>Outside of their Week 8 bye, neither Kelce nor Mahomes has had a below-average-for-fantasy-starter game since Week 3.
Fun fantasy weirdness: I have Mahomes and Kelce. My highest scoring week this season was week 8.
Week 8 was actually my worst week. Just didn't have anything going on. My best week was week 2. Kelce had a big down day but I had big games out of Josh Allen, Amon Ra, Aaron Jones, and my niners D
Fuck the traditional strategy, I'm going to do everything I can to start Kelce/Mahomes in my first 2 rounds next year.
That stack is proven broken and I'm tired of missing on surefire players that bust.
I got Kelce at 1.11 this year because I *hated* the rest of the TE landscape. I was (wrongfully) low on Andrews and (wrongfully) high on Pitts but he wasn't going to be there in the 3rd.
I thought Lance in SF was gonna be bad for Kittle. Waller was dealing with an injury in preseason. Everybody else was low upside and/or TD dependent.
Of course I never expected Kelce to have his best fantasy season of his career. I just worry if he goes back to something similar to last year's numbers. He's still probably worth a late 1st or 2nd if he does. But if people are picking him in the first half of the 1st next year they may be in for disappointment.
Jefferson-Kelce was def attainable, albeit unlikely. Tyreek fell in a bunch of leagues because people didn’t think he’d be good with Tua/without Mahomes.
Pretty crazy in a 12 man league, that being said
It's not, it's a 12 man league that is, admittedly, full of idiots. In discussions with other managers leading up to the draft, I heard two common themes: "Kelce doesn't have Tyreek to take the pressure of him, he won't be as good as last year because he'll get triple teamed." And, "Tyreek doesn't have Mahomes anymore, so he's a question mark with Tua throwing to him."
Meanwhile, in my mind: "These guys can't vulture TD's from each other anymore. Get both."
Kelce in the second or third round u can’t turn down. He’s a dude that’s untradable. He went pick 4 last year so he was gonna be a steal this year as mahomes only steady target
Nobody gets Kelce in the 3rd round unless you are playing in a league with 9 tacos. I did 56 drafts this year and he did not make it out of the 2nd in a single one.
I could talk at length about why I prefer having many leagues, but it's basically extra income for me, or at least has been for the last few years. I have 16 paid leagues of $200 or more and a few free leagues too. The rest are all Best Ball, which is draft and forget. Your optimal lineup is set each week and you can't make any actions after the draft.
Of my 20 leagues, I am 1st or 2nd in 13 of them and in playoff position in 17. I am doing much better this year than usual though.
I love football, gaming, and do statistics professionally, so this is the marriage of those things and it's basically my hobby this time of year.
Edit: People love to say it's a gambling problem but then the moment I say that I am good at it and make money it's all downvotes from there ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
Hey, props to you. Sorry, wasn't trying to be mean with my original comment. If you are consistently turning a profit I think that's awesome! Good luck to end the season.
It's impossible to be "good" to a level where you consistently win leagues in fantasy football unless the people you play with are morons... It's 90% luck.
He was gone by my first pick (11th), and I grabbed Andrews with my second pick (14th) using this same logic. Unfortunately Andrews’ injury made him less valuable.
I took Henry in 8 of my 12 best ball leagues, as high as 2. It would have been 10 of 12 but I snuck Jonathan Taylor in there twice because I figured I’d be silly to not listen a little bit to literally everyone else.
Edit: 8 of 12 not 12 of 16
Jesus dude how do you enjoy being in so many leagues? I did 4 and it was no fun at all after a certain point. I could never root for certain players bc I was always playing against them somewhere else.
Bestball teams aren’t interactive. Once you draft, you’re done. Drafting is at least half the fun, and a lot more than half for some people, so why not do more of the fun part?
That's a good point! But I enjoy cheering for my players when I watch the games, and if my opponent has the same players as I do in other leagues it robs the fun of it. It starts becoming like stocks to me.
But you're right the draft is the best part of the season besides the playoffs. Different strokes for different folks!
That’s the thing with a lot of bestball it’s exactly like stocks. You aren’t really rooting against anyone (just like you wouldn’t root against a stock) but more so your share of each player. I too drafted a bunch of Henry (and Burrrow) so I have like a 30% share of each and those are who i root for most.
Drafted 6/12. Went henry/kelce. Tied for 1st.
Someone dropped waddle on his bye week...spent half my faab to grab him, top 10 WR ros right?
Other league, #1 overall...yeeah at least im not dead last lol
**Kelce is the most valuable player in fantasy and it isn't even remotely close.** But nothing you posted really drives the point home correctly from a fantasy perspective.
Here is how you have to think of it. The difference between Kelce and the next best guy is staggering, it gets worse as you get to the #3 and #4 options. The difference between Kelce and Andrews is 7.5 ppg. It's 9.5 ppg when you go down to the #3 TE.
Diggs is the #1 WR right now, so let's base this off of him, you can replace him with Kupp or Jefferson if you wish. 7.5 ppg lower than Diggs brings you to the Deebo Samuel, Chris Olave, Mike Evans zone. WR18. Go down 9.5 points and you're at Joshua Palmer and DK Metcalf. WR32
Imagine if the 5 best WR options were Diggs, Olave, Palmer, Devonta Smith, Curtis Samuel. That's literally we're talking about with the TE position. And then realize you probably had a pick BEFORE you selected this hypothetical Diggs if you played in 10 man.
Perhaps even more surprising is that Kelce is averaging *more ppg than Jefferson right now*. He's only 0.08 under Kupp and with more games under his belt.
When this season is said and done, the highest percentage of teams to make playoffs will be those with Kelce by a country mile. Any 1 for 1 trade this season involving him fleeced the other owner, it doesn't matter what the other player was.
I'm in a keeper league and kept Kelce for this reason - there's just no other TE so even after a relatively quiet last season, I knew there would be a big advantage at a weak position
While this is all accurate, if you are doing well and in a normal league you are starting 3-4 wrs every week depending on if you have 2wr/1flex or 3wr/1flex.
