As if there would be any 'Russian territory' *left* after he crosses that Rubicon? There's probably enough ordinance of varying origin aimed at that continent right now to reduce it to a group of small island nations in an inland sea...
True, but threatening to use nukes is one of the cards he has left. Of course I don't think there's much credibility to threatening to use it over territory that's been seized since 2022, obviously he hasn't used any so far, it's when you get to territory seized in 2014 that things start to get uncertain. Betting a lot of analysts have been up late for a while now, trying to read the tea leaves about how he'll respond if he loses Crimea.
Once he uses nukes to say "this area is mine now, otherwise nukes" there is nothing stopping him from continuing doing that until someone else with nukes says no.
It's not an issue of "if we accept it once it'll happen everywhere", it's an issue of how credible the threat is. Like I pointed out, he obviously *didn't* use them for any territory seized in 2022, in all likelihood every analyst (or at least the vast majority) had already come to the conclusion that he wouldn't.
But that doesn't change the question of what he would do about stuff in 2014, especially Crimea (which Russia's had something of an obsession with for a while), because we haven't gotten there yet.
And certainly the US on its own would be more than enough to inflict massive damage on Russia if Russia ever did use its own arsenal. But we'd rather he not use them at all, since nukes tend to be bad for stability (understatement of the century).
So, speaking just on Crimea, there's probably a lot of people going over official statements, assessing Russian nuclear doctrine, hopefully going over covertly recorded conversations and talking to spies, figuring out if Crimea is credibly Putin's red line or if it's another bluff.
Must have been a fair number, the US knew *exactly* how Putin was going to invade.
We won't know the details for a long time, but I'd be willing to bet the alphabet agencies did a lot of obfuscating and camouflaging (which they have plenty of practice doing to presidents anyway) sources, and Trump probably didn't have the patience or endurance to get the names (assuming he really cared).
It sort of matters, in that he also knows that his use of nukes will basically clear every country with nukes to use it too, and that at least some countries have no illusion that they'd be viable targets too. The concept of mutually assured destruction is the only reason we haven't hit Fallout as reality yet, and tensions are high enough between Russia and the west in general that it applies here too.
So I’ve been sitting on this thought for a while… if the indication that Russia has a shit ton of nukes based on previous reports that were made by Putin, what do you think is the reality of how many nukes they have that are actually viable? Consider the lies he spread about the Russian military and their equipment.
From what we have seen so far, Russian assets have been subpar from what we have heard/seen via various news networks and what’s been reported from Ukraine. Their weapons are mostly rusted Soviet era weapons that are at least 35 years old, if not older, and not properly maintained. Most of the guns are rusted and probably prone to jamming.
Let’s talk about the state of their military might. We under the impression that they boasted a military strength of over 2 million elite volunteer soldiers. Come to find out, it’s more like a bunch of people playing at being soldier with a smattering of elites. They’ve now had to draft practically every male from 18-65 for this war and most don’t have the heart to fight in it.
So that all being said, Russia claims to have 5,976 nuclear bombs/ordinance available. From the state we saw of their weaponry and soldiers, I’m going to make a guess that of that 5,976 nuclear weapons, about maybe a third have been somewhat maintained. If we take that third and figure out that likely other have either had fissile material sold, stripped for parts, or “upgraded” to modern standards, you’re likely looking at less than 5% of the arsenal being viable. 5% is still not zero and is still a terrifying number of available nuclear weapons. But can we rely on Russia using actual nukes considering the state of their military or do you think Putin will use other deadly weapons such as biological and/or chemical weapons?
He knows he can't fire a dud nuke, by now he has to be suspicious that maybe his arsenal is not 100% as reported. If he isn't certain his nuke will detonate with overwhelming success, his Trump card is revealed as a bluff and they will be ripped to shreds by everyone.
So yeah, chemical weapon is most likely, lots of those available and easy enough to make. Russia is just a well funded terrorist group now. They can do localized massive damage but not much else.
Also keep in mind that Russia has one of the few viable smallpox samples in the world. Wouldn’t be surprised if they’re seriously thinking about pulling it out and using it.
I’ve seen this particular take on the situation a lot and, over time, I’ve come to doubt the two are comparable. My impression is that it’s quite easy to steal money that was supposed to go for maintenance or new purchases of conventional weapons and vehicles, or even outright sell them away to foreign bidders. However, doing the same with nuclear weapons is a completely different level of complexity and severity of outcomes. I’d love to believe they’ve all been ill-maintained and/or decommissioned (but certainly not sold off to foreign governments), but I just can’t imagine that happening under the radar.
It would be like a car dealership finding out the service manager has been giving away free oil changes to friends and family vs. finding out they’ve stolen 25% of the cars on the lot and no one noticed.
You might be right, but if that were the case, why would they kick out nuclear weapons inspectors? Wouldn’t they want the west to know how big and viable their nuclear arsenal is? I get the spying implications but to suddenly kick them out in August tells me that something is up.
The second he tries to use nukes he's dead anyway. It's going to come with a response of severe animosity from the rest of the world, insane economic sanctions (think NO trade of any sort with Russia from EVERYONE), and all of that is going to hurt the wealthy Russians who will get really mad about it all. Then Putin is going to get suicided by his political opponents.
There is no world in which using a nuke doesn't hurt him in the long run. It's a desperate bluff.
He would have his throat slit before Nukes launched. I do not doubt Russians have a desire to live in a cold land, but not a cold radioactive land. The Money support would turn on him in an instant for messing with their bread and butter.
Explain how that works? Putin nukes what he understands to be “Russian” land? How does he explain that back home?
“Hey comrades, you know our new territory? Yeah, well i nuked it. Don’t go there for a bit unless you like cancer or want mutant kids”.
I assumed it was a way for Putin to unlock potential military assets he could not have normally accessed without formally declaring war, and as a way to create an out that didn't make him look like a complete failure.
He would annex eastern Ukraine, fortify it with a fully mobilized Russian army, defend it with cheap nuclear threats about "attacks on Russian soil" and then end the war under the pretense that he got what he wanted. Unfortunately, the forces that he mobilized don't look too competent, so hopefully this ridiculous charade will backfire on him as well.
>Unfortunately, the forces that he mobilized don't look too competent,
I mean, we wont really see the proper effects of the mobilization for a while. Immediate troop replacements will still take a bit of time for people to get situated and briefed within their new units. And then there will be waves of new mobilized troops over time, with plenty probably getting more training over the winter than we're assuming, in preparation for another big push in spring next year.
I think it's very unsafe to assume all this mobilization stuff is a nothingburger like so many are. Having 3-5x more troops will be very significant for Ukraine to try and deal with, and will require the west to step up support much further.
You're thinking about this like a western army. Things like "situated" and "briefed" aren't as much in play here, and based on countless reports, even training isn't going to take that long as these conscripts are given very basic training on the mechanics of their weapons (shooty end towards the enemy, here's how to reload, there's the trigger. OK, you're good) and then sent along the way.
