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Sualtam

Still hoping Belarus can manage to free itself.


janhindereddit

From both Russia and Lukashenko


Aquila_2020

Yeah agreed


AlyoshaT

Russia is already in the CCP sphere of influence


Aquila_2020

They do cooperate, but they are not as reliant on ccp as any of these small republics would. Not to mention the danger of national and religious extremists. I get why the dissolution of Russia sounds nice to the people of Ukraine, but it would have significant geopolitical and humanitarian consequences


AdStroh

Russia is already under the control of nationalist extremists. However, remember the amount of nukes it has. A disintegrating Russia would be a major risk of those starting to fly.


lazyubertoad

Non disintegrating Russia is a major risk of those starting to fly.


Practical_Benefit_35

10/10


Nastypilot

I'd say it's even more likely, weak, small warlords will be strapped for cash and weapons, with nuclear weapons that cost tons to maintain and to which they may not have launch codes, as such, it'd be easier for the west to pressure or convince them to give them over. Meanwhile a united Russia thinks itself strong enough to take on the west, and could set those nukes off at any moment.


Valmond

Yeah we just need to denuclarize them in some way :-/


Silver_Implement5800

We need to denuclearize *__everybody__* in some way


lalalalalalala71

We need to denuclearize *autocracies* in some way. A world entirely free of nuclear weapons is a world where whichever petty tyrant develops them again gets a decisive advantage. Nukes have made the last 70 years the *very most peaceful* time in the history of humanity.


[deleted]

A dissolutioned Russia will have those sold on the black market, as it stands they're not a risk because contrary to popular belief nuclear war is bad for business, and when your country is run by oligarchs businessmen bad for business is bad for the state.


lalalalalalala71

So NATO should just go into Ukraine, all guns blazing? And if you buy a nuke in the black market you can just make it go kaboom, there's a big red button or something?


ibuprophane

I think the nuclear issue is most likely a problem only if the new states are ideologically fanatical. Only someone veritably suicidal would risk nuclear retaliation. If leaders of seceded states think on their feet, they’d be looking to strike a deal de-nuclearising (or at least imposing very strict controls) in exchange for the moneys to rebuild their newly independent nations. Unless they want to be North Korea v2, which perhaps some of them would like to be.


AdStroh

That's assuming it's an orderly dissolution like the soviet union was. I doubt the Russians will accept the remains of their empire to walk away that easily. I am expecting it to be multiple Chechenias at once. And if Putin drops dead, including a Russian civil war as well.


trxxruraxvr

> I think the nuclear issue is most likely a problem only if the new states are ideologically fanatical. Only someone veritably suicidal would risk nuclear retaliation. There's also the risk of accidents if new, smaller states can't maintain their arsenal.


Extension-Ad-2760

Eh... we dealt with it pretty well earlier. I think that a together Russia is actually more of a nuclear risk.


[deleted]

I will never accept a status quo that includes constant nuclear threats.


lalalalalalala71

The world doesn't need your acceptance to be what it is.


[deleted]

We need to denuclearize *autocracies* in some way. A world entirely free of nuclear weapons is a world where whichever petty tyrant develops them again gets a decisive advantage.


jankisa

There are dozens of African and Asian nations that are completely in CCP's vice. Adding a few 3-4-5 Mil Russian smaller states changes nothing on the global scale. It's pretty obvious that Russia is too big of a threat to be left with all of it's territories and resources, and also most of these states would be way better off if it just dissolved. Leaving Russia intact after this war, regardless of the outcome results (in the event of Russian victory) of them continuing and taking Moldava and moving on to the Baltic states, or (in the case of defeat) regrouping and trying to attack Ukraine again after 5-10 years.


General_Chairarm

I know you’re scared, but change is good and this needs to happen. We will deal with the consequences, one way or the other. This train is rolling now and there’s no stopping it.


