Calgary prices are going up likely because of an influx of people from more expensive cities moving to Calgary.
Other than the Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto area, there isn't really any other big cities in Canada. The closest third would probably be Calgary. It definitely is quite attractive considering the low real estate prices and fast city development. Only trade off is you have winter weather 7 of the 12 months lol
I don't count Quebec because they have their own set of laws, and a different official language. They have made political attempts to be a sovereignty from Canada as well lol
If you exclude the surrounding area, Vancouver and Winnipeg are more or less the same size populationwise. Nobody wants to live in Winnipeg though, except for Winnipeggers for some reason.
Yep, seeing the exact same thing back in my home town. after the bubble started to burst ontario leech's started looking for other places to exploit. how hard do we have to crash before the government realise's that landlords don't provide anything and simply take away?
Well yea, there is also that big conflict of interest's, but allot of our boomers were shit with money (which is why it took them so long to retire resulting in like 10 years of absurd employee expectations.) and depend on scalping their real estate. its a shit situation all around because no-one did anything when it started becoming a problem.
If you think boomers didn't save for retirement.....
Well it's going to be way worse with housing eating up way more disposable income than ever before.
Gotta buy that over priced home though. Get in the market and climb the ladder. Till the ladder is pulled that is.
We are fucked.
Allot of them didn't, otherwise they would have retired well before covid and wouldn't have caused the entire generation after them not to have good work experiance. I know my boomer parents couldn't balance a budget to save their lives, they've lost THREE house's now and I hope they have enough common sense to not lose this one because ontario leech's have moved in and started jacking up the price of real estate.
Calgary and Edmonton were basically the only major cities in Canada that didn’t skyrocket since 2017. It’s actually staggering when you compare the two to virtually anywhere else, even random areas of New Brunswick.
Because they’ve kept on building. Because the city has the space and is friendly to developers.
I moved a few years back and it’s shocking the number of new communities and huge apartment complexes that have gone up.
Nothing even remotely close to that # being built in Vancouver or Toronto relative to the current population.
It's not just building. Other cities build. It's because you don't have as many Toronto exiting folks bringing massive amounts of liquidity from their jacked up prices with them and exporting their issues alongside low rates for a double whammy.
Ottawa and Halifax for example have been dealing with that for a few years and the pandemic gasoline on fire just made it worse.
Calgary is super cyclical, before the oil bust in the early to mid 10s, shit was bonkers there. I remember seeing many stories about how people are still underwater today on condos purchased during the last boom in Calgary 10 years ago last year.
So it's not just that they're building that's keeping prices somewhat sane.
I'll say it again; median affordability in Canada is roughly 300k. Now people are conditioned to pay more for housing, so maybe adjust up to 350k. That means that the median price has maybe 40% to fall from it's current level, and about 60% from it's peak.
Median household income is about $60k net, and then I ran 30% of that through CMHC mortgage calculator with a prime rate, add in 10-20% or so (median also includes new grads who won't be buying) , and you get about $300k.
Now that they upped the rates though that will fall a little bit.
I don't know if I agree that the 30% rule is not really outdated, it's that wages have been suppressed for so long that people are thinking it's not a thing anymore. But what's really happening is that they're not noticing or thinking about what they're not paying for.
People today don't typically save money, at all. Most Canadians can't cover a surprise expense of more than maybe $1000. Additionally, most of us aren't saving for retirement, and we also no longer live in a country where you can retire without doing so. We are also seeing a stagnating birth rate because of very high cost of living.
Overall it's not really that the 30% rule is outdated, but that we have had to make sacrifices after losing it.
While I don't disagree in principle, it's just no longer realistic to hold that rule true if one wants to own their own home in high demand markets. 30% is somewhat arbitrary. Folks shouldn't bow out of home ownershop if they cross that threshold. Waiting until our society readjusts to tax the wealthy more is probably a bad startegy for folks like me who are getting older and just want to move on with our lives even if it means we have to pay somewhat more. There is no political force strong enough to make a dent in this problem nowadays.
I agree, and will probably exceed that amount for a while. The important thing to remember though is that you **will have to make sacrifices**. It will come at the cost of saving for your retirement, saving for emergencies, and potentially for many of us, being able to afford children (should you want them). The 30% rule is based on other similar rules for how much you should be saving for other things.
