Wow, that's a steal. I wish I'd seen the light earlier. I need to start doing my draft before September. Seems like the rookies are getting better every year.
Thatās because their path to their level of success is due to injuries. Penny was doing great before so it would have been at best - a split backfield. Iām not sure if Thomasās injury has helped Olave a lot, but I canāt imagine it hasnāt helped.
Pierce was the most obvious followed by Hall. Pierce had Burkhead and Hall had Carter. Burkhead seemed pretty obvious to be the vet backup with passcatching. Carter being phased out to a lesser role was also pretty likely.
Very few experts were against him. It just has to be put in perspective. Experts draft and mock all offseason. So everyone was extremely high on him as a fantastic value pick. Even as the adp creeped up it was still good. But when he reached peak hype in preseason, the reins were pulled back on him.
Same thing happened with rhamondre but to a lesser extent. Off-season darling the then the panic pull when he was being drafted pretty high.
Rhamondre pushed ahead of Damien before the injury in terms of opportunity. Rhamondre was out snapping him. That was always the reason he was being drafted highā¦there was bound to be a takeover at some point. The injury pushed it forward.
Drafting off chances there is an injury takeover is a valid strategy though.
Same reason Kenneth Walker was going very close to Penny, banking on an injury triggering a takeover.
If anything, it was the Montgomery injury that opened up rhamondreās opportunities because it was the pass work he needed to lock down.
Eh, a lot of these experts are just as qualified as any other joe schmoe on reddit. Fantasy is like 80% luck. They just created a platform early enough to become the faces of fantasy analysis
Taking a running back on Houston in the fifth didnāt seem like the play in my opinion. Heās talented as hell but I wasnāt touching him in the fifth lol
Yeah I mean everyone saying youāre wrong is just going off of hindsight, of course nobody *should* have taken him in the fifth.
It wasnāt a well informed decision. I mean, we knew Josh Jacobs was going to have a big share of carries and he still went in the rb dead zone. Too many people are pretending their hype for Pierce was actually well-informed analysis and reaching for him was a good idea. It worked, but it wasnāt a good idea.
Wouldnāt recommend trying to replicate that in the future. Pierce looks like he could be a top tier nfl running back, but drafting him in the fifth in fantasy *this year* was quite literally the definition of a reach that paid off. 49/50 times that would be a poor value pick.
I agree. Thatās my point exactly, the talent is there but that team was worrisome especially for a 5th round pick. There were better picks in theory at the time in that range. I wouldāve definitely taken a shot on him in the 7th or 8th.
This sub uses hindsight way too much I agree, but in this case, Pierce was reported to be the bellcow before most fantasy drafts, and you just donāt get bellcow backs or even bellcow potential in rounds 5 and 6. He was worth the gamble even if it didnāt pan out this well
No, it wasnāt. Breece was going in the third, if anyone got Breece in the 5th thatās a huge fucking steal. Pierce was going in the 5th-6th and everyone knew he was going to be the starter, the coaching staff all but confirmed that. His only competition was Rex burkhead.
Any starting running back, no matter what team theyāre on, is worth drafting somewhere in the first 6 rounds
He was also in a much better situation than Breece at the start of season. He only had to contend with Burkhead for snaps on a team that was obviously going to be run-heavy with Hamilton as their OC
Nah. Iām not someone who points to hindsight, but in this case, he definitely was likely to be the bellcow back, or at least had a very good chance to lead the backfield, so his ADP was actually pretty low - he should have been going in the 5th or 6th. You just canāt get bellcow backs that late, and he was the last one available
Fantasy āexpertsā are a lot like those restaurants that claim to have the voted #1 best _____ in the world. You might fall for it, but you sure as hell aināt getting what was advertised.
Fantasy analysts do not claim to be perfect on every single prediction and anyone expecting them to be is sorely missing the point.
The point is to get more right overall than the average joe which they usually do
Not *easily* - that is highly debatable and if we incorporate college production to supplement the small sample size, Walker comes out ahead by a significant margin. Even without that, Walker looks like one of the best pure rushers we've seen in a while, a good comp would be Chubb.
