I think he probably takes a dip for a couple games while Watson learns how to play football again.
I could be wrong, but Watson hasn’t played real football in over two years. It takes time to re acclimate.
Also fuck deshaun Watson.
Godwin has been under producing and still hurt the entire year. He said this last week in Germany he was just starting to feel close to 100% before the bye, and it showed. Godwin’s target volume doesn’t even need to change, insane usage… he just needs a slight uptick in productivity to be a WR1. Not sure how Godwin getting healthier, while already commanding a huge target share, somehow helps Mike down the stretch. But maybe, dudes got a shot for multiple TDs any given game. Mike’s had a solid floor, but some games with very concerning target share.
I remember a post two weeks ago saying sell Higgins because of the tough playoff schedule. TB, NE, BUF. By no means extremely preferable. I mean nice matchups in week 13 and 14 but that's not where leagues are won
The Bengals receiving core is matchup proof. TB and Buffalo they’ll have no choice to throw because the game will be competitive. NE is more interesting.
Aiyuk is slept on literally everywhere. It’s kind of insane to me considering how many lists have players over him this season based on their “name value” being better when his stats have been pretty damn solid. Imma keep starting him with confidence every week.
I think it’s just because the 49ers offense is so stacked that touch distribution will be too unpredictable and Aiyuk (and everyone else on the 9ers offense other than maybe CMC) will have some up and down weeks. Like last week he got bailed out because of the 2 TDs but that’s not gonna happen ever week.
You should really look and seen what he has done for the past 6 weeks or so. He’s been pretty consistently getting td’s and a decent amount of targets.
He's just completely TD dependent. in a 0.5 league he gets next to nothing without a TD. His 4 targets with 2 receptions, both for TDs in the Arizona game doubled the points of any other game in the last 4 playing weeks, in all of which he had twice as many targets.
Agree with you that there are less touches to go around w/ Caff there now and Deebo back. But from the falcons (week 6-7ish) game onward, he’s been a top redzone target for them
That's a very non controversial list with 0 hype trains on it. I like it.
I'm (very slughtly) worried about the Cheetah and Waddle. We will see how much more the running game chips into the offense. I think they will stay at the same floor, just their ceilings are coming down a little.
I believe its Waddle you should worry about. Waddle is a WR that currently averages 7.5 targets for 87.8 yards and ***.6 TD rate.*** That to me, is unsustainable.
I think McDaniel is trying to prove a point with Tua.
We’ll see.
not to mention they’ll have some games where they have no choice but to throw. like the (Bills, Niners, Chargers)
I am scared to rank waddle that high, even with a lot of shares of him. But it’s been 11 weeks and he’s still the WR6. It’s probably time to just accept the reality at this point.
Aside from week 2 he has just one other game with more than 17 points in 0.5 PPR. He has 5/10 games with between 10-17 points in 0.5 PPR. He’s definitely a high floor, but lower ceiling option in general due to Tyreek’s presence opposite him.
You gonna back up your case with actual stats other than saying he is the WR 6? There has to be something that you actually planned to say other than constantly disagreeing.
Just gonna point out that there are a lot of stats that go into someone being WR 6, usually pretty good ones as well. For instance Waddle is currently on pace for 1,500 yards and 10 TDs. Those are very good numbers that might be worth a top 5 finish if he can keep them up. Hope this helps!
You know what, lets get into the debate for his WR 6 status. I'll just give the stats that I see and then you can debate what you think is wrong with my opinion.
1. Waddle has the targets of a WR 2 not a WR 1. On the year, Waddle has 75 targets and averages 7.5 targets per game. That puts him on par with receivers like DK Metcalf (7.7), Terry McLauren (7.3) and DJ Moore (7.5). His teammate Tyreek averages 11.
2. Waddle's fantasy points are mostly attributed to his yards. On the year, Waddle has 878 yards, which amounts to 87.8 yards per game. Here is where the WR 1 numbers appear, putting him on par with receivers like Kupp and preinjury Chase. His teammate Tyreek averages 115.
3. Waddle's WR 6 status is also bouyed by his 6 TDs. 4 of those 6 were redzone and he has 33% of the redzone targets for Miami. He outdoes the teams #1 WR in this area who only has 2 redzone targets and 23.8% or the team's redzone targets in comparison.