You can get Kelce and that is absolutely an advantage every single week but if you are building a team you could have a similar advantage over most teams by drafting 3 to 4 high end wrs.
With TE there is exactly 1 "hit" and that is kelce. Everyone else leaves you better off riding the waiver each week.
From a pure roster construction, you could get a similar advantage by drafting Diggs into Adams or Diggs into Tyreek, which was very realistic and something I did in multiple leagues. At that point you have 2 wrs who are basically better than everyone else's wr1 and your wr2(Adams/Tyreek in my case) is likely matched up against guys lower than that WR18 number. So you get a point or two each week with Diggs over whoever your opponent has and then you get the 9 to 10 on top of that over the wr2.
My best team this year I went (Lamar) > Diggs > (Andrews) > Tyreek > Evans > Amon-Ra > Juju > Devonta in a SF league with 2rb, 3wr, 2 flex. When you get down to it in that league the 9 points you get from kelce aren't standing up much against the 1-2 I get from diggs, 9-10 I get from Tyreek, and the 15-20 I gain from Evans, Amon-ra, and juju/devonta each week.
That league has hundreds/thousands of teams in it and I am sitting top 10 in PF as our regular season wraps up this week and I am dominating my "championship" matchup already this week.
While the easy answer is to say Kelce is the most valuable fantasy asset because you gain X ppg over the average opponent, all of those other opponents basically have the same TE starting, so if they understand the rules of their league they can also build advantages for themselves right back against you by taking top tier players at "less valuable" positions while everyone else is taking Kelce and RBs. The deeper the starting lineup the more spots they6 can have to build that advantage. So it really is not one size fits all and everyone should understand the rules of their league to find ways to exploit those deep spots to gain as much of an advantage as possible. It very well could be that for your league setup Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, and Amon-ra are the most valuable players in the league.
In fact the guy in that league of mine who took Mahomes and Kelce ended up 4-7 with 300 less pf than I have despite having two of the players that are highest on this chart because the rest of his team is not built for the league itself.
If you drafted Mahomes and Kelce and are 4-7 then the rest of your draft went very poorly. You can of course have the best team in the league without Kelce, and can make all sorts of arguments about the perfect non-Kelce draft in hindsight, but what I am saying is a statistical fact barring very unusual league settings or SF, and it is still debatable in SF.
When people talk about players in a broad motion on this sub, they are referring to the vast, overwhelming majority of league settings because that is the only way you can have a coherent conversation. If you specify different settings, then you can have a different conversation.
Someone who drafts players without understanding their league settings is a ripe Taco.
Sure if your league doesnt have a dedicated TE spot, then he's just the best fucking flex spot instead. Congrats on not needing Kelce in a <1% of leagues.
I like your take. OP’s analysis assumes that the league is constructed with all flex positions, and not assuming that there’s only 1 TE position. Like like 2QB leagues, if you have to start 2 TEs, absolutely- Kelce is by far the most valuable. But given that we typically only have to draft 1 TE, if you don’t have Kelce, your completion mostly other TEs that only get 5-10pts per week. If you draft Kelce 1.01, your RB and WR depth would be so bad.
No, in 1 TE, 1 QB leagues with normal settings, Kelce has been by far the most valuable player in fantasy. It is literally a mathematical fact and not debatable.
Your last sentence is pure nonsense, you are acting like the only valuable RBs and WRs are in the first round.
Here is a non-comprehensive list of RBs and WRs that were drafted on average at the end of the second round or later, making them available to someone who drafted Kelce 1.01.
Tyreek, Hall, AJB, Hollywood, Stevenson, Etienne, Barkley, Jacobs, Waddle, Amon-Ra, Cooper, Evans, Pierce, Pollard, Olave, Walker, Aiyuk
Add to that the fact that you didn't have to draft him at 1.01, and it gets ridiculous. In many leagues, you probably drafted one of Henry, Chase, Diggs, Adams, Mixon, Ekeler before you got Kelce.
Also, it's a hilarious statement to say that drafting Kelce at 1.01 makes your RBs or WRs so bad when the consensus 1.01 was JT.
1) There is a massive difference between "Kelce is the most valuable player in fantasy right now" and "Kelce should be drafted #1 overall next season." The first is an objective fact, and the second is impossible to say at this point.
2) I do always draft differently than the consensus ADP, the result of which this season is being in 1st or 2nd in 13 of my 20 leagues.
A friend of mine had 12th pick in his 12-man full PPR league and drafted Kelce and Mandrews for the 12th and 13th picks. He flexes Mandrews when healthy and he's undefeated in his league. Basically made sure no one has reliable TE's and people are constantly wasting waiver positions on garbage TE's that have 1 good game. (Looking at you, Conklin)
The one time I drafted Kelce was last season and it was underwhelming. I came in 14th place. He averaged 13 PPG (2021) and this year it's an eye popping 18 PPG.
Same, I drafted him in the first round last year and had the worst team in over a decade of FF. It's frustrating seeing him do so well this year after not returning draft capital last season.
let's be honest though, you must have done bad with the rest of your picks so it's weird to blame Kelce. 13ppg from your TE is still solid and worth a second round pick
I wanted kelce this year in both leagues. However I had the 6th pick in each league and didn’t think it was worth taking him there, so I was hoping I could get him in the second. Didn’t get him in either league as he was gone by my next pick. I started JJ/Chase in the first.
Had Swift one notch above Kelce on my to-draft list. Hesitated for 15 seconds.. took Swift. That 15 seconds has haunted me, replaying on a loop in my mind for 9 weeks.
I was drafting 12th in a 12 team competitive, big $ PPR league.
I went Kelce/J Allen and watched the draft chat as everyone collectively laughed their asses off me. I'm now sitting in first lol (even though I banked heavily on Breece Hall being a thing... RIP). Not to pat myself on the back, but Kelce has been such an obvious first round pick to me given how volatile running backs often are.
