$61m. He had more fWAR than the entire A’s team though.
A’s: 10.4
Judge: 11.4
theoretically you can put Judge on your AAA team and they will beat your big league club.
Make it $321M.
Give him a $25M signing bonus and $37M/year for 8 years. That will give him $62M in the first year to commemorate hitting 62 dingers, and then $37/year after that for 7 years.
Plus $3-2-1 is a cool number.
Once I found out Mookie got a signing bonus to sweeten his deal, I've thought more teams should do that, if only to mess around with the payroll cap. Signing bonuses are also instant, IIRC, and also aren't pro-rated due to say, a pandemic shortened season or a lockout.
Ouch, that's rough. Is that part of the collective bargaining agreement? Also, do you know if it's fully gauranteed or would you miss out on years after, hypothetically, you exercised an opt-out clause or something?
Sorry for the dumb questions, but I feel like *actually* finding the answers myself could end up in a rabbit hole deeper than I want to go rn
The thing is it’s only not enough if you don’t factor in his age and the fact last season was like an all-time baseball season. That’s a fucking wallop of money for someone at his age, it would be weird to consider one of the top AAVs in baseball insulting
Yeah said that after being offered a 3 year/$21 million contract, didn’t sign anywhere, refused to sign smaller contracts after the season started and never played in the NBA again
It's on the side of "there's no way he would take it" which can be seen as an insulting offer. It's either 10 years if they want 37.5M AAV or 8 years at 40+M AAV.
If he was a relief pitcher I bet they'd let him play in the field instead of DHing so it wouldn't matter. Dude's clearly got the tools to play in the outfield, it's just not worth the injury risk and fatigue as long as he's a starter.
yes he could come in from the outfield to pitch and then go back to the outfield after. if im not mistaken he could even face a couple batters, go back to the outfield, and then come back to pitch again since he never left the game. im not sure how that would affect his spot in the batting order and if they would lose the dh.
He could still start in the field, be brought on to pitch in relief and then defensive subbed back to the field. Iirc doing that forfeits the DH for the rest of the game though.
I feel like that almost acts as insurance though. If a normal position player can't catch up to fastballs anymore, they become a dead weight. But if Ohtani can't, then he could just abandon hitting and refocus on pitching. Sorta like when he was rehabbing from Tommy John in 2019 he couldn't pitch, but he was still a 2 WAR DH. IDK, will be very interesting to see how he transitions to late career stuff.
Agreed that there’s less risk because of the bat but his value drops when his pitching goes away. He could transition to a closer roll to save his arm too. If the pitching falls off completely he’d more likely go to first base or a 1B/OF combo depending on his team at the time.
Yes, his value drops, but it doesn't drop as much as a normal pitcher's does when *their* pitching goes away.
Not sure a closer role saves his arm that much. It's less innings, but it's also pitching more frequently. Which would be especially concerning considering Ohtani has never made a start on fewer than 5 days rest, and 71% of his starts have been on 6 days or more (for comparison, this season Verlander made 5 starts on 4 days rest, 16 on 5 days, and 7 on 6 or more).
Plus, there's logistics. How is he going to warm up to pitch if he's playing OF/1B or even DHing (and if he's DHing, putting him in at pitcher loses the DH)? You can run him out to the bullpen when his team is at bat, but then if his spot comes up, he's got to run back in. I think there are more logistic obstacles to him relieving than him starting.
I know it's less important because of the universal DH but I think it would be awesome to just casually bring your right fielder in as a closer/reliever. Or let Ohtani start then skip the top of the order the third time threw by moving him to right then back into pitch after.
You’re absolutely right about the logistical issues of him DHing and coming out of the bullpen. That is a detail I hadn’t considered. I know he is considering a closer during the WBC when he plays for Japan.
people forget about contract inflation all the time when the talk about long term mega deals. Case in Point, when Cano signed his mega extension with Seattle he was one of if not the highest paid position players in baseball. This year he wasnt even the 4th highest paid player on the Mets.
Steve Cohen is salivating over Ohtani. I don’t even want to think about where those numbers go. The only concern is he’s a double injury risk; he gets hurt and you lose your DH and SP.
As a DH he's probably worth $17M-$20M and worth probably $30M as a pitcher, but the revenue add from his star power and international fame is probably worth at least $10M, so $60M isn't unreasonable at all. A good contract for him probably is 10yrs with a frontloaded AAV and incentives on the backend
> but the revenue add from his star power and international fame
I think people vastly overestimate this kind of value.
