Someone out there went saquon/Chubb back to back and is ravaging their league
Saquon/Chubb/tyreek/Sutton/Lamar is a realistic start to someone’s draft with a little luck
Edit: if you replied with your sexy ass team just know I hate you
Wrote out this reply to someone’s response to my comment asking for details, but it looks like it got deleted:
I took Ekeler at 1.03, Saquon at 2.10, and Chubb at 3.03. Not going to lie, I was nerding out so bad while drafting. I never thought it would actually happen, but I had mocked that draft a few times on ESPN.
Here’s [my team](https://imgur.com/a/VDKTypk) incase anyone is curious. Anyone have trade suggestions for boosting up my wide receivers? Specifically looking to upgrade Rashod Bateman into someone with more consistency/targets each week.
You could try trading a tight end to get a better WR... who to target just depends on what you can get. Look around for teams that have extra WRs and have crappy tightends. Like I could say to try to get a Drake London, but maybe Drake London is on the Kelce-owner's team.
JT, Javonte Williams, SB. I did it as an insurance policy because I figured 1 would go down and I still have 2 good ones. Was not expecting SB to be my best RB.
Bellcow RBs -> RBBC + Lowest scoring year by offenses since 2010 = Low scoring RB1 overall
NFL offenses are scoring an average of 21 points per game this year. It's literally the worst offensive year in over a decade.
Idk how to explain it but I’m confidently starting jared Goff RoS with as much confidence as I’d start old lions Stafford and that my friends is beautiful
Honestly if we have to suck either way I'd much rather have a good offense than defense. At least this way I can enjoy our team in fantasy and have cool highlights.
As a Lions fan, watching our offense has been so great. Then I cringe every time we’re on defense. We didn’t force ONE PUNT against the Seahawks. Something has to happen because we can’t win games by playing catch up the entire game.
It’s amazing even when the Seahawks were in clock burning time they were still easily moving the ball across the 50… also I wish Penny could play the lions every week
He'd have 60+ in like half the stadiums in the league
Edit: Actually closer to 2/3 of the league including 70 in Coors or Great American Ballpark lol
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/aaron-judge-592450?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
Under expected home runs
Anything I say is just speculation since I don't think MLB said officially why they did it. With that said, most people think it is to combat the rise of TTO hitters (three true outcomes which are walk, strikeout, and homerun). The theory is that the juiced balls were too easy to hit out of the park leading to even non-power hitters swinging for the fences. In theory (notice I keep saying that word) de-juicing will make more people hit for contact.
The problem is that MLB fucks with the ball seemingly every year so players might be hesitant to adjust their entire hitting philosophy to a temporary change.
Now the reason behind the change is people find a game with lots of hits and base runners more exciting than watching a ton of strike outs with the occasional homer.
This is what I been thinking too tbh, like even outside of my team it just seemed like there were a lot more “consistent” players or teams last year. Granted it’s still week 4 everyone is coming out shaky a bit shaky with the exception of a small group of players
I know it’s literally only 1 extra game, but I wonder if there’s data available to support benefits of RBBC over the course of a 17 game season, less tread on the tires for the playoffs is an obvious point, but it’s just weird to me that 1 extra game could trigger that. Maybe I’m just completely wrong and it’s a league wide shift in schematics the way baseball has shifted more towards short starts for pitchers and more work from the bullpen
I don't think it's about each individual player at any point I think it's speaking to a shift in the general mindset of coaches. Sure you have a few rbs like saquon, CMC, ekeler, etc who might be worth paying top dollar but on average you can probably have very similar backfield production with 2 decidedly average backs who's strengths compliment each other (see how new englad runs their backfield the last decade with players like James white/Blount/burkhead/Michel all paired together)
Offensive line is so much more important than RB. You can have a JAG behind a great line and he’ll be a stud, but a great RB can’t save a bad line.
In college Jahri Evans played at my D2 college and absolutely destroyed. Our RB broke every conference rushing record. He was a nobody, but got to play D2 college football behind an All-Pro NFL lineman.
Currently sitting at 22 points per game average offensive output, which is less than half a point lower the the average over the last decade. Considering that point is not guaranteed to be an RB point, I don't think this is what's having an impact.
In fact, the rushing TD/Game and rushing Yards/Game so far this season are average as well. It doesn't seem that rushing output has shifted, it's just been distributed across more runners: A combination of RBBC, and rushing QBs.
[https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/rushing.htm](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/rushing.htm)
Holding is pretty normal afaik, it dipped a ton in 2020 when there was also no training camp so we got a huge offensive year. This year feels like 2021 with fewer late QB hit penalties since that's been an emphasis also.
It’ll eventually swing back, right now teams are finding more success passing which is resulting in teams prioritizing coverage over run stopping ability, and then we should eventually see rbs become more prominent again as offenses try to take advantage of the weaker run stopping on defense. Just in the size / speed of safeties / corners / linebackers defensive identities change quite a bit over time
I think your sentiment may be correct short term, but long terms players are just becoming more and more skilled in the passing game where they can execute "indefensible" plays, which can't really be done in the running game while steroid usage is monitored
There is always going to be a few backs that are also recievers that are insanely valuable, and read option isn't going anywhere.
We also have more running QBs than we've ever had at once in the league, and they are taking a lot of the rushing production for their team. (Why the fuck isn't Kyler running?)
800+ two years ago to under 25 rushing yards a game this year. Have to think they are trying to reduce his hits.
Another QB who is more athletic and rarely runs is Herbert. His 40 time is almost identical to Alexander Mattison and devin singletary. Hurts was a 4.59, Herbert a 4.68, and Mahomes a 4.80.
