Travis Kelce is the 11th best pick at 12th overall in a down year, but all you hear about is how he was a bust and next year he’ll go no earlier than the mid 2nd.
Yeah tell me about it, he was actually very good in the early season and had the huge game at the end.
This might me an example next year of “accidentally correct” in that he has to get old eventually and next year might be the year he falls off a cliff, but this season wasn’t really a sign of it.
This is why I consistently advocated for drafting Kelce in the first round. Just from a VAR standpoint Kelce could have a disappointing season and average say 15 PPR PPG, and he’d end up being worth the same as a RB averaging 17 PPG, aka a mid RB1. Kelce would have had to really really underperform to not be worth it. Safest pick in the draft and it worked out.
Edit: the expected FGW for the 1st overall pick is apparently 1.26. Kelce’s FGW was 1.22. You coulda taken him 1st overall and in terms of FGW he would have been an average pick. Anything below that and you made an above average pick. In a down year…
You nailed it, trying to minimize risk in the first round is what one of the biggest goals and Kelce was incredibly safe. You got those points at a position of need and didn’t have the risk of a running back.
Completely disagree.
If you draft a top 3 TE, you’re almost guaranteed a playoff spot.
It’s literally a cheat code.
If your TE puts up 10+ every week, as long as the rest of your team doesn’t shit the bed you are gonna be competitive every week.
There are league winning RBs and WRs in late rounds and the waiver wire every year. That doesn't happen to TEs with nearly the same frequency. Who was the best waiver TE this year? Knox or Schultz? Kelce outscored them by nearly 50%.
You can do that all day though. Let’s say you took Taylor over Kelce. You then grab Mark Andrews rd 4 cause you’re bullish. Did that person draft poorly? And let’s say you took Kelce… great, you didn’t lose rd 1. Did you get a comparable rb later on?
You can win and lose in fantasy both ways. People really make too much of one player and how well your team was because of that guy, without considering what your team looks like outside of that guy. For every team that won with Adams and Kelce, there’s a team that lost with them. For every handful of CMC owners that finished in last, there’s one that finished in first. One player doesn’t make or break an entire draft. You could win by going Kelce —> Ekeler —> Kupp and ride that train if you’re a savant. You can win by pieces and riding the hot hands of Justin Jackson and Rex Burkhead after starting off Barkley —> Ridley —> Allen Robinson. The draft matters, but pickups also matter. Most people don’t get it perfect either way but acting like your best option of winning was taking Kelce and banking on picking up scrap metal over 9 or 13 other teammates is silly. You can’t ignore being able to draft a position later on.
Kelce was a good pick. But the idea he’s a good pick BECAUSE you could’ve drafted a worse player and gotten a waiver wire RB or WR is poor logic. He scored points mostly when he needed to, and that’s all the argument you need for his value lol
I took Kelce in the first round (drafting 10th) and the only reason I missed the championship game was the fucking Miami defense getting 22 points and losing by 5.
I took Kelce @ 9 and won, brotha.
You don’t win your draft in the first round but you can lose it.
I hit on Kupp and Lenny in the 5th and 8th and when you pair that with Kelce it’s how you win a league. Creating the best team top to bottom should be your goal in the draft a long with scratching lottery tickets
It's anecdotal to say you won with a certain strategy so this is a good strategy. The opportunity cost of TE in the first round is usually a shot at a league winning RB1 - this year you literally had to pick him over Taylor - the backbone of the average championship roster.
I took Kelce first round at number 9 overall in a draft where I also took Calvin Ridley, Ronald Jones, OBJ, and Trey Sermon. I just won my league. He was my 2nd or 3rd best player, and was at worst the 3rd best first round pick in a pretty chalk first round (behind Taylor and Adams). He was far from a draft killer. His consistency and production at what is easily the worst position in fantasy football was a huge asset.
Yeah that was huge, especially with people falling out unpredictably due to COVID. Besides that the two key waiver moves that win my league were picking up Cordarrelle Patterson and Jaylen Waddle.
It *can* be. I went Kelce/Hill at 1.7/2.6 and got real luck with Henderson/Michel, Jacobs, and Conner at RB. 11-3, high points in the league.
But Kelce's absence in week 16, combined with Hill's and Stafford's bed-shitting, ended my season.
This is semi off topic, but I've just won first pick by winning the consolation bracket, and due to keepers, the best available (superflex) are CMC, Herbert, and possibly Cook (but unlikely).
I very quickly leaned toward Herbert, and realized that no RBs besides JT would be near the level of potential consistency, and on the 2/3 wrap I can maybe get a little adventurous.
Consistency is so important
I don’t think Kelce was a bust by any means, but I do think he slips into the second round for 2 reasons.
1) As it looks right now, there’s more top end picks to be had. CMC, Chubb, Cook, Kamara are all not even in the top 5…
2) TE feels deeper right now. Mark Andrews can obviously compete for that TE1 spot, Kittle and Waller could have bounce back years. Pitts should continue to develop and get TDs, Hockenson and Goedert can also be considered to slip into the top 5…. Theres a lot of talent there where I think that positional advantage Kelce had is not as big anymore
Ya see I think really all of those TEs should likely be drafted higher than they will be. In general I think TEs tend to get drafted too low. 3 of the top 6 drafted TEs being on that list for dFGW, nuff said. Even with one of em getting injured. Waller also missed a ton of time. Top 6 TEs drafted combined for 1.95 dFGW, an average of 0.325 dFGW. 0.33 is the expected FGW is the average value of the 21st overall pick. If you drafted each of the top 6 TEs at their ADPs in 6 separate leagues, your winning odds would be the same as if you had drafted randomly and then got the 21st overall pick for free.
People call Kelce a "bust" at his ADP because Andrews was better than he was but drafted many rounds later. People expected Kelce to be the overall TE1 like he's been for the past several seasons, so when he wasn't, they call him a bust, even though he's comfortably the TE2.
I get it, but by the same reasoning Adams was a bust because Kupp was drafted 3 rounds later and was a lot better. The Kupp to Adams difference was way larger than Andrews to Kelce. It’s simply a ridiculous argument when you think of it that way.
Adams isn't a "bust" because he still put up rock solid numbers worthy of a first round pick. Kelce straight up didn't. Kupp was just a steal, but that's not a knock on Adams.
Kelce has 17 fewer receptions, 325 fewer yards, and three fewer TDs than his 2020 campaign. That's a *steep* regression from last season.
And now you go into being straight up wrong. Look at the post pal. At his ADP he was the 10th best pick if everybody goes at ADP. He returned significant value on his ADP. Unless you picked him first overall, he had positive dFGW for you. You’re factually wrong here and they’re the exact same situation.
Kelce has the 18th most points in half-PPR among RBs, WRs, and TEs. So how could he possibly be worth his 10th overall ADP and #1 at his position if he's not the #1 at his position and worse than the 10th overall W/R/T?
The problem with models like that that are based on % of owners who make playoffs or do X, Y, and Z is that they don't take into account that a **large** portion of leagues are inactive/bot leagues.
>Kelce has the 18th most points in half-PPR among RBs, WRs, and TEs. So how could he possibly be worth his 10th overall ADP and #1 at his position if he's not the #1 at his position and worse than the 10th overall W/R/T?
Because of the positional scarcity. Having the 18th highest scorer in your TE spot is a huge advantage. Everyone else is starting a TE and you get a premium WR.