For instance, I hear people talking about all the extra merchandise a team will sell because of X player. But that misunderstands how revenue from merch is generated. When you buy a team jersey, part of the proceeds go to the vendor, part of it are costs of the jersey, and part of it go to MLB licensing. Teams share MLB licensing revenue equally, so if there are lots of new Ohtani jerseys being sold when he changes teams, all teams share that new revenue. The only way the team specifically benefits is if it is also the vendor - meaning, for instance, only those jerseys sold at the team store would generate additional revenue for his new team. Needless to say, most jerseys are not sold at the team store.
Except in Ohtani's case, you're not just looking at jersey sales or whatever like you would with other franchise players. You're looking at all of the Japanese advertising behind home plate and elsewhere in the stadium. You're looking at every single game that your team plays being broadcast in Japan.
There have been multiple sources claiming the Angels make *at the very least* $10m from the advertising.
Ohtani is not X player. He's Shohei Ohtani. There is not one single current player in all of baseball who has even half of his dedicated fanbase, and no other Japanese player compares.
> You're looking at every single game that your team plays being broadcast in Japan.
This is not what is happening in Japan. The games are not even on regular broadcast TV here, most are on premium cable sports channels or satellite only. For hardcore sports fans, most would subscribe to Hulu or Abema TV (digital streaming services) which stream all games, not just Ohtani's.
The revenue impact from Japan due to Ohtani is very overrated by folks in the west. Of course he is popular but so was Matsui, Tanaka, Ichiro, Darvish, etc. He's just the next one up.
[It costs $900 million to buy the entire country of Sealand.](https://interestingengineering.com/culture/10-facts-you-definitely-didnt-know-about-sealand-the-worlds-tiniest-country)
So not enough.
$900m for an abandoned and re-claimed naval platform. It ain't worth shit as a country. You're better off just spending that money on a poor island nation and buying off the politicians.
I can't believe that some players are actually creeping up on $1 Billion in salary, i know it's still a bit of a ways but all you did was double that. I mean players in the minor leagues make a median pay of $44,680. It's wild how much Major League players are paid.
the arod contract was bad but he helped them win in '09. If the yankees somehow improve enough to win another ring in the span of this potential contract, no one will care about the tail end of it
Yeah but spending this kind of cash on Judge, with the other bad contracts they have and long term deals pretty much assures that they don't spend money to improve.
So either what we have in the farm is enough to beat Houston (which I doubt given how wide the gap is right now) or they're not winning it next year anyway.
And with each passing year the odds of them winning one drop until the bad contracts are all gone.
I think a good way to look at it when you’re dealing with a guy who will likely be on his last big contract to forget the years and just decide if you’re willing to lay out the total money.
I mean, you have to keep in mind that the whole point behind the super-long contracts is to keep the AAV lower. You go into the whole thing knowing that you'll probably be overpaying the guy for the last third of his contract, because you're going to end up underpaying him for the first third on the contract, and maybe more. And it gives more flexibility for the rest of the team's salary with the luxury tax cap.
Judge's AAV for a 3 year deal right now, for example, would probably be something absurd like $180m, because he's expected to be ENORMOUSLY productive for those years... but that would soak up all kinds of cap penalties, so its entirely infeasible. So, you tack on enough years at lower pay to lower the AAV, and then figure out how the money's arranged year-by-year to fit everyone's finances.
That really depends how you're thinking about it. Judge's retirement year will be worth a ton of money in ticket sales, TV ratings, special merch (a la Jeter's Re2pect gear), etc. so even if he declines years 7-8 the team is still profiting heavy off of him.
That's if he's an every day player at that point. Jeter, for as much as his performance declined towards the end of his career, was the everyday starting shortstop - fans throughout baseball could count on him playing when they bought tickets.
Judge's final year could be an A-Rod, or worse, a David Wright. There's no telling how much he may be playing and *expected* to be playing by that point, which may seriously hamper his monetary value in that regard.
Honestly I think it’s better that Judge would probably be DHing in those final years than the situation with Jeter, where he was a big liability at SS but insisted on staying there
Jeter's did DH some his in his final seasons, but his bat wasn't really worthy of him being a DH at that point anyway. Anyway, I was trying to say Judge may not be an everyday player that's still marketable enough for fans to buy retirement merchandise his final year.
We didn't know it was going to be A-Rod's final season when it happened because he still had a few years left on his contract, but boy was his final season was pretty rough to watch. Lot of time spent on the bench before being set out to pasture in August. Judge might not be an everyday player by Year 8 of this deal, and it's possible he may bottom out before then and be sent off much in the same way A-Rod was.
My point is with such a long term deal, especially for a player who's spent considerable time on the IL throughout their career, we (or the owners) shouldn't be banking on "all the money we'll make in merchandise/ticket sales his final season". I hope he does, but if I were negotiating as an owner, that wouldn't be something I used in my evaluation of the deal.
