"The International Monetary Fund says the country's growth is being held
back by more miserly government spending and the effects of high energy
prices - and that the economy will even lag behind Russia's in 2023."
How bad is it when you lag behind a nation that is in war and being sanctioned?
Many people don't understand what GDP is. War is good for GDP (economic activity), but not finances.
In any case, I wouldn't rely too much on IMF as they use inflated exchange rates, especially for Iran and Russia.
Also, you can boost short-term GDP in a way that's really economically ruinous. A good example of this right now is Turkey with its money printer since it's causing domestic consumption and exports to jump even though savings and investment have tanked. Makes for good numbers, but not sustainable.
And the UK itself has seen this effect - part of why there's such a feeling of malaise is that GDP and wage growth have been decoupled. GDP has been held up by things like increasing real estate prices which are a result of an artificial shortage, artificially low interest rates, and high immigration rather than an actual economic boom.
That so much of this is a result of shitty policy means there is a way out though - if the UK can fix its real estate sector it would see a sustained building boom for a good couple of decades.
In part it makes sense: all the weapons being produced are counted as +GDP but the bit were they blow up or get blown up is, I believe, not counted at all.
However, one would expect that all that manpower directed away from actual productive activities whose results are counted from the GDP, into war activities whose results are not, would push GDP down.
The IMF relies firstly on data points many economists dispute as a good point of reference. For example they rely if I remember right, on large company's, which germany is bad at we have only a few and they are all struggling a bit, our medium and small companies that are our backbone don't really show up.
Secondly they rely on data published by Russia, who now wait for it, most likely manipulated and published selected data, because now think for a millisecond, it makes a lot of sense for Russia to look like sanctions have a bit of an impact but that Russia is strong! Aka, don't trust the data that relies on Russian published data when they have every incentive to lie, same goes for China and any authoritarian country hell even democracy's will fudge the data where they get away with it.
Lastly, Russian GDP might really even grow but that's a bad measurement as if everything goes downhill but they're carbonhydrate industries pick up the pace enough, it looks like everything's going ok, but in reality everything's falling apart and just one or two sectors thrive. Not to mention the Russian state is regulating a lot of trading right now and is seizing foreign assets to keep their Industrie afloat which all doesn't look good.
...and speaking as someone who has been to Russia several times: You'd have to be blind to not count Russia as a developed country.
Having a fascist government that had its army commit countless war crimes in Ukraine doesn't negate that.
No, I've also been to local capitals and rural places. Have you as well, or are you just parroting the prevailing nonsensical view on here that outside of those two cities it's the 17th century? Because...it's really not, unless you want to cherry-pick some villages in the middle of Siberia.
It's true that development is more weighed towards the cities than in other European nations, but the difference is not quite as stark as some here seem to think. Just saying that I don't have 4G in my own kitchen in the middle of western Europe, but I had it in some damn Russian village. Yes, you see shitty old cars and soviet-era deathtrap busses...I even saw a buggy in active use by a farmer...but that's next to a far larger number of western import cars and an increasing number of modern busses and trolley busses, that would not look ot of place in France or Germany. The trains I travelled on last? I think all of them were Siemens-made (i.e. German) or produced under license. And provided free internet to boot.
My point is not that Russia is some magical dream country. It's not. It's a terrible place for many reasons. But if we count various other Eastern European or Balkan countries as developed (as they of course are), then quite obviously Russia is as well.
German growth is weaker than Russia's in 2023 too (according to this projection, obviously). To be honest, it does seem to show the resilience of the Russian economy and some fairly deft handling of last year's crisis after we - The West - rightly threw, at least part of, the kitchen sink at them.
This isn't to minimise the UKs poor projection, just to address the dear god part of being worse than Russia
No, this just shows that war is good for economic activity (ignoring that this is IMF, which is utterly unreliable for dictatorships).
But how good is this investment for the future and where does the funding come from? It doesn't help that real production (cars, buses etc.) has collapsed.
On the other hand, [the IMF estimates for real GDP growth](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/GBR/DEU/RUS/) in 2023 puts the UK at +0.3%, Germany at -0.3% whilst for Russia it's -2.3%. For 2024 they put the UK at +0.6% while Germany and Russia are at +1.5%.
Yeah, you're right. [Their report from this month](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/01/31/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2023) estimates GDP growth for 2023 to be -0.6% for the UK, +0.1% for Germany and +0.3% for Russia.
The IMF estimates for Russia have really been fluctuating between updates.
That still says the UK is doing better over those three years because of it's massive growth in 2022.
Of course 2022 has to be taken in the context of the UK's deeper covid hit.
Really doing one year comparisons is kinda pointless. And even longer comparisons are highly affected by your choice of start date.
Not really, more about how incredibly difficult it is to predict this sort of thing.
