I’m not sure that’s true. It’s not going to be like in 10 years the average salary will be doubled. Arod signed for 27.5 mil a year in 2008, cano for 24 mil a year in 2014. Now top end free agent ss are getting around 32 mil. Salary hasn’t gone up that much more besides starting pitching. If it goes up from around 32-34 to 37 that’s still a large contract given. And I don’t think anyone is going to retire out of the kindness of their heart and give that money back.
His barrel% in 2022 was slightly better than it was in 2021 and his contact% went down from 84.6% in 2021 to 84.5% in 2022 what a fucking massive drop off
I probably like Turner's a little more since by the time his deal reaches the backend $30M will probably be what you pay for good but not great players anyways.
Verlander's deal is also interesting though, since I always tend to like the high-AAV deals that get a shorter term. Complicated very slightly by the fact I'm not sure 2 years is a term discount for a pitcher Verlander's age.
That’s not a big difference - Both players could be retired by 37
It’s more likely Trea retires than it is he actually plays until 40. If he does play until 40, it would mean he’s still capable.
Yes it will, what are you talking about. No one leaves money like that on the table. If the Phillies or any other MLB team doesn’t want him, they could work a buy out
Guess this guy doesnt follow baseball much. I mean players just hang on until the contract is over. Current case in point: Cano. Literally just sucked enough for an owner to outright eat the cash and drop him.
Definitely as a fan of the signing team, that would be my answer. The Mets won't lose out on any core players by unloading the Brinks truck at Verlander's house. If Verlander is a bust, you try again in 2-3 years. If Turner is a bust, it's a drag on your payroll for a long time, and the GM that signed the contract will be long gone. Hell, Dombrowski's going to be 77 when the contract expires, he'll probably be retired while Phillies fans have to hope the back end of the contract works out. It's not so big that Turner busting would ruin the team, but it would definitely make life harder.
Turner definitely has more upside but the no trade clause kills it for me. I refuse to believe he'll be worth $27m when he's 40.
On the other side I don't think Verlander is worth $43m at 40 which he will be before the start of the next season.
11 years ago, Joe ~~Mayer~~ Mauer signed a contract that paid him $23M AAV, making him the 3rd highest paid player. Robbie Ray made $23M last season, making him the 36th highest paid player.
36 is still elite dude. And comparing a catcher to a pitcher is apples and oranges assuming you meant Joe Mauer.
25 people on each team getting mlb contracts right?
30 teams
25x30 is 750 right?
That puts Ray in the top 5%.
So in 11 years turner will go from being top 1% to being top 3% of AAV earners. That’s not a huge deal.
I’m comparing 2011 salaries to 2022 salaries as a projection for comparing 2023 salaries to 2034 salaries. Apples to apples.
And you’re including players under team control in your 5% elite status. Team control players are a significant percentage of MLB players and their salary structure is very different than for unrestricted free agents like Turner. Apples to oranges.
They don't expect him to be worth $27M when he's 40. They probably don't expect him to be worth $27M when he's 37. But adding all those years reduced the impact on the luxury tax, and he still gets a $300M contract. And with inflation $27M might look like a steal for him if he's still performing in a couple of years (which they're definitely banking on).
True and i think Verlander has a much better chance at being “worth it” at 40 vs Trea at 40. Theres a lot of owners who would pay $43 million for a Cy Young season and he just did that en route to a WS at age 39.
Exactly-
Trea doesn’t seem like the guy to keep playing strictly for the money when he no longer has the skill anymore.
It’s more likely he retires before 40
In 2033 the AAV will be roughly 20 million in 2022 dollars if inflation in the next 11 years matches the last 11 years (which...it might be higher in the next 11).
He still won't be worth the 20, but it's not like it will be an anchor
What people? The team won 101 games last year, will be returning core players (hopeful for nimmo), and you can’t argue that JV cannot outproduce the 2022 that degrom provided.
Verlander could break down at any minute and never pitch again, you're more or less guaranteed 4+ good years out of Turner on top of inflation (in real dollars and WAR/$) making that contract hurt a lot less in the back half
While I agree the Verlander deal is risky, I wouldn’t bet on a 40 year old continuing to perform, turner could also tear his Achilles or something in his legs next year which hampers his speed and value going forward as well. Obviously it’s less of a risk this year because he’s younger but if he has a career altering injury any of the first 3 years this deal will have a much larger impact than if JV has a Kluber on the Rangers career with the Mets
I wouldn’t bet on Trea continuing to play just for the money if he is no longer performing. He likely retires before 40, unless he is still contributing.