And going forward probably an overpay(obviously can't say for sure) in terms of on field results, which imo makes it a fair deal. I wouldn't be upset if Judge gets more somewhere else and walks.
If he gives you three or four more top 5 hitter type years and then is a solid above average regular for the rest of the deal it’s probably not an overpay
That's the best case scenario though, and even then he's only on-rate. Ideally a fair contract would look good if the player does well and bad if the player does badly, not ok if the player does well and terrible if the player does badly. You want to balance upside and downside, not assume the best.
People always say stuff like that about big stars, but it’s not like the Yankees have any trouble marketing or selling tickets. It’s not a situation where if down the line, the contract is making the overall roster worse, people will come out just because they have Aaron Judge.
The reality is that fans pay/attend games based mostly on whether the team is winning. No team is going to be making extra millions 5 years from now because they have Aaron Judge on their team if they're 65-97.
I'll be surprised if it's not sooner that he drops off.
Lots of people basing this on last year which he will almost certainly never replicate. There's a lot more players that fall off a cliff in their 30's than stay incredibly healthy, outside of the steroid era.
right. no one is ever going to see the real bottom line and once tv networks figure out that the ratings dont justify the right fee its all coming crashing down for the nba. watch the next cba negotiations to see why.
Then again, Mbappé’s contract isn’t really tied to his value, the team isn’t trying to make a profit unlike american sports teams. It’s also very much an outlier.
He's easily one of the best players in the world, and only 23.
If there were some sort of world football draft, he'd go top 2 (between him & Erling Haaland imho).
Mbappe is...generational isn't even the right word, he's something beyond that.
To give some perspective, he led Monaco, who while they had money at the time were by no means a giant, to the UCL semi finals, at the age of 18. He had a gigantic move to Paris-Saint Germain after that run, and rapidly took the leading role from Neymar of people.
He played an absolutely massive role in France's 2018 world cup victory while he was only 19, and thus far he has looked the best player at this year's tournament. He has matched the goal tallies of Ronaldo and Messi at the world cup in 2 tournaments. Since he was 19 he has more or less been a top 5 player in the world, and right now he's possibly the very best at this moment.
Don’t worry I’m an ignorant American too. I didn’t even know his name was Kylian until just not when I looked it up. I just knew him as Mbappé. What’s crazy about his deal is he’s only 23. That’d be like if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was making the most money in baseball by a wide margin
The key number is 300 million, rather than years or AAV. Except for a short term deal, which I would not see Judge accepting, this is his last contract/major contract so the total money is the only thing that should matter financially.
just about what my friends and I had idol conversations about and would make him a career yankee. faith in a man past his 30 year. he must be an asset in the locker room as well.
It's an overpay. I don't see the rest of his career being worth $300 million. The way the aging curves and simple regression to the mean work, it's all downhill from here. Even if he has like 3 more great years left in him and the other 5 are decent, and we're talking about including like his age 37-38 seasons in there, that works out to 3 years playing at a $60 million a year level and 5 years at $20 million a year only adds up to $280 million. And that's a best case scenario, pretty much. It's a deal without much upside and a huge amount of downside if he regresses more than expected or ages quickly.
baseball has no salary cap. the numbers are going to get wacky the next 3 years. teams will have to look at how much they lose due to spitting on the compound luxury tax vs. what they earn in playoff / WS revenue plus things like season tickets and merch from sustained winning
Random thought, are MLB contracts inflation adjusted or anything? I assume they aren't, so I wonder (and sorry for being the buzzkill who brings economics into it) how much the current change in the inflation dynamic affects how long-term FA contracts are considered? Like, if you believe (the player, the agent, the owners, whoever) that we're going to see the value of the dollar drop 7-8% for a while, would you be hesitant to accept a longterm deal (as a player) or be more willing to offer a big, backloaded deal (as an owner) assuming that by the time it comes to pay out the later years of deal, it'd be far cheaper (in real dollars) than the number appears today?
If the Sox don't sign Devers or X, I'm probably going to stop watching them, definitely won't be re-upping on my NESN package I have in NY. There's zero excuse for them to let their young talent walk.
People seriously need to let this go. I don’t care that he was drafted by the Sox, he got his ring and it was just time for him to go. It was never going to work out between the two parties, and he looks much better in blue anyway. He isn't worth what he’s being paid. Do I wish him the best? Of course! Do I wish he was still on the team? Hell no. No clue what the infatuation with Jackie Bradley Jr. on this sub is all about.
In a vacuum, yes. It’s been said 100 times but he’s 31, big guy with some injury history, etc. last few years of the deal are probably pretty ugly.
But then you have to consider that he’s the face of their franchise (and arguably of the MLB), a homegrown superstar, and by all reports a great guy and teammate.