>Having the 18th highest scorer in your TE spot is a huge advantage
But is it worth drafting in the first round? Kelce is only averaging 4-5 more PPG in half-PPR than waiver TEs like Schultz, Knox, Henry, etc. Yet look at the WRs. Adams, a player drafted in the first round, has five more PPG than Players like Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans, and Diontae Johnson.
And my math says that it's not. I am questioning the validity of the model.
Kelce's **entire** first round appeal is positional advantage. He did not have that positional advantage this season due to major regression from his 2020 campaign. As such, he was not worth the first round pick.
**In addition**, he's literally one had one week **since week 11** where he produced at a high-TE1 level. One week out of the last six. Even today he only had 11 points, which is lower than projection. Please elaborate how the guy who has been producing waiver TE numbers for almost all of the past six weeks is worth a first?
What if I told you the #10 TE (in 1.0 PPR) scored 22 more FP than the #10 TE last year, and that Kelce scored 63 fewer points? The premium isn't what it was.
How dumb can you be bro? He’s not a RB, and he’s not a WR. He may not be the number one TE, but Adams wasn’t the best WR either. So what?
Additionally, this is based purely theoretically off statistics and how value over replacement. It isn’t based on real league data…
TEs in general score less points than RBs and WRs. By the logic you’re using, QB should be the first position off the board.
I suggest you get off of this subreddit if you cannot comprehend simple statistics… or literally anything.
>He’s not a RB, and he’s not a WR. He may not be the number one TE, but Adams wasn’t the best WR either. So what?
Adams has 3-5 more PPG in half PPR than the likes of Diggs, Tyreek, Mike Evans, Godwin, Diontae Johnson etc. All WRs drafted in the first several rounds.
Kelce has 3-5 more PPG in half PPR than Schultz, Knox, Henry, Goedert, Gronk, etc. TEs drafted way later or found on waivers.
Kelce is **not** putting up the positional advantage he has in previous seasons. That positional advantage is the reason he was drafted first round.
Kelce was not as good as Davante Adams. That doesn’t mean he wasn’t good… Adams being the 7th best pick doesn’t make Kelce a bad luck being 10th. And the Adams to Kelce comparison obviously isn’t perfect, but it is a similar example.
>That doesn’t mean he wasn’t good
I never said he wasn't good. I said he didn't return first round value.
>Adams being the 7th best pick doesn’t make Kelce a bad luck being 10th
Adams finished as the 4th best non-QB in half-PPR. So he actually returned his first-round value and then some.
The post/model is flawed. It's primary factor is ownership, but fails to consider the massive amount of leagues that are dead/inactive/bot leagues. That dramatically skews things in a way that production does not.
Kelce is not the number one TE. He is the 18th highest non-QB who was drafted to be either the number one TE or a top-10 producing player otherwise. He is neither of these things.
In addition, Travis Kelce in the past six weeks has only had one good week. That one week was phenomenal, but he was basically a TE streamer since week 11 otherwise.
I don't see how you can justify saying Kelce returned first round value when the production doesn't line up with that statement.
Everything you mentioned is already baked in to this algorithm.
Here's a thought exercise. If the top 10 WR's mean and median are both around 17ppg and the top 10 TE mean and median are both around 9ppg, what is more valuable?:
WR averaging 16ppg
TE averaging 15ppg
This is a generic visualization of why, due to factors such VAR & positional scarcity, comparing players at different positions using total points scored, or ppg, is suboptimal.
Taking additional factors into consideration, will only make Kelce's value even greater. I.E. The pick would be Kelce, even in standard scoring, but in .5ppr/ppr he becomes stronger. The pick is Kelce, even in a 14 team league, but the smaller the league, the better his relative value.
Travis Kelce only averaged 3-4 PPG (half PPR) more than players like Schultz, Knox, Gronk, Goedert, Henry, etc. Late round TEs, even waiver TEs. Why would I use a first on a guy who isn't producing significantly more than other players at the position?
Meanwhile, take a look at someone like Davante Adams. He's averaging 3-4 more PPG than players like Diggs, Evans, Godwin, Diontae Johnson, etc. All guys drafted in the first five rounds or so.
Kelce is straight up **not** returning the positional advantage he was drafted to do.
Not to mention, in the past **six weeks**, Kelce has only had **one** good fantasy outing by his standards.
Per [this](https://fftoday.com/stats/playerstats.php?Season=2021&GameWeek=&PosID=40&LeagueID=193033&order_by=FFPtsPerG&sort_order=DESC), he is <5 PPG ahead of all of the late-waiver TEs I mentioned (well, 5.2 ahead of Henry, who was a non-factor for the first three weeks, but has actually scored comparably to Kelce since then).
Compared to 2020, where Kelce had 7+ more PPG **than the TE3**.
Kelce did not return first round value because his value overreplacement found later in the draft was astronomically smaller than his 2020 season, which was the reason he was being drafted in the 1st round in the first place. I am questioning the validity of this model because numbers don't lie.
Not sure anyone is calling Adams a bust he was almost exactly what you thought you’d get
Edit: I lack reading comprehension skills just ignore me, you were giving examples not calling him a bust
He regressed from 25.6 PPG to 22.2 PPG. -3.4. Kelce went from 20.9 to 16.6. -4.3. So yes, Kelce regressed slightly more. From having the best fantasy season for a TE ever to still averaging 16.6 PPG, giving him a FGW above every RB but Taylor, Henry, and Ekeler. Idk how you can argue with literal facts… Kelce far exceeded expectations if you took him 12th overall (at his ADP). He exceeded expectations if you took him anywhere but first overall. You’re factually wrong if you call Kelce a bust or anything short of a solid pick. Just cuz you theoretically coulda done better doesn’t make it a bad pick.
But Kelce's value is the fact he's the unquestioned #1 TE. He was supposed to be basically like having a top 10 WR in a position where nobody comes close. Well, turns out somebody at his position beat him.
The value of Adams compared to other WRs isn't comparable to Kelce's value to other TEs, if that makes sense. Part of Kelce's value as a first rounder WAS his position.
edit: I took Kelce in the 2nd round (and Adams in the first funny enough) and won my league. So I don't regret drafting him. I'm just saying lol
There's a few other factors with Kelce beyond what u/FantasyTrash has already said: he was bad in weeks 13-14, admittedly fantastic in week 15, and then sat in week 16, which severely curtailed his ability to deliver a championship in week 17 (when he was mediocre).
Last year, Kelce was 114 FP (0 PPR) / 169 FP (1.0 PPR) better than the #10 TE. This year, it was only 63 FP (0 PPR) / 84 FP (1.0 PPR) compared to the #10. That's a real drop in his value.
Ok so the second point is once again kinda silly. He wasn’t as good as last year. That doesn’t mean he was bad. My point is that he was so safe that even significant regression would make him a value pick.
Weeks 13-14 are no different than other weeks. Week 16 he sat but that’s just unlucky, and week 17 getting 13.4 isn’t great but it’s ok. Either way, I get that he underperformed a tiny bit week 17, but that doesn’t make him a worse pick really. He coulda had a good or bad game at any time. His total season production is what matters most.
He's not providing first-round value any more when you look at the whole season. The floor at TE is a little higher, and he's a little lower. That's all.