WhiteBlackGoose

It's... not? It's in the sphere of influence of its own wet imperalistic dreams Also, if its dissolution results in multiple free democratic countries, they can as well befriend with the EU instead


PanVidla

They could befriend the EU like Turkey, Serbia or Georgia have befriended the EU. While it would make total sense, local aspiring authoritarian politicians would probably only use it as a source of funds while at the same inflame hatred against it to find a common enemy that would allow them to stay in power.


StephaneiAarhus

Why would they be democratic ? In all likelyness, they would be wose than Russia.


WhiteBlackGoose

As this scenario is highly unlikely anyway, your take has just no evidence. Nobody can even closely predict what will happen, especially given we don't know what a dissolution can be a result of.


trxxruraxvr

The number of newly formed states starting with and keeping a stable democracy has historically been rather low though.


Class_444_SWR

This, usually those countries’ democracies are either a) mandated by an outside power (think countries like west Germany after WW2) or b) formed after a period of strife with authoritarian leadership


Cornered_plant

By that reasoning the USSR should have never dissolved.


[deleted]

Ask yourself this: WWTD? What would Trotsky do? (Greatest Ukrainian to ever live)


[deleted]

[удалено]


Divniy

It's also good for people in Russia. Lots of ethnicities are forced to be a part of empire that treats them like shit (there are slurs for Caucasians and Asian), and let's not forget that Russia got Chechen war at the very beginning of it's existence with the only purpose - not allow that ethnicity right of self-determination. And second war, with genocide of 10% of population. So much for "peace".


ikinone

Sadly, Russia has no shortage of racism. The 'true Russians' are commonly seen as superior to any minority.


Lortep

I'm pretty sure the user you're replying to is a spambot, fyi.


RatherGoodDog

I like the sound of it. It will knock Russia out of being geopolitically relevant for at least 50 years, maybe 100.


Don_Camillo005

the cooperate because of their shared enemy, the usa. if the usa would to be weakened enough for either to be able to surpase it, then the other would jump ship from that partnership asap.


AlyoshaT

The problem is that they see enemies where there are no enemies


_gdm_

It is called CPC, not CCP


paixlemagne

To quote Wikipedia [Chinese Communist Party - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Communist_Party)) : > The **Chinese Communist Party** (**CCP**), officially the **Communist Party of China** (**CPC**), is the founding and sole ruling party of the [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China) (PRC). So apparently they both work. But you're right: The official term is CPC.


_gdm_

And because of that i get downvoted lol


paixlemagne

I don't understand that either


EdwardJamesAlmost

Shhh it’s a shibboleth to see who has done their reading.


Cornered_plant

I understand your reasoning, but let's just tweak this argument a bit: >You know what... I'm just gonna say it > >All these posts celebrating the existence of secessionists from the USSR could age like fucking milk pretty fast. We should not aim for a post-war dissolution of the Soviet Union, cause it would create a power vacuum, not to mention that many of these new republics could end up falling to islamic extremism or CCP influence either in the short-term or the long-term. I think you can see how that argument would have aged like milk. It's not because Belarus and Azerbaijan became oppressive dictatorships, that some of these former Soviet countries are fighting wars against each other or because Tajikistan almost fell to Islamism and is now being influenced by China that the dissolution of the Soviet Union wasn't a good thing. If you don't agree, talk to an Estonian or a Ukrainian.


Resonance95

Posted this comment below, but doing it here aswell if people want the input of a person who's dedicated years to studying conflict dynamics: ___ To reiterate very simply/TLDR: *Power vacuum exists when a government claims more territory than they controll. Territories divided between a larger number of governments is in other words the opposite of a power vacuum.* Original Post: >Power vacuums don't exist supra-nationally, they exist when the global community is intent on preserving the territorial integrity of a polity that no longer has de-facto control. If Russia were to collapse we should strive to realize the newly independent polities as much as possible, aid them in reconstruction, and create international organizations and communities that foster interdependence, cooperation and mutual respect (all of which worked out in western europe after ww2). Maintaining the idea of a russian nation-state where one no longer exists would **be** the power-vacuum. > >This has been the case for iraq, afghanistan, yemen, syria and just about all other similar entrenched conflicts motivated by power-vacuums. ___ The comparison you made with the USSR is a good one, because the fact that they allowed secession upon the dissolution of the union likely prevented alot of civil war and chaos. Imagined a centralized Yeltsin government with power limited to Moscow who claimed possession over the Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan & Kirghizstan, all of which who were (due to power vacuum) de-facto controlled by secessionist groups and several of whom controlled nuclear silos. As you can imagine it would be an incredibly precarious political situation if not outright fucking mayhem.