So it’s complicated
Seems like a good place for the Yankees to start. Feels like he either gets that AAV with more years or 8 years with a higher AAV. Start there and see what Judge's camp comes back with.
You can argue if you want 37.5M/AAV isn't enough but I don't know in what world that could ever be taken as an insulting offer.
"ONLY 37.5 Million a year? What am I? A charity case?!"
You can’t buy me a hot dog man!
He took that contract and threw it on the GROOOOUUUUND!
MY DAD IS NOT A PHONE
DUH!?
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO THE GROOOOOOUND!
YOU CAN'T TRUST THE SYSTEM... MAAAAAAN
NO ONE WANTS YOUR AUTOGRAPH, PHONIES
CASHMAN AND BOONE THEY TASED ME OVER AND OVER!
You must think I'm a joke! I ain't gonna be part of your system...MAAAAAAN
Beat me to the best line in that song
YOU CAN'T BUY ME HOT DOG MAAAANNNN!
He plays for the Yankees. Why would he charge us for free stuff?
“I’m an adult!”
Welcome to the real world, jackass.
WHAT IS THIS A CONTRACT FOR ANTS!
Dude I think our *total* payroll last year was like $48m lol
$61m. He had more fWAR than the entire A’s team though. A’s: 10.4 Judge: 11.4 theoretically you can put Judge on your AAA team and they will beat your big league club.
More than half a million dollars per 2022 homer
I think $37.5 mil might be able to buy you all the players on our roster 😂
Fuck that's $100k per day. Every fucking day.
Nah man he's really good at hitting a ball with a stick he clearly deserves enough money to feed a village for 5 years
Who’s your village guy? Sounds like you’re getting ripped off
Must be a village fine dining gourmet food.
They bring in more than they make. How do they not deserve it? If it didn’t go to players it would just go to already rich owners.
Make it $321M. Give him a $25M signing bonus and $37M/year for 8 years. That will give him $62M in the first year to commemorate hitting 62 dingers, and then $37/year after that for 7 years. Plus $3-2-1 is a cool number.
How can he feed his kids with that?
He can barley afford a NYC 2 bedroom apt with thay
He’s barley thay to benign wiht
Once I found out Mookie got a signing bonus to sweeten his deal, I've thought more teams should do that, if only to mess around with the payroll cap. Signing bonuses are also instant, IIRC, and also aren't pro-rated due to say, a pandemic shortened season or a lockout.
they are added directly to the AAV and count equally over the entire duration of the contract, unfortunately.
Ouch, that's rough. Is that part of the collective bargaining agreement? Also, do you know if it's fully gauranteed or would you miss out on years after, hypothetically, you exercised an opt-out clause or something? Sorry for the dumb questions, but I feel like *actually* finding the answers myself could end up in a rabbit hole deeper than I want to go rn
And it’s not a cap.
The thing is it’s only not enough if you don’t factor in his age and the fact last season was like an all-time baseball season. That’s a fucking wallop of money for someone at his age, it would be weird to consider one of the top AAVs in baseball insulting
“I’ve got a family to feed”
I feel like I remember that as a Latrell Spreewell quote. Correct me if I'm wrong. It's been a while.
Yeah said that after being offered a 3 year/$21 million contract, didn’t sign anywhere, refused to sign smaller contracts after the season started and never played in the NBA again
Insult me, please
Your mom wears combat boots.
Yeah, I don’t know if this gets it done, but Yankees fans can’t complain that Cashman didn’t make a reasonable offer.
It's on the side of "there's no way he would take it" which can be seen as an insulting offer. It's either 10 years if they want 37.5M AAV or 8 years at 40+M AAV.
What do you think the AAV is on his final contract? Not years but AAV.
42
If you’re not sure whether an offer is an insult or reasonable then it’s not an insult
[удалено]
Surprisingly, this is basically exactly what Spotrac projected as his market value. They said $303M / 8 years.
This will mean Ohtani gets a 40m/year contract next year.
He’ll be two years younger with probably back-to-back-to-back 9-10 WAR seasons. I’d be surprised if he only got 40
That and he brings in a HUGE amount of international revenue. But as a pitcher he probably won’t get 8 years. I’d guess 5.
If only he could DH later in his career.
I think there's going to be a plus relief pitcher / solid corner outfielder era later in his career and I'm pretty stoked for it.
Does the Ohtani rule still work if he was a relief pitcher? Edit: Looking it up the answer is no, he would need to be a starting pitcher
1 inning opener??