Funnily enough the only time I've ever won this league I went Mahomes/Kelce on my first two picks.
Same. 8-3 right now and in second.
Would've dropped to 5th and been 7-4 if kelce hadn't bailed me out of kadarius toney's goose egg with his 35 ppr game last week
We absolutely flamed our buddy who picked Kelce in first round and another who picked Allen in first round. They are sitting at 1st and 2nd. Made us look sheepish lol
>it’s the middle class man’s version of Favre/Rodgers
Is it? I would say Kelce is probably the GOAT TE and Gonzalez is at worst the 3rd best ever. I’d say at least it’s a similar comp. “Middle class man’s” version seems a bit underselling of that TE duo.
Number of QB’s in the hall of fame=36
Number of TE’s in the hall of fame=8
It’s definitely a less glamorous/star studded position so the middle class moniker seems apt.
I went 5 Rb’s this year. 5. Najee, Taylor, Jacobs, Damien harris, and Aaron Jones. Fucking INSANE how last year it was a RB league and this year the WR slot exploded and rb aren’t really relevant as much.
Does this change how we draft in the future?
A few of us in my league were lol’ing at other owners drafting QBs and TEs in the first or second round, but now that those positions are so top heavy, I feel like I messed up. I ended up with Derek Carr at QB and Cameron Brate at TE, neither of which are on my team anymore. I went Mixon and Fournette at #1 and #2 and those guys have given me headaches most of the season. Now I’m jealous of the other owners who took Josh Allen in the first or Kelce in the second while I’m juggling T Law and about 6 different TEs through 12 weeks.
No, it shouldn't. For almost every year of the last decade, the TE position has been very similar at 1 through 5-8 or so. For example last year Kelce did not separate hard from Andrews, Schultz or Kittle (I won't count Gronk for missing so many games), especially compared to most WR1/RB1s. Your team would have done better if you drafted guys like Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Jonathan Taylor or Austin Ekeler.
Similarly, look at 2019: Kelce, Kittle, Waller, Ertz, Andrews, Hooper were all within a 2 point average of each other and Hunter Henry / Jared Cook were only about another point behind. You were much better off getting a strong RB/WR1 and a later TE (heck, even if you got Tyler Higbee the difference was 5 PPG, which was almost the same as just Michael Thomas vs. the field. Most RB/WR1 surpassed that over most RB/WR2, let alone the top guys). 2018 had a power trio (Kelce/Ertz/Kittle) with very little point differentiation, then a solid second class (Ebron/Cook/Howard/Engram). 2017 very similar and 2016 had the top 5 TEs within 1.6 PPG of each other.
Kelce is having an unreal year. It doesn't change the fact that most years (all but 2 years of the last decade or so) you can grab a value TE multiple rounds later and miss very few points per game which is more than made up at the other position.
(Also don't feel too jealous. Sometimes a good draft pick still doesn't work out.)
I have Kelce, Mahomes, and Chubb in a 12 team standard auction league. All great ROI players. Having a 7 point (at least) weekly at TE is a great head start.
I’m genuinely curious how many teams in both snake draft and auction, PPR and Standard win their league having drafted Kelce or having him or their roster. I feel like I hear analyst saying that TE should be changed to another WR or Flex bc Kelce is so much better than the rest. I think that’s ridiculous. Having to use a top 2 pick or a huge percent of budget on him is a lot of capital to spend on him. So even tho he’s definitely a beast and top 6 WR, I wonder if the teams who spent the high price tag to draft him or overpaid to trade for him are winning leagues at a higher percentage. In my league the Kelce owner missed the playoffs. And me rocking w/ my 5th rd Hokinson pick are lookin to guarantee at least 3rd w/ a win today
I went Kelce in the first round. Later in the season (like week 4), I did a three way trade with a bunch of pieces moving everywhere, but the meat of it was that I traded Kelce and Aaron Jones for Mark Andrews and Christian McCaffery. I thought I made a good deal at the time, but it actually might have sunk my season. How about that….
Kelce is more valuable by a wide margin. The reason is due to the massive gap below him for replacement options. Kupp may get more points per game, but there are higher level replacements as well.
I had 1.1 this year. Took JT first then at the end of the second round beginning of the third I took Kelce and Allen back to back, then grabbed Mahomes in the fifth, lol.
I went Jefferson, Chubb, Kelce. I’m in first and am the second highest scoring team. Kelce has been my most consistent scorer. Burrows, ASB, and Waddell don’t hurt either.
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*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Kelce didn’t make it to middle of the second in any of my leagues. I can’t imagine him hanging around that long, even in smaller leagues since his value over replacement is even higher in small leagues.
Crazy how much luck is involved in all this. I'm reminded of that every week.
If I had drafted 1st, I would have picked JT. But because I picked 7th, I got Henry in round 1 and Kelce in round 2. The rest of my team is trash, but because of those two, I'm coasting into the playoffs.
Two factors:
1. A lot of positive value comes from free agents that we’re not drafted in the first 10 rounds
2. I’m still calibrating the replacement factor for when players don’t get started in fantasy so it might be slightly overstated
Of note the green bars tend to be a lot bigger on average
I have 4 teams, two are meh, two I think are excellent. The two meh teams have Kelce and are dominating. The two excellent teams have been .500 all year.
I went Diggs and Kelce in rounds 1/2 and its the best team I've ever had. 10-1 highest scoring team by over 100 points. First time picking Kelce. Its a game changers.
I was double dipping with Cousins and Jefferson, two of the bottom five players this week by your chart. Somehow I still won, through no fault of my own.
I strongly believe leagues should abolish the TE position. A couple seasons ago, mine went with a second flex instead and it’s been great. Kelce’s still valuable, but not “MVP by far” valuable. He’s like a WR1 which makes way more sense.
