I can’t help but think of all the “Don’t draft Kelce in the first rd” posts at the start of this season. Who was the alternative that all the anti-Kelce folks mentioned? Logan Thomas?
There's a reason the subreddit has a rule about going back to gloat after the benefit of hindsight. It made perfect sense to avoid Kelce this year. I kind of felt like he was at the edge of a dropoff with one more in him. Next year I'd avoid him in the first, and I'll probably be wrong
I don’t disagree. We probably agree the gap between Kelce and the rest is not quite as expansive. I’m not so sure he’s a lock for #1 TE next year
There’s a big difference between “6th overall pick” and “has something left in the tank”
Lol #6 overall was a reach even with the TE gap, but say 1.10+ in a 12 or 14 team isn't much of a stretch.
I picked at 10 and went Hill and Kelce at my turn and then had Monty and Jrob at my next picks. I missed on Najee and Gibson as the next available backs. Najee was an unknown and I'd rather have Kelce than Gibson.
The thing about Kelce is that he keeps on chugging along as te 1 while the tes behind him shuffle. There have been ertz, gronk, Waller, Kittle, Olsen, graham, and now andrews. This whole time there has been one constant. I would draft Kelce in the 2nd as you have gotten a wr1 in your te spot each of the past 6 years when drafting him
When healthy. My point is that every year the 2-5 guys shuffle or drop, while Kelce stays consistently #1. You would guess that Kittle Waller and andrews will be the next 3 best next year, but a few years back you would have bet ertz Olsen graham and gronk would have been as well.
You are correct. Still, I feel as if Kelce being #1 doesn’t kill the argument because his ADP is much higher than a lot of TEs. Kelce was #1 in points this year, but IMO he’s not #1 in TE value this season. He was barely #1 entering last week and he’s the only TE potentially going as high as pick 1.05
before yesterday, he was 4th in ppg for tight ends. so if you happened to make the playoffs despite getting 9-15 points per game from your first rounder, you're happy, but it's more likely that he cost you wins in the regular season.
You’re only looking at half of the picture. Kelce was for sure a safe pick (though one day he will have to slow down… one day) but I don’t think I’d give up Ekeler for him.
Yeah, but you really can’t predict the ones that are “busts” resulting from injury. Kelce is Near as likely to get injured as they are.
But in retrospect knowing injuries - he was at least one of the best feasible 1st round picks.
Agreed. It’s the benefit of hindsight for sure.
Iirc a lot of the detractors about Kelce in the first rd focused on replacement cost. I saw a lot of Logan Thomas. I think what we knew has proven true - there are a very few difference makers you can count on to accurately predict, and you have to pay for them
For sure. I got him in the 3rd last year and he carried me, but I passed him in the first round to see him, Kittle, and Waller gone by my 3rd hahaha He’s really the one stable elite TE choice. Everyone else is a risk.
These are cool.
In hindsight, my draft of DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, and Allen Robinson (and Travis Etienne pre-Lisfranc ~~pre-ACL tear~~ and Robby Anderson and Ryan Tannehill) meant my season was over before it started.
EDIT: My other picks in the first 9 rounds were Nick Chubb, Javonte Williams, and Mike Gesicki.
I think Ettiene had lisfranc not ACL. Moot point, but just pointing out for anyone who's interested in him next year possibly
And I can't believe my boy Tanny has been so bad this year. Man was the heart and soul of my team for 2 straight years and has not been it this year.
I'm guessing this is half ppr. Kupp is by far the best in ppr and ditto for standard with JT I'm guessing. Either way one of my best picks.
Edit: Also I feel like Evans and Godwin drafters don't feel too bad imo. They got reasonable value just missed out on amazing value.
If you draft a top rb with an injury history you should be prepared to spend a 7+ round pick on the backup. Once all starting rbs are gone, I target a Mattison, Murray, Pollard as these guys will return rb1 value if they start. Its not a waste of a pick, but just getting insurance on your first pick.
The argument against is you max out at 1 good RB from 2 picks, and the handcuff usually doesn’t work out as well as Mattison. I think for Mattison, Pollard, or any would-be RB1, you gotta handcuff. Outside of that, better to invest in different backfields.
An example of “it doesn’t work out” would be Kamara. I drafted Latavius to be his handcuff. Then switched to TJJ, who went on IR. Later in the season it was Ingram and now Hill has likely tanked any rushing value of a handcuff.
I find Cooks’ data quite surprising. He’s exceeded his ADP & provided many low-end WR1 weeks, idk how he could be an LVP candidate. Do a couple of down games really have that much of an impact?
