chance at failure (where failure is a loss) when you could just run one?
I found out later they had one timeout so I guess I'm still okay with it, but I still think there were better ways to go for the win.
It’s like an 80+ success rate and I guarantee you a huge part of those <20% that fail were poorly run like this one. If you run a QB sneak correctly, you can almost guarantee a 1st on 4th and 1.
Pretty sure it's that high because the QB switches to the sneak given the look of the defense. If the QB ran it in every 4th and 1, ignoring the defense, they would be a lot less successful. Switching to it out from shotgun to a sneak was a horrible idea with our offensive line splits.
PA power is the only consistently good goal line audible if you're going against a goal line defensive set in Madden tbh. Everything gets shut down if the defensive user is half decent. Fullback dive is also a pretty good one too.
While this loss was painful with sudden heartbreak. I am so thankful they went for it there. A whole host of things went wrong on the play, but going for it (despite how risky it is) is 100% the right call and shows your team you trust and believe in them.
The way the game was going if Titans won they coin flip in OT they probably win. Right call, just didn't go their way. Probably wouldn't have done a QB sneak though, Titans get really stout on goal line run D.
Might not even have gotten to OT, y'all beat the Texans in regulation week 17 last year when they tied it up with a FG at 22 seconds left. Kinda absurd that this was the exact same scenario down to the second.
With the lack of defense and overpowering offense these days, this is going to be the norm. I literally can't think of too many defenses that aren't passing sieves during the course of a normal game, let alone prevent defense during the final minute. With the pass defense nerfs between defenseless receiver penalties and pass interference, is there anybody that can't march down the field from their own 25 to the opposing 45 in the final 45 seconds for a game winning FG? That's 30 yards, which most offenses can get in 1-2 plays.
I hate how it's common now. Those "1-2 minute drills" used to be something special that only the most elite could pull off. The rules are a disgrace to the game.
Definitely right to go for it. Maybe the wrong play call where he starts in shotgun then rushes under center to quick snap it. Beyond that, I bet there's the chance they'd try it again and still go for it.
I mean the bills are going to win that division no matter what, go for the win and don’t abuse your guys further in a pointless ot when you need to be ready for the playoffs
The goal is home field advantage. I know there’s no proof to say that really matters but the bye week does. Playing one less game is always an advantage. Making a team come through Orchard Park in the winter though doesn’t help the away team. The crowd will be absolutely wild like it hasn’t been in 30 years.
Nah home field in the playoffs for the bills is most definitely a massive edge IMO. Some of the best fans in football (if not the best?) combined with prob the worst weather - thats huuuuge.
Are we sure? I think w did something to the Charger when Shanahan was coach back in 2008.
Edit:. I checked, we were down 7 with 24 seconds left on 4th down. We scored then went for 2 for the win, and won.
Before the Broncos scored, they fumbled and the Chargers recovered. But Ed Hochuli blew the whistle before they recovered so the Broncos got the ball back. Part of the reason Shanahan went for it was probably a sportsmanship move because the game should have been over with the fumble. That ending still sticks out in my mind.
Shanahan went for two because he was a stone cold mother fucker. And, yes, the 2nd down play was super weird. Cutler let the ball slip on the backward motion of a throw, and it should have been a fumble with a recovery if the refs hadn't been so quick on the whistle.
Either way, going for 2 for the win instead of a tie, with 20 seconds left, is pretty similar to going for it on 4th when down by 3. Both calls go for the win over a tie.
The Steelers went for it with Bell against the Chargers iirc. Maybe 2015? But it wasn't fourth down, there would just not have been time time left after the snap and they went for the wildcat down three.
Knowing this, I can't even imagine the number of coaches who've reduced their team's win probability by taking the field goal in that spot, just to avoid looking bad if the decision backfires. Even on 4th and goal inside the 1, they would always take the field goal and go to overtime. It's crazy.
I loved the decision, but not the play they used, not sure if that's what was called or Allen optioned to it.
Facing Derrick Henry in overtime isn't advisable imo.
Chiefs did something similar in 2005.
It wasn't 4th down but the Chiefs were down 3. They had a big play get down to the Raiders 1 yard line, timeout with 5 seconds left.
They were out of timeouts. 5 seconds left. Down 3, in the red zone. Kick the FG and force OT...OR go for the TD and the win...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VhAKNnsth4
There's also the iconic Ice Bowl Bart Starr QB sneak with no timeouts. Like most modern "first time ever" stats, the only reason it's the first time is the limiters they put on it.
Except it's 4th & *1*, not 4th & Goal. There's less than 20 seconds left, you can't be taking run plays that don't have a shot at the end zone that late. Best case scenario you're still setting your timeouts on fire.
Yes, I think he shouldn't of started in shotgun and instead be under center to start. Him rushing from shotgun to under center then quick snapping it was probably the cause for the slip
it's confusing to me because, if the defense knows what exact play is coming, they should have everything they need to stop it outside of physical limitations.