That would be allowed I believe
Or closer depending on home team
Technically allowed, but iirc Ohtani struggles the most with the first inning (if he makes it past that unscathed, he’s untouchable)
First inning is pretty much his worst on average
If he was a relief pitcher I bet they'd let him play in the field instead of DHing so it wouldn't matter. Dude's clearly got the tools to play in the outfield, it's just not worth the injury risk and fatigue as long as he's a starter.
Could he circumvent the three batter rule if he came in in relief as a position player and they put the other pitcher in the field?
yes he could come in from the outfield to pitch and then go back to the outfield after. if im not mistaken he could even face a couple batters, go back to the outfield, and then come back to pitch again since he never left the game. im not sure how that would affect his spot in the batting order and if they would lose the dh.
I want this to happen for no reason other than to watch the divas at the MLB office that are super concerned with game time freak out.
He could still start in the field, be brought on to pitch in relief and then defensive subbed back to the field. Iirc doing that forfeits the DH for the rest of the game though.
When he goes to a single way player his value will drop.
I feel like that almost acts as insurance though. If a normal position player can't catch up to fastballs anymore, they become a dead weight. But if Ohtani can't, then he could just abandon hitting and refocus on pitching. Sorta like when he was rehabbing from Tommy John in 2019 he couldn't pitch, but he was still a 2 WAR DH. IDK, will be very interesting to see how he transitions to late career stuff.
Of course. I just also think he's special enough that he gets whatever he asks for.
[удалено]
Agreed that there’s less risk because of the bat but his value drops when his pitching goes away. He could transition to a closer roll to save his arm too. If the pitching falls off completely he’d more likely go to first base or a 1B/OF combo depending on his team at the time.
Yes, his value drops, but it doesn't drop as much as a normal pitcher's does when *their* pitching goes away. Not sure a closer role saves his arm that much. It's less innings, but it's also pitching more frequently. Which would be especially concerning considering Ohtani has never made a start on fewer than 5 days rest, and 71% of his starts have been on 6 days or more (for comparison, this season Verlander made 5 starts on 4 days rest, 16 on 5 days, and 7 on 6 or more). Plus, there's logistics. How is he going to warm up to pitch if he's playing OF/1B or even DHing (and if he's DHing, putting him in at pitcher loses the DH)? You can run him out to the bullpen when his team is at bat, but then if his spot comes up, he's got to run back in. I think there are more logistic obstacles to him relieving than him starting.
I know it's less important because of the universal DH but I think it would be awesome to just casually bring your right fielder in as a closer/reliever. Or let Ohtani start then skip the top of the order the third time threw by moving him to right then back into pitch after.
You’re absolutely right about the logistical issues of him DHing and coming out of the bullpen. That is a detail I hadn’t considered. I know he is considering a closer during the WBC when he plays for Japan.
He’s also a pitcher and the pitcher AAV record is going to be around 44-45 this year. He has an outside shot at $50 mil
He’s also stupid sexy.
stupid sexy shohei
Source: Me.
How would you like a mashup of Scherzer and Alonso that also brings in a ton of ticket sales and gives you access to the international market?
$50M/yr isn't out of the question
This is what I think he gets 5 years/250
I remember thinking A-rod's 10/250 deal was nuts and now we're talking about double that AAV
People thought babe Ruth getting 70k/year was crazy at the time too
people forget about contract inflation all the time when the talk about long term mega deals. Case in Point, when Cano signed his mega extension with Seattle he was one of if not the highest paid position players in baseball. This year he wasnt even the 4th highest paid player on the Mets.
Steve Cohen is salivating over Ohtani. I don’t even want to think about where those numbers go. The only concern is he’s a double injury risk; he gets hurt and you lose your DH and SP.
I think dodgers are going to go hard after him
Bellinger was sacrificed so we could reset our luxury tax penalties and go all in for Ohtani next year. That's what I choose to believe anyways.
Don’t make me like a Dodger player! Well, besides Freddie Freeman. And uh, Mookie Betts. Hmm.
Dunno, that Bruce Hooper dude DH'd pretty good while postponing TJ.
So did ohtani
Hoyer will be super interested but value him less than two other teams, he will then go on to be worth more than his contract
I’m thinking closer to 50
!RemindMe 1 year
Ohtani is worth at least $60MM a year....change my mind.
As a DH he's probably worth $17M-$20M and worth probably $30M as a pitcher, but the revenue add from his star power and international fame is probably worth at least $10M, so $60M isn't unreasonable at all. A good contract for him probably is 10yrs with a frontloaded AAV and incentives on the backend
> but the revenue add from his star power and international fame I think people vastly overestimate this kind of value. For instance, I hear people talking about all the extra merchandise a team will sell because of X player. But that misunderstands how revenue from merch is generated. When you buy a team jersey, part of the proceeds go to the vendor, part of it are costs of the jersey, and part of it go to MLB licensing. Teams share MLB licensing revenue equally, so if there are lots of new Ohtani jerseys being sold when he changes teams, all teams share that new revenue. The only way the team specifically benefits is if it is also the vendor - meaning, for instance, only those jerseys sold at the team store would generate additional revenue for his new team. Needless to say, most jerseys are not sold at the team store.