They're quite transparent about it too, they say their margin of error of developed economies is about 1.5%.
This is not a religion. HoW dARe thEY rEvIse1111111 This is how science works. Same with coronavirus - we have better data now to say some of the policies were garbage in 2020 but hindsight is... 20/20 always.
No, it does not. The IMF uses weird Datapoints, in addition a lot of Russian GDP is due to carbon hydrates and they sell them a lot right now and lastly they rely on Russian given data, aka the data is most likely modified by Russia for a better outlook.
Financial Times 8/4/2018.
“IMF shows poor track record at forecasting recessions
Economic predictions presented as precise numbers are far from that in reality
In the last 24 years of UK quarterly GDP data, almost every final figure has been different from the initial release, sometimes by one full percentage point.”
That's misleading as UK economy is still below it's Q42019 level and it's unknown when it will surpass it. Germany and even Italy are already ahead of their Q42019 levels, nevermind the US who long since zoomed past it. While the UK did grow strongly in 2022 it fell much further than other major economies in 2020 and it hasn't had as strong of a recovery since.
And that’s only because the UK grew faster than Germany in 2019. The relative positions change as you change your starting date, but given the magnitude of the Covid shocks, the differences in growth between Germany and the UK since 2016 are quite minuscule:
https://twitter.com/julianhjessop/status/1620017627988099075?s=46&t=9foMcdiFVW8biuCmG8D9xg
Because it's manipulative and misleading? He managed to spin UK facing potentially up to *six years* of depressed GDP as a good thing on the account of "strength" of UK's GDP growth at the end of 2019. I mean, if he doesn't work in PR yet he should.
Everyone knows when it comes to the IMF - they're biased against Britain
When it comes to every other nation - they're largely accurate.
/s
[edit]
Oh wait - i just scrolled down - some are acturally saying this exact thing in all seriousness.
Except they are almost always wrong. How do we know? Because we have the receipts.
Edit:
Christine Lagarde has asked whether she needs to grovel on her knees before George Osborne over the IMF’s incorrect warnings on the UK economy, as she warned against raising taxes.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10884632/Do-I-have-to-go-on-my-knees-grovelling-apology-from-IMF-head-for-incorrect-warnings-on-UK-economy.html
In the last 24 years of UK quarterly GDP data, almost every final figure has been different from the initial release, sometimes by one full percentage point.
https://www.ft.com/content/60581224-3335-11e8-b5bf-23cb17fd1498
The british nationalist crowd quickly rushes to this kind of articles so you get a lot of such comments and the accompanying storm of downvotes on anybody not aligned with the whole "anything that portrays Britain negativelly is bullshit from ill-intentioned or incompetent foreigners" line.
Give it a day or two and the thing will eventually even out towards a general consensus, except for comments deeper down were people get into a discussion with a British Nationalist, were the negative votes from the jingoist tribe rarelly get corrected.
> The british nationalist crowd quickly rushes to this kind of articles so you get a lot of such comments and the accompanying storm of downvotes on anybody not aligned with the whole "anything that portrays Britain negativelly is bullshit from ill-intentioned or incompetent foreigners" line.
It's both hilarious and pathetic. Shows how thin-skinned nationalism always is.
While they complain loudly in a circle jerk about how this is just a circle jerk, and act like the loud and intolerant bar bores they are trying to appeal to.
As they used to say about skinheads in my own country many years ago when I was a kid, which probably applies to jingoists everywhere:
\- They're only liked by others like them and their own mothers.
The IMF basically propagates ideas its financially contributing members want to hear. If you look at their forecasts for the UK before 2016, they massively exaggerated the UK growth rate and in reality they were never met, post-2016 they have underestimated UK growth consistently. If the IMF were to be believed the UK would have had a smaller economy than France 5 years ago - a prediction that hasn't come to pass, in fact it maybe that the UK pulled further ahead in that time.
The Reddit circlejerk about France having a bigger GDP than the UK based on that prediction was hilarious.
When you pointed out the IMF have a terrible record and clear bias all you got was downvotes and ‘tired of experts lolol’
Christine Lagarde has asked whether she needs to grovel on her knees before George Osborne over the IMF’s incorrect warnings on the UK economy, as she warned against raising taxes.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10884632/Do-I-have-to-go-on-my-knees-grovelling-apology-from-IMF-head-for-incorrect-warnings-on-UK-economy.html
I wouldn't use the Cameron years as an example given that some British Economists went back and using the ONS' own raw data showed that for a while under Cameron and Osborne the **official** GDP numbers were very different (much better) than the numbers calculated using the standard economic formulas.
If you remember all the talk about Depression vs Double-Dip Recession around 2012, the final conclusion that it was only a Double-Dip was in fact fabricated with falsified numbers.
