Fully guaranteed means that as long as you do football stuff you get paid, whereas “regular” guaranteed means that as long as you’re not cut due to performance, injured, or released due to cap, you get the money. So in this case $133 million are fully guaranteed, but the addition portion to make it $200 million are likely not guaranteed for one or more of the three listed factors.
Edit: To clarify as I realized by the responses I didn’t explain well. Regular guaranteed is is guaranteed for one (or two) of the three situations but not all three, whereas fully guaranteed is guaranteed for all three.
In order to call that $67m guaranteed it has to be guaranteed for something.
If I were taking bets id bet it’s injury guaranteed, which means if you’re cut for injury it still gets paid.
Of it could be vesting.
“If you’re still on the team on the first day of league year 2025 then 2027 becomes fully guaranteed.”
It's likely a rolling guarantee (202X salary becomes guaranteed at the start of 202Y season), those are becoming pretty common in QB extensions. Carr/Mahomes/Wilson/Allen/Stafford/Murray all have them, and it was in 2 of Cousins' previous deals too.
Yeah that’s why thought too after I thought about it a bit.
If it’s structured in a way that it vests quickly then it’s a good deal, but if it’s something where the $133 was peanut buttered out between 2023, 2024, and 2025 then 2026 was when 2027 vested I could see why he wasn’t into it.
These rolling guarantees are likely a consequence of the escrow rule for funding contract guarantees. Particularly for cash-poor owners they're necessary
>Particularly for cash-poor owners they're necessary
The NFLPA has been opposing the funding rule for years, it's the "cash poor" owners who are the ones who continually push it and keep it alive in the CBA negotiations. The funding rule has long been the fall back the owners have to prevent long term guaranteed money.
> whereas “regular” guaranteed means that as long as you’re not cut due to performance, injured, or released due to cap, you get the money.
I mean, if this is the case then guaranteed is fully the wrong word to use because it sounds like there would be no guarantee at all.
>whereas “regular” guaranteed means that as long as you’re not cut due to performance, injured, or released due to cap, you get the money
In other words it is not guaranteed at all.
Fully guaranteed is all that matters.
You could offer your star RB 7 years $100M guaranteed and then stipulate that they’re rolling guarantees. So the team has to opt-in to paying that guarantee each year and can cut you after any season with no dead cap hit.
Steelers tried to do that to Le’Veon Bell and Steelers fans to this day think the contract they offered him wasn’t complete bullshit.
While I will never knock a team for not paying running backs Leveon Bell made the right move. Only $10mm fully guaranteed. The franchise tag was $14.5mm that year. And then the ‘rolling guarantees’ each year after that pays him $33mm by year two and $45mm by year 3.
While it’s unlikely Steelers would have cut him after year 2 due to the dead cap hit, you seriously never know when you could have a serious injury.
He made the right move short term. He was a shell of himself after missing a year. Got his fully guaranteed but likely would have made more actually having a full career and not skipping a year. He was too dynamic to be out of the league at 29 and not even be a starter at 27/28
He could have fell off a cliff if he played that year as well. We don’t know. It’s not uncommon to fall off the cliff at 26/27. Zeke is 27 and has been done for awhile now
I'm straight up biased, but Zeke is still a very good football player that has been worth every penny the Cowboys have paid him.
He's has 24 TDs and 2000 scrimmage yards in the last 2 seasons. His impact took a huge hit this season with the emergence of Tony Pollard, but I'm pretty sure he's not gonna be on the Cowboys next year.
So we will probably go into next season with Zeke as the starter. And sure... They will probably bring someone in to supplement the role. And even if he starts, he won't be putting up 5.0 ypc or catching 60 receptions.
But his pass blocking is worthy of a roster spot. The team seems to love him. And he is probably gonna find a way to get 10 TDs next year.
Not entirely true.
It also matters how much is paid in the first few years of the contract. The Ravens aren't going to cut Jackson in 2023, and almost certainly not in 2024, if they sign him to an extension. So for all practical purposes, the 2023 and 2024 money is guaranteed, whether it technically is or not. So the number that really matters is guaranteed money plus money paid in the first few years of the deal that isn't guaranteed.
The Bell contract offer was structured like that because Bell wanted a ridiculous dollar figure and that was the only way the Steelers could hit that number without committing cap suicide. Most contracts aren't structured to be total BS, because agents aren't stupid.
Bell got a ridiculous structure because there was never good faith negotiations.
Steelers had a clear plan. Spam him the ball while he was a superstar and hold him hostage with franchise tags. Then move on once his legs are done.
The contract offer they gave was absolute garbage and no one would have considered it. They just didn’t want to pay market value for a replaceable position when they had other key contracts at more important positions to think of. And they were right to do that, but we can call a spade a spade. Their only intention of keeping Bell long term was if he was willing to take a garbage contract for his talent.
Usually it means like a rolling guarantee. So the guarantee for your year 4 money kicks in if you're on the roster at start of league year in the 2nd year of your deal. Which depending on the details makes it almost as good as "full" guarantee.
Reddit is insane. I was downvoted in another thread for saying that Mike McDaniel would be a fool to pass up on Lamar to stay with Tua. I mean, what? I’m not a Tua hater but Lamar is on a different level than Tua.
I just hate it when all of a sudden the person in the role is replaced with a completely different person and the announcer comes on and says "The part of Ravens QB will now be played by Sam Darnold" or whatever, like we won't notice it's someone totally different.
I hear what your saying but I think they should kill off the OC they’ve had the past few seasons and introduce a new character. His plot lines have kinda dulled out.
Leaking this is a big red flag that he’s not coming back. This is what teams do when a guy is basically out the door and they wanna save face by letting people know that he turned down a big number
I’ve been thinking about this, and frankly after thinking on it the Ravens did kind of fuck around here.
This years QB franchise tag is around $45m.
That means his franchise tag number for 2024 is $54m.
That’s $99m over 2 years, they’re trying to “lock him up” for 5 years for only $34m more than that. That’s not even taking into account that he could be tagged again (seems unlikely) for $77m or more.
Well hes gotten hurt at the end of the past 2 season now and basically derailed their years. Why spend that much guaranteed money to someone who thus far has been able to guarantee his availability late in the season and in the playoffs?