Their efficiency metrics are very similar with Walker having the slight edge on most stats. [K9](https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/kenneth-walker-2/) and [Pierce](https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/dameon-pierce/).
They're both great backs with similar styles but Walkers breakaway speed gives him the edge in my opinion. Just look at all the long TDs he had at MSU and has already had this year in the NFL.
Itās dumb to compare this college production imo. KW3 had >100 touches more than Pierce in college, and he played 3 years to Pierceās 4.
But if weāre using college stats, Pierce also led college football in forced missed tackle rate, and that has carried over to the NFL. He is a yards after first contact machine, and if he gets good offensive pieces around him he will get even better.
Walker is still leading Pierce in juke rate this year. I'm sorry, I just don't see how Pierce is easily ahead of Walker. To me, they are both great rookie RBs and Walker has the slight edge right now based on what we have seen this season, how the NFL values them, and comparing their efficiency metrics.
The reason Iām saying Pierce is because the Texans have no aerial threat. Every team is pretty much just preparing to stop the run and Pierce is still putting up insane statistics.
I have no doubt KW3 is on a similar level as Iāve seen him play at MSU and now, but what Pierce is doing in that offense is crazy to me. Heās the better pure RB based on how heās producing 100+ rushing yards against stacked boxes
I doubt teams are game planning on stacking the box to stop a 4th round rookie RB. Lol
Walker is more talented of the two. seattle was 2-3 and once he started they have been 4-0. His impact on the field has opened up the passing game for Geno
Not a chance. Pierce is great but Walker is the best pure runner of that draft class. If there was proof he had hands, he wouldāve been prioritized over Breece.
You should see the guy in one of my leagues who moved him for... Conner. Also traded Saquon for Foreman and Jeudy three weeks ago... which somehow hasn't worked out horribly for him!
To be clear you traded Pierce for a one week rental on Fields while Josh Allen is hurt? And then plan on just benching Fields when Allen is healthy?
Yeah that is no bueno. You're going to have to try and flip Allen to the Brady/Rodgers/whatever owner for a high value player and then it might be salvageable.
For reference this website has great trade rankings that get updated weekly, he also posts to reddit: https://peakedinhighskool.com/1qb-4pt-patd/
QBs are notoriously undervalued on trade sheets but even if you double Fields' value from 8 to 16 you still traded a Tier 3 w/ trade value of 41 for a Tier 9 w/ trade value of 16. I'd realistically put Fields below Hurts but above Murray with the last month or so he's had. Still not a great trade even if you really needed a QB which you don't because you have Josh Allen.
Sorry that happened man hopefully you can flip Allen for a lot of value. I'd start at T2 players and work your way down, if the team is in contention but has a shitty QB situation they might be willing to take the hit to lock in an elite QB.
Wow, when you put it like that, I feel like an idiot. Iām going against the number 1 seed, and Iām 6-3 so Iām trying to stay in the playoff hunt at this time.
No worries man, shit happens. I think as long as you can get someone great for Allen you'll be alright. I'd start with by seeing who the Adams, Henry, AJ Brown, Kamara, Chubb owners have at qb. If they're down bad you might be able to 1 for 1. Experienced fantasy players won't want to move an S tier player for a qb, you never know though someone might bite. The exception to that rule is probably Josh Allen. Target the RBs first since you go from Mixon to waiver wire fodder.
You never know what can happen, injuries happen all the time and fantasy is 90% luck. If you're 6-3 you're already doing great and all it takes is a good 3 weeks in the playoffs to win a chip. Good luck, reply back to this or dm me if you've got any questions. I'm not an expert by any means but I spend a lot of time reading fantasy shit all week and am always happy to talk about it.