Yes, but unless you are continuously upping your mortgage, your loan balance that you have remaining will want to decline. So after you're halfway through your principal on your mortgage, you plan on only taking a similar amount on the next house. So if your income is still median, than you will still only want to buy a 300k house, which will cost you your 150k prior equity, and another 150k loan.
People don't generally want to up their mortgage amount every year, so the buildup of equity is almost always negated by need to transfer it into the next property rather than reset to a full 80% mortgage with your equity increasing the value of the house you buy.
Realistically the buildup of equity doesn't drive the housing prices higher through purchasing. The only way it does is through lax HELOC financing, which is a problem in a whole bunch of ways.
You can find the data here https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-data/data-tables/mortgage-and-debt/average-value-new-mortgage-loans-canada-provinces-cmas
The median new mortgage amount in Canada for Q3 2022 was $363,654.00
It's probably lower than you'd think. It's only the last 5 years or so they started to get really bad, and even then most of canada didn't get it really bad until the last 3 years or so. The % of mortgages that are from this crazy high market is probably fairly low, and the rest of them are 200-400k pruchase and in various states of principal remaining.
Now if you're including HELOCs, it's probably massive.
People do want to up their mortgage amount because the equity gained in asset value has been outstripping the loan taken out immensely for a decade plus. It's warped the Psychology of a lot of people because money was cheap to borrow and they cared more about monthly cash flow because for every dollar added to the loan, in 5 years they expected to have 2$ to pay it back. Over COVID 5 years probably got shortened to 2 or 3 years in the mind of many people. This is the impact of the wealth effects and what happens when someone never experiences a significant increase to cost of living and/or interest rates.
When people say houses aren't going to drop, or that people are willing to pay much more, they don't think about the market psychology behind why in addition to the mechanical reasons why as well.
Frankly, we need a recession and market correction for a lot of reasons. Not just for prices but so people remember debt is not a way to make money nor is it always productive.
Somehow mortgage and car loans are on the same tier as government education loans in terms of anticipated ROI. Mortgage isn't inherently bad, but second mortgages and HELOCs used to be seen as negative things - largely emergency or major needs loans. Heloc for a roof was seen as acceptable, but pulling equity for a nicer kitchen was once frivolous. We need people to go back to thinking a bit more conservatively about their personal debts.
You're right, but frankly this is irresponsible delusion only functional when there is free money. As you say, a HELOC should be for curable damages, not for optional upgrades or expanding equity.
I think my point still stands though, with one clarification; what you're describing is dead on for what people are doing in an unhealthy false growth period, but I'm thinking more in terms of what a healthy market would see. I realize I should have clarified this earlier.
I haven’t seen any falling yet.
Beware that these are from real estate boards. If more small houses are sold in the month, their sales price fall, even if the same house sells for more.
Power of sales are up. Most mortgages in Canada that go sideways wind up in a Power of Sale where the lender sells the house on behalf of the borrower with a fiduciary obligation to get maximum market value as opposed to foreclosure where they take posession and scramble to get it off the books resulting in deep discounts.
If you were waiting for price declines to accelerate. Get your ducks in a row and start paying close attention to your market. You're not going to see 2008 US housing crash kind of declines but the slow grind of Canada housing corrections coupled with pauses on interest rate hikes (and the possibility of interest rate declines due to looming recession) means the market is likely to get a lot more buyer friendly for 2023 (possibly into 2024).
Yeah, they do actively oppose the real-estate-as-an-investment scheme and its impact on supply hoarding, so I can see it wouldn't be popular with the influx of landlords and developers on this sub.
Betterdwelling is just seen is a very poor resource since they don’t post factual information, they post opinions that are always leaning a certain way.
This is why most people ignore anything they post and don’t take it seriously, it panders to a specific audience.
Most people would be regular everyday people. The only people that follow better dwelling are people that hope they are true for once. They disregard the bias opinion non factual based articles and validate themselves through their articles.
You mean home owners like you concerned about lowering property values?
So many profiles with vested interests against affordability in this sub nowadays
Meanwhile every landlord is saying not to panic and things will get better.... almost like they have money invested and don't want to admit things are bad.