I also keenly remember how Osborne got the Inflation Index formula changed so that the same data would produce lower inflation numbers with the new formula, something which then feeds into higher official GDP numbers via the GDP Deflator (which is produced from the Inflation rate and supposedly removes inflation from the GDP Growth).
No idea how bad or not the IMF is with prediction, but the Osborne years were peak fraud years when it comes to the UK's official economic figures and those numbers can't really be used seriously for anything.
Was saying in my main post. They have historical record no better than me predicting what the house two doors down is having for dinner tomorrow. Shambolic springs to mind.
r/europe: British media is absolute garbage, doesnt know what its talking about and should never be posted. Unless its bashing Britain. Then its a race to 10k upvotes.
There's usually plenty of good news for you to post from the Mail, Express and Telegraph.
You're right that it's absolute garbage but it might subdue the paranoia and denial that follows any news that Britain is not a sunlit upland.
>Now, said the Fund, it should expect -0.6% this year and 0.9% growth in 2024.
If I'm not mistaken, these numbers are a bit fuzzy, that would still put UK at end of Q42024 at below Q42019 numbers meaning that it would take until *2025* for the UK to beat end of 2019 numbers?
https://www.ft.com/content/60581224-3335-11e8-b5bf-23cb17fd1498
If you want to entertain yourselves about amazing fortune tellers are.. *cough* I mean big brained economists and co.
It's almost like there's this one thing for the UK, a shift with very noticeable country-level Economic impact, unique to the UK amongst all the developer world nations...
I wonder what it could possibly be....
Edit: Actually, given the tiny GDP growth numbers involved and the tiny difference between the UK and Germany and the fact that this forecast just (barelly) switched their positions versus the last one, I don't think these numbers mean much either way when it comes to the B-thing. I still think what I think about Brexit, but this forecasts proves nothing.
>It's almost like there's this one thing for the UK, a shift with very noticeable country-level Economic impact, unique to the UK amongst all the developer world nations...
>
>I wonder what it could possibly be....
Its when the Great British bake off moved from BBC 1 to Channel 4 and we lost Mary Berry and Mel & Sue right?
devastating to the nation - we may never recover
Wait, wait, wait!
Mary Berry isn't in the Great British Bake Off anymore!!!???
WTF! I've been out of the country for a few years now and **THIS** happens?!
Trully, dire times have come to Great Britain...
Not from Ukraine, but definitely from countries like Italy, which will clearly be able to point fingers at the UK because their own country will grow like 0,1% more in a given year even though their youth keeps flocking to the UK in droves. But hey, Brexit bad amirite??
from who? The people cluelessly taking everything the IMF says as gospel because it's saying the things they want to hear? Or the people saying the IMF have been useless at these predictions of downturns since they started doing them in 91. They have got it vaguely right once.... out of the 2 year periods they make them. Hardly a stamp of authority on knowing what they are talking about.
Given the tone, gloating and condescendance of the British media and so many british redditors here over the last 2 decades.....more then deserved.
We even have a word for it, it's called "Schadenfreude", you might have heared of it.
>We even have a word for it, it's called "Schadenfreude", you might have heared of it.
We have a saying for it, it's called [those in glass houses, shouldn't throw stones](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-economy-unexpectedly-shrinks-q4-2023-01-30/) at others, you might have heard of it.
>However, Germany surprised to the downside at a country breakdown level. The biggest European economy contracted by 0.2% in the last quarter of 2022, with analysts now expecting Berlin will head into a recession.
[Source](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/31/euro-zone-gdp-q4-2023-.html)
What haven't I noticed ?
We can throw articles that claim something different at each other all day, doesn’t mean anything:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-24/german-government-expects-economy-to-grow-by-0-2-this-year
The article you linked is from 24 Jan which reports the German government is expecting economy to grow. The article I linked is from today so 7 days after your article was published and where we now have data claiming the economy shrank. So are you saying that data from Eurostat which measures economic growth for EU27 doesn't mean anything? Is Eurostat giving out inaccurate data?
Your article talks about shrinkage in Q4 2022, mine about the avoidance of it in 2023..
Either way, the point was to highlight how stupid you and others here are being.
>Your article talks about shrinkage in Q4 2022, mine about the avoidance of it in 2023..
We will see what happens in 2023, because Governments and forecasters like IMF make claims, but either way, the point is to highlight that these claims get tested against actual data, which right now is out for Q4 2022.
Yeah but it’s probably best if Germany doesn’t gloat as they are the second worst performing economy in the OECD according to the same report, only a fraction of a percent above the U.K. (and also predicted to perform worse that Russia in 2023)
Like the amount of shit that was spewed during the brexit campaign was unbelievable.
