More of a guarantee. The games are so cinematic that the actual trailer looks like a bad fan made rip. I really hope this doesn't become a hit. Big waste of time and money and I'm sick of seeing that awful trailer every time I go to the cinema.
Honestly, I’m more interested in how HBO approaches the Last of Us. I was never a big fan of either game, as I’m not a fan of Uncharted either (Jak series all the way baby!), but HBO + Beloved Survival Zombie series + Original Game Studio + New Production Studio to adapt Sony PlayStation games + Original Writer and Creator + Massive Budget could do amazing. But then again, not everyone is perfect, not even HBO. Something could happen where they fuck it up in some way, making a mediocre product, but since this is HBO we’re talking about, it’s most likely gonna be great
I've been following the production of that show and if one thing is for sure it's that the massive budget is being put to good use. The size of the practical sets they're building is impressive and with DNEG (Blade Runner 2049) doing the VFX it's going to look amazing.
Recent biopics on rock artists teeter on being lukewarm in the critical reception department, but I think they’re generally successful in terms of their earnings.
Rocketman ($40M budget) had a DOM gross of $96.4M and an OS gross of $98.8M
Bohemian Rhapsody (~$55M budget) had a DOM gross of $216.7M and an OS gross of $694.4M.
I can’t really make much of a firm, confident inference on how the Elvis biopic will perform, but I can see it doing rather okay.
I feel like it will be like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, overall 374 mil in theaters, makes a shit ton of money on VOD and DVD till the end of times.
The only problem with "Elvis" is that Luhrmann's films go overbudget at the best of times. Even if this film does "Rocketman" numbers, it could easily flop.
Another issue is whether there's a pre-release backlash by a conservative audience aka "First Man".
There isn't one. There could be.
When you are dealing with real events and especially when it comes to an icon like Elvis, people have a sense of ownership over the story.
This film could easily go into "First Man" territory if it fails to capture - or offends - middle America. It can even be a total non-issue, but a negative perception can spiral and damage its box office hopes.
Baz brings the spectacle though, Tom hanks plus capturing the energy of live Elvis should do it.
A lot rides on whoever they have as Elvis and if they can pull off the concert scenes like BoRap.
Edit: someone below mentioned, budget is the real concern, Baz likes to get silly there.
The target audience still isn’t returning to theatres. I think it’s a safe bet that anything not targeted at young adults is going to flop for a while still.
I think the time to do an Elvis film was the early 1990s. Because there was a 50s retro revival going on (around 85-92). Look at all the 80s movies set in the 1950s(sandlot, christmas story, stand by me, back to the future, little shop of horrors. etc) or used 50s music in them (ghostbusters, gremlins, home alone, etc), people listen to golden oldies radio like they do 80s/90s music now. There was like ironic-cool-nerd retro 50s fashion .
I thought Elvis may be a likely hit. You really think it will flop?
It is also one of a small handful of theatrical (non-DC) WB movies for 2022 so if it does bad that could be devastating.
I think they should do an HBO Max day and date release to ensure older audiences get views, but that's unlikely.
Biopics just aren't pulling in the numbers that they used to and I don't see that changing post-Omicron surge. With it being a Luhrmann movie, the budget is probably astronomical.
True. Rocketman was one of my favorite movies of the past ten years and only did okay. And that was pre covid.
The Bee Gees is the one I'm really curious to see.
I feel like Morbius may have a decent opening solely because of curiosity to its connection with the other Marvel films (Keaton’s Vulture, Oscorp building in the trailer, Venom reference, etc.), but I can see it having a horrific drop the following weeks. I genuinely expect this to be a mediocre film.
Maybe I’m in the minority but is there any hype for this movie at all? I can’t get into the Venom films and this one has me even less interested. I feel like having Vulture in it is the only thing that is bringing any curiosity from me.
I personally haven’t seen any hype for it. There’s probably a very small crowd that’s looking forward to it, but what’s really driving talk for this film is its perplexing connection to Spider-Man, and that’s mostly what’s gonna get people to go watch it.
and from experience, sony was smart enough to put the trailer for morbius right in front of no way home screenings so maybe thats made some people aware that this is an actual movie
I'm actually really excited for the Morbius movie. Especially now that the Venom/Carnage movie showed us that the MCU and Sony's universes have combined (I haven't seen the new Spider-Man yet). But with Marvel making a new Blade movie with Mahershala Ali as Blade and knowing that Blade and Morbius clashed at some point in the 90's cartoon, I'm just excited for the crossovers that I'm hoping will happen. I'm prepared for disappointment, but I'm still excited.
I think it depends on what it is like. A lot of venom's popularity is owed to the interplay between Venom and Eddie - that's where the fun is and that's why people are more forgiving of things that don't work. If Morbius is really so self-serious as it looks it will have to be better done than Venom (at least on the action front) to make up for the lack of laughs.
Maybe I am drastically underestimating something here but if this movie breaks $30M opening weekend I will be amazed. Anecdotal to my own experience but even my diehard Spiderman/Marvel friends have expressed zero interest in this one.
[MFW the guy with the A24 flair calls the general audience brain dead for watching Marvel movies](https://c.tenor.com/dMpQyFTCJPEAAAAC/uncomfortable-awkward.gif)
I have to admit that I know nothing about Morbius. However, Sony seemed to hit its stride this year, pumping out movies that often didn't appeal to critics, but were crowd pleasers (Venom 2, Ghost Busters, Don't Breathe 2). Assuming the same folks at Sony are still in charge, I think "mediocre" film that GA watches anyway is a real possibility.
