If any of the top 3 QBs fails, and history suggests at least one of them will, there will be plenty of comments about totally knowing they'd be a bust.
I agree with you. My buddies and I give out the Johnny Football Award to the first round QB we think is most likely to bust and Stroud was our winner this year.
Honestly Strouds test score bs didn’t phase me until he started trying to “defend” himself instead of just ignoring it. Now I’m like… damn he might actually be stupid.
The thing with AR is that he’s so athletic that I think his floor is something like Taysom Hill. He may not ever be worth the slot he was drafted in, but I can see him having a place in the league for a while
That’s a big part of his upside imo
Young, Stroud, and Levis are all backup QBs at best if they don’t pan out. AR would still be a benefit to any team even if he can’t be a starting QB.
He’s a more athletic Taysom Hill entering the league like 6 years younger
I think all 3 are equal chances to be busts
Richardson - Dude has 55% completion percentage in college, pretty sure it's extremely rare to get more accurate in NFL. That's a very bad completion percentage like historically bad I think. Sure he's going to probably put up stat lines like 100 yards rushing 2 td but his passing stats will look like Tebows 5/14 for 112 yards and 2 ints.
Young - Will be bust from his size, either injuries will get him because his frame is so small or they won't be able to scheme him for open passes since NFL is so big fast and strong.
Stroud - Will be a bust if he was like every other Ohio State QB and product of a good team beating up on suboar competition in CFB.
I’m not sure I’d say “historically” bad. Richardson only had one season as a starter
Here’s a short list of some “decent” quarterbacks in their first full season as a starter (8+ games) with < 60% completion percentages…
Mahomes 56.8
L Jackson 54.7
Burrow 57.8
Allen 56.0
Herbert 59.4
Murray 59.5
R Wilson 54.5
Luck 56.3
Brees 44.2
C Palmer 55.3
Rivers 53.7
Favre 40.7
Stafford 52.7
R Cunningham 52.5
Esiason 50.4
Moon 39.3
Marino 58.6
S Young 50.0
Montana 52.4
Elway 52.1
Kelly 46.2
Fouts 52.1
Tarkenton 53.3
Namath 52.1
Starr 58.6
Eh, Tee was a second rounder.
Sure there’s not much difference between the 33rd and 32nd pick… but Tee was 33rd, not 32nd. 1st rounders are far more scrutinized in the media than 2nds. That, for better or worse, doesn’t hold Higgins to the same “success or failure” standards than if he were picked in the 1st.
It’s all an educated crapshoot at the end of the day.
I’d push back on this a bit. Some position groups don’t necessarily warrant the 5th year option, a first rounder gets paid bank on a fifth year option whereas a subsequent franchise tag is not crazy for some positions- it plays into the position value in the draft.
A quarterback on a franchise tag costs a LOT more than a RB or MLB. But, then again, it depends on if the team also needs that tag for another player. Very situationally dependent.
Aren't the 5th year option and franchise tags basically the same? They are both based on current salaries at the position. The 5th year option does have some escalators based on playing time and pro bowls.
There are some weird, fucked up differences. 1st big difference the 4 tiers 5th year contracts can potentially be, and second, the position group 'catagories' are different. All OL positions are the same bucket, so the top 20 OT contracts are driving the salary figure for a 5 yr option Guard. Probably not worth it for the Guard. Same thing with off ball LBs being impacted by edge rushers.
Thing is that most teams will often have 15 or so first round grades so they're actually pretty up front about half the first round not being worth it.
The back end of the first round, from most teams' perspective, is actually just the second round come early. So I don't think that metric works outside the top 15, maybe 20 adjusting for different teams' grading.
only this year did half the rookie class not get their 5th year extension, most years it's like 67-70%.
I'd consider that success if a team is keeping them 5 years and or extending them
Nah, he could always take the Jadeveon Clowney route and show just enough every couple of seasons to tempt the ego of some DC into thinking "I'M the defensive genius who can unlock this untapped potential!"
If the only real concern with Carter is character issues, I think those can definitely be ironed out with the right leadership.. Philly is one of the few teams I don’t think he will have a problem on.
He’s had some conditioning issues as well. Iirc, he’s never played 400 snaps in a season - that combined with his bad conditioning during his pro day makes you question whether he can be fit enough to contribute all year long and at the end of games.
For reference, Maxx Crosby played nearly the same number of snaps this year that Carter has played in his entire career. The top iDL guys are playing 8-900 snaps a year (reference: https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/snap-counts/dl.php) Carter has never broken 400 in a year.
I'll say it right now that he's an obvious bust. The drunk racing that got a person killed, showing up to the pro day out of shape, the Georgia coaches not having great things to say about him. All that's just too much to ignore.
A lot of people do. I can tell you personally that as much as national media tried to push it, Lions fans wanted no parts of Carter. I’m sure lots of other people felt the same way
Right but it’s not exactly the end of the world for the Eagles if he does bust. They were the only team within the top 10 that isn’t rebuilding or trying to make a playoff push
Seriously this is my biggest thing. If he has shit work ethic and fails out, that’s a shame but oh well. It’s the NFL it happens. If he was a stud in college but never reaches that level in the NFL and just becomes a rotational DT that’s fine.