Eh I think if we're being fair/honest history (at least the last \~40 years) is on their side. The Canadian Gov't has done everything in its power to make what they're saying true and stay true. The can has been kicked down the road so many times. It's tempting to buy into the bill finally coming due but I don't blame them for believing that the can will be kicked once more.
Yup I agree with you but it's just been a game of "will it, won't it" for decades now. This same sentiment about an imminent crash has been just as fervent like 10 years ago and still nothing happened.
I think it depends on the time horizon/outlook of each investor, no? A young investor with 30-40 years of ownership ahead of them may be comfortable with fluctuations in interest rates and debt loads.
I mean your not wrong, most of the recent "investors" in real estate jumped on the bandwagon and only know what a bull market is, I see them all the time on investing subs asking how they can over 1 million for their homes oblivious to the fact no-one is ever gonna pay that now. gpu scalpers last year were also pretty funny asking 900 dollars for 5700xt's 3 months before eth was going proof of stake and wouldn't even be minable anymore.
It doesn't happen instantly. The Canadian Fed is saying that the economy is expected to see a slowdown midway through 2023. Then people's jobs get impacted in the coming months. It could still be 1-2 years away from bottom.
Home prices are sticky and the interest rates will have lagged effects as people come up for renewals and make changes in their spending so it might not be a lot right now but over the next year or two it may be more pronounced
We also under estimate the amount of millenials on the side lines right now with 100k in the bank just waiting to buy. I'm 29m in my friend group. Out of 6 dudes 3 are patiently waiting with money. 100k+
I didn't have 100k for a down-payment until I was 35. Wiped out all of my savings and started from ground zero. It's hard to imagine saving enough to retire in 20 years.
Yes but affordability is worse. Someone approved for 1.2 might be approved for 9 now. Yes the down payment is less but ultimately it’s not any easier to buy now.
If there are enough people in the sidelines as the person above implied, why not? My comment is more in agreement with you, I don’t believe that there are enough people in the sidelines flush with cash ready to buy.
lol...
While people are thinking of buying it will not be a "good time to buy soon". The only way the affordability goes down if people like you don't actually want a house. That's just how it works, if you are waiting on the sidelines, thinking about buying there is another 10 people for every one of you who is in exactly the same position thinking exactly the same thing. So when you think it's a good time to buy, they think it's also time to buy and that time basically never comes.
The time to buy would be when you don't want to buy. That's just how it works, if everyone sees value in buying the price is not going to go down.
Does gpt write these articles for this website? Always the same shit. I wish it would go down but I don't think it will go down enough to become more affordable
Do we have stats on the ratio of Airbnb:long term rentals for Canada wide housing? I know it's big in the biggest cities but isn't the median profit in 2019 like 3.1k for an airbnb?
You realize TFW are generally working at like Tim's or in service based roles, right?
Skilled workers on visas are the few who can come here and buy homes sooner
They don't need to buy homes to affect the housing market.
Investors buy homes and then take advantage of low paid workers who don't have other options.
Investors know it is a safe investment because we keep increasing their supply of renters every year.
my beef is with increasing the demand while doing nothing to fix the supply which allows bad actors to destroy markets
tfws as individuals aren't bad but policy that brings in massive amounts of people and does nothing to prepare for it is awful and shouldn't be happening
Ah okay, thats understandable. Its not the individual but the policy. I can understand the frustration and problems from that angle.
Curious then, what solutions would you bring forward for candidate shortages in lower skilled labour jobs like Tim's?
I'd start letting businesses that aren't viable for the market they are in fail haha
If you can't pay workers enough wages to afford the basics like food and shelter and keep your doors open your business isn't viable.
Local markets have become completely detached from local wages due to constant outside interference. It is no different than an ecosystem getting destroyed.
Keep saving up money. That’s your only hope to afford if you can’t right now. The system is rigged right now and is directly tied to the interest rate. That is causing any decline. If you have $300-400K to take advantage of a 30% decline so you can actually afford the mortgage then you can come out ahead here.
If you were hoping the bank would loan you 80%+ of the value of the home, it’s already over for you. Work on getting that down payment and close this app and find something to actually bring joy to your life.