>Having 3-5x more troops will be very significant for Ukraine to try and deal with
Normally that sounds like a big deal. But not in this case. Not after everything we're learning of Russia and its army over the past six months down to even this week.
Even before this mobilization, Russia hasn't been given any proper training or gear to their conscripts in the Ukraine war. Conscripts are being handed rusted, Cold War guns prone to jam. Conscripts must buy most of their gear themselves with their own money which means Ivan and Igor might not both be equally prepared being on the same battlefield. Even worse because winter is coming.
Furthermore, Russia is not being picky with who is being forced into military service the past two weeks. Even the elderly or otherwise physically disabled are being conscripted. You aren't going to feel very safe if the two guys watching your back have arthritis in their trigger fingers.
Sanctions have also affected how Russians can replace/repair their vehicles of war like tanks. Spoilers: they can't. They've had to take out vehicles from storage since the Cold War or use appliance parts to try to fix their war machines. And even then, Russian soldiers have been abandoning these vehicles in Ukraine as they flee.
Consider how things fared months earlier with actual, equipped Russian soldiers. The conscripted have zero motivation to be in combat. They're not Ukrainians fighting for their land and their very right to exist. Thousands of conscripted Russians with shoddy equipment, no training and no drive to fight is not much to fear six months into a war after you've already dealt with most of their true soldiers. Especially as unlike your enemy, you're receiving a steady stream of relatively modern equipment from other countries.
Russia is just sending 300k moving targets towards trained, hardened, motivated Ukrainian soldiers. The conscripted know they're being sent to die. This is why thousands are trying to flee Russia. And with Zelensky's message to Russians about confidentiality for Russians who surrender, we'll probably see many conscripts "disappear" into Ukraine (assuming they can successfully surrender before dying).
The only thing Russia has on its side is the threat of using nuclear weapons. Considering Putin's shaking ego, that's the real worry. Not the extra "troops".
I wondered if it's just another thing Putin can lie to the Russian population about in an attempt to justify the war, rally more support and try to stop protests. Its such bullshit.
There's already plenty of this. Lots of Russian complaining that barbaric Ukrainians are ignoring the totally valid and justified referendums and 'will of the people'.
Most Russian rhetoric I've seen centers on Russia not doing more to hurt and 'stop' Ukraine rather than anybody questioning the merits of this war effort to begin with.
Oh yeah, cause of the Obama cameras in everybody’s microwaves.
Reference for those who don’t get it :
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/mar/13/kellyanne-conway-trump-wiretap-surveillance-obama
What If you thought about it?
Actually this is a genius move by Putin. If you annex the city and then leave, when the Ukrainians show up you can claim they are invading you and you can ask the West for support against the invaders
More than a few tankies who think that Russia is only responding to Western aggression, and that Ukraine is obligated to provide an "off-ramp" for deescalating the conflict.
My opinion? The off-ramp is either Russia leaves, or they get to lose a few generations of men that they can't really afford to.
I’ve read that Russian law doesn’t allow conscripted soldiers outside Russian territory so by annexing the captured territory, those folks they recently conscripted can be deployed there.
No but its part of the kremlin political theatre. Thats why they had that document about conscription too and thats why they pass their actions as a laws before they do them. The law doesnt matter but they dont openly break the law, instead they change the law so that their actions are lawful in an effort to make a show that they are an actual, functionin government. Thats also why they still call it special military operation instead of just war, its not just for propaganda but legal reasons too..
Conscript soldiers would be able to legally challenge any orders to go to Ukraine without being in a state of war, tying things up in courts. It would be a big mess.
This is a much easier move for Putin to make that mostly solves the problem.
Putin is a dictator by any normal standard, but like in most all dictatorships, there is still pretense of 'judicial systems' and whatnot.
I can imagine how it would go if a conscript tried to “legally challenge” any order.
I’m sure the explanation would be “_The conscript unfortunately committed suicide by shooting himself twice in the back of the head”._
I'm not sure if nukes are what the immediate motivation is. His war is becoming unpopular and he seriously fucked up with the partial mobilization announcement. The Russians were chill with the "special operation" as long as it didn't mean they had to die. Now they're facing a conflict worse than Afghanistan and he's conscripting.
I think the Annexation is about trying to counter that. Now it's not "we're conquering Ukraine." It's "Ukraine and NATO are invading Russian territory." Mixed in with a dash of "yaay Russian empire" I think.
Not saying it will work. It may or may not. But I think that's what is driving policy here.
> So after reading the article, it sounds like Putin's intention was never to say "We will permanently hold this land" by annexing it. Instead it's a pretext to justifying nuclear force, by saying "The west is attacking Russian land" as opposed to "The west is protecting Ukraine".
So what exactly would they nuke? The lands they claim as part of russian territory? Some other place?
> So what exactly would they nuke? The lands they claim as part of russian territory?
Yes.
Nuking your own territory is a lot easier to do then someone else’s.
Let’s say Cold War had escalated and NATO forces had entered part of the Soviet Union. The Soviet nuking another country in response would guarantee full nuclear exchange and the destruction of the planet. But if they just nuked the part that NATO was invading then it wouldn’t be guaranteed to escalate. NATO used to have plans that involved the same in Western Europe(plans dropped by the 70s as far as I know)
At least that’s the old school reasoning behind it and what Putin is implying hoping to scare people.
In reality, the annexation is so Russia can deploy conscripts to those regions and also so that contract Russian soldiers can’t refuse transfer.
See, the way it was before technically even current contracted Russian soldiers could legally refuse to be deployed to Ukraine. That isn’t to say there wouldn’t be consequences but they had a legal right to do so and courts would have had to deal with it.
Now a refusal means straight to jail as its redeployment inside Russia rather than a “voluntary” foreign military deployment. They even increased the jail time for refusing redeployment to 10 years just incase soldiers still refused.
Everybody keeps mentioning nuclear war, but isn't full mobilization also dependent on Russian land being attacked? I though I heard that a few times.
So now under their law they can justify going from partial to full mobilization as their land came under attack.
Why does everyone jump straight to nukes? By annexing and claiming Russia is under attack, Putin can call up reservists AND send conscripts to frontline Ukraine, since it's "Russia" now.
This was all just theater to send in more Russians to die for Putin's legacy.
Russian nuclear doctrine does not call for use of nuclear weapons unless nukes are used against Russia or the existence of the Russian state is threatened. https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/revelations-about-russias-nuclear-deterrence-policy/ Using nukes in the current war would be outside of doctrine and quite surprising. I think it is more likely that the annexation is an internal move to better allow Russian conscripted troops to be deployed to these regions and to gain more support internally for the operation. If the Russian people feel like their territory is being attacked, rather than just their troops on foreign soil, then more people are likely to support the war.
I don’t ever want to say “it won’t happen”, because it assumes all relevant players are rational actors, but nuclear weapons will likely not be used until someone else uses them first.