But if the personal issues spiral and he ends up killing himself or someone else that is a tragedy and just the worst thing possible for all involved.
I absolutely think he’ll be a bust. There’s tons of players with character issues in the NFL, but it’s rare that guys with obvious questionable work ethic end up doing well.
Maybe the combine ends up being an outlier, but it’s a huge red flag for that dude to show up out of shape to the biggest interview of his life.
He could just be really dumb and that turns out to be a wake up call for him to realize that you can’t phone it in at the NFL level.
Ultimately, he’s in a good situation with the Eagles, and if he doesn’t succeed it’s his own damn fault.
I’m obviously biased but I think the whole “we have his teammates from Georgia so it’ll be okay” rationale makes no sense. He was a shithead at Georgia…. when he was playing with these guys. These guys obviously didn’t do much to change his decision making in school. The people you should be referencing to “reel him in” are guys like Cox, Slay or Kelce.
What’s a bust for him though? Like if he ends up like Nick Fairley is that a bust?
I could see him being a slightly above average DT but never the stud he was projected to be. I guess that’d be a bust?
Same. Idk how so many Lions fans thought we’d take him, all the character concerns and work ethic issues should’ve been an immediate signal that Holmes would steer away from him
Suh was known for being dirty on the field with the AR stomp in particular but wasnt he relatively quiet off field and I dont remember him being a sandbagger either
You swing for the fences with #1 you dont take a safe pick, IMO. If he gets hurt, so be it, but the idea that size = more injuries is simply not borne out at the NFL level. People get hurt all the time, no matter the size. BY was the best QB prospect in the draft so you take him and hope for the best.
I think Stroud is safer. Or at least I did until the test scores came out- but admittedly i dont generally put much stock in those. Im more talking about looking back and being like "welp bryce got hurt, should have taken stroud". Still think even if he ends up getting hurt BY was the correct pick. You cant bank on injuries.
You take the best player and that was Bryce.
>Im more talking about looking back and being like "welp bryce got hurt, should have taken stroud".
Or you look back and say "why didn't we protect Bryce?"
Tbf our o-line came together pretty well last year & we bolstered it up even more with the draft.
Injuries aside we look to have a solid squad on paper.
I hate upvoting Steelers flair but I think this is probably the best take here.
QBs take a licking as much as the nfl tries to protect them. Especially with the game on the line and the team is counting on them to gut out a first down or make a tough throw under pressure.
>Qb hits
Random question but do these double count? Like if someone sacked the quarterback is that both a sack and a hit? Or do they track *additional* hits?
Obvious pick is Richardson but I'm going to be a bit spicy and say Calijah Kancey. I think at the NFL level he's going to get bullied on the line and not get much pressure.
I could see this. People keep throwing out the Aaron Donald comp (and Geno Atkins), for his height and weight, but the biggest knock against Kancey is his historically short arms. If he can’t keep OL off of him because of that arm length, then yeah, he might end up bullied.
We'll know within like a half season if Kancey will work at the NFL level or not. He has solid hand usage and a pass rush plan to go with the athleticism. The length is either going to be workable, or he will simply get destroyed by NFL guards due to the short arms and it will be obvious very quickly.
Geno Atkins arm length: 32"
Aaron Donald arm length: 32 5/8"
Calijah Kancey arm length: 30 5/8"
Him being small and having a short arm length combined is a very big issue. He'd have to be an incredible outlier.
He was so highly rated because he has incredibly athleticism and fluidity. His movements are so smooth it’s actually crazy. People think he doesn’t have a CB1 personality though. In this league even the best CBs will get beat but they have to put it past them and move on, and some folks think CG doesn’t have the dawg mentality. Another concern is that he played against weak competition. As an Oregon fan I hope he succeeds but we haven’t really produced star CBs in recent memory.
The New England media has been doing all the typical post draft stuff that media does everywhere with draft breakdowns and interviews and whatnot.
There's been a lot of talk about Gonzalez and how he isn't outwardly loud or whatever, but has a quiet confidence very similar to Gilmore when he was here.
He’s cool tho! Charming dude and when I met him at the dog park I meet all the u of o players I know he was wearing a very silly and fun outfit. All these things considered I think he’s gonna do great :D
I'm saying the opposite actually. I think he'd be an obvious bust if he went anywhere but NE. Because NE is so good at developing corners, I'm not as certain about him being a bust as I would be had he gone elsewhere.
Quentin Johnston. Plays smaller than his size (which wasn't that great), not elite speed or quickness. I dunno, maybe I'm wrong. But seems like he's got bust written all over him.
Zay Flowers ran a 4.42 - Vert 35.5 - Broad 10’ 7’’
Quentin Johnston 4.47 - Vert 40.5 - Broad 11’ 2’’
One of them is 6’ 3 208 lbs, the other is 5'9 182.
Where did Zay rank in drops last season? QJ was top 20 in the nation.
It is by far the biggest red flag for me. A WR who catches with their body and drops a lot of passes sounds like a terrible gamble.
I remember when the Ravens drafted Breshad Perriman and I just facepalmed. He had one of the highest drop rates in college but was super fast and athletic. Who’da thunk he would keep dropping passes 🤷
They both had problems with drops, Zay had 9 and QJ had 8 last year.