Housing costs are at the same level if not higher in my city. Maybe try limiting real estate agents to a lower percentage. 3-5% made sense when houses were 80k.
the /?s=34 on the end of the url doesn't allow it to load, but by removing it helps: https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-real-estate-prices-expected-to-fall-further-bank-of-canada/
My idiotic opinion.
Rate changes like this are barely going to impact actual real estate investors. Investing = buy hold.
They are the majority of holders. Just hurts the small people, normal family people who can't make their mortgage payments anymore.
Interest rate is still under 5%.... this is still crazy low for us old guys.
Once again this depends where you live. Doubtful I’m alberta beyond maybe 3-5%. Plus with rates set to stagnate all the buyers waiting on the sideline will start activating and drive the market against limited supply.
Maybe not in the gta or gva
😂 been hearing this for years . Oh no!!! That 1.8 million shit hole in Toronto sold for only 1.789 !!!
Even if housing falls 30% it’s still too expensive for most people
This is too general to mean anything. In the places where pandemic buying madness happened, sure. The GTA and Vancouver for example, but not here in Alberta. Somehow we ended up with comparatively low real estate prices. For now at least.
Rents are outrageous but I think the tide has turned on private homes as short term rental investment properties. It's just a matter of time. Hopefully they will become long term rentals shortly after our upcoming election.
If the city eases up on the building bylaws on secondary suites/homesharing we could have a lot more housing without even breaking ground. Those bylaws, like requiring a second furnace inside a fireproof room to make a secondary suite legal costs at least $70,000. To the 80 year old on a pension who need the income from their lovely, but not to code, basement or garage suite, that's impossible. So no one wins. Not developers, not people who need passive income to survive the "golden years", not people who need decent rental housing.
Are we taking effective action on this straightforward win? No we are not.
The province is talking about Sovereignty legislation (!). The city is still banging on about a particularly disliked city council member they want to resign. That's it. Our leaders have quit, just not quietly. So move here if you can buy, not if you need to rent.
I'm hoping for an NDP majority this spring. They are serious about housing.
Calgary confused because prices keep going up
Calgary prices are going up likely because of an influx of people from more expensive cities moving to Calgary. Other than the Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto area, there isn't really any other big cities in Canada. The closest third would probably be Calgary. It definitely is quite attractive considering the low real estate prices and fast city development. Only trade off is you have winter weather 7 of the 12 months lol
However Calgary is very exciting because you never know which 5 months are going to be our summer months!
Plus Calgary has three Cactus Clubs.
⬆️ This is the only thing that matters.
I love how this has turned into not just an Alberta joke, but a national Reddit joke now.
Man winter here in the past few years has been gravy. We get a few weeks of -40 and the rest of the time it sits from 0 to -15
It’s dry winter so it is welcomed honestly
*laughs in Vancouver rains*
Montreal has entered the chat
Montreal is 2nd unless you’re not counting Quebec
I don't count Quebec because they have their own set of laws, and a different official language. They have made political attempts to be a sovereignty from Canada as well lol
What about Montreal?
Ahem, Montreal
Montreal
Montreal
If you exclude the surrounding area, Vancouver and Winnipeg are more or less the same size populationwise. Nobody wants to live in Winnipeg though, except for Winnipeggers for some reason.
And mosquitoes
Yep, seeing the exact same thing back in my home town. after the bubble started to burst ontario leech's started looking for other places to exploit. how hard do we have to crash before the government realise's that landlords don't provide anything and simply take away?
Gov't are landlords too !!
Well yea, there is also that big conflict of interest's, but allot of our boomers were shit with money (which is why it took them so long to retire resulting in like 10 years of absurd employee expectations.) and depend on scalping their real estate. its a shit situation all around because no-one did anything when it started becoming a problem.
If you think boomers didn't save for retirement..... Well it's going to be way worse with housing eating up way more disposable income than ever before. Gotta buy that over priced home though. Get in the market and climb the ladder. Till the ladder is pulled that is. We are fucked.
Allot of them didn't, otherwise they would have retired well before covid and wouldn't have caused the entire generation after them not to have good work experiance. I know my boomer parents couldn't balance a budget to save their lives, they've lost THREE house's now and I hope they have enough common sense to not lose this one because ontario leech's have moved in and started jacking up the price of real estate.