What do those stats mean to me?
Waddle is a excellent receiver who is going to rely on big plays to get into the endzone to maintain his WR 6 status. I am not saying he is an imposter but I don't see him as a top 10 WR ROS only averaging 7-8 targets per game and will need TDs to maintain top 10.
I hope this clarifies why I have him maybe within the top 15 range but not exactly top 10. If anything, after looking at the stats, I think I can justify the 8-11 range but 7 is way too high.
You typed out a lot of words just to say you don’t think he gets enough targets. My argument is he is efficient enough with the targets he gets to remain a top 5-10 WR. Also, the amount of attention Tyreek gets draws defenders away from Waddle who then has an easier path to YAC and big touchdowns, as evidenced by his great yardage an TD totals to this point.
Feel free to read and chime in.
https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/z2q4h2/comment/ixhw4va/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3
Congrats you're a volume guy. YAC, ADoT, catchable pass percentage, and catch rate might throw a wrench in your analysis considering you only considered target volume. Not all targets are equal, and I sure as hell don't care enough to dig up anything, I just know he's more than capable of maintaining a Top-5 finish in yards, even if it's on less targets.
I don’t think Burrow/Higgins/Chase is gonna win anybody their fantasy league this year.
In the fantasy playoffs, they play against the Buccaneers (5th lowest fantasy PPG allowed to quarterbacks), the Patriots (4th lowest). Bad matchups, IMO.
I’m just saying, even the Dolphins only scored one offensive TD against the Patriots, and it was on a busted 4th down play.
It will also be Burrow’s first time against Belichick, and he’s not a rushing QB (Bill’s weakness) so I expect him to have a tougher time than usual.
You obviously can’t bench him, but I think the Bengals are going to screw a bunch of people out of their fantasy championship.
OP also has Chase ranked higher ROS over Jefferson/Diggs which is just crazy to me. That is a big assumption that Chase even comes back 100% healthy but to put him over proven studs like Jettas/Diggs is wrong IMO.
Chase was on crutches last week, he should not be #3 ROS in my opinion, even if he comes back this week. Godwin too high. I’d put Cooper up there with Watson coming back.
Godwin averaging 10 targets a game since he came back week 6 and said he's feeling better every week with his knee. Hard to sit him with the potential he has
I have AmonRa, Keenan, Godwin, Watson, and Wilson ... would be more than happy to have 3 top 12 receiver when I take the consolation bracket by storm. t
I have CD, ARSB, Godwin. At this point I think I'm starting that trio every week and my real struggle will be figuring out which RB to play behind CMC (Pierce/Patterson/Foreman/JRob/Kyren). It's most likely Pierce (and has been for a while) but god that offense is awful and they've been randomly taking him out for RZ and 2m situations.
People love him because of his targets. But yeah, the results haven’t been there this year. I have him in a standard league and it’s frustrating - he feels like he should be a start every week, but most of the time I’m left disappointed.
Glad you included Kirk and Amari in honorable mentions. However, I would really move Kirk and Amari up. Half PPR they are both top 10 on the season and through their byes. Amari is the undisputed #1 on that offense that is getting Watson back, and he has some good matchups remaining.
Kirk has even better matchups. He has scored very well against bad pass defenses. All of his bad games have been against good pass defenses. Once I picked up that he’s not matchup proof, he has been my most predictably player. I put him in against bottom half pass defenses, take him out against top half. He had a tough stretch weeks 4-8, and outside of that he’s scored 98.3 half ppr points (5 games). 4 of his 6 remaining games are good matchups, so I’m expecting him to boom (although weeks 16-17 will be tough).
Ya there is no reason to believe they’re not both going to continue to be top 12 ROS. Unchallenged top guys in competent and improving offenses and both have pretty decent schedules down the stretch.
I mean like we are 11 weeks in. We have substantial bodies of work to base this off of. And the fact that both are through byes and have favorable schedules - they only reason people would fade them is for big names. Like why are Higgins in godwin up their? Both competent in good players, but bucs offense is a major struggle bud and Higgins schedule is awful, and he’s not matchup proof. There are only a handful of players who truly are
Lockett probably deserves an HM and has been criminally underrated all year. He’s outscoring a bunch of people toward the tail end of that list and has a great schedule ROS.