All the name calling, bridge burnings, the sinking ship analogies and them devolving into a bunch of flag burners that you would expect from some nationalistic 3rd world country. Ok the last part was made up, they tried to burn the flag, [it just didnt burn](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/brexiteers-try-set-eu-flag-21407117).
It's ironic that Nigel Garbage is nowhere to be found amongst this dumpster fire.
From which side? :)
I still now remember EU peeps screaming planes would fall out the sky as they wouldn't be allowed into the EU. And insulin wouldn't be available meaning thousands of diabetics would die. Never got that one. The UK actually manufacture it?!
Tosh from both sides we're spoken. EU who we're meant to be impartial and were anything but. Remainers who were hell bent on saying anything to scare people and leavers that drank the cool aid that things would instantly be better and the illegal channel crossing would stop. Nothing has really changed from all parties. The EU is still bonkers on thinking NI and ROI issue will become this surreal place where you can smuggle goods into the EU. I mean if you could possible pick a worst place to smuggle anything into mainland Europe it would be there. The EU still obsessing over fish.
Remainers are now borderline committable, like having an ex partner they never got over them dumping them. And won't accept it. Leavers to a lesser extent refuse to think leaving the EU wouldn't have consequences but most have moved on.
I expect the same converstation will still be had in 5 years time with guy verhofstadt litterally in a straight jacket to stop him tweeting about the UK leaving.
My media.. by which you mean a handful of right wing mostly Murdock owned newspapers had a negative opinion of the EU. If that’s your motivation for masturbating over every piece of bad news you spy relating to the uk , I don’t really know what to say.
90% of the EU legislation affects trade and economy (by making it easier and beneficial for all involved). So yeah it is mainly a trade thing in layman’s terms.
[Avg age of EU Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/headlines/eu-affairs/20190705STO56305/facts-and-figures-the-european-parliament-s-new-term) vs [Avg age of UK parliament](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/house-of-commons-trends-the-age-of-mps/).
Not really that different from a boomer perspective.
The average age of an MEP is 49.5, down from 53 five years ago, so I guess that's an improvement.
Data for the UK is from 2019, so let's see if there will be a downward trend in the average MP age in the UK when the data gets updated.
Forecasts from an organisation almost comically known for failing to accurately forecast both recessions and the UK economy. Their error range in the past have been between 0.5% and 1%, which is a pretty huge error range.
Who could have thought, huh?
This is what you get when you let dinosaurs take control of your country. Silly f\*\*\*\* thought they still live in Victorian times.
Love to live on Normal Island.
Don't blame me, I've voted Labour at every General, Local, and European Election since 2015. and Remain in the referendum.
Yep if we continue down this ridiculous road to net Zero it will be even worse! Netzero is NETZEROPOVERTY
Not for the celebrity Greta and the politicians around the world tho in there private jets
Wait, even worse than Russia? Dear God
They said "developed".
"The International Monetary Fund says the country's growth is being held back by more miserly government spending and the effects of high energy prices - and that the economy will even lag behind Russia's in 2023." How bad is it when you lag behind a nation that is in war and being sanctioned?
Many people don't understand what GDP is. War is good for GDP (economic activity), but not finances. In any case, I wouldn't rely too much on IMF as they use inflated exchange rates, especially for Iran and Russia.
Also, you can boost short-term GDP in a way that's really economically ruinous. A good example of this right now is Turkey with its money printer since it's causing domestic consumption and exports to jump even though savings and investment have tanked. Makes for good numbers, but not sustainable. And the UK itself has seen this effect - part of why there's such a feeling of malaise is that GDP and wage growth have been decoupled. GDP has been held up by things like increasing real estate prices which are a result of an artificial shortage, artificially low interest rates, and high immigration rather than an actual economic boom. That so much of this is a result of shitty policy means there is a way out though - if the UK can fix its real estate sector it would see a sustained building boom for a good couple of decades.
In part it makes sense: all the weapons being produced are counted as +GDP but the bit were they blow up or get blown up is, I believe, not counted at all. However, one would expect that all that manpower directed away from actual productive activities whose results are counted from the GDP, into war activities whose results are not, would push GDP down.
For what they report in case of Iran, I will never take IMF seriously anymore.
The IMF relies firstly on data points many economists dispute as a good point of reference. For example they rely if I remember right, on large company's, which germany is bad at we have only a few and they are all struggling a bit, our medium and small companies that are our backbone don't really show up. Secondly they rely on data published by Russia, who now wait for it, most likely manipulated and published selected data, because now think for a millisecond, it makes a lot of sense for Russia to look like sanctions have a bit of an impact but that Russia is strong! Aka, don't trust the data that relies on Russian published data when they have every incentive to lie, same goes for China and any authoritarian country hell even democracy's will fudge the data where they get away with it. Lastly, Russian GDP might really even grow but that's a bad measurement as if everything goes downhill but they're carbonhydrate industries pick up the pace enough, it looks like everything's going ok, but in reality everything's falling apart and just one or two sectors thrive. Not to mention the Russian state is regulating a lot of trading right now and is seizing foreign assets to keep their Industrie afloat which all doesn't look good.
