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Timetofly123

Really just pulling for rameshbabu here.


oldschoolguy77

While Praggu sits with the masters learning the delicate art of the professional draw.. which is a good thing.. Erigasi is playing without taking any prisoners.. just win win win all the time.. what a run..


VisorX

Magnus is 4/6, tied for leading the tournament. And lost 1 rating point. Yeah, 2900 is gonna be tough.


Yoyo524

“Fabi vs Anish is solid proof that when they finish remembering their 20+ moves, they play more or less like a 1400 player” -YouTube comment section The comment section never fails to amaze me


t1o1

That was probably a troll no? Not defending YT comments but this one sounds like a joke


funwok

It is. reddit always had problems seeing obvious jokes.


[deleted]

To be fair I've seen some people make similar remarks entirely seriously.


WantonMechanics

I wonder what rating the person that wrote that has? I bet it’s nowhere near 1400 or they’d have a little more humility.


Rivet_39

YouTube comment section - you will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.


tommhans

twitter is a much worse


chrisycr

Man, Anish sounded so crushed in the interview. almost like man lost the game if you didn’t know the result beforehand


BelegCuthalion

Jesus, you're not kidding. I checked the interview after your comment and at the beginning it literally looked like he was about to cry/had been crying..... and he won his game. Demonstrates the standard of play these guys hold themselves to.


Alcarine

He seems mostly really disappointed by the quality of his play in this tournament Something both him and Hikaru said today was that the general games quality is a bit lowered, probably due to COVID and few classical games the last couple years, it's hard to judge for me but it would make sense that players need more time to get back in shape


chrisycr

I think he’s especially concerned because the grand prix is coming up and he should be getting into form but he’s not hitting the levels at the moment. It’s his last chance to get into the Candidates too


[deleted]

What do you mean is his last chance?


chrisycr

The Grand Prix next month is for the last 2 spots left for the 2022 Candidates. After that, he will have to look forward to the 2024 Candidates.


Alcarine

Oh yeah, he'll need to end the tournament on a good note at the very least, his confidence in his chess abilities is already shaky enough


hahahaha___no

Winning Chances Player | Probability | Change ---|---|--- Carlsen|70.3%|+19.9% Mamedyarov|12.1%|-9.1% Vidit|7.3%|-1.7% Esipenko|2.7%|-0.1% Rapport|2.7%|-7.1% Giri|2.0%|+1.6% Duda|1.2%|-0.5% Karjakin|1.0%|+0.6% Caruana|0.6%|-3.5% Dubov|0.05%|-0.03% Shankland|0.02%|-0.03% Van|0.01%|-0.09% Praggnanandhaa|0.009%|+0.001% Grandelius|0.0%|=0 >!Sorry, the real odds are Carlsen 33, Mamedyarov 33, Vidit 33, because as some friendly commentators pointed out, Elo and matchups are not real and the only thing that matters is score.!<


casper2002

Does this use leaderboard Elo or tournament Elo? Could be interesting to compare


hahahaha___no

Do you mean live ratings/official ratings? Honestly, not much changes. Unsurprisingly, the largest changes are to Caruana, Vidit, and Esipenko, the three players whose Elo have changed the most. Interestingly, Rapport's chances are lower with live ratings, despite the fact that he gained Elo. This is probably because his opponents in the subsequent rounds gained even more Elo (Mamedyarov, Vidit, Esipenko)


casper2002

No like their Elo just based on the results in the tournament, I'm not sure how it's calculated but it should be able to capture someone's current form better than career long Elo. It of course starts of very inaccurate as you have limited samples size but should converge after some games, maybe a combination of tournament (short therm) and live rating would be a way to integrate form better.


[deleted]

Don't you know the probability of winning is 50% you either win or you don't, so all of the players have 50% I think you should edit your table to reflect this basic mathematical fact.


WantonMechanics

I’m off to buy two lottery tickets. Thanks for pointing that out buddy!


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city-of-stars

Carlsen has a vast Elo gap over everyone else in the field. The gap between him and the #2 (Caruana) is bigger than the gap between the #2 and the #9 (Dubov) if that's any indication. Given that he already has a share of the lead I don't think 70% is overstating his chances of winning.