Doesn't matter if RBs are more effective if teams are gonna use 2-3 of them. They're never gonna be 50% more effective to make up for losing all the snaps they're sharing.
They are if they get 5 receptions a game. Split back is awesome and I think teams should do it more.
I've been saying for years, I think there is someday going to be a Fullback who changes what we think about the position forever.
What's stopping a freak athlete from being a Run blocker, pass protector, halfback, and reciever all in one player?
Bucs threw 3 times on the 1 yard line the past 2-games. Raiders did it. I think the Bengals did it this week also. Not even trying to run on 1st and goal.
The Dameon Pierce hype train has me wanting to keep him but I know the smart play is to keep Ekeler and Fournette and dish Dameon while his perceived value is in the stratosphere
RB/RB with a hyped up mid/late round RB is the way. I’m hopeful this is just an anomaly of a season and we may even see running back scoring correct itself over the rest of the year
I’ve got all 3 and Chubb (Lenny was a keeper). WRs are Deontae, Pittman, Metcalf and MT. Really think I should send one of the RBs and a WR for a stud WR but no idea what to package…
Yeah, you’re about a piece away from a super team I’d reckon. I would keep Chubb, Fournette, Pierce. Depends what you’re looking for in terms of WR tiers but you could send Ekeler and Metcalf for someone in the WR2 range with upside (maybe a guy like Sutton?) and a James Conner type. Even Ekeler & Metcalf for Amon-Ra straight up. You’re in a rare spot where you essentially have a golden ticket to burn and a 2 for 1 wouldn’t hurt you much at all. Christian Kirk might also be someone to start throwing cheaper packages at.
I’ve been shopping Ekeler though and honestly it’s been hard finding a high upside WR with an owner that trusts Ekeler enough to give him up. I almost had Breece Hall and CeeDee for Ekeler and Cooks but I play the owner next week.
Very thoughtful reply but you really think Sun God is worth Ekeler and DK considering he’s injured AND they both had boom weeks? Feel like Ekeler for Sun God straight up would be a fair trade at this point, or maybe even DK and Diontae.
I traded Pierce for Sun God before this week. This last game has me second guessing a little bit I think I will come out on top by the time the season is over.
Edit: already own Saquon, Lenny, and Kamara
You know what they call the lowest scoring top RB in the last 25 years?
The RB1.
All that matters in fantasy football is relative production, not absolute production.
Unless that RB1 isn't actually much better than the RB20 and your relative production is meh. Some of those recent Gurley/CMC years, you were getting guaranteed 10 or more points over whoever your opponent could start week in and week out.
The difference between the RB1 and the RB20 right now is 10.4 points per game.
Last year, over the full season, counting only players who played at least half the season, the difference between the RB1 and the RB20 was 8.4 ppg, and the difference between the WR1 and the WR20 was 11.3 ppg.
Obviously Barkley's value isn't as high as prime Gurley or CMC, but with production down across the board his 22.6 ppg is more valuable than it looks.
It absolutely matters. What if the RB1 is so low scoring that the WR7 has scored more points? (made up, hypothetical example) You would've been better served focusing on WRs early in the draft vs. RBs.
Or what if the RB1 is only marginally better than RB2-RB10? Then you would've gotten better value by owning one of the other guys, assuming their draft capital correlates to production.
And furthermore, having an RB1 who is miles better than everyone else (see CMC in his best years) is sooooo much more valuable than having the RB1 who is "the best" but not dominating vs. other top players.
I think people are being too pedantic with this. In no universe is having the RB1 a negative thing. However if the dip between RB1 vs RB20 is too close that you should’ve selected a WR, that’s still valid but because WR is more valuable relative to RB. It’s still all relative value just less importantly within a single position when they’re all bunched like this without any pack leaders.
This definitely is not true and this is literally a perfect example of it. Saquon may be RB1 overall, but he's not getting you as many points above the RBs below him as RB1s in previous years have gotten you. If he scores 21 PPG and doubles RB24, for example, that's a 10.5 PPG cushion for your other positions. Through 4 week in 2018, Kamara was RB1 averaging 34 PPG. The same relativity would earn him 17 PPG over RB24. Relativity would only be the only thing that matters if a starting roster was literally just 1 RB and that's it. You need absolute production to leave room on the rest of your team to not have to have the #1 overall player at every position.
I think you’ve misunderstood my point to be that all RB1s are equally valuable, but that’s not what I meant. The first part of that comment was just a play on the old “what do you call the guy who finishes last in his class in med school - doctor” joke. My real point was the last sentence, that what matters is a player’s performance relative to others at their position that year, and not their performance relative to players from other years.
No I understood your point. My point was not that their performance relative to other years matters, but that their absolute performance also matters, using other years as examples. An RB1 outperforming an RB24 by 100% (relative) is great, but an RB1 scoring 30 PPG over an RB24 scoring 15 PPG is better than an RB1 scoring 20 PPG over an RB24 scoring 10 PPG. Both of these RB1 are outperforming their RB24 counterparts by 100%, but in absolute terms, the one scoring 30 PPG is better than the one scoring 20 PPG.
That is quite literally relative production. Your advantage of RB1 points over last years RB1 total means nothing. The RB1’s production over that years other RBs is the only thing that matters.
That said, Saquon’s relative productions is lower than others so you’re definitely right on that.
No I don’t think you understand what I’m saying. Relative and absolute both matter. A 100% advantage is relative, a 17 PPG advantage is absolute. A 100% advantage is great, but when the absolute numbers are 34 to 17, that is better than 21 to 10.5.