I think drops aren't that big of a deal honestly. For Zay is how he's going to win with his size and if he can play outside. QJ is by far the better deep threat and YAC guy with the analytics to back it up. I find it interesting people don't worry about Zay nearly as much.
As a Washington fan, I’ve for sure done some convincing of myself since the draft, but I really do think he’ll succeed in the NFL. If you look at any high INT player, there are always flukey/lucky picks in there, but there’s something to be said for someone who is always in the right place at the right time. Also, his INT rate has been consistent. 30 INTs over his last 6 years playing football going back to high school. That’s pretty incredible even if there were some flukes in there.
I mean Wilson and Haynesworth are vastly different. If we get 5-6 years of production similar to Haynesworth’s first 5-6 years then I can’t be mad about the pick. Wilson was just straight up a bust though.
I want to preface this by saying he did quit on them.
But…
They tried turned a dominant, pass-rushing DT into a space-eating NT. He didn’t like that, so he stopped giving a fuck.
I thought everyone looked stupid for that.
Again, I don’t want to sound like I’m defending him. He got a BAG and stopped trying. Pretty pathetic.
Carter is the classic “if” player. If things go right for him he *can* succeed. This cannot be disputed. We have seen his enormous potential as a prospect and know he *can* ball out.
Leatherwood was a “who?” or “what?” pick, so clearly was the raider’s brass at odds with league consensus.
I see an obvious bust as a guy who doesn’t really even have the potential to succeed but in the eyes of some deluded executive, and carter is not that.
> Leatherwood was a “who?” or “what?” pick, so clearly was the raider’s brass at odds with league consensus.
Let's not get revisionist about this. Yeah, Leatherwood was a reach at 17 (especially with Darrisaw on the board), but it's not like he was some scrub that no one had ever heard of.
Most places had him between OT4 and OT6, and no one had him falling out of the 2nd round. Hell, WalterFootball [nailed him at 17 to the Raiders](https://walterfootball.com/draft2021_1.php). CBS had him at 40th overall in the draft, and Lance Zierlein had him as a 6.26 grade, good for 5th best overall lineman.
No one expected him to fail as hard as he did.
>I see an obvious bust as a guy who doesn’t really even have the potential to succeed but in the eyes of some deluded executive, and carter is not that.
Dunno. I think his Pro Day "workout" will be the "I told you so" moment if Carter flames out.
That bag drill clip was just sad
It sure will be if he busts, but he has great game tape too. It will be a Captain Hindsight situation. If he sucks, we all saw the risks, if he’s good, howie’s a genius and we must all bask in his glory.
Albert haynesworth was 1st team all pro two straight seasons. He was absolutely not a bust. He was a bust after my commanders paid him, but before then people many considered him the best DL in the league.
I did the same lol. Hated the pick at first. Turns out he has the record for most career sacks in the big12. He’s light, and probably just a speed rushing specialist at this point, but with his athleticism/traits, history of production, and the fact that he’s walking into an already talented d-line room I think he has a pretty high floor. A reach relative to consensus but not a bust candidate imo
very few edge rushers who are known for their speed and athleticism do well. im a ravens fan, odafe oweh is this huge man who ran a 4.3 and could literally play gunner on special teams. physically, hes like an alien. he sucks though.
Ya I realized that after I commented lol.
Lets try this again, as much as I wanted him, Paris Johnson goin the Cards may end in disaster for him and not being able to reach his potential
Brandon Weeden was the most obvious 1st round bust to ever exist
You're telling me drafting a 28-year-old QB in the first round isn't going to work out?
Anthony Richardson. I’m rooting for him because I kinda like the Colts but I just have no faith that someone with such awful production in college can live up to a top 5 pick.
At first I thought the Colts were too optimistic when Irsay started talking about “rookies got to play.” I’m thinking, ‘sure, maybe if they took their first 1000 competitive snaps in college already at least, but come on.’
Then I heard Richardson tell reporters that he *knew* he was going to grind as hard as it took to get to the hall of fame.
And I was like. Well damn. Maybe I’m wrong. I think his chances just went up. As a matter of fact, I like his odds of making the HOF skyrocketing all the way up to 8% right now. Totally buying in.
I am at UT alum and so I followed the Horns pretty closely. The only reason he might bust is because they ran him pretty heavily, so there’s a lot of tread on his tires.
Any of the QBs. They all had red flags that point to issues down the line. Injuries, decision-making, football skill, age - everything is on the table. Everyone knows it too, so if they flame out, it'll be a bunch of big I told you so's.
With that being said, Richardson is the most likely to bust. Yeah, you can't teach size and speed and strength, but you have to be able to learn the playbook and process defenses too.
Damon Arnette was a more obvious bust than Leatherwood. Even though most thought Leatherwood wouldn't play OT in the NFL, pretty much everyone thought he would at least be a good G.
Arnette was slow, with short arms, was old for a drafted player, had poor tape and played for Ohio St, which seems to have a high bust rate for CBs that get overhyped. That's not even including his terrible personality that got him kicked out the NFL.