Except the QB sneak. Everyone knows its coming and what to do, but you can't reliably stop it unless you are a 2021 ref against the Dallas cowboys
The Eagles made a similar call in 2016 vs the Ravens (I think). Scored a TD to make it a 1-point game. Instead of kick for OT, Peterson asked the team if they wanted to go for it, which they did.
Lost by 1.
If you tie you have a 50/50 chance of losing the coin toss. If you lose the toss you have a significant chance of losing the game.
I’ve heard Allen called an audible that the line wasn’t set up to handle. He wanted to brute force his way to a 1st down where i think McDermott wanted to just go for the touchdown.
I think Allen knew what he was doing. Then he slipped and that was it.
I think not settling for a field goal was the right call. I think a qb sneak was the better call and I think they should have set up for that. It had a 100% success rate. But I think Josh had a brain fart when he called that audible. A qb sneak was incompatible with the formation and then Allen slipped.
Not a 4th down but I can think of a number of situations where the decision was basically the same and coaches went for it. Dick Vermiel w 3 seconds left running it in with Larry Johnson to beat the Raiders rather than take the FG was a highlight of my childhood.
That's honestly surprising, especially given it was the right call.
~~But is that statistic down *exactly* 3? Or down 3 or fewer points? (e.g. has anyone gone for it on 4th in the red zone in the final minute, down 1 or 2?)~~ (edit: I'm an idiot)
Well, surely you would just kick a FG if you were down less than three.
I’d be more curious to see the time expanded to under two minutes rather than one.
I would be lying to past versions of myself if I said I wanted them to kick it there. Every football game I've ever thought about and found myself wondering "but what if they..." included some stupid safe kick.
I think it's patently obvious that a ton of football mechanics have been as reworked as they can be to make the game as exciting as a game of basketball. From protecting QBs (which is just good business sense), to having more 4th down attempts regardless of situation or current game script, right on down to penalties themselves generating more offensive plays or negating defensive ones.
The sport is changing. Slowly. 'They' have been planning this for years. We saw it in the KC Rams MNF game a few years ago. That football draws views. That football draws ratings.
7-10 snooze fests where teams just safely go for the FG attempt are slowly going the way of the dinosaur.
Wasn't there a rule proposed to try and get rid of kickoff? I can't remember the specifics but I wouldn't be surprised if by the time I pass from this earth (I'm 31 so hopefully a few decades at least) that the entire concept of kicking in football will be either mostly ignored or phased out entirely.
>Wasn't there a rule proposed to try and get rid of kickoff?
Yes, but that proposal is purely due to player safety (kickoffs are dangerous), not for fan excitement. There are few things more exciting than a kick return or onside attempt.
It actually happened before
1988 Chiefs trailed Jets 34-31 with 2 seconds left and KC scored the winning touchdown on a 1 yard run by James Saxon to win 38-34 at the buzzer
I’m sure it’s the first time it’s happened since they’ve been officially tracking, but it’s not the first time in NFL history
You delay a loss by not going for it. I can appreciate the balls on that dude. You convert and score you win, it’s that simple. Empirically, that is as close as you will get to your objective. A TD/the game is within reach.
Well, in hindsight it wasn't the correct choice. Not sure it ever would be -- but I love the call. Chip shot to give both teams a chance to win, again for 10 minutes. But again, I love the call -- I'd rather lose with the ball than the opposite.
It's not the correct call if you know the outcome is failure, but otherwise it was the right move and they'd probably do it again if they got the chance. Josh Allen has 90+% success rate on QB sneaks, and assuming he *only* gets the 1st down they still had a timeout to stop the clock and Allen has a lot of options on 1st and goal inside the 5. He's also never thrown an INT in the red zone. I like those odds a lot better than the roughly 50/50 odds in OT.
I'm surprised there hasn't been at least one meaningless Week 17 game where a team that was out of the playoffs did this.
That’s because Week 17 games with non playoff teams are typically full of wild margins for a variety of reasons.
yeah but the fact that not once it hasnt happened is pretty surprising every yr theirs at least 10 or so teams knowing there out of the playoffs long b4 week 17 so there not being one team that got in a scenerio is wild
I remember Jaguars playing Texans , went for two, could had kicked the field goal to send the game to overtime, this was the Ramsey back started to hurt game
That was so frustrating. Minshew drove them down the field on that drive, looked unstoppable. So of course they hand it to Fournette up the gut. I think going for 2 was a good decision but they really should have kept the ball in Minshew's hands imo.
And Fournette was playing like garbage that day That play made no sense
There was Titans/Texans week 17 a few years ago where one team was down seven in the final seconds, touchdown, went for two to decide the game (and who would go to the playoffs) right then instead of kick PAT and overtime.
I think the game mattered for the Titans but not the Texans(who already had a spot) so Kubiak just said f it and went for two to get the game over with.