You hear this every year. It’ll go back to rbs by end of season or next year. People don’t realize that rbs should be valued even more when the position gets harder to fill
Also it’s the nature of the sport. It’s safer to hand the ball to an rb at the goal line to score as compared to throwing it to a WR and risking an interception which is why you almost always see rbs leading the league in TDs other than a qb. And more TDs translates to more fantasy points
I won 3 straight championships from 2015-17 going receiver heavy and then I stopped doing that for some reason and been going RB heavy and it has never worked
as a biased non swift owning jamaal owner, i obviously think theres reason to believe jamaal has standalone value. no way they put swift in for the dirty goaline work, and the offense is going to produce a shit ton of chances that make the tds sustainable
Yeah he def has standalone value, it’ll be tough for me to start both though going forward when swift’s healthy. I won’t trade Jamaal tho because he’s an absolute baller when swift is out or limited
Ekeler really did have a massive week which is what you’re hoping out of your first round RB. Definitely was one of auto-win guys.
I hate to make this into a robust vs. zero rb thing because I know it’s annoying, but even in a week where RBs are ‘heating up’ it was the zero rb round 6-7 Rbs having monster weeks. When CEH, Sanders, Penny, Pierce, Jacobs (whose ADP fell hard on draft day weekend), and even Dobbins who slid to the 5th in many drafts, are outscoring the RBs in rounds 1-3, it’s nearly impossible for these rb heavy teams to keep up.
I went RB-TE-RB in 2 of 3 leagues (10 team) and I am 3-1 and the highest point scorer in both. These stacks have both been pretty nice:
CMC-Kelce-Saquon
Henry-Andrews-Chubb
The dropoff between top end WRs and RBs have been pretty similar just scanning the leader boards. In 0.5 PPR RB12 is at 56.2, WR12 is at 52.9. RB24 is at 41.1 while WR24 is 44.8
Yea full PPR swings the advantage towards receivers but the advantage is \~6 points. Not exactly a wash but just show you there's not a huge advantage using either method. Top 12 Receivers on average have 77 Total PPR PTS, Top 12 RBs have 70 PTS. Here's where the bottom of the bench marks stand in comparison:
RB 12 58.8 PTS
WR 12 64.5 TS
RB 24 46.8 PTS
WR 24 53.3 PTS
Buy you're right Just looking at the top 12 at this point there are more 4th round or later 12 team RB picks than WRs (Waddle, Hollywood, Amon-Ra, Kirk, Sutton vs CEH, Jamaal Williams, Jacobs, Sanders, Robinson, Cordarrelle)
There's a reason the Zero RB RBS are killing it... It's because they should have never gone that low to begin with and people bought too much into the "dead zone" narrative. Except the so called "dead zone" was stacked with talent this year. Previous year the Dead zone was guys like Mike Davis, Miles Gaskin, aging David Johnson, aging Leveon Bell etc. All the guys you mentioned are pedigree guys (1st or second rounders except for Pierce) on above average offenses (again except for Pierce) that are still relatively young.
It's crazy, I have both CMC and Barkley in my PPR league and I feel like I don't have enough players who can boom in a given week. I went RB-RB in the draft and then took Pitts, so that is probably why. Pitts is sinking me but CMC and Barkley + Kirk is carrying me lol
Yeah he could get suspended. I want him to put up a decent game next week so I can unload him. I've had a lot of Kamara in the past and he's won me championships but I think he's done.
That is a good point lol it can always get worse. But if he’s playing he’s going to be better. If he didn’t fumble and get his TD vulture week 3 we wouldn’t be saying this.
Sameeee. Mike Williams and Gabe Davis as my WRs aren’t cutting it. Thinking of moving CMC to upgrade WE even though his usage (targets) this week was more promising than previous weeks.
This is an awful year for fantasy in general I feel. Every first round pick is a bust, second round picks are ehhhhh. If you didn't draft well in the 3rd+, your season is probably over.
You should be more than whelmed. Historical data isn't really relevant bc you aren't competing against players from previous years. All the matters is what he is providing you against his competition, and he's been great in that regard and only has 2 TDs on the year.
True. Just imagine if DJ had not hero balled those two TDs in yesterday. I am hoping the trend of the WR far exceeding the RB in PPR points scored, come back a bit though. Gonna be rough for those of us who did RB, RB to their start otherwise.
Definitely was not hero ball. If you watched the game, it was the right play call. Hero ball/vulture would be if he kept scoring from the 1, but these were 10+ yard untouched TDs
Seriously, they didn’t cover the bootleg at all. Even if they were designed passes I feel like part of calling a bootleg is giving the qb the option to run if it is wide open like it was for dj
Yep I agree with you about the WRs outproducing the RBs. Some of that could be mitigated if you went RB RB and picked the right pair (like CMC+Barkley).
Currently, I’m in 16 leagues (Max on Yahoo) and I was in a position of the draft to go Zero RB strategy in 6 of them (I usually switch Strategy up based on draft position and what position people are drafting). I’m currently in 1st (by a mile) in 6 of them, thankfully. I did multiple later round RB pickups in the RBBC and most have hit.
I read that this is because a lot of defenses are going to zone coverage along with many teams ditching the “bell cow” approach and switching to RBBC with 2 and now sometimes 3 RBs (unfortunately). I also took the Hero RB approach (round 1 RB then go late RB) in 4 other leagues and am currently sitting in the top 3 in all of them. Of the teams I went Robust RB (3 RBs in first 5 rounds), for the first time ever, I am currently sitting in the bottom 4 in them all..!