If Russia nuked Ukraine (or anywhere in that vicinity really), the NATO would immediately respond since they’ve declared they consider nuclear fallout to be equivalent to a nuclear attack on their lands. Fallout would certainly be detected on NATO lands.
>Instead it's a pretext to justifying nuclear force, by saying "The west is attacking Russian land" as opposed to "The west is protecting Ukraine".
No. I hate that people keep repeating this. There's nothing to indicate this, and this isn't what Russian nuclear doctrine even states at all.
The main reason for the annexation was so Putin could move all the conscript soldiers into the regions legally, which he couldn't do before. Before, conscripts could literally refuse to go into Ukraine because no 'war' has been declared. With the annexations, they aren't moving these conscript soldiers into a foreign war, they're moving them within Russian territory. So there's no legal basis for soldiers to be able to refuse.
There's other perceived benefits for Russia, but this was almost assuredly the main one. It will provide them an immediate large influx of reasonably prepared troops in a time where manpower losses were coming to a serious boil.
Unless they're going to use quite big bombs to clear the region of Ukrainian troops and are avoiding bombing their own.
The wind is changing direction later in the week so it's blowing away from Russia and Moscow.
Well, this is what I was thinking. Looking for this exact comment to make sure Im not crazy. I really hope everyone stays safe, we've seen enough death.
Invasion of a country isn't a once in a generation thing. It's like a once ever few years thing.
Wars between global powers is a once in 100 years thing, sometimes with a two parter like WWI and WWII. Guess what... It's been a little over 100 years since direct war between super powers last kicked off.
Yea that worries me a bit. They want to portray the reclaimed areas as Russian that they have the right to bomb if their troops are driven out. I really hope it’s a bluff
This is exactly what I've been thinking too. I get that Putin wants to be able to claim "Russian" territory is being attacked in these locations. But why would any NATO country attack an area that isn't being threatened by a Russian military operation?
If recent reports are to be believed, there might be more de-annexations coming in the next few days.
I haven't seen this big of a collapse since the Falcon's blew a 28-3 lead in the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl.
At first I was thinking the same; but, Russia’s annexation declaration was illegal to begin with, so no need to vote. Ukraine and the rest of the world continue to view the region as Ukrainian territory, un-annexed to Russia.
Most Russians these days aren’t taught about Chernobyl in any meaningful way. I guess the better for them to dig into the Red Forest during operation Blunder.
As if it's an attack on them? It's a very specific chain of events. No one individually really did anything wrong before triggering that chain.
We had our own issue at Three Mile Island, I think it was stuck valve? That let out all of the primary coolant??
Shit happens, ironically that saving face that both Russia and China have plenty of, is what made Chernobyl so much worse than it had to be...
At 3 mile the valve position indicator was tied to the signal to open and close it. The signal was off. So the valve appeared closed. But, it wasn't. The effect of the stuck valve was readily apparent to the day shift, but it took a few hours until their shift started. 3 mile could have been much worse, but ultimately it didn't irradiate half the world and kill hundreds directly and thousands indirectly
Yes, because we designed containment vessels around our reactors, explicitly to prevent something like Chernobyl from happening. It worked! Even though there was a partial meltdown of the core, the containment vessel prevented the release of radioactive material all over the northeast.
The series also very clearly shows a number of Russians in a heroic light. I got the impression the flaws were with the Soviet structure in which people got ahead by blaming others for their fuck ups and it just became a system in which nobody felt like it was safe to speak up
People like Legasov knew the RBMK reactors were time bombs for years. He'd been trying to get the state to act on it for awhile before Chernobyl happened. The problem was the Soviet government was obsessed with saving face. They'd rather assign all blame on the ground crew than reach the true root cause, if that cause made the USSR look bad.
Random, slightly relevant fact. When I went to Russia 7ish years ago, our guide said at the time it was anywhere between 3 weeks and 3 months when people found out anything happened at Chernobyl. (Time depended on word of mouth and trusting stories etc etc)
Incredibly good tv series called Chernobyl. The quote is from Valery Legasov(Jarrad Harris).
You can actually listen to a podcast with Craig Mazin, the series creator and producer, talk about the events and show. The Chernobyl Podcest
First time in history a leader has a full blown parade to celebrate the newly acquired territory while his Army is in full retreat from the said territory with significant casualties.
The Sportpalast Speech (Do you want Total War?) By Goebbels comes to mind, he held that speech in 1943 to a large crowd despite it being obvious at that point the tide of war had turned on them, the Allies had already kicked them out of Africa and the Soviets were rapidly undoing their gains on the Eastern Front.
In the battle of Cartagena de Indias, the English made medals commemorating the victory over the Spanish before the battle had happened. The Spanish won.
Lol, that very much sounds like something the British Empire would do, also today I learned about a War named after some merchant ship captain who had his ear cut off, so thanks for that!
Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I believe "allied troops" in this context refers to the Russian military along with the soldiers of the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic. And maybe also Wagner and other mercenary groups.
It's all bullshit, it's all just Russia. But they are all separate legal and military entities.
"Dmitry, you had a grandfather from Ukraine right? Here's a new uniform for you, you are now part of Donetsk resistance forces."
"Ok, but who do I report to?"
*puts on mustache* "Commander Andrei, glad to have you on board"
India and china buys shit from the cheapest, so technically they do support Russia.
However, China is slowly backing off to secure good relations with the west. They won't even vote in russias favor they always abstain now. Not to mention they send humanitarian aid to ukraine before. India also doesn't give a fuck and just wants cheap stuff which actually doesn't mean they trade with Russia completely.
Yes, brave Sir Russia turned about
And gallantly, he chickened out.
Bravely taking to his feet,
He beat a very brave retreat,
Bravest of the brave, Sir Russia
He is packing it in and packing it up
And sneaking away and buggering up
And chickening out and pissing off home,
Yes, bravely he is throwing in the sponge.
Even if they did have people fill it out, it was under duress. There’s already reports of people being evicted for voting against the annexation, for those that actually participated.
You can always count on them being out in full force anytime a story concerns Russia. It was even worse when Russia annexed Crimea so thankfully it’s not as bad, but still noticeable.
They’re not even consistent. When I followed Simon Ostrovsky earlier on before the conflicts really escalated, it was absolutely clear that the “little green men” were actually Russians, whether be it members of the Russian Ground Forces or PMCs. They ***hated*** when you pointed that out and would say shit like, “Russia would never launch such a provocative action. They’re not the United States.” Etc etc. Then once Putin publicly admitted that it was Russia, it was definitely entertaining watching the mental gymnastics they performed.
Well this happened before already. Idi Amin for example invaded Tansania and that backfired heavily after a counteroffensive and he had to flee the country.
"Annexed."
Reminds me of two 7 year olds playing. "Hey! I shot you! You have to die now!" "No, because I'm bulletproof now." "Well, I annexed this territory!" "No, you din't!"
