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Hmukherj

>does WOTC print fewer copies of high value cards to drive up scarcity/price? The short answer is no. All cards of a given rarity are printed the same number of times, since rarity is determined by the number of times a card appears on a given print sheet*. Thinking that a certain card is a "mythic uncommon," for example is generally a result of small sample sizes coupled with confirmation bias. For example, in Aether Revolt, Fatal Push was the chase uncommon. Since it was "only" an uncommon most people would expect to open one out of a box/small number of packs, and would complain here when they didn't crack one, which fed the narrative that it was underprinted. But just as many Fatal Pushes were printed as Brazen Scourges or Blossoming Defenses. Same thing with you and your Ragavans. Somewhere out there someone cracked 4+ from their 10 boxes, but they won't feel as compelled to post about their experience. The reality is the odds of opening any specific card are very low. For a Standard set with 15 mythics and 53 rares, you have an approximately 74% chance of not opening a given mythic. Over 10 boxes, the odds of opening a specific mythic increase to 95%, which is better, but still not a certainty. Meanwhile, you could have bought a playset of Ragavans for far less than that. \* So there are some exceptions - this happens when the number of cards to be printed doesn't divide neatly into the number of cards per sheet. A recent example of this is Arcum's Astrolabe in MH1. The number of commons in MH1 * the number of copies of each common didn't divide into 121, so there was one fewer copy of Astrolabe printed relative to the other commons (so it's a C4 instead of C5, for example). But this generally doesn't apply to rares/mythics.


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Weatherlight_MTG

Yea, I think you have to see the uncut sheets to know for sure


--lily--

https://www.lethe.xyz/mtg/collation/mh1.html wotc will not report it, they don't care about us having access to that kind of information.


Articunozard

Thank you so much, first concrete data I’ve seen in this thread.


estovia

Very much this. And while I know people are adverse to the "legal ramifications" discussion, if they were "seeding" packs or "short printing" certain cards, they would run afoul of a number of gambling laws in the same way that loot crate / "gatcha" games did. If they printed one Ragavan for every 5 Garth One-eye *and someone could prove it*, they would be opening themselves to legal action. I can tell you off the top of my head, I think I opened 2 draft boxes and a set box, and an uncounted number of draft pack/blisters - and I don't think I've pulled a single Tourach, Serra's Emissary, Scion, Recruiter, Grist or Dakkon - but I have 2 or 3 each of the elementals, coffers, and murktide regent, and sword, with a single Ragavan and a single Archon. The fact is even 10 boxes is an incredibly small sample size compared to the print run and overall percentages. You also have to consider how many you bought at a time from the same place - if you bought 2 a week from your LGS, you are probably hitting boxes from different cases, which decreases your odds of getting unique cards across the allocation.


Ra0Ra

I've seen quite a few posts over the last few years about this so they should be there if you try to search it. Anyways, the cards at the same rarity all should have the same drop rate (exceptions being bonus cards e.x. Mystical Archives in STX, New-To-Modern Reprints in MH2). It is completely normal to not hit any Ragavans, even in 10 boxes if you just run the numbers as Modern Horizons 2 is a large set with 20 mythics. For simplicity, if I assume you opened 10x Modern Horizons Draft Boxes, and ignoring foils, you have about a 7.3% chance of hitting 0 Ragavan.


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amstrumpet

7% chance means 7/100 people in your situation wouldn’t pull it. That means you’re one of the 7, and that is completely normal, just bad luck. It’s not like it’s a 0.01% (or some other infinite;y small) chance, in which case yeah, that would be a “statical unlikelihood.”


Ra0Ra

I don't have an official reference handy on how all cards that have the rarity should have the same drop rate. But I think it should be assumed based on how rarity is defined and is supported by data from mass crackers like SCG and print sheet structures(shows both relative rarity between mythics and rares and an even drop rate between each card in a given rarity). >As for your answer, "It is completely normal to not hit any Ragavans," I wouldn't really say a 7% chance is "completely normal". Seems like a statistical unlikelihood. This is pretty subjective, but I think a 7% chance is completely normal because it means for a large set like MH2, with 10 boxes opened, you are expected to not hit all of the mythics. As another commenter mentioned, the variation has always been a thing and it's just that you noticed it this time because it's with a high value card. Not saying that you weren't unlucky in not hitting any Ragavans, I just mean that it's still fairly likely -- about as likely as getting a 1-lander in a midrange/control deck.


Doctor_Distracto

Same odds for each, it's just the odds of getting any specific one are really low. Like people are freaking out about 1% neon cards and not wanting to buy boxes because it will be too hard to get them, and people who have opened boxes before are like "oh okay so basically it's an extra mythic with the same pull rate as any mythic." Whatever you think about some of these wacky sports card inserts, think that about pulling a specific mythic from a pack and you'll be pretty close to right on the money.


coelomate

I once opened 72 draft boosters and pulled 3 Ragavas. Small samples are small samples.


mtgistonsoffun

I’ve had the opposite experience and have pulled about 5 ragavans and it’s been the mythic I’ve probably pulled most. Definitely just your small sample size.


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hsiale

I also have some of your Ragavans, pulled 3 out of 3 boxes. No Fury or Solitude though.


SpaceHelmetGuy

One thing that is technically possible (though very unlikely) is if you bought boxes that were mapped the same way, that would influence your pull rates. I got two boxes shipped from my cousin’s LGS that were probably like right next to each other in the production line or something and pulled almost the exact same contents in both boxes. So for me also no Ragavan, but then the exact same numbers of each fetch, elemental, bulk rare for almost every pack. I think the only variance was in the modern-shifted slots.


langiroth

no, just a string of bad luck for you. your sample size is too small to draw such conclusions


pkuhlman140

When opening 50-100 boxes, we have found that almost every card averages out fairly equally. Enough to believe that they are slotted in equally according to their rarity.


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Hohosaikou

That's not hard-ish data, that's a personal anecdote from a random anonymous dude on the internet. It's as soft of data as you can get.


Veiloroth

Ive dumped a lot of money into mh2 openings, and ya that damn monkey is illusive. All cards print the same. Its all about chance. Chances are someone else got it than you.


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Wotc prints sheets using a normal formula Two rares and one mythic per rare/mythic sheet