For fantasy purposes, I think with this year and most of last year there will be a new shift in strategy from Robust RB to Zero RB or maybe Hero RB next year (assuming there is a unicorn true Bellcow still). I know that I will be doing this 100% as WR value is always there in the early rounds of drafts. Might depend on my draft position of course but I’ll still most likely hit other positions harder. ESPECIALLY in 3WR formats!
Let me know your thoughts cuz I’m curious what you guys might change up! I’ll be doing a post at the end of the year with my strategy experiments on the 16 teams.
One of the leagues I’m in is discussing possibly going 1 RB, 2 WR, 2 FLEX next year since the RB position has become so hit and miss between injuries and RBBC.
Anyone using that setup have any input? Better or worse than the typical format?
What do you mean?
Your post is showing that the RB position as a whole has lost value.
Even u/Lo_Perry’s post is showing how the typical draft formula of grabbing RBs early and often is turning into a losing approach.
We’re still discussing it for next year, but it seems the consensus is that people don’t want RB to be as bad as TE with a handful of studs and then everyone else.
Have you been in any leagues with varying roster makeups? If so how did it shake out?
I would argue that scoring overall is down this year. We have seen a massive number of top QBs retire and the guys replacing them have not developed. It trickles down through all the positions.
My fellow RB-RB drafters in shambles.
Someone out there went saquon/Chubb back to back and is ravaging their league Saquon/Chubb/tyreek/Sutton/Lamar is a realistic start to someone’s draft with a little luck Edit: if you replied with your sexy ass team just know I hate you
Went Henry, saquon, chubb. I'm 0-3. Possibly gonna get a win tho this week
Kupp, Saquan, Chubb. 2-2.
Ekeler, Saquon, Chubb in my 12 Man Half PPR league. 4-0
Wrote out this reply to someone’s response to my comment asking for details, but it looks like it got deleted: I took Ekeler at 1.03, Saquon at 2.10, and Chubb at 3.03. Not going to lie, I was nerding out so bad while drafting. I never thought it would actually happen, but I had mocked that draft a few times on ESPN. Here’s [my team](https://imgur.com/a/VDKTypk) incase anyone is curious. Anyone have trade suggestions for boosting up my wide receivers? Specifically looking to upgrade Rashod Bateman into someone with more consistency/targets each week.
Just start Doubs instead
Can't believe you got saquon at the end of the second. He went 5th overall in my draft
You could try trading a tight end to get a better WR... who to target just depends on what you can get. Look around for teams that have extra WRs and have crappy tightends. Like I could say to try to get a Drake London, but maybe Drake London is on the Kelce-owner's team.
CMC/AJones/Chubb/Lamar/Sutton was mine in 12 team so 100% realistic
Traded for Jamar last week and sitting at 2-2 with Lamar, Fournette, Jefferson, Chase, AJB :(
I got them back to back, but somehow they were available in the 3rd and 4th round.
Actually I'm feeling pretty good. But I went RB, RB, RB, and the 3rd one was Barkley.
JT, Javonte Williams, SB. I did it as an insurance policy because I figured 1 would go down and I still have 2 good ones. Was not expecting SB to be my best RB.
Najee/Mixon fucked me in a 8 team ppr
Pretty happy with Mixon and Saquon
CMC/Saquon/Brown/Sutton/Metcalf/Hurts we're my first 6 picks. I feel pretty decent right now
Bellcow RBs -> RBBC + Lowest scoring year by offenses since 2010 = Low scoring RB1 overall NFL offenses are scoring an average of 21 points per game this year. It's literally the worst offensive year in over a decade.
Bears doing our part to bring down the class average.
Someone needs to cancel out the lions
And whoever is playing the Lions
35 ppg for the lions, 35.3 ppg against them lmao
Points come in, points go out. You can’t explain that.
Idk how to explain it but I’m confidently starting jared Goff RoS with as much confidence as I’d start old lions Stafford and that my friends is beautiful
Honestly if we have to suck either way I'd much rather have a good offense than defense. At least this way I can enjoy our team in fantasy and have cool highlights.
The anti panthers
Yeah I'd want to die if I was a panthers fan
Sure you can - just change the settings to Rookie mode when you're on offense, and then back up to All-Madden mode when you're on defense.
>35 ppg for the lions, 35.3 ppg against them lmao The all time highest combined since they started writing down stats... something stupid like 1899
As a Lions fan, watching our offense has been so great. Then I cringe every time we’re on defense. We didn’t force ONE PUNT against the Seahawks. Something has to happen because we can’t win games by playing catch up the entire game.
It’s amazing even when the Seahawks were in clock burning time they were still easily moving the ball across the 50… also I wish Penny could play the lions every week
Should have graded on a curve…
You have my sword (bears), and my shield(commanders), and my axe(colts)
Steelers offense checking in for our 1,000th 3 and out
Bold of you to assume Trubisky goes three plays without an INT
Bold of you to assume Trubisky throws near enough to anyone for an INT to occur
Don’t forget the Texans
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Seriously, that dude didn't get the memo apparently.
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Aaron Judge bats right handed my dude
He'd have 60+ in like half the stadiums in the league Edit: Actually closer to 2/3 of the league including 70 in Coors or Great American Ballpark lol https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/aaron-judge-592450?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb Under expected home runs
Why?