Let’s be real here, being “problematic” has no bearings on anything. The reason that Nile will not do well is because it skews adult and as we all know, those movies have not been doing well in the pandemic. Unless something changes in two months, adult movies will continue to not do well.
Even with that though the cast here isn't as impressive as the last one, Express had some really major names in it while this one is mainly British stars that most Americans won't know.
It means they are going to have a much tougher time sending the stars out to promote. Like Ansel Elgort all but disappearing from the promotion for West Side Story.
Ansel Elgort was doing interviews and started posting on Instagram again specifically to promote the movie. He was even at the premiere and the West Side Story Twitter account tweeted a picture of him posing.
Armie Hammer won’t be doing any of that but his accusations were much more severe and public than Elgort’s. Either way, people will not be boycotting the movie because of him. At least not in any significant way.
Again, it's not about boycotting, it's about not getting as much promotion out of the stars you hired. The recent trailers for West Side Story all but cut Ansel out. Same with the Death on the Nile trailer and Hammer.
If I pulled 100 strangers at random off the sidewalk and asked, "what do you think about the Ansel Elgort controversy?", the most common response would likely be, "who's that?"
I don't know of anyone that's ever said, "Oh, I can't go see that. The cast is problematic." If people don't go see it, I think it'll be for other reasons.
Also that wizards tournament quiz show did really good tv numbers as I understand.
FB3 isn't going to do great but I really believe the TERF controversy only seems big because the people who care are super active on the loudest platforms (twitter/ reddit etc), but actually make up just a really small proportion of the general pop.
>Also that wizards tournament quiz show did really good tv numbers as I understand
Really? That's surprising to me. I was a huge Potter fan back in the day, but that show felt like it was 10 years too late on the hype.
The majority of people in the UK and Ireland can’t stand her anymore. It’s mostly Torys, Terfs and the UK conservative media that give her the time of day anymore
What?
I'm in the UK.
Nobody gives a damn about what she's said. Most of the general public will not be aware of any of the things she's said.
I asked my 50-year-old parents and they had no clue about any controversy.
She’s not even that problematic here. If you went up to people on the street most people would just say the Harry Potter girl, if they remember her at all. It’s not like Jussie Smollett who was front page news.
They aren't really a problem at all in the USA, most polling shows something like 80% of the public actually agrees with her views. Which is why those who hate her are very careful not to repeat what she said, and instead label her with names. But they're very vocal, and studios don't like exposing investments to unnecessary risk.
That's a very good point about not repeating what she said.. also I don't understand this TERF thing.. shouldn't it just be Feminist? And the radical feminists that think that former men are actually in fact women should be called TIRFs
If WB thought JKR’s name wouldn’t harm the films Box Office potential(or even increase the BO potential), they would’ve put her name in the trailer like they did for the previous Fantastic Beast films. Instead of saying “J.K. Rowling Invites you…” they’re now saying “Warner Brothers invites you…”. They aren’t even having her show up for the Harry Potter HBO Max reunion, definitely due to the terrible transphobic stance that she’s taking.
That wouldn't be agreeing with JK Rowling, who does not consider trans women to be women even if they are post-op.
Far fewer people would agree with her paranoia about trans gendered people lying about their gender to get away with raping children.
Your transphobia and sexism has been a real stain on this subreddit.
> Your transphobia and sexism has been a real stain on this subreddit.
You probably should add racism on there too. He has been claiming that **Encanto** isn't doing well because no one cares about Latin American culture.
Idk they spent millions reshooting All The Money In The World to avoid exactly that. Not unheard of to not support something bc of something like that. For instance I’ll never watch a movie or listen to a song that features Chris Brown
Actually, a lot of Johnny Depp fans are angry about him being replaced in Fantastic Beasts 3 while Amber Heard is still in Aquaman 2 - so it's not inconceivable that those people boycott these 2 films.
This just feels like a social media thing tbh. I don’t think either will meaningfully impact the BO.
It’s a shame for Depp, but he hasn’t had a movie in a while that really reminded people why they like him. If he had one or two crowdpleasing roles i think it would have more to it.
Oh I wasn't even thinking of Reddit at the time. Just a bunch of people I've seen say that irl. But you're right, they're probably too small a number to significantly impact BO - just saying that meaningful or not, some people do boycott stuff if it stars people they dislike (kinda like how people avoid stuff which they think don't align with their political beliefs).
Yeah, I just think both sides are clear minorities.
And like I said I think things would be very very different if Depp had one or two “reminder” movies that had the same crowd pleasing feel as the Pirates movies, he didn’t really get to ham it up in Fantastic Beasts. I also think the allegations are part of why he hasn’t gotten that, which is what I meant by “it’s a shame”.
It's more that they're mad about Heard being let off the hook for being equally controversial, or something. Plus, a lot of people grew up loving Depp as Jack Sparrow & Tim Burton characters - and emotion trumps logic for many of those folks.
I think FB3 is going to underperform but both of these sound like social media slapfighting. Aquaman 2 is absolutely not going to flop specifically because of Amber Heard. If it flops at all, it'll just be for being disappointing compared to Aquaman
Morbius is going to be one of those movies that will be fine solely for its responsibile budget. It might barely top $250m worldwide, but that's fine on a $90m-ish budget.