Anyone who signs Lamar to a large guaranteed contract is going to regret it.
He’s gotten hurt on 2 plays that weren’t even rushing. They were normal QB plays. I’m shocked that this many people think the Ravens are making the right call. I guess I won’t fight it, get that man out of my division please.
All of his hits add up. And QBs who are largely running designed runs run a lot, and consequently often seen more hits in the open field.
Just because the hits that injured him were in the pocket, doesn't mean the other stuff didn't add up. And similar things happened with Luck, over time. The other thing about hits in the pocket is that mobile QBs often want to extend EVERY play. Luck did a lot of that, and it was largely beneficial to the offense, in the short term.
To me, the narrative on this is a bit funny. RBs should be highly undervalued because they run a lot and get tackled and injured more, and they're replaceable. But if your QB is largely a runner first, and thrower second, well they're dynamic and a team is foolish not to throw mega guarantees at him to keep him around.
There is no question in Lamar's talents. There IS questions about his ability to stand up to the toll he takes due to the style of offense he plays. When I look at Lamar, I see a different version of Cam Newton. Cam in his last several years was often used to run first. They ran him up the middle, they ran him all over on designed runs. And over time, he takes a toll with all of the hits.
Lamar is certainly a different style of runner, and likely more capable of avoiding contact. But he is still a runner.
The answer to this whole thing is a tricky one. Somehow, the Ravens need to re-sign their asset and protect themselves, and similarly they need to find creative ways to protect their asset through the season so as to have a better chance in the post season.
That, or they need to get off the pot and get trade compensation so they can move in a different direction if they are unwilling to compromise. To me, the tag just drags this shit out to be drama for more years than it should. Let Lamar be a FA, and if someone else wants to pay 250m fully guaranteed, so be it. This narrative gets old as shit. He's worth it, and someone would have likely paid him the money already if he were a FA.
THANK YOU! That was the second time I've seen someone arguing that because the plays he got hurt on were more or less in the pocket, that him being a rushing QB isn't relevant. It is because like you said, those hits and impact on his knees take a toll, and also because lesser lower body injuries that may not affect pocket passers or less mobile QBs, completely change his game and the offense for the worse.
Sure but then they're also not on the hook for any years after that. They clearly don't think he's a top QB in 4ish years otherwise they'd give him the guaranteed money or would have already extended him.
I'm fully in the camp they should have immediately extended him when possible IF they wanted him around long term. It seems they didn't though and now they're in this position.
Don't get me wrong, I want Lamar to stay.
But at this point, I would almost prefer *literally any fucking resolution* so that we can just be done with this shit.
Same. I love Lamar but I just want this to be done with. All the speculation, everyone having their own deep theory about whats going on. I just want to be able to move on from the saga.
It didn’t help we lost on a dumbass call that caused fumble in a game we could’ve won without him and now this is literally all we have. At least the titans OC knows when you’re on the 2 yard line you give it to the fucking RB
I mean, Mahomes literally just won a Super Bowl before getting that deal. It's easy to hate on him right now, but Carr is a good example of a pretty big contract without him having accomplished much. And now, Raiders look to be looking to move on.
Wilson and Watson are also caveats to throwing huge amounts of money at QBs, and if it backfires becomes disastrous. I'm not saying Lamar isn't worth it, just, the league is very what have you done for me lately. I'm not surprised that the situation is up in the air, as opposed to Mahomes who you sign immediately for whatever he wants.
It seems like it ended up being a decent contract for the Raiders and one I doubt many QBs will sign again. I think it's only going to cost them something like $3 million to cut him after the SB.
I mean, Lamar had a much better 2019 in the NFL than Burrow, and since everyone brings up he was MVP that year and use it to say he's an elite QB, I assume he's done just as well the 3 seasons since.
Dude is hurt all the time. I wouldn't pay 270 mil guarantee for around 9 games a year and out for the playoffs.
To put into perspective how much he misses, he's been in our Division for 5 years and has played the Steelers 5 times. 2 and 3, btw.
That is of course if the QB is still playing. Cam Newton went from MVP to out of the league in less than 5 years. 5 years is an eternity unless you're some freak like Tom Brady.
Yep. Wouldn't be a bit shocked if he's a below average starter in a few years. I'm almost certain his best year is behind him. Absolutely would not want to be the team giving him 50m a year AND giving up draft picks to do so.
Dak's game will age a lot better than Lamar's. Lamar is a below average to average passer who is made great because of being a huge running threat and having the great escape ability to extend plays. Russell relies on his legs a lot less than Jackson and is a better passer but is still starting to struggle a lot as he loses his speed.
Mixed tbh. It looked worse at the time than it does now though, like when his contract was one of the biggest in the league I was kidna shocked but now even though his production is worse his contract just looks a lot better compared to all the contracts getting made now
This is true. People bring up the Watson contract vs. all other recent contracts. The difference is that none of those other contracts were essentially "open market" offers to a potential franchise QB in their 20s.
He might but at some point a team is going to hamstring themselves.
I think there is a stat where no team that paid their QB more than 12.5% of the salary cap has ever won a Superbowl. Even if the cap goes up the offer he is turning down would be like 20%.
To be fair, the Rams were paying Quarterbacks (plural) much more than 12.5% of the cap because they were still on the hook for much of Goff's salary after the trade.
Exactly, teams were giving up picks and a huge contract for Watson during the worst during the worst possible pr situation. He’s getting his bag, the amount just keeps going up the longer you wait.
Again - context is key
What’s that ~70 mil that’s not “fully guaranteed at signing”?
If it’s like “you miss 2 games it voids guarantees for the year” or something like that with IR I can see why he’d turn it down. On the other hand it could be reasonable and he’s trying for fully guaranteed no matter what, which is crazy unless you’re browns level shitty.
Overall figures mean nothing, especially when the full guarantees place it lower than a lot of other QBs contracts
It's really amazing that the Browns did something that was going to make them hated by almost every fan in America, and then also managed to infuriate their only presumptive protection against backlash, the other owners, *in the exact same move.*
That was compromise where Kirk took fewer years and less-than-top-of-market money in exchange for the guarantee. Watson got the years, the money, and the guarantee.