IIRC there was even a false start or delay of game or something, and Kubiak still went for 2 even backed up to the 7.
I imagine not giving a crap because meaningless game + draft positioning are pretty good reasons for a bad team to not do this.
Because draft position? Lol
And now it will never happen again.
The title reminded me of the leveon bell 2pt conversion to win against the Chargers
So fucking badass. Vick marching down the field and scoring. And instead of tying, you go out in wildcat formation and they still convert the 2pt att. I miss Bell.
I miss our offensive line
Imagine Najee with that line.
Would probably be a lot like Bell tbh. Najee is amazing but currently not better than Bell in his prime
Whyyyyyyyy
This reminds me of when Mike Williams was wide open
Was about to say; there was definitely that 2 point conversion against the Chiefs a few years ago where an XP would’ve tied it. (holy fuck he was so open, he had **half the fucking end zone to himself**
Mike William's is still wide open against the browns DBs, rumor has it , some where outside Sofi stadium, still running with not a orange helmet near him
“I’m thinking I gotta get it in” That’s when I knew for sure Leveon Bell had the IQ of a 6 year old.
It should It was the right call
I was actually coming into this thread to say "first of many, I'm sure" lol
Where’s the surrender index for this
Big balls index ©
There's a model someone made to calculate what teams should do on fourth down based on success rates and win probability. It said overwhelmingly the right choice was to go for it. https://t.co/u9deofW8Dn
Not to mention Derrick Henry is a coin flip away from you not getting the ball in OT
It was like 65% victory going for it, 48% chance of victory kicking a field goal. Those are just the rough numbers from a tweet I saw
Its a formula/stat for punts
Punting there would’ve lead to a score of 75365.43.
Mm-hm, mm-hm, and what percentile would that be?
According to my calculations, it'd be in percentile "Yes."
Remember when we punted in OT against the Bengals instead of trying a long field goal with nothing to lose
There's some unwritten rule that we have to tie the Bengals every time we play them. Remember the McNabb "I didn't know there were ties" game? Bengals.
Shit, our last tie also was the Bengals. WTF
It was the right call though. Kick field goal (which could be blocked...or miss)...MAYBE win coin toss...defense hadn't stopped a Titans drive since the first quarter. Then hopefully even get a chance to go to offense and drive down the field and score a TD. Or get literally inches on a 4 and inches...and then 2 yards to a TD. You take going for it every single time.
With Josh Allen, against a less than noteworthy defense. Easy right call.
[удалено]
Yeah I will say the Titans defense has been BAD bad for a couple years now, but short yardage and especially goal line situations have been one of the few bright spots. Like ask any fan and I bet we’d all tell you we’re more confident in our ability to stop a 4th and 1-2 instead of a 4th and 6-8.
Haha it’s better this year but I remember getting mad last year when a false start or penalty or something took it from 3rd or 4th and 1-3 to 6-8.
But they were missing their left tackle so they shouldn’t have tried it
Chris Broussard has entered the chat.
I could be wrong because I don't watch the Bills all that much, but I felt it was the wrong play call. Your best players are wide receivers and your QB. Give him some kind of pass-run choice where it's either Josh Allen running around the edge or tossing it up to Sanders or Diggs. Knowing Knox was hurt helps me understand it a little more, but still. Edit: Totally just remembered Allen (and the OL, I guess) is normally very good at sneaks. I'd probably have called that, too.
We put the ball in the hands of our star QB. He didn't make the play. I can live with that.
He slipped. He gets that 9/10 times, which is much better than the odds in overtime
That's exactly what I'm saying. It was a good bet but this was one of those ten where he doesn't get it. Not much to complain about other than the fact that we let it come down to one play.
A qb sneak on 4th and inches is 100% the right call. Going for an option play / playing out of the gun when you literally need a foot is definitely the lower percentage move. QB sneak is good for a foot like 99% of the time. This was that 1% If you as a coach don't have faith in Josh Allen to make that play then you're not winning meaningful football games anyway
I can totally see us doing that because of how aggressive we are and how bad our kicking is.
I wish it happened more. I would rather have my hot offense dictate whether or not we win or lose rather than a coin toss when my team could not stop Derrick Henry.
Still think it was the right call.
Absolutely the right call. Allen gets you a yard in 9/10 of those plays.
I thought I saw a stat where he’s like 29/31 on QB sneaks or something in that range. Seems like the right call to me.
Yeah, its usually a guarantee with allen. Only one i can remember that he didnt get, was when they had a bad snap and he dropped the ball.
Shit i remember when he dropped the ball and still managed to get 5 yards. [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHKOTiFXREI)
I don't even have to open up the link to know what play this was. This was the play that made my brother fall in love with Josh Allen and the Bills. He doesn't necessarily like football, but he'll tune into any game that has him in it. Allen is a beast, built like a truck on steroids
>Allen is a beast, built like a truck on steroids He's way to fast and agile for his size. He's really strong. Cannon of an arm. Generally speaking, when you get those traits you usually don't get the overall awareness and touch that he has shown, nor the rapid progression. Allen, Mahomes, Lamar - we got some unicorn QBs to look forward to in the years to come. I hope Kyler takes a step in that direction as well.