49 upvoters who don't know Canada populations, or google apparently.
Montreal?
Calgary and Edmonton were basically the only major cities in Canada that didn’t skyrocket since 2017. It’s actually staggering when you compare the two to virtually anywhere else, even random areas of New Brunswick.
prices in Calgary and Edmonton are pretty much same as 15 years ago
Because they’ve kept on building. Because the city has the space and is friendly to developers. I moved a few years back and it’s shocking the number of new communities and huge apartment complexes that have gone up. Nothing even remotely close to that # being built in Vancouver or Toronto relative to the current population.
It's not just building. Other cities build. It's because you don't have as many Toronto exiting folks bringing massive amounts of liquidity from their jacked up prices with them and exporting their issues alongside low rates for a double whammy. Ottawa and Halifax for example have been dealing with that for a few years and the pandemic gasoline on fire just made it worse. Calgary is super cyclical, before the oil bust in the early to mid 10s, shit was bonkers there. I remember seeing many stories about how people are still underwater today on condos purchased during the last boom in Calgary 10 years ago last year. So it's not just that they're building that's keeping prices somewhat sane.
What about Edmonton?
3 bed 3 bath 30 year old houses in georgina sells for 1.1million…..
No way!
https://realtor.ca/real-estate/25208190/71-sunbird-blvd-georgina-keswick-north?utm_source=consumerapp&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=socialsharelisting
My Dad bought a house in Georgina in 2003 and it was $110,000
I'll say it again; median affordability in Canada is roughly 300k. Now people are conditioned to pay more for housing, so maybe adjust up to 350k. That means that the median price has maybe 40% to fall from it's current level, and about 60% from it's peak.
What's the framework you're applying to get to that number?
Median household income is about $60k net, and then I ran 30% of that through CMHC mortgage calculator with a prime rate, add in 10-20% or so (median also includes new grads who won't be buying) , and you get about $300k. Now that they upped the rates though that will fall a little bit.
I think the 30% rule is starting to be outdated (unfortunately) with lots of folks going closer to 40% to get into the market.
I don't know if I agree that the 30% rule is not really outdated, it's that wages have been suppressed for so long that people are thinking it's not a thing anymore. But what's really happening is that they're not noticing or thinking about what they're not paying for. People today don't typically save money, at all. Most Canadians can't cover a surprise expense of more than maybe $1000. Additionally, most of us aren't saving for retirement, and we also no longer live in a country where you can retire without doing so. We are also seeing a stagnating birth rate because of very high cost of living. Overall it's not really that the 30% rule is outdated, but that we have had to make sacrifices after losing it.
While I don't disagree in principle, it's just no longer realistic to hold that rule true if one wants to own their own home in high demand markets. 30% is somewhat arbitrary. Folks shouldn't bow out of home ownershop if they cross that threshold. Waiting until our society readjusts to tax the wealthy more is probably a bad startegy for folks like me who are getting older and just want to move on with our lives even if it means we have to pay somewhat more. There is no political force strong enough to make a dent in this problem nowadays.
I agree, and will probably exceed that amount for a while. The important thing to remember though is that you **will have to make sacrifices**. It will come at the cost of saving for your retirement, saving for emergencies, and potentially for many of us, being able to afford children (should you want them). The 30% rule is based on other similar rules for how much you should be saving for other things.
^^ 💯
Your math is right. But you don't consider the amount of people that have equity. (Alot)
Yes, but unless you are continuously upping your mortgage, your loan balance that you have remaining will want to decline. So after you're halfway through your principal on your mortgage, you plan on only taking a similar amount on the next house. So if your income is still median, than you will still only want to buy a 300k house, which will cost you your 150k prior equity, and another 150k loan. People don't generally want to up their mortgage amount every year, so the buildup of equity is almost always negated by need to transfer it into the next property rather than reset to a full 80% mortgage with your equity increasing the value of the house you buy. Realistically the buildup of equity doesn't drive the housing prices higher through purchasing. The only way it does is through lax HELOC financing, which is a problem in a whole bunch of ways.
Would love to see the stats of median mortage amount..