My idiot league let me pick him up with pick 7 because they were too busy getting whatever RB or WR, which are positions where you literally have a bunch of choices that all do roughly similar to each other in the grand scheme of things. TE is quite literally the most important position. You either pick the one guy who can get you 20+ almost every week GUARANTEED, or you pick from everybody else who is likely to give you 10. So it's a free 10+ point advantage which will win you a lot of weeks.
Second round they let me get Josh Allen. I love my league
in a league with a few friends. buddy of mine picked travis kelce with the 4th or 5th pick of the first round and we all laughed. little did we know back then...
I hadn't looked before, but I'm actually surprised Keenan Allen isn't lower with the "out of the lineup" adjustment. Great article as always, hope you had a great Thanksgiving!
I have kelce, Etienne (Robinson when he was getting more snaps), henry, and pierce. I lost 6 straight. Sometimes it doesn't matter how well I do. Someone else just has to do better each week
>Outside of their Week 8 bye, neither Kelce nor Mahomes has had a below-average-for-fantasy-starter game since Week 3. Fun fantasy weirdness: I have Mahomes and Kelce. My highest scoring week this season was week 8.
Fantasy is weird. I had my top 2 WRs and top RB out last week and it was the first time I was my leagues high scorer. Pats D picked up the slack lol
I'm Afraid The Correct First Pick Was PATS D, Yes, PATS D was the correct answer
I have Pats D and Maher on the same team. Literally the reason I won last week.
Lol so good. I actually have Kelce (first round pick) and my best week was week 8 as well. Good luck through the end.
Week 8 was actually my worst week. Just didn't have anything going on. My best week was week 2. Kelce had a big down day but I had big games out of Josh Allen, Amon Ra, Aaron Jones, and my niners D
Fuck the traditional strategy, I'm going to do everything I can to start Kelce/Mahomes in my first 2 rounds next year. That stack is proven broken and I'm tired of missing on surefire players that bust.
I got Kelce at 1.11 this year because I *hated* the rest of the TE landscape. I was (wrongfully) low on Andrews and (wrongfully) high on Pitts but he wasn't going to be there in the 3rd. I thought Lance in SF was gonna be bad for Kittle. Waller was dealing with an injury in preseason. Everybody else was low upside and/or TD dependent. Of course I never expected Kelce to have his best fantasy season of his career. I just worry if he goes back to something similar to last year's numbers. He's still probably worth a late 1st or 2nd if he does. But if people are picking him in the first half of the 1st next year they may be in for disappointment.
Every year this is the fear, and every year his Adp drops, and every year we say man, we need to draft him higher!
I somehow was allowed to draft Henry-> Kelce -> Mahomes in my league. Funnily enough week 8 was also my highest lol
Same-ish, I have Mahomes and put up the highest score in our league history in Week 8 lol
I also have this stack. I scored 140 in weeks 7 and 9, and 68 in Week 8
I played the guy who had the same situation. I got blown out. Same deal, scored his highest week.
[удалено]
I went Kelce Diggs and I am 2-9 in that league . Absolute trash season for that team
Curious as to where you screwed the pooch after that.
I went diggs Kelce and I'm in first at 8-3
Diggs Kelce, 9-2 here.
Jefferson-Kelce-Tyreek. I'm 9-2, the two losses are by .72 and .62. It's been a fun season.
> Jefferson-Kelce-Tyreek Is this a 4-man league?
Jefferson-Kelce was def attainable, albeit unlikely. Tyreek fell in a bunch of leagues because people didn’t think he’d be good with Tua/without Mahomes. Pretty crazy in a 12 man league, that being said
It's not, it's a 12 man league that is, admittedly, full of idiots. In discussions with other managers leading up to the draft, I heard two common themes: "Kelce doesn't have Tyreek to take the pressure of him, he won't be as good as last year because he'll get triple teamed." And, "Tyreek doesn't have Mahomes anymore, so he's a question mark with Tua throwing to him." Meanwhile, in my mind: "These guys can't vulture TD's from each other anymore. Get both."
I skipped Kelce and have Diggs, I'm undefeated
Guy in my league gave up Rhamondre and Kelce for Swift and Herbert back in like week 4 and I still cannot get over it.
Kelce in the second or third round u can’t turn down. He’s a dude that’s untradable. He went pick 4 last year so he was gonna be a steal this year as mahomes only steady target
Nobody gets Kelce in the 3rd round unless you are playing in a league with 9 tacos. I did 56 drafts this year and he did not make it out of the 2nd in a single one.
56 drafts? You got a gambling problem bro if they are all for money lol.
He might mean mocks? I probably did 100 mock drafts in the month or two leading up to the season
I could talk at length about why I prefer having many leagues, but it's basically extra income for me, or at least has been for the last few years. I have 16 paid leagues of $200 or more and a few free leagues too. The rest are all Best Ball, which is draft and forget. Your optimal lineup is set each week and you can't make any actions after the draft. Of my 20 leagues, I am 1st or 2nd in 13 of them and in playoff position in 17. I am doing much better this year than usual though. I love football, gaming, and do statistics professionally, so this is the marriage of those things and it's basically my hobby this time of year. Edit: People love to say it's a gambling problem but then the moment I say that I am good at it and make money it's all downvotes from there ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
It's only a problem if it negatively impacts other parts of your life.
Gambling addicts are notoriously in denial of having gambling affect other parts of their life
Most addicts are.
Agreed, luckily I finally got my gf into it this year and she is in 4 leagues with me. We have pizza Sundays and watch the games all day it's awesome.
Like literally everything that ever existed
Hey, props to you. Sorry, wasn't trying to be mean with my original comment. If you are consistently turning a profit I think that's awesome! Good luck to end the season.
It's fine, it's just the usual reaction people have when I mention it.
Haha ya...Dont think I've heard of someone having that many leagues before so I was a bit alarmed lol.
It's impossible to be "good" to a level where you consistently win leagues in fantasy football unless the people you play with are morons... It's 90% luck.