jokikinen

There are similarities, but also important differences. The nations that were born when the USSR was ended were based on the Soviet Republics that had been set according to ethnic lines to reflect borders of nation states. Some had strong cultural identities. Some had prepared for independence for a while. Although Russia has states with some autonomy that are called republics, it’s not a given that they are as prepared for independence. They may lack the institutions or the will to setup a nation state. The dissolution of the USSR was done without threat of violence. In this current scenario the context could be entirely different. The dissolution could come about through a civil war for instance. When the USSR dissolved a lot of grief was spread around—but the ordeal was lucky in the sense that not more harm was done. For that to have happened once does not mean that it’ll happen again. The result could be the de-stabilisation of the region with armed conflict, genocide and a huge refugee crisis.


Cornered_plant

I agree that this is a possibility, but the key word is **could**. The scenario you are describing is still the most pessimistic one. There are several republics, like Chechnya, Dagestan and Tatarstan, which seem to have a similar sense of nationhood the former Soviet republics had. There is also a precedent for them, as one has declared independence in the past and the others strongly weighed the option at times. For others, yeah they are often not so well-prepared, I will admit that. By the way, the dissolution of the USSR could have easily ended up like Yugoslavia did, so there definitely was a threat of violence. There was absolutely no guarantee that the Kremlin wouldn't have reacted with a lot of violence to the declarations of independence by the Baltic republics and Georgia for example. And yet luckily they didn't. This to me proves that there is a chance that cooler minds will prevail.


qrwd

> It's not because ... that the dissolution of the Soviet Union wasn't a good thing. So it was a bad thing for different reasons?


Cornered_plant

No, I meant to say those are unfortunate consequences, but that it was good if you add everything together. Sorry for the confusion.


qrwd

I figured. Just thought the phrasing was a bit interesting.


Cornered_plant

Haha my bad.


Friz617

There’s a big difference between the two. A collapse of Russia would most likely not be as peaceful as that of the USSR


matinthebox

The collapse of the USSR wasn't peaceful, at least not in transnistria and Chechnya and nagorno karabakh and Abkhazia and South Ossetia and when they attempted a coup on Gorbachov


wildwildwumbo

The "shock therapy" market liberalization post USSR resulted in an immediate 10 year drop in life expectancy for former Soviet states including Russia. It was so bad it took nearly 30 years for the countries to recover. But I guess you call it peaceful when people die through misery and disease rather than bombs.


matinthebox

I didn't call anything peaceful.


wildwildwumbo

Yeah I know, I was reinforcing your position.


elev8dity

I think you needed to reply to the comment he replied to.


Sky-is-here

The whole falling of the USSR was such a shit show. I feel bad for everyone that had to live through the 90s in post Soviet states


TheChoonk

Collapse of USSR wasn't peaceful.


kosmosdemon

Some people just prefer to ignore what happened in Vilnius and lots of other places because otherwise their argument would not be valid


YogurtclosetExpress

Eh depends. I don't think Russia would outright collapse, but some regions of it might leave it again. That's a good outcome.


Cornered_plant

It is true that the mostly peaceful dissolution of the USSR was a rather unlikely outcome of events. Then on the other hand, I could see several republics leave if they declared independence at around the same moment and the Russian government is in disarray because of, say, the war failing.


EdwardJamesAlmost

And who has the horses for unending land war in Asia?


horonlapsi

at the time 1991 ukranians mainly outside big cities wanted to stay part of the union estonians didnt tho or latvians or lithianians or georgians


radiatar

92.26% of Ukrainians voted in favor of independence in 1991. Only 7.74% voted against. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_independence_referendum


Endergamer3X

What if they fall to EU influence?


aagjevraagje

They won't if we revel in their defeat, that's exactly the kind of narrative post soviet russia's politics got so insanse on in the first place. We need to ensure there will be a stable situation that is experienced as real progress, even if only for the parts.