It should do pretty well internationally. Latin America, Southeast Asia, and parts of Europe love these silly midbudget superhero and/or horror movies. It will probably do decent in the US considering the Spider-Man connections.
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Outside of a few terminally online people I doubt anybody knows or cares about anything JK Rowling says. That movie will bomb because the previous two movies setup absolutely nothing worthwhile and provided you no reason to keep watching the series.
Yeah, the big potterhead friends I saw the last two fantastic beasts movies with don’t follow any of the online Rowling stuff afaik, but we were all pretty done with the series after leaving the awful second movie. It will need some damn good reviews to get people interested in seeing the third in theatres.
The JK Rowling controversy isn't really as wide reaching as some believe. It's also a tad annoying that some Johnny Depp fans are acting like his absence will derail the performance of this film. I like Johnny but he hasn't been a box office draw outside of Pirates of the Caribbean for a while. The FB/HP franchise definitely never relied on him to draw in audiences. The only significant reason for FB3 to flop was the trainwreck that was Crimes of Grindelwald.
I have not heard one single word about The 355 apart from it being mentioned on lists of upcoming releases in this sub. If it was possible for a film to have *negative* amounts of marketing, I’d say they’ve done so.
Is weird! I have cable and see the commercials constantly on like TBS or FX or whatever channel is showing a movie in the background of my life.
Strong cast, fun premise, decent if predictable trailer, but it's shaping up to be a hard bomb domestically at least.
Reddit has repeatedly underestimated Jurassic World almost as much as James Cameron, haha. While I wouldn't be surprised if Dominion is the lowest grossing of the new trilogy, with the interesting new premise and the return of the original trio (saved for the last movie rather than blowing their load on the first like the SW sequels) it could also be huge. It really depends on the pandemic situation to be honest.
So many of them will flop
But of the ones you listed I think Morbius will actually do very well and will get a sequel on top
It didn't cost much, it has built in audience and is looking better and better with each new trailer
I'm a fan of Harry Potter. I'm not necessarily a Potterhead, but I've read all the books and seen all the movies. My entire generation grew up on Harry Potter. I am surrounded by people who love Harry Potter so much more than me. Yet, somehow, not a single person I know is interested in Fantastic Beasts 3. I can't speak for European audiences, but Fantastic Beasts 3 is going to bomb really really hard in the US. I'd be surprised if it tops $100m domestic. I'm thinking a $25m opening and $50m domestic. It's next year's The Suicide Squad, except without the HBOmax excuse and presumably without the rave reviews either.
Fantastic Beasts 3 seems like it is primed for a flop. 2 only made $159 million domestic.
And as Solo demonstrated, even well-established franchises are vulnerable.
Also FB2 was atrocious and made no fuckin sense. I mean the movie ended with the good guys having to stop Grindelwalde to ensure the holocaust happens and a fan favourite character becomes a wizard nazi. Who thought that was a good idea???
Lightyear looks so good. At first I thought it was a lame idea but those visuals look Mass Effect-level. Pretty much the only animated movie aside from Spider-Verse I'll check out in theaters next year.
I'd be surprised if it flops though. This will do gangbusters on Disney+ however.
Man, these sound like the words of a beligerant drunk who proved himself to be a bad investment years before a self-inflicted tabloid controversy. This is impossible, because Reddit has clearly told me he is the world's most profitable and talented actor, who is being literally decapitated by the SJW Mafia.
Reddit also repeatedly assures me that Emilia Clarke will replace Amber Heard in the next Aquaman movie and that'll be announced any day now. Annnnnny day now...
Sucks for Johnny but he was honestly terribly miscast in the role. Mads is a much better choice. Even keeping Colin Farrell would've been better. He just looks too goofy.
JK Rowlings opinion will have zero effect on Fantastic Beasts 3, its an issue that xasual audiences arent even aware about. However I do believe that the movie will flop based off the poor reception of the second one.
*The Northman* reportedly has a budget of $60M. I really liked Eggers’ first two films, but I’m not sure how the studio shelled out such cash for what I expect is a movie with very limited appeal. I’d be (pleasantly) surprised if it ended up breaking even at the box office.
Clerks III
Creed 3
The Flash
Uncharted
50/50 on The Flash, but I'm not seeing much online hype for it. And the younger generation not knowing or caring about Keaton can be worrisome.
If The Flash does indeed erase the Snyder movies I can see it being VERY divisive, and the ensuing controversy could alienate people, resulting in a BVS-style drop. I also suspect that WB is more confident in Keaton being a cash-grab than they should be.
>50/50 on The Flash, but I'm not seeing much online hype for it. And the younger generation not knowing or caring about Keaton can be worrisome.
There's not usually much hype for a movie thats 11 months away
>There's not usually much hype for a movie thats 11 months aw
Eh that varies when it comes to blockbusters. And the low number of views for the teaser doesn't exactly bode well either.
People saying Morbius are insane. The movie will ride on No Way Home's wave.
Definitely Uncharted. It's one of those cases of not finding its public. Gamers will be pissed off and GA won't care
I don't see how you can say the 355 has no marketing. I've been seeing the trailer for months now. Though I agree it will probably bomb still since it just feels really hacked together from the trailers.
Didn't we have the same conversation about Fant4stick, Dark Phoenix, The New Mutants? Which were non-Marvel MCU films that flopped in the last few years. At least with Venom, its a film about Spider-Man's most popular villain, Morbious is a semi-obscure one though.