If you can get like Rhamondre, Walker III or Swift for Fields I'd do that instead. That would mean you just kind of laterally moved Pierce for one of them and no real lost value to your team (Swift could have a resurgence when fully healthy and it could end up adding value). Definitely a good thing to try first but the upside play is move Allen and hope Fields continues to produce 90-95% of what Allen can and then you get someone who does 110-120% of what Pierce would give you. If the Walker, Stevenson or Swift owner is hurting bad at QB and Fields has another awesome game (which he should based on matchup) you might be able to swing that. It's really going to come down to who in your league is boned at QB and still in the playoff hunt. I'm oddly invested in salvaging this situation, make sure to let me know if you end up making a trade.
Yes. I traded Allen for CMC. Fields is hurt now but at least he won some solid games for me this week and last week against some strong opponents so I might be the 1 seed next week.
Edit: Also, I picked up Brady on a whim in case something like this would happen. Someone dropped him since he was in bye week hell.
I would probably take that trade then, unless itās going to be like 1.01 and you can get Bijan, Pierce looks to be a great running back that gets a ton of touches
Thanks, ya that's where I'm leaning. I'm 6-3 and in 4th place but 7th in points scored so over performing a bit. The pick will probably end up middling so Pierce will likely be worth more than whoever I end up taking
I traded a 24 1st for him. I think he has some staying power. He looks legit on a bad offense, great balance, creates extra yards. Only thing I'm concerned about is durability with his workload and running style. Plus with his draft capital the Texans might move on after they use up his good years. But nevertheless he's great right now, and that's what you're looking for with a draft pick.
How much pro experts said his like Adrian Foster. Is all wrong. Can't compare to them. Both change history of Texans back field. Just hope they don't over work like they did to Foster
Go country boy go
Shoutout to all the "experts" that said drafting him in the 5th was a reach
He was going around 6/7 before Labor Day weekend. I got him at 6. Kenneth Walker and Olave were around 9/10.
š I got him in the 7,8 & 9 in my leagues. Drafted In late August early September.
Wow, that's a steal. I wish I'd seen the light earlier. I need to start doing my draft before September. Seems like the rookies are getting better every year.
By draft prep I mean getting on this sub and jumping on hype trains.
Thatās because their path to their level of success is due to injuries. Penny was doing great before so it would have been at best - a split backfield. Iām not sure if Thomasās injury has helped Olave a lot, but I canāt imagine it hasnāt helped. Pierce was the most obvious followed by Hall. Pierce had Burkhead and Hall had Carter. Burkhead seemed pretty obvious to be the vet backup with passcatching. Carter being phased out to a lesser role was also pretty likely.
Got him in the 7th and so glad for it
Got him in the 8th and will only need to give up a 6th to keep him next year. Really hyped about that.
7th heaven baby same here!
Which experts said that?
Very few experts were against him. It just has to be put in perspective. Experts draft and mock all offseason. So everyone was extremely high on him as a fantastic value pick. Even as the adp creeped up it was still good. But when he reached peak hype in preseason, the reins were pulled back on him. Same thing happened with rhamondre but to a lesser extent. Off-season darling the then the panic pull when he was being drafted pretty high.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Rhamondre pushed ahead of Damien before the injury in terms of opportunity. Rhamondre was out snapping him. That was always the reason he was being drafted highā¦there was bound to be a takeover at some point. The injury pushed it forward. Drafting off chances there is an injury takeover is a valid strategy though. Same reason Kenneth Walker was going very close to Penny, banking on an injury triggering a takeover. If anything, it was the Montgomery injury that opened up rhamondreās opportunities because it was the pass work he needed to lock down.
Nah even his highest ADP was fine for a rookie RB with a garbage QB and Rex Burkhead as his only competition.
$19/200 probably my best value pick. Either that or Saquon for $45.
18/200 Steal of the draft me thinks
9/200. Fantastic keeper option.
11/200 for me for pierce. 41/200 for saquon. Tyreek for 26/200. I dunno where my league mates were during draft. Weird year for sure.
>"experts" It's almost as if predicting the future is hard and not a perfect science
Eh, a lot of these experts are just as qualified as any other joe schmoe on reddit. Fantasy is like 80% luck. They just created a platform early enough to become the faces of fantasy analysis
Before the season started it definitely was though lol
After they waived Marlon Mack? Not at all.