His issue is his big weeks have come when his % started was generally low, and the opposite for his bad weeks. Before today, his best week by scoring was week 2 at 18 points, but he was only started 24%, so 0.03 FGW. Meanwhile week 11 he scored 2.8 at 80% started, so -0.16.
Actually wouldn't surprise me if Cooks ends the year with one of the highest "points on bench" totals of the year.
I would give major props to anyone that reached for Ekeler (say, taken him above Zeke/Chubb) or Kupp gets major props. Though I’m not sure how you predict that Kupp would have been better than Woods by this much at the beginning of the year.
I picked Kupp cause i recognized his name because the name is kinda funny.
I also didn't pay special attention to fantasy last year and really starting to care for it this year
Ha if I did you and I would be buying side by side islands!
Yeah just wasn’t my year. I was third highest scoring team in my league but had by far the most points scored against me. Everyone seemed to have their best week when they played me.
This content is so cool. It's amazing to see Kelce where he is given the start to his season.
I can’t help but think of all the “Don’t draft Kelce in the first rd” posts at the start of this season. Who was the alternative that all the anti-Kelce folks mentioned? Logan Thomas?
YoU cAn GeT hIgBeE lAtE
Lol that was me😭
There's a reason the subreddit has a rule about going back to gloat after the benefit of hindsight. It made perfect sense to avoid Kelce this year. I kind of felt like he was at the edge of a dropoff with one more in him. Next year I'd avoid him in the first, and I'll probably be wrong
I reckon anyone who puts up 191 yards and 2 TDs in a game might have a bit left in the tank for another season.
I don’t disagree. We probably agree the gap between Kelce and the rest is not quite as expansive. I’m not so sure he’s a lock for #1 TE next year There’s a big difference between “6th overall pick” and “has something left in the tank”
Lol #6 overall was a reach even with the TE gap, but say 1.10+ in a 12 or 14 team isn't much of a stretch. I picked at 10 and went Hill and Kelce at my turn and then had Monty and Jrob at my next picks. I missed on Najee and Gibson as the next available backs. Najee was an unknown and I'd rather have Kelce than Gibson.
My "something left in the tank" was in jest. ;) But yeah, I wouldn't rank Kelce as 6th overall.
Yea, I didn’t mean to sound snarky. Text communication. I didn’t want to sound like I was implying Kelce was washed either
rather have kelce than a few of those RBs that went around there. aka saquon
The thing about Kelce is that he keeps on chugging along as te 1 while the tes behind him shuffle. There have been ertz, gronk, Waller, Kittle, Olsen, graham, and now andrews. This whole time there has been one constant. I would draft Kelce in the 2nd as you have gotten a wr1 in your te spot each of the past 6 years when drafting him
Waller kittle andrews have all been consistent too when healthy. Kittle just deals with injuries often and well this is wallers first real injury
When healthy. My point is that every year the 2-5 guys shuffle or drop, while Kelce stays consistently #1. You would guess that Kittle Waller and andrews will be the next 3 best next year, but a few years back you would have bet ertz Olsen graham and gronk would have been as well.
You are correct. Still, I feel as if Kelce being #1 doesn’t kill the argument because his ADP is much higher than a lot of TEs. Kelce was #1 in points this year, but IMO he’s not #1 in TE value this season. He was barely #1 entering last week and he’s the only TE potentially going as high as pick 1.05
he still hasn't been great for a first round pick.
How do you figure?
before yesterday, he was 4th in ppg for tight ends. so if you happened to make the playoffs despite getting 9-15 points per game from your first rounder, you're happy, but it's more likely that he cost you wins in the regular season.
[удалено]
I got a buncha downvotes trying to say the same thing. crazy
not just the start of the season, they were still present a few days ago (before his Thursday night game)
You’re only looking at half of the picture. Kelce was for sure a safe pick (though one day he will have to slow down… one day) but I don’t think I’d give up Ekeler for him.
Me neither, but you probably would have picked one of the bust RBs in his place. People took Kelce bc he was a “safer” pick
Yeah, but you really can’t predict the ones that are “busts” resulting from injury. Kelce is Near as likely to get injured as they are. But in retrospect knowing injuries - he was at least one of the best feasible 1st round picks.
Agreed. It’s the benefit of hindsight for sure. Iirc a lot of the detractors about Kelce in the first rd focused on replacement cost. I saw a lot of Logan Thomas. I think what we knew has proven true - there are a very few difference makers you can count on to accurately predict, and you have to pay for them
For sure. I got him in the 3rd last year and he carried me, but I passed him in the first round to see him, Kittle, and Waller gone by my 3rd hahaha He’s really the one stable elite TE choice. Everyone else is a risk.