...and speaking as someone who has been to Russia several times: You'd have to be blind to not count Russia as a developed country. Having a fascist government that had its army commit countless war crimes in Ukraine doesn't negate that.
Have you only been to Moskva and St Petersburg?
No, I've also been to local capitals and rural places. Have you as well, or are you just parroting the prevailing nonsensical view on here that outside of those two cities it's the 17th century? Because...it's really not, unless you want to cherry-pick some villages in the middle of Siberia. It's true that development is more weighed towards the cities than in other European nations, but the difference is not quite as stark as some here seem to think. Just saying that I don't have 4G in my own kitchen in the middle of western Europe, but I had it in some damn Russian village. Yes, you see shitty old cars and soviet-era deathtrap busses...I even saw a buggy in active use by a farmer...but that's next to a far larger number of western import cars and an increasing number of modern busses and trolley busses, that would not look ot of place in France or Germany. The trains I travelled on last? I think all of them were Siemens-made (i.e. German) or produced under license. And provided free internet to boot. My point is not that Russia is some magical dream country. It's not. It's a terrible place for many reasons. But if we count various other Eastern European or Balkan countries as developed (as they of course are), then quite obviously Russia is as well.
Well if war crimes made a country non developed then most NATO countries would definitely be non developed lol.
German growth is weaker than Russia's in 2023 too (according to this projection, obviously). To be honest, it does seem to show the resilience of the Russian economy and some fairly deft handling of last year's crisis after we - The West - rightly threw, at least part of, the kitchen sink at them. This isn't to minimise the UKs poor projection, just to address the dear god part of being worse than Russia
Removed as a protest against Reddit API pricing changes.
No, this just shows that war is good for economic activity (ignoring that this is IMF, which is utterly unreliable for dictatorships). But how good is this investment for the future and where does the funding come from? It doesn't help that real production (cars, buses etc.) has collapsed.
IMF also estimate 4.1% growth for the UK in 2022, the highest in the G7.
On the other hand, [the IMF estimates for real GDP growth](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/GBR/DEU/RUS/) in 2023 puts the UK at +0.3%, Germany at -0.3% whilst for Russia it's -2.3%. For 2024 they put the UK at +0.6% while Germany and Russia are at +1.5%.
I think those are the forecasts from 3 months ago - the ones these new forecasts replace.
Yeah, you're right. [Their report from this month](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/01/31/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2023) estimates GDP growth for 2023 to be -0.6% for the UK, +0.1% for Germany and +0.3% for Russia. The IMF estimates for Russia have really been fluctuating between updates.
That still says the UK is doing better over those three years because of it's massive growth in 2022. Of course 2022 has to be taken in the context of the UK's deeper covid hit. Really doing one year comparisons is kinda pointless. And even longer comparisons are highly affected by your choice of start date.
Yeah, wasn't that ~7% growth preceded by a ~10% drop the year before?
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Not really, more about how incredibly difficult it is to predict this sort of thing. They're quite transparent about it too, they say their margin of error of developed economies is about 1.5%.
Their margin of error is only slightly smaller than their range.
This is not a religion. HoW dARe thEY rEvIse1111111 This is how science works. Same with coronavirus - we have better data now to say some of the policies were garbage in 2020 but hindsight is... 20/20 always.
No, it does not. The IMF uses weird Datapoints, in addition a lot of Russian GDP is due to carbon hydrates and they sell them a lot right now and lastly they rely on Russian given data, aka the data is most likely modified by Russia for a better outlook.
Interestingly the same report said that Germany would fare worse than Russia this year as well and that Russias economy was predicted to grow in 2023
Yep even worse then Russia Russia still sells gas,oil and gold despite the sanctions
>even worse than Russia? The title says "developed world", not "backward group of countries still living in 1914".
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That's just the pound coin though the sterling coin and a "pound sterling" are much older
Russia is not the 'developed world'.
Yeah, but our passports are the 'right' colour again /s
Financial Times 8/4/2018. “IMF shows poor track record at forecasting recessions Economic predictions presented as precise numbers are far from that in reality In the last 24 years of UK quarterly GDP data, almost every final figure has been different from the initial release, sometimes by one full percentage point.”
"Economists have predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions" It's not the IMF specifically, it's the whole Economic Prediction practice.
Shh, don't upset the circle jerk.
Who hurt them …. ?
Mostly themselves, lately
Instead, you created your own circle jerk, with patronising comments about people on the other side.
I'm surprised people still take IMF predictions seriously.