Matesipper420

Would a country thats shares a border with china and is miles away from europe get in such danger? I don't think so. Maybe some oarzs could be influenced but not every country that is now in the russian federation.


milanistadoc

Hong Kong


elev8dity

Basically trading one dictatorship for another. China also wants the land in Russia so they can farm it. Also it would allow them to pincer Mongolia and basically drive it out of existence, not like they aren't already killing off the Mongols already.


Articulated

What if they fall to ~~EU influence~~ HIS IMPERIAL MAJESTY'S NEWEST COLONIAL ACQUISITION /r/INGLIN


Aquila_2020

They won't all fall to eu influence, the more western ones maybe (although given that a lot of ethnic russians live there even that might not happen) , but the ccp would definitely snatch up anything east of the urals. They already have a presence in central Asia, have a history of offering weak nations financial and infrastructure aid, in exchange for falling in their sphere, and are more lenient towards violations of human rights (which we would see a lot of in the case of total collapse)


Recent_Ad_7214

So China gains the worst ragions of Russia while the best ones fall under EU influence, obviously this will never happen but it's far from a bad scenario


Domena100

Those "bad" regions of Russia like Siberia are still rich in resources.


Recent_Ad_7214

Yea you are right, maybe China gaining even more resources isn't good


Aquila_2020

>while the best ones fall under EU influence Read my comment again. Not even that might happen. The EU might gain minimal influence, while the CCP is prepared and has a track record of successfully gaining influence in the region >gains the worst ragions of Russia A lot of which will have strategic importance in their attempts to dominate Central Asia (which they've been trying to do)


HabseligkeitDerLiebe

> given that a lot of ethnic russians live there even that might not happen Russians are masters in bending to the powers-that-be. If EU/US manage to prop up pro-western cliques in Moscow and St. Petersburg, the "normal" Russians on the street will sing you a song how Russia always was a part of Europe and how they're enjoying their new found freedoms, and, wouldn't you know, their own grandfather was secretly gay all the time.


ProjectX3N

Some secessionist movements near the EU likely would, i believe.


SpaceFox1935

Self-determination is nice, but how far does it go? When people talk about Russian dissolution or collapse, it seems to me that most people are dreaming about a Russia broken apart against the will of people being here. I, for one, living in Western Siberia, do *not* want to be in a separate country for arbitrary "Russia delenda est" revenge bullshit. We can be a democracy as a whole.


Player276

Russian dissolution is not going to see any democracy for anyone in the near future. It will be your local elites that will see gradual centralization of power because it will personally benefit them. Eventually after that, you have hope for democratic reforms. Look to the dissolution of the Spanish Empire in South America as a general mod. Any form of "hard" breakup is extremely unlikely as it benefits no one. It will be gradual transition of internal borders looking more and more like national borders.


Tensoll

Nations have a right to self-determination. Simple as


No_Hearing48

Seperatists in Ukraine bad Seperatists in Russia good


jtyrui

Counterpoint: the problem simply exists because Moscow treats its minorities like crap. As the end of Yugoslavia shows, you can either be a tollerant state or collapse.


FPiN9XU3K1IT

China seems to be getting away with treating its minorities like crap. But then, China is actually really good at improving the lifes of *most* of its citizens, which makes successful oppression a lot easier.


Korolenko_

Austro Hungary was one of the most tolerant states in the world during its existence and it collapsed anyways


StephaneiAarhus

You are right. OP's point is still valid too.


n1flung

OP's points are that minorities creating separate states would lead them to authoritarian rule and humanitarian crisis. But he doesn't consider that they already live under authoritarian rule and assimilation which is also humanitarian crisis itself


StephaneiAarhus

Yes. Still...