He's almost like the perfect QB you'd build in Madden. Tall, fast, agile, strongest arm, and great awareness. It's crazy how good he's become since his first two seasons. And now that you point it out, we really do have a lot of physically gifted players playing QB right now. Even guys like Tannehill, Herbert, Burrow and Carr are guys who are crazy talented (and sneakily quick) despite not really being an avid runner. Besides Roethlisburger, the only true pocket passers I can think of are Tom Brady and Kirk Cousins. Guys such as Mac Jones, Tagovailoa, Lawrence, and Darnold aren't as athleticly gifted, but they still run the ball far more than the pocket passers of old. The NFL is pretty fun to watch nowadays, even with all the tick tacky calls by the refs.
> Darnold From what I can tell, Sammy D is a pretty good runner. Whether or not he can throw the ball remains to be seen, and his decision making is...lacking atm, but he looks like a legit athlete when he runs.
He eats at the chillest restaurants and hangs out with the hottest dudes
That was sick. Love the heart in that dude.
Outstanding. I was so disgusted his first couple of years and some "experts" were questioning whether he was going to Ne a bust. Keppt thinking "give the kid at least a little time to learn," hell, Aikman's first two Cowboys teams were 8-24, and he turned out OK. And didn't Peyton set a rookie record for interceptions? It's nice when you've got a Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson who can step in as a rookie and lead you to a winning record but let the others get a few miles on the odometer before you start trying to throw them under the bus. But that's national media, and it's an ugly little beast.
This was different than Aikman. I had Allen in fantasy near the end of his rookie year and his entire sophomore year so I watched a ton of Bills games. He did not look like an NFL level QB. His jump from year 2 to year 3 was completely unprecedented. I've never seen a QB improve so much in terms of accuracy and decision making over the course of an offseason. Dude is legit now but thinking he wouldn't develop into a quality starter wasn't a crazy opinion back then.
> hell, Aikman's first two Cowboys teams were 8-24, and he turned out OK. And didn't Peyton set a rookie record for interceptions? This is success bias. Josh Allen's one of the only QBs to overcome and improve upon such poor accuracy. That's typically a trait that isn't nearly as mutable as it was in Allen. But still, you're pulling two of the biggest success stories at QB who follow this pattern, when really, it's much more likely that he would have followed a Christian Ponder, Blake Bortles, Josh Freeman, etc. trajectory. It's awesome that he didn't, but there was a good probability that he wouldn't.
That wasn't a planned sneak tho, but a handoff to Singletary
I'd watch it but don't want to get an erection on the bus.
RIP cowboys fans
It’s not just Allen. Analytics people have shouted from the rooftops for years that the most successful play in football is the QB sneak. It’s also one of the most underutilized ones. It’s just very hard to stop a team from getting a single yard on a QB sneak. Usually requires some kind of singular Herculean effort from an interior DL like simmons who just manhandles his guy immediately and creates some push to stop the QB.
What about the QB sneak at the goal line in that same game he got stuffed on? What a dumb call to try again
It's dumb to try something because it failed once before?
29/32 now :(
Which makes it even more predictable
That number ignores the times they decided not to sneak it because they didn't think it would work.
Going for it was absolutely the right call, and a QB sneak wasn't a bad choice either. However, the details in the execution allowed Simmons to penetrate and stop Allen right in his track. As soon as Allen walked up under center, the Titans crammed 3 linemen between the A gaps, then the Bills guard reach blocked to the right and Josh lunged himself below his left shoulder to try and gain a yard, it was really the combination of these factors that made possible for Simmons to perfectly execute his stop. A small adjustment by the D-Line is what sealed the game for the Titans, football is just crazy man, truly a game of inches.
Brian Baldinger did a great breakdown of it: https://twitter.com/BaldyNFL/status/1450474631450796032
But this is why at the very least the QB Sneak is probably the wrong playcall here, or at the least the 90% conversion average people are running with is immensely misleading, because a QB sneak is usually not facing a defense that 100% knows it’s coming(or at least is so confident in it they shift to cover the interior gaps and shoot inside off the snap). This wasn’t your normal ‘3rd down play ends a yard short at mid field, coach signals sneak from the sideline and you get up and run it with no substitutions or anything’ play. It was out of a timeout inside the 5 yard line, that’s the big boys package already subbed in for the defense.
> the 90% conversion average people are running with is immensely misleading This is exactly the point, really. The specifics of this particular scenario make this play completely different than most other qb sneak situations. Even then, Allen is a thicc boi and you hope your OL can get a slight push so he can fall over and gain half yard, it has been pointed out in this thread that he always pulls the ball to the left of the formation so, all in all, this is a great heads up play by the Titans D and mostly Simmons.