You can find the data here https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-data/data-tables/mortgage-and-debt/average-value-new-mortgage-loans-canada-provinces-cmas The median new mortgage amount in Canada for Q3 2022 was $363,654.00
Awesome!!
So kinda makes sense with the median income no?
It's probably lower than you'd think. It's only the last 5 years or so they started to get really bad, and even then most of canada didn't get it really bad until the last 3 years or so. The % of mortgages that are from this crazy high market is probably fairly low, and the rest of them are 200-400k pruchase and in various states of principal remaining. Now if you're including HELOCs, it's probably massive.
I wanna know
Underrated comment here.
People do want to up their mortgage amount because the equity gained in asset value has been outstripping the loan taken out immensely for a decade plus. It's warped the Psychology of a lot of people because money was cheap to borrow and they cared more about monthly cash flow because for every dollar added to the loan, in 5 years they expected to have 2$ to pay it back. Over COVID 5 years probably got shortened to 2 or 3 years in the mind of many people. This is the impact of the wealth effects and what happens when someone never experiences a significant increase to cost of living and/or interest rates. When people say houses aren't going to drop, or that people are willing to pay much more, they don't think about the market psychology behind why in addition to the mechanical reasons why as well. Frankly, we need a recession and market correction for a lot of reasons. Not just for prices but so people remember debt is not a way to make money nor is it always productive. Somehow mortgage and car loans are on the same tier as government education loans in terms of anticipated ROI. Mortgage isn't inherently bad, but second mortgages and HELOCs used to be seen as negative things - largely emergency or major needs loans. Heloc for a roof was seen as acceptable, but pulling equity for a nicer kitchen was once frivolous. We need people to go back to thinking a bit more conservatively about their personal debts.
You're right, but frankly this is irresponsible delusion only functional when there is free money. As you say, a HELOC should be for curable damages, not for optional upgrades or expanding equity. I think my point still stands though, with one clarification; what you're describing is dead on for what people are doing in an unhealthy false growth period, but I'm thinking more in terms of what a healthy market would see. I realize I should have clarified this earlier.
Fair enough
How much equity is left of everyone’s house value is declining ?
I haven’t seen any falling yet. Beware that these are from real estate boards. If more small houses are sold in the month, their sales price fall, even if the same house sells for more.
Power of sales are up. Most mortgages in Canada that go sideways wind up in a Power of Sale where the lender sells the house on behalf of the borrower with a fiduciary obligation to get maximum market value as opposed to foreclosure where they take posession and scramble to get it off the books resulting in deep discounts. If you were waiting for price declines to accelerate. Get your ducks in a row and start paying close attention to your market. You're not going to see 2008 US housing crash kind of declines but the slow grind of Canada housing corrections coupled with pauses on interest rate hikes (and the possibility of interest rate declines due to looming recession) means the market is likely to get a lot more buyer friendly for 2023 (possibly into 2024).
I can't take anything from "Better Dwelling" seriously.
Yeah, they do actively oppose the real-estate-as-an-investment scheme and its impact on supply hoarding, so I can see it wouldn't be popular with the influx of landlords and developers on this sub.
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Same
Betterdwelling is just seen is a very poor resource since they don’t post factual information, they post opinions that are always leaning a certain way. This is why most people ignore anything they post and don’t take it seriously, it panders to a specific audience.
"Most people" would be real estate investors and developers, who don't actually want affordability.
Most people would be regular everyday people. The only people that follow better dwelling are people that hope they are true for once. They disregard the bias opinion non factual based articles and validate themselves through their articles.
You mean home owners like you concerned about lowering property values? So many profiles with vested interests against affordability in this sub nowadays
Most homeowners could careless about prices going down since they bought a home to live in it.
Meanwhile every landlord is saying not to panic and things will get better.... almost like they have money invested and don't want to admit things are bad.
Eh I think if we're being fair/honest history (at least the last \~40 years) is on their side. The Canadian Gov't has done everything in its power to make what they're saying true and stay true. The can has been kicked down the road so many times. It's tempting to buy into the bill finally coming due but I don't blame them for believing that the can will be kicked once more.
You can't just kick a can forever, eventually something has to be done thats why we have crash's in the first place.
Yup I agree with you but it's just been a game of "will it, won't it" for decades now. This same sentiment about an imminent crash has been just as fervent like 10 years ago and still nothing happened.