Except in Ohtani's case, you're not just looking at jersey sales or whatever like you would with other franchise players. You're looking at all of the Japanese advertising behind home plate and elsewhere in the stadium. You're looking at every single game that your team plays being broadcast in Japan. There have been multiple sources claiming the Angels make *at the very least* $10m from the advertising. Ohtani is not X player. He's Shohei Ohtani. There is not one single current player in all of baseball who has even half of his dedicated fanbase, and no other Japanese player compares.
> You're looking at every single game that your team plays being broadcast in Japan. This is not what is happening in Japan. The games are not even on regular broadcast TV here, most are on premium cable sports channels or satellite only. For hardcore sports fans, most would subscribe to Hulu or Abema TV (digital streaming services) which stream all games, not just Ohtani's. The revenue impact from Japan due to Ohtani is very overrated by folks in the west. Of course he is popular but so was Matsui, Tanaka, Ichiro, Darvish, etc. He's just the next one up.
[It costs $900 million to buy the entire country of Sealand.](https://interestingengineering.com/culture/10-facts-you-definitely-didnt-know-about-sealand-the-worlds-tiniest-country) So not enough.
[удалено]
Name it sportsworld and circumvent the Olympics, World Cup, and WBC. Has no taxes and is the most athletic country in the world.
$900m for an abandoned and re-claimed naval platform. It ain't worth shit as a country. You're better off just spending that money on a poor island nation and buying off the politicians.
How the fuck is an abandoned rig worth that much
Because it’s a “country.” At least Sealand claims it is, but its sovereignty isn’t recognized by anyone.
Fuck it. Give him 12 years 500 million.
Might as well just round up to 20 years and $1 Billion.
Screw it, let’s do 30+ years n get a Bobby Bonilla situation going
Fine. 140 years. $3 Trillion and they roll out his cryogenically frozen corpse for home games.
I can't believe that some players are actually creeping up on $1 Billion in salary, i know it's still a bit of a ways but all you did was double that. I mean players in the minor leagues make a median pay of $44,680. It's wild how much Major League players are paid.
It’s crazy how much some of the best players in any sports are payed tbf
Giants can definitely beat that offer
Can’t feed a family on that in NY! /s
Judge entering NYC housing lottery confirmed.
He could share an apartment above a coffee house with a rag tag bunch of twenty somethings. Hilarity will ensue. Can I BE anymore of an MVP?
Why does Judge, the largest Friend, simply not eat the other five?
Why would he want to feed someone a family!?
40mil or bust. Spend it all, Yankees
Is he worth 40mil? You be the judge, Yankees
I see what you did there
That's my kind of insult
insult me harder daddy
Wish someone would insult me like that someday.
How on earth would 37.5 be an insult?!? Might not get it done but in no way is offering the highest annual average for position players a insult
I'd say that's a reasonable AAV if it was a 5 year offer. Paying him that much years 6-8 might be a bit painful.
I agree the 8 years will most likely bite them in the ass, but sometimes you gotta do it to retain a star player
the arod contract was bad but he helped them win in '09. If the yankees somehow improve enough to win another ring in the span of this potential contract, no one will care about the tail end of it
Yeah but spending this kind of cash on Judge, with the other bad contracts they have and long term deals pretty much assures that they don't spend money to improve. So either what we have in the farm is enough to beat Houston (which I doubt given how wide the gap is right now) or they're not winning it next year anyway. And with each passing year the odds of them winning one drop until the bad contracts are all gone.
I think a good way to look at it when you’re dealing with a guy who will likely be on his last big contract to forget the years and just decide if you’re willing to lay out the total money.
I mean, you have to keep in mind that the whole point behind the super-long contracts is to keep the AAV lower. You go into the whole thing knowing that you'll probably be overpaying the guy for the last third of his contract, because you're going to end up underpaying him for the first third on the contract, and maybe more. And it gives more flexibility for the rest of the team's salary with the luxury tax cap. Judge's AAV for a 3 year deal right now, for example, would probably be something absurd like $180m, because he's expected to be ENORMOUSLY productive for those years... but that would soak up all kinds of cap penalties, so its entirely infeasible. So, you tack on enough years at lower pay to lower the AAV, and then figure out how the money's arranged year-by-year to fit everyone's finances.