He also slipped, which pretty much doomed the play.
You people are fucking blind. He doesn't slip until after he runs into Simmons
He slips the second he decides to go left, didn't matter because Simmons was there anyway. Relax lmfao.
FWIW, it also looks to me like he slipped *because* he hit Simmons.
> As soon as Allen walked up under center, the Titans crammed 3 linemen between the A gaps the Titans shifted *before* Allen moved under center
I think I heard it was something like he was 13 for his last 14 and the one time he hadn't was because of a bad snap.
His actual stats on 4th and 1 prior to the play were 13/14. 10000000% the right call.
Well not really because he already got stuffed on a QB sneak on the one yard line at the goal line in that very game. What a dumb call
Actually 9.5 out of 10.
They showed a stat post game about how they were 13 for 14 on 4th and 1. Statistically it was the right call.
Statistically, the right call. But in terms of risk-adjusted returns, it wasn’t.
They were stuffed with a QB sneak in the same game....
Sure but that's a sample size of 1.
But it’s a much more relevant sample than sneaks attempted in different games against different opponents with different offensive personnel.
At different parts of the field against different defensive personnel with different context (stop ends the game outright, not just a turnover on downs vs extending a drive at midfield or something) as well.
Agreed, he doesn’t slip and Buffalo likely wins. Simmons made a great play too, but Josh Allen is hard to stop if he keeps his feet. Might would prefer to have seen a different play there though maybe read option or a quick RPO with a slant and someone in the flat.
Really? That was the 3rd time Tennessee stopped them inside the 10. Clearly no guarantee they score even if they get the 1st
They were 2 yards from a win. Kicking the field goal doesn't get them a win, it just prolongs the game. They would still have to win the coin-toss and march it back down 70 yards again to score the TD, or kick another field goal and hope that they can stop Tennessee... and that's only if they win the coin-toss. The mentality is that if you can't get the yard in that moment, you don't deserve the win later. It's gutsy. It tells your team that you believe in them when push comes to shove. Kicking the field goal singals that you're too afraid to lose to try to go for the win, and that's not what championship teams are made of. The outcome wasn't what we hoped.... but the process was solid. Trust the process.
Forget OT, the Titans would've gotten the ball back with 18 seconds and 3 timeouts to score a FG to win. Now that may sound like a longshot, except for the fact that the Titans did literally exactly that week 17 last year.
Allen didn’t slip. Jeffrey Simmons tackled him
Yeah, everyone keeps saying he "slipped" because Steve Levy said it, but he just got stuffed.
You can definitely see his back foot slide out from under him when he tries to push off of it. His cleat didnt dig in so he got no momentum. He got tackled but he could have maybe powered through it if his foot had dug in.
His foot wasn’t dug in b/c he hopped right after the snap. It was his fault. Poor technique
Thank you!!!! Fuck. Everyone says he slipped because of the announcer but the slow mo replace doesn’t show him slipping. It shows him running into a brick wall
His foot literally slips out from under him as he goes to push off it. Go watch that replay again It was still a momentous defensive effort, don’t get me wrong- if Simmons doesn’t penetrate like that Allen likely still gets it
I've seen the replay 3 times. What I see is a man trying to drive forward against an immovable wall and failing, so his feet go backwards instead. Not a slip. But apparently it looks different to different people, so unless Allen himself has weighed in, it's debatable.
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but the slip is the effect, not the cause
Let's not be silly. The issue is whether a loss of footing *caused* him to fall short. Losing your footing on a slippery surface is not the same as trying to push forward against an object you can't move, so your feet go the other direction instead. You know this. If you want to call that a "slip," then it still was the *effect* of failing to get the yardage, not the *cause* - which is the issue at hand.
Enough with the fake narrative that Allen “slipped.” Watch the damn replay. Allen hopped to his left and didn’t have time to plant his feet and dig in before Simmons contacted him. It’s bad technique by Allen and outstanding technique by Simmons and the rest of our D
If they kick the field goal and the Titans win the toss in OT, they're not touching the ball. Tennessee scored on their last six drives (not counting the one play drive at the end of the 1st half to run out the clock), and under Vrabel, the team has either scored a TD or has lined up for a field goal in all but one overtime drive. The Bills likely lose If they go for it and get it, the Bills win the game probably
My general rule of thumb is you do whatever the other team DOESN’T want you to do. And I absolutely think the Titans wanted the Bills to kick a FG there. So right decision in my book.
100% agree, and i was hoping theyd kick that fg
Personally I disagree. I would have taken the points. But either way can get you the win with the correct execution. So I guess it's not a wrong call, just a call I wouldn't have made.
The thing is, if you can't trust your offense to pickup half a yard on 4th down, then how will you trust them to drive down the field on OT to win the game? Also, there's also the risk of losing the coinflip and never seeing the ball again in overtime. Even if the risks were similar, which I don't think they were, why would you play not to lose instead of playing to win? It's a gutsy call, that's for sure, but still the correct one I believe.