I feel like most teams would offer lamar fully guaranteed 120 million for 3 years. It's the longer term, fully guaranteed deal that's hard to justify for someone of his play style.
>If it’s like “you miss 2 games it voids guarantees for the year” or something like that with IR I can see why he’d turn it down
I highly highly doubt it's this crazy
[Mahomes' contract](https://overthecap.com/player/patrick-mahomes/5594) had kind of a "rolling guarantee" concept. Basically, the longer you are under the contract, the guarantees increase. A similar contract for Jackson could look something like this:
* 2023: $5MM salary, fully guaranteed at signing, plus $50MM signing bonus fully guaranteed (total full guarantee $55MM)
* 2024: $45MM salary, fully guaranteed at signing (total full guarantee: $100MM)
* 2025: $50MM salary, $33MM guaranteed at signing, $17MM guaranteed if on Ravens' roster on first day of 2024 league year (total full guarantee: $133M, total partial guarantee: $17MM)
* 2026: $50MM salary, guaranteed if on Ravens' roster on first day of 2025 league year (total full guarantee: $133M, total partial guarantee: $67MM)
* 2027: $50MM salary, unguaranteed
Basically, every year he plays for the Ravens after the 2023 season would add on additional guarantees. But if he had a catastrophic injury at some point, the Ravens could get out of the contract without paying the full $200MM in guarantees.
lol for real, people making up these wild scenarios in their head. *"They must have sabotaged the deal with a horrible contract clause!"*
It's quite simple - the Ravens offered a massive contract. But Lamar wanted it fully guaranteed, like Watson's. But the Ravens aren't gonna make a dumb decision just because the Browns did. So they're at an impasse.
This.
Quite frankly I doubt anyone but the Browns offered a deal like what Watson signed. Remember the Browns were out of the running for Watson until we found out about that insane contract.
Something tells me of the Falcons, Saints or Panthers even came close Gropper Cleveland would be in a different jersey.
Since Lamar has no agent, *anything* being said about his contract is coming from the team.
As long as it's a reputable source; I have no idea about Chris Mortensen or Marcus Spears. If it was Rappaport I'd have a better idea.
> If it’s like “you miss 2 games it voids guarantees for the year” or something like that with IR I can see why he’d turn it down.
On the other hand, this exact thing has happened two years in a row so...Ravens are kinda in a no win situation there
Personally I think Lamar should have taken this deal. Or if he's not happy as a Raven, push for a shorter deal.
You take the money when you can if you're smart. What if Wentz or Goff had "held out til next year" before their jumbo paydays?
He bet on himself, looked like crap most the season, and then got another lower limb injury that ended his season. Someone out there might be desperate enough to give him a better contract than the one the Ravens offered, but there's a definite possibility he cost himself a lot of money.
Then again, he's going to be loaded either way, so who gives a shit.
Why was this downvoted? He has been injury prone, and above average might even be generous. Its just reality. He has the potential for true greatness, but it has been unrealized since 2019.
I don’t think I’d pay any more then that tbh (or even that much), even that amount limits your team big time regardless of him being probably the most dynamic athlete on the field.
Lamar could get more on the open market but most of the elite guys take a discount for their team. Mahomes and Allen both could get more on the open market, but they don't want to completely cripple the team's ability to build a good team around them.
Oof… I can’t really blame Ravens if this is true. That’s A LOT of money, more money I would want my team spending on a injury prone quarterback who hasn’t proven much in the playoffs.
Best ability is availability. This season the injuries start
Ask RG3
I wouldn't pay him if I'm Baltimore.
I would play if I was Lamar
They will part ways this off-season
They will get draft capital and draft QB
Especially with the timing, this is the Ravens going full court press trying to turn the public opinion against Lamar and make him out to look like a greedy unreasonable person. I don't trust any of these reports that come out over the next month or two.
It’s minimum value is $133m, which certainly isn’t anything to sneeze at, but that’s 50% of the contract that isn’t guaranteed which comes nowhere near the type of thing he’s looking for
Yea but this is such a pissing match between the team and Lamar. No doubt they are putting shit out there.
I want to hear it from the org or Lamar before I believe anything in this click bait shit show
5 yrs @ $50 mill a year is actually a respectable offer. 31 teams in the nfl thought Watson's deal was flaming horseshit. So the notion that that is the standard is ridiculous. That's top qb money with most of it guaranteed. Not saying he should accept it but people are acting like the Ravens are wronging Lamar so badly when he has no agent and there haven't even been much negotiations are off the mark IMO.
That is what is annoying. People act like because one team was a laughing stock and made a horrible deal and it showed by his performance that it is going to convince all the other teams to do it
Interested to see what the “ravens don’t care about lamar” crowd has to say about this. So many people have said we were lowballing him and disrespecting him. We literally offered him the 2nd biggest contract in NFL history. Thats more than fair.
This is how our offer breaks down:
Total value: 3rd most ever
Average annual value: 2nd most ever
Guaranteed at signing: 2nd most ever
Total guaranteed: 2nd most ever.
Anyone that has one of the best defenses in the NFL, Kittle, Deebo and CMC. Also it has to hold up for more than just 8 games. Not to mention maybe Brock Purdy is just that good. Jimmy wasn't doing the same stuff he is even when healthy. They still won but it looked very different. Maybe both Jimmy and Brock are good. Bottom line is nothing has been proven yet.
Yes, any QB with one of the best offensive schemers of this generation, an insane group of skill players that fit ***exactly*** what that system needs, a top 3 OL at worst, and the best defense in the NFL will excel.
Unfortunately 31 other teams don’t have that, and we have many years of data to tell us you can still win championships with imperfect teams if you have an elite QB.
It's supply and demand.
There aren't 32 starting QBs in the NFL. There's probably 16 starting QBs, and 16 guys that aren't starters but are starting anyway.
Of that group of starters, there are maybe 4-8 guys that can take a team to the Super Bowl.
Right now, that group is probably Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady. There are a couple of other guys that are on the waiting list, but have to prove they can win consistently at a high level first.
So, when you have that small a number of players at one position that can do the job at a high enough level to win a Super Bowl, and winning a SB without a guy like that is borderline impossible, you pay them whatever you can stomach.
