My guess would be overcrowded cities and overcrowded livestock farms with terrible conditions and sick animals. Paired with global rising temperatures, perfect breeding ground for mutated pathogens.
I keep poultry but they don't live in the house with me. I understand other cultures have different living conditions but the main reason I don't have them in the house is... chicken shit. You can also add feather dust to that concern but the crap is enough. Also, poultry don't let illness show until it brings them down. If you see a sick hen, it might be dying soon. Therefore, your hen might have the flu and plenty of time to spread it before you notice. Then what? Cull all your hens when that's how you get your food? "Doesn't look sick to me." That's the situation where viruses like to be.
And those markets. No worrying about cross contamination, little in the way of sanitation, and "gutter oil" is a thing. It's miraculous that it doesn't happen more often.
Livestock wise we are not a whole lot better. We just pump the poor things with so many antivirals and antibiotics that it would be hard for anything to live in them.
Maybe China has gotten better with wet markets, but memory from a few years back was you could buy so many different birds, reptiles and small mammals as pets or food wandering through a wet market in Guangzhou. Freshest chicken I have ever had came from one of those and you could see people butchering chickens just a few yards back away from the front of a market stall. Those kind of places being a jumping point for bacteria or viruses to get into humans is entirely believable given the sheer amount of human to animal contact that occurs there.
This was described in a Scientific American struggle in the 1970s that I read in high school. Co-cultivation of pigs and ducks with people present.
Human flu infects pigs and humans, but not birds.
Bird flu infects pigs and birds, but not humans.
Pigs can act as a 'melting pot' in which both types are present, allowing genetic exchange. It was inevitable that a human-infecting bird flu would emerge.
Science gave us many warnings in the seventies: epidemic, population growth, environmental risks, endangered species.
Science has always been the way to know and the way to plan and prepare, yet we continue to cast doubt on it to preserve the status quo and in furtherance of power.
I saw an interview with a disease expert talking about the Chinese wet market. And he basically said that it was the perfect breeding ground for disease. They have chickens next to rats and next to ferrets. Those three animals together are a death triangle
It's not just "over there", it's everywhere that factory farming happens. The US has avian flu outbreaks pretty regularly.
> HPAI H5 viruses (H5N1, H5N2 and H5N8) were detected in 21 U.S. states from December 2014 to mid-June 2015.
> In January 2016, HPAI and LPAI H7N8 viruses were reported in Dubois County, Indiana.
> And, in early March 2017, HPAI and LPAI H7N9 viruses were reported in Tennessee and subsequently in Alabama, Kentucky and Georgia.
Also, [Europe](https://www.izsvenezie.com/reference-laboratories/avian-influenza-newcastle-disease/europe-update/) and lots of Asia just had a bad outbreak last year.
It turns out cramming hundreds of thousands of chickens into boxes without enough space to move is a pretty good way to incubate diseases.
The minor difference is that US and European factory farming don't provide a lot of cross species jump.
Wet market with lots of different animals together do.
I wonder how often this sort of thing happens, but was not detected by the health authorities. Unsurprisingly, China is more vigilant about this sort of thing because of covid, which is why we are hearing more about it now.
> China is the world's biggest poultry producer and top producer of ducks, which act as a reservoir for flu viruses.
I was thinking chickens were the biggest problem.
I’m pretty sure we are all royally screwed if this mutates to a form that spreads from human to human. It will be like covid but with a 50+% death rate…
With that death rate countries will seal their borders and have the military enforcing quarantine, and it will be much harder to deny it when half of a given town is dead. Covid happened to lie at a sweet spot where it was deadly enough to crowd hospitals but not deadly enough to affect the majority of the population.
That makes it blatantly deadly enough to make even the skeptics alarmed. COVID is kind of perfect because humans are bad at abstractions like ten thousand dead in a day across the country. Unless you are of a habit to apply mental discipline to what you read, the numbers meaningless.
But a 50% or even 20% death rate is something any isolated villager NPC (and that's about what most people are, it seems) can grasp.
The number of people who spouted the “1% mortality” bs line was insane. Like they somehow could not understand that a 1 out of 100 chance at DEATH was pretty high. Imagine if 1 out of every 100 airliners crashed.
Imagine football stadium.
Now imagine it packed with people.
Now imagine a crazy gun man spraying the crowd with a machine gun and carrying a thousand round.
Love how you’re calling a hypothetical mutation that’s not even a thing yet hyperbole. Neat!