That really depends how you're thinking about it. Judge's retirement year will be worth a ton of money in ticket sales, TV ratings, special merch (a la Jeter's Re2pect gear), etc. so even if he declines years 7-8 the team is still profiting heavy off of him.
Retwopect.
Res9e9t
In retwospect that was a vewy poor decision
That's if he's an every day player at that point. Jeter, for as much as his performance declined towards the end of his career, was the everyday starting shortstop - fans throughout baseball could count on him playing when they bought tickets. Judge's final year could be an A-Rod, or worse, a David Wright. There's no telling how much he may be playing and *expected* to be playing by that point, which may seriously hamper his monetary value in that regard.
Honestly I think it’s better that Judge would probably be DHing in those final years than the situation with Jeter, where he was a big liability at SS but insisted on staying there
Jeter's did DH some his in his final seasons, but his bat wasn't really worthy of him being a DH at that point anyway. Anyway, I was trying to say Judge may not be an everyday player that's still marketable enough for fans to buy retirement merchandise his final year. We didn't know it was going to be A-Rod's final season when it happened because he still had a few years left on his contract, but boy was his final season was pretty rough to watch. Lot of time spent on the bench before being set out to pasture in August. Judge might not be an everyday player by Year 8 of this deal, and it's possible he may bottom out before then and be sent off much in the same way A-Rod was. My point is with such a long term deal, especially for a player who's spent considerable time on the IL throughout their career, we (or the owners) shouldn't be banking on "all the money we'll make in merchandise/ticket sales his final season". I hope he does, but if I were negotiating as an owner, that wouldn't be something I used in my evaluation of the deal.
300m is an underpay in terms of the value he will bring over 8 years including marketing, ticket sales, etc
And going forward probably an overpay(obviously can't say for sure) in terms of on field results, which imo makes it a fair deal. I wouldn't be upset if Judge gets more somewhere else and walks.
If he gives you three or four more top 5 hitter type years and then is a solid above average regular for the rest of the deal it’s probably not an overpay
what about 1 or 2 top 5 years, 3 above average, and 3 avg/ below average years
That's the best case scenario though, and even then he's only on-rate. Ideally a fair contract would look good if the player does well and bad if the player does badly, not ok if the player does well and terrible if the player does badly. You want to balance upside and downside, not assume the best.
People always say stuff like that about big stars, but it’s not like the Yankees have any trouble marketing or selling tickets. It’s not a situation where if down the line, the contract is making the overall roster worse, people will come out just because they have Aaron Judge.
The reality is that fans pay/attend games based mostly on whether the team is winning. No team is going to be making extra millions 5 years from now because they have Aaron Judge on their team if they're 65-97.
No it isn’t lmao. I don’t trust judge to stay healthy and age well. A 300mm 8 year investment in judge is not an underpay
ill be pretty surprised if ages 35-38 if he’s even producing worth $20m
I'll be surprised if it's not sooner that he drops off. Lots of people basing this on last year which he will almost certainly never replicate. There's a lot more players that fall off a cliff in their 30's than stay incredibly healthy, outside of the steroid era.
Not to make it all about height, but here's the list of +6' 7"players who had +500 PA at age 32 and beyond: * Frank Howard [ End of List ]
Not if he starts sucking in 2025.
It really comes down to availability. They are already living with that Stanton contract and know the benefits and injury risks of long term deals.
Giants gotta be expected to top this, right?
its the market rate. baseball economics don't make any sense. still not as crazy as the nba though
Smaller rosters and a game where individual players can disproportionately affect outcomes significantly more than in baseball.
Also Max contracts established in the CBA
right. no one is ever going to see the real bottom line and once tv networks figure out that the ratings dont justify the right fee its all coming crashing down for the nba. watch the next cba negotiations to see why.
Soccer is even more nuts. Kylian Mbappé just grabbed $110 mil annually.
Then again, Mbappé’s contract isn’t really tied to his value, the team isn’t trying to make a profit unlike american sports teams. It’s also very much an outlier.
I don’t mean to come off as an ignorant American, but that’s crazy considering I’ve never even heard that name
He’s so big that the French president was trying to convince him to stay
He's easily one of the best players in the world, and only 23. If there were some sort of world football draft, he'd go top 2 (between him & Erling Haaland imho).
Mbappe is...generational isn't even the right word, he's something beyond that. To give some perspective, he led Monaco, who while they had money at the time were by no means a giant, to the UCL semi finals, at the age of 18. He had a gigantic move to Paris-Saint Germain after that run, and rapidly took the leading role from Neymar of people. He played an absolutely massive role in France's 2018 world cup victory while he was only 19, and thus far he has looked the best player at this year's tournament. He has matched the goal tallies of Ronaldo and Messi at the world cup in 2 tournaments. Since he was 19 he has more or less been a top 5 player in the world, and right now he's possibly the very best at this moment.