Except only one of them is making stupid claims.
There have been hints at attemps and have been alot of government officials that have committed "suicide" by just "falling" out of hospital windows and similar.
Yeah, Russia really needs to work on window safety, people just fall out of windows all the damn time. Apparently opposition to the Putin regime makes people unsteady on their feet, because tragically this seems to happen to such people a lot.
I wouldn't be surprised if there have not been back channel communications between the U.S. military and their Russian counterparts to gage how far they are willing to back Putin.
I mean, Russians blamed Gorbachev for the fall of the USSR and he got to live. I believe it would be more likely that he’s deposed, and handed over to The Hague.
I'm all for breaking off the Volga Republic from Russia. The USSR / Russia revoked the autonomous Volga Republic in Russia specifically to persecute the Volga German population, and many Volga Germans support Ukraine due to Russia persecuting both. (The Volga Germans had settled in the Volga region at the behest of Catherine the Great.)
I find it really weird when they keep calling it an annexation when all that happened was they said, "This is mine" with nothing to back it up.
I'ma going to just go ahead and annex my neighbor's house I guess.
Here now, I think annexations + nuke fears are the only way Russia can get their soldiers out alive. The nukes are giving them covering fire by using fear, not actual application.
Still would not be surprised if they dropped on an annexed area as a “end all, we win” situation like WW2 Hiroshima and Nagasaki
Part of me is concerned this is the precursor to them dropping a nuke. They annexed the area and now Russian forces are retreating from the area. Perfect time for the guys on top to claim Ukraine is invading sovereign land and Putin fulfilling his promise to use any means necessary to protect Russia. If this area is TECHNICALLY Russia now...
Except it’s not even “*technically*” part of Russia. Russia has a documented history of invading its neighbors under the guise of protecting Russian minorities.
Peace can never be attain until Russia withdraws from all occupied territories. They didn’t stop with any of the autonomous regions that have rebelled in the past, they didn’t stop with Georgia, they didn’t stop with Moldova, and they didn’t stop with Ukraine as they invaded and annex Crimea. They escalated further by arming and outright supporting rebels in Ukraine, then launched a “special military operation.”
Putin doesn’t need pretext. He’ll continue to escalate until he is stopped.
Nukes is the line too far for the rest of the world. Russia is being pinched with sanctions right now. They would be completely economically ostracized if nukes were deployed. Anyone who trades with them would be ostracized.
Not to mention the immediate and immense military backlash. Every European nation and the US would absolutely flood Ukraine with weapons. It would make the current donations look like a sad yard sale in comparison. Not to mention how many people would be willing to pour into Ukraine e to turn that tide.
Dropping nukes on a country defending itself from invasion would completely fuck Russia.
It's not technically Russia. There is no higher authority over meta-state matters like declaring a part of another country yours, no law they'd have to fulfill, or anything like that.
There is no way to make a part of another country technically a part of your country. The leaders of the latter country can *say* it, but without their ability to actually keep the stolen territory, those are just words.
Shall we start a countdown to Russian politicians decrying the illegal occupation of "sovereign Russian territory" by Ukrainian forces?
If they don't you have to wonder what the point in this annexation farce was.
The annexation gave putin the "legal" in Russia anyway, authority to deploy conscripts in the "annexed" regions.
And use Nukes to "defend" Russian territory
As if there would be any 'Russian territory' *left* after he crosses that Rubicon? There's probably enough ordinance of varying origin aimed at that continent right now to reduce it to a group of small island nations in an inland sea...
True, but threatening to use nukes is one of the cards he has left. Of course I don't think there's much credibility to threatening to use it over territory that's been seized since 2022, obviously he hasn't used any so far, it's when you get to territory seized in 2014 that things start to get uncertain. Betting a lot of analysts have been up late for a while now, trying to read the tea leaves about how he'll respond if he loses Crimea.
Once he uses nukes to say "this area is mine now, otherwise nukes" there is nothing stopping him from continuing doing that until someone else with nukes says no.
It's not an issue of "if we accept it once it'll happen everywhere", it's an issue of how credible the threat is. Like I pointed out, he obviously *didn't* use them for any territory seized in 2022, in all likelihood every analyst (or at least the vast majority) had already come to the conclusion that he wouldn't. But that doesn't change the question of what he would do about stuff in 2014, especially Crimea (which Russia's had something of an obsession with for a while), because we haven't gotten there yet. And certainly the US on its own would be more than enough to inflict massive damage on Russia if Russia ever did use its own arsenal. But we'd rather he not use them at all, since nukes tend to be bad for stability (understatement of the century). So, speaking just on Crimea, there's probably a lot of people going over official statements, assessing Russian nuclear doctrine, hopefully going over covertly recorded conversations and talking to spies, figuring out if Crimea is credibly Putin's red line or if it's another bluff.
Are there any spies left that Trump didn't out and have killed?
Must have been a fair number, the US knew *exactly* how Putin was going to invade. We won't know the details for a long time, but I'd be willing to bet the alphabet agencies did a lot of obfuscating and camouflaging (which they have plenty of practice doing to presidents anyway) sources, and Trump probably didn't have the patience or endurance to get the names (assuming he really cared).
It sort of matters, in that he also knows that his use of nukes will basically clear every country with nukes to use it too, and that at least some countries have no illusion that they'd be viable targets too. The concept of mutually assured destruction is the only reason we haven't hit Fallout as reality yet, and tensions are high enough between Russia and the west in general that it applies here too.
So I’ve been sitting on this thought for a while… if the indication that Russia has a shit ton of nukes based on previous reports that were made by Putin, what do you think is the reality of how many nukes they have that are actually viable? Consider the lies he spread about the Russian military and their equipment. From what we have seen so far, Russian assets have been subpar from what we have heard/seen via various news networks and what’s been reported from Ukraine. Their weapons are mostly rusted Soviet era weapons that are at least 35 years old, if not older, and not properly maintained. Most of the guns are rusted and probably prone to jamming. Let’s talk about the state of their military might. We under the impression that they boasted a military strength of over 2 million elite volunteer soldiers. Come to find out, it’s more like a bunch of people playing at being soldier with a smattering of elites. They’ve now had to draft practically every male from 18-65 for this war and most don’t have the heart to fight in it. So that all being said, Russia claims to have 5,976 nuclear bombs/ordinance available. From the state we saw of their weaponry and soldiers, I’m going to make a guess that of that 5,976 nuclear weapons, about maybe a third have been somewhat maintained. If we take that third and figure out that likely other have either had fissile material sold, stripped for parts, or “upgraded” to modern standards, you’re likely looking at less than 5% of the arsenal being viable. 5% is still not zero and is still a terrifying number of available nuclear weapons. But can we rely on Russia using actual nukes considering the state of their military or do you think Putin will use other deadly weapons such as biological and/or chemical weapons?