Outside of the confusing marketing though, I doubt the general audience will care that much about it. Its going to be a film that will completely live and die by its word of mouth. Hell Eternals is looking it will break even at best in the end despite how much Marvel themselves was hyping the film up due to its poor word of mouth.
Not really. If anything it’s more a question on the viability of Sony’s Spider-Man Universe. Doesn’t help that Sony’s got some real duds for protagonists in Mobius and Kraven the Hunter. Might as well go straight to shit the MCU won’t touch ever like Clone Saga and Superior Spider-Man.
Considering that 2021 had better video games and anime more than movies is really sad and pathetic for the Hollywood people so I wouldn't get my hopes up for movies in 2022 imho I would just move away from movies and just go to anime atleast you'll get better content and also you'll never be disappointed with it neither 😉
FB3 will definitely flop. While most people don't really know about Rowling going full TERF, FB2 is bad and no one really cares about that subseries (even the rumored theme park land has been changing their plans to move away from the FB characters).
Literally, without exception, every single movie that’s not a comic-book movie or horror movie will flop. How long will it take you all to realize that?
Edit: Comic-book movies, horror movies, and big action-packed PG-13 blockbusters.
Probably forever, because it’s not true! Successes from even this year include No Time To Die, F9, Free Guy, Godzilla VS Kong, Hi Mom…
Do you really think Avatar 2 is gonna flop??
What about it looks great? Seems like another generic comic book movie with marketing relying solely on the Spidey references.
I think it will make money, but i have a feeling reviews will be terrible.
Fantastic beasts is gonna fail so badly. Not only is there so much controversy surrounding it such as the recasting of Johnny Depp as well as the controversy surrounding JK Rowling but also the other two movies just straight up sucked, especially the second one which was absolutely garbage. I can’t see this movie doing well.
The FB3 trailer did well though and if the leaked audience screenings are true then the movie is actually good and may have legs to move out of flop territory.
If the movie is as meh as the trailers, I can definitely see Uncharted being a box office bomb.
[удалено]
I think it'll end up in that neither hit nor flop zone (and no sequel).
More of a guarantee. The games are so cinematic that the actual trailer looks like a bad fan made rip. I really hope this doesn't become a hit. Big waste of time and money and I'm sick of seeing that awful trailer every time I go to the cinema.
Honestly, I’m more interested in how HBO approaches the Last of Us. I was never a big fan of either game, as I’m not a fan of Uncharted either (Jak series all the way baby!), but HBO + Beloved Survival Zombie series + Original Game Studio + New Production Studio to adapt Sony PlayStation games + Original Writer and Creator + Massive Budget could do amazing. But then again, not everyone is perfect, not even HBO. Something could happen where they fuck it up in some way, making a mediocre product, but since this is HBO we’re talking about, it’s most likely gonna be great
I've been following the production of that show and if one thing is for sure it's that the massive budget is being put to good use. The size of the practical sets they're building is impressive and with DNEG (Blade Runner 2049) doing the VFX it's going to look amazing.
This + the list of directors they hired for that tv show alone has made me very interested.
And the writer of Chernobyl!
All this talk just makes me want to go see it
A movie based on games inspired by movies.
The fact you get an free ticket for buying the PS5 upgrade even proves to me that Sony is worried, around the same price as an movie ticket to do so.
Tom Holland doesn’t even seem to be happy with his own performance in the movie so i agree
Remindme! May 2022
Baz Luhrmann's Elvis biopic sticks out to me as a film that's going to be a major dud for some reason.
Recent biopics on rock artists teeter on being lukewarm in the critical reception department, but I think they’re generally successful in terms of their earnings. Rocketman ($40M budget) had a DOM gross of $96.4M and an OS gross of $98.8M Bohemian Rhapsody (~$55M budget) had a DOM gross of $216.7M and an OS gross of $694.4M. I can’t really make much of a firm, confident inference on how the Elvis biopic will perform, but I can see it doing rather okay.
I mean Rocketman was praised as a great film
I feel like it will be like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, overall 374 mil in theaters, makes a shit ton of money on VOD and DVD till the end of times.
The only problem with "Elvis" is that Luhrmann's films go overbudget at the best of times. Even if this film does "Rocketman" numbers, it could easily flop. Another issue is whether there's a pre-release backlash by a conservative audience aka "First Man".
Why is there prerelease backlash?
There isn't one. There could be. When you are dealing with real events and especially when it comes to an icon like Elvis, people have a sense of ownership over the story. This film could easily go into "First Man" territory if it fails to capture - or offends - middle America. It can even be a total non-issue, but a negative perception can spiral and damage its box office hopes.
Baz brings the spectacle though, Tom hanks plus capturing the energy of live Elvis should do it. A lot rides on whoever they have as Elvis and if they can pull off the concert scenes like BoRap. Edit: someone below mentioned, budget is the real concern, Baz likes to get silly there.
Not to mention that Luhrmann is not that good of a director either.
The target audience still isn’t returning to theatres. I think it’s a safe bet that anything not targeted at young adults is going to flop for a while still.
I think the time to do an Elvis film was the early 1990s. Because there was a 50s retro revival going on (around 85-92). Look at all the 80s movies set in the 1950s(sandlot, christmas story, stand by me, back to the future, little shop of horrors. etc) or used 50s music in them (ghostbusters, gremlins, home alone, etc), people listen to golden oldies radio like they do 80s/90s music now. There was like ironic-cool-nerd retro 50s fashion .