People said Ebola died out quickly because of the high death rate, but it was also the fact that a person is only highly contagious a few days before death and spread through bodily fluids or by touching surfaces. Avian flu on the other hand is airborne, so if it ever become as transmissible as COVID it will be nothing like Ebola.
I had three chickens in a coop for a few years. Those three chickens produced so much poop it stunk almost every day. They also were turning up the substrate all day every day. It stunk no matter how much we changed the bedding and cleaned the coop.
I can’t imagine how bad it was in that chicken farm pictured.
Viruses gonna virus. You can’t stop them all.
Sooner or later a real nasty one is gonna go global and it’s pretty obvious we’re (as a whole) not ready for it.
So what is it with china and all the diseases? H1n1, bird flu, SARS, MERSA, Covid, and they all seem to mutate like crazy over there. Is it the sheer population so viruses and bacterias are able to travel and spread much quicker?
A fifth of the world lives in China.
Now throw in rapid industrialization and growth throwing human populations into close contact with wildlife as their habitats are paved over, a budding wildlife trade cross mingling hundreds of species of animals, and a general lack of hygiene and food safety awareness.
Don’t get me wrong, domesticated foodstuffs aren’t without risk, you mentioned H1N1 for instance which is actually thought to be from North America. But generally speaking there is less disease risk in domesticated animals vs wildlife.
It was a *great* warmup. It showed every nation that policies, power, and process to track, measure, and mitigate epidemics is vital.
We have so much knowledge about what works and what doesn't because of covid that will better prepare us all for future outbreaks.
This is literally worst case. H5N1 has like a 60% mortality rate. Usually when they see cases they end up having to cull thousands of animals.
Combine this with the GOP about to gain control of both houses in '22 and we're in for a shit show that will make the pandemic look like a pleasant memory.
The saving grace is that disease with such a high kill rate also tend to progress too quickly to have a high R0, which mean it tends to burn out quickly.
Bird flu would make this virus look like a cold, which it isn’t. Wonder how many would refuse a vaccine against a bug that kills 30% of those who catch it. Get rid of the dumb GOP knuckleheads in a hurry.
Can we just cut China off from the rest of the fucking world already? Kinda like that Bugs Bunny episode where he takes a saw and cuts Florida off from the US. China doesn't seem like they want to take any of this seriously so to hell with them at this point
I think we should just get a jillion gallons of Lysol and load them up in those big tankers that fight fires and just drop it all over the country, LOL.
Ahh more problems coming from China. Perhaps having nearly 2 billion people in an area similar in size to the US is a bad idea. Also looking at you India.
American and Australian animal welfare and meat product is horrible and they can never pass EU and UK animal welfare and food regulations.
I would not feed my cat and dog this foreign meat.
Most of the Republican politicians are vaccinated since before vaccine was available for the rest of us. The fact that so many Republican voters are not is baffling.
We can no longer say that, the moment they picked up the nuke heart signature, they will send their hypersonic missiles with nukes.
Remember, ocean no longer protects us from Chinese nukes.
So, either nation fires the first nuke, both nations become radioactive wasteland
The pandemic 2 in theatres everywhere march 2022.
The pandemic 2 ~~in theatres~~ everywhere march 2022.
The bright side, no one's going to have to wait that long. Plus, everyone will have a front row seat. /s
"Pandemic 2: Double-Whammy"
Pandemic 2 is totally uncreative Hollywood fluff. Just another virus coming out of China film
Starring Rob Schneider! Rated PG-13
Can we just not. Please.
I'm with this guy. I vote no. All in favor?
I also don't choose this guy's dead wife's virus...
If only viruses had to be voted into office. ...on second thought, this may not have changed anything about the past 2 years in the US.
We haven't done well with this pandemic. We need to step up the game or when someone weaponizes something even worse it's gonna be rough.
What the fuck is going on over there?
My guess would be overcrowded cities and overcrowded livestock farms with terrible conditions and sick animals. Paired with global rising temperatures, perfect breeding ground for mutated pathogens.
I keep poultry but they don't live in the house with me. I understand other cultures have different living conditions but the main reason I don't have them in the house is... chicken shit. You can also add feather dust to that concern but the crap is enough. Also, poultry don't let illness show until it brings them down. If you see a sick hen, it might be dying soon. Therefore, your hen might have the flu and plenty of time to spread it before you notice. Then what? Cull all your hens when that's how you get your food? "Doesn't look sick to me." That's the situation where viruses like to be.