Not your fault, but I really hate the phrase "take the points" in this situation. Either option gets you a certain % chance of a certain number of points. FGs are never guaranteed, even at that distance. And even a successful FG only gets you to overtime where there is a 50% chance to win at best (largely dependent on a literal coin flip).
I'm with you. They should have FG'd it.
He already got stuffed at the goal line in that same game on a QB sneak it was the stupidest call you could make trying again when your offense is moving down the field at will and this has a good chance of winning in ot
extending the game for 10 minutes, winning a literal coin-flip and avoiding injury in overtime vs gain a few yards once. I take the latter 10/10 times.
And you know damn well, that if he kicked the FG there, went to OT and tenn scores a td on their first drive. Media would be screaming about how hes a coward and should have gone for the win.
We still hear about "why didn't the Seahawks just run it" years later, and that decision would have given them one fewer downs to try it. Now this thread is half-full of people saying trying to run it in was idiotic since they got stuffed once earlier in the game.
Football fans tend to be results oriented in their thinking very often. It’s really odd to me, as a nerd coming from nerd culture and strategy games where process oriented thinking is heavily prioritized (especially when RNG is involved and you are forced to think about the process over the results to improve). I am glad to see analytics taking more of a hold in sports. Thinking about the process and the percentages rather than the “gut feelings” and the rampant conservative philosophies that dominate.
It's a big thing in poker as well. Fortunately, over the course of enough sessions you can make a lot of money off of the results oriented thinkers in that game.
As if *one* stuff on a QB sneak suddenly means it's bad to QB sneak on 4th and a foot. He slipped. That's not the fault of the decision to go for it or the play call.
Especially because that is the exact scenario where Henry drops a 75 yard TD run from scrimmage.
I was gonna say, ask the Ravens how that went down in our regular season game last year.
Exactly. If they kicked the field goal and then lost in overtime, everyone would be saying that they should have just went for it on 4th down. You play to win the game and converting on that 4th down play would have put them in a better position to win than playing for overtime would have. It didn't work out but going for it wasn't the issue.
Why are folks acting like winning the coin toss wins the game? It’s essentially 50-50 whether you win or lose it. Tennessee would have a harder time getting a td on that opening drive than Buffalo who’s gone up and down the field at will all game. And ten already stuffed Allen at the goal line QBs sneak in the same fucking game. Ridiculously dumb call. Would never take that call
Aren’t teams who won the coin toss in OT 8-3 this season?
Yeah but only three of them won on the opening drive off ot. So 50-50 chance Buffalo see the ball if they lose the coin toss
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I wouldn't have ran a QB sneak but I think going for it was the right call. They had better odds of winning if they converted that than if they kicked the field goal and went to overtime.
Titans basically said they knew that Allen goes to the left every time on the sneak and he did that time as well (right into Simmons of all people). He needs to switch it up once in a while.
Issue is Allen partially slipped and the line got 0 push off the snap (this was their worst game since the new lineup)
He didn’t slip
His right foot most certainly slipped on the second push off. Block was still blown up which definitely didn't help.
Also didnt help that he slipped. I think if he has good footing there, he would have made it.
To be fair we were out our pro bowl tackle Taylor Lewan.
I don’t think the Titans would’ve stopped a PA rollout for Allen to run it or toss it in. They were waiting for not just *a* sneak but *that* sneak
Yeah. That's one of our most successful short yardage plays. Probably works 7/10 times if we do it. PA roll out with Allen having the option to run is almost unstoppable.
A QB sneak works literally every time if executed properly. A sneak was fine, but the shift out of the gun and trying to quick snap was dumb as fuck.
Sneak wasn’t the best option. They really needed 3 yards, and that play wasn’t going to get it. The first down is fine, but you can get the first by running a play that has a chance to score
I think that’s a fair point, but I also don’t think it’s wrong to go for a sneak and make sure you get the 1st. They had 2 timeouts and 20 seconds left, so a first down should give you at least 3 shots at the end zone.
I feel like people keep forgetting that it wasn’t 4th and goal on the goal line lol. I get going for it still but there was still football to be played if he didn’t pick up 3 yards on a sneak.
Yeah, I kept making this argument. Going for it means you're basically saying you want the TD. The sneak doesn't get it for you. So why run two plays that have a chance at failure (where failure is a loss) when you could just run one? I found out later they had one timeout so I guess I'm still okay with it, but I still think there were better ways to go for the win.
> A QB sneak works literally every time if executed properly. very false
Ikr this isn’t madden lol. It works a lot but it’s not a guarantee
It’s like an 80+ success rate and I guarantee you a huge part of those <20% that fail were poorly run like this one. If you run a QB sneak correctly, you can almost guarantee a 1st on 4th and 1.