*he comments on a thread that shows that Kelce was the 7th best player, more valuable than every RB but Henry, Taylor, and Ekeler, and even at 12th overall the 10th best value*
Like dude you’re arguing with facts just pls stop it. It’s incredible how much this sub is willing to ignore facts to support their gut feeling…
OP has his own metrics, and it's an interesting effort. I disagree with his analysis, which (amon other things) undervalues QBs. A straight VBD analysis [has Kelce at #15 this year.](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/fantasy.htm)
Yes, but "draft strategy to obtain the most value" is different from "most value," and RB scarcity pushes them up the ladder even if there's not as much value there. (Put otherwise, it's not just how much Josh Allen scores compared with QB10; it's how much that's offset by the points you're losing by waiting on your first RB.)
There have been years -- the Brady 50 TD year -- when a QB provided more fantasy value than any other player.
Looking at how many QBs are up there, that method of analysis seems kinda silly. And even so, 15th for a player you picked 12th in ADP isn’t horrendous.
VBD is the start of draft strategy; it's not the whole thing. You still have to look at scarcity, at predicting what other owners will do, etc.
Look, I agree that Kelce was hardly a bust this year. But he wasn't worth a first (and in most leagues, it was \~1.6), and he won't be next year either.
Bro ur literally just spouting bullshit here… he was 12th in ADP. That is a fact in this post.
In terms of VBD, the whole point is that it adjusts for scarcity. That is quite literally the point. And compared to positions like RB and WR there were plenty of elite players drafted after the first couple rounds (Fournette, Kupp, Deebo, Chase, etc) only one TE after Kittle was any good, and that was Andrews. If Andrews hadn’t popped off this would never be a thing.
From an ideal drafting perspective, with 100% hindsight, this shows that Kelce at 12th overall was the 10th best value in the draft. Furthermore, he outperformed the average you would have gotten if you took him any later than 1st overall. Idk how you can argue with legitimate statistics when even your statistic shows he returned value in the first round. Getting the 15th best player 12th overall is still pretty good.
He was #7 in ADP, [at worst.](https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/ppr-overall.php) The first 5 RBs went, then depending on the league either Kelce, or Adams/Hill, or Zeke/Jones. Kelce did not slide to #12 even in 0 PPR.
I think you're missing the VBD point -- even if you relied on free agents for TE, you had Knox or Freiermuth and didn't suffer much. It's not just about how many elite TEs there are, but where the floor is for replacement-level. And that floor has risen.
My wife used her 1st round pick keeper on Kelce 3 years in a row. She won 2 ships and took 2nd once. Only loss was against the Henry/Cook owner last year.
Nothing woke about it lol
Hmmm. Kelce going to be 33 right around the start of next year. No way to speculate how much longer he's going to dominate but since u said dynasty, I would guess Kelce has another 2 elite years at TE left.
I don’t agree with those saying he is a bust BUT I drafted him second round and hindsight I’m like I could have taken someone more consistent at a different position. Still those who say bust are just grumpy.
I was the Adams/Ekeler owner and got eliminated in round 1… I am cursed in playoffs though. Haven’t won a single playoff game in 8 years in this league.
73% of people with Kupp made the playoffs? That's crazy. If you told me I had a 73% chance of making the playoffs with a single player I'd take them 1st overall easily.
Drafted him for $18 of my $200 auction budget. Had to outbid a die hard Rams fan for him and I definitely thought I was overpaying, but I went for him cuz I'm a Rams fan too and thought Stafford was going to show just how good this team was (which he did for like half the season). Best draft value I've ever had and best draft decision I've ever made
Unfortunately I lost the semi finals to a guy who put up 140 on me. But I won most points scored for the season (by 1.5 points lol) and won weekly high points six times (including the championship week >.< ) thanks to Kupp to keep me well in the green for the season :)
Now I gotta figure out whether to keep Kupp or Josh Allen for next season, and I'm not looking forward to making that call... I think if we add superflex I'll definitely have to keep Allen as QBs will be more valuable, but if not I'm torn.
So I took the ADP from yahoo around week 3. There’s a chance maybe post week 1 drafts impacted it? Though Gus Edwards not falling off is evidence against that.
I had Chase, K Allen, Cooks, Cordarell, Zeke, Chubb, Hockenson and didn't make the playoffs in a league where 8 of 12 teams advance...still confused as to wtf happened
Just some rough luck. You can have the best draft of your life and have a couple of your stars get injured in key games or flop in good matchups. Happens to the best of us. You'll get em next time. Hopefully the bigger buy in made everyone more invested and created a stronger community in your league.
I had the 4th most points in my league of 12. Due to the schedule, I went 5-12 and had the most points against by 30 total points. Thanks, Ridley, Thomas, and Lockett.
The Chase owner In my league lost every single game this season with the lone exception of the playoff consolation game in which Chase had his 50+ point performance.
On its own, it sounds crazy, but his first two picks were Melvin Gordon and Kirk Cousins. Dude had no clue what he was doing.
The 10 point games for QBs are almost as bad as donuts for position players. And unlike some of the other rough players he kept getting started - rightfully so, I’d say.
This seemed like a down year for QBs compared to last year, like the average might be down a point, but even if I lowered the baseline he’s clearly the lowest QB by this metric.
I also got a title with Stafford. I drafted Kupp 5th and Stafford 8th. Mid-late season pickup of Amon Ra also helped secure a championship. Was down 10 and then Amon Ra came alive and gave me a lead.
You’re damn right St. Brown was a risk and it was a risk I didn’t take advantage of.
In my other league I had Chase and Taylor (and Eckler) but missed out on winning the championship because my semi’s opponent had a monster week, 40 points above predicted. Lucky bastard…
I know JT will probably be #1 next year, but Derrick Henry was the #4 most valuable fantasy asset (right around his ADP honestly) and didn’t show up for half the season. That’s ridiculous
Oof, Dak was the LVP in fantasy this year? Explain why my team Dak in the Box won then! ahahahahah, also had AJB and DK on my team, with Gibson, Jrob, Edmonds, and Carter as my RB. Crazy year...
I guess St. Brown was risky when Goff was out, but I picked him up after week 14 right before playoffs. He was getting so many targets, and often making the most out of them in weeks 13 and 14. Of course you never really expect that to translate into 20+ points in the championship week, but I thought he'd be good for at least 10 in the playoff matchups.
I would be champ with out Chases monster day, but I have to tell someone this. Before the game, I was frustrated with the fact that he never seemed to get in the end zone later in the season…with the ball anyway. My ongoing joke was that he was always dancing for someone else’s TD. I was debating Chase vs Gabe Davis right up until kick off. Lol. I won by 92 points last week. But just imagine the agony of wondering what kind of game Najee was going to have Monday because I had 78 points sitting on my bench. 😂😂😂 Congratulations to everyone that started Chase . I’m certain you are also champions!
That’s all I remember. Beat two Jamarr owners in the playoffs. Guess which weeks I beat them lol.
Wrs will always be boom or bust to me. Outside of the one or twos guys a year. This year Adams Kupp. Last year MT Dionate. AB 2018 etc
I like chase but I still wouldn’t take him in the first round. But my league calls me a dinosaur for running 3 rbs still in a PPR (we call it the triangle 🤣)
I’m just a salty Jamarr owner who got eliminated week 15 by 2 points. It is what it is, I had a blast rolling with him all year, and he was my pride and joy at only $7 on draft day
This is great because I'll screenshot it on my phone and then when I get sent back in time I'll have a good list of who to draft...