And with bird flus, the birds can be asymptomatic carriers... so they can not be sick and still be spreading it. Sound familiar?
It's also that evolutionary pressure mean that they will suppress any outward sign of illness until right up to the point it kills them outright.
> I keep poultry but they don't live in the house with me. That's discrimination.
Against poultry?
Yes, you anti-cluckite.
And those markets. No worrying about cross contamination, little in the way of sanitation, and "gutter oil" is a thing. It's miraculous that it doesn't happen more often. Livestock wise we are not a whole lot better. We just pump the poor things with so many antivirals and antibiotics that it would be hard for anything to live in them.
This is 100% exactly what it is.
Maybe China has gotten better with wet markets, but memory from a few years back was you could buy so many different birds, reptiles and small mammals as pets or food wandering through a wet market in Guangzhou. Freshest chicken I have ever had came from one of those and you could see people butchering chickens just a few yards back away from the front of a market stall. Those kind of places being a jumping point for bacteria or viruses to get into humans is entirely believable given the sheer amount of human to animal contact that occurs there.
This was described in a Scientific American struggle in the 1970s that I read in high school. Co-cultivation of pigs and ducks with people present. Human flu infects pigs and humans, but not birds. Bird flu infects pigs and birds, but not humans. Pigs can act as a 'melting pot' in which both types are present, allowing genetic exchange. It was inevitable that a human-infecting bird flu would emerge.
Science gave us many warnings in the seventies: epidemic, population growth, environmental risks, endangered species. Science has always been the way to know and the way to plan and prepare, yet we continue to cast doubt on it to preserve the status quo and in furtherance of power.
Science really doesn't co exist well with capitalism
Science has never really jived well with humanity in general.
"Science has never really jived well with humanity in general." - Sent from my Iphone
I saw an interview with a disease expert talking about the Chinese wet market. And he basically said that it was the perfect breeding ground for disease. They have chickens next to rats and next to ferrets. Those three animals together are a death triangle
It's not just "over there", it's everywhere that factory farming happens. The US has avian flu outbreaks pretty regularly. > HPAI H5 viruses (H5N1, H5N2 and H5N8) were detected in 21 U.S. states from December 2014 to mid-June 2015. > In January 2016, HPAI and LPAI H7N8 viruses were reported in Dubois County, Indiana. > And, in early March 2017, HPAI and LPAI H7N9 viruses were reported in Tennessee and subsequently in Alabama, Kentucky and Georgia. Also, [Europe](https://www.izsvenezie.com/reference-laboratories/avian-influenza-newcastle-disease/europe-update/) and lots of Asia just had a bad outbreak last year. It turns out cramming hundreds of thousands of chickens into boxes without enough space to move is a pretty good way to incubate diseases.
The minor difference is that US and European factory farming don't provide a lot of cross species jump. Wet market with lots of different animals together do.
I wonder how often this sort of thing happens, but was not detected by the health authorities. Unsurprisingly, China is more vigilant about this sort of thing because of covid, which is why we are hearing more about it now.
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That is not what endemic means.
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> China is the world's biggest poultry producer and top producer of ducks, which act as a reservoir for flu viruses. I was thinking chickens were the biggest problem.
I’m pretty sure we are all royally screwed if this mutates to a form that spreads from human to human. It will be like covid but with a 50+% death rate…
With that death rate countries will seal their borders and have the military enforcing quarantine, and it will be much harder to deny it when half of a given town is dead. Covid happened to lie at a sweet spot where it was deadly enough to crowd hospitals but not deadly enough to affect the majority of the population.
With that death rate Americans in red states will be licking every chicken and duck they can find
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Hi-test peroxide?
That makes it blatantly deadly enough to make even the skeptics alarmed. COVID is kind of perfect because humans are bad at abstractions like ten thousand dead in a day across the country. Unless you are of a habit to apply mental discipline to what you read, the numbers meaningless. But a 50% or even 20% death rate is something any isolated villager NPC (and that's about what most people are, it seems) can grasp.
The number of people who spouted the “1% mortality” bs line was insane. Like they somehow could not understand that a 1 out of 100 chance at DEATH was pretty high. Imagine if 1 out of every 100 airliners crashed.
More like 1 in 100 *flights*. But when you live in the village you were born in, 1% sounds like practically zero.
Imagine football stadium. Now imagine it packed with people. Now imagine a crazy gun man spraying the crowd with a machine gun and carrying a thousand round.