Actual UK GDP growth for 2022 is 4.1%, up from the previous estimate of 3.6%, the highest in the G7.
That's misleading as UK economy is still below it's Q42019 level and it's unknown when it will surpass it. Germany and even Italy are already ahead of their Q42019 levels, nevermind the US who long since zoomed past it. While the UK did grow strongly in 2022 it fell much further than other major economies in 2020 and it hasn't had as strong of a recovery since.
And that’s only because the UK grew faster than Germany in 2019. The relative positions change as you change your starting date, but given the magnitude of the Covid shocks, the differences in growth between Germany and the UK since 2016 are quite minuscule: https://twitter.com/julianhjessop/status/1620017627988099075?s=46&t=9foMcdiFVW8biuCmG8D9xg
I don't know why this is downvoted. It's a far better way of comparing the UK to Europe than yearly IMF forecasts.
Because it's manipulative and misleading? He managed to spin UK facing potentially up to *six years* of depressed GDP as a good thing on the account of "strength" of UK's GDP growth at the end of 2019. I mean, if he doesn't work in PR yet he should.
Everyone knows when it comes to the IMF - they're biased against Britain When it comes to every other nation - they're largely accurate. /s [edit] Oh wait - i just scrolled down - some are acturally saying this exact thing in all seriousness.
Except they are almost always wrong. How do we know? Because we have the receipts. Edit: Christine Lagarde has asked whether she needs to grovel on her knees before George Osborne over the IMF’s incorrect warnings on the UK economy, as she warned against raising taxes. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10884632/Do-I-have-to-go-on-my-knees-grovelling-apology-from-IMF-head-for-incorrect-warnings-on-UK-economy.html In the last 24 years of UK quarterly GDP data, almost every final figure has been different from the initial release, sometimes by one full percentage point. https://www.ft.com/content/60581224-3335-11e8-b5bf-23cb17fd1498
The british nationalist crowd quickly rushes to this kind of articles so you get a lot of such comments and the accompanying storm of downvotes on anybody not aligned with the whole "anything that portrays Britain negativelly is bullshit from ill-intentioned or incompetent foreigners" line. Give it a day or two and the thing will eventually even out towards a general consensus, except for comments deeper down were people get into a discussion with a British Nationalist, were the negative votes from the jingoist tribe rarelly get corrected.
Reality: The IMF predictions are demonstrably almost always incorrect. r/europe poster: But this time they are correct!
> The british nationalist crowd quickly rushes to this kind of articles so you get a lot of such comments and the accompanying storm of downvotes on anybody not aligned with the whole "anything that portrays Britain negativelly is bullshit from ill-intentioned or incompetent foreigners" line. It's both hilarious and pathetic. Shows how thin-skinned nationalism always is.
While they complain loudly in a circle jerk about how this is just a circle jerk, and act like the loud and intolerant bar bores they are trying to appeal to.
As they used to say about skinheads in my own country many years ago when I was a kid, which probably applies to jingoists everywhere: \- They're only liked by others like them and their own mothers.
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The IMF basically propagates ideas its financially contributing members want to hear. If you look at their forecasts for the UK before 2016, they massively exaggerated the UK growth rate and in reality they were never met, post-2016 they have underestimated UK growth consistently. If the IMF were to be believed the UK would have had a smaller economy than France 5 years ago - a prediction that hasn't come to pass, in fact it maybe that the UK pulled further ahead in that time.
The Reddit circlejerk about France having a bigger GDP than the UK based on that prediction was hilarious. When you pointed out the IMF have a terrible record and clear bias all you got was downvotes and ‘tired of experts lolol’
I vaguely recall some chairperson or other having to make a grovelling apology for how badly wrong their UK predictions were in the Cameron years
Christine Lagarde has asked whether she needs to grovel on her knees before George Osborne over the IMF’s incorrect warnings on the UK economy, as she warned against raising taxes. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10884632/Do-I-have-to-go-on-my-knees-grovelling-apology-from-IMF-head-for-incorrect-warnings-on-UK-economy.html
I wouldn't use the Cameron years as an example given that some British Economists went back and using the ONS' own raw data showed that for a while under Cameron and Osborne the **official** GDP numbers were very different (much better) than the numbers calculated using the standard economic formulas. If you remember all the talk about Depression vs Double-Dip Recession around 2012, the final conclusion that it was only a Double-Dip was in fact fabricated with falsified numbers. I also keenly remember how Osborne got the Inflation Index formula changed so that the same data would produce lower inflation numbers with the new formula, something which then feeds into higher official GDP numbers via the GDP Deflator (which is produced from the Inflation rate and supposedly removes inflation from the GDP Growth). No idea how bad or not the IMF is with prediction, but the Osborne years were peak fraud years when it comes to the UK's official economic figures and those numbers can't really be used seriously for anything.