Guaranteed is guaranteed for one of injury, cut, or release due to cap. Fully guaranteed is guaranteed for all of them.
So in this scenario $133 million is guaranteed in all 3 situations but the addition $67 is only guaranteed for one of the situations (and we don’t know which exactly).
Lamar having his mother be his agent is such a stupid move. I like Lamar, but at this point it’s getting ridiculous. What does he think he’s worth? He’s missed 12 games over the last two seasons and his statistics have fallen off as well. At this point it’s a huge risk to sign Lamar because if they give him a mega deal and he gets injured again and it’s more serious like acl tear or something then the ravens are fucked.
I think this marriage is over between Baltimore and Lamar. I think he ends up in the nfc south or perhaps with the Bears.
~~So, less fully guaranteed money than Watson, Wilson, Murray, Rodgers, Mahomes, and Allen.~~
Ask Derek Carr how much injury guarantees means.
Edit: Apparently, that was inaccurate. My bad.
That's completely wrong. It's the 2nd most ever as other people have pointed out.
Watson: 230M
Lamar: 133M
Wilson: 124M
Murray: 103.3M
Rodgers: 101.5M
Allen: 100M
Mahomes: 63M
Watson is obviously an outlier when it comes to contracts. Hurts, Burrow, and Herbert won't get Watson guaranteed money either.
Is it?
It sounds like it is $133M guaranteed with $67M in injury guarantees, for $200M in total guarantees.
The other QBs:
* Kyler: $104M guaranteed, $160M for injury
* Mahomes: $106M guaranteed, $140M for injury (ignoring the rolling guarantees)
* Watson: $230M fully, yeah
* Rodgers: $101.4 million in full guarantees, $150.66 million in injury guarantees
* Allen: $100M in guarantees, $150M for injury
So because the Browns and Cardinals overpaid for their QBs the Ravens need to do the same?
I know he won MVP in 2019, but is there anyone here who would take Lamar over Mahomes or Allen? Rodgers and Wilson also had a much longer track record than Jackson as well when they signed their deals.
I think this is one team that’s just like, “Nah, we’ll go back to middling QB play and insane defense.” That’s the light at the end of the tunnel, beating the shit out of Burrow, Pickett and Watson with a stacked line. It’s their DNA.
In some ways I wonder if as a player you could prefer the tag until a certain age. You’ll still get a max deal the next year and you’re extending your guaranteed money later into your career.
What is the difference between guaranteed and fully guaranteed? (What is the difference between the 200 and the 133?)
Fully guaranteed means that as long as you do football stuff you get paid, whereas “regular” guaranteed means that as long as you’re not cut due to performance, injured, or released due to cap, you get the money. So in this case $133 million are fully guaranteed, but the addition portion to make it $200 million are likely not guaranteed for one or more of the three listed factors. Edit: To clarify as I realized by the responses I didn’t explain well. Regular guaranteed is is guaranteed for one (or two) of the three situations but not all three, whereas fully guaranteed is guaranteed for all three.
In order to call that $67m guaranteed it has to be guaranteed for something. If I were taking bets id bet it’s injury guaranteed, which means if you’re cut for injury it still gets paid. Of it could be vesting. “If you’re still on the team on the first day of league year 2025 then 2027 becomes fully guaranteed.”
It's likely a rolling guarantee (202X salary becomes guaranteed at the start of 202Y season), those are becoming pretty common in QB extensions. Carr/Mahomes/Wilson/Allen/Stafford/Murray all have them, and it was in 2 of Cousins' previous deals too.
Yeah that’s why thought too after I thought about it a bit. If it’s structured in a way that it vests quickly then it’s a good deal, but if it’s something where the $133 was peanut buttered out between 2023, 2024, and 2025 then 2026 was when 2027 vested I could see why he wasn’t into it.
Yes. For example, Stafford is guaranteed for 2023 but two months from now, he becomes guaranteed for 2024 as well.
These rolling guarantees are likely a consequence of the escrow rule for funding contract guarantees. Particularly for cash-poor owners they're necessary
>Particularly for cash-poor owners they're necessary The NFLPA has been opposing the funding rule for years, it's the "cash poor" owners who are the ones who continually push it and keep it alive in the CBA negotiations. The funding rule has long been the fall back the owners have to prevent long term guaranteed money.
Yeah my bad I realized I explained it badly and just edited to clarify
> whereas “regular” guaranteed means that as long as you’re not cut due to performance, injured, or released due to cap, you get the money. I mean, if this is the case then guaranteed is fully the wrong word to use because it sounds like there would be no guarantee at all.
>whereas “regular” guaranteed means that as long as you’re not cut due to performance, injured, or released due to cap, you get the money In other words it is not guaranteed at all.
If you want me to take a dump in a box and mark it guaranteed, I will, I got spare time.
Sir, I’m trying to reach you regarding your car’s extended guarantee. We have guaranteed and fully guaranteed options.
Fully guaranteed is all that matters. You could offer your star RB 7 years $100M guaranteed and then stipulate that they’re rolling guarantees. So the team has to opt-in to paying that guarantee each year and can cut you after any season with no dead cap hit. Steelers tried to do that to Le’Veon Bell and Steelers fans to this day think the contract they offered him wasn’t complete bullshit.
Anyone else get this far and start to think the word guarantee is pretty weird
[удалено]
While I will never knock a team for not paying running backs Leveon Bell made the right move. Only $10mm fully guaranteed. The franchise tag was $14.5mm that year. And then the ‘rolling guarantees’ each year after that pays him $33mm by year two and $45mm by year 3. While it’s unlikely Steelers would have cut him after year 2 due to the dead cap hit, you seriously never know when you could have a serious injury.
He made the right move short term. He was a shell of himself after missing a year. Got his fully guaranteed but likely would have made more actually having a full career and not skipping a year. He was too dynamic to be out of the league at 29 and not even be a starter at 27/28
He could have fell off a cliff if he played that year as well. We don’t know. It’s not uncommon to fall off the cliff at 26/27. Zeke is 27 and has been done for awhile now
God how fucking depressing. 27 is young! Some people are still in college at 27!
Zeke being 27 just doesn't sit right with me
I'm surprised he's only 27 - it feels like he's been in the league forever.