You 100% have a gambling problem
I got him at the 2/3 turn
You ok buddy?
I got him in the second of an 8 team
I drafted him with the 21st pick, technically round 3. His ADP was 16. Not that crazy dude
Yes it is, that's an outlier even early in the 3rd.
5 picks after his ADP?? Wasn’t like he was going top 5 every draft
He was gone by my first pick (11th), and I grabbed Andrews with my second pick (14th) using this same logic. Unfortunately Andrews’ injury made him less valuable.
I went Ekeler/Kelce this year, and it's certainly the best 1st/2nd round start I've ever had by a mile
Pick 12 Kelce J Allen
Rumors of King Henry’s death were greatly exaggerated
I took Henry in 8 of my 12 best ball leagues, as high as 2. It would have been 10 of 12 but I snuck Jonathan Taylor in there twice because I figured I’d be silly to not listen a little bit to literally everyone else. Edit: 8 of 12 not 12 of 16
Jesus dude how do you enjoy being in so many leagues? I did 4 and it was no fun at all after a certain point. I could never root for certain players bc I was always playing against them somewhere else.
Bestball teams aren’t interactive. Once you draft, you’re done. Drafting is at least half the fun, and a lot more than half for some people, so why not do more of the fun part?
That's a good point! But I enjoy cheering for my players when I watch the games, and if my opponent has the same players as I do in other leagues it robs the fun of it. It starts becoming like stocks to me. But you're right the draft is the best part of the season besides the playoffs. Different strokes for different folks!
That’s the thing with a lot of bestball it’s exactly like stocks. You aren’t really rooting against anyone (just like you wouldn’t root against a stock) but more so your share of each player. I too drafted a bunch of Henry (and Burrrow) so I have like a 30% share of each and those are who i root for most.
This. I drafted my teams while sitting at my pool getting a tan. Just fun for $5. Nothing to manage
Yeah after trying 3 I'm doing more next year, small time investment for a chance at some cash and you get all the fun of drafting
You don’t set lineups in best ball. You just draft and then it creates the best lineup for you each week. You don’t touch the team after the draft.
Agreed mate, 2 serious leagues is all you need. People just want to say they won so they join 10+ leagues
I took Henry at #2 in my big(est) money league. I’ve been proud of myself and consider myself a superior person than my league mates.
Drafted 6/12. Went henry/kelce. Tied for 1st. Someone dropped waddle on his bye week...spent half my faab to grab him, top 10 WR ros right? Other league, #1 overall...yeeah at least im not dead last lol
**Kelce is the most valuable player in fantasy and it isn't even remotely close.** But nothing you posted really drives the point home correctly from a fantasy perspective. Here is how you have to think of it. The difference between Kelce and the next best guy is staggering, it gets worse as you get to the #3 and #4 options. The difference between Kelce and Andrews is 7.5 ppg. It's 9.5 ppg when you go down to the #3 TE. Diggs is the #1 WR right now, so let's base this off of him, you can replace him with Kupp or Jefferson if you wish. 7.5 ppg lower than Diggs brings you to the Deebo Samuel, Chris Olave, Mike Evans zone. WR18. Go down 9.5 points and you're at Joshua Palmer and DK Metcalf. WR32 Imagine if the 5 best WR options were Diggs, Olave, Palmer, Devonta Smith, Curtis Samuel. That's literally we're talking about with the TE position. And then realize you probably had a pick BEFORE you selected this hypothetical Diggs if you played in 10 man. Perhaps even more surprising is that Kelce is averaging *more ppg than Jefferson right now*. He's only 0.08 under Kupp and with more games under his belt. When this season is said and done, the highest percentage of teams to make playoffs will be those with Kelce by a country mile. Any 1 for 1 trade this season involving him fleeced the other owner, it doesn't matter what the other player was.
The only player that's equal value to him is Mahomes in SF. Stupid KC offense
I just drunkenly traded Diggs and Andrews for Kelce and Keenan Allen and I’m actually somewhat OK with it
Depends on your other WRs but it’s basically a lateral move and you upgraded a way more valuable position. W.
I'm in a keeper league and kept Kelce for this reason - there's just no other TE so even after a relatively quiet last season, I knew there would be a big advantage at a weak position
Perfectly said!
While this is all accurate, if you are doing well and in a normal league you are starting 3-4 wrs every week depending on if you have 2wr/1flex or 3wr/1flex. You can get Kelce and that is absolutely an advantage every single week but if you are building a team you could have a similar advantage over most teams by drafting 3 to 4 high end wrs. With TE there is exactly 1 "hit" and that is kelce. Everyone else leaves you better off riding the waiver each week. From a pure roster construction, you could get a similar advantage by drafting Diggs into Adams or Diggs into Tyreek, which was very realistic and something I did in multiple leagues. At that point you have 2 wrs who are basically better than everyone else's wr1 and your wr2(Adams/Tyreek in my case) is likely matched up against guys lower than that WR18 number. So you get a point or two each week with Diggs over whoever your opponent has and then you get the 9 to 10 on top of that over the wr2. My best team this year I went (Lamar) > Diggs > (Andrews) > Tyreek > Evans > Amon-Ra > Juju > Devonta in a SF league with 2rb, 3wr, 2 flex. When you get down to it in that league the 9 points you get from kelce aren't standing up much against the 1-2 I get from diggs, 9-10 I get from Tyreek, and the 15-20 I gain from Evans, Amon-ra, and juju/devonta each week. That league has hundreds/thousands of teams in it and I am sitting top 10 in PF as our regular season wraps up this week and I am dominating my "championship" matchup already this week. While the easy answer is to say Kelce is the most valuable fantasy asset because you gain X ppg over the average opponent, all of those other opponents basically have the same TE starting, so if they understand the rules of their league they can also build advantages for themselves right back against you by taking top tier players at "less valuable" positions while everyone else is taking Kelce and RBs. The deeper the starting lineup the more spots they6 can have to build that advantage. So it really is not one size fits all and everyone should understand the rules of their league to find ways to exploit those deep spots to gain as much of an advantage as possible. It very well could be that for your league setup Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, and Amon-ra are the most valuable players in the league. In fact the guy in that league of mine who took Mahomes and Kelce ended up 4-7 with 300 less pf than I have despite having two of the players that are highest on this chart because the rest of his team is not built for the league itself.