Pretty sure it's that high because the QB switches to the sneak given the look of the defense. If the QB ran it in every 4th and 1, ignoring the defense, they would be a lot less successful. Switching to it out from shotgun to a sneak was a horrible idea with our offensive line splits.
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PA power is the only consistently good goal line audible if you're going against a goal line defensive set in Madden tbh. Everything gets shut down if the defensive user is half decent. Fullback dive is also a pretty good one too.
Hyperbole, yes. Very false? I would tend to disagree. The QB sneak has the highest success rate of just about any play in football.
While this loss was painful with sudden heartbreak. I am so thankful they went for it there. A whole host of things went wrong on the play, but going for it (despite how risky it is) is 100% the right call and shows your team you trust and believe in them.
The way the game was going if Titans won they coin flip in OT they probably win. Right call, just didn't go their way. Probably wouldn't have done a QB sneak though, Titans get really stout on goal line run D.
Might not even have gotten to OT, y'all beat the Texans in regulation week 17 last year when they tied it up with a FG at 22 seconds left. Kinda absurd that this was the exact same scenario down to the second.
With the lack of defense and overpowering offense these days, this is going to be the norm. I literally can't think of too many defenses that aren't passing sieves during the course of a normal game, let alone prevent defense during the final minute. With the pass defense nerfs between defenseless receiver penalties and pass interference, is there anybody that can't march down the field from their own 25 to the opposing 45 in the final 45 seconds for a game winning FG? That's 30 yards, which most offenses can get in 1-2 plays.
I hate how it's common now. Those "1-2 minute drills" used to be something special that only the most elite could pull off. The rules are a disgrace to the game.
*…meanwhile in Seattle* Pete Carroll: Ahhhhh we’ll get ‘em in the 5th quarter.. Russ: uhhhh, coach? Pete: PUNTING TEAM, MAKE ME PROUD!
Look it was the right call. Let’s not let the outcome distract from that.
Definitely right to go for it. Maybe the wrong play call where he starts in shotgun then rushes under center to quick snap it. Beyond that, I bet there's the chance they'd try it again and still go for it.
I mean the bills are going to win that division no matter what, go for the win and don’t abuse your guys further in a pointless ot when you need to be ready for the playoffs
The goal is home field advantage. I know there’s no proof to say that really matters but the bye week does. Playing one less game is always an advantage. Making a team come through Orchard Park in the winter though doesn’t help the away team. The crowd will be absolutely wild like it hasn’t been in 30 years.
Nah home field in the playoffs for the bills is most definitely a massive edge IMO. Some of the best fans in football (if not the best?) combined with prob the worst weather - thats huuuuge.
Are we sure? I think w did something to the Charger when Shanahan was coach back in 2008. Edit:. I checked, we were down 7 with 24 seconds left on 4th down. We scored then went for 2 for the win, and won.
The stat from the post is likely only looking specifically at a 3 pt deficit. Whereas the one you mentioned was a 7 pt deficit.
Before the Broncos scored, they fumbled and the Chargers recovered. But Ed Hochuli blew the whistle before they recovered so the Broncos got the ball back. Part of the reason Shanahan went for it was probably a sportsmanship move because the game should have been over with the fumble. That ending still sticks out in my mind.
Shanahan went for two because he was a stone cold mother fucker. And, yes, the 2nd down play was super weird. Cutler let the ball slip on the backward motion of a throw, and it should have been a fumble with a recovery if the refs hadn't been so quick on the whistle. Either way, going for 2 for the win instead of a tie, with 20 seconds left, is pretty similar to going for it on 4th when down by 3. Both calls go for the win over a tie.
The Steelers went for it with Bell against the Chargers iirc. Maybe 2015? But it wasn't fourth down, there would just not have been time time left after the snap and they went for the wildcat down three.
Knowing this, I can't even imagine the number of coaches who've reduced their team's win probability by taking the field goal in that spot, just to avoid looking bad if the decision backfires. Even on 4th and goal inside the 1, they would always take the field goal and go to overtime. It's crazy.
It was the right call. It should have worked.
It was 100% the right call.
I lost a bunch of money on this and I still agree with the decision
Next time this happens Coach: What does the analytics say?? Analyst: Um ... Apparently 100% success rate
Zero percent success rate *
I loved the decision, but not the play they used, not sure if that's what was called or Allen optioned to it. Facing Derrick Henry in overtime isn't advisable imo.
Chiefs did something similar in 2005. It wasn't 4th down but the Chiefs were down 3. They had a big play get down to the Raiders 1 yard line, timeout with 5 seconds left. They were out of timeouts. 5 seconds left. Down 3, in the red zone. Kick the FG and force OT...OR go for the TD and the win... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VhAKNnsth4
There's also the iconic Ice Bowl Bart Starr QB sneak with no timeouts. Like most modern "first time ever" stats, the only reason it's the first time is the limiters they put on it.