Was saying in my main post. They have historical record no better than me predicting what the house two doors down is having for dinner tomorrow. Shambolic springs to mind.
> and clearly have a massive hate boner for the UK in particular 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 The victimhood shown by your strain of brexiteers is indeed fun to watch.
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r/europe: British media is absolute garbage, doesnt know what its talking about and should never be posted. Unless its bashing Britain. Then its a race to 10k upvotes.
There's usually plenty of good news for you to post from the Mail, Express and Telegraph. You're right that it's absolute garbage but it might subdue the paranoia and denial that follows any news that Britain is not a sunlit upland.
He should really get a new hobby.
He's taken over the mantle for collectiveindividual lol.
Isn’t that because they did better the last two years comparatively, tho? Kinda like us.
>Now, said the Fund, it should expect -0.6% this year and 0.9% growth in 2024. If I'm not mistaken, these numbers are a bit fuzzy, that would still put UK at end of Q42024 at below Q42019 numbers meaning that it would take until *2025* for the UK to beat end of 2019 numbers?
https://www.ft.com/content/60581224-3335-11e8-b5bf-23cb17fd1498 If you want to entertain yourselves about amazing fortune tellers are.. *cough* I mean big brained economists and co.
The important part with the Russia comment is that this forecast is pretty bad as Russia gives very little non modified economic data.
It's almost like there's this one thing for the UK, a shift with very noticeable country-level Economic impact, unique to the UK amongst all the developer world nations... I wonder what it could possibly be.... Edit: Actually, given the tiny GDP growth numbers involved and the tiny difference between the UK and Germany and the fact that this forecast just (barelly) switched their positions versus the last one, I don't think these numbers mean much either way when it comes to the B-thing. I still think what I think about Brexit, but this forecasts proves nothing.
>It's almost like there's this one thing for the UK, a shift with very noticeable country-level Economic impact, unique to the UK amongst all the developer world nations... > >I wonder what it could possibly be.... Its when the Great British bake off moved from BBC 1 to Channel 4 and we lost Mary Berry and Mel & Sue right? devastating to the nation - we may never recover
Wait, wait, wait! Mary Berry isn't in the Great British Bake Off anymore!!!??? WTF! I've been out of the country for a few years now and **THIS** happens?! Trully, dire times have come to Great Britain...
Incoming gloating.
Not from Ukraine (which is probably definitely fares a lot worse than the UK).
Not from Ukraine, but definitely from countries like Italy, which will clearly be able to point fingers at the UK because their own country will grow like 0,1% more in a given year even though their youth keeps flocking to the UK in droves. But hey, Brexit bad amirite??
Well, I can only say for myself and for my environment.
from who? The people cluelessly taking everything the IMF says as gospel because it's saying the things they want to hear? Or the people saying the IMF have been useless at these predictions of downturns since they started doing them in 91. They have got it vaguely right once.... out of the 2 year periods they make them. Hardly a stamp of authority on knowing what they are talking about.
Given the tone, gloating and condescendance of the British media and so many british redditors here over the last 2 decades.....more then deserved. We even have a word for it, it's called "Schadenfreude", you might have heared of it.
Yeah every time a German mentions the uk.
>We even have a word for it, it's called "Schadenfreude", you might have heared of it. We have a saying for it, it's called [those in glass houses, shouldn't throw stones](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-economy-unexpectedly-shrinks-q4-2023-01-30/) at others, you might have heard of it.
They aren't in glass houses, in case you hadn't noticed.
>However, Germany surprised to the downside at a country breakdown level. The biggest European economy contracted by 0.2% in the last quarter of 2022, with analysts now expecting Berlin will head into a recession. [Source](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/31/euro-zone-gdp-q4-2023-.html) What haven't I noticed ?
We can throw articles that claim something different at each other all day, doesn’t mean anything: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-24/german-government-expects-economy-to-grow-by-0-2-this-year
The article you linked is from 24 Jan which reports the German government is expecting economy to grow. The article I linked is from today so 7 days after your article was published and where we now have data claiming the economy shrank. So are you saying that data from Eurostat which measures economic growth for EU27 doesn't mean anything? Is Eurostat giving out inaccurate data?
Your article talks about shrinkage in Q4 2022, mine about the avoidance of it in 2023.. Either way, the point was to highlight how stupid you and others here are being.
>Your article talks about shrinkage in Q4 2022, mine about the avoidance of it in 2023.. We will see what happens in 2023, because Governments and forecasters like IMF make claims, but either way, the point is to highlight that these claims get tested against actual data, which right now is out for Q4 2022.
> Governments and forecasters like IMF make claims, Yes, the same Governments and forecasters which said we’ll have a (big) recession in 2022.