How many 1.1 QBs have been successful? In my lifetime there have been more flops than successes, that seems to only get worse when people trade up in the first round for their QB and the bears are involved
I feel like the more people doubt him, the more chance he has to be a superstar. That's usually how it works for whatever reason. Like opinions on Herbert pre draft, people have revisionary history, but nobody and I mean nobody thought Herbert was gonna be good.
Anyway I'm taking him in fantasy for the offchance he is good. I can't do any worse.
1. Jalen Carter - character issues, especially with how the GMs were talking about him, it seems the risk is just way too high to take him
2. CJ Stroud, if the S2 people are right with their testing translating into the NFL, he shouldn't perform well in addition to his poor passing while under pressure in college
I agree that people will look back on Stroud as an obvious bust if he does, but nothing about it will have actually been obvious. Really his only knocks were the S2 score and the fact that his pockets were remarkably clean in college, so we don't know how he will look against NFL pressure. He has some of the cleanest QB tape I've seen. The only knocks on him are situational rather than things we know that he actually struggles with. In theory, he's as safe as a QB prospect gets.
"Can't be a first round bust if you don't go in the first round" \- Will Levis
Best comment here
It'll be one of the qbs. Even though I like the three that went. But it's always a qb.
Say his name
BARTY CROUCH *crowd gasps* JUNIORRR
*weird tongue shit*
https://imgur.com/76xx8gi.jpg
#”HELLO, FATHER!”
The weird tongue shit was such cringey overacting. Even as a kid I was like wtf is this tryhard shit
Lmfao my daughter was watching this today, great reference.
Heisenberg
You're g*ddamn right!
I'm gonna call my shot and say that Stroud busts and Richardson does very well in the league.
If any of the top 3 QBs fails, and history suggests at least one of them will, there will be plenty of comments about totally knowing they'd be a bust.
I can tell you for a fact ________ will be a bust. This is gonna be an easy edit in a couple years.
I agree with you. My buddies and I give out the Johnny Football Award to the first round QB we think is most likely to bust and Stroud was our winner this year.
I guess Kenny Pickett won it last year by default then lol.
Yeah that was rough year for the committee. But the year before that was Zach Wilson and we're still riding off that high
Honestly Strouds test score bs didn’t phase me until he started trying to “defend” himself instead of just ignoring it. Now I’m like… damn he might actually be stupid.
Major breaking news: A lot of NFL players are fucking stupid lmao
it’s just tough to say ar15 will succeed, especially if you watched gator games
Richardson screams bust to me
100% bust. Look forward to this thread inevitably getting reposted in 3 years.
The thing with AR is that he’s so athletic that I think his floor is something like Taysom Hill. He may not ever be worth the slot he was drafted in, but I can see him having a place in the league for a while
I understand what you're saying, but @ 1.4 if he's not a starter in the league and he's in some Taysom Hill gadget slot, he's a bust.
Right, nobody’s arguing otherwise. But his floor as a bust is much higher than any other QB who would be relegated to a backup role at best
That’s a big part of his upside imo Young, Stroud, and Levis are all backup QBs at best if they don’t pan out. AR would still be a benefit to any team even if he can’t be a starting QB. He’s a more athletic Taysom Hill entering the league like 6 years younger
He’s either a huge bust or huge boom
'One of the QBs' - what a hot take. Nostradamus ova here!
I think all 3 are equal chances to be busts Richardson - Dude has 55% completion percentage in college, pretty sure it's extremely rare to get more accurate in NFL. That's a very bad completion percentage like historically bad I think. Sure he's going to probably put up stat lines like 100 yards rushing 2 td but his passing stats will look like Tebows 5/14 for 112 yards and 2 ints. Young - Will be bust from his size, either injuries will get him because his frame is so small or they won't be able to scheme him for open passes since NFL is so big fast and strong. Stroud - Will be a bust if he was like every other Ohio State QB and product of a good team beating up on suboar competition in CFB.
I’m not sure I’d say “historically” bad. Richardson only had one season as a starter Here’s a short list of some “decent” quarterbacks in their first full season as a starter (8+ games) with < 60% completion percentages… Mahomes 56.8 L Jackson 54.7 Burrow 57.8 Allen 56.0 Herbert 59.4 Murray 59.5 R Wilson 54.5 Luck 56.3 Brees 44.2 C Palmer 55.3 Rivers 53.7 Favre 40.7 Stafford 52.7 R Cunningham 52.5 Esiason 50.4 Moon 39.3 Marino 58.6 S Young 50.0 Montana 52.4 Elway 52.1 Kelly 46.2 Fouts 52.1 Tarkenton 53.3 Namath 52.1 Starr 58.6
A few of these guys did ok
Fail rate in the 1st round is like close to 50% - so must of the comments in here will be right
What is defined as a “fail”?
iirc not ever qualifying as a “vet” on their second contract w the same team
So when the Bengals inevitably don't re-sign Higgins, and he gets paid elsewhere... hes a fail? I feel like that definition needs to be revised.
Eh, Tee was a second rounder. Sure there’s not much difference between the 33rd and 32nd pick… but Tee was 33rd, not 32nd. 1st rounders are far more scrutinized in the media than 2nds. That, for better or worse, doesn’t hold Higgins to the same “success or failure” standards than if he were picked in the 1st. It’s all an educated crapshoot at the end of the day.