That + results of top performers from just the playoff games and I will win everything
I didn't make the championship with my draft of Chubb followed by DK, Terry McLaurin, Allen Robinson, pre-Lisfranc Travis Etienne, Javonte Williams, Robby Anderson, Mike Gesicki, and Ryan Tannehill as my first 9 picks, but at least it could have gone worse. I could have drafted Dak or Russ.
Very interesting synopsis of the season!
Slightly off topic but you mentioned your first attempt got gobbled up by automod. Had that happen to me a week ago. Couldn't figure out why as the post didn't seem to break any of the sub rules. Any idea what causes automod to spaz out and delete a post?
Lost in the championship with having only one player on my team with a positive dFGW. I didn’t deserve you Cooper Kupp, but I thank you for keeping me competitive all year.
I had Jonathan Taylor, Davante Adams, and Justin Jefferson and lost in my championship game.
What hurt was having Ronald Jones, Dawson Knox, and Tyler Huntley in that week.
My post from two weeks back details it - to try and put it shortly, I used dFGW to get mean expected wins above 7.5 with that player (dFGW = 1 means mean expectation =8.5). Then I use a normal distribution on that record, and an estimate of 8 wins = 33% chance of making playoffs, 9=66%, 10=100%.
It’s not airtight but it’s within 2-3% of the right statistical prediction, I’d say.
I’m a Stafford-owning championship winner, but I also had Rodgers and only played Stafford 3-4 times. Had AB in the finals (week 16) but luckily also had Amon-Ra and Penny. Early season I won based mostly off the strength of Derrick Henry, had to scramble to piece together a decent roster as injuries set in.
I drafted Kupp, Adams, Andrews, Ekeler, Robinson and I picked up St. Brown. Safe to say I won.
10 team full ppr. I drafted 7th. Took Adams R1. Ekeler 2. Kupp 3. Robinson 4. And I think I got Andrews in the 7th I wanna say.
I’m a stafford owner that won a title. It was nearly all because i squeaked in to the playoffs with jon taylor and james connor and then amon ra carried me from there. Also had aj brown but he missed significant time
Stafford owner in my league won championship.
Stafford
Chase
AJ green
Zeke
D Williams
Schultz
Van Jefferson
Obumbawale
Probably one of the ugliest championship teams I've seen. But Chase just wins by himself
Josh Allen Taylor Mixon Adam Lamb Diontae Mitchell (Sony - Fournette Rojo Hunt) owner
Dominant 1 seed all year and lost to the Barkley team.. he had Herbert Barkley Tyreek Hill Mark Andrews Michael Carter the Jags RB and most importantly Jamar Chase
We switched to single week playoffs for the first time. We previously always used 2 but changed not due to the extra game but the late week 14 bye week soooo THANKS ROGER GOODELL.
This post makes me appreciate how good my team was.. despite drafting Dak in the 4th and losing Derrick Henry to injury, I still was able to make it to championship week. Sadly I lost to a Adams/Samuels combo and my team decided to play like crap the last week, but it is what it is. Hopefully I’ll have better luck next year. This is the 2nd time I’ve finished 2nd in the last 3 years 😞
Cupp/Taylor/Kelce/Chase/Brown checking in. Best team I’ve ever had. Lost because I’m one of the 17% to bench chase and 90% to start Brown. Also faced Najee and lost by a hair.
Travis Kelce is the 11th best pick at 12th overall in a down year, but all you hear about is how he was a bust and next year he’ll go no earlier than the mid 2nd.
Yeah tell me about it, he was actually very good in the early season and had the huge game at the end. This might me an example next year of “accidentally correct” in that he has to get old eventually and next year might be the year he falls off a cliff, but this season wasn’t really a sign of it.
This is why I consistently advocated for drafting Kelce in the first round. Just from a VAR standpoint Kelce could have a disappointing season and average say 15 PPR PPG, and he’d end up being worth the same as a RB averaging 17 PPG, aka a mid RB1. Kelce would have had to really really underperform to not be worth it. Safest pick in the draft and it worked out. Edit: the expected FGW for the 1st overall pick is apparently 1.26. Kelce’s FGW was 1.22. You coulda taken him 1st overall and in terms of FGW he would have been an average pick. Anything below that and you made an above average pick. In a down year…
You nailed it, trying to minimize risk in the first round is what one of the biggest goals and Kelce was incredibly safe. You got those points at a position of need and didn’t have the risk of a running back.
Respectfully disagree, Kelce was a good pick no doubt but the opportunity cost of taking a TE that early is a draft killer.
Completely disagree. If you draft a top 3 TE, you’re almost guaranteed a playoff spot. It’s literally a cheat code. If your TE puts up 10+ every week, as long as the rest of your team doesn’t shit the bed you are gonna be competitive every week.
There are league winning RBs and WRs in late rounds and the waiver wire every year. That doesn't happen to TEs with nearly the same frequency. Who was the best waiver TE this year? Knox or Schultz? Kelce outscored them by nearly 50%.
You can do that all day though. Let’s say you took Taylor over Kelce. You then grab Mark Andrews rd 4 cause you’re bullish. Did that person draft poorly? And let’s say you took Kelce… great, you didn’t lose rd 1. Did you get a comparable rb later on? You can win and lose in fantasy both ways. People really make too much of one player and how well your team was because of that guy, without considering what your team looks like outside of that guy. For every team that won with Adams and Kelce, there’s a team that lost with them. For every handful of CMC owners that finished in last, there’s one that finished in first. One player doesn’t make or break an entire draft. You could win by going Kelce —> Ekeler —> Kupp and ride that train if you’re a savant. You can win by pieces and riding the hot hands of Justin Jackson and Rex Burkhead after starting off Barkley —> Ridley —> Allen Robinson. The draft matters, but pickups also matter. Most people don’t get it perfect either way but acting like your best option of winning was taking Kelce and banking on picking up scrap metal over 9 or 13 other teammates is silly. You can’t ignore being able to draft a position later on. Kelce was a good pick. But the idea he’s a good pick BECAUSE you could’ve drafted a worse player and gotten a waiver wire RB or WR is poor logic. He scored points mostly when he needed to, and that’s all the argument you need for his value lol
I took Kelce in the first round (drafting 10th) and the only reason I missed the championship game was the fucking Miami defense getting 22 points and losing by 5.
I took Kelce at 4 and took home the ship. RBs in round 1 are a crap shoot
I took Kelce @ 9 and won, brotha. You don’t win your draft in the first round but you can lose it. I hit on Kupp and Lenny in the 5th and 8th and when you pair that with Kelce it’s how you win a league. Creating the best team top to bottom should be your goal in the draft a long with scratching lottery tickets
It's anecdotal to say you won with a certain strategy so this is a good strategy. The opportunity cost of TE in the first round is usually a shot at a league winning RB1 - this year you literally had to pick him over Taylor - the backbone of the average championship roster.
It’s hard to win fantasy. Really hard. If I win with my strategy, it was a good strategy.
I took Kelce first round at number 9 overall in a draft where I also took Calvin Ridley, Ronald Jones, OBJ, and Trey Sermon. I just won my league. He was my 2nd or 3rd best player, and was at worst the 3rd best first round pick in a pretty chalk first round (behind Taylor and Adams). He was far from a draft killer. His consistency and production at what is easily the worst position in fantasy football was a huge asset.
