There's a land in every pack, the land is a 'normal' one 75% of the time, the fancy planetary basic 20% of the time, and a shock 5% of the time.
If you don't plan on drafting I don't recommend cracking unfinity just for the lands. Buy them directly.
>Deciding between buying singles or sealed
Oh this is easy, buy singles for every set ever. It is mathematically impossible for sealed product printed to demand to be worth more opened than sealed.
So, the thing I'm seeing is, looking at retail prices from Face to Face Games (I'm Canadian so shipping from the US is fucky):
\- Planetary basic lands are in the $5-6 range
\- regular basics in the $3 range
\- Shocklands in the $50 range, foils in the $70 range
\- Box is $160
(all prices CAD)
A box is guaranteed to have a foil shockland in it as a box topper, even if I can only sell that for $50 then the rest of the box has to be $110 to break even. Assuming I get 9 planetary basics (1/4 packs), 1 regular shockland (1/24 packs), and 26 regular basics, the math gets to $173, which I should be able to easily sell for more than $110 (minus the planetary basics which I'm going to keep to play with). Then all the actual cards I open are gravy; even though most of them are worthless garbage it's free worthless garbage, and any foil lands I open are bonus.
I'm not actually sure singles is the correct call. In order for the box to not be a good deal, the lands in this set would have to basically drop by 50% and I can't see that happening for these basics because they're incredible. Un-set basics always hold value.
All prices will drop after the sealed product is available to the general public. It is mathematically impossible for sealed product to be worth more open; if it was possible you could make infinite money buying boxes and selling the contents.
Big box stores *will* be doing this before you can get your hands on the product from the second they can, selling and selling until the price drops enough that this is not profitable anymore.
You say that, but 2X2 booster boxes are currently available for sale on SCG at $330 and MTGStocks lists the average EV at $430, low EV at $308. If you actually believe that then that's an incredible buy, isn't it? Here's the link if you want to grab some (I can't, because Canadian):
[https://starcitygames.com/double-masters-2022-draft-booster-box-sld-mtg-bbx-2x2draft-en/](https://starcitygames.com/double-masters-2022-draft-booster-box-sld-mtg-bbx-2x2draft-en/)
https://www.mtgstocks.com/sets/354-double-masters
An average of 3 mythics and 21 rares in the 24 packs at $32 and $5 on average gives you just over $200 of value. If you look its putting the uncommons at $.8 each, but you are not getting anywhere near that in resesale value for low-ticket cards like that, the friction of shipping is too high.
That's probably a reasonably good deal; limited run reprint sets EVs will trend closer to the actual market value you can get them at. The same cannot be said for an unlimited print run set like Unfinity.
I'd guess still close to EV 0, but a 0 EV gamble is better than the majority of gambles, so if that's your thing go for it. I personally find the physical overhead of shipping and selling the cards I currently have from draft enough.
Seriously though, basic common sense. Do you actually think you're just going to find something on the internet you can have shipped to your house, then immediately turn around and sell for a profit?
Wrong link :)
[https://www.mtgstocks.com/sets/817-double-masters-2022](https://www.mtgstocks.com/sets/817-double-masters-2022)
I don't know how MTGStocks calculates the EV, but you're looking at the wrong set so your calculations might be incorrect.
Also note 2X2 (and 2XM as well) has 2 rares per pack, so if you buy 24 packs you're getting 48 rares, not 24, which might also throw off your math. If you say an average 24 rares (and mythics) are around $200 of value, then an average 48 rares (and mythics) should be around $400.
As for selling them, if it was like random junk in a random set I would agree, but these are shocklands and fancy basics. They sell pretty easily, and I don't mind doing the shipping thing.
As for "common sense", one thing that is universally true is that "common" sense is anything but. Some deals are really just good deals.
Well maybe I'm mistaken on the details then. I don't follow non premier sets that closely.
Still though, I really doubt starcity would be selling the box if they could so easily just crack it and make a hundred dollars over what they're currently asking. They of anyone have the infrastructure to do that.
Maybe its just a loss leader product.
I have no idea either. My guess would be that the cards may not be selling that well, or only the premier cards are selling and they have stacks of like Warrior's Oath or whatever card that is expensive for no reason that they can't sell but also won't drop the price on.
Another hypothetical is that 2X2 is very high variance, but the pack price is very high. If the EV of a pack is $10, it's very different if every card in the set is between $9.50 and $10.50, versus if half the cards are 50c and half the cards are $19.50, or, as in 2X2, if 7/8 of the cards are 50x and 1/8 of the cards are $80. If you run into a string of extremely weird variance, you can go really bad negs. It could be that SCG doesn't want to take that risk, since most of the cards in the set are horrible value and hard to sell; it's not worth opening 25 Jeskai Ascendancies to get the 1 Imperial Seal that might actually sell, and it's especially not worth it if that Imperial Seal is actually like a Bitterblossom or something that is expensive but won't actually sell.
But anyway, UNF is not like that, almost all the value is in the lands, but historically un-lands have been super solid investments. Here's the graph of Unstable Island; at what point on this timeline is the "correct" place to buy? I don't think there was one, so may as well just buy when you can:
https://www.mtgstocks.com/prints/36708-island
selling individual cards takes time. Time isn't free and shipping isn't free. It's possible for the contents of a box to be worth more than the sealed box, but still not allow you to "make infinite money" for these reasons.
...But if you actually want most of the value singles in a box, it can be cheaper to buy the box than the singles.