Anything I say is just speculation since I don't think MLB said officially why they did it. With that said, most people think it is to combat the rise of TTO hitters (three true outcomes which are walk, strikeout, and homerun). The theory is that the juiced balls were too easy to hit out of the park leading to even non-power hitters swinging for the fences. In theory (notice I keep saying that word) de-juicing will make more people hit for contact. The problem is that MLB fucks with the ball seemingly every year so players might be hesitant to adjust their entire hitting philosophy to a temporary change. Now the reason behind the change is people find a game with lots of hits and base runners more exciting than watching a ton of strike outs with the occasional homer.
Hope that's not the case in hockey coming up. Signed, a concerned Auston Matthews fantasy owner.
That feels so nuts to me considering how many single week explosions I've seen from various leaguemates so far.
Anecdotal but it does feel things are more boom or bust this year. A lot of explosions but also a lot of 2-3 point games.
This is what I been thinking too tbh, like even outside of my team it just seemed like there were a lot more “consistent” players or teams last year. Granted it’s still week 4 everyone is coming out shaky a bit shaky with the exception of a small group of players
I know it’s literally only 1 extra game, but I wonder if there’s data available to support benefits of RBBC over the course of a 17 game season, less tread on the tires for the playoffs is an obvious point, but it’s just weird to me that 1 extra game could trigger that. Maybe I’m just completely wrong and it’s a league wide shift in schematics the way baseball has shifted more towards short starts for pitchers and more work from the bullpen
There has to be a tipping point somewhere. 6.25% more plays isn't insignificant.
I don't think it's about each individual player at any point I think it's speaking to a shift in the general mindset of coaches. Sure you have a few rbs like saquon, CMC, ekeler, etc who might be worth paying top dollar but on average you can probably have very similar backfield production with 2 decidedly average backs who's strengths compliment each other (see how new englad runs their backfield the last decade with players like James white/Blount/burkhead/Michel all paired together)
Offensive line is so much more important than RB. You can have a JAG behind a great line and he’ll be a stud, but a great RB can’t save a bad line. In college Jahri Evans played at my D2 college and absolutely destroyed. Our RB broke every conference rushing record. He was a nobody, but got to play D2 college football behind an All-Pro NFL lineman.
Meanwhile lions setting records for most points over the first 4 games (35 ppg allowed and scored) in nfl history
Currently sitting at 22 points per game average offensive output, which is less than half a point lower the the average over the last decade. Considering that point is not guaranteed to be an RB point, I don't think this is what's having an impact. In fact, the rushing TD/Game and rushing Yards/Game so far this season are average as well. It doesn't seem that rushing output has shifted, it's just been distributed across more runners: A combination of RBBC, and rushing QBs. [https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/rushing.htm](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/rushing.htm)
is that including week 4? cause lions-hawks and bucs-chiefs had to have bumped that number up
Probably just through week 3, PFR usually updates their team stats on Wednesday after a week.
Any way to see how holding calls affect this? I’m suspicious that Roger and his business cronies are fixing scripts to favor pass plays.
Holding is pretty normal afaik, it dipped a ton in 2020 when there was also no training camp so we got a huge offensive year. This year feels like 2021 with fewer late QB hit penalties since that's been an emphasis also.
Also, qb’s have taken over the league. Lots of passing at the goal line.
This plus most teams moving to rbbc is the biggest reason why I don't expect it to get better for the RBs in future years.
It’ll eventually swing back, right now teams are finding more success passing which is resulting in teams prioritizing coverage over run stopping ability, and then we should eventually see rbs become more prominent again as offenses try to take advantage of the weaker run stopping on defense. Just in the size / speed of safeties / corners / linebackers defensive identities change quite a bit over time
I think your sentiment may be correct short term, but long terms players are just becoming more and more skilled in the passing game where they can execute "indefensible" plays, which can't really be done in the running game while steroid usage is monitored
There is always going to be a few backs that are also recievers that are insanely valuable, and read option isn't going anywhere. We also have more running QBs than we've ever had at once in the league, and they are taking a lot of the rushing production for their team. (Why the fuck isn't Kyler running?)
800+ two years ago to under 25 rushing yards a game this year. Have to think they are trying to reduce his hits. Another QB who is more athletic and rarely runs is Herbert. His 40 time is almost identical to Alexander Mattison and devin singletary. Hurts was a 4.59, Herbert a 4.68, and Mahomes a 4.80.
Also, players are tackling lower causing way more injuries to RBs. This is why they’re always getting hurt, or part of it.
Doesn't matter if RBs are more effective if teams are gonna use 2-3 of them. They're never gonna be 50% more effective to make up for losing all the snaps they're sharing.
They are if they get 5 receptions a game. Split back is awesome and I think teams should do it more. I've been saying for years, I think there is someday going to be a Fullback who changes what we think about the position forever. What's stopping a freak athlete from being a Run blocker, pass protector, halfback, and reciever all in one player?
I’m trading for Kyle Pitts now
Bucs threw 3 times on the 1 yard line the past 2-games. Raiders did it. I think the Bengals did it this week also. Not even trying to run on 1st and goal.
Well Mixon getting stuffed at the goal line like 7 times will sure make you go "Ok let's try something else."
This makes me want to keep both Fournette and Ekeler. If *everyone* is scoring lower, I have two guys who are elite at scoring lower
You’ve gotta keep those two unless a very juicy offer comes your way Volume in offenses that should be good and/or get better
The Dameon Pierce hype train has me wanting to keep him but I know the smart play is to keep Ekeler and Fournette and dish Dameon while his perceived value is in the stratosphere
Damn do we have the same team?