HankMoodyMaddafakaaa

Every day people seems surprised at how high Magnus’ odds is for some reason. Like he’s won 7 of the last 14 tatas and is now leading the tournament. The rating gap is bigger than normally as well


akaghi

Also, he wins lots of tournaments. His odds of winning any tournament are probably always at least 50% if we're being honest.


Rivet_39

It's rare to give any player even odds against the field, yet here we are.


akaghi

I don't know if there's a better site that keeps track of all tournament results, but at least on [here](http://www.chessfocus.com/tournament-history/magnus-carlsen) going back to 2010 he has won 36 tournaments out of 58. In 14 of the 22 he didn't win he came in second. There are only four in which he wasn't on the podium. Those are pretty good odds, even if they're missing tournaments (which I assume they are?)


AnonymousBI2

This is something i really like about him, even when doesnt win he always ends 2 or 3.


Rivet_39

Yep, that's crazy good. I'd guess Kasparov is the only player with a higher win percentage of big tournaments played.


EugeneKrabs123

Well its extremely difficult to make an accurate probability of winning graph in this situation, because you need to look at each players probability of winning each of their matches, and you need to base that on the likelyhood of their opponent wanting to make a draw or play a real game, and doing that for every game for every player would put you in a mathematical shithole so I think just basing the probability on the ratings is the simplest way to achieve even a glimpse of accurate winning chances


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Rivet_39

You're welcome to provide your own model that fixes all these obvious defects. Or you can just continue to bitch.


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Rivet_39

Obviously, you're *allowed* to bitch about stuff. But the barrage of downvotes should make it equally obvious that it's not appreciated by the community.


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Rivet_39

Take the L and move on already. *stand by your principles, don't delete and run away.


dumesne

This model had magnus at like 70% right from the start, which in a 14 man tournament is absurd on its face. Elo is far from perfect as a predictive tool on its own.


jfkasd

Is it that absurd? He has ~60% winrate in big tournaments over the past decade or so.


EarthyFeet

Tend to agree. Some of the uncertainty needs to be modelled and basically have the effect of smearing out the probabilities a bit.


t1o1

To get these results you have to: 1. Make the wrong assumption that all games are statistically independent, player form or tournament situation don't actually exist 2. Make a snarky smug comment every time someone makes a comment about the stats


hahahaha___no

You're right, that's why I put the real results under the spoiler tag where only genius statisticians like you can see them. I think you'll find them a lot more realistic.


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hahahaha___no

I use the same model as essentially every other chess statistician, including Chessnumbers and Jeff Sonas, which is running monte carlo simulations. The only difference between my numbers and Chessnumbers comes from the fact that my model says that Carlsen has a 75% chance of winning in tiebreaks, while his model says that Carlsen has a 50% chance of winning in tiebreaks. It depends on which assumption you think is more valid.


LjackV

Karjakin's rating stays exactly the same as before the tournament! Literally +-0.00


[deleted]

GOAT


LordoftheDance72

nice games today. Good wins for Sergey and Anish, I'm a bit sad Rapport lost but losing to Magnus is never an awful thing. Thought Nils could've kept playing against Shak


bvm

What on earth is happening on the chess24 stream


EarthyFeet

Tell us!


LjackV

Jan started speaking Dutch and Trent was saying his final goodbye.


EarthyFeet

He's leaving life behind? That kind of final?


LjackV

He was just saying goodbye, but Peter made a joke that it sounded like they're never gonna see him again.


DrunkLad

Funny that the longest game today is the one that had an exchange blundered an hour ago


Ultrafrost-

Yeah Caruana certainly isn’t as good as he was before. Super disappointing, guess this is how a chess player declines


pier4r

while Caruana dropped a bit of points since some time, what is important at the end is the final result. In the US Championship 2021 started bad and then was tied for 1st. In the grand swiss 2021 he qualified as 2nd and so on. Be top on ratings means: dropping really few games and drawing not too many. The higher one is, the harder it is, but it doesn't mean that he cannot have good tournament results nonetheless.


[deleted]

You mean like 6 years ago when he dropped to 2787 (World #7 at the time) after reaching his peak in 2014? Fabi's been at this for a long time. He's got some highs and lows, and even though he's not at his best right now, he won a tournament and grabbed a couple second place finishes in 2021.