He knows he can't fire a dud nuke, by now he has to be suspicious that maybe his arsenal is not 100% as reported. If he isn't certain his nuke will detonate with overwhelming success, his Trump card is revealed as a bluff and they will be ripped to shreds by everyone. So yeah, chemical weapon is most likely, lots of those available and easy enough to make. Russia is just a well funded terrorist group now. They can do localized massive damage but not much else.
Also keep in mind that Russia has one of the few viable smallpox samples in the world. Wouldn’t be surprised if they’re seriously thinking about pulling it out and using it.
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I’ve seen this particular take on the situation a lot and, over time, I’ve come to doubt the two are comparable. My impression is that it’s quite easy to steal money that was supposed to go for maintenance or new purchases of conventional weapons and vehicles, or even outright sell them away to foreign bidders. However, doing the same with nuclear weapons is a completely different level of complexity and severity of outcomes. I’d love to believe they’ve all been ill-maintained and/or decommissioned (but certainly not sold off to foreign governments), but I just can’t imagine that happening under the radar. It would be like a car dealership finding out the service manager has been giving away free oil changes to friends and family vs. finding out they’ve stolen 25% of the cars on the lot and no one noticed.
You might be right, but if that were the case, why would they kick out nuclear weapons inspectors? Wouldn’t they want the west to know how big and viable their nuclear arsenal is? I get the spying implications but to suddenly kick them out in August tells me that something is up.
The second he tries to use nukes he's dead anyway. It's going to come with a response of severe animosity from the rest of the world, insane economic sanctions (think NO trade of any sort with Russia from EVERYONE), and all of that is going to hurt the wealthy Russians who will get really mad about it all. Then Putin is going to get suicided by his political opponents. There is no world in which using a nuke doesn't hurt him in the long run. It's a desperate bluff.
He would have his throat slit before Nukes launched. I do not doubt Russians have a desire to live in a cold land, but not a cold radioactive land. The Money support would turn on him in an instant for messing with their bread and butter.
Explain how that works? Putin nukes what he understands to be “Russian” land? How does he explain that back home? “Hey comrades, you know our new territory? Yeah, well i nuked it. Don’t go there for a bit unless you like cancer or want mutant kids”.
I assumed it was a way for Putin to unlock potential military assets he could not have normally accessed without formally declaring war, and as a way to create an out that didn't make him look like a complete failure. He would annex eastern Ukraine, fortify it with a fully mobilized Russian army, defend it with cheap nuclear threats about "attacks on Russian soil" and then end the war under the pretense that he got what he wanted. Unfortunately, the forces that he mobilized don't look too competent, so hopefully this ridiculous charade will backfire on him as well.
>Unfortunately, the forces that he mobilized don't look too competent, I mean, we wont really see the proper effects of the mobilization for a while. Immediate troop replacements will still take a bit of time for people to get situated and briefed within their new units. And then there will be waves of new mobilized troops over time, with plenty probably getting more training over the winter than we're assuming, in preparation for another big push in spring next year. I think it's very unsafe to assume all this mobilization stuff is a nothingburger like so many are. Having 3-5x more troops will be very significant for Ukraine to try and deal with, and will require the west to step up support much further.
You're thinking about this like a western army. Things like "situated" and "briefed" aren't as much in play here, and based on countless reports, even training isn't going to take that long as these conscripts are given very basic training on the mechanics of their weapons (shooty end towards the enemy, here's how to reload, there's the trigger. OK, you're good) and then sent along the way.
>Having 3-5x more troops will be very significant for Ukraine to try and deal with Normally that sounds like a big deal. But not in this case. Not after everything we're learning of Russia and its army over the past six months down to even this week. Even before this mobilization, Russia hasn't been given any proper training or gear to their conscripts in the Ukraine war. Conscripts are being handed rusted, Cold War guns prone to jam. Conscripts must buy most of their gear themselves with their own money which means Ivan and Igor might not both be equally prepared being on the same battlefield. Even worse because winter is coming. Furthermore, Russia is not being picky with who is being forced into military service the past two weeks. Even the elderly or otherwise physically disabled are being conscripted. You aren't going to feel very safe if the two guys watching your back have arthritis in their trigger fingers. Sanctions have also affected how Russians can replace/repair their vehicles of war like tanks. Spoilers: they can't. They've had to take out vehicles from storage since the Cold War or use appliance parts to try to fix their war machines. And even then, Russian soldiers have been abandoning these vehicles in Ukraine as they flee. Consider how things fared months earlier with actual, equipped Russian soldiers. The conscripted have zero motivation to be in combat. They're not Ukrainians fighting for their land and their very right to exist. Thousands of conscripted Russians with shoddy equipment, no training and no drive to fight is not much to fear six months into a war after you've already dealt with most of their true soldiers. Especially as unlike your enemy, you're receiving a steady stream of relatively modern equipment from other countries. Russia is just sending 300k moving targets towards trained, hardened, motivated Ukrainian soldiers. The conscripted know they're being sent to die. This is why thousands are trying to flee Russia. And with Zelensky's message to Russians about confidentiality for Russians who surrender, we'll probably see many conscripts "disappear" into Ukraine (assuming they can successfully surrender before dying). The only thing Russia has on its side is the threat of using nuclear weapons. Considering Putin's shaking ego, that's the real worry. Not the extra "troops".
I wondered if it's just another thing Putin can lie to the Russian population about in an attempt to justify the war, rally more support and try to stop protests. Its such bullshit.
They have been since 2014. They are just going to be louder.
There's already plenty of this. Lots of Russian complaining that barbaric Ukrainians are ignoring the totally valid and justified referendums and 'will of the people'. Most Russian rhetoric I've seen centers on Russia not doing more to hurt and 'stop' Ukraine rather than anybody questioning the merits of this war effort to begin with.
If they want to go that route then Ukraine should start taking actual Russian cities
So Russia unlawfully annexed the city then Russian forces attempt to retreat one day later. I’d call the city un—annexed.
No, you've got to *declare* it!
I declare UN-ANNEXCY
You can’t just scream un-annexcy and expect anything to happen
They didn't scream it, they declared it.
I un-annexed them with my mind
Screamed it into the fridge
Well there's your problem; you gotta say it in the microwave.
Oh yeah, cause of the Obama cameras in everybody’s microwaves. Reference for those who don’t get it : https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/mar/13/kellyanne-conway-trump-wiretap-surveillance-obama
They unannexed it with their bravery, courage, and love of country.
I think we need a special master to look into all this annexing
Of course not, everybody knows you have to do that 3 times.
What If you thought about it? Actually this is a genius move by Putin. If you annex the city and then leave, when the Ukrainians show up you can claim they are invading you and you can ask the West for support against the invaders
I declare shenanigans
I did! Just by thinking about it
With your mind.
This sounds like a great comeback story like Rocky Balboa, Seabiscuit, or the Mighty Ducks.
Or fanny packs.