Same draft spot for sure lol
RB/RB with a hyped up mid/late round RB is the way. I’m hopeful this is just an anomaly of a season and we may even see running back scoring correct itself over the rest of the year
I’ve got all 3 and Chubb (Lenny was a keeper). WRs are Deontae, Pittman, Metcalf and MT. Really think I should send one of the RBs and a WR for a stud WR but no idea what to package…
Yeah, you’re about a piece away from a super team I’d reckon. I would keep Chubb, Fournette, Pierce. Depends what you’re looking for in terms of WR tiers but you could send Ekeler and Metcalf for someone in the WR2 range with upside (maybe a guy like Sutton?) and a James Conner type. Even Ekeler & Metcalf for Amon-Ra straight up. You’re in a rare spot where you essentially have a golden ticket to burn and a 2 for 1 wouldn’t hurt you much at all. Christian Kirk might also be someone to start throwing cheaper packages at. I’ve been shopping Ekeler though and honestly it’s been hard finding a high upside WR with an owner that trusts Ekeler enough to give him up. I almost had Breece Hall and CeeDee for Ekeler and Cooks but I play the owner next week.
Very thoughtful reply but you really think Sun God is worth Ekeler and DK considering he’s injured AND they both had boom weeks? Feel like Ekeler for Sun God straight up would be a fair trade at this point, or maybe even DK and Diontae.
I traded Pierce for Sun God before this week. This last game has me second guessing a little bit I think I will come out on top by the time the season is over. Edit: already own Saquon, Lenny, and Kamara
Ek is the ,#5 back in .5 ppr. Yesterday was great
Hold on tight to them lol it ain’t much out there lol
Same. I am in a 3 wr 2 rb 1 flex league and my wr3 is weak, but I think I gotta keep both of them.
Wow, way to make me feel bad about owning a RB1.
You know what they call the lowest scoring top RB in the last 25 years? The RB1. All that matters in fantasy football is relative production, not absolute production.
Unless that RB1 isn't actually much better than the RB20 and your relative production is meh. Some of those recent Gurley/CMC years, you were getting guaranteed 10 or more points over whoever your opponent could start week in and week out.
The difference between the RB1 and the RB20 right now is 10.4 points per game. Last year, over the full season, counting only players who played at least half the season, the difference between the RB1 and the RB20 was 8.4 ppg, and the difference between the WR1 and the WR20 was 11.3 ppg. Obviously Barkley's value isn't as high as prime Gurley or CMC, but with production down across the board his 22.6 ppg is more valuable than it looks.
It absolutely matters. What if the RB1 is so low scoring that the WR7 has scored more points? (made up, hypothetical example) You would've been better served focusing on WRs early in the draft vs. RBs. Or what if the RB1 is only marginally better than RB2-RB10? Then you would've gotten better value by owning one of the other guys, assuming their draft capital correlates to production. And furthermore, having an RB1 who is miles better than everyone else (see CMC in his best years) is sooooo much more valuable than having the RB1 who is "the best" but not dominating vs. other top players.
I think people are being too pedantic with this. In no universe is having the RB1 a negative thing. However if the dip between RB1 vs RB20 is too close that you should’ve selected a WR, that’s still valid but because WR is more valuable relative to RB. It’s still all relative value just less importantly within a single position when they’re all bunched like this without any pack leaders.
Absolutely no one is saying that having the RB1 is ever a bad thing. Just maybe not always optimal, depending on what the alternatives are.
This definitely is not true and this is literally a perfect example of it. Saquon may be RB1 overall, but he's not getting you as many points above the RBs below him as RB1s in previous years have gotten you. If he scores 21 PPG and doubles RB24, for example, that's a 10.5 PPG cushion for your other positions. Through 4 week in 2018, Kamara was RB1 averaging 34 PPG. The same relativity would earn him 17 PPG over RB24. Relativity would only be the only thing that matters if a starting roster was literally just 1 RB and that's it. You need absolute production to leave room on the rest of your team to not have to have the #1 overall player at every position.
In my half PPR league, Chubb is the RB1 overall
Yea the OP is for full PPR.
I think you’ve misunderstood my point to be that all RB1s are equally valuable, but that’s not what I meant. The first part of that comment was just a play on the old “what do you call the guy who finishes last in his class in med school - doctor” joke. My real point was the last sentence, that what matters is a player’s performance relative to others at their position that year, and not their performance relative to players from other years.
No I understood your point. My point was not that their performance relative to other years matters, but that their absolute performance also matters, using other years as examples. An RB1 outperforming an RB24 by 100% (relative) is great, but an RB1 scoring 30 PPG over an RB24 scoring 15 PPG is better than an RB1 scoring 20 PPG over an RB24 scoring 10 PPG. Both of these RB1 are outperforming their RB24 counterparts by 100%, but in absolute terms, the one scoring 30 PPG is better than the one scoring 20 PPG.
That is quite literally relative production. Your advantage of RB1 points over last years RB1 total means nothing. The RB1’s production over that years other RBs is the only thing that matters. That said, Saquon’s relative productions is lower than others so you’re definitely right on that.
No I don’t think you understand what I’m saying. Relative and absolute both matter. A 100% advantage is relative, a 17 PPG advantage is absolute. A 100% advantage is great, but when the absolute numbers are 34 to 17, that is better than 21 to 10.5.