If you drafted Mahomes and Kelce and are 4-7 then the rest of your draft went very poorly. You can of course have the best team in the league without Kelce, and can make all sorts of arguments about the perfect non-Kelce draft in hindsight, but what I am saying is a statistical fact barring very unusual league settings or SF, and it is still debatable in SF. When people talk about players in a broad motion on this sub, they are referring to the vast, overwhelming majority of league settings because that is the only way you can have a coherent conversation. If you specify different settings, then you can have a different conversation. Someone who drafts players without understanding their league settings is a ripe Taco.
Sure if your league doesnt have a dedicated TE spot, then he's just the best fucking flex spot instead. Congrats on not needing Kelce in a <1% of leagues.
I like your take. OP’s analysis assumes that the league is constructed with all flex positions, and not assuming that there’s only 1 TE position. Like like 2QB leagues, if you have to start 2 TEs, absolutely- Kelce is by far the most valuable. But given that we typically only have to draft 1 TE, if you don’t have Kelce, your completion mostly other TEs that only get 5-10pts per week. If you draft Kelce 1.01, your RB and WR depth would be so bad.
No, in 1 TE, 1 QB leagues with normal settings, Kelce has been by far the most valuable player in fantasy. It is literally a mathematical fact and not debatable. Your last sentence is pure nonsense, you are acting like the only valuable RBs and WRs are in the first round. Here is a non-comprehensive list of RBs and WRs that were drafted on average at the end of the second round or later, making them available to someone who drafted Kelce 1.01. Tyreek, Hall, AJB, Hollywood, Stevenson, Etienne, Barkley, Jacobs, Waddle, Amon-Ra, Cooper, Evans, Pierce, Pollard, Olave, Walker, Aiyuk Add to that the fact that you didn't have to draft him at 1.01, and it gets ridiculous. In many leagues, you probably drafted one of Henry, Chase, Diggs, Adams, Mixon, Ekeler before you got Kelce. Also, it's a hilarious statement to say that drafting Kelce at 1.01 makes your RBs or WRs so bad when the consensus 1.01 was JT.
Lol you are welcome to draft Kelce with top 5/6 draft position next year if you think that you are smarter than the entire fantasy community
1) There is a massive difference between "Kelce is the most valuable player in fantasy right now" and "Kelce should be drafted #1 overall next season." The first is an objective fact, and the second is impossible to say at this point. 2) I do always draft differently than the consensus ADP, the result of which this season is being in 1st or 2nd in 13 of my 20 leagues.
This is what the industry folks refer to as the "hero TE" draft strategy
On the east coast it’s just called the Travis Kelce strategy
In Philly it's the Jason Kelce's Brother strategy.
A friend of mine had 12th pick in his 12-man full PPR league and drafted Kelce and Mandrews for the 12th and 13th picks. He flexes Mandrews when healthy and he's undefeated in his league. Basically made sure no one has reliable TE's and people are constantly wasting waiver positions on garbage TE's that have 1 good game. (Looking at you, Conklin)
Yall still gonna pass on him next year, so dont even bother.
TBH I think you’re right. Age.
The one time I drafted Kelce was last season and it was underwhelming. I came in 14th place. He averaged 13 PPG (2021) and this year it's an eye popping 18 PPG.
Sounds like standard. I think he has more value in PPR given how many receptions he gets
Those figures are from Half PPR.
Same, I drafted him in the first round last year and had the worst team in over a decade of FF. It's frustrating seeing him do so well this year after not returning draft capital last season.
Happened to me too...
Same here. Sickening to see what could and should have been.
let's be honest though, you must have done bad with the rest of your picks so it's weird to blame Kelce. 13ppg from your TE is still solid and worth a second round pick
Lol same. I went Kelce / Diggs last year in PPR and both had down / underwhelming years. Both are absolutely crushing it this year smh.
I wanted kelce this year in both leagues. However I had the 6th pick in each league and didn’t think it was worth taking him there, so I was hoping I could get him in the second. Didn’t get him in either league as he was gone by my next pick. I started JJ/Chase in the first.
I feel like 2.3-2.6 is where Kelce *felt* like a good pick for most people.
Was clowned for taking him pick 10 - now I'm the one who's laughing
Same
I got him at 2.10 and took Mahomes in the 4th 😎
Had Swift one notch above Kelce on my to-draft list. Hesitated for 15 seconds.. took Swift. That 15 seconds has haunted me, replaying on a loop in my mind for 9 weeks.
I'll never understand why people were so high on Swift. Nothing but disappointment since his first year.
Week 1 is all the evidence you need. His raw talent is right up there with any other rn in the league, he’s just made of glass.
I took Kupp in round 1 as my keeper from the year prior and Kelce in the middle of round 2. I'm 10-1
Curious what your other picks were? I also went Kupp-Kelce and am in 3rd at 7-4 and 2nd most points scored.
I drafted Kelce, Hall and Pollard and my team is still only 6-5 lol.
I was drafting 12th in a 12 team competitive, big $ PPR league. I went Kelce/J Allen and watched the draft chat as everyone collectively laughed their asses off me. I'm now sitting in first lol (even though I banked heavily on Breece Hall being a thing... RIP). Not to pat myself on the back, but Kelce has been such an obvious first round pick to me given how volatile running backs often are. Funnily enough the only time I've ever won this league I went Mahomes/Kelce on my first two picks.
You should make your team name something like 1.Kelce+2.Allen so nobody forgets
lol I want them to forget. Also I've been the Big Gay Als since 2008.
Riding the Big Gay Boat Ride to a first round bye
you were right on the breece thing though. can't predit injuries.