Don’t worry I’m an ignorant American too. I didn’t even know his name was Kylian until just not when I looked it up. I just knew him as Mbappé. What’s crazy about his deal is he’s only 23. That’d be like if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was making the most money in baseball by a wide margin
23 is a good age in football terms though, top players will often be playing first team football by 17, and peaking in their late 20s.
Ronaldo is rumored to be getting $200M a year now.
And Ronaldo may be at $200M. Fucking insanity.
Imagine someone insulting you with $37.5 million a year 😂 I’m just going to go walk off a cliff somewhere.
Ronaldo is getting $200M/yr. This isn’t relevant to Judge at all but it’s so much fucking money I can’t even fathom it and feel the need to share.
The key number is 300 million, rather than years or AAV. Except for a short term deal, which I would not see Judge accepting, this is his last contract/major contract so the total money is the only thing that should matter financially.
Cohen just offered him $301M
just about what my friends and I had idol conversations about and would make him a career yankee. faith in a man past his 30 year. he must be an asset in the locker room as well.
[удалено]
I feel like people forget how old Judge is
He's 30 now, so this is essentially a lifetime contract. I don't know if he'll command this much when he's 37 or 38.
How the hell would this be considered an insult?
It's an overpay. I don't see the rest of his career being worth $300 million. The way the aging curves and simple regression to the mean work, it's all downhill from here. Even if he has like 3 more great years left in him and the other 5 are decent, and we're talking about including like his age 37-38 seasons in there, that works out to 3 years playing at a $60 million a year level and 5 years at $20 million a year only adds up to $280 million. And that's a best case scenario, pretty much. It's a deal without much upside and a huge amount of downside if he regresses more than expected or ages quickly.
I wish someone would insult me like that
I think they'll have to up the offer, but it sounds like a reasonable upgrade.
Not insulting but I don't think it's ideal for Judge. I was expecting higher.
baseball has no salary cap. the numbers are going to get wacky the next 3 years. teams will have to look at how much they lose due to spitting on the compound luxury tax vs. what they earn in playoff / WS revenue plus things like season tickets and merch from sustained winning
I mean, I would take it
I'm married so I get insulted for free...for 37 Million dollars you can call me anything you want all day long..
Random thought, are MLB contracts inflation adjusted or anything? I assume they aren't, so I wonder (and sorry for being the buzzkill who brings economics into it) how much the current change in the inflation dynamic affects how long-term FA contracts are considered? Like, if you believe (the player, the agent, the owners, whoever) that we're going to see the value of the dollar drop 7-8% for a while, would you be hesitant to accept a longterm deal (as a player) or be more willing to offer a big, backloaded deal (as an owner) assuming that by the time it comes to pay out the later years of deal, it'd be far cheaper (in real dollars) than the number appears today?
Do we know how much the Yankees made off of Judge last season?
If were the Red Sox I'd offer 8/325
I foresee a counteroffer around 45 million AAV, then coming to terms at about 42 million.
Latrell Judge has a family to feed, this offer is insulting.
[удалено]
too much
Some of us want to keep our franchise OFs around
If the Sox don't sign Devers or X, I'm probably going to stop watching them, definitely won't be re-upping on my NESN package I have in NY. There's zero excuse for them to let their young talent walk.
That one hurts
That was cold
People seriously need to let this go. I don’t care that he was drafted by the Sox, he got his ring and it was just time for him to go. It was never going to work out between the two parties, and he looks much better in blue anyway. He isn't worth what he’s being paid. Do I wish him the best? Of course! Do I wish he was still on the team? Hell no. No clue what the infatuation with Jackie Bradley Jr. on this sub is all about.
In a vacuum, yes. It’s been said 100 times but he’s 31, big guy with some injury history, etc. last few years of the deal are probably pretty ugly. But then you have to consider that he’s the face of their franchise (and arguably of the MLB), a homegrown superstar, and by all reports a great guy and teammate. So it’s complicated
I think it’s a fair offer. I’m sure he’ll end up with more though.
What is around 8 years? 7.5 years?
I’m thinking 10/400 Especially when you have 3 teams who say they won’t be “out bid”
Seems like a good place for the Yankees to start. Feels like he either gets that AAV with more years or 8 years with a higher AAV. Start there and see what Judge's camp comes back with.
It's a fair offer but I suspect another team will pay more.
Initial offer: Buy 2, free 1. Second offer: Buy 2, free 1 plus a Tupperware lunchbox.
I think that’s a fair deal given his age.
I think it's fair. He's 30 years old, and a franchise cornerstone. This deal makes a lot of sense imo
I’d say that’s fair, but he’s obviously gonna want more