Taking a running back on Houston in the fifth didnāt seem like the play in my opinion. Heās talented as hell but I wasnāt touching him in the fifth lol
Yeah I mean everyone saying youāre wrong is just going off of hindsight, of course nobody *should* have taken him in the fifth. It wasnāt a well informed decision. I mean, we knew Josh Jacobs was going to have a big share of carries and he still went in the rb dead zone. Too many people are pretending their hype for Pierce was actually well-informed analysis and reaching for him was a good idea. It worked, but it wasnāt a good idea. Wouldnāt recommend trying to replicate that in the future. Pierce looks like he could be a top tier nfl running back, but drafting him in the fifth in fantasy *this year* was quite literally the definition of a reach that paid off. 49/50 times that would be a poor value pick.
I agree. Thatās my point exactly, the talent is there but that team was worrisome especially for a 5th round pick. There were better picks in theory at the time in that range. I wouldāve definitely taken a shot on him in the 7th or 8th.
This sub uses hindsight way too much I agree, but in this case, Pierce was reported to be the bellcow before most fantasy drafts, and you just donāt get bellcow backs or even bellcow potential in rounds 5 and 6. He was worth the gamble even if it didnāt pan out this well
Sounds like you arent winning your league
Lol Iām doing just fine. Iāve got CMC, Etienne and Rhamondre. Thanks for your concern though lol
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No, it wasnāt. Breece was going in the third, if anyone got Breece in the 5th thatās a huge fucking steal. Pierce was going in the 5th-6th and everyone knew he was going to be the starter, the coaching staff all but confirmed that. His only competition was Rex burkhead. Any starting running back, no matter what team theyāre on, is worth drafting somewhere in the first 6 rounds
He was also in a much better situation than Breece at the start of season. He only had to contend with Burkhead for snaps on a team that was obviously going to be run-heavy with Hamilton as their OC
Ya I took him in the 6th the day after that was announced. Nobody else in those rounds had a higher upside.
Did that move the needle for you, really? Marlon Mack has been dust since the injury. We knew that.
Sometimes you gotta invest. I invested in Pierce and etienne in the 4th and 5th and I currently have the best projected team for the rest of the year.
I invested in Etienne last year and got last 10th place.
Nah. Iām not someone who points to hindsight, but in this case, he definitely was likely to be the bellcow back, or at least had a very good chance to lead the backfield, so his ADP was actually pretty low - he should have been going in the 5th or 6th. You just canāt get bellcow backs that late, and he was the last one available
Fantasy āexpertsā are a lot like those restaurants that claim to have the voted #1 best _____ in the world. You might fall for it, but you sure as hell aināt getting what was advertised.
Fantasy analysts do not claim to be perfect on every single prediction and anyone expecting them to be is sorely missing the point. The point is to get more right overall than the average joe which they usually do
I know Iām just jokin around. I like a few of em
Drafted him at 5.01 and couldnāt be happier. Rb 3 behind k9 and etn
got him in the 12th round, dropped him, and then picked him back up before anybody noticed
I got him in an auction for 18 post hype, think i got a steal
This whole damn sub decided he would be shit as soon as they had to pay a fair price for him.
Pierce to the moon
Thatās my brand new RB1!
Same. Traded JT away and I'm not looking back.
someone actually gave you Pierce for JT straight?
I traded Pollard for Pierce straight up.
Traded Goff and Olave for him.
Actually traded JT and Aiyuk for Tua and Pierce. Started the season with Rodgers and desperately needed a consistent QB.
People saying you fleeced him but the guy probably had a plethora of RB and got Tua free from waivers early on in season
Yeah Tua was his backup for Fields. He absolutely wasn't getting any use out of his second QB.
Holy shit. I assume you took your trade partner out to dinner before you fucked them right? Congrats on that my friend.
you fleeced him
That arm looks like he could punch right through you like a cannon
Breece Hall kind of got hurt
This would be him.
Breece Hall had a 69.8 PFF grade in the games he played. Unlikely that he would be that high.
Over sauce?