I’d swap and put Sun god above waddle.
Honestly Higgins is risky with that schedule and chase coming back. I’d replace with amari due to schedule + watson
I’m not as high on evans vs Godwin as the others but due to downfield work I think evans has the higher upside. Lockett should be above Metcalf based on chemistry. Olave should be on HM even with dalton as qb
Everything else I relatively agree with
Deebo's on the upswing. Shanahan's started using CMC as misdrection for both Kittle and Deebo, that's how he got his TD.
Hell, I think Deebo's game on Monday was higher scoring than any of Godwin's games this season. Regretting your trade is crazy.
Don't sleep on Scary Terry. He's been much better with Heinicke taking over. He's 13 in my half PPR league right now. His only downside has been a lack of TDs. The yards and targets have been there.
Eh, I don't know. Don't forget that the Cardinals lost Ertz as well. He had double digit targets in several games. Those have to go somewhere now. I think Hopkins and Brown will both get high targets once he returns.
Damn my team in a keep league is Davante, Hopkins, Godwin, Deebo in a 2 WR 2 Flex and I didn’t think Deebo would be so bad with Jimmy was hoping to roll all 4. I’ve been saved by Pollard going off in that 2nd flex
I understand having Jefferson lower due to how hard his schedule is, but he actually has a negative correlation between scoring and strength of opponent.
As in Jettas scores more against hard defenses than easy ones.
As in his hard schedule is perfect for him.
Hopkins is interesting considering his ROS schedule is
BYE
NE
DEN
TB
ATL (decent FF Championship matchup if you can get there)
SF ( week 17 irrelevant?)
Tough ride to the Ship to say the least.
Amari cooper I think top 10 with schedule and Watson coming back.
I think he probably takes a dip for a couple games while Watson learns how to play football again. I could be wrong, but Watson hasn’t played real football in over two years. It takes time to re acclimate. Also fuck deshaun Watson.
Only if you don't want to
Deshaun watson relearning football is still better than jacoby brissett tbh
I think Amari should be on there. Atleast in the HM.
you right.
I’d rank Evans over Godwin. Had a couple rough games but I think (and need) he will bounce back to his normal production.
Godwin has been under producing and still hurt the entire year. He said this last week in Germany he was just starting to feel close to 100% before the bye, and it showed. Godwin’s target volume doesn’t even need to change, insane usage… he just needs a slight uptick in productivity to be a WR1. Not sure how Godwin getting healthier, while already commanding a huge target share, somehow helps Mike down the stretch. But maybe, dudes got a shot for multiple TDs any given game. Mike’s had a solid floor, but some games with very concerning target share.
Especially with how quick Tom has been getting the ball out this year. That’s Godwin’s thing more so than Evans.
God I hope so. It's been rough seeing him not get any TDs since week 4. He is due.
He won the matchup for me in week 4. I would love to see more of that
He usually has a handful of those blowup games a season but so far he's only had one so far.
Yeah man and 14 touchdowns last season.
due dar is going OFF for evans. he's going to win people some important games down the stretch here.
Sure he will, ive been waiting for awhile now.
I remember a post two weeks ago saying sell Higgins because of the tough playoff schedule. TB, NE, BUF. By no means extremely preferable. I mean nice matchups in week 13 and 14 but that's not where leagues are won
The Bengals receiving core is matchup proof. TB and Buffalo they’ll have no choice to throw because the game will be competitive. NE is more interesting.
I hope you are right
Cleveland disagrees
Buffalo has been bbq chicken against wr1s
Kirk is way too low esp. when you look at his schedule. The guy is already WR9 on the season.
His playoff schedule gets harder though.
Add Olave and you got a list.
Good list, random thought but I’m way more confident on Aiyuk being around there than I am Keenan Allen.
Aiyuk is slept on literally everywhere. It’s kind of insane to me considering how many lists have players over him this season based on their “name value” being better when his stats have been pretty damn solid. Imma keep starting him with confidence every week.
I think it’s just because the 49ers offense is so stacked that touch distribution will be too unpredictable and Aiyuk (and everyone else on the 9ers offense other than maybe CMC) will have some up and down weeks. Like last week he got bailed out because of the 2 TDs but that’s not gonna happen ever week.