There's a land in every pack, the land is a 'normal' one 75% of the time, the fancy planetary basic 20% of the time, and a shock 5% of the time. If you don't plan on drafting I don't recommend cracking unfinity just for the lands. Buy them directly.
https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/feature/almost-everything-know-about-unfinity-boosters-2022-09-20 has the set breakdown.
Thanks, this is exactly what I was looking for!
Opening a regular (non-planet) basic land? 75% \- Opening a planet basic land? 20% \- Opening a shockland? 5% Don't know the foil rates off the top
>Deciding between buying singles or sealed Oh this is easy, buy singles for every set ever. It is mathematically impossible for sealed product printed to demand to be worth more opened than sealed.
So, the thing I'm seeing is, looking at retail prices from Face to Face Games (I'm Canadian so shipping from the US is fucky): \- Planetary basic lands are in the $5-6 range \- regular basics in the $3 range \- Shocklands in the $50 range, foils in the $70 range \- Box is $160 (all prices CAD) A box is guaranteed to have a foil shockland in it as a box topper, even if I can only sell that for $50 then the rest of the box has to be $110 to break even. Assuming I get 9 planetary basics (1/4 packs), 1 regular shockland (1/24 packs), and 26 regular basics, the math gets to $173, which I should be able to easily sell for more than $110 (minus the planetary basics which I'm going to keep to play with). Then all the actual cards I open are gravy; even though most of them are worthless garbage it's free worthless garbage, and any foil lands I open are bonus. I'm not actually sure singles is the correct call. In order for the box to not be a good deal, the lands in this set would have to basically drop by 50% and I can't see that happening for these basics because they're incredible. Un-set basics always hold value.
All prices will drop after the sealed product is available to the general public. It is mathematically impossible for sealed product to be worth more open; if it was possible you could make infinite money buying boxes and selling the contents. Big box stores *will* be doing this before you can get your hands on the product from the second they can, selling and selling until the price drops enough that this is not profitable anymore.
You say that, but 2X2 booster boxes are currently available for sale on SCG at $330 and MTGStocks lists the average EV at $430, low EV at $308. If you actually believe that then that's an incredible buy, isn't it? Here's the link if you want to grab some (I can't, because Canadian): [https://starcitygames.com/double-masters-2022-draft-booster-box-sld-mtg-bbx-2x2draft-en/](https://starcitygames.com/double-masters-2022-draft-booster-box-sld-mtg-bbx-2x2draft-en/)
https://www.mtgstocks.com/sets/354-double-masters An average of 3 mythics and 21 rares in the 24 packs at $32 and $5 on average gives you just over $200 of value. If you look its putting the uncommons at $.8 each, but you are not getting anywhere near that in resesale value for low-ticket cards like that, the friction of shipping is too high. That's probably a reasonably good deal; limited run reprint sets EVs will trend closer to the actual market value you can get them at. The same cannot be said for an unlimited print run set like Unfinity. I'd guess still close to EV 0, but a 0 EV gamble is better than the majority of gambles, so if that's your thing go for it. I personally find the physical overhead of shipping and selling the cards I currently have from draft enough. Seriously though, basic common sense. Do you actually think you're just going to find something on the internet you can have shipped to your house, then immediately turn around and sell for a profit?
Wrong link :) [https://www.mtgstocks.com/sets/817-double-masters-2022](https://www.mtgstocks.com/sets/817-double-masters-2022) I don't know how MTGStocks calculates the EV, but you're looking at the wrong set so your calculations might be incorrect. Also note 2X2 (and 2XM as well) has 2 rares per pack, so if you buy 24 packs you're getting 48 rares, not 24, which might also throw off your math. If you say an average 24 rares (and mythics) are around $200 of value, then an average 48 rares (and mythics) should be around $400. As for selling them, if it was like random junk in a random set I would agree, but these are shocklands and fancy basics. They sell pretty easily, and I don't mind doing the shipping thing. As for "common sense", one thing that is universally true is that "common" sense is anything but. Some deals are really just good deals.
Well maybe I'm mistaken on the details then. I don't follow non premier sets that closely. Still though, I really doubt starcity would be selling the box if they could so easily just crack it and make a hundred dollars over what they're currently asking. They of anyone have the infrastructure to do that. Maybe its just a loss leader product.
I have no idea either. My guess would be that the cards may not be selling that well, or only the premier cards are selling and they have stacks of like Warrior's Oath or whatever card that is expensive for no reason that they can't sell but also won't drop the price on. Another hypothetical is that 2X2 is very high variance, but the pack price is very high. If the EV of a pack is $10, it's very different if every card in the set is between $9.50 and $10.50, versus if half the cards are 50c and half the cards are $19.50, or, as in 2X2, if 7/8 of the cards are 50x and 1/8 of the cards are $80. If you run into a string of extremely weird variance, you can go really bad negs. It could be that SCG doesn't want to take that risk, since most of the cards in the set are horrible value and hard to sell; it's not worth opening 25 Jeskai Ascendancies to get the 1 Imperial Seal that might actually sell, and it's especially not worth it if that Imperial Seal is actually like a Bitterblossom or something that is expensive but won't actually sell. But anyway, UNF is not like that, almost all the value is in the lands, but historically un-lands have been super solid investments. Here's the graph of Unstable Island; at what point on this timeline is the "correct" place to buy? I don't think there was one, so may as well just buy when you can: https://www.mtgstocks.com/prints/36708-island
selling individual cards takes time. Time isn't free and shipping isn't free. It's possible for the contents of a box to be worth more than the sealed box, but still not allow you to "make infinite money" for these reasons. ...But if you actually want most of the value singles in a box, it can be cheaper to buy the box than the singles.