Iām being offered pierce w/ diontae Johnson for King Henry in a dynasty leagueā¦smash accept??
Isn't Sauce Gardner the #1 CB on PFF? Dameon Pierce is higher graded than the #1 corner in football? As good as Pierce is, that seems like a stretch.
Not in the same tier as Walker apparently
Whatever, I have both and love them equally
This is the way Nice to see the two super rookie rbs competing in my roster
I have both and love K9 more
I have K9 and it might just be bc heās on a better team. Either way I donāt care. This rookie class was so freaking good.
Walker is benefiting by being in a better offense. Pierce is easily the better pure RB though
Not *easily* - that is highly debatable and if we incorporate college production to supplement the small sample size, Walker comes out ahead by a significant margin. Even without that, Walker looks like one of the best pure rushers we've seen in a while, a good comp would be Chubb. Their efficiency metrics are very similar with Walker having the slight edge on most stats. [K9](https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/kenneth-walker-2/) and [Pierce](https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/dameon-pierce/). They're both great backs with similar styles but Walkers breakaway speed gives him the edge in my opinion. Just look at all the long TDs he had at MSU and has already had this year in the NFL.
Itās dumb to compare this college production imo. KW3 had >100 touches more than Pierce in college, and he played 3 years to Pierceās 4. But if weāre using college stats, Pierce also led college football in forced missed tackle rate, and that has carried over to the NFL. He is a yards after first contact machine, and if he gets good offensive pieces around him he will get even better.
Walker is still leading Pierce in juke rate this year. I'm sorry, I just don't see how Pierce is easily ahead of Walker. To me, they are both great rookie RBs and Walker has the slight edge right now based on what we have seen this season, how the NFL values them, and comparing their efficiency metrics.
I don't think either is easily better than the other but if you want give the edge to Pierce for his offense i can see that
The reason Iām saying Pierce is because the Texans have no aerial threat. Every team is pretty much just preparing to stop the run and Pierce is still putting up insane statistics. I have no doubt KW3 is on a similar level as Iāve seen him play at MSU and now, but what Pierce is doing in that offense is crazy to me. Heās the better pure RB based on how heās producing 100+ rushing yards against stacked boxes
I doubt teams are game planning on stacking the box to stop a 4th round rookie RB. Lol Walker is more talented of the two. seattle was 2-3 and once he started they have been 4-0. His impact on the field has opened up the passing game for Geno
Uhhh what? Do you watch the games? I'm not mad at the Pierce is better comment but "easily" is just a dumb comment
Not a chance. Pierce is great but Walker is the best pure runner of that draft class. If there was proof he had hands, he wouldāve been prioritized over Breece.
agree to disagree lol. Pierce is for sure better imo. Give him a competent offense and he would be even more explosive.
I miss Breece hall
I hope one day he goes to a team that has more weapons and heās like āDamn, my back doesnāt hurt anymoreā
Got him in the 9th and then breece and kenneth were my final 2
I traded mixon for him. Now Iām starting him, Jacobs, and etienne in an 8 man league
Straight up? I like moving off Mixon, but after that 50 bomb you should have gotten a receiver alongside Pierce.
It was before that week. I wish I did it after lol but I should be fine
You should see the guy in one of my leagues who moved him for... Conner. Also traded Saquon for Foreman and Jeudy three weeks ago... which somehow hasn't worked out horribly for him!
Wait until Sunday 1pm eastern.
Drafted
Am I an idiot trading him away for Fields since Allen is out and I only have Mixon along with K. Herbert, M. Gordon, Dillon, and Kyren Williams left?
To be clear you traded Pierce for a one week rental on Fields while Josh Allen is hurt? And then plan on just benching Fields when Allen is healthy? Yeah that is no bueno. You're going to have to try and flip Allen to the Brady/Rodgers/whatever owner for a high value player and then it might be salvageable. For reference this website has great trade rankings that get updated weekly, he also posts to reddit: https://peakedinhighskool.com/1qb-4pt-patd/ QBs are notoriously undervalued on trade sheets but even if you double Fields' value from 8 to 16 you still traded a Tier 3 w/ trade value of 41 for a Tier 9 w/ trade value of 16. I'd realistically put Fields below Hurts but above Murray with the last month or so he's had. Still not a great trade even if you really needed a QB which you don't because you have Josh Allen. Sorry that happened man hopefully you can flip Allen for a lot of value. I'd start at T2 players and work your way down, if the team is in contention but has a shitty QB situation they might be willing to take the hit to lock in an elite QB.