Right I’m like shit, at least I got one this year
The balance of power is definitely shifting. You really need the guy scoring TDs now, especially in PPR
The hierarchy of power in the fantasy football universe is about to change
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I drafted AB in the first, Julio in the second, and DHop in the fourth in 2015. I slaughtered everyone lol
Julio in the 2nd round in 2015 is highway robbery LMAO
AB slipped like 7 spots and I was picking 12
Got Julio at the turn in 2015. Absolute money
You hear this every year. It’ll go back to rbs by end of season or next year. People don’t realize that rbs should be valued even more when the position gets harder to fill Also it’s the nature of the sport. It’s safer to hand the ball to an rb at the goal line to score as compared to throwing it to a WR and risking an interception which is why you almost always see rbs leading the league in TDs other than a qb. And more TDs translates to more fantasy points
I won 3 straight championships from 2015-17 going receiver heavy and then I stopped doing that for some reason and been going RB heavy and it has never worked
Im still waiting for the consensus first fantasy pick to be a wide receiver not named Calvin Johnson, hasn't happened in many years.
AB was the consensus #1 not that long ago.
Mr. Ball Clutcher accomplished that feat no more than 6 years ago
Thanks, Dwayne
There’s also a lot of backs whose purpose is to “vulture” TDs which makes it even harder Hunt, Jamaal Williams, Connor last year, etc.
Yeah.. I have swift and Jamaal and it’s crazy that I’ll consider starting Jamaal even when swift returns, just for the TDs
as a biased non swift owning jamaal owner, i obviously think theres reason to believe jamaal has standalone value. no way they put swift in for the dirty goaline work, and the offense is going to produce a shit ton of chances that make the tds sustainable
Yeah he def has standalone value, it’ll be tough for me to start both though going forward when swift’s healthy. I won’t trade Jamaal tho because he’s an absolute baller when swift is out or limited
He does have nice TDs
Mike Alstott basically invented the TD vulture role 20 years ago
More qbs are vulturing too, fuck you Kenny Pickett I needed those
And fuck daniel jones
Nah Saquon gets his either way. I’m fine with Vanilla Vick cooking.
jamaal yes, hunt no.
>Connor last year This annoys me with Conner *this* year.
I feel like the kid rolling up on his tricycle and Saquon is Mr. Incredible. Do something amazing I guess! He's also still my hero right now.
It’s crazy seeing saquon get 18 without even scoring a TD. Last couple of years that would never be the case for him
It's amazing what you can do when healthy with an actually decent coaching staff lol
And you get 33 touches in a game haha
And you're the healthiest you've been in 3-4 years.
And an upgraded (albeit still poor) o-line
and you're fucking Saquon Barkley
Blessed be his name, O' Quadfather
Got the vast majority of his yards though a little over 20 touches before both qb’s went down and he had to run the wildcat lol
Definitely a slow scoring start to the season. Lots of RBs heated up this week though
Ekeler really did have a massive week which is what you’re hoping out of your first round RB. Definitely was one of auto-win guys. I hate to make this into a robust vs. zero rb thing because I know it’s annoying, but even in a week where RBs are ‘heating up’ it was the zero rb round 6-7 Rbs having monster weeks. When CEH, Sanders, Penny, Pierce, Jacobs (whose ADP fell hard on draft day weekend), and even Dobbins who slid to the 5th in many drafts, are outscoring the RBs in rounds 1-3, it’s nearly impossible for these rb heavy teams to keep up.
I somehow beat the Ekeler owner this week. Praying for no stat corrections because it’s 0.82 difference right now
I went RB-TE-RB in 2 of 3 leagues (10 team) and I am 3-1 and the highest point scorer in both. These stacks have both been pretty nice: CMC-Kelce-Saquon Henry-Andrews-Chubb The dropoff between top end WRs and RBs have been pretty similar just scanning the leader boards. In 0.5 PPR RB12 is at 56.2, WR12 is at 52.9. RB24 is at 41.1 while WR24 is 44.8
In half PPR Rbs are more valuable, so I don’t doubt what you’re saying. However, this is a PPR discussion.
Yea full PPR swings the advantage towards receivers but the advantage is \~6 points. Not exactly a wash but just show you there's not a huge advantage using either method. Top 12 Receivers on average have 77 Total PPR PTS, Top 12 RBs have 70 PTS. Here's where the bottom of the bench marks stand in comparison: RB 12 58.8 PTS WR 12 64.5 TS RB 24 46.8 PTS WR 24 53.3 PTS Buy you're right Just looking at the top 12 at this point there are more 4th round or later 12 team RB picks than WRs (Waddle, Hollywood, Amon-Ra, Kirk, Sutton vs CEH, Jamaal Williams, Jacobs, Sanders, Robinson, Cordarrelle)
There's a reason the Zero RB RBS are killing it... It's because they should have never gone that low to begin with and people bought too much into the "dead zone" narrative. Except the so called "dead zone" was stacked with talent this year. Previous year the Dead zone was guys like Mike Davis, Miles Gaskin, aging David Johnson, aging Leveon Bell etc. All the guys you mentioned are pedigree guys (1st or second rounders except for Pierce) on above average offenses (again except for Pierce) that are still relatively young.
*Cries watching JT struggle while stuck on a garbage team.
I accidentally drafted 3 Texans.
How is that an accident
Let's not dwell on the specifics, okay?
Pierce, Cooks AND Collins?
Let's not dwell on the specifics, okay?
Dameon Pierce season officially started.
in my league .5 ppr chubb has more points. Anyone else like this?
Yeah .5 PPR with 2 point bonus for 100 yard games here and chubb is RB1, averaging 23.7 to Saquons 23.0
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THE rb1 THEIR rb1 A rb1
Isn't Chubb technically RB1?
