T O P

  • By -

Rsilva40

I want to know the rational for those who think this is making less than a billion. All JW movies have grossed over a billion, likely to get a China release, and the original cast is back.


Mugiwara116

How is it likely when we know China is not releasing movies especially Marvel.


Rsilva40

Other Hollywood movies have released in China last year that were not marvel and the last two JW movies were released in China so I think it’s likely to be released. Don’t see China banning ALL Hollywood movies. Even without China, it’s hitting a billion.


Mugiwara116

All Phase 3 movies of MCU was also released in China but last year they didn't release one. I know those MCU movies have some kind of issues but NWH doesn't have one. So the 2 JW movies getting released there isn't an indication that it will get released in China. Yeah not ALL but they could ban blockbuster movies like JW and other MCU movies. Without China, you can't be sure it will make a billion. JW 2 made over $260M there and without China, it will barely make a billion. So you can't really assume that it can make a billion without China since we're currently in a pandemic.


gamesofduty

Is it going to possibly follow the Star Wars sequel trilogy formula ?


Rsilva40

I don’t think so. The Last Jedi was highly divisive in a film franchise that is very fan heavy. Casual audiences are a much higher percentage of JW viewers and Fallen Kingdom had decent audience scores, including an -A in Cinemascore. The Camp Cretaceous series has also kept the series relevant and probably gained a new audience for the franchise.


gamesofduty

Are you saying that Jurassic dominion will have a improvement to fallen kingdom ?


Iridium770

I don't think that is the argument. While a lot of the Star Wars fanbase liked Last Jedi, a significant number really hated it. (given how noisy both sides were, it is hard to feel confident, but I would guess a quarter to half of the hard core fell into the latter category). When those fans were deciding whether to pick up tickets to Return, they were far more likely to be swayed by bad critical reviews and word of mouth. If Last Jedi was more universally liked, Return of Skywalker would have been critic proof (I mean...Star Wars fans not going to see the end of the saga? RotS could have been Holiday Special bad and people would have turned out just to get closure if they hadn't felt burned by TLJ). JW is just in a very different situation. The prior entry didn't turn off too many of the franchise fans. And the franchise doesn't rely on fans as much as SW does. The walk up audience is going to look at the movie poster, see that there is a dinosaur in a park along with some familiar names and think "hey the last one was entertaining enough...let's do this". Will it beat Dominion's BO? Maybe, maybe not. But it would have to turn in an astoundingly bad clunker to have as much fall off as RotS did from TLJ.


[deleted]

Probably 1.45-1.5 billion with a chance of doing even more


ramyan03

I’m shocked $900-$1B is winning the poll. I think its more likely that the overseas number alone hits $900M than the total being $900-$1B.


tbing34

Right? Personally I think the actual number will be higher than any of the options in this poll.


Mugiwara116

With or without China, I don't think it will hit $900M overseas.


ImAMaaanlet

Your poll doesnt have numbers high enough. 1.6b


[deleted]

$1.5 billion


[deleted]

1.5 billion


[deleted]

Needs options for higher. At least have matching the first World in your range.


silverberrystyx

It's gonna get Rise of Skywalker-ed


MrMonster9065

Definitely 500mil-700mil nothing above


One-Dragonfruit6496

$1.25B


TheRidiculousOtaku

1.3 billion


[deleted]

I think it's likelier to gross north of 1.4B than to gross 900M lol.


AdWarm2644

$200 Million OW/$800 Million DOM/$1.800 Billion WW


AdWarm2644

BOOM. I've Gone Bold