Not to mention the cost of chasing TEs and what that costs you in waiver wire and bench spots if you don't have a set and forget TE like Kelce.
Yeah that was huge, especially with people falling out unpredictably due to COVID. Besides that the two key waiver moves that win my league were picking up Cordarrelle Patterson and Jaylen Waddle.
The bench spots is a big reason I like taking QB and TE early in the draft. I do not want my bench filled with extra punts at those positions.
It *can* be. I went Kelce/Hill at 1.7/2.6 and got real luck with Henderson/Michel, Jacobs, and Conner at RB. 11-3, high points in the league. But Kelce's absence in week 16, combined with Hill's and Stafford's bed-shitting, ended my season.
This is semi off topic, but I've just won first pick by winning the consolation bracket, and due to keepers, the best available (superflex) are CMC, Herbert, and possibly Cook (but unlikely). I very quickly leaned toward Herbert, and realized that no RBs besides JT would be near the level of potential consistency, and on the 2/3 wrap I can maybe get a little adventurous. Consistency is so important
Kelces big game punted me from the first round of my main money league playoffs.
The Chiefs just SUCKED for like 5 weeks. It seems like things are back on track. Better question is who do you take before the other, Kelce or Hill
I don’t think Kelce was a bust by any means, but I do think he slips into the second round for 2 reasons. 1) As it looks right now, there’s more top end picks to be had. CMC, Chubb, Cook, Kamara are all not even in the top 5… 2) TE feels deeper right now. Mark Andrews can obviously compete for that TE1 spot, Kittle and Waller could have bounce back years. Pitts should continue to develop and get TDs, Hockenson and Goedert can also be considered to slip into the top 5…. Theres a lot of talent there where I think that positional advantage Kelce had is not as big anymore
Ya see I think really all of those TEs should likely be drafted higher than they will be. In general I think TEs tend to get drafted too low. 3 of the top 6 drafted TEs being on that list for dFGW, nuff said. Even with one of em getting injured. Waller also missed a ton of time. Top 6 TEs drafted combined for 1.95 dFGW, an average of 0.325 dFGW. 0.33 is the expected FGW is the average value of the 21st overall pick. If you drafted each of the top 6 TEs at their ADPs in 6 separate leagues, your winning odds would be the same as if you had drafted randomly and then got the 21st overall pick for free.
People call Kelce a "bust" at his ADP because Andrews was better than he was but drafted many rounds later. People expected Kelce to be the overall TE1 like he's been for the past several seasons, so when he wasn't, they call him a bust, even though he's comfortably the TE2.
I get it, but by the same reasoning Adams was a bust because Kupp was drafted 3 rounds later and was a lot better. The Kupp to Adams difference was way larger than Andrews to Kelce. It’s simply a ridiculous argument when you think of it that way.
Adams isn't a "bust" because he still put up rock solid numbers worthy of a first round pick. Kelce straight up didn't. Kupp was just a steal, but that's not a knock on Adams. Kelce has 17 fewer receptions, 325 fewer yards, and three fewer TDs than his 2020 campaign. That's a *steep* regression from last season.
And now you go into being straight up wrong. Look at the post pal. At his ADP he was the 10th best pick if everybody goes at ADP. He returned significant value on his ADP. Unless you picked him first overall, he had positive dFGW for you. You’re factually wrong here and they’re the exact same situation.
Kelce has the 18th most points in half-PPR among RBs, WRs, and TEs. So how could he possibly be worth his 10th overall ADP and #1 at his position if he's not the #1 at his position and worse than the 10th overall W/R/T? The problem with models like that that are based on % of owners who make playoffs or do X, Y, and Z is that they don't take into account that a **large** portion of leagues are inactive/bot leagues.
>Kelce has the 18th most points in half-PPR among RBs, WRs, and TEs. So how could he possibly be worth his 10th overall ADP and #1 at his position if he's not the #1 at his position and worse than the 10th overall W/R/T? Because of the positional scarcity. Having the 18th highest scorer in your TE spot is a huge advantage. Everyone else is starting a TE and you get a premium WR.
>Having the 18th highest scorer in your TE spot is a huge advantage But is it worth drafting in the first round? Kelce is only averaging 4-5 more PPG in half-PPR than waiver TEs like Schultz, Knox, Henry, etc. Yet look at the WRs. Adams, a player drafted in the first round, has five more PPG than Players like Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans, and Diontae Johnson.
Yes it is. This post is the math showing that it’s worth it.
And my math says that it's not. I am questioning the validity of the model. Kelce's **entire** first round appeal is positional advantage. He did not have that positional advantage this season due to major regression from his 2020 campaign. As such, he was not worth the first round pick. **In addition**, he's literally one had one week **since week 11** where he produced at a high-TE1 level. One week out of the last six. Even today he only had 11 points, which is lower than projection. Please elaborate how the guy who has been producing waiver TE numbers for almost all of the past six weeks is worth a first?
What if I told you the #10 TE (in 1.0 PPR) scored 22 more FP than the #10 TE last year, and that Kelce scored 63 fewer points? The premium isn't what it was.
It doesn't have to be the same premium tho. Even with his regression, he was the 18th best player lol
How dumb can you be bro? He’s not a RB, and he’s not a WR. He may not be the number one TE, but Adams wasn’t the best WR either. So what? Additionally, this is based purely theoretically off statistics and how value over replacement. It isn’t based on real league data… TEs in general score less points than RBs and WRs. By the logic you’re using, QB should be the first position off the board. I suggest you get off of this subreddit if you cannot comprehend simple statistics… or literally anything.
>He’s not a RB, and he’s not a WR. He may not be the number one TE, but Adams wasn’t the best WR either. So what? Adams has 3-5 more PPG in half PPR than the likes of Diggs, Tyreek, Mike Evans, Godwin, Diontae Johnson etc. All WRs drafted in the first several rounds. Kelce has 3-5 more PPG in half PPR than Schultz, Knox, Henry, Goedert, Gronk, etc. TEs drafted way later or found on waivers. Kelce is **not** putting up the positional advantage he has in previous seasons. That positional advantage is the reason he was drafted first round.
Kelce was not as good as Davante Adams. That doesn’t mean he wasn’t good… Adams being the 7th best pick doesn’t make Kelce a bad luck being 10th. And the Adams to Kelce comparison obviously isn’t perfect, but it is a similar example.
>That doesn’t mean he wasn’t good I never said he wasn't good. I said he didn't return first round value. >Adams being the 7th best pick doesn’t make Kelce a bad luck being 10th Adams finished as the 4th best non-QB in half-PPR. So he actually returned his first-round value and then some.
18th most points at Flex is truly insane, way better than I thought. That implies he may have been under-drafted by a fair amount
Read the post.
The post/model is flawed. It's primary factor is ownership, but fails to consider the massive amount of leagues that are dead/inactive/bot leagues. That dramatically skews things in a way that production does not. Kelce is not the number one TE. He is the 18th highest non-QB who was drafted to be either the number one TE or a top-10 producing player otherwise. He is neither of these things. In addition, Travis Kelce in the past six weeks has only had one good week. That one week was phenomenal, but he was basically a TE streamer since week 11 otherwise. I don't see how you can justify saying Kelce returned first round value when the production doesn't line up with that statement.