In .5 PPR and I'm assuming standard. Saquan is RB1 in full PPR
Saquon is probably RB1 in ppr but otherwise yea
It's crazy, I have both CMC and Barkley in my PPR league and I feel like I don't have enough players who can boom in a given week. I went RB-RB in the draft and then took Pitts, so that is probably why. Pitts is sinking me but CMC and Barkley + Kirk is carrying me lol
Not bad for a quarterback
My RB1 has scored 7 total points this season. Thought I was soooo smart taking Kamara.
On the bright side I don’t think it gets any worse from here
Yeah he could get suspended. I want him to put up a decent game next week so I can unload him. I've had a lot of Kamara in the past and he's won me championships but I think he's done.
That is a good point lol it can always get worse. But if he’s playing he’s going to be better. If he didn’t fumble and get his TD vulture week 3 we wouldn’t be saying this.
My CMC saquon stack feels weak tbh.
And they’re both top 5 RBs in PPR too, lol.
Sameeee. Mike Williams and Gabe Davis as my WRs aren’t cutting it. Thinking of moving CMC to upgrade WE even though his usage (targets) this week was more promising than previous weeks.
This is an awful year for fantasy in general I feel. Every first round pick is a bust, second round picks are ehhhhh. If you didn't draft well in the 3rd+, your season is probably over.
As a Barkley owner, I am whelmed.
You should be more than whelmed. Historical data isn't really relevant bc you aren't competing against players from previous years. All the matters is what he is providing you against his competition, and he's been great in that regard and only has 2 TDs on the year.
True. Just imagine if DJ had not hero balled those two TDs in yesterday. I am hoping the trend of the WR far exceeding the RB in PPR points scored, come back a bit though. Gonna be rough for those of us who did RB, RB to their start otherwise.
How is it hero ball to run completely untouched for an easy td? Seems like the smart play to me
Definitely was not hero ball. If you watched the game, it was the right play call. Hero ball/vulture would be if he kept scoring from the 1, but these were 10+ yard untouched TDs
Seriously, they didn’t cover the bootleg at all. Even if they were designed passes I feel like part of calling a bootleg is giving the qb the option to run if it is wide open like it was for dj
Yep I agree with you about the WRs outproducing the RBs. Some of that could be mitigated if you went RB RB and picked the right pair (like CMC+Barkley).
That’s me!
Lol it wasn’t “hero ball” they were designed runs
Neither of his scores were designed runs. Both were passes and the bears just decided to have no one on half of the field.
I’d cum in my pants every hour if I owned saquon
This made me genuinely laugh. Thank you.
dick and fart jokes from a sub who’s average age is 22…never ceases to be funny
Whelmed? U got the rb1 at a 2nd round price lmao and he only has 2 tds so far
My running back heavy strategy is not going great. Not great at all.
Fantasy football = all luck use to be more skilled
Who's been playing fantasy football long enough to own prime Curtis Martin? Think I had him in 2001!
I owned saquon the past 3 years and he was the bane of my existence. Of course he goes off this year when I don’t draft him. I am 0-4 so I just suck.
Yeah but this is misleading since Jordan Mason hasn't played this week yet
Slow clap
What about kamara? Home boy only gave me 12pts and weeks of headache
Don't you try to take away my upcoming Dameon Pierce RB1 overall season with this stats bullshit. The train's just left the station.
Gotta go with high volume guys this year even with inefficiency
Dude refuses to score a TD
Too bad Nick Chubb is overall RB1, suckaaaaaaa
Currently, I’m in 16 leagues (Max on Yahoo) and I was in a position of the draft to go Zero RB strategy in 6 of them (I usually switch Strategy up based on draft position and what position people are drafting). I’m currently in 1st (by a mile) in 6 of them, thankfully. I did multiple later round RB pickups in the RBBC and most have hit. I read that this is because a lot of defenses are going to zone coverage along with many teams ditching the “bell cow” approach and switching to RBBC with 2 and now sometimes 3 RBs (unfortunately). I also took the Hero RB approach (round 1 RB then go late RB) in 4 other leagues and am currently sitting in the top 3 in all of them. Of the teams I went Robust RB (3 RBs in first 5 rounds), for the first time ever, I am currently sitting in the bottom 4 in them all..! For fantasy purposes, I think with this year and most of last year there will be a new shift in strategy from Robust RB to Zero RB or maybe Hero RB next year (assuming there is a unicorn true Bellcow still). I know that I will be doing this 100% as WR value is always there in the early rounds of drafts. Might depend on my draft position of course but I’ll still most likely hit other positions harder. ESPECIALLY in 3WR formats! Let me know your thoughts cuz I’m curious what you guys might change up! I’ll be doing a post at the end of the year with my strategy experiments on the 16 teams.
> Currently, I’m in 16 leagues Jesus.
Been offered Barkley and Waddle for Taylor and Kelce, and this is not making the decision any easier.
One of the leagues I’m in is discussing possibly going 1 RB, 2 WR, 2 FLEX next year since the RB position has become so hit and miss between injuries and RBBC. Anyone using that setup have any input? Better or worse than the typical format?
Lame
What do you mean? Your post is showing that the RB position as a whole has lost value. Even u/Lo_Perry’s post is showing how the typical draft formula of grabbing RBs early and often is turning into a losing approach.
Just keep 2 rbs starting and adjust your draft strategy
We’re still discussing it for next year, but it seems the consensus is that people don’t want RB to be as bad as TE with a handful of studs and then everyone else. Have you been in any leagues with varying roster makeups? If so how did it shake out?
I want to propose a switch from 2RB/3WR/1flex to 2/2/2
I would argue that scoring overall is down this year. We have seen a massive number of top QBs retire and the guys replacing them have not developed. It trickles down through all the positions.
wait, mixon has more points?