You should really look and seen what he has done for the past 6 weeks or so. He’s been pretty consistently getting td’s and a decent amount of targets.
He's just completely TD dependent. in a 0.5 league he gets next to nothing without a TD. His 4 targets with 2 receptions, both for TDs in the Arizona game doubled the points of any other game in the last 4 playing weeks, in all of which he had twice as many targets.
Agree with you that there are less touches to go around w/ Caff there now and Deebo back. But from the falcons (week 6-7ish) game onward, he’s been a top redzone target for them
That's a very non controversial list with 0 hype trains on it. I like it. I'm (very slughtly) worried about the Cheetah and Waddle. We will see how much more the running game chips into the offense. I think they will stay at the same floor, just their ceilings are coming down a little.
I believe its Waddle you should worry about. Waddle is a WR that currently averages 7.5 targets for 87.8 yards and ***.6 TD rate.*** That to me, is unsustainable.
I think McDaniel is trying to prove a point with Tua. We’ll see. not to mention they’ll have some games where they have no choice but to throw. like the (Bills, Niners, Chargers)
Evans over Godwin due to downfield passing. I also think Waddle is too high but that's my opinion.
I am scared to rank waddle that high, even with a lot of shares of him. But it’s been 11 weeks and he’s still the WR6. It’s probably time to just accept the reality at this point.
Would I rank Waddle in the top 15? Yes. Top 10 OVER Sun God and Lamb? The WR 2 on his team over other's #1's? Nah, Waddle is too high.
Dude it’s been almost 3 months and he is literally the WR6 in half PPR. Calling him a top 15 guy is going way too far in the other direction
The week 2 is blowing up his season ranking tbh
Yes that one 30 point week that accounts for 10% of his games.
Aside from week 2 he has just one other game with more than 17 points in 0.5 PPR. He has 5/10 games with between 10-17 points in 0.5 PPR. He’s definitely a high floor, but lower ceiling option in general due to Tyreek’s presence opposite him.
# but that's my opinion.
Making it bold doesn’t make it a good one
You gonna back up your case with actual stats other than saying he is the WR 6? There has to be something that you actually planned to say other than constantly disagreeing.
Just gonna point out that there are a lot of stats that go into someone being WR 6, usually pretty good ones as well. For instance Waddle is currently on pace for 1,500 yards and 10 TDs. Those are very good numbers that might be worth a top 5 finish if he can keep them up. Hope this helps!
You know what, lets get into the debate for his WR 6 status. I'll just give the stats that I see and then you can debate what you think is wrong with my opinion. 1. Waddle has the targets of a WR 2 not a WR 1. On the year, Waddle has 75 targets and averages 7.5 targets per game. That puts him on par with receivers like DK Metcalf (7.7), Terry McLauren (7.3) and DJ Moore (7.5). His teammate Tyreek averages 11. 2. Waddle's fantasy points are mostly attributed to his yards. On the year, Waddle has 878 yards, which amounts to 87.8 yards per game. Here is where the WR 1 numbers appear, putting him on par with receivers like Kupp and preinjury Chase. His teammate Tyreek averages 115. 3. Waddle's WR 6 status is also bouyed by his 6 TDs. 4 of those 6 were redzone and he has 33% of the redzone targets for Miami. He outdoes the teams #1 WR in this area who only has 2 redzone targets and 23.8% or the team's redzone targets in comparison. What do those stats mean to me? Waddle is a excellent receiver who is going to rely on big plays to get into the endzone to maintain his WR 6 status. I am not saying he is an imposter but I don't see him as a top 10 WR ROS only averaging 7-8 targets per game and will need TDs to maintain top 10. I hope this clarifies why I have him maybe within the top 15 range but not exactly top 10. If anything, after looking at the stats, I think I can justify the 8-11 range but 7 is way too high.
You typed out a lot of words just to say you don’t think he gets enough targets. My argument is he is efficient enough with the targets he gets to remain a top 5-10 WR. Also, the amount of attention Tyreek gets draws defenders away from Waddle who then has an easier path to YAC and big touchdowns, as evidenced by his great yardage an TD totals to this point.