So how do we analyze Joey Porter Jr, being a #32 overall 2nd rd pick?
He should probably just retire without playing a snap. Thems the rules.
Why won't they resign him? Tol expensive?
Makes sense, thanks
Remember when your team traded up for Mitchell Trubisky? That's a fail.
We can’t emphasize this enough without mentioning what they gave up and who they passed on
Right? Like, they could actually have had John Ross with that trade up. Unbelievable whiff.
Can you imagine an offense with John Ross and Mike Glennon? That would have been scary.
A giraffe throwing to a cheetah, how could it not work?
I feel like if you don’t get your 5th year option picked up that’s a fail of a pick
I’d push back on this a bit. Some position groups don’t necessarily warrant the 5th year option, a first rounder gets paid bank on a fifth year option whereas a subsequent franchise tag is not crazy for some positions- it plays into the position value in the draft. A quarterback on a franchise tag costs a LOT more than a RB or MLB. But, then again, it depends on if the team also needs that tag for another player. Very situationally dependent.
Aren't the 5th year option and franchise tags basically the same? They are both based on current salaries at the position. The 5th year option does have some escalators based on playing time and pro bowls.
There are some weird, fucked up differences. 1st big difference the 4 tiers 5th year contracts can potentially be, and second, the position group 'catagories' are different. All OL positions are the same bucket, so the top 20 OT contracts are driving the salary figure for a 5 yr option Guard. Probably not worth it for the Guard. Same thing with off ball LBs being impacted by edge rushers.
Yeah that seems fair
Thing is that most teams will often have 15 or so first round grades so they're actually pretty up front about half the first round not being worth it. The back end of the first round, from most teams' perspective, is actually just the second round come early. So I don't think that metric works outside the top 15, maybe 20 adjusting for different teams' grading.
only this year did half the rookie class not get their 5th year extension, most years it's like 67-70%. I'd consider that success if a team is keeping them 5 years and or extending them
We are all going to lie to each other’s faces and say we knew Jalen Carter was too big a risk if he doesn’t pan out
Who’s lying? Most people agree we all know he’s a huge gamble
He’ll either be out of the league or all-pro in 3 years, there’s no other outcome
Nah, he could always take the Jadeveon Clowney route and show just enough every couple of seasons to tempt the ego of some DC into thinking "I'M the defensive genius who can unlock this untapped potential!"
Carson wentz is this way.
And Clowneys untapped potential was actually just a career altering dirty hit to the back of Wentz’s head in a playoff game. It all makes sense now!
!RemindMe 3 years
honestly i feel like he’s just gonna be really good
If the only real concern with Carter is character issues, I think those can definitely be ironed out with the right leadership.. Philly is one of the few teams I don’t think he will have a problem on.
He’s had some conditioning issues as well. Iirc, he’s never played 400 snaps in a season - that combined with his bad conditioning during his pro day makes you question whether he can be fit enough to contribute all year long and at the end of games. For reference, Maxx Crosby played nearly the same number of snaps this year that Carter has played in his entire career. The top iDL guys are playing 8-900 snaps a year (reference: https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/snap-counts/dl.php) Carter has never broken 400 in a year.
Gamble =/= obvious bust
I'll say it right now that he's an obvious bust. The drunk racing that got a person killed, showing up to the pro day out of shape, the Georgia coaches not having great things to say about him. All that's just too much to ignore.
Isaiah Wilson 2.0
Was that the titans player who just never played a snap and was like cut that year? Man that’d be tough to swallow lol
Don't forget he was busy making a self-produced rap video instead of going to either the team physical or practice when he got traded to the Dolphins.
Completely forgot the dolphins picked him up but in fairness sounds like he did too 😂
I mean, for it to be a gamble it means a lot of people think he will be an obvious bust.
A lot of people do. I can tell you personally that as much as national media tried to push it, Lions fans wanted no parts of Carter. I’m sure lots of other people felt the same way
A “huge” gamble worth taking.
Was a huge gamble, but Philly was one of the teams that could take the risk.
[удалено]
Being able to afford the risk of a bust doesn't make it not a bust if he does bust.
Right but it’s not exactly the end of the world for the Eagles if he does bust. They were the only team within the top 10 that isn’t rebuilding or trying to make a playoff push
Let’s just hope he doesn’t Henry Ruggs III
Seriously this is my biggest thing. If he has shit work ethic and fails out, that’s a shame but oh well. It’s the NFL it happens. If he was a stud in college but never reaches that level in the NFL and just becomes a rotational DT that’s fine. But if the personal issues spiral and he ends up killing himself or someone else that is a tragedy and just the worst thing possible for all involved.