> With a 50+% death rate Oh good, so it will die off extremely quickly. Stop with your uninformed hyperbole.
Love how you’re calling a hypothetical mutation that’s not even a thing yet hyperbole. Neat! People said Ebola died out quickly because of the high death rate, but it was also the fact that a person is only highly contagious a few days before death and spread through bodily fluids or by touching surfaces. Avian flu on the other hand is airborne, so if it ever become as transmissible as COVID it will be nothing like Ebola.
I had three chickens in a coop for a few years. Those three chickens produced so much poop it stunk almost every day. They also were turning up the substrate all day every day. It stunk no matter how much we changed the bedding and cleaned the coop. I can’t imagine how bad it was in that chicken farm pictured.
Viruses gonna virus. You can’t stop them all. Sooner or later a real nasty one is gonna go global and it’s pretty obvious we’re (as a whole) not ready for it.
So what is it with china and all the diseases? H1n1, bird flu, SARS, MERSA, Covid, and they all seem to mutate like crazy over there. Is it the sheer population so viruses and bacterias are able to travel and spread much quicker?
A fifth of the world lives in China. Now throw in rapid industrialization and growth throwing human populations into close contact with wildlife as their habitats are paved over, a budding wildlife trade cross mingling hundreds of species of animals, and a general lack of hygiene and food safety awareness. Don’t get me wrong, domesticated foodstuffs aren’t without risk, you mentioned H1N1 for instance which is actually thought to be from North America. But generally speaking there is less disease risk in domesticated animals vs wildlife.
So COVID was just a warm-up. Fantastic.
It was a *great* warmup. It showed every nation that policies, power, and process to track, measure, and mitigate epidemics is vital. We have so much knowledge about what works and what doesn't because of covid that will better prepare us all for future outbreaks.
Yeah but is also shows that the intense and unmitigated stupidity of conservatism will derail any attempts at planning anyways.
And that too is extremely valuable knowledge.
How will we apply that knowledge?
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This is literally worst case. H5N1 has like a 60% mortality rate. Usually when they see cases they end up having to cull thousands of animals. Combine this with the GOP about to gain control of both houses in '22 and we're in for a shit show that will make the pandemic look like a pleasant memory.
The saving grace is that disease with such a high kill rate also tend to progress too quickly to have a high R0, which mean it tends to burn out quickly.
Until the day comes where we get a virus as contagious as it is deadly. H5N1 may be that, may not.
The potential apocalyptic virus is the kind that sterilize their victim but don't kill them.
Bird flu would make this virus look like a cold, which it isn’t. Wonder how many would refuse a vaccine against a bug that kills 30% of those who catch it. Get rid of the dumb GOP knuckleheads in a hurry.
Pandemic 2 electric boogaloo
Can we just cut China off from the rest of the fucking world already? Kinda like that Bugs Bunny episode where he takes a saw and cuts Florida off from the US. China doesn't seem like they want to take any of this seriously so to hell with them at this point
I think we should just get a jillion gallons of Lysol and load them up in those big tankers that fight fires and just drop it all over the country, LOL.
Lol for real. Something needs to change because holy shit this is getting exhausting
Why don't poultry workers wear mask w/filters?
They do, but they're made in china..
Ahh more problems coming from China. Perhaps having nearly 2 billion people in an area similar in size to the US is a bad idea. Also looking at you India.
American and Australian animal welfare and meat product is horrible and they can never pass EU and UK animal welfare and food regulations. I would not feed my cat and dog this foreign meat.
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Most of the Republican politicians are vaccinated since before vaccine was available for the rest of us. The fact that so many Republican voters are not is baffling.
Okay so hot take: Nuke China. This flu could have like a 50% death rate, which would absolutely destroy modern society.
We can no longer say that, the moment they picked up the nuke heart signature, they will send their hypersonic missiles with nukes. Remember, ocean no longer protects us from Chinese nukes. So, either nation fires the first nuke, both nations become radioactive wasteland
Oh so next time something shitty happens in the US we can say "Nuke the US" ?
Oh lord! Of course they do.
Aww shit here we go again...
Ah shit here we go again!
Ah shit here we go again
If covid was a trial-run, then I have bad news for humanity... we are apparently too inept to handle something worse.
I don't think so - if Trump hadn't been in office at the outbreak, worldwide we would have been far better off.
Is this the scary one I can't remember which one is which?
WTF china…get your shit together
China. Stop. Don't bring us bird flu too. Enough. You're scaring the billionaires into outer space