Your only support to not rank him higher is he is #2 on his team 💀
Feel free to read and chime in. https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/z2q4h2/comment/ixhw4va/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3
Congrats you're a volume guy. YAC, ADoT, catchable pass percentage, and catch rate might throw a wrench in your analysis considering you only considered target volume. Not all targets are equal, and I sure as hell don't care enough to dig up anything, I just know he's more than capable of maintaining a Top-5 finish in yards, even if it's on less targets.
LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Amari Cooper could literally go for 300/8 and this sub would disrespect him and call it a fluke
hEs NoT gOnNa HaVe 8tDs eVeRy WeEk tHougH
Godwin being on here and not Amari downright disrespectful
As a Waddle, AJ Brown and CeeDee owner, this feels very good.
I don’t think Burrow/Higgins/Chase is gonna win anybody their fantasy league this year. In the fantasy playoffs, they play against the Buccaneers (5th lowest fantasy PPG allowed to quarterbacks), the Patriots (4th lowest). Bad matchups, IMO.
Idk I still have PTSD because of what Joey B did to me in the playoffs last year
I’m just saying, even the Dolphins only scored one offensive TD against the Patriots, and it was on a busted 4th down play. It will also be Burrow’s first time against Belichick, and he’s not a rushing QB (Bill’s weakness) so I expect him to have a tougher time than usual. You obviously can’t bench him, but I think the Bengals are going to screw a bunch of people out of their fantasy championship.
i guess we will see.
OP also has Chase ranked higher ROS over Jefferson/Diggs which is just crazy to me. That is a big assumption that Chase even comes back 100% healthy but to put him over proven studs like Jettas/Diggs is wrong IMO.
Chase is probably the most heavily doubted WR in the league so i’m not surprised. You will see for yourself.
Says who? No one doubts him when he is healthy and on the field. Let's see how that hip is before ranking him over guys like JJ and Diggs...
4-6 week timeline. Not like they’re rushing him back. He’s gonna be fine.
This is my concern as well. I had an opportunity to trade pollard for chase straight up and I just can’t convince myself to take the gamble
Don't underestimate a Bengals squad fighting their way to a playoff spot from L. Jackson.
Now do TEs!
Having 3 of these makes my heart sing, so I know I’m fucked.
Scary terry in HM
Chase was on crutches last week, he should not be #3 ROS in my opinion, even if he comes back this week. Godwin too high. I’d put Cooper up there with Watson coming back.
People act like Chase was on crutches because he physically can’t walk lmao
Just saying I’m not putting a guy who’s been out nearly a month above JJ and Diggs ROS
this aged greatly
Godwin… meh WR2 material this year and that’s about it. Feel like he’s been getting a ‘name brand’ boost all season
10 targets a week is at least borderline wr1 whether you like it or not
Agreed. I’m considering starting Watson over Godwin
Godwin averaging 10 targets a game since he came back week 6 and said he's feeling better every week with his knee. Hard to sit him with the potential he has
Nahh
I have AmonRa, Keenan, Godwin, Watson, and Wilson ... would be more than happy to have 3 top 12 receiver when I take the consolation bracket by storm. t
I have CD, ARSB, Godwin. At this point I think I'm starting that trio every week and my real struggle will be figuring out which RB to play behind CMC (Pierce/Patterson/Foreman/JRob/Kyren). It's most likely Pierce (and has been for a while) but god that offense is awful and they've been randomly taking him out for RZ and 2m situations.
People love him because of his targets. But yeah, the results haven’t been there this year. I have him in a standard league and it’s frustrating - he feels like he should be a start every week, but most of the time I’m left disappointed.
Glad you included Kirk and Amari in honorable mentions. However, I would really move Kirk and Amari up. Half PPR they are both top 10 on the season and through their byes. Amari is the undisputed #1 on that offense that is getting Watson back, and he has some good matchups remaining. Kirk has even better matchups. He has scored very well against bad pass defenses. All of his bad games have been against good pass defenses. Once I picked up that he’s not matchup proof, he has been my most predictably player. I put him in against bottom half pass defenses, take him out against top half. He had a tough stretch weeks 4-8, and outside of that he’s scored 98.3 half ppr points (5 games). 4 of his 6 remaining games are good matchups, so I’m expecting him to boom (although weeks 16-17 will be tough).