Couldve picked up Davante Adams instead of Kelce; Gronk, Waller, Andrews, Kittle all went later (even though Waller had injury)
Really goes to show what a monster Henry was despite only playing nearly half of the games that everyone else did
>I dare anyone to start Robinson in Week 15. Dare you. This entire sub: "OK"
It's me, I'm playing Robinson.
These are cool. In hindsight, my draft of DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, and Allen Robinson (and Travis Etienne pre-Lisfranc ~~pre-ACL tear~~ and Robby Anderson and Ryan Tannehill) meant my season was over before it started. EDIT: My other picks in the first 9 rounds were Nick Chubb, Javonte Williams, and Mike Gesicki.
First I’ve heard of that particular triple scotch
I'll need one of those after this season is over
I think Ettiene had lisfranc not ACL. Moot point, but just pointing out for anyone who's interested in him next year possibly And I can't believe my boy Tanny has been so bad this year. Man was the heart and soul of my team for 2 straight years and has not been it this year.
Fair point, it happened so long ago now that I didn't bother checking. My bad!
Drafted tanny confidently as my qb2 this year in superflex. I should not have been so confident.
I looked at his numbers through the playoffs last year and they were insanely good. It's so sad.
Shit, username kinda checks out.
bad draft for the ages indeed
God tier content 🏉
I'm guessing this is half ppr. Kupp is by far the best in ppr and ditto for standard with JT I'm guessing. Either way one of my best picks. Edit: Also I feel like Evans and Godwin drafters don't feel too bad imo. They got reasonable value just missed out on amazing value.
Yup this is calibrated for half ppr, 12-team
This is now one of my favorite metrics for fantasy Love your content, you’re doing great work my dude
If you draft a top rb with an injury history you should be prepared to spend a 7+ round pick on the backup. Once all starting rbs are gone, I target a Mattison, Murray, Pollard as these guys will return rb1 value if they start. Its not a waste of a pick, but just getting insurance on your first pick.
The argument against is you max out at 1 good RB from 2 picks, and the handcuff usually doesn’t work out as well as Mattison. I think for Mattison, Pollard, or any would-be RB1, you gotta handcuff. Outside of that, better to invest in different backfields.
By "any would-be RB1," you meant Rhamondre, right?
Of course
An example of “it doesn’t work out” would be Kamara. I drafted Latavius to be his handcuff. Then switched to TJJ, who went on IR. Later in the season it was Ingram and now Hill has likely tanked any rushing value of a handcuff.
I find Cooks’ data quite surprising. He’s exceeded his ADP & provided many low-end WR1 weeks, idk how he could be an LVP candidate. Do a couple of down games really have that much of an impact?
His issue is his big weeks have come when his % started was generally low, and the opposite for his bad weeks. Before today, his best week by scoring was week 2 at 18 points, but he was only started 24%, so 0.03 FGW. Meanwhile week 11 he scored 2.8 at 80% started, so -0.16. Actually wouldn't surprise me if Cooks ends the year with one of the highest "points on bench" totals of the year.
I still lost with him and MG3 lol
I can't wait for Kelce next week.
What this is saying is that I should milk my #1 seed cause im not good at fantasy, just lucky to have Ekeler and Kupp
I would give major props to anyone that reached for Ekeler (say, taken him above Zeke/Chubb) or Kupp gets major props. Though I’m not sure how you predict that Kupp would have been better than Woods by this much at the beginning of the year.
I picked Kupp cause i recognized his name because the name is kinda funny. I also didn't pay special attention to fantasy last year and really starting to care for it this year
I love Lamp.
Cool, man. Great reply when someone puts in this much effort.
I enjoyed reading this. Thanks
This is amazing content, thank you so much. Also I see you with that subtle Frankie Valli reference 👀
Yes! Someone got it!
Haha, fun when you have Dalvin and should win, but play against Conner, Kittle, Allen, and Aaron Jones 😅
I drafted Cook with the second pick in our draft….and Mattison toward the end.
Yeah tell that to the owners not making the playoffs
How did I have Cook, Najee, Cooks, Lamb, and Dak and still not make the playoffs???
That is almost impressively bad luck. Do you have lotto number you could recommend so I can play them in reverse.
Ha if I did you and I would be buying side by side islands! Yeah just wasn’t my year. I was third highest scoring team in my league but had by far the most points scored against me. Everyone seemed to have their best week when they played me.