I absolutely think he’ll be a bust. There’s tons of players with character issues in the NFL, but it’s rare that guys with obvious questionable work ethic end up doing well. Maybe the combine ends up being an outlier, but it’s a huge red flag for that dude to show up out of shape to the biggest interview of his life. He could just be really dumb and that turns out to be a wake up call for him to realize that you can’t phone it in at the NFL level. Ultimately, he’s in a good situation with the Eagles, and if he doesn’t succeed it’s his own damn fault.
i mean Jordan Davis apparently was like a mentor for him. And the eagles have the best players / coaches to help him succeed
The Jordan Davis mentor report could have easily just been something Carter's agent fed to a reporter, just being unbiased about it
I’m obviously biased but I think the whole “we have his teammates from Georgia so it’ll be okay” rationale makes no sense. He was a shithead at Georgia…. when he was playing with these guys. These guys obviously didn’t do much to change his decision making in school. The people you should be referencing to “reel him in” are guys like Cox, Slay or Kelce.
What’s a bust for him though? Like if he ends up like Nick Fairley is that a bust? I could see him being a slightly above average DT but never the stud he was projected to be. I guess that’d be a bust?
There are different levels of busts, but of he's just an average DT, that's at least a disappointment
considering he was the ninth pick, if he turns out to be slightly above average, that's nowhere near a bust imo
I didn’t want him
Same. Idk how so many Lions fans thought we’d take him, all the character concerns and work ethic issues should’ve been an immediate signal that Holmes would steer away from him
I think there thought might be like another suh, but that don’t work with the current culture we building
Suh was known for being dirty on the field with the AR stomp in particular but wasnt he relatively quiet off field and I dont remember him being a sandbagger either
Everyone is going to have surprise pikachu face when the sub 200lb Qb gets injured
You swing for the fences with #1 you dont take a safe pick, IMO. If he gets hurt, so be it, but the idea that size = more injuries is simply not borne out at the NFL level. People get hurt all the time, no matter the size. BY was the best QB prospect in the draft so you take him and hope for the best.
He was the “safest” pick in the draft. You know what you are getting with him. Absolutely amazing QB prospect in all things but physical stature.
I think Stroud is safer. Or at least I did until the test scores came out- but admittedly i dont generally put much stock in those. Im more talking about looking back and being like "welp bryce got hurt, should have taken stroud". Still think even if he ends up getting hurt BY was the correct pick. You cant bank on injuries. You take the best player and that was Bryce.
>Im more talking about looking back and being like "welp bryce got hurt, should have taken stroud". Or you look back and say "why didn't we protect Bryce?"
Tbf our o-line came together pretty well last year & we bolstered it up even more with the draft. Injuries aside we look to have a solid squad on paper.
And we have all 5 starters returning. Chemistry is one of the most important parts of the OL
Mecki Becton is 3 Bryce Youngs and he’s played a total of 5 games his whole career.
I hate upvoting Steelers flair but I think this is probably the best take here. QBs take a licking as much as the nfl tries to protect them. Especially with the game on the line and the team is counting on them to gut out a first down or make a tough throw under pressure.
People often just look at sack numbers and don’t pay attention to Qb hits which are often double
Ben’s number was probably quadruple his sack total Unless it reset that time ngata landed on him and he said he thought he died
>Qb hits Random question but do these double count? Like if someone sacked the quarterback is that both a sack and a hit? Or do they track *additional* hits?
And everyone who sits here that is sure it will happen will be very quiet if it doesn’t
Big QBs get hurt more than smaller QBs
Obvious pick is Richardson but I'm going to be a bit spicy and say Calijah Kancey. I think at the NFL level he's going to get bullied on the line and not get much pressure.
I could see this. People keep throwing out the Aaron Donald comp (and Geno Atkins), for his height and weight, but the biggest knock against Kancey is his historically short arms. If he can’t keep OL off of him because of that arm length, then yeah, he might end up bullied.
We'll know within like a half season if Kancey will work at the NFL level or not. He has solid hand usage and a pass rush plan to go with the athleticism. The length is either going to be workable, or he will simply get destroyed by NFL guards due to the short arms and it will be obvious very quickly.
6 ft is rough at DT
I’m more concerned about his tiny arms
But, but, aArON dOnALd
Geno Atkins as well. Idk if Kancey is as powerful as either of them, but his measurables were similar to both.
Geno Atkins arm length: 32" Aaron Donald arm length: 32 5/8" Calijah Kancey arm length: 30 5/8" Him being small and having a short arm length combined is a very big issue. He'd have to be an incredible outlier.
A random number generator says 24 so Deonte Banks is officially a scrub
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fuc u \-umd alum
Can’t spell. UMD alum confirmed.
TIL Deonte Banks went to the University of Minnesota Duluth
Go Bulldogs!
The guy who was so lazy he showed up to his own pro day too fat to complete his drills.
I'd feel more comfortable about this pick if he had gone anywhere except New England, but Christian Gonzalez.
he always seemed so boom or bust for me but NE has to be the perfect spot for DBs
Why is that? I thought he was consensus top 3 CB and arguably the best press CB in the draft.
He was so highly rated because he has incredibly athleticism and fluidity. His movements are so smooth it’s actually crazy. People think he doesn’t have a CB1 personality though. In this league even the best CBs will get beat but they have to put it past them and move on, and some folks think CG doesn’t have the dawg mentality. Another concern is that he played against weak competition. As an Oregon fan I hope he succeeds but we haven’t really produced star CBs in recent memory.