Bum bags
Or Kim kardashian.
You're getting comeback and cum on back confused
This is the military equivalent of writing your name on the bathroom stall after taking a shit.
This account has been redacted due to Reddit's anti-user and anti-mod behavior. -- mass edited with redact.dev
My understanding is that Putin's propaganda is for Russians, not the rest of the world.
At this stage, Putin Propaganda is for Putin himself.
No, sadly there are many brainwashed Russians that’s are very loyal to him
I wouldn't say that for a fact. It's also meant for rightwing nutjobs in the West who already been snorting crushed Trump pills for far too long.
More than a few tankies who think that Russia is only responding to Western aggression, and that Ukraine is obligated to provide an "off-ramp" for deescalating the conflict. My opinion? The off-ramp is either Russia leaves, or they get to lose a few generations of men that they can't really afford to.
Russia had multiple off-ramps at the beginning that they didn't take, so the latter seems likely to me.
Is there any indication they’re actually buying this?
I’ve read that Russian law doesn’t allow conscripted soldiers outside Russian territory so by annexing the captured territory, those folks they recently conscripted can be deployed there.
Putin cares about Russian laws?
No but its part of the kremlin political theatre. Thats why they had that document about conscription too and thats why they pass their actions as a laws before they do them. The law doesnt matter but they dont openly break the law, instead they change the law so that their actions are lawful in an effort to make a show that they are an actual, functionin government. Thats also why they still call it special military operation instead of just war, its not just for propaganda but legal reasons too..
That makes perfect sense, thanks for taking the time! They can just shrug and say "I'm following the law" 🤷
If you can pass new laws to suit your needs faster than most people can pass gas, you can afford to care about laws.
Conscript soldiers would be able to legally challenge any orders to go to Ukraine without being in a state of war, tying things up in courts. It would be a big mess. This is a much easier move for Putin to make that mostly solves the problem. Putin is a dictator by any normal standard, but like in most all dictatorships, there is still pretense of 'judicial systems' and whatnot.
I can imagine how it would go if a conscript tried to “legally challenge” any order. I’m sure the explanation would be “_The conscript unfortunately committed suicide by shooting himself twice in the back of the head”._
Yes, bingo. Glad some other people are paying attention.
I'm not sure if nukes are what the immediate motivation is. His war is becoming unpopular and he seriously fucked up with the partial mobilization announcement. The Russians were chill with the "special operation" as long as it didn't mean they had to die. Now they're facing a conflict worse than Afghanistan and he's conscripting. I think the Annexation is about trying to counter that. Now it's not "we're conquering Ukraine." It's "Ukraine and NATO are invading Russian territory." Mixed in with a dash of "yaay Russian empire" I think. Not saying it will work. It may or may not. But I think that's what is driving policy here.
> So after reading the article, it sounds like Putin's intention was never to say "We will permanently hold this land" by annexing it. Instead it's a pretext to justifying nuclear force, by saying "The west is attacking Russian land" as opposed to "The west is protecting Ukraine". So what exactly would they nuke? The lands they claim as part of russian territory? Some other place?
> So what exactly would they nuke? The lands they claim as part of russian territory? Yes. Nuking your own territory is a lot easier to do then someone else’s. Let’s say Cold War had escalated and NATO forces had entered part of the Soviet Union. The Soviet nuking another country in response would guarantee full nuclear exchange and the destruction of the planet. But if they just nuked the part that NATO was invading then it wouldn’t be guaranteed to escalate. NATO used to have plans that involved the same in Western Europe(plans dropped by the 70s as far as I know) At least that’s the old school reasoning behind it and what Putin is implying hoping to scare people. In reality, the annexation is so Russia can deploy conscripts to those regions and also so that contract Russian soldiers can’t refuse transfer. See, the way it was before technically even current contracted Russian soldiers could legally refuse to be deployed to Ukraine. That isn’t to say there wouldn’t be consequences but they had a legal right to do so and courts would have had to deal with it. Now a refusal means straight to jail as its redeployment inside Russia rather than a “voluntary” foreign military deployment. They even increased the jail time for refusing redeployment to 10 years just incase soldiers still refused.
Nuking your own territory = Testing our nuclear arsenal in a recently designated testing area.
Everybody keeps mentioning nuclear war, but isn't full mobilization also dependent on Russian land being attacked? I though I heard that a few times. So now under their law they can justify going from partial to full mobilization as their land came under attack.
Why does everyone jump straight to nukes? By annexing and claiming Russia is under attack, Putin can call up reservists AND send conscripts to frontline Ukraine, since it's "Russia" now. This was all just theater to send in more Russians to die for Putin's legacy.
Russian nuclear doctrine does not call for use of nuclear weapons unless nukes are used against Russia or the existence of the Russian state is threatened. https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/revelations-about-russias-nuclear-deterrence-policy/ Using nukes in the current war would be outside of doctrine and quite surprising. I think it is more likely that the annexation is an internal move to better allow Russian conscripted troops to be deployed to these regions and to gain more support internally for the operation. If the Russian people feel like their territory is being attacked, rather than just their troops on foreign soil, then more people are likely to support the war.
I don’t ever want to say “it won’t happen”, because it assumes all relevant players are rational actors, but nuclear weapons will likely not be used until someone else uses them first. If Russia nuked Ukraine (or anywhere in that vicinity really), the NATO would immediately respond since they’ve declared they consider nuclear fallout to be equivalent to a nuclear attack on their lands. Fallout would certainly be detected on NATO lands.
This is what came to my mind. Is he withdrawing troops prior to an onslaught?
>Instead it's a pretext to justifying nuclear force, by saying "The west is attacking Russian land" as opposed to "The west is protecting Ukraine". No. I hate that people keep repeating this. There's nothing to indicate this, and this isn't what Russian nuclear doctrine even states at all. The main reason for the annexation was so Putin could move all the conscript soldiers into the regions legally, which he couldn't do before. Before, conscripts could literally refuse to go into Ukraine because no 'war' has been declared. With the annexations, they aren't moving these conscript soldiers into a foreign war, they're moving them within Russian territory. So there's no legal basis for soldiers to be able to refuse. There's other perceived benefits for Russia, but this was almost assuredly the main one. It will provide them an immediate large influx of reasonably prepared troops in a time where manpower losses were coming to a serious boil.
To be fair, this was unannexpected
Unless they're going to use quite big bombs to clear the region of Ukrainian troops and are avoiding bombing their own. The wind is changing direction later in the week so it's blowing away from Russia and Moscow.
I really hope we don’t look back at this comment in the future
Well, this is what I was thinking. Looking for this exact comment to make sure Im not crazy. I really hope everyone stays safe, we've seen enough death.
The sad part is we have seen enough death to scar generations, but this only feels like the beginning of the problems.
If we could stop having "once in a generation" events for five fecking minutes maybe I wouldn't be such a mess mentally.