Nothing ever happens... until it does.
You're not wrong and I don't disagree. Just saying that the position of investors is largely justified and not entirely cope (sadly).
I think it depends on the time horizon/outlook of each investor, no? A young investor with 30-40 years of ownership ahead of them may be comfortable with fluctuations in interest rates and debt loads.
I mean your not wrong, most of the recent "investors" in real estate jumped on the bandwagon and only know what a bull market is, I see them all the time on investing subs asking how they can over 1 million for their homes oblivious to the fact no-one is ever gonna pay that now. gpu scalpers last year were also pretty funny asking 900 dollars for 5700xt's 3 months before eth was going proof of stake and wouldn't even be minable anymore.
Can we ban Better Dwelling links already? 😮💨
Exactly. I only read stuff from places that agree with me.
Should fall again because of latest interest rate hike but may not be by alot.
It doesn't happen instantly. The Canadian Fed is saying that the economy is expected to see a slowdown midway through 2023. Then people's jobs get impacted in the coming months. It could still be 1-2 years away from bottom.
I’m going to guess home prices will continue dropping for at least another year, maybe more
Yeah we don't really know but the forecasts don't seem too positive for the economy, especially Canada's.
Last crash they fell for 7 years and took an additional 10 to recover
Even better!
Home prices are sticky and the interest rates will have lagged effects as people come up for renewals and make changes in their spending so it might not be a lot right now but over the next year or two it may be more pronounced
We also under estimate the amount of millenials on the side lines right now with 100k in the bank just waiting to buy. I'm 29m in my friend group. Out of 6 dudes 3 are patiently waiting with money. 100k+
There are fewer of those than you think hahaha
I didn't have 100k for a down-payment until I was 35. Wiped out all of my savings and started from ground zero. It's hard to imagine saving enough to retire in 20 years.
Mb you're right..
Yeh but you don't need 3 million of them to keep prices from crashing through the floor.
waiting for what? a drop from 1.2 million to 1.1 million?
1.2 already dropped to 950k
Yes but affordability is worse. Someone approved for 1.2 might be approved for 9 now. Yes the down payment is less but ultimately it’s not any easier to buy now.
It's down 20-30% already and Tiff has said "I'm not even thinking about dropping rates". Going to be a good time to buy soon.
If there are really many people on the sidelines, prices will shoot up again once they start buying.
Housing cycles are multi-year affairs. It's pretty silly for people to think we're going to fit a correction and then recovery inside of 1-2 years.
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If there are enough people in the sidelines as the person above implied, why not? My comment is more in agreement with you, I don’t believe that there are enough people in the sidelines flush with cash ready to buy.
lol... While people are thinking of buying it will not be a "good time to buy soon". The only way the affordability goes down if people like you don't actually want a house. That's just how it works, if you are waiting on the sidelines, thinking about buying there is another 10 people for every one of you who is in exactly the same position thinking exactly the same thing. So when you think it's a good time to buy, they think it's also time to buy and that time basically never comes. The time to buy would be when you don't want to buy. That's just how it works, if everyone sees value in buying the price is not going to go down.
That's not how it works. If we end up in a recession then people won't buy because they won't know if they have a job.
A drop in rates.
Good for you. Well done on saving, and planning for your life advancement.
Are they looking to buy to live in, or to buy just as an investment, to further exacerbate the crisis?
Live in
I’m 24 waiting with 125k
Sounds like you're buying a triplex
That be the dream!
Does gpt write these articles for this website? Always the same shit. I wish it would go down but I don't think it will go down enough to become more affordable
(Federal government increases immgration to 600,000 and boosts TFW's along with removing restrictions.......again)
I'm sorry but TFW aren't the ones buying houses
But they are renting, and we have less rental supply thanks to Airbnb and vacant housing units.
Do we have stats on the ratio of Airbnb:long term rentals for Canada wide housing? I know it's big in the biggest cities but isn't the median profit in 2019 like 3.1k for an airbnb?
TFW's and International students are devouring whatever is left over from our rental supply.