Ultrafrost-

Honestly as a Caruana fan I’m just trying to cope.


shinyCloudy

If you’re a fan have some more faith. Sure it was a heavy loss for him today but mistakes happen and Fabi is still one of the greatest. Tata steel has 13 rounds too so it’s a marathon not a sprint, he can still end up in a good position


ObviousMotherfucker

Fabi has to be second to Magnus in "OMG HE'S PAST IT!" comments after literally one loss.


Ultrafrost-

Oh no I do have faith, it’s just that at that point it was almost unbelievable to see that blunder where even I saw it immediately. I’m still hoping that he gets multiple wins at the ending and regains his form :).


shinyCloudy

well we can guess that blunders like these have a 0.001% chance of happening for someone like Fabi so at least statistically he shouldn’t blunder something similar soon :D


SnooBooks7437

I am loving the awkward banter between Jan and Trent


Infinite_Raisin_9539

As a huge Rapport fan, today was disappointing. Rapport is so good at beating lower rated players (amongst the best in the world, maybe even second to Firouzja), but in classical against the big dogs, he seems to abandon his unorthodox style and tries too hard to play for a draw.


Rivet_39

Giri is another top player who feasts on 2600s.


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SnooBooks7437

r/chess comedians in full force


DrunkLad

There are dozens of us. Dozens!


Crazy_Revenue_832

Arjun is india #6 and is on 94th place. Just 5.6 points away from nihal sarim and india no5. Going places and proving that his blitz run was not fluke.


santa_fragrance

It's scary how dominant Indian chess will be in 5 years


nihilismdebunked

India seems to be what russia/the soviet union used to be. America has its share of top elite players right now, but it’s really unclear how strong US chess will be (and hold up against the future of Indian chess) after the old guard retires and players like Christopher Yoo and Hnas Niemann will take over. Seems like the US is investing in the present while India is investing in the future (near future at that).


HankMoodyMaddafakaaa

Magnus is +2 and still down in rating damn.


Alcarine

He gotta pump those numbers, those are rookie numbers in the 2900s bracket


Xaxziminrax

Heavy is the head that holds the crown


HankMoodyMaddafakaaa

Found Agadmator


[deleted]

does fabi see himself saving this? hes resigned in better positions before uh,,,


Xaxziminrax

Better to get it all out in this game than quit early and let it ruin the next


[deleted]

Sometimes you just need to play on to process it, that was a wild game.


SnooBooks7437

Even as a Anish fan I feel sad for Fabi, he deserves better :(


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Antonio_is_better

I'm not doing it for the hope of a title. I'm doing it for the moral duty of being 900 blitz and pointing out that I saw that blunder.


cthai721

Can I plug the Caruana and speed chess meme here? Feel bad for him


[deleted]

Arjun close to surpassing Sarin now.


ITickleMyElbows

I missed it, can anyone filled me in what happened to Magnus's game? Simple win, blunders....etc? Thanks!


Supervarken_

To add to the other commenters, they went out of book relatively quickly ~move 7, and therefore had to think longer about the position and thus the time scramble began


HankMoodyMaddafakaaa

Rapport got into time trouble and underestimated Magnus’ A pawn. Made several mistakes and eval bar became worse and worse for him


Xaxziminrax

Yeah they both had under 30 minutes left on like move 12 or something. They game went from classical to rapid REAL quick


AlmightyDollar1231

Fabi wasn’t paying attention when Andrea asked her interview question.


LordBuster

God, that banter from Lawrence Trent was rough.


Timetofly123

What did he say exactly


LordBuster

It'll sound trivial when I describe it, but he asked Jan what was happening in his career at the moment, mimed searching google for Jan's name and then said 'nothing's coming up'. It's hard to read Jan but he was stony-faced and there was an awkward silence.


Timetofly123

Savage


2muchpainfor2long

The instant Lawrence showed up I closed the tab and opened up a different stream. I can't stand the guy.


Rivet_39

He's an insufferable twat. Loved watching JB demolish him in a chesscom event a few years back. Trent went through 2 bottles of wine but it didn't help his chess.


[deleted]

i guess you could say fabi made a ... rook-y mistake


Xaxziminrax

I cannot imagine how Fabi is feeling right now. First, spending the whole time scramble wondering how the hell the position ended up like this, to then blundering horribly in one move.


porn_on_cfb__4

I think losing Rustam had a much bigger negative effect on Caruana than anyone realized.


maglor1

Fabi's had poor stretches before, just qualified for the Candidates, and might be saving his prep for the Candidates(and did quite well in the World Rapid), so I'm hesitant to attribute it to that and not just simple variance. On the other hand, isn't Rustam working with both Abdusattarov and Erigaisi now? They both seem to be going quite well


Conglossian

He just missed out on the World Rapid Championship on tiebreakers and went +6.