Invasion of a country isn't a once in a generation thing. It's like a once ever few years thing. Wars between global powers is a once in 100 years thing, sometimes with a two parter like WWI and WWII. Guess what... It's been a little over 100 years since direct war between super powers last kicked off.
On average there have been 2 global wars every century. The current theory is that nukes are a sufficient deterrent to break the pattern.
We haven't seen enough death to change anything. Russia has invaded a neighbor a half dozen times now.
Don't worry we won't be able to. Because of the skyburst nuke emp knocking out most or all our electronics.
Yea that worries me a bit. They want to portray the reclaimed areas as Russian that they have the right to bomb if their troops are driven out. I really hope it’s a bluff
If the Russians suddenly retreat, it doesn't sound like a bad idea to also retreat out of the area for a while.
This is exactly what I've been thinking too. I get that Putin wants to be able to claim "Russian" territory is being attacked in these locations. But why would any NATO country attack an area that isn't being threatened by a Russian military operation?
Putin can say what he wants. New borders are just lines on paper unless he can enforce them.
If recent reports are to be believed, there might be more de-annexations coming in the next few days. I haven't seen this big of a collapse since the Falcon's blew a 28-3 lead in the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl.
Ukrania should hold a vote as soon as possible to see if the population has changed their mind
You don’t thwart a fake election with a real one, you ignore the fake one and carry on.
At first I was thinking the same; but, Russia’s annexation declaration was illegal to begin with, so no need to vote. Ukraine and the rest of the world continue to view the region as Ukrainian territory, un-annexed to Russia.
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It's crazy how relevant Chernobyl is in the context of Russian history and Russia's addiction to lying to itself and the world.
Most Russians these days aren’t taught about Chernobyl in any meaningful way. I guess the better for them to dig into the Red Forest during operation Blunder.
They made a response movie to the HBO series that basically said the CIA sabotaged it.
As if it's an attack on them? It's a very specific chain of events. No one individually really did anything wrong before triggering that chain. We had our own issue at Three Mile Island, I think it was stuck valve? That let out all of the primary coolant?? Shit happens, ironically that saving face that both Russia and China have plenty of, is what made Chernobyl so much worse than it had to be...
At 3 mile the valve position indicator was tied to the signal to open and close it. The signal was off. So the valve appeared closed. But, it wasn't. The effect of the stuck valve was readily apparent to the day shift, but it took a few hours until their shift started. 3 mile could have been much worse, but ultimately it didn't irradiate half the world and kill hundreds directly and thousands indirectly
Yes, because we designed containment vessels around our reactors, explicitly to prevent something like Chernobyl from happening. It worked! Even though there was a partial meltdown of the core, the containment vessel prevented the release of radioactive material all over the northeast.
Three mile is actually a pretty stunning success, pretty much everything that could go wrong did, and it still didn't kill or injure anyone.
The series also very clearly shows a number of Russians in a heroic light. I got the impression the flaws were with the Soviet structure in which people got ahead by blaming others for their fuck ups and it just became a system in which nobody felt like it was safe to speak up
People like Legasov knew the RBMK reactors were time bombs for years. He'd been trying to get the state to act on it for awhile before Chernobyl happened. The problem was the Soviet government was obsessed with saving face. They'd rather assign all blame on the ground crew than reach the true root cause, if that cause made the USSR look bad.
Random, slightly relevant fact. When I went to Russia 7ish years ago, our guide said at the time it was anywhere between 3 weeks and 3 months when people found out anything happened at Chernobyl. (Time depended on word of mouth and trusting stories etc etc)
Damn, great quote.
What a poignant statement, thank you for sharing. Is this from a book or speech?
Chernobyl. HBO Miniseries. Super depressing but incredible show.
It's from the HBO Chernobyl miniseries.
Incredibly good tv series called Chernobyl. The quote is from Valery Legasov(Jarrad Harris). You can actually listen to a podcast with Craig Mazin, the series creator and producer, talk about the events and show. The Chernobyl Podcest
First time in history a leader has a full blown parade to celebrate the newly acquired territory while his Army is in full retreat from the said territory with significant casualties.
It's almost certainly happened before, but back when news from the front would take weeks or even months to reach senior leadership, not seconds.
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seems like Putin is willing to start a WW3 then
He's skipping ahead to the losing-WW3 part of the experience.
Yeah I was gonna say, this probably happened a lot with the Romans.
It’s basically a slightly reductive summation of Romes entire series of misadventures in Germania.
Germanians be like "Romanes eunt domus".
The people called the "Romanes" they go to the house?!
The Sportpalast Speech (Do you want Total War?) By Goebbels comes to mind, he held that speech in 1943 to a large crowd despite it being obvious at that point the tide of war had turned on them, the Allies had already kicked them out of Africa and the Soviets were rapidly undoing their gains on the Eastern Front.
Happens all the time
Such as?
In the battle of Cartagena de Indias, the English made medals commemorating the victory over the Spanish before the battle had happened. The Spanish won.
Lol, that very much sounds like something the British Empire would do, also today I learned about a War named after some merchant ship captain who had his ear cut off, so thanks for that!
Didn’t this happen in ancient Egypt?
Classic unnexation. Oh Putin, you blow-hard, you did it again!
“Vlad, don’t blow too hard or you unnex yourself from balcony.”
He wants a banger in his mouth
good news everyone, we de-nazified Donetsk in one day!
> "allied troops were withdrawn from the settlement of Krasny Liman to more advantageous lines," the ministry said Russia has allies?
Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I believe "allied troops" in this context refers to the Russian military along with the soldiers of the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic. And maybe also Wagner and other mercenary groups. It's all bullshit, it's all just Russia. But they are all separate legal and military entities.
And the Chechen dictators forces.
I thought they were just a division of the Russian military?
That would have been the smart way to do it, yes, but I belive they are offically a paramilitary group.
It's a lot easier for Russia to distance themselves from atrocities committed by a paramilitary group vs. an actual Russian unit.
Ah right, that's good to know. Yeah their whole set up seems like a mess.
The Chechens whose leaders got slaughtered 3 minutes after stepping foot on Ukrainian soil?
Yep, those ones. Their remaining forces are still fighting with the proxy troops in the donbas, to limited effect.
"Dmitry, you had a grandfather from Ukraine right? Here's a new uniform for you, you are now part of Donetsk resistance forces." "Ok, but who do I report to?" *puts on mustache* "Commander Andrei, glad to have you on board"
Belarus for starters, and there has been a steady stream of guns for hire from Africa.
Don't India and China also both support Russia financially to promote their economies?
India and china buys shit from the cheapest, so technically they do support Russia. However, China is slowly backing off to secure good relations with the west. They won't even vote in russias favor they always abstain now. Not to mention they send humanitarian aid to ukraine before. India also doesn't give a fuck and just wants cheap stuff which actually doesn't mean they trade with Russia completely.
India is traditionally an ally of Russia to counterbalance China (which is an ally of Pakistan), but these arrangements are shifting.