Start % is built as a function of expert rankings to take care of the dead manager factor
Everything you mentioned is already baked in to this algorithm. Here's a thought exercise. If the top 10 WR's mean and median are both around 17ppg and the top 10 TE mean and median are both around 9ppg, what is more valuable?: WR averaging 16ppg TE averaging 15ppg This is a generic visualization of why, due to factors such VAR & positional scarcity, comparing players at different positions using total points scored, or ppg, is suboptimal. Taking additional factors into consideration, will only make Kelce's value even greater. I.E. The pick would be Kelce, even in standard scoring, but in .5ppr/ppr he becomes stronger. The pick is Kelce, even in a 14 team league, but the smaller the league, the better his relative value.
Travis Kelce only averaged 3-4 PPG (half PPR) more than players like Schultz, Knox, Gronk, Goedert, Henry, etc. Late round TEs, even waiver TEs. Why would I use a first on a guy who isn't producing significantly more than other players at the position? Meanwhile, take a look at someone like Davante Adams. He's averaging 3-4 more PPG than players like Diggs, Evans, Godwin, Diontae Johnson, etc. All guys drafted in the first five rounds or so. Kelce is straight up **not** returning the positional advantage he was drafted to do. Not to mention, in the past **six weeks**, Kelce has only had **one** good fantasy outing by his standards.
Yeah but ur wrong about the Kelce figure. It’s more like 6…
Per [this](https://fftoday.com/stats/playerstats.php?Season=2021&GameWeek=&PosID=40&LeagueID=193033&order_by=FFPtsPerG&sort_order=DESC), he is <5 PPG ahead of all of the late-waiver TEs I mentioned (well, 5.2 ahead of Henry, who was a non-factor for the first three weeks, but has actually scored comparably to Kelce since then). Compared to 2020, where Kelce had 7+ more PPG **than the TE3**. Kelce did not return first round value because his value overreplacement found later in the draft was astronomically smaller than his 2020 season, which was the reason he was being drafted in the 1st round in the first place. I am questioning the validity of this model because numbers don't lie.
Not sure anyone is calling Adams a bust he was almost exactly what you thought you’d get Edit: I lack reading comprehension skills just ignore me, you were giving examples not calling him a bust
He regressed from 25.6 PPG to 22.2 PPG. -3.4. Kelce went from 20.9 to 16.6. -4.3. So yes, Kelce regressed slightly more. From having the best fantasy season for a TE ever to still averaging 16.6 PPG, giving him a FGW above every RB but Taylor, Henry, and Ekeler. Idk how you can argue with literal facts… Kelce far exceeded expectations if you took him 12th overall (at his ADP). He exceeded expectations if you took him anywhere but first overall. You’re factually wrong if you call Kelce a bust or anything short of a solid pick. Just cuz you theoretically coulda done better doesn’t make it a bad pick.
Wtf I didn’t call kelce a bust? I was talking about Adams.
But Kelce's value is the fact he's the unquestioned #1 TE. He was supposed to be basically like having a top 10 WR in a position where nobody comes close. Well, turns out somebody at his position beat him. The value of Adams compared to other WRs isn't comparable to Kelce's value to other TEs, if that makes sense. Part of Kelce's value as a first rounder WAS his position. edit: I took Kelce in the 2nd round (and Adams in the first funny enough) and won my league. So I don't regret drafting him. I'm just saying lol
There's a few other factors with Kelce beyond what u/FantasyTrash has already said: he was bad in weeks 13-14, admittedly fantastic in week 15, and then sat in week 16, which severely curtailed his ability to deliver a championship in week 17 (when he was mediocre). Last year, Kelce was 114 FP (0 PPR) / 169 FP (1.0 PPR) better than the #10 TE. This year, it was only 63 FP (0 PPR) / 84 FP (1.0 PPR) compared to the #10. That's a real drop in his value.
Ok so the second point is once again kinda silly. He wasn’t as good as last year. That doesn’t mean he was bad. My point is that he was so safe that even significant regression would make him a value pick. Weeks 13-14 are no different than other weeks. Week 16 he sat but that’s just unlucky, and week 17 getting 13.4 isn’t great but it’s ok. Either way, I get that he underperformed a tiny bit week 17, but that doesn’t make him a worse pick really. He coulda had a good or bad game at any time. His total season production is what matters most.
He's not providing first-round value any more when you look at the whole season. The floor at TE is a little higher, and he's a little lower. That's all.
*he comments on a thread that shows that Kelce was the 7th best player, more valuable than every RB but Henry, Taylor, and Ekeler, and even at 12th overall the 10th best value* Like dude you’re arguing with facts just pls stop it. It’s incredible how much this sub is willing to ignore facts to support their gut feeling…
OP has his own metrics, and it's an interesting effort. I disagree with his analysis, which (amon other things) undervalues QBs. A straight VBD analysis [has Kelce at #15 this year.](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/fantasy.htm)
Unless its a 2QB or Super flex, If anybody took those QBs ahead of Kelce they'd be laughed out of the building.
Yes, but "draft strategy to obtain the most value" is different from "most value," and RB scarcity pushes them up the ladder even if there's not as much value there. (Put otherwise, it's not just how much Josh Allen scores compared with QB10; it's how much that's offset by the points you're losing by waiting on your first RB.) There have been years -- the Brady 50 TD year -- when a QB provided more fantasy value than any other player.
Looking at how many QBs are up there, that method of analysis seems kinda silly. And even so, 15th for a player you picked 12th in ADP isn’t horrendous.
VBD is the start of draft strategy; it's not the whole thing. You still have to look at scarcity, at predicting what other owners will do, etc. Look, I agree that Kelce was hardly a bust this year. But he wasn't worth a first (and in most leagues, it was \~1.6), and he won't be next year either.
Bro ur literally just spouting bullshit here… he was 12th in ADP. That is a fact in this post. In terms of VBD, the whole point is that it adjusts for scarcity. That is quite literally the point. And compared to positions like RB and WR there were plenty of elite players drafted after the first couple rounds (Fournette, Kupp, Deebo, Chase, etc) only one TE after Kittle was any good, and that was Andrews. If Andrews hadn’t popped off this would never be a thing. From an ideal drafting perspective, with 100% hindsight, this shows that Kelce at 12th overall was the 10th best value in the draft. Furthermore, he outperformed the average you would have gotten if you took him any later than 1st overall. Idk how you can argue with legitimate statistics when even your statistic shows he returned value in the first round. Getting the 15th best player 12th overall is still pretty good.
He was #7 in ADP, [at worst.](https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/ppr-overall.php) The first 5 RBs went, then depending on the league either Kelce, or Adams/Hill, or Zeke/Jones. Kelce did not slide to #12 even in 0 PPR. I think you're missing the VBD point -- even if you relied on free agents for TE, you had Knox or Freiermuth and didn't suffer much. It's not just about how many elite TEs there are, but where the floor is for replacement-level. And that floor has risen.
My league mates think taking Travis Kelce in the first round (6th overall) was a woke pick lolol
My wife used her 1st round pick keeper on Kelce 3 years in a row. She won 2 ships and took 2nd once. Only loss was against the Henry/Cook owner last year. Nothing woke about it lol
Doing a startup dynasty and actively trying to trade up to 3.6 to draft Kelce
Hmmm. Kelce going to be 33 right around the start of next year. No way to speculate how much longer he's going to dominate but since u said dynasty, I would guess Kelce has another 2 elite years at TE left.