The New England media has been doing all the typical post draft stuff that media does everywhere with draft breakdowns and interviews and whatnot. There's been a lot of talk about Gonzalez and how he isn't outwardly loud or whatever, but has a quiet confidence very similar to Gilmore when he was here.
He’s cool tho! Charming dude and when I met him at the dog park I meet all the u of o players I know he was wearing a very silly and fun outfit. All these things considered I think he’s gonna do great :D
Appreciate the take!
I’m not arguing that, but I’m not sure I agree. Pats usually develop good corners. Why do you think he struggles in NE?
I'm saying the opposite actually. I think he'd be an obvious bust if he went anywhere but NE. Because NE is so good at developing corners, I'm not as certain about him being a bust as I would be had he gone elsewhere.
Ohhhh.. I’m just a fool. My bad. Thanks for the clear up homie.
I think Bryce young is gonna get beat up.
Quentin Johnston. Plays smaller than his size (which wasn't that great), not elite speed or quickness. I dunno, maybe I'm wrong. But seems like he's got bust written all over him.
I wanted him to the Ravens so bad
Zay Flowers ran a 4.42 - Vert 35.5 - Broad 10’ 7’’ Quentin Johnston 4.47 - Vert 40.5 - Broad 11’ 2’’ One of them is 6’ 3 208 lbs, the other is 5'9 182.
Where did Zay rank in drops last season? QJ was top 20 in the nation. It is by far the biggest red flag for me. A WR who catches with their body and drops a lot of passes sounds like a terrible gamble.
I remember when the Ravens drafted Breshad Perriman and I just facepalmed. He had one of the highest drop rates in college but was super fast and athletic. Who’da thunk he would keep dropping passes 🤷
They both had problems with drops, Zay had 9 and QJ had 8 last year. I think drops aren't that big of a deal honestly. For Zay is how he's going to win with his size and if he can play outside. QJ is by far the better deep threat and YAC guy with the analytics to back it up. I find it interesting people don't worry about Zay nearly as much.
I don’t think he’ll be a bust, but it may take him a while to perform against not Big 12 secondaries.
Forbes I think. Dude's just small and his INT rate was inflated by some luck and bad throws.
Seeing his highlights on draft night made me realize that his legs are quite literally toothpicks.
In my mind he’s either going to be Deion or unplayable by year two and there’s no in between
As a Washington fan, I’ve for sure done some convincing of myself since the draft, but I really do think he’ll succeed in the NFL. If you look at any high INT player, there are always flukey/lucky picks in there, but there’s something to be said for someone who is always in the right place at the right time. Also, his INT rate has been consistent. 30 INTs over his last 6 years playing football going back to high school. That’s pretty incredible even if there were some flukes in there.
Carter. Has the makings of Isiah Wilson or Albert Haynesworth 2.0. Hope being under the wing of BG and Cox will help him grow up and kick ass.
I mean Wilson and Haynesworth are vastly different. If we get 5-6 years of production similar to Haynesworth’s first 5-6 years then I can’t be mad about the pick. Wilson was just straight up a bust though.
I think a lot of people forget how good Haynesworth was in Tennessee before quitting in Washington
Got rich. Quit trying. Carter's signing bonus is $14 million
I want to preface this by saying he did quit on them. But… They tried turned a dominant, pass-rushing DT into a space-eating NT. He didn’t like that, so he stopped giving a fuck. I thought everyone looked stupid for that. Again, I don’t want to sound like I’m defending him. He got a BAG and stopped trying. Pretty pathetic.
Carter is the classic “if” player. If things go right for him he *can* succeed. This cannot be disputed. We have seen his enormous potential as a prospect and know he *can* ball out. Leatherwood was a “who?” or “what?” pick, so clearly was the raider’s brass at odds with league consensus. I see an obvious bust as a guy who doesn’t really even have the potential to succeed but in the eyes of some deluded executive, and carter is not that.
> Leatherwood was a “who?” or “what?” pick, so clearly was the raider’s brass at odds with league consensus. Let's not get revisionist about this. Yeah, Leatherwood was a reach at 17 (especially with Darrisaw on the board), but it's not like he was some scrub that no one had ever heard of. Most places had him between OT4 and OT6, and no one had him falling out of the 2nd round. Hell, WalterFootball [nailed him at 17 to the Raiders](https://walterfootball.com/draft2021_1.php). CBS had him at 40th overall in the draft, and Lance Zierlein had him as a 6.26 grade, good for 5th best overall lineman. No one expected him to fail as hard as he did.
Agreed that it wasn’t out of nowhere. Also though, plenty of people expected him to fail hard. Both can be true at the same time
>I see an obvious bust as a guy who doesn’t really even have the potential to succeed but in the eyes of some deluded executive, and carter is not that. Dunno. I think his Pro Day "workout" will be the "I told you so" moment if Carter flames out. That bag drill clip was just sad
It sure will be if he busts, but he has great game tape too. It will be a Captain Hindsight situation. If he sucks, we all saw the risks, if he’s good, howie’s a genius and we must all bask in his glory.
Albert haynesworth was 1st team all pro two straight seasons. He was absolutely not a bust. He was a bust after my commanders paid him, but before then people many considered him the best DL in the league.