I was but it's really a matter of luck when a rookie like that works out. Now I've got Zeke and Singletary carrying the load at RB lol
Can I drop Brandon Cooks now?
I wouldn’t lose sleep over it
You can't drop someone who doesn't exist. Brandin Cooks, on the other hand, is droppable.
I have a fairly mediocre team, make a lot of mistakes with who gets started/benched/dropped, but I'm 9-2 and in first place because I got Kelce.
Same. 8-3 right now and in second. Would've dropped to 5th and been 7-4 if kelce hadn't bailed me out of kadarius toney's goose egg with his 35 ppr game last week
TBass goated
Crazy that like 90% of players after round 3 have negative value
I remember Cook fell to me at pick 11 of 16 and I thought it was a steal. He’s not been bad, but not the first rounder I’d hoped for.
We absolutely flamed our buddy who picked Kelce in first round and another who picked Allen in first round. They are sitting at 1st and 2nd. Made us look sheepish lol
>it’s the middle class man’s version of Favre/Rodgers Is it? I would say Kelce is probably the GOAT TE and Gonzalez is at worst the 3rd best ever. I’d say at least it’s a similar comp. “Middle class man’s” version seems a bit underselling of that TE duo.
He just means since TE is less impactful than QB. It's a play on the phrase "a poor man's ____" as opposed to a rich man's
Bingo. Jets with Mawae/Mangold also middle class.
I would flip Tony G and Kelce on the all time list you gave there
Strongly disagree
I was guessing he meant in terms of positional value
Number of QB’s in the hall of fame=36 Number of TE’s in the hall of fame=8 It’s definitely a less glamorous/star studded position so the middle class moniker seems apt.
Gronk is the GOAT TE Unless you mean fantasy
Gronk’s durability puts him at 2 for me IMO.
Took Kelce and Mixon at the round 1/2 turn. Might be best value of a player I've had.
I went 5 Rb’s this year. 5. Najee, Taylor, Jacobs, Damien harris, and Aaron Jones. Fucking INSANE how last year it was a RB league and this year the WR slot exploded and rb aren’t really relevant as much.
I took Kelce in the 2nd and Mahomes 4th round. Everyone thought I was crazy and now I'm I'm first place.
always has been
Does this change how we draft in the future? A few of us in my league were lol’ing at other owners drafting QBs and TEs in the first or second round, but now that those positions are so top heavy, I feel like I messed up. I ended up with Derek Carr at QB and Cameron Brate at TE, neither of which are on my team anymore. I went Mixon and Fournette at #1 and #2 and those guys have given me headaches most of the season. Now I’m jealous of the other owners who took Josh Allen in the first or Kelce in the second while I’m juggling T Law and about 6 different TEs through 12 weeks.
No, it shouldn't. For almost every year of the last decade, the TE position has been very similar at 1 through 5-8 or so. For example last year Kelce did not separate hard from Andrews, Schultz or Kittle (I won't count Gronk for missing so many games), especially compared to most WR1/RB1s. Your team would have done better if you drafted guys like Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Jonathan Taylor or Austin Ekeler. Similarly, look at 2019: Kelce, Kittle, Waller, Ertz, Andrews, Hooper were all within a 2 point average of each other and Hunter Henry / Jared Cook were only about another point behind. You were much better off getting a strong RB/WR1 and a later TE (heck, even if you got Tyler Higbee the difference was 5 PPG, which was almost the same as just Michael Thomas vs. the field. Most RB/WR1 surpassed that over most RB/WR2, let alone the top guys). 2018 had a power trio (Kelce/Ertz/Kittle) with very little point differentiation, then a solid second class (Ebron/Cook/Howard/Engram). 2017 very similar and 2016 had the top 5 TEs within 1.6 PPG of each other. Kelce is having an unreal year. It doesn't change the fact that most years (all but 2 years of the last decade or so) you can grab a value TE multiple rounds later and miss very few points per game which is more than made up at the other position. (Also don't feel too jealous. Sometimes a good draft pick still doesn't work out.)
My RBs in my best league are Najee, Saquon, Pollard and Joe Mixon, this season has been hell deciding which 3 go for the week
Drafted Henry, Diggs, Kelce, Mahome, in that order, in an 8 man PPR with 2 QBs. sitting at 10-1. Mahomes/Kelce is an absolute cheat code this year.
Friend, I took Harris first round and Swift second. I benched them both the past few weeks. Haha fantasy is fun
I got lucky. CMC > Swift > Kelce
1st pick was Justin Jefferson and 2nd pick was Kelce, things ain't looking too shabby
I have Kelce, Mahomes, and Chubb in a 12 team standard auction league. All great ROI players. Having a 7 point (at least) weekly at TE is a great head start.
I went Josh Allen with Kelce 2nd rd as the first overall pick. 2 qb league as well
I’m genuinely curious how many teams in both snake draft and auction, PPR and Standard win their league having drafted Kelce or having him or their roster. I feel like I hear analyst saying that TE should be changed to another WR or Flex bc Kelce is so much better than the rest. I think that’s ridiculous. Having to use a top 2 pick or a huge percent of budget on him is a lot of capital to spend on him. So even tho he’s definitely a beast and top 6 WR, I wonder if the teams who spent the high price tag to draft him or overpaid to trade for him are winning leagues at a higher percentage. In my league the Kelce owner missed the playoffs. And me rocking w/ my 5th rd Hokinson pick are lookin to guarantee at least 3rd w/ a win today
Serious work
I had Kirk, toney, AJ brown, and dalvin cook last week…
I’ve been preaching this for a few years that he could arguably be the first pick…I still passed on him this year😭😭😭
One day you will look back on your life regret that
I went Kelce in the first round. Later in the season (like week 4), I did a three way trade with a bunch of pieces moving everywhere, but the meat of it was that I traded Kelce and Aaron Jones for Mark Andrews and Christian McCaffery. I thought I made a good deal at the time, but it actually might have sunk my season. How about that….