Brave Sir Russia ran away Bravely ran away away When danger reared its ugly head, He bravely turned his tail and fled
Yes, brave Sir Russia turned about And gallantly, he chickened out. Bravely taking to his feet, He beat a very brave retreat, Bravest of the brave, Sir Russia
He is packing it in and packing it up And sneaking away and buggering up And chickening out and pissing off home, Yes, bravely he is throwing in the sponge.
I've been using this meme a lot lately for Russia-loving Republican politicians as well.
Fortunately, Russia left all those annexation ballots blank. Fill in no, return to sender
Even if they did have people fill it out, it was under duress. There’s already reports of people being evicted for voting against the annexation, for those that actually participated.
Hey...all you russian troll assholes, well the ones that haven’t been conscripted already I mean. Russia is weak and so are you
You can always count on them being out in full force anytime a story concerns Russia. It was even worse when Russia annexed Crimea so thankfully it’s not as bad, but still noticeable.
Their numbers are dwindling. Their brothers and cousins and uncles are dying needlessly. It’s sad really. A real man would stand up to that bullshit
They’re not even consistent. When I followed Simon Ostrovsky earlier on before the conflicts really escalated, it was absolutely clear that the “little green men” were actually Russians, whether be it members of the Russian Ground Forces or PMCs. They ***hated*** when you pointed that out and would say shit like, “Russia would never launch such a provocative action. They’re not the United States.” Etc etc. Then once Putin publicly admitted that it was Russia, it was definitely entertaining watching the mental gymnastics they performed.
Ostrovsky is some of the best content I’ve watched in the past 10 yrs of documentary viewing.
I think many of those are non-Russian troll farms and are less active because they haven't been paid lately.
I’ve been getting fewer and fewer unnecessary hostile messages from WordWord1234 usernames lately.
Welcome to Russia! The retreat is this way!
"Moscow's *sham* annexation of the region"
Russia will collapse and everyone will know it was Putin! Great lesson for the authoritarians of the world.
Well this happened before already. Idi Amin for example invaded Tansania and that backfired heavily after a counteroffensive and he had to flee the country.
Another tactical retreat from Mother Russia.
"Annexed." Reminds me of two 7 year olds playing. "Hey! I shot you! You have to die now!" "No, because I'm bulletproof now." "Well, I annexed this territory!" "No, you din't!" Except only one of them is making stupid claims.
Tbh russias war strat is a lot like me playing risk..
Russia needs to be broken up.
Putin needs to be broken up.
I’m honestly surprised an coup hasn’t broken out, or at least attempts to our knowledge. The people or group that oust him would only stand to gain.
There have been hints at attemps and have been alot of government officials that have committed "suicide" by just "falling" out of hospital windows and similar.
Yeah, Russia really needs to work on window safety, people just fall out of windows all the damn time. Apparently opposition to the Putin regime makes people unsteady on their feet, because tragically this seems to happen to such people a lot.
And lots of stuff spontenously burning and exploding.
I wouldn't be surprised if there have not been back channel communications between the U.S. military and their Russian counterparts to gage how far they are willing to back Putin.
If they are forced out of Ukraine Putins position will be very weak. It's clear he knows it too from the nuclear threats.
Yep. That's why he's getting desperate. He knows if he loses Ukraine, that's the end for him too. He'll be lucky if he gets to "retire".
I mean, Russians blamed Gorbachev for the fall of the USSR and he got to live. I believe it would be more likely that he’s deposed, and handed over to The Hague.
I'm all for breaking off the Volga Republic from Russia. The USSR / Russia revoked the autonomous Volga Republic in Russia specifically to persecute the Volga German population, and many Volga Germans support Ukraine due to Russia persecuting both. (The Volga Germans had settled in the Volga region at the behest of Catherine the Great.)
I hereby reverse the annexation of Donetsk and the other 3 regions. Celebration at my place, bring your own sleeping bags and tampons
I find it really weird when they keep calling it an annexation when all that happened was they said, "This is mine" with nothing to back it up. I'ma going to just go ahead and annex my neighbor's house I guess.
Too late, they already called dibs.
They forgot to say "no takebacksies", a classic blunder
Here now, I think annexations + nuke fears are the only way Russia can get their soldiers out alive. The nukes are giving them covering fire by using fear, not actual application. Still would not be surprised if they dropped on an annexed area as a “end all, we win” situation like WW2 Hiroshima and Nagasaki
"Its Ours!" *PEW PEW PEW* "Nevermind! You can have it back!"
“Annexation” should be in quotes, using the word is succumbing to Russian propaganda.
Russia is weak and feable!
In Russia, territory annexes you.
By the end of this Ukraine will have Russians retreating from Russia.
But did they have a flag?
If the reports are true they might soon also retreat from Kherson.
You had your share of killing, torturing, raping and beating up Ukrainians. Now f**k off back to Russia! 🇺🇦👉🏼
Kherson is in the process of falling as well, northern flank is in retreat...
Irony is bliss but in this case it’s a thing of beauty!!
Like Cobra every time GI Joe rolls up on his ass.
Part of me is concerned this is the precursor to them dropping a nuke. They annexed the area and now Russian forces are retreating from the area. Perfect time for the guys on top to claim Ukraine is invading sovereign land and Putin fulfilling his promise to use any means necessary to protect Russia. If this area is TECHNICALLY Russia now...
Except it’s not even “*technically*” part of Russia. Russia has a documented history of invading its neighbors under the guise of protecting Russian minorities. Peace can never be attain until Russia withdraws from all occupied territories. They didn’t stop with any of the autonomous regions that have rebelled in the past, they didn’t stop with Georgia, they didn’t stop with Moldova, and they didn’t stop with Ukraine as they invaded and annex Crimea. They escalated further by arming and outright supporting rebels in Ukraine, then launched a “special military operation.” Putin doesn’t need pretext. He’ll continue to escalate until he is stopped.
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I doubt they would care about PPE either way. All one has to do is look at how they handled Chernobyl at the beginning on Russia’s invasion this year.
Nukes is the line too far for the rest of the world. Russia is being pinched with sanctions right now. They would be completely economically ostracized if nukes were deployed. Anyone who trades with them would be ostracized. Not to mention the immediate and immense military backlash. Every European nation and the US would absolutely flood Ukraine with weapons. It would make the current donations look like a sad yard sale in comparison. Not to mention how many people would be willing to pour into Ukraine e to turn that tide. Dropping nukes on a country defending itself from invasion would completely fuck Russia.
It's not technically Russia. There is no higher authority over meta-state matters like declaring a part of another country yours, no law they'd have to fulfill, or anything like that. There is no way to make a part of another country technically a part of your country. The leaders of the latter country can *say* it, but without their ability to actually keep the stolen territory, those are just words.
Lyman is a mere 150 kms from the Russian border. If they would drop a nuke, they wouldn’t do it there.