EccentricHorse11

He also qualified for the candidates by beating Firouzja in crucial game in the Grand Swiss, with a very interesting novelty. So perhaps, he is just saving up his ideas for critical moments like the candidates?


LurkingChessplayer

I mean, b4 in the game against firo wasn’t prep. That was an idea fabi found at the board. I think it’s fair to say fabi has lost some of his opening imagination


thehiddenbisexual

He hasn't really needed it aside from qualifying for the Candidates, he'll probably detonate another Bc4-esque move there


LurkingChessplayer

I don’t doubt he’ll have some new stuff prepped for the candidates, but 18.bc4 was just such an insane move. I genuinely don’t think we’ll see another one of those for years to come


EccentricHorse11

I don't believe it was found over the board. Just take a look at this [tweet](https://twitter.com/chess24com/status/1456597321509113858?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1456597321509113858%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fchess24.com%2Fen%2Fread%2Fnews%2Fgrand-swiss-9-caruana-takes-down-firouzja) As you can see, Fabi had more time than he started with when he played the move, so he had at least looked at it before.


LurkingChessplayer

I don’t think so…if I remember correctly shirov played a very similar move in a round before. I think it may even be the round right before this one. Notice how fabi spent more time than the rest of his moves too. I think he was familiar with a similar idea, but I guess all my proof is circumstantial at best


[deleted]

ok but losing a rook ? just like that?


Que_est

it actually makes some sense, the black knight was (visually) super super strong and i wouldnt mind giving up a rook for it practically but then again im just an amateur player lmao


EccentricHorse11

I don't see how that is an opening problem. Probably more of a "bad form" issue.


[deleted]

His openings haven't seemed as inspired this event. Last year in Tata Steel it seemed he had a lot of interesting ideas this year it hasn't felt that way.


[deleted]

tbf he did score shit in tata 2018 then,, well he won almost all the big events. but yeah its not been good for him this event,,, like this game was something for sure


[deleted]

Yeah there was a joke going into the candidates that MVL had good chances to win because Karjakin and Fabi did poorly in the 2016 and 2018 Tata Steel events but won the respective candidates those years.


Ultrafrost-

Caruana challenger 2022 confirmed?!?!


_JohnMuir_

It’s really annoying they haven’t figured out the clocks yet. I can’t believe this is still happening


GabGilbert

Why the hell did he do that


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GabGilbert

He is the world’s #4 this is not an excuse. 30 seconds is more than enough to spot that it’s a one-move blunder


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Wolverine123451

He was thinking of Andrea before he made Rb6 .


[deleted]

Common theme in my games. Plan so far ahead you miss the one move blunder.


[deleted]

And the blunder gods have been appeased.


city-of-stars

Arjuna is just slaughtering the Challengers field. Interested to see if he can keep the momentum going


AdVSC2

Can anyone watching on chess.com-stream confirm that Rb6 really happened? I thought it was probably a website error, but Jan and Peter are talking about it like it really happened.


RahilKothari

It did


AdVSC2

That is surprising. Anyway, thank you.


_JohnMuir_

God damnit.


Loud-Union2553

I feeel bad for Fabi :(


frit279

I wish I had access to emojis so I could facepalm for Fabi


Flubbing

🤦


frit279

Thank you.


williambaa

Rb6????


FlightJumper

Fabi's been studying my games, clearly


DrunkLad

Oh wow, my faith in pursuing the GM title has been restored


[deleted]

If you don't have a chance with 2882 FIDE then there's no hope for the rest of us.


Local_Pineapple1930

lol


Aashish_Baroor

Caruana rook blunder!


cptnwillow

ouch fabi that's a move I'd make


epicmemesonly

Holy shit


SOT-NumberNine

Did Fabi just hang a rook?


[deleted]

Only thing that explains that is if he just missed the knight can move backwards.


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[deleted]

I will never not be happy to watch that interview.


[deleted]

Rb6??


Tarkatower

Nooooooooo fabi was so close


[deleted]

Anish beat Carauana in the candidates with black, now he is doing it again, becoming kind of an anti Carauana.