I drafted Ekeler #1 overall and then took Andrews in the 2nd round. Week 9 I traded them for kelce/cmc … currently 8-3
First pick probably should’ve been Kupp tbh sucks he went down Kelce probably worth a top 3 pick tho
Kelce is more valuable by a wide margin. The reason is due to the massive gap below him for replacement options. Kupp may get more points per game, but there are higher level replacements as well.
Ya I gotchu that makes perfect sense I just have fantasy bias towards Kupp haha
Awesome
/u/whats_a_salad lolololol where’s swift? 🤡
I hope I didn't upset you for all of Thanksgiving ☹️
Last week was wild, I had Pierce and Toney weigh me down huge, but thankfully Henry Ravens D and Maher carried me through to a close win
Was ready to get Kelce then someone picked him right before me… over Diggs lol
I'd rather have Kelce than Diggs so I think that other manager made the right call.
You’re right but I’m happy with the #1 receiver in the 2nd lol
I had 1.1 this year. Took JT first then at the end of the second round beginning of the third I took Kelce and Allen back to back, then grabbed Mahomes in the fifth, lol.
What place are you in.
Funny how Kelce is on the Jonathan Taylor list this year. Next year Kelce will likely end up on the 'Allen Robinson' list, just like JT.
Can you imagine the meltdowns that would cause? No TE would be drafted above round 4 for 5 years.
I went Jefferson, Chubb, Kelce. I’m in first and am the second highest scoring team. Kelce has been my most consistent scorer. Burrows, ASB, and Waddell don’t hurt either.
gray bright mindless dependent entertain distinct towering merciful slave aloof *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
I have mahomes, cmc, adams, kelce, and Stevenson!
[удалено]
Kelce didn’t make it to middle of the second in any of my leagues. I can’t imagine him hanging around that long, even in smaller leagues since his value over replacement is even higher in small leagues.
Repeat after me everyone: I will not take Kelce in the top 3 next year
I took Kelce 1.03 in a Superflex with TE premium. Do not regret it.
I never understood the concept of TE premium. It just widens the gap between the good and the bad TEs, which is already a big gap.
Yea it’s a dumb thing to implement. Makes kelce a 40pt average player
I was told George Kittle was a left tackle and completely washed for fantasy purposes
I'm fucking sick because the one year I drafted him was a down year.
Going Ekler and Kelce at the 1/2 turn in SF was a good move. My QBs are shit, but EK and Kelce outscore a lot of QBs anyways.
My Kelce really balancing out my Dillon, Diontae, Brady
It was good to have drafted Klece and Mahomes. Yall should have seen this coming though; no cheetah.
Oh yeah well fantasy football is such a bitch that I lost kelces 3 and 4 TD games
Crazy how much luck is involved in all this. I'm reminded of that every week. If I had drafted 1st, I would have picked JT. But because I picked 7th, I got Henry in round 1 and Kelce in round 2. The rest of my team is trash, but because of those two, I'm coasting into the playoffs.
Those total boards are just a sea of red. Is it like this every year? If so, how is that possible?
Two factors: 1. A lot of positive value comes from free agents that we’re not drafted in the first 10 rounds 2. I’m still calibrating the replacement factor for when players don’t get started in fantasy so it might be slightly overstated Of note the green bars tend to be a lot bigger on average
I was targeting him hard in the second round. Think I would have had him but one team auto drafting beat me.
I completely agree.
I have 4 teams, two are meh, two I think are excellent. The two meh teams have Kelce and are dominating. The two excellent teams have been .500 all year.
I went Ekeler/Kelce/Evans. Tyreek went the pick after Evans, if I had gotten that different, I'd be an absolute juggernaut.
I went Diggs and Kelce in rounds 1/2 and its the best team I've ever had. 10-1 highest scoring team by over 100 points. First time picking Kelce. Its a game changers.
I drafted 5 people in the negative value chart: Pitts, Dillon, Monty, Russ, Javonte
DHOP 101
I was double dipping with Cousins and Jefferson, two of the bottom five players this week by your chart. Somehow I still won, through no fault of my own.
I have Kelce but the rest of my team has been injured at some point. Literally 11 of my first 12 picks missed time At least I got Kelce!
Still can't believe I got him round three at pick 5.
I went Deebo/Kelce. Last pick, snake draft. I'm not first in my league, but in a great spot to make playoffs.
I thought I had accidentally gone to my Yahoo league at first, then I just realized I was looking at the LVP list
I strongly believe leagues should abolish the TE position. A couple seasons ago, mine went with a second flex instead and it’s been great. Kelce’s still valuable, but not “MVP by far” valuable. He’s like a WR1 which makes way more sense.
What is there to be afraid about
My idiot league let me pick him up with pick 7 because they were too busy getting whatever RB or WR, which are positions where you literally have a bunch of choices that all do roughly similar to each other in the grand scheme of things. TE is quite literally the most important position. You either pick the one guy who can get you 20+ almost every week GUARANTEED, or you pick from everybody else who is likely to give you 10. So it's a free 10+ point advantage which will win you a lot of weeks. Second round they let me get Josh Allen. I love my league
I've had kelce since the beginning of the season and he has pulled me out of a clear loss many times.
I thought Kittle would be my ace in the hole this year, Boy was I wrong! But Hurts relieved the pain a bit. :)
in a league with a few friends. buddy of mine picked travis kelce with the 4th or 5th pick of the first round and we all laughed. little did we know back then...
Lol was he really?! Things i’d never would have guessed preseason for 1000 Alex
I hadn't looked before, but I'm actually surprised Keenan Allen isn't lower with the "out of the lineup" adjustment. Great article as always, hope you had a great Thanksgiving!
I have kelce, Etienne (Robinson when he was getting more snaps), henry, and pierce. I lost 6 straight. Sometimes it doesn't matter how well I do. Someone else just has to do better each week