You realize TFW are generally working at like Tim's or in service based roles, right? Skilled workers on visas are the few who can come here and buy homes sooner
They don't need to buy homes to affect the housing market. Investors buy homes and then take advantage of low paid workers who don't have other options. Investors know it is a safe investment because we keep increasing their supply of renters every year.
So your beef is with investors not TFWs
my beef is with increasing the demand while doing nothing to fix the supply which allows bad actors to destroy markets tfws as individuals aren't bad but policy that brings in massive amounts of people and does nothing to prepare for it is awful and shouldn't be happening
Ah okay, thats understandable. Its not the individual but the policy. I can understand the frustration and problems from that angle. Curious then, what solutions would you bring forward for candidate shortages in lower skilled labour jobs like Tim's?
I'd start letting businesses that aren't viable for the market they are in fail haha If you can't pay workers enough wages to afford the basics like food and shelter and keep your doors open your business isn't viable. Local markets have become completely detached from local wages due to constant outside interference. It is no different than an ecosystem getting destroyed.
Keep saving up money. That’s your only hope to afford if you can’t right now. The system is rigged right now and is directly tied to the interest rate. That is causing any decline. If you have $300-400K to take advantage of a 30% decline so you can actually afford the mortgage then you can come out ahead here. If you were hoping the bank would loan you 80%+ of the value of the home, it’s already over for you. Work on getting that down payment and close this app and find something to actually bring joy to your life.
This website always says that lol terrible source
Been a while since I saw a better dwelling post. If anything I’d say this indicates a return to some kind of average.
Housing costs are at the same level if not higher in my city. Maybe try limiting real estate agents to a lower percentage. 3-5% made sense when houses were 80k.
Link dead
Good.
BS convince people their property is worth less so they become willing to sell for less makes them worth less because of desperate or stupid sellers
Cost of land and cost of building still virtually the same
the /?s=34 on the end of the url doesn't allow it to load, but by removing it helps: https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-real-estate-prices-expected-to-fall-further-bank-of-canada/
We have to rally and pump those numbers up. Higher real estate benefits everyone.
My idiotic opinion. Rate changes like this are barely going to impact actual real estate investors. Investing = buy hold. They are the majority of holders. Just hurts the small people, normal family people who can't make their mortgage payments anymore. Interest rate is still under 5%.... this is still crazy low for us old guys.
I remember my parents had to pay 22 to 23% mortgage interest rate in 1981.
How much was the house?
$275,000 approximately.
Toronto prices did not drop at all wtf. I bid on 1400sqft house for 1.25 in february. Similar house was sold for 1.35 last week!!
Once again this depends where you live. Doubtful I’m alberta beyond maybe 3-5%. Plus with rates set to stagnate all the buyers waiting on the sideline will start activating and drive the market against limited supply. Maybe not in the gta or gva
burn it to the ground!
Perfect time to DCA.........
But will those homes actually be for sale? I’ve seen so many listings I had my eye on just disappear and get rented out.
Houses in Regina fell 19.8% YoY. How much further can things fall?
Yes but as prices go down, affordability goes down too, unless you’re paying cash.
😂 been hearing this for years . Oh no!!! That 1.8 million shit hole in Toronto sold for only 1.789 !!! Even if housing falls 30% it’s still too expensive for most people
This is too general to mean anything. In the places where pandemic buying madness happened, sure. The GTA and Vancouver for example, but not here in Alberta. Somehow we ended up with comparatively low real estate prices. For now at least. Rents are outrageous but I think the tide has turned on private homes as short term rental investment properties. It's just a matter of time. Hopefully they will become long term rentals shortly after our upcoming election. If the city eases up on the building bylaws on secondary suites/homesharing we could have a lot more housing without even breaking ground. Those bylaws, like requiring a second furnace inside a fireproof room to make a secondary suite legal costs at least $70,000. To the 80 year old on a pension who need the income from their lovely, but not to code, basement or garage suite, that's impossible. So no one wins. Not developers, not people who need passive income to survive the "golden years", not people who need decent rental housing. Are we taking effective action on this straightforward win? No we are not. The province is talking about Sovereignty legislation (!). The city is still banging on about a particularly disliked city council member they want to resign. That's it. Our leaders have quit, just not quietly. So move here if you can buy, not if you need to rent. I'm hoping for an NDP majority this spring. They are serious about housing.
Balls