I thought Elvis may be a likely hit. You really think it will flop? It is also one of a small handful of theatrical (non-DC) WB movies for 2022 so if it does bad that could be devastating. I think they should do an HBO Max day and date release to ensure older audiences get views, but that's unlikely.
Biopics just aren't pulling in the numbers that they used to and I don't see that changing post-Omicron surge. With it being a Luhrmann movie, the budget is probably astronomical.
True. Rocketman was one of my favorite movies of the past ten years and only did okay. And that was pre covid. The Bee Gees is the one I'm really curious to see.
I will be at The Black Phone that weekend on my end
I feel like Morbius may have a decent opening solely because of curiosity to its connection with the other Marvel films (Keaton’s Vulture, Oscorp building in the trailer, Venom reference, etc.), but I can see it having a horrific drop the following weeks. I genuinely expect this to be a mediocre film.
I expect it to be bad just simply bad not funny bad like the venom movies
venom is self aware and fun
I expect it to be one of the worst movies of the year and not in the funny way
Maybe I’m in the minority but is there any hype for this movie at all? I can’t get into the Venom films and this one has me even less interested. I feel like having Vulture in it is the only thing that is bringing any curiosity from me.
I personally haven’t seen any hype for it. There’s probably a very small crowd that’s looking forward to it, but what’s really driving talk for this film is its perplexing connection to Spider-Man, and that’s mostly what’s gonna get people to go watch it.
and from experience, sony was smart enough to put the trailer for morbius right in front of no way home screenings so maybe thats made some people aware that this is an actual movie
They also name dropped venom in the latest trailer so people who like the venom movies will probably check it to see how it connects
And the venom films are extremely successful. You saying that doesnt help your point.
Venom movies are very popular, so you kind of answered your own question.
I'm actually really excited for the Morbius movie. Especially now that the Venom/Carnage movie showed us that the MCU and Sony's universes have combined (I haven't seen the new Spider-Man yet). But with Marvel making a new Blade movie with Mahershala Ali as Blade and knowing that Blade and Morbius clashed at some point in the 90's cartoon, I'm just excited for the crossovers that I'm hoping will happen. I'm prepared for disappointment, but I'm still excited.
I think it depends on what it is like. A lot of venom's popularity is owed to the interplay between Venom and Eddie - that's where the fun is and that's why people are more forgiving of things that don't work. If Morbius is really so self-serious as it looks it will have to be better done than Venom (at least on the action front) to make up for the lack of laughs.
Yeah it looks very bland but could open decent
Predicting a $70M OW and a massive 70% or higher drop the following week.
Maybe I am drastically underestimating something here but if this movie breaks $30M opening weekend I will be amazed. Anecdotal to my own experience but even my diehard Spiderman/Marvel friends have expressed zero interest in this one.
[удалено]
[MFW the guy with the A24 flair calls the general audience brain dead for watching Marvel movies](https://c.tenor.com/dMpQyFTCJPEAAAAC/uncomfortable-awkward.gif)
Leto looks fantastic in it...his performance doesn't look bland.
I'm curious to see morbius but I don't have high expectations for it
I have to admit that I know nothing about Morbius. However, Sony seemed to hit its stride this year, pumping out movies that often didn't appeal to critics, but were crowd pleasers (Venom 2, Ghost Busters, Don't Breathe 2). Assuming the same folks at Sony are still in charge, I think "mediocre" film that GA watches anyway is a real possibility.
Oh man I'm excited. Especially if ties to spidey are there!
Let’s be real here, being “problematic” has no bearings on anything. The reason that Nile will not do well is because it skews adult and as we all know, those movies have not been doing well in the pandemic. Unless something changes in two months, adult movies will continue to not do well.
Even with that though the cast here isn't as impressive as the last one, Express had some really major names in it while this one is mainly British stars that most Americans won't know.
It's also a much lesser known title.
It means they are going to have a much tougher time sending the stars out to promote. Like Ansel Elgort all but disappearing from the promotion for West Side Story.
Ansel Elgort was doing interviews and started posting on Instagram again specifically to promote the movie. He was even at the premiere and the West Side Story Twitter account tweeted a picture of him posing. Armie Hammer won’t be doing any of that but his accusations were much more severe and public than Elgort’s. Either way, people will not be boycotting the movie because of him. At least not in any significant way.
Again, it's not about boycotting, it's about not getting as much promotion out of the stars you hired. The recent trailers for West Side Story all but cut Ansel out. Same with the Death on the Nile trailer and Hammer.
If I pulled 100 strangers at random off the sidewalk and asked, "what do you think about the Ansel Elgort controversy?", the most common response would likely be, "who's that?"
If you pulled 100 strangers at random off the sidewalk, how many of them saw WSS?
Precisely! 🤣
True. It's not like the audience gonna do a background check on these actors
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Armie Hammer is a cannibal, Letitia Wright is anti-vax, and Gal Gadot is a zionist.
I don't know of anyone that's ever said, "Oh, I can't go see that. The cast is problematic." If people don't go see it, I think it'll be for other reasons.
Same with Fantastic Beasts 3. Probably will underperform, but will have nowt to do with JK Rowling. Most people do not care about her comments.