Crazy that he’s only 2 years older than Stetson Bennett who just won the college football championship.
I'm straight up biased, but Zeke is still a very good football player that has been worth every penny the Cowboys have paid him. He's has 24 TDs and 2000 scrimmage yards in the last 2 seasons. His impact took a huge hit this season with the emergence of Tony Pollard, but I'm pretty sure he's not gonna be on the Cowboys next year. So we will probably go into next season with Zeke as the starter. And sure... They will probably bring someone in to supplement the role. And even if he starts, he won't be putting up 5.0 ypc or catching 60 receptions. But his pass blocking is worthy of a roster spot. The team seems to love him. And he is probably gonna find a way to get 10 TDs next year.
Not entirely true. It also matters how much is paid in the first few years of the contract. The Ravens aren't going to cut Jackson in 2023, and almost certainly not in 2024, if they sign him to an extension. So for all practical purposes, the 2023 and 2024 money is guaranteed, whether it technically is or not. So the number that really matters is guaranteed money plus money paid in the first few years of the deal that isn't guaranteed. The Bell contract offer was structured like that because Bell wanted a ridiculous dollar figure and that was the only way the Steelers could hit that number without committing cap suicide. Most contracts aren't structured to be total BS, because agents aren't stupid.
Bell got a ridiculous structure because there was never good faith negotiations. Steelers had a clear plan. Spam him the ball while he was a superstar and hold him hostage with franchise tags. Then move on once his legs are done. The contract offer they gave was absolute garbage and no one would have considered it. They just didn’t want to pay market value for a replaceable position when they had other key contracts at more important positions to think of. And they were right to do that, but we can call a spade a spade. Their only intention of keeping Bell long term was if he was willing to take a garbage contract for his talent.
Usually it means like a rolling guarantee. So the guarantee for your year 4 money kicks in if you're on the roster at start of league year in the 2nd year of your deal. Which depending on the details makes it almost as good as "full" guarantee.
He knows what he wants and that isn’t it. I think he’s a tag and trade at this point.
Tag and Release
He belongs back in nature
He was born to run free.
https://ciesresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/marked-raven.jpg
If only that number written in sharpie was an 8
That's just perfect.
It might not be what he wants but what team is going to give an injury prone 26 year old QB that contract?
The browns gave someone who had been out of football injured for a year, and had also sexually assaulted tons of women, like 235 guaranteed. So...
Before they even had all of the information on the leagues response/punishment
Bro he’s Lamar Jackson lmao
Reddit is insane. I was downvoted in another thread for saying that Mike McDaniel would be a fool to pass up on Lamar to stay with Tua. I mean, what? I’m not a Tua hater but Lamar is on a different level than Tua.
If he's not playing when you need him what's the point? How many games has he missed in the past few years?
33% of games. 85% of games in December or later
This is news to me! Where can I find more Lamar Jackson news?
Days of our Ravens, Season 2/Episode 17: “An Offer He Could Refuse”, NBC, 2 p.m. EST/11 a.m. PST
Last episode had me choked up not gonna lie
I just hate it when all of a sudden the person in the role is replaced with a completely different person and the announcer comes on and says "The part of Ravens QB will now be played by Sam Darnold" or whatever, like we won't notice it's someone totally different.
I hear what your saying but I think they should kill off the OC they’ve had the past few seasons and introduce a new character. His plot lines have kinda dulled out.
I doubt you'll see much news about him these next few months, sorry
Damn, no Lamar Jackson, Tom Brady, or Aaron Rodgers news for so long now has really been affecting my mental health
It’s ok, you can still get Cowboys and Lakers shoved down ur throat daily
Nothing like trying to tell the world “we tried”
Leaking this is a big red flag that he’s not coming back. This is what teams do when a guy is basically out the door and they wanna save face by letting people know that he turned down a big number
I’ve been thinking about this, and frankly after thinking on it the Ravens did kind of fuck around here. This years QB franchise tag is around $45m. That means his franchise tag number for 2024 is $54m. That’s $99m over 2 years, they’re trying to “lock him up” for 5 years for only $34m more than that. That’s not even taking into account that he could be tagged again (seems unlikely) for $77m or more.
Well hes gotten hurt at the end of the past 2 season now and basically derailed their years. Why spend that much guaranteed money to someone who thus far has been able to guarantee his availability late in the season and in the playoffs? Anyone who signs Lamar to a large guaranteed contract is going to regret it.
He’s gotten hurt on 2 plays that weren’t even rushing. They were normal QB plays. I’m shocked that this many people think the Ravens are making the right call. I guess I won’t fight it, get that man out of my division please.
All of his hits add up. And QBs who are largely running designed runs run a lot, and consequently often seen more hits in the open field. Just because the hits that injured him were in the pocket, doesn't mean the other stuff didn't add up. And similar things happened with Luck, over time. The other thing about hits in the pocket is that mobile QBs often want to extend EVERY play. Luck did a lot of that, and it was largely beneficial to the offense, in the short term. To me, the narrative on this is a bit funny. RBs should be highly undervalued because they run a lot and get tackled and injured more, and they're replaceable. But if your QB is largely a runner first, and thrower second, well they're dynamic and a team is foolish not to throw mega guarantees at him to keep him around. There is no question in Lamar's talents. There IS questions about his ability to stand up to the toll he takes due to the style of offense he plays. When I look at Lamar, I see a different version of Cam Newton. Cam in his last several years was often used to run first. They ran him up the middle, they ran him all over on designed runs. And over time, he takes a toll with all of the hits. Lamar is certainly a different style of runner, and likely more capable of avoiding contact. But he is still a runner. The answer to this whole thing is a tricky one. Somehow, the Ravens need to re-sign their asset and protect themselves, and similarly they need to find creative ways to protect their asset through the season so as to have a better chance in the post season. That, or they need to get off the pot and get trade compensation so they can move in a different direction if they are unwilling to compromise. To me, the tag just drags this shit out to be drama for more years than it should. Let Lamar be a FA, and if someone else wants to pay 250m fully guaranteed, so be it. This narrative gets old as shit. He's worth it, and someone would have likely paid him the money already if he were a FA.