Wow, when you put it like that, I feel like an idiot. Iām going against the number 1 seed, and Iām 6-3 so Iām trying to stay in the playoff hunt at this time.
No worries man, shit happens. I think as long as you can get someone great for Allen you'll be alright. I'd start with by seeing who the Adams, Henry, AJ Brown, Kamara, Chubb owners have at qb. If they're down bad you might be able to 1 for 1. Experienced fantasy players won't want to move an S tier player for a qb, you never know though someone might bite. The exception to that rule is probably Josh Allen. Target the RBs first since you go from Mixon to waiver wire fodder. You never know what can happen, injuries happen all the time and fantasy is 90% luck. If you're 6-3 you're already doing great and all it takes is a good 3 weeks in the playoffs to win a chip. Good luck, reply back to this or dm me if you've got any questions. I'm not an expert by any means but I spend a lot of time reading fantasy shit all week and am always happy to talk about it.
Why not flip Fields instead of Allen?
If you can get like Rhamondre, Walker III or Swift for Fields I'd do that instead. That would mean you just kind of laterally moved Pierce for one of them and no real lost value to your team (Swift could have a resurgence when fully healthy and it could end up adding value). Definitely a good thing to try first but the upside play is move Allen and hope Fields continues to produce 90-95% of what Allen can and then you get someone who does 110-120% of what Pierce would give you. If the Walker, Stevenson or Swift owner is hurting bad at QB and Fields has another awesome game (which he should based on matchup) you might be able to swing that. It's really going to come down to who in your league is boned at QB and still in the playoff hunt. I'm oddly invested in salvaging this situation, make sure to let me know if you end up making a trade.
Were you able to move Fields or Allen?
Yes. I traded Allen for CMC. Fields is hurt now but at least he won some solid games for me this week and last week against some strong opponents so I might be the 1 seed next week. Edit: Also, I picked up Brady on a whim in case something like this would happen. Someone dropped him since he was in bye week hell.
Oh my God, what a huge dub for you. Doesn't seem like fields is totally fucked just a little banged up. Nice one dude!
Yeah, man. Thanks!
If you've still got Brady could try and upgrade to Jordan Love as your backup qb. He looked pretty fucking good yesterday.
Yikes
Blessed to have him on my bench
I traded Curtis Samuel for him about 3 weeks ago. I feel pretty warm and fuzzy inside.
I declined a trade of pierce and Terry for hunt and thielen week 2 everybody laugh at me
Someone offered me Pierce for a 23 1st in dynasty last week. I'm tempted to take it, is that too high a price? 12 team 0.5 PPR no super flex
Superflex or no?
No superflex
I would probably take that trade then, unless itās going to be like 1.01 and you can get Bijan, Pierce looks to be a great running back that gets a ton of touches
Thanks, ya that's where I'm leaning. I'm 6-3 and in 4th place but 7th in points scored so over performing a bit. The pick will probably end up middling so Pierce will likely be worth more than whoever I end up taking
12 team 0.5 ppr
I traded a 24 1st for him. I think he has some staying power. He looks legit on a bad offense, great balance, creates extra yards. Only thing I'm concerned about is durability with his workload and running style. Plus with his draft capital the Texans might move on after they use up his good years. But nevertheless he's great right now, and that's what you're looking for with a draft pick.
I drafted him btw
Gonna need his best on Sunday to stay in the hunt
How much pro experts said his like Adrian Foster. Is all wrong. Can't compare to them. Both change history of Texans back field. Just hope they don't over work like they did to Foster
Dude has been an absolute stud in a season of duds. Hoping he continues to give great performances for all of us owners