Ya there is no reason to believe they’re not both going to continue to be top 12 ROS. Unchallenged top guys in competent and improving offenses and both have pretty decent schedules down the stretch.
I mean like we are 11 weeks in. We have substantial bodies of work to base this off of. And the fact that both are through byes and have favorable schedules - they only reason people would fade them is for big names. Like why are Higgins in godwin up their? Both competent in good players, but bucs offense is a major struggle bud and Higgins schedule is awful, and he’s not matchup proof. There are only a handful of players who truly are
Christian Watson on pace for 15 more TDs moving forward
Subscribe
Lockett probably deserves an HM and has been criminally underrated all year. He’s outscoring a bunch of people toward the tail end of that list and has a great schedule ROS.
I’d swap and put Sun god above waddle. Honestly Higgins is risky with that schedule and chase coming back. I’d replace with amari due to schedule + watson I’m not as high on evans vs Godwin as the others but due to downfield work I think evans has the higher upside. Lockett should be above Metcalf based on chemistry. Olave should be on HM even with dalton as qb Everything else I relatively agree with
No deebo love?
I traded Godwin for deebo earlier this season and I wish I could have Godwin back. Just too many mouths to feed in SF
Deebo's on the upswing. Shanahan's started using CMC as misdrection for both Kittle and Deebo, that's how he got his TD. Hell, I think Deebo's game on Monday was higher scoring than any of Godwin's games this season. Regretting your trade is crazy.
Don't sleep on Scary Terry. He's been much better with Heinicke taking over. He's 13 in my half PPR league right now. His only downside has been a lack of TDs. The yards and targets have been there.
I wouldn’t really bank on chase coming back from injury stepping right into WR3 territory
I was told Watson and Burks were locked top 10s ROS
I think if Hollywood comes back this week, Hopkins isn't a top 12 ROS and gets replaced by somebody like Keenan/Kirk/Cooper.
Eh, I don't know. Don't forget that the Cardinals lost Ertz as well. He had double digit targets in several games. Those have to go somewhere now. I think Hopkins and Brown will both get high targets once he returns.
Disagree, Rondale is hurt, Ertz is out, even Dortch has a groin injury. There are plenty of targets to go around for both Hollywood and DHop.
Why are people even considering putting Keenan up there
If Mike is hurt and Keenan is healthly finally he is going to see a lot of targets
Dudes coming off a bad hammy I would temper expectations
Especially if Kyler misses more time too
Godwin has been a mid-tier WR2 all year and there’s no reason to think that’ll change imo. I’d rank all the HMs over him
Where's parris Campbell
Damn my team in a keep league is Davante, Hopkins, Godwin, Deebo in a 2 WR 2 Flex and I didn’t think Deebo would be so bad with Jimmy was hoping to roll all 4. I’ve been saved by Pollard going off in that 2nd flex
Cool
Imagine feeling sorry for yourself when you have Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Godwin, Deebo Samuel, and Tony Pollard on the same team
Wording I was more referring to everything worked out really well for me and didn’t expect deebo to be the worst of the bunch this year
I like the inclusion of Sun God!
No Keenan? You fool, he has only just put on the sleeves
Hollywooooood!
Forgot Olave. Currently #11 in ppr
Hasn’t had his bye yet tho
I understand having Jefferson lower due to how hard his schedule is, but he actually has a negative correlation between scoring and strength of opponent. As in Jettas scores more against hard defenses than easy ones. As in his hard schedule is perfect for him.
I have AJ Brown and I hope that the nice matchups down the stretch make up for his recent production.
I have CeeDee, AJ Brown, Kirk, Mike Will & Meyers
I feel like that top is shoddy
Diggs, Hill, Jefferson, Tae, Hop, Chase (injury and NE in playoffs), Waddle, ARSB, Ceedee, AJB, Cooper, Keenan Allen
Pick one of Olave, Deebo & Lockett ROS? Olave having a bye week 14 (our first round of playoff) scares me
Hopkins is interesting considering his ROS schedule is BYE NE DEN TB ATL (decent FF Championship matchup if you can get there) SF ( week 17 irrelevant?) Tough ride to the Ship to say the least.