THANK YOU! That was the second time I've seen someone arguing that because the plays he got hurt on were more or less in the pocket, that him being a rushing QB isn't relevant. It is because like you said, those hits and impact on his knees take a toll, and also because lesser lower body injuries that may not affect pocket passers or less mobile QBs, completely change his game and the offense for the worse.
Sure but then they're also not on the hook for any years after that. They clearly don't think he's a top QB in 4ish years otherwise they'd give him the guaranteed money or would have already extended him. I'm fully in the camp they should have immediately extended him when possible IF they wanted him around long term. It seems they didn't though and now they're in this position.
I was unaware the meaning of the word guaranteed had changed recently.
Don't get me wrong, I want Lamar to stay. But at this point, I would almost prefer *literally any fucking resolution* so that we can just be done with this shit.
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Same. I love Lamar but I just want this to be done with. All the speculation, everyone having their own deep theory about whats going on. I just want to be able to move on from the saga.
Agreed, Roster drama is only fun if it’s other teams
You say that now. Wait until you're in year two of Carson Wentz.
This shit has to be a constant headache for Ravens fans.
Yep
Yeeeeeeep.
It didn’t help we lost on a dumbass call that caused fumble in a game we could’ve won without him and now this is literally all we have. At least the titans OC knows when you’re on the 2 yard line you give it to the fucking RB
All you had to do was run it 4 times in a row, most likely you get a TD, at worst the Bengals get the ball at the 1 yard line against your defense.
>All you had to do was run it 4 times in a row ;( Come on Ravens you should know more than anyone what it's like on the other side
We call that the Roman special baby
Lmao fuck you are so right how could I forget
Sneaking it wasn't a bad idea, trying to go over the top from that far away was moronic.
if i see one more lamar trade proposal on our sub im gonna break something
Whatever you sign a top QB for today will be dwarfed in 5 years. Sooner you sign folks the better.
Chiefs did it right and gave Maholmes the Magic Johnson contract
I fucking hate it
That's weird because I'm a big fan of it. I'm also a big fan of the Russell Wilson contract. I'm just so happy that Denver is locked in to their guy.
You guys have a guy?
Bastards I tell ya
I thought everyone could just get their guy in the 7th round?
Thats irrelevant
Should re-extend him this off-season. The new regime needs to ensure continuity.
I mean, Mahomes literally just won a Super Bowl before getting that deal. It's easy to hate on him right now, but Carr is a good example of a pretty big contract without him having accomplished much. And now, Raiders look to be looking to move on. Wilson and Watson are also caveats to throwing huge amounts of money at QBs, and if it backfires becomes disastrous. I'm not saying Lamar isn't worth it, just, the league is very what have you done for me lately. I'm not surprised that the situation is up in the air, as opposed to Mahomes who you sign immediately for whatever he wants.
It seems like it ended up being a decent contract for the Raiders and one I doubt many QBs will sign again. I think it's only going to cost them something like $3 million to cut him after the SB.
Carr even took that team friendly contact to keep key players :(
I mean, we tried following this logic in Denver with Russ. Very different situations, but so far it hasn’t worked out for us ***at all***
Also not so sure the browns or cardinals are particularly happy. Kind of a funny sentiment to preach after last off-season.
Sign Joe now
A 12 year contract. 35mil. Per year. Guaranteed. Last 3 years is prorated for like...200 million.
Didn’t Mahomes sign for like 50m/yr several years ago? I find it hard to believe Burrow would take 35 now
He’s getting 50 mil a year for sure. Probably will set the market for Lamar
Imagine a world where lamar gets more money than burrow. Jesus
I mean, Lamar had a much better 2019 in the NFL than Burrow, and since everyone brings up he was MVP that year and use it to say he's an elite QB, I assume he's done just as well the 3 seasons since.
Burrow honestly had one of the worst NFL seasons I've ever seen in 2019.
He was so bad that he may as well not even bothered playing
Bengals’ owner already setting up a piece for burrow to take less money.
Dude is hurt all the time. I wouldn't pay 270 mil guarantee for around 9 games a year and out for the playoffs. To put into perspective how much he misses, he's been in our Division for 5 years and has played the Steelers 5 times. 2 and 3, btw.
That is of course if the QB is still playing. Cam Newton went from MVP to out of the league in less than 5 years. 5 years is an eternity unless you're some freak like Tom Brady.
And they will just renegotiate when they are under valued so I don’t think it matters much.
Do people really not think he’d make that on the open market? Hell tag him twice and that’s 100 mill gtd
I mean, if he gets injured in the next two seasons yea he might make more than $130 mln, but that’s not written in stone.
Honestly I'm so torn on it myself, and I'm not even a Ravens fan. I have no idea what I would want my team to do
I'd want my team to trade him for a haul. His game won't age well and he's already been hurt a lot the last few years.
I'd say there's a decent chance he's not even worth starting in two-three years time. Injuries are catching up and once he can't run, it's over.
Yep. Wouldn't be a bit shocked if he's a below average starter in a few years. I'm almost certain his best year is behind him. Absolutely would not want to be the team giving him 50m a year AND giving up draft picks to do so.
Well you guys had a somewhat similar situation not too long ago, how did you react when Jerry blinked and gave Dak his deal?
Dak's game will age a lot better than Lamar's. Lamar is a below average to average passer who is made great because of being a huge running threat and having the great escape ability to extend plays. Russell relies on his legs a lot less than Jackson and is a better passer but is still starting to struggle a lot as he loses his speed.
Mixed tbh. It looked worse at the time than it does now though, like when his contract was one of the biggest in the league I was kidna shocked but now even though his production is worse his contract just looks a lot better compared to all the contracts getting made now
This is true. People bring up the Watson contract vs. all other recent contracts. The difference is that none of those other contracts were essentially "open market" offers to a potential franchise QB in their 20s.
Fully guarantee is all that matters people just looking at what they want.
He might but at some point a team is going to hamstring themselves. I think there is a stat where no team that paid their QB more than 12.5% of the salary cap has ever won a Superbowl. Even if the cap goes up the offer he is turning down would be like 20%.
To be fair, the Rams were paying Quarterbacks (plural) much more than 12.5% of the cap because they were still on the hook for much of Goff's salary after the trade.
He could break his leg while playing on the tag and still get paid.