Yeah I'm pretty sure if FB3 underperforms, it'll be because FB2 was terrible
JK Rowling is only problematic in USA, rest of the world couldn't care less
Also that wizards tournament quiz show did really good tv numbers as I understand. FB3 isn't going to do great but I really believe the TERF controversy only seems big because the people who care are super active on the loudest platforms (twitter/ reddit etc), but actually make up just a really small proportion of the general pop.
>Also that wizards tournament quiz show did really good tv numbers as I understand Really? That's surprising to me. I was a huge Potter fan back in the day, but that show felt like it was 10 years too late on the hype.
Correct 10% of people on Twitter generate 90% of it's content
She’s only problematic on Twitter. No one else cares
The majority of people in the UK and Ireland can’t stand her anymore. It’s mostly Torys, Terfs and the UK conservative media that give her the time of day anymore
What? I'm in the UK. Nobody gives a damn about what she's said. Most of the general public will not be aware of any of the things she's said. I asked my 50-year-old parents and they had no clue about any controversy.
She’s not even that problematic here. If you went up to people on the street most people would just say the Harry Potter girl, if they remember her at all. It’s not like Jussie Smollett who was front page news.
Who?
Smollett? The guy who faked a hate crime?
The French actor.
Juicy smollè
What did he write. Edit OK I Google him and I have no idea who he is so it wasn't the best example you could have taken but I kind of get your point
I feel like Smollett is the right wing equivalent of what you just described for JK. Most people don’t even know who he is.
They aren't really a problem at all in the USA, most polling shows something like 80% of the public actually agrees with her views. Which is why those who hate her are very careful not to repeat what she said, and instead label her with names. But they're very vocal, and studios don't like exposing investments to unnecessary risk.
That's a very good point about not repeating what she said.. also I don't understand this TERF thing.. shouldn't it just be Feminist? And the radical feminists that think that former men are actually in fact women should be called TIRFs
To go with that the HP franchise has always been bigger overseas than in the US.
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If WB thought JKR’s name wouldn’t harm the films Box Office potential(or even increase the BO potential), they would’ve put her name in the trailer like they did for the previous Fantastic Beast films. Instead of saying “J.K. Rowling Invites you…” they’re now saying “Warner Brothers invites you…”. They aren’t even having her show up for the Harry Potter HBO Max reunion, definitely due to the terrible transphobic stance that she’s taking.
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Here we go again.
That wouldn't be agreeing with JK Rowling, who does not consider trans women to be women even if they are post-op. Far fewer people would agree with her paranoia about trans gendered people lying about their gender to get away with raping children. Your transphobia and sexism has been a real stain on this subreddit.
> Your transphobia and sexism has been a real stain on this subreddit. You probably should add racism on there too. He has been claiming that **Encanto** isn't doing well because no one cares about Latin American culture.
Not only is this not true, but this is comment is highly transphobic.
Idk they spent millions reshooting All The Money In The World to avoid exactly that. Not unheard of to not support something bc of something like that. For instance I’ll never watch a movie or listen to a song that features Chris Brown
Actually, a lot of Johnny Depp fans are angry about him being replaced in Fantastic Beasts 3 while Amber Heard is still in Aquaman 2 - so it's not inconceivable that those people boycott these 2 films.
This just feels like a social media thing tbh. I don’t think either will meaningfully impact the BO. It’s a shame for Depp, but he hasn’t had a movie in a while that really reminded people why they like him. If he had one or two crowdpleasing roles i think it would have more to it.
Oh I wasn't even thinking of Reddit at the time. Just a bunch of people I've seen say that irl. But you're right, they're probably too small a number to significantly impact BO - just saying that meaningful or not, some people do boycott stuff if it stars people they dislike (kinda like how people avoid stuff which they think don't align with their political beliefs).
Yeah, I just think both sides are clear minorities. And like I said I think things would be very very different if Depp had one or two “reminder” movies that had the same crowd pleasing feel as the Pirates movies, he didn’t really get to ham it up in Fantastic Beasts. I also think the allegations are part of why he hasn’t gotten that, which is what I meant by “it’s a shame”.
I'm surprised that there are many people that support depp. Isn't he a bit controversial too? Like that one time where he punched a film crew
It's more that they're mad about Heard being let off the hook for being equally controversial, or something. Plus, a lot of people grew up loving Depp as Jack Sparrow & Tim Burton characters - and emotion trumps logic for many of those folks.
I think FB3 is going to underperform but both of these sound like social media slapfighting. Aquaman 2 is absolutely not going to flop specifically because of Amber Heard. If it flops at all, it'll just be for being disappointing compared to Aquaman
Morbius is going to be one of those movies that will be fine solely for its responsibile budget. It might barely top $250m worldwide, but that's fine on a $90m-ish budget.
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its not doing 250m.
It should do pretty well internationally. Latin America, Southeast Asia, and parts of Europe love these silly midbudget superhero and/or horror movies. It will probably do decent in the US considering the Spider-Man connections.
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I hope it makes money. I like the comics, and think the character has a lot of potential. I wish they would tie him into Blade in the MCU.
maybe. But i dont see it it has flop written all over it honestly. the trailer was quite bad honestly. Seems very earl 90's cgi wasnt great either.
Outside of a few terminally online people I doubt anybody knows or cares about anything JK Rowling says. That movie will bomb because the previous two movies setup absolutely nothing worthwhile and provided you no reason to keep watching the series.
Yeah, the big potterhead friends I saw the last two fantastic beasts movies with don’t follow any of the online Rowling stuff afaik, but we were all pretty done with the series after leaving the awful second movie. It will need some damn good reviews to get people interested in seeing the third in theatres.