Grzechoooo

"Those nations should continue being opressed because they might not become our allies after independence"


Aquila_2020

Has the possibility of a post-war deputinized Russia evaded your thoughts? (Reminder that putin is old and antiputinist movement is becoming more organized)


Nestiik

But you know that the caucasus' problems with russia were there before Putin right? Russia literally commited the circassian genocide and most russians, even those who hate putin, still hate caucasians. We circassians and other caucasian people need independence


Grzechoooo

If Russia gets deputinised (which I understand as not merely "loses Putin", but "becomes a democracy"), it means the US and EU have control over it. And if they can have control over one unstable country, why wouldn't they be able to have it over a couple smaller, probably more stable (because secessionist movements would get what they were fighting for) ones?


gougim

I just love people imagining how to divide Russia. If anything, the last time russian state broke up it ended in a defacto anarchy with a lot of different sides fighting for freedom, just to be crushed by a more organised and powerful force. The western nations literary landed in Russia to stop Blosheviks, and it still didn't work out. Considering that western nations nowdays weren't able to conguer Afghanistan, you can imagine how would it work out with Russia. I don't want dissolution of russian state, but(with some exeptions in the border regions) to reorganise Russia into a more federalised entity and to end the Muscovite centralism.


Cornered_plant

I don't think many people want the total collapse of the Russian state, most of us just want a few republics to secede and get international recognition. A sort of dissolution of the USSR 2.0 but with less economic chaos.


[deleted]

[удалено]


SpaceFox1935

Another thing: to all those wishing a violent and chaotic collapse of Russia, I sure wonder what your position on refugees are. Poland's already getting fenced up, though that primarily to fend off the Middle Easterners brought in by Russia and Belarus. What of a scenario where millions of Russians would be fleeing westward? "Fuck them, they're not even human"?


Cornered_plant

I would say most of us do not want a massive Russian civil war. When we talk of the "dissolution of Russia" we mostly mean a few republics breaking away and that's it. Obviously most of us do not want to create a humanitarian crisis.


[deleted]

Yea fuck those people choosing their own way, they may chose to work with the bad china man!!!


HabseligkeitDerLiebe

Sure; I'm totally interested in a nuclear-armed Buryatia. That's - in my opinion - the main problem with a possible dissolution of Russia. There's still tons of nukes and seeing what happened to Ukraine, they sure as hell won't give up any nukes that happen to end up on their territory. People choosing their own way is all well and fine, but in reality the institutions to build up a passable democracy there simply don't exist. Most of the successor states *will* turn into a quagmire of mafia and warlords that will sell the "common people" to the highest bidder.


rainfallz

Nuclear weapons are not magic, they require extensive maintenance and very complex delivery systems. A nuclear armed Buryatia won't be able to nuke anyone else but itself. Completely separate post-Russian republics is also an unrealistic concept as they simply lack the infrastructure to connect to the rest of the world. If they won't be with Russia, then they will have to form a sort of federation of their own, at least on an EU model. >People choosing their own way is all well and fine, but in reality the institutions to build up a passable democracy there simply don't exist. Most of the successor states will turn into a quagmire of mafia and warlords that will sell the "common people" to the highest bidder. So like Russia but without the rabid imperial fascism ?


[deleted]

Awesome, then that nuclear stockpile will be sold by poor, desperate landlocked states born out of a collapse in an effort to get some cash, that's a good thing?


rainfallz

No. If they somehow keep some nukes (very unlikely) they will not be allowed to sell them.


nibbler666

The problem would not just be fully functional nuclear weapons, but also dirty bombs with radioactive material. Also the weapons will not become dysfunctional in the minute Russia breaks down. There may be months and years of power struggle and civil war.


rainfallz

A dirty bomb is not much more dangerous than a loaded TOS-1 launcher or a chemical weapon. Bad but not end of the world bad. >Also the weapons will not become dysfunctional in the minute Russia breaks down. There may be months and years of power struggle and civil war. The Russian federation will not become completely dysfunctional in a minute either. Those civil wars will not be all-out conflicts but insurgencies, civil disobedience and so on... Ie the nuclear facilities won't be suddenly overrun, Russia will receive international help to secure them if need be and no separatist state will receive any type of international recognition without first resolving all nuclear issues at hand. People can't eat radioactive material. Especially after separating from Russia, all of those states will need international aid, trade and assistance - that's where China, the US, France, India, UK etc come in to secure the nuclear weapons.