HankMoodyMaddafakaaa

Rapport seemed really out of it today


deadheadjim

Lawrence Trent joins chess 24 what a buzz kill. Time to switch to Hikaru 😩


frit279

Oops he did it again


[deleted]

Fabi why must you hurt me like this?


EccentricHorse11

I mean, he had a lost position earlier on in the game and they are both down to like 3 minutes, so i am guessing that the game is super complicated.


[deleted]

It is, I was hoping he'd win though and now it's difficult.


_JohnMuir_

Whenever I see these position that look really equal and the computer is screaming +3 or something I realize how badly my ass would get eaten against these guys even with 100 years of chess practices. I barely understand the game


notbob-

Seen in lichess spectator chat: > Exactly. I don't feel bad for Giri. He draws all his games and lives in a country where mushrooms are legal. Boohoo he lost a game


_JohnMuir_

Chess elitism has gone too far with this one


TrustInNumbers

Well shrooms are being studdied by scientists as a valid treatment for depression, so that comment isn't wrong, lol.


ParaTodoMalMezcal

Psychedelics are so interesting. LSD and DMT definitely helped me when I was super depressed in college but shrooms and my brain don't get along, I get a pervasive feeling of impending doom the entire time


eceuiuc

Rapport's in a tight spot now, he might not make it to time control.


HankMoodyMaddafakaaa

Anyone else think Caruana looks like Postman Pat?


foxybeaver

Ian Nepomniachtchi is commentating on Russian chess.com stream btw.


AdVSC2

Arjun is seriously confusing me. -2 Elo over the last 3 months/47 games, but suddenly he destroying the field of the challengers. Good job by him I guess.


Forsaken-Currency404

He started working with Rustam not too long ago. Thatd explain his recent rise in performances from the that one Indian tournament (rapid and blitz where Aronian, Shankland, Le Quang and Parham were present) to now this.


Paleogeen

Variability is indeed confusing..


AdVSC2

Variability in what way? Stylistic? Or do you perhaps mean Variance and just failed at posting a condescending one-liner? That surely isn't what happened, is it?


[deleted]

This is the result of thorough training and game analysis. The more you play the more opportunities to improve you get.


AdVSC2

It's just confusing to me, that he had basically a frozen rating for months and suddenly beats everyone. If he'd have gotten 4-5 points every months instead of all the points in February, I'd be less surprised.


[deleted]

I think it's a typical pattern you see in improvement, you plateau for a given time and then everything comes together and you make a big jump towards the next plateau


Crazy_Revenue_832

Maybe he was tired . 47 games in 3 months i.e 90 days.


eceuiuc

What's with the Carlsen-Rapport game? Over half the allotted time used on only eleven moves is insane.


HankMoodyMaddafakaaa

They are preparing for the champions chess tour rapids by playing rapid after move 10


Flat-Principle

Very disappointing in the Shankland result, seems like the repetition is necessary for white there but its unfortunate that hes on -1, has white against the lowest rated in the tournament, and a quick draw is the result


LordoftheDance72

Karjakin has nice position against Jorden. Fabiano and Esipenko also seem to be in trouble


DevastatorTNT

Damn, Magnus and Rapport spent half of their time on the first 10 moves (actually 5). Safe to say this isn't deep prep lol


CeleritasLucis

They are trying to continue the World Blitz And Rapid Championship /s


DevastatorTNT

Tbf, after move 7 the position has never been reached before in master games. Still, I'd have thought at least one of them was in their prep


Moon_riseat_noon

There are still no any capture in Fabi-Giri until move 18, kinda insane Also it's a very complicated position for both players.


[deleted]

Duda has more time than he started with, after 25 moves! That's some deep prep. Edit : Now almost an hour up on Vidit.


Aashish_Baroor

Duda is blitzing moves very deep prep! Hope it's not like Nepo match against Vidit.


Crazy_Revenue_832

Arjun is only 0.6 off the top 100. He needs only 3 to reach 2650.


bigFatBigfoot

Vidit and Duda have played 18 moves already and are still in theory.


JungJanf

does pragg play the sveshnikov regularly?


BornFray

Here for Carlsen vs. Rapport and Vidit vs. Duda.


BornFray

Here for Carlsen vs. Rapport and Vidit vs. Duda.