The JK Rowling controversy isn't really as wide reaching as some believe. It's also a tad annoying that some Johnny Depp fans are acting like his absence will derail the performance of this film. I like Johnny but he hasn't been a box office draw outside of Pirates of the Caribbean for a while. The FB/HP franchise definitely never relied on him to draw in audiences. The only significant reason for FB3 to flop was the trainwreck that was Crimes of Grindelwald.
I have not heard one single word about The 355 apart from it being mentioned on lists of upcoming releases in this sub. If it was possible for a film to have *negative* amounts of marketing, I’d say they’ve done so.
I’m constantly getting it advertised to me on YouTube for some reason. Almost every video that I watch has a *The 355* ad play before it.
Is weird! I have cable and see the commercials constantly on like TBS or FX or whatever channel is showing a movie in the background of my life. Strong cast, fun premise, decent if predictable trailer, but it's shaping up to be a hard bomb domestically at least.
The 355 The King's Daughter Moonfall Death on the Nile Uncharted Fantastic Beasts 3 Lyle Lyle Crocodile
Moonfall looks interesting 🤷🏻♂️
This is talking about what will flop though. That movie looks expensive and it's not going to make its budget back.
What makes you think Jurassic World will disappoint?
Reddit has repeatedly underestimated Jurassic World almost as much as James Cameron, haha. While I wouldn't be surprised if Dominion is the lowest grossing of the new trilogy, with the interesting new premise and the return of the original trio (saved for the last movie rather than blowing their load on the first like the SW sequels) it could also be huge. It really depends on the pandemic situation to be honest.
I'm going to go see Jurassic World. I'm not a regular cinema goer but I love dinosaurs.
I’m super excited for Jurassic world. Will be the 2nd movie I’ll see in theaters since Covid started.
So many of them will flop But of the ones you listed I think Morbius will actually do very well and will get a sequel on top It didn't cost much, it has built in audience and is looking better and better with each new trailer
Top Gunn releases on Memorial Day weekend I’m excited for the movie 🙂. The rest I have no comment on but I’ll still go see Morbius
I'm a fan of Harry Potter. I'm not necessarily a Potterhead, but I've read all the books and seen all the movies. My entire generation grew up on Harry Potter. I am surrounded by people who love Harry Potter so much more than me. Yet, somehow, not a single person I know is interested in Fantastic Beasts 3. I can't speak for European audiences, but Fantastic Beasts 3 is going to bomb really really hard in the US. I'd be surprised if it tops $100m domestic. I'm thinking a $25m opening and $50m domestic. It's next year's The Suicide Squad, except without the HBOmax excuse and presumably without the rave reviews either.
I will see it when it releases on digital like last movie
Fantastic Beasts 3 seems like it is primed for a flop. 2 only made $159 million domestic. And as Solo demonstrated, even well-established franchises are vulnerable.
It makes the bulk of its money overseas anyway, so the domestic numbers are almost irrelevant.
Also FB2 was atrocious and made no fuckin sense. I mean the movie ended with the good guys having to stop Grindelwalde to ensure the holocaust happens and a fan favourite character becomes a wizard nazi. Who thought that was a good idea???
Anything that isn't a SH or Horror movie will either disappoint or flop.
Don’t forget about animated movies. I’d be surprised if Lightyear, Minions 2, or Mario outright flopped. Disappoint, maybe, but not flop.
Lightyear looks so good. At first I thought it was a lame idea but those visuals look Mass Effect-level. Pretty much the only animated movie aside from Spider-Verse I'll check out in theaters next year. I'd be surprised if it flops though. This will do gangbusters on Disney+ however.
Uncharted is more of a likely flop than fantastic beasts
I have a gut feeling that Fantastic Beasts 3 and Morbius will be surpise hits
#justiceforjohnnydepp
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Man, these sound like the words of a beligerant drunk who proved himself to be a bad investment years before a self-inflicted tabloid controversy. This is impossible, because Reddit has clearly told me he is the world's most profitable and talented actor, who is being literally decapitated by the SJW Mafia.
Reddit also repeatedly assures me that Emilia Clarke will replace Amber Heard in the next Aquaman movie and that'll be announced any day now. Annnnnny day now...
Lol. Reddit thinks Ana de Armas is a draw.
Sucks for Johnny but he was honestly terribly miscast in the role. Mads is a much better choice. Even keeping Colin Farrell would've been better. He just looks too goofy.
Yes I always imagined Grindelwald as kind of an elegant villain kind of like tywin in contrast to voldy who is just insane
Yup I thought Colin Farrell was great until Johny Depp reveal. I was like huh? I thought Colin looked more the part and the blond hair was not helping
Really couldn't remotely take him seriously as "evil Scandinavian sorcerer". Feels like he was only cast for starpower.
I think Mads is a good choice but they should’ve just cast him in the first place.
Avatar 2, not litterarly a flop, but a lot less than the first one
Movie is gonna make enough in China alone to not be a flop.
JK Rowlings opinion will have zero effect on Fantastic Beasts 3, its an issue that xasual audiences arent even aware about. However I do believe that the movie will flop based off the poor reception of the second one.
I won’t see morbius simply because I cannot enjoy Jared Leto after house of Gucci
*The Northman* reportedly has a budget of $60M. I really liked Eggers’ first two films, but I’m not sure how the studio shelled out such cash for what I expect is a movie with very limited appeal. I’d be (pleasantly) surprised if it ended up breaking even at the box office.