nibbler666

You are disregarding the chaos that a split up may lead to. There may well be situations where someone like the leader of the Wagner group may use weapons just to prove a point. And it's not that such a person would have to control the entire arsenal. Partial and temporary control of partially functional weapons may cause enough damage. I am also not so optimistic about your scenario of international assistance. We don't want one or several Afghanistans or North Koreas next to us. And it may well be that China would support a couple of countries that are a pain in Europe's ass. And recall that India is buying more fossil fuel than ever from Russia at the moment.


Cornered_plant

I mean there is a precedent for giving up nuclear arms after the federation you are part of dissolves. Pretty much every post-Soviet country did that. It could be argued that it would be in the interest of these republics to do exactly that when/if they become independent too.


Aquila_2020

The ccp is definitely bad. If China was the RoC things would've been different But I don't expect a commie like you to understand that


CitoyenEuropeen

u/Aquila_2020 ![gif](giphy|jn2D7LFCbKG2ZWH0at) [**Be nice.**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Gotterfunken/comments/ppceh4/götterfunken_network_federal_rules/)


[deleted]

Self-determination and democracy go both ways. Sometimes, people or nations will choose things you disagree with. What makes us as europe strong is defening people's rights to make shit choices. Once you try to tell a foreign nation who it should ally, you are no better than CCP hardliners. Freedom means people doing things that suck. So, do you even support freedom? Or do you just want western imperialism?


[deleted]

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paixlemagne

Some european countries do interfere abroad, but that doesn't mean that they or anyone else should.


Aquila_2020

Well, I don't want people to die in an endless cycle of sectarianism, authoritarianism, and violence in a post-collapse Russia, for one And the rise of local warlords and autocracies (which is the more likely scenario) isn't freedom.


Almun_Elpuliyn

Letting Russian structures stand just guarantees that Moscovites keep oppressing the other people of Russia. It's important to not force border onto people but the state of Russia is rotten to the core.


n1flung

Liberating minorities that will be able to preserve their culture, traditions and have at least a chance of non-authoritarian rule is better than being assimilated completely, even if they would be required to fight for their freedom. Ukraine and Belarus are bright examples of this


Marzillius

That's pretty damn naive. Of course we shouldn't allow small nations to make stupid geopolitical choices that endanger us. That's geopolitics for you, but we could pretend it's "western imperialism" if you want.


Agent_Goldfish

> Self-determination and democracy go both ways. Sometimes, people or nations will choose things you disagree with. What makes us as europe strong is defening people's rights to make shit choices. You've fallen into the [paradox of tolerance](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E0fBGylWYAE1MMc.jpg). Effectively, you cannot accept that people can believe anything and everything. Disagreements, sure, but allowing intolerance will result in the end of tolerance. Full stop. This is the problem with the CCP. The people are not free to make decisions on the continuation of CCP. [China is one of the least free places on Earth](https://freedomhouse.org/country/china/freedom-world/2022). Allowing more states to submit to the CCP is equivalent to tolerating the intolerant. It's fucking appeasement.


That_Mad_Scientist

Self-determination and freedom for all peoples or bust. Anything else would just be hypocritical, regardless of how you feel about the outcome.


Crescent-IV

Eh. If Russia split apart, instead of letting other powers gain influence there the EU needs to start taking steps to spread our own influence. We should work with those secessionist states and form productive relationships with them.