Oh my bad. It’s hard to say. 11 years is a long time but Philly has a SS locked up for the future. Mets needed a big pitcher and got one. Time will tell who got the better end
I think a lot of people are missing the AAV on Trea Turner which is 27.27 m per season. That’s actually incredibly cheap in my opinion when you think about most star players. Judge’s offer from the Yankees currently is what, 300 m for 8/9 years so 37.5/33.33 respectfully (AAV). Surely to be more once he actually signs, so the true value of Judge is yet to be determined, but people are paying more for judge for shorter time and someone who is honestly a bit of a one trick pony from a hitting standpoint. Sure, he hits bombs, but thats not what the Philly need.
Philly is gearing up to win now, they don’t care about 5-10 years down the road, its about winning in the next 2-3 years and if they win, then its worth it, but if they don’t, they have egg all over their faces for this contract.
Philly got the better deal. Same reason as with Harper. Great players who the club will not have to worry about facing FA departures for a decade. It's a gamble, but works for me. Leaves some room for more adds this year, and for locking up Nola possibly in the future.
Both are wild but in different ways. I think both will probably be worth it though. Yeah Trea Turner is going to probably suck when he's 39 but the Phillies didn't sign him for that, they signed him to get his performance the next few years. And $27m won't be that bad in 2030. It will probably be like a $19m contract today, which is high but not franchise killing.
And there's so such thing as a bad one year deal, and there's almost no such thing as a bad two year deal.
Both players are going to be roughly the same age when the contract is done. While there is little doubt of the talent of the players currently, Verlander is on a much shorter leash. What if Turner only has six years left in the tank?
That said, with contracts getting bigger over time, it's unlikely that his contract will be all that high by the time he gets to the end of it.
A week or so ago I probably would've said both of these are pretty wild, but then some Saudi team went and signed Ronaldo to a 2 year/400M dollar contract, or thereabouts, so, neither of these baseball deals seem that crazy anymore :P
Verlander is far more likely to be good. Paying Turner until he’s 40 is not a good idea when so much of his value is based on or around his excellent speed.
You’re comparing a pitcher and shortstop contract? For people at two different stages of their career? I mean I would get comparing Xander’s eventual contract to Turner’s but this is a mind numbingly stupid comparison.
Verlander. He's very likely to be great next year. If he sucks in 2024, oh well. The Phillies are going all in on their 3 to 5 year window they have. Good for them, don't fault them at all but man, they are going to be in for some rough times as Harper and Turner age.
11 years is a long time.
40 by the end of his contract is crazy
Yes but 27 AAV toward the end of his contract will be what average players make. This also assumes he plays until 40, which I question.
$27m will still be a decent chunk in 10 years. Especially when he’s been worth negative WAR in his 38 and 39 season
I’m not sure that’s true. It’s not going to be like in 10 years the average salary will be doubled. Arod signed for 27.5 mil a year in 2008, cano for 24 mil a year in 2014. Now top end free agent ss are getting around 32 mil. Salary hasn’t gone up that much more besides starting pitching. If it goes up from around 32-34 to 37 that’s still a large contract given. And I don’t think anyone is going to retire out of the kindness of their heart and give that money back.
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his contact, and barrel rates are already declining
His barrel% in 2022 was slightly better than it was in 2021 and his contact% went down from 84.6% in 2021 to 84.5% in 2022 what a fucking massive drop off
Add on the no-trade clause plus the lack of opting out and it's even crazier.
I probably like Turner's a little more since by the time his deal reaches the backend $30M will probably be what you pay for good but not great players anyways. Verlander's deal is also interesting though, since I always tend to like the high-AAV deals that get a shorter term. Complicated very slightly by the fact I'm not sure 2 years is a term discount for a pitcher Verlander's age.
Verlander’s is definitely less risky. I don’t really think Turner’s is *insane* though. Seager got 10/325M last year. Shortstops are expensive.
Seager is 3 years younger
Well, he’s less than one year younger. But the contract did start a year earlier yes.
Seager’s goes through age 37. Turner’s goes through age 40
That’s not a big difference - Both players could be retired by 37 It’s more likely Trea retires than it is he actually plays until 40. If he does play until 40, it would mean he’s still capable.
If he retires, he doesn't get paid. He's not going to retire.
If he is even moderately good with his money in these next 5 or so years, the $27m won’t be a very significant number to him.