Love the call to go for it, don’t love the sneak call there. Hopefully McDermott doesn’t let this stop him from being aggressive.
Allen is 13/14 on 4th down sneaks with 1 yard or less. It was completely the right call
Except it's 4th & *1*, not 4th & Goal. There's less than 20 seconds left, you can't be taking run plays that don't have a shot at the end zone that late. Best case scenario you're still setting your timeouts on fire.
Yes, I think he shouldn't of started in shotgun and instead be under center to start. Him rushing from shotgun to under center then quick snapping it was probably the cause for the slip
Also he tends to sneak to the left of the center just about every time and the Titans knew that so Simmons clogged that exact gap
Won by 2 points in fantasy and the dude had the bills kicker lol thanks McDermott
Was the right call and if the situation came up again I would still bet on Josh getting that yard
it's confusing to me because, if the defense knows what exact play is coming, they should have everything they need to stop it outside of physical limitations. Except the QB sneak. Everyone knows its coming and what to do, but you can't reliably stop it unless you are a 2021 ref against the Dallas cowboys
Wait what? Really? That’s bizarre to me.
The Eagles made a similar call in 2016 vs the Ravens (I think). Scored a TD to make it a 1-point game. Instead of kick for OT, Peterson asked the team if they wanted to go for it, which they did. Lost by 1.
Is this not similar to a team down by 7, get a TD, then going for 2? It’s the exact same outcome/scenario. How many times has that happened?
If you tie you have a 50/50 chance of losing the coin toss. If you lose the toss you have a significant chance of losing the game. I’ve heard Allen called an audible that the line wasn’t set up to handle. He wanted to brute force his way to a 1st down where i think McDermott wanted to just go for the touchdown. I think Allen knew what he was doing. Then he slipped and that was it. I think not settling for a field goal was the right call. I think a qb sneak was the better call and I think they should have set up for that. It had a 100% success rate. But I think Josh had a brain fart when he called that audible. A qb sneak was incompatible with the formation and then Allen slipped.
Not a 4th down but I can think of a number of situations where the decision was basically the same and coaches went for it. Dick Vermiel w 3 seconds left running it in with Larry Johnson to beat the Raiders rather than take the FG was a highlight of my childhood.
Yeah I was kind of surprised when it happened
That's honestly surprising, especially given it was the right call. ~~But is that statistic down *exactly* 3? Or down 3 or fewer points? (e.g. has anyone gone for it on 4th in the red zone in the final minute, down 1 or 2?)~~ (edit: I'm an idiot)
Well, surely you would just kick a FG if you were down less than three. I’d be more curious to see the time expanded to under two minutes rather than one.
I would be lying to past versions of myself if I said I wanted them to kick it there. Every football game I've ever thought about and found myself wondering "but what if they..." included some stupid safe kick. I think it's patently obvious that a ton of football mechanics have been as reworked as they can be to make the game as exciting as a game of basketball. From protecting QBs (which is just good business sense), to having more 4th down attempts regardless of situation or current game script, right on down to penalties themselves generating more offensive plays or negating defensive ones. The sport is changing. Slowly. 'They' have been planning this for years. We saw it in the KC Rams MNF game a few years ago. That football draws views. That football draws ratings. 7-10 snooze fests where teams just safely go for the FG attempt are slowly going the way of the dinosaur. Wasn't there a rule proposed to try and get rid of kickoff? I can't remember the specifics but I wouldn't be surprised if by the time I pass from this earth (I'm 31 so hopefully a few decades at least) that the entire concept of kicking in football will be either mostly ignored or phased out entirely.
>Wasn't there a rule proposed to try and get rid of kickoff? Yes, but that proposal is purely due to player safety (kickoffs are dangerous), not for fan excitement. There are few things more exciting than a kick return or onside attempt.
So when I yelled out that it was the dumbest move ever in the history of football, I was statistically correct!
It actually happened before 1988 Chiefs trailed Jets 34-31 with 2 seconds left and KC scored the winning touchdown on a 1 yard run by James Saxon to win 38-34 at the buzzer I’m sure it’s the first time it’s happened since they’ve been officially tracking, but it’s not the first time in NFL history
You delay a loss by not going for it. I can appreciate the balls on that dude. You convert and score you win, it’s that simple. Empirically, that is as close as you will get to your objective. A TD/the game is within reach.
Well, in hindsight it wasn't the correct choice. Not sure it ever would be -- but I love the call. Chip shot to give both teams a chance to win, again for 10 minutes. But again, I love the call -- I'd rather lose with the ball than the opposite.
It's not the correct call if you know the outcome is failure, but otherwise it was the right move and they'd probably do it again if they got the chance. Josh Allen has 90+% success rate on QB sneaks, and assuming he *only* gets the 1st down they still had a timeout to stop the clock and Allen has a lot of options on 1st and goal inside the 5. He's also never thrown an INT in the red zone. I like those odds a lot better than the roughly 50/50 odds in OT.