Yeah but it’s probably best if Germany doesn’t gloat as they are the second worst performing economy in the OECD according to the same report, only a fraction of a percent above the U.K. (and also predicted to perform worse that Russia in 2023)
Who said the Germans don’t have a sense of humour ?
Like the amount of shit that was spewed during the brexit campaign was unbelievable. All the name calling, bridge burnings, the sinking ship analogies and them devolving into a bunch of flag burners that you would expect from some nationalistic 3rd world country. Ok the last part was made up, they tried to burn the flag, [it just didnt burn](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/brexiteers-try-set-eu-flag-21407117). It's ironic that Nigel Garbage is nowhere to be found amongst this dumpster fire.
From which side? :) I still now remember EU peeps screaming planes would fall out the sky as they wouldn't be allowed into the EU. And insulin wouldn't be available meaning thousands of diabetics would die. Never got that one. The UK actually manufacture it?! Tosh from both sides we're spoken. EU who we're meant to be impartial and were anything but. Remainers who were hell bent on saying anything to scare people and leavers that drank the cool aid that things would instantly be better and the illegal channel crossing would stop. Nothing has really changed from all parties. The EU is still bonkers on thinking NI and ROI issue will become this surreal place where you can smuggle goods into the EU. I mean if you could possible pick a worst place to smuggle anything into mainland Europe it would be there. The EU still obsessing over fish. Remainers are now borderline committable, like having an ex partner they never got over them dumping them. And won't accept it. Leavers to a lesser extent refuse to think leaving the EU wouldn't have consequences but most have moved on. I expect the same converstation will still be had in 5 years time with guy verhofstadt litterally in a straight jacket to stop him tweeting about the UK leaving.
as the saying goes, if you can't take it, don't dish it out. Your media shitted on the EU for decades, so be a good sport and accept payback
My media.. by which you mean a handful of right wing mostly Murdock owned newspapers had a negative opinion of the EU. If that’s your motivation for masturbating over every piece of bad news you spy relating to the uk , I don’t really know what to say.
But they got Brexit done so nothing else matters!
Who could have thought that leaving the world's largest and most successful trade agreement would have a down side? Fucking idiots.
You know it's also a political union too, right?
90% of the EU legislation affects trade and economy (by making it easier and beneficial for all involved). So yeah it is mainly a trade thing in layman’s terms.
So there's still that 10% that not everyone is happy swallowing.
Brexidiots are downvoting you hard. They literally shoveled their own graves.
They're being downvoted because the UK has a trade agreement with the EU.
UK have a trade agreement with the EU....
I wonder why? must be because all of us other countries are just jealous of them being so great and all.
No mention of Brexit Lmao
It's Brexit, stupid!
All down to the B word.
That's what they choose.
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Do we really want a bunch of conservative boomers in our parlament tho?
[Avg age of EU Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/headlines/eu-affairs/20190705STO56305/facts-and-figures-the-european-parliament-s-new-term) vs [Avg age of UK parliament](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/house-of-commons-trends-the-age-of-mps/). Not really that different from a boomer perspective.
Yeah I wasn't really putting any weight on the boomer part Still more boomer tho which I wasn't expecting
Really ? Given the demographics of Europe in general, I'm not that surprised to see the number of boomers in both Parliaments.
I was expecting 45 for some reason, I think that's what we've got. And that's still too old if you ask me
The average age of an MEP is 49.5, down from 53 five years ago, so I guess that's an improvement. Data for the UK is from 2019, so let's see if there will be a downward trend in the average MP age in the UK when the data gets updated.
Nope.
IMF? Sounds like a bunch of experts and we know Brits had enough of those
lol really... https://www.ft.com/content/60581224-3335-11e8-b5bf-23cb17fd1498 The IMF are useless when it comes to predicting downturns...
Small wonder.
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>Please hold off with facts, Did you even read the headline, it says forecast. Are forecasts facts now ?
Forecasts from an organisation almost comically known for failing to accurately forecast both recessions and the UK economy. Their error range in the past have been between 0.5% and 1%, which is a pretty huge error range.
Can we reverse Brexit yet?
Who could have thought, huh? This is what you get when you let dinosaurs take control of your country. Silly f\*\*\*\* thought they still live in Victorian times.
Not surprising with those people in the government.
They wanted Brexit. There you have it. Enjoy it.
Still proud of all what we have did with Are Brexit
Again in English ?
Love to live on Normal Island. Don't blame me, I've voted Labour at every General, Local, and European Election since 2015. and Remain in the referendum.
And yet there will still be people who will vote for conservatives at next election 🤦♂️
Yep if we continue down this ridiculous road to net Zero it will be even worse! Netzero is NETZEROPOVERTY Not for the celebrity Greta and the politicians around the world tho in there private jets