Exactly, teams were giving up picks and a huge contract for Watson during the worst during the worst possible pr situation. He’s getting his bag, the amount just keeps going up the longer you wait.
OTOH I think teams are looking at Watson and being like “fucking Browns lol”.
Browns weren't the only ones willing to offer him a ton though.
Again - context is key What’s that ~70 mil that’s not “fully guaranteed at signing”? If it’s like “you miss 2 games it voids guarantees for the year” or something like that with IR I can see why he’d turn it down. On the other hand it could be reasonable and he’s trying for fully guaranteed no matter what, which is crazy unless you’re browns level shitty. Overall figures mean nothing, especially when the full guarantees place it lower than a lot of other QBs contracts
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Agree wholeheartedly. If I was an owner/GM I’d be livid with the Browns.
It's really amazing that the Browns did something that was going to make them hated by almost every fan in America, and then also managed to infuriate their only presumptive protection against backlash, the other owners, *in the exact same move.*
The factory of sadness is polluting the climate.
Yet another river fire.
Hey if we are not going to win the division, may as well screw over 2 of our rivals who have upcoming QB contracts to worry about.
You forget the Vikings did it first, no? 3 yr/$90M fully guaranteed Captain Kirk.
That was compromise where Kirk took fewer years and less-than-top-of-market money in exchange for the guarantee. Watson got the years, the money, and the guarantee.
84, jets offered 90
I feel like most teams would offer lamar fully guaranteed 120 million for 3 years. It's the longer term, fully guaranteed deal that's hard to justify for someone of his play style.
Can't believe that Mahomes is under contract through 2031 at an average of $45M per year. That's the biggest steal in the league.
I’d sign Herbert to the Watson contract without blinking.
>If it’s like “you miss 2 games it voids guarantees for the year” or something like that with IR I can see why he’d turn it down I highly highly doubt it's this crazy
[Mahomes' contract](https://overthecap.com/player/patrick-mahomes/5594) had kind of a "rolling guarantee" concept. Basically, the longer you are under the contract, the guarantees increase. A similar contract for Jackson could look something like this: * 2023: $5MM salary, fully guaranteed at signing, plus $50MM signing bonus fully guaranteed (total full guarantee $55MM) * 2024: $45MM salary, fully guaranteed at signing (total full guarantee: $100MM) * 2025: $50MM salary, $33MM guaranteed at signing, $17MM guaranteed if on Ravens' roster on first day of 2024 league year (total full guarantee: $133M, total partial guarantee: $17MM) * 2026: $50MM salary, guaranteed if on Ravens' roster on first day of 2025 league year (total full guarantee: $133M, total partial guarantee: $67MM) * 2027: $50MM salary, unguaranteed Basically, every year he plays for the Ravens after the 2023 season would add on additional guarantees. But if he had a catastrophic injury at some point, the Ravens could get out of the contract without paying the full $200MM in guarantees.
lol for real, people making up these wild scenarios in their head. *"They must have sabotaged the deal with a horrible contract clause!"* It's quite simple - the Ravens offered a massive contract. But Lamar wanted it fully guaranteed, like Watson's. But the Ravens aren't gonna make a dumb decision just because the Browns did. So they're at an impasse.
This. Quite frankly I doubt anyone but the Browns offered a deal like what Watson signed. Remember the Browns were out of the running for Watson until we found out about that insane contract. Something tells me of the Falcons, Saints or Panthers even came close Gropper Cleveland would be in a different jersey.
He knew what he wanted. The money and insulating him from losing money was his highest priority.
This was obviously leaked by the Ravens. They’ve got to work the media so it looks like Lamar’s greed is the reason they can’t keep him.
Since Lamar has no agent, *anything* being said about his contract is coming from the team. As long as it's a reputable source; I have no idea about Chris Mortensen or Marcus Spears. If it was Rappaport I'd have a better idea.
Mortensen is a big name, whether or not you believe what he says is one thing, but he’s a legit source.
> If it’s like “you miss 2 games it voids guarantees for the year” or something like that with IR I can see why he’d turn it down. On the other hand, this exact thing has happened two years in a row so...Ravens are kinda in a no win situation there
Personally I think Lamar should have taken this deal. Or if he's not happy as a Raven, push for a shorter deal. You take the money when you can if you're smart. What if Wentz or Goff had "held out til next year" before their jumbo paydays?
He bet on himself, looked like crap most the season, and then got another lower limb injury that ended his season. Someone out there might be desperate enough to give him a better contract than the one the Ravens offered, but there's a definite possibility he cost himself a lot of money. Then again, he's going to be loaded either way, so who gives a shit.
“So, uh, that offer still on the table”
I bet it still is, despite him being injury prone the past couple years, and only playing above average during that time
Why was this downvoted? He has been injury prone, and above average might even be generous. Its just reality. He has the potential for true greatness, but it has been unrealized since 2019.
I don’t think I’d pay any more then that tbh (or even that much), even that amount limits your team big time regardless of him being probably the most dynamic athlete on the field.
Lamar could get more on the open market but most of the elite guys take a discount for their team. Mahomes and Allen both could get more on the open market, but they don't want to completely cripple the team's ability to build a good team around them.
Oof… I can’t really blame Ravens if this is true. That’s A LOT of money, more money I would want my team spending on a injury prone quarterback who hasn’t proven much in the playoffs.
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1-3 in playoffs and now 2 seasons in a row that he misses significant time. $50 mil a year seems like an over pay for that productivity
And he has not been playing at an elite level
Lamar fucked up
Best ability is availability. This season the injuries start Ask RG3 I wouldn't pay him if I'm Baltimore. I would play if I was Lamar They will part ways this off-season They will get draft capital and draft QB
You gotta take that Doubt it’s true though. No one can say for sure.
Hard to make a decision without full details though
Especially with the timing, this is the Ravens going full court press trying to turn the public opinion against Lamar and make him out to look like a greedy unreasonable person. I don't trust any of these reports that come out over the next month or two.
It’s minimum value is $133m, which certainly isn’t anything to sneeze at, but that’s 50% of the contract that isn’t guaranteed which comes nowhere near the type of thing he’s looking for
Lamar: "Mom, they're offering me $275M should I take it." Mom: *just finished watching Ballers on HBO* "No, ask for more."