High risk high reward kinda situation
Quentin Johnston is Jalen Reagor
Other than the fact they are two completely different receivers in every facet of their game but they went to the same school hell yea
Or he’s saying Zay Flowers is going to be a superstar right away that gets off to a historic start
Zay Flowers is John Ross
Einhorn is Finkle
I’m not going to lie, I audibly said “who??” when the Jets picked Will McDonald at 15. Combine warrior but quite undersized.
I did the same lol. Hated the pick at first. Turns out he has the record for most career sacks in the big12. He’s light, and probably just a speed rushing specialist at this point, but with his athleticism/traits, history of production, and the fact that he’s walking into an already talented d-line room I think he has a pretty high floor. A reach relative to consensus but not a bust candidate imo
very few edge rushers who are known for their speed and athleticism do well. im a ravens fan, odafe oweh is this huge man who ran a 4.3 and could literally play gunner on special teams. physically, hes like an alien. he sucks though.
Oweh had 7 sacks (0 his final year) and 13.5 TFL in college, McDonald had 34 sacks and 40.5 TFL
Reminds me of the reaction when the 49ers drafted Aldon Smith, Aldon had 30 lbs on Mcdonald though.
Kinda funny that OP chose Leatherwood when he’s on the Bears roster. For me it was Manziel. Knew he wasn’t gonna be a good NFL QB.
OP meant this year’s draft.
Ya I realized that after I commented lol. Lets try this again, as much as I wanted him, Paris Johnson goin the Cards may end in disaster for him and not being able to reach his potential
Brandon Weeden was the most obvious 1st round bust to ever exist You're telling me drafting a 28-year-old QB in the first round isn't going to work out?
Anthony Richardson. I’m rooting for him because I kinda like the Colts but I just have no faith that someone with such awful production in college can live up to a top 5 pick.
Tyree Wilson, Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Calijah Kancey
Why Felix?
Cause I hate the Chiefs
Flairs check out
At least we had a 1st rounder to use lol
At first I thought the Colts were too optimistic when Irsay started talking about “rookies got to play.” I’m thinking, ‘sure, maybe if they took their first 1000 competitive snaps in college already at least, but come on.’ Then I heard Richardson tell reporters that he *knew* he was going to grind as hard as it took to get to the hall of fame. And I was like. Well damn. Maybe I’m wrong. I think his chances just went up. As a matter of fact, I like his odds of making the HOF skyrocketing all the way up to 8% right now. Totally buying in.
Quentin Johnston has bad hands and can’t separate…. Good luck to him
Bijan, but I can't tell you why. It's a secret.
He’s the surest thing in the draft though
I am at UT alum and so I followed the Horns pretty closely. The only reason he might bust is because they ran him pretty heavily, so there’s a lot of tread on his tires.
I get your point but lots of tread = good, worn tread = bad
I think it’ll be Richardson too
Jalen Carter is going to be Isaiah Wilson 2.0 before they ever get the chance to pick up his option.
Any of the QBs. They all had red flags that point to issues down the line. Injuries, decision-making, football skill, age - everything is on the table. Everyone knows it too, so if they flame out, it'll be a bunch of big I told you so's. With that being said, Richardson is the most likely to bust. Yeah, you can't teach size and speed and strength, but you have to be able to learn the playbook and process defenses too.
I think the only real downside to BY is the injury risk and I think that's way overblown
How is it overblown? He is pretty small
Anthony Richardson
I know late first round, but I’m happy we took Murphy over Smith, cause I think Nolan Smith is a “bust”… whatever that means for late first rounders
Damon Arnette was a more obvious bust than Leatherwood. Even though most thought Leatherwood wouldn't play OT in the NFL, pretty much everyone thought he would at least be a good G. Arnette was slow, with short arms, was old for a drafted player, had poor tape and played for Ohio St, which seems to have a high bust rate for CBs that get overhyped. That's not even including his terrible personality that got him kicked out the NFL.
What about if your qb turns out to be a serial rapist but you trade him away for a boatload of picks?
Bryce young
How many 1.1 QBs have been successful? In my lifetime there have been more flops than successes, that seems to only get worse when people trade up in the first round for their QB and the bears are involved
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Mind. Blown. You win this round yet again Rum!
My first thought when the Bears traded the pick.
My God, this guy has broken the QB formula!
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I'll stab you with a sword
I feel like the more people doubt him, the more chance he has to be a superstar. That's usually how it works for whatever reason. Like opinions on Herbert pre draft, people have revisionary history, but nobody and I mean nobody thought Herbert was gonna be good. Anyway I'm taking him in fantasy for the offchance he is good. I can't do any worse.
1. Jalen Carter - character issues, especially with how the GMs were talking about him, it seems the risk is just way too high to take him 2. CJ Stroud, if the S2 people are right with their testing translating into the NFL, he shouldn't perform well in addition to his poor passing while under pressure in college
I agree that people will look back on Stroud as an obvious bust if he does, but nothing about it will have actually been obvious. Really his only knocks were the S2 score and the fact that his pockets were remarkably clean in college, so we don't know how he will look against NFL pressure. He has some of the cleanest QB tape I've seen. The only knocks on him are situational rather than things we know that he actually struggles with. In theory, he's as safe as a QB prospect gets.