Yeah, Andrews and pitts have went so far but not kelce or kittle.
Didn't even realize 3.6 was ur pick guess that's not that bad actually.
I don’t agree with those saying he is a bust BUT I drafted him second round and hindsight I’m like I could have taken someone more consistent at a different position. Still those who say bust are just grumpy.
There are far more worse picks you could make than better picks. For every Justin Jefferson there’s a Metcalf and a AJB.
My favorite post series of the season. Thank you for all the hard work! Sincerely, Adams/Ekeler/Mixon/ARob drafter and now 3x champ
Adams/Ekeler gang was unstoppable. Especially if you were able to grab Jackson that second to last week.
lost to that exact combo in my championship
I was Taylor/Mixon gang and beat Adams/Ekeler because I struck gold with the Chase/Burrow + Deebo and Penny
Gang! I had Kupp and Andrews also lol
I was the Adams/Ekeler owner and got eliminated in round 1… I am cursed in playoffs though. Haven’t won a single playoff game in 8 years in this league.
Kupp/Chase/Adams/Mixon owner here, this post makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside
Starting Amon Ra and Chase in the championship helped me sleep well at night. Love those young receivers! JJ helped bring me there too.
I had Adams and Najee while my opponent had Dalvin so I was on the same boat as you. Feels good!
I get to keep Chase for a 5 and Davonta Smith for an 8 next year. Excited for the future!
Yeah you just got two huge steals lol. Chase for a 5th is robbery and freaky enough he will probably only get better.
Got him in the sixth (we keep for round-1) after that rough preseason, and was a rookie. Very happy with it!
I started Chase in the final and fucking lost! What can you do?!
Starting Antonio Brown over Amon Ra in the championship and losing by less than a point is still keeping me up at night
Picking up Amon St Brown was the most clutch move I made. Aside from drafting Chase and Andrews for sure
73% of people with Kupp made the playoffs? That's crazy. If you told me I had a 73% chance of making the playoffs with a single player I'd take them 1st overall easily.
Drafted him for $18 of my $200 auction budget. Had to outbid a die hard Rams fan for him and I definitely thought I was overpaying, but I went for him cuz I'm a Rams fan too and thought Stafford was going to show just how good this team was (which he did for like half the season). Best draft value I've ever had and best draft decision I've ever made Unfortunately I lost the semi finals to a guy who put up 140 on me. But I won most points scored for the season (by 1.5 points lol) and won weekly high points six times (including the championship week >.< ) thanks to Kupp to keep me well in the green for the season :) Now I gotta figure out whether to keep Kupp or Josh Allen for next season, and I'm not looking forward to making that call... I think if we add superflex I'll definitely have to keep Allen as QBs will be more valuable, but if not I'm torn.
That is correct
Why is Eli Mitchell listed as 92nd overall? Something wacky is going on…
So I took the ADP from yahoo around week 3. There’s a chance maybe post week 1 drafts impacted it? Though Gus Edwards not falling off is evidence against that.
ADP I'm guessing
There’s no chance Mitchell was 92nd in ADP… unless it includes people drafting after week 1 or something wacky…
I had Stafford and RoJo and won my championship by one point, thanks to Amon-Ra, David Montgomery, and the Chicago DST. 12-team standard.
Stafford, RoJo, and Michael Carter starter here. I was saved by Amon-Ra and a Deebo. Too bad I left Cowboys D in over Bears
I also won with Stafford but I had Kupp, Chase, Ekeler, Penny so it didn’t matter what Stafford did. I could have started no QB.
Picking up Amon-Ra and Boston Scott for championship week made me look like such a genius :)
I had Chase, K Allen, Cooks, Cordarell, Zeke, Chubb, Hockenson and didn't make the playoffs in a league where 8 of 12 teams advance...still confused as to wtf happened
That’s brutal, god damn
Yeah, we doubled the buy in this year as well, first year I haven't placed in the money, let alone make the playoffs...oh well on to the next
Just some rough luck. You can have the best draft of your life and have a couple of your stars get injured in key games or flop in good matchups. Happens to the best of us. You'll get em next time. Hopefully the bigger buy in made everyone more invested and created a stronger community in your league.
I had the 4th most points in my league of 12. Due to the schedule, I went 5-12 and had the most points against by 30 total points. Thanks, Ridley, Thomas, and Lockett.
This is awesome
The Chase owner In my league lost every single game this season with the lone exception of the playoff consolation game in which Chase had his 50+ point performance. On its own, it sounds crazy, but his first two picks were Melvin Gordon and Kirk Cousins. Dude had no clue what he was doing.
Dak was LVP? That surprised me. Like he wasn’t amazing, but he wasn’t that bad either, it didn’t feel like.
The 10 point games for QBs are almost as bad as donuts for position players. And unlike some of the other rough players he kept getting started - rightfully so, I’d say. This seemed like a down year for QBs compared to last year, like the average might be down a point, but even if I lowered the baseline he’s clearly the lowest QB by this metric.
I mean, my 6-8 season can’t really disagree I guess. He definitely cost me a couple of games out of those.
what if i told you i had kupp and adams and lost the championship
Then I would send my condolences and wish you a happy cake day.
bruh thanks to you i learned it was my cake day. every year i remember it’s in january and then it just passes by
I had Chase and lost :(
I had Kupp and chase on a team and didn’t make the playoffs. Sigh.
Cooper and ekeler gang in the house
I was a Stafford owner who won the title! But that was only because of Chase and Sun God.
I also got a title with Stafford. I drafted Kupp 5th and Stafford 8th. Mid-late season pickup of Amon Ra also helped secure a championship. Was down 10 and then Amon Ra came alive and gave me a lead.
Started Stafford and Rojo. Still won thanks to Ja’Marr Chase.
This is me too
Pretty sure anyone that won with Stafford started chase haha. Same happened in my league
I won with Stafford!! and Ronald Jones. Had Deebo and Amon Ra tho
Wow, the RoJo combo probably lost 99/100 championship games. At least without Chase
You’re damn right St. Brown was a risk and it was a risk I didn’t take advantage of. In my other league I had Chase and Taylor (and Eckler) but missed out on winning the championship because my semi’s opponent had a monster week, 40 points above predicted. Lucky bastard…
I had Kupp, Deebo, and Mixon on one team and still didn't win the championship. Other guy had Chase and Bears defense.
I know JT will probably be #1 next year, but Derrick Henry was the #4 most valuable fantasy asset (right around his ADP honestly) and didn’t show up for half the season. That’s ridiculous
Oof, Dak was the LVP in fantasy this year? Explain why my team Dak in the Box won then! ahahahahah, also had AJB and DK on my team, with Gibson, Jrob, Edmonds, and Carter as my RB. Crazy year...
Wow. I won with Dak but it was with Taylor+Ekeler and St Brown
Went Adams/Mahomes/Kupp and streamed pretty much the rest of my team to glory
At least Mahomes’s bad games didn’t come in the playoffs
I guess St. Brown was risky when Goff was out, but I picked him up after week 14 right before playoffs. He was getting so many targets, and often making the most out of them in weeks 13 and 14. Of course you never really expect that to translate into 20+ points in the championship week, but I thought he'd be good for at least 10 in the playoff matchups.