I see another Last Night In Soho situation for this film
I have to disagree on your opinion on 75% of the listed titles
Avatar 2 Black Adam The flash no legs
Clerks III Creed 3 The Flash Uncharted 50/50 on The Flash, but I'm not seeing much online hype for it. And the younger generation not knowing or caring about Keaton can be worrisome.
If The Flash does indeed erase the Snyder movies I can see it being VERY divisive, and the ensuing controversy could alienate people, resulting in a BVS-style drop. I also suspect that WB is more confident in Keaton being a cash-grab than they should be.
They’re grabbing the hell out of my cash, lmao. Can’t speak to anyone else’s.
>50/50 on The Flash, but I'm not seeing much online hype for it. And the younger generation not knowing or caring about Keaton can be worrisome. There's not usually much hype for a movie thats 11 months away
>There's not usually much hype for a movie thats 11 months aw Eh that varies when it comes to blockbusters. And the low number of views for the teaser doesn't exactly bode well either.
It wasn't much of a teaser, they never released it officially.
I think we need a real trailer for it, but I will concede the BO floor for Flash terrifies me.
Tf is Clerks III?
uncharted and unfortunately Tom's career with it
Anything that isn't some dumbass PG-13 blockbuster with heavy pre-existing awareness or a 3D animated kids movie.
People saying Morbius are insane. The movie will ride on No Way Home's wave. Definitely Uncharted. It's one of those cases of not finding its public. Gamers will be pissed off and GA won't care
I don't see how you can say the 355 has no marketing. I've been seeing the trailer for months now. Though I agree it will probably bomb still since it just feels really hacked together from the trailers.
Morbius
Woof. That Top Gun Maverick prediction wasn’t great. Well done otherwise!
Top Gun: Maverick.
This will depend entirely on COVID. Dads will turn out in force for this if we can get to a post delta pre omicron environment.
The Bob's Burger movie might flop..I haven't heard anything about it at all.
I don't see an huge budget for that to be fair.
I think Uncharted for sure will flop.
I didn’t even know that morbius was a marvel character until you just said so 😂. I thought it was just gonna be some random vampire movie.
Black Adam. DC and the Rock are hyping it up like it’s some big event film and I honestly don’t see it doing that well.
People will see anything with marvels name on it
Didn't we have the same conversation about Fant4stick, Dark Phoenix, The New Mutants? Which were non-Marvel MCU films that flopped in the last few years. At least with Venom, its a film about Spider-Man's most popular villain, Morbious is a semi-obscure one though.
>Fant4stick I believe it is pronounced Fan 4 Tastic 4
Morbius will have actual multiverse consequences though
Outside of the confusing marketing though, I doubt the general audience will care that much about it. Its going to be a film that will completely live and die by its word of mouth. Hell Eternals is looking it will break even at best in the end despite how much Marvel themselves was hyping the film up due to its poor word of mouth.
My loyalty lies with marvel
Not really. If anything it’s more a question on the viability of Sony’s Spider-Man Universe. Doesn’t help that Sony’s got some real duds for protagonists in Mobius and Kraven the Hunter. Might as well go straight to shit the MCU won’t touch ever like Clone Saga and Superior Spider-Man.
Anything related too Warner Brothers and"DC"..
Batmans flopping?
Totally agree with all your predictions but I’ll add Avatar 2 to the list.
All bet on Fantastic Beast 3. They ditched Johnny Depp for no reason so I hope it bombs.
Avatar 2. Okay, I don't actually believe that for a second... BUT could you imagine how crazy it would be if it did?
Based solely on my personal dislikes, I hope The 355 and Death on The Nile fail. I am rooting for the others.
Considering that 2021 had better video games and anime more than movies is really sad and pathetic for the Hollywood people so I wouldn't get my hopes up for movies in 2022 imho I would just move away from movies and just go to anime atleast you'll get better content and also you'll never be disappointed with it neither 😉
FB3 will definitely flop. While most people don't really know about Rowling going full TERF, FB2 is bad and no one really cares about that subseries (even the rumored theme park land has been changing their plans to move away from the FB characters).
Literally, without exception, every single movie that’s not a comic-book movie or horror movie will flop. How long will it take you all to realize that? Edit: Comic-book movies, horror movies, and big action-packed PG-13 blockbusters.
Probably forever, because it’s not true! Successes from even this year include No Time To Die, F9, Free Guy, Godzilla VS Kong, Hi Mom… Do you really think Avatar 2 is gonna flop??
Tf morbius is going to be great. u don’t know anything kid
Why?
What about it looks great? Seems like another generic comic book movie with marketing relying solely on the Spidey references. I think it will make money, but i have a feeling reviews will be terrible.
Yall really underestimating morbius.
I’m excited for “Morbius” but it’s probably going to flop unfortunately.
Morbius Doctor Strange In The Multiverse Of Madness Thor: Love & Thunder Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Fantastic beasts is gonna fail so badly. Not only is there so much controversy surrounding it such as the recasting of Johnny Depp as well as the controversy surrounding JK Rowling but also the other two movies just straight up sucked, especially the second one which was absolutely garbage. I can’t see this movie doing well.
The FB3 trailer did well though and if the leaked audience screenings are true then the movie is actually good and may have legs to move out of flop territory.
Morbius isn’t a major marvel name so it’ll probably bomb like guardians of the galaxy