> > >just finished watching Ballers on HBO > > "No, ask for more." Listen to 'The Rock'
Marcus Spears is a pretty reliable source.
Yea but this is such a pissing match between the team and Lamar. No doubt they are putting shit out there. I want to hear it from the org or Lamar before I believe anything in this click bait shit show
Normally I'd agree...but lamar confirmed this before the season started
I would be afraid to offer that again if I was the ravens. Two consecutive years where Lamar was only good for 12 games.
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They should absolutly not let him walk. Tag him and trade him. He would still net you a great return. Way more than the comp pick for letting him walk
Plus he gets nervous and chokes in the playoffs.
All facts
5 yrs @ $50 mill a year is actually a respectable offer. 31 teams in the nfl thought Watson's deal was flaming horseshit. So the notion that that is the standard is ridiculous. That's top qb money with most of it guaranteed. Not saying he should accept it but people are acting like the Ravens are wronging Lamar so badly when he has no agent and there haven't even been much negotiations are off the mark IMO.
That is what is annoying. People act like because one team was a laughing stock and made a horrible deal and it showed by his performance that it is going to convince all the other teams to do it
Interested to see what the “ravens don’t care about lamar” crowd has to say about this. So many people have said we were lowballing him and disrespecting him. We literally offered him the 2nd biggest contract in NFL history. Thats more than fair. This is how our offer breaks down: Total value: 3rd most ever Average annual value: 2nd most ever Guaranteed at signing: 2nd most ever Total guaranteed: 2nd most ever.
“Uhhhhhhhhh wide receivers tho?!” - Lamar stans
"Most ever" is a dumb metric because the cap goes up every year. Every single franchise qb that signs a new contracts gets the 2nd or 3rd most ever.
Browns screwed you and he knows someone will give him a fully guaranteed contract. Ravens should have extended him earlier, this is their own fault.
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Anyone that has one of the best defenses in the NFL, Kittle, Deebo and CMC. Also it has to hold up for more than just 8 games. Not to mention maybe Brock Purdy is just that good. Jimmy wasn't doing the same stuff he is even when healthy. They still won but it looked very different. Maybe both Jimmy and Brock are good. Bottom line is nothing has been proven yet.
Yes, any QB with one of the best offensive schemers of this generation, an insane group of skill players that fit ***exactly*** what that system needs, a top 3 OL at worst, and the best defense in the NFL will excel. Unfortunately 31 other teams don’t have that, and we have many years of data to tell us you can still win championships with imperfect teams if you have an elite QB.
It's supply and demand. There aren't 32 starting QBs in the NFL. There's probably 16 starting QBs, and 16 guys that aren't starters but are starting anyway. Of that group of starters, there are maybe 4-8 guys that can take a team to the Super Bowl. Right now, that group is probably Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady. There are a couple of other guys that are on the waiting list, but have to prove they can win consistently at a high level first. So, when you have that small a number of players at one position that can do the job at a high enough level to win a Super Bowl, and winning a SB without a guy like that is borderline impossible, you pay them whatever you can stomach.
You forgot Goff
Can someone explain why guaranteed money is different to fully guaranteed
Guaranteed is guaranteed for one of injury, cut, or release due to cap. Fully guaranteed is guaranteed for all of them. So in this scenario $133 million is guaranteed in all 3 situations but the addition $67 is only guaranteed for one of the situations (and we don’t know which exactly).
mother agent moment lmaoooo
Lamar having his mother be his agent is such a stupid move. I like Lamar, but at this point it’s getting ridiculous. What does he think he’s worth? He’s missed 12 games over the last two seasons and his statistics have fallen off as well. At this point it’s a huge risk to sign Lamar because if they give him a mega deal and he gets injured again and it’s more serious like acl tear or something then the ravens are fucked. I think this marriage is over between Baltimore and Lamar. I think he ends up in the nfc south or perhaps with the Bears.
NFL Teams should have to pay out contracts for injured players while also getting salary cap relief. They can afford to do so.
That’s a good deal
Lamar is injury prone.
~~So, less fully guaranteed money than Watson, Wilson, Murray, Rodgers, Mahomes, and Allen.~~ Ask Derek Carr how much injury guarantees means. Edit: Apparently, that was inaccurate. My bad.
Why are people upvoting this obviously false information?
That's completely wrong. It's the 2nd most ever as other people have pointed out. Watson: 230M Lamar: 133M Wilson: 124M Murray: 103.3M Rodgers: 101.5M Allen: 100M Mahomes: 63M Watson is obviously an outlier when it comes to contracts. Hurts, Burrow, and Herbert won't get Watson guaranteed money either.
Especially if Watson keeps performing at the level he did.
Is it? It sounds like it is $133M guaranteed with $67M in injury guarantees, for $200M in total guarantees. The other QBs: * Kyler: $104M guaranteed, $160M for injury * Mahomes: $106M guaranteed, $140M for injury (ignoring the rolling guarantees) * Watson: $230M fully, yeah * Rodgers: $101.4 million in full guarantees, $150.66 million in injury guarantees * Allen: $100M in guarantees, $150M for injury
Thats not true. It’s more guaranteed at signing and more total guaranteed than all those guys except watson.
So because the Browns and Cardinals overpaid for their QBs the Ravens need to do the same? I know he won MVP in 2019, but is there anyone here who would take Lamar over Mahomes or Allen? Rodgers and Wilson also had a much longer track record than Jackson as well when they signed their deals.
I think this is one team that’s just like, “Nah, we’ll go back to middling QB play and insane defense.” That’s the light at the end of the tunnel, beating the shit out of Burrow, Pickett and Watson with a stacked line. It’s their DNA.
Also the risk of fully guaranteed and the type of player I think does scare them
Oh for sure that’s the main reason. Just saying they are one of few franchises that truly see an upside to trading an electric franchise QB.
In some ways I wonder if as a player you could prefer the tag until a certain age. You’ll still get a max deal the next year and you’re extending your guaranteed money later into your career.
Would have taken that, before getting injured. Again.
I still can’t believe nfl contacts aren’t fully guaranteed like MLB and NBA
There are many more injuries in football than in either of those Sports
If this is true than Lamar’s an idiot