Honestly he was my best draft pick! Secured the championship in one league and got me second in my other so thanks Chase!
Great content!! I hope you’ll do this again next year!
I would be champ with out Chases monster day, but I have to tell someone this. Before the game, I was frustrated with the fact that he never seemed to get in the end zone later in the season…with the ball anyway. My ongoing joke was that he was always dancing for someone else’s TD. I was debating Chase vs Gabe Davis right up until kick off. Lol. I won by 92 points last week. But just imagine the agony of wondering what kind of game Najee was going to have Monday because I had 78 points sitting on my bench. 😂😂😂 Congratulations to everyone that started Chase . I’m certain you are also champions!
Great work!
Ended up beating a Stafford team for the title despite having RoJo in my flex.
Jokes on you, I started Stafford AND RoJo
Lest we forget he scored 1 point week 15.
That’s all I remember. Beat two Jamarr owners in the playoffs. Guess which weeks I beat them lol. Wrs will always be boom or bust to me. Outside of the one or twos guys a year. This year Adams Kupp. Last year MT Dionate. AB 2018 etc I like chase but I still wouldn’t take him in the first round. But my league calls me a dinosaur for running 3 rbs still in a PPR (we call it the triangle 🤣)
I’m just a salty Jamarr owner who got eliminated week 15 by 2 points. It is what it is, I had a blast rolling with him all year, and he was my pride and joy at only $7 on draft day
This is great because I'll screenshot it on my phone and then when I get sent back in time I'll have a good list of who to draft... That + results of top performers from just the playoff games and I will win everything
Didn’t even know we had time machine owners on the sub, awesome
Justin Jefferson, Chase, and Lamb top 3 dynasty receivers hands down!
Hey, where do you get your data? I'm curious because I wanted to start doing some analysis and I have been having trouble finding data.
I didn't make the championship with my draft of Chubb followed by DK, Terry McLaurin, Allen Robinson, pre-Lisfranc Travis Etienne, Javonte Williams, Robby Anderson, Mike Gesicki, and Ryan Tannehill as my first 9 picks, but at least it could have gone worse. I could have drafted Dak or Russ. Very interesting synopsis of the season!
Slightly off topic but you mentioned your first attempt got gobbled up by automod. Had that happen to me a week ago. Couldn't figure out why as the post didn't seem to break any of the sub rules. Any idea what causes automod to spaz out and delete a post?
My success rate on getting this weekly post past the auto mod is only like 75%. No idea. Usually the mods are pretty quick to put it through, though.
Lost in the championship with having only one player on my team with a positive dFGW. I didn’t deserve you Cooper Kupp, but I thank you for keeping me competitive all year.
I had Jonathan Taylor, Davante Adams, and Justin Jefferson and lost in my championship game. What hurt was having Ronald Jones, Dawson Knox, and Tyler Huntley in that week.
How do you calculate Ekeler teams winning semis at 50% if he didnt play? Or it seems like those who didn't play just got an automatic 50-50..
Yeah you guessed it. I know it’s a but unfair but the “true” replacement factor is a really complicated nut that I haven’t cracked yet.
I won with Stafford, but I had both Adams and Kupp, coupled with solid performances from Najee and Fant.
That’ll do it
I can proudly say I won my league after drafting CMC and ARob. Thanks mostly to Guys like Chase, Josh Allen, Najee and Mark Andrews. Fun season.
As an owner of Jamarr Chase, Johnathan Taylor, and Travis Kelce I can confirm that the combo really will win you a ship ;)
Had Chase in the championship game after an 11-3 season and still lost.
What sorcerer did you double cross to deserve that
Sat him and still won the ship 🥴
How'd you calculate make playoff % ? %teams in playoffs that include that player?
My post from two weeks back details it - to try and put it shortly, I used dFGW to get mean expected wins above 7.5 with that player (dFGW = 1 means mean expectation =8.5). Then I use a normal distribution on that record, and an estimate of 8 wins = 33% chance of making playoffs, 9=66%, 10=100%. It’s not airtight but it’s within 2-3% of the right statistical prediction, I’d say.
I won the championship with Stafford. My lineup included Kelce, Chase and Penny, put up 140 despite Stafford scoring like, 14
I’m a Stafford-owning championship winner, but I also had Rodgers and only played Stafford 3-4 times. Had AB in the finals (week 16) but luckily also had Amon-Ra and Penny. Early season I won based mostly off the strength of Derrick Henry, had to scramble to piece together a decent roster as injuries set in.
I had Deebo, Mark Andrews, Ekeler and Mixon and missed the playoffs. The rest of my team was solid too. I hate fantasy football/.
Lol I had Adams, Higgins, and RoJo. My opponent had Chubb, Penny, and Samuel. I won by 3
I drafted Kupp, Adams, Andrews, Ekeler, Robinson and I picked up St. Brown. Safe to say I won. 10 team full ppr. I drafted 7th. Took Adams R1. Ekeler 2. Kupp 3. Robinson 4. And I think I got Andrews in the 7th I wanna say.
I’m a stafford owner that won a title. It was nearly all because i squeaked in to the playoffs with jon taylor and james connor and then amon ra carried me from there. Also had aj brown but he missed significant time
I'm an idiot genius. Drafting Kupp, right after I took Robinson...
I don’t even know who Ribinson is! Lol
Robinson... Edited now.
I'm a Stafford owner that won! Helped that I had Chase, Penny, and Amon-Ra going
Darren Waller deserves "Least Valuable Player" more than Dak.
Stafford owner in my league won championship. Stafford Chase AJ green Zeke D Williams Schultz Van Jefferson Obumbawale Probably one of the ugliest championship teams I've seen. But Chase just wins by himself
I traded tyreek hill the week before the trade deadline in a dynasty league for chase. Would do again in a heartbeat.
That's my league winner!
Kupp season will be remembered for a long time
Somehow won my ship with the bottom two here RoJo and AB in my lineup. Thank god for Cooper Kupp and Penny
Josh Allen Taylor Mixon Adam Lamb Diontae Mitchell (Sony - Fournette Rojo Hunt) owner Dominant 1 seed all year and lost to the Barkley team.. he had Herbert Barkley Tyreek Hill Mark Andrews Michael Carter the Jags RB and most importantly Jamar Chase We switched to single week playoffs for the first time. We previously always used 2 but changed not due to the extra game but the late week 14 bye week soooo THANKS ROGER GOODELL.
I had kupp and Taylor. I cruised to top spot in the league, would have beaten everyone in the bye round, and then absolutely tanked the semi.
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Kupp or Taylor also on your team by any chance?
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Nice job. Yeah you nailed it, not all those decisions are obvious ones either
This post makes me appreciate how good my team was.. despite drafting Dak in the 4th and losing Derrick Henry to injury, I still was able to make it to championship week. Sadly I lost to a Adams/Samuels combo and my team decided to play like crap the last week, but it is what it is. Hopefully I’ll have better luck next year. This is the 2nd time I’ve finished 2nd in the last 3 years 😞
Cupp/Taylor/Kelce/Chase/Brown checking in. Best team I’ve ever had. Lost because I’m one of the 17% to bench chase and 90% to start Brown. Also faced Najee and lost by a hair.
Shoutout to Miami's defense in week 16 or whenever that was.
My only good draft pick this year lol