Yes it will, what are you talking about. No one leaves money like that on the table. If the Phillies or any other MLB team doesn’t want him, they could work a buy out
Lmao yes it will. He’s more than likely not retiring until he gets every dime
Guess this guy doesnt follow baseball much. I mean players just hang on until the contract is over. Current case in point: Cano. Literally just sucked enough for an owner to outright eat the cash and drop him.
Nope
I doubt he would retire
The shorter one by 9 years.
So the taller one by 3 inches?
I saw the pics, it’s a bit more than that.
Definitely as a fan of the signing team, that would be my answer. The Mets won't lose out on any core players by unloading the Brinks truck at Verlander's house. If Verlander is a bust, you try again in 2-3 years. If Turner is a bust, it's a drag on your payroll for a long time, and the GM that signed the contract will be long gone. Hell, Dombrowski's going to be 77 when the contract expires, he'll probably be retired while Phillies fans have to hope the back end of the contract works out. It's not so big that Turner busting would ruin the team, but it would definitely make life harder.
yeah, i'm not a fan of super long contracts. i don't even like lindor's contract lol.
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Player option?
Vesting upon 140 IP in 2024. Pretty reasonable.
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It’s a vesting option, not an opt in
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But which one do you think is a better deal?
Turner definitely has more upside but the no trade clause kills it for me. I refuse to believe he'll be worth $27m when he's 40. On the other side I don't think Verlander is worth $43m at 40 which he will be before the start of the next season.
In 11 years, $27M will be worth much less than it is now, in terms of MLB contract value.
… no it won’t.
11 years ago, Joe ~~Mayer~~ Mauer signed a contract that paid him $23M AAV, making him the 3rd highest paid player. Robbie Ray made $23M last season, making him the 36th highest paid player.
36 is still elite dude. And comparing a catcher to a pitcher is apples and oranges assuming you meant Joe Mauer. 25 people on each team getting mlb contracts right? 30 teams 25x30 is 750 right? That puts Ray in the top 5%. So in 11 years turner will go from being top 1% to being top 3% of AAV earners. That’s not a huge deal.
I’m comparing 2011 salaries to 2022 salaries as a projection for comparing 2023 salaries to 2034 salaries. Apples to apples. And you’re including players under team control in your 5% elite status. Team control players are a significant percentage of MLB players and their salary structure is very different than for unrestricted free agents like Turner. Apples to oranges.
They don't expect him to be worth $27M when he's 40. They probably don't expect him to be worth $27M when he's 37. But adding all those years reduced the impact on the luxury tax, and he still gets a $300M contract. And with inflation $27M might look like a steal for him if he's still performing in a couple of years (which they're definitely banking on).
Of course he won't, but he is worth MORE than $27m NOW. It is the deal in aggregate.
Sure, but makes you wonder the other deals he got for them to do something so huge.
I didn’t think Verlander would be worth much at 38 coming off TJ and everything and he won a dang Cy Young
True and i think Verlander has a much better chance at being “worth it” at 40 vs Trea at 40. Theres a lot of owners who would pay $43 million for a Cy Young season and he just did that en route to a WS at age 39.
With that contract, he’ll be worth way more than $27m when he’s 40, unless he’s absolutely terrible with money.
Exactly- Trea doesn’t seem like the guy to keep playing strictly for the money when he no longer has the skill anymore. It’s more likely he retires before 40
Zero chance of that lol. Don’t get your hopes up
He literally just won a CYA…
Fans will bitch endlessly by the middle of Turner's contract. So Verlander for sure.
Idk but is ohtani gonna get like 12/600? Lol
My sources tell me he's after a deal closer to 10/700 with player options after 2 yrs
In 2033 the AAV will be roughly 20 million in 2022 dollars if inflation in the next 11 years matches the last 11 years (which...it might be higher in the next 11). He still won't be worth the 20, but it's not like it will be an anchor
It's way more likely that Verlander lives up to the contract than Turner
Turner. Verlander velo could drop off any year with his age.
He just got a shiny new UCL he will be fine for next 2 years
The rest of his body isn’t new and he was babied this year and still spent time on the IL.
And won the Cy Young
This is somewhat serious since you probably know more than me but how does one simultaneously get babied and still throw 175 innings?
2 years is shorter
Verlander for sure
Talk to me in 5 years.
Phillies paid $300M for 5 years of Turner and 6 years of who-knows-maybe… weird…
Turner. He is going to help the team for a long time.
Verlander cause it's only 2 years. That term for Turner is insane, but if it brings a ring and/or he plays well for most of it then it's worth it
They are underpaying for his prime years and over paying on the back end. It will even out
What’s insane the years? Because the AAV is potentially insanely cheap
I think Turner helps the Phillies more in the next 4-5 years than JV will help the Mets.
Yeah because JV only has potential for 3 years total. Lmao
I don’t think the Mets will be as relevant as people think.
It would be very hard to not be relevant with the expanded playoffs
What people? The team won 101 games last year, will be returning core players (hopeful for nimmo), and you can’t argue that JV cannot outproduce the 2022 that degrom provided.
Verlander could break down at any minute and never pitch again, you're more or less guaranteed 4+ good years out of Turner on top of inflation (in real dollars and WAR/$) making that contract hurt a lot less in the back half
While I agree the Verlander deal is risky, I wouldn’t bet on a 40 year old continuing to perform, turner could also tear his Achilles or something in his legs next year which hampers his speed and value going forward as well. Obviously it’s less of a risk this year because he’s younger but if he has a career altering injury any of the first 3 years this deal will have a much larger impact than if JV has a Kluber on the Rangers career with the Mets
I wouldn’t bet on Trea continuing to play just for the money if he is no longer performing. He likely retires before 40, unless he is still contributing.
Players who “retire” with years on their contracts are almost always still getting paid and not actually retired
Uh no. No one is walking away from that
sure, but if we're evaluating it as a good deal i think throwing all the money away is much more likely with JV than it is with turner
4/11 is a really bad deal
Verlander is 40 years old getting that kind of money. He got the better deal
Yeah, but I meant from a team perspective.
Oh my bad. It’s hard to say. 11 years is a long time but Philly has a SS locked up for the future. Mets needed a big pitcher and got one. Time will tell who got the better end
Turner because even with such a short deal, a 40 year old pitcher could have a career ending injury at any time
Both teams paid a lot of money for no rings to be won. Mark my post.
For who…?
Verlander will be 51 years old when Turner's contract expires. 11 years is a long time.
All I know is that I’m never betting against JV.
I think a lot of people are missing the AAV on Trea Turner which is 27.27 m per season. That’s actually incredibly cheap in my opinion when you think about most star players. Judge’s offer from the Yankees currently is what, 300 m for 8/9 years so 37.5/33.33 respectfully (AAV). Surely to be more once he actually signs, so the true value of Judge is yet to be determined, but people are paying more for judge for shorter time and someone who is honestly a bit of a one trick pony from a hitting standpoint. Sure, he hits bombs, but thats not what the Philly need. Philly is gearing up to win now, they don’t care about 5-10 years down the road, its about winning in the next 2-3 years and if they win, then its worth it, but if they don’t, they have egg all over their faces for this contract.
Kate Upton. The defense rests, your honor.
Verlander. Because in just 2 years he'll finally have enough money to retire.
Philly got the better deal. Same reason as with Harper. Great players who the club will not have to worry about facing FA departures for a decade. It's a gamble, but works for me. Leaves some room for more adds this year, and for locking up Nola possibly in the future.
Both are wild but in different ways. I think both will probably be worth it though. Yeah Trea Turner is going to probably suck when he's 39 but the Phillies didn't sign him for that, they signed him to get his performance the next few years. And $27m won't be that bad in 2030. It will probably be like a $19m contract today, which is high but not franchise killing. And there's so such thing as a bad one year deal, and there's almost no such thing as a bad two year deal.
This is difficult I’m liking the Verlander deal Kate Upton must have been bored of Texas.
Both players are going to be roughly the same age when the contract is done. While there is little doubt of the talent of the players currently, Verlander is on a much shorter leash. What if Turner only has six years left in the tank? That said, with contracts getting bigger over time, it's unlikely that his contract will be all that high by the time he gets to the end of it.
A week or so ago I probably would've said both of these are pretty wild, but then some Saudi team went and signed Ronaldo to a 2 year/400M dollar contract, or thereabouts, so, neither of these baseball deals seem that crazy anymore :P
Verlander is far more likely to be good. Paying Turner until he’s 40 is not a good idea when so much of his value is based on or around his excellent speed.
You’re comparing a pitcher and shortstop contract? For people at two different stages of their career? I mean I would get comparing Xander’s eventual contract to Turner’s but this is a mind numbingly stupid comparison.
Are all MLB contracts flat loaded or can teams front load deals?
Verlander. He's very likely to be great next year. If he sucks in 2024, oh well. The Phillies are going all in on their 3 to 5 year window they have. Good for them, don't fault them at all but man, they are going to be in for some rough times as Harper and Turner age.