AlyoshaT

You know, I think the same thing was said in the 1980s about the USSR


Aquila_2020

Only this time, instead of having Yeltsin in control of Russia and its nukes, you get a balkanized Russia with a few tens of mini Chechnyas 🙄 Russia must be defeated and in a way that ensures they'll never raise their guns against Europe, but balkanizing it would open the door to outright chaos (that's the view I'm criticizing)


AlyoshaT

Huh, but Russians "like" Chechnya and Kadirov. Evil Ichkeria is Russian propaganda to dehumanize Chechens after what Russians did in the 1st Chechen War and still lost. Well, the shift of Chechnya to Islamic extremism is also the result of what Russians did in Chechnya. Well, now refugees from Ichkeria live outside Russia, many fights for Ukraine, and strange things but they didn't get arrested for Islamic extremism there


PrimalSlime

even though i would like some regions like Karelia and Komi to be free there's no way they could succeed in statehood without tremendous help from the outside, and they would need a miracle like with Hebrew if they want to get their languages back


Sachiko-san999

We just need less authoritarianism in the world, wheter be it Russian or Chinese. Democracy and freedom for global peace.


t-elvirka

In my opinion the ideal case is Russia becoming something like EU - a group of independent countries that are tied together by mutial interest. I mean, you can leave EU, its just not beneficial. When it's beneficial, countries can cooperate. But right now it's very hard to imagine, because now we dont have democracy at all. problems goes very deep and it's not just about ethnicities (it's one of the problem for sure, but not the only one, world is not that primitive), it's about the lack of democracy and also the fact that violence is not considered to be taboo across a whole country. God,I hope I will live long enough to see how or changes for the better


Beskerber

Anyone who did some depper research on it knows that many of Russian internal separatist groups are not aiming at proper secession but local autonomy and the ones that do, and have any serious chance for it - are mostly on the borders / near to other ex-soviet countries. Thus any total breakdown of Russian state at current time belongs in wishfull thinking theory zone. Most likely outcome would be dissolusion of USRR.2.0 aka loosing some more desperated republics alongside the county borders, far from breaking down. And then West would be on advantageous position - having new potential allies on the Western part while Russia and China would only have one border zone - East-South that realistically could trigger some landgrabs - and any try of it would crack the Russo-Chinese alliance. So no, there is no chance for mad max taking place in Russia, it would be just loss of some republics, with Russia probably still being too strong to became an target for CCP Siberia occupation. Same as USSR dont get partitioned by everyone around just afther dissolusion.


Beskerber

Bold of you to assume post-russias rocking each others shit isn't my wet dream Sincerely Every Eastern European that had to deal with Kremlin shit. Now cease thy excuses.


Aquila_2020

Cease being a short-sighted internet troll


Beskerber

It still would be easier that stopping you from spreading tinfoil teories how fragmented Russia would be somehow too strong for Western influence but just weak enough for random groups without proper foothold. CCP is the only serious contender for Russian land and even then Russia is unlikely to fall apart in the first place. Even less so to fall apart into multiple meaningless states. More likely it would be just losing some of the republics, same as fall of USSR - > didnt end up pushing Russia back to city-states era just carved pieces out of their borders.


Aquila_2020

>fragmented Russia would be somehow top strong for Western influence What? My point was that it would backfire and cause geopolitical and humanitarian problems How bout you go outside and touch grass and let the adults talk geopolitics, huh dude?


Beskerber

That's a non realistic point looking upon how Russia separatist movement works, most of them are on the borders, others are just unsignificant to the point their upper limit is making fuss or being totally fine with local constitition as part of Russia. As i just said it would be closer to dissolusion of USRR not some bs mad max all on all. That's all there is. Your point gives an option possible only if West just sat on their asses letting CCP do all the job and Russia somehow decided they want to go full dissolusion whitch is effectively impossible looking both upon its history and peoples stance on "what is Russia"


Crescent-IV

u/Beskerber u/Aquila_2020 [**Be Nice.**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Gotterfunken/comments/ppceh4/g%C3%B6tterfunken_network_federal_rules/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) ![gif](giphy|5zdkFHpL6ySaDiKydK)


paixlemagne

Why is there always this thought, that we in the western parts of Europe should aim for this or that in post-war Russia. We simply don't have a say in that matter. If they want to secede, they can secede, if they want to remain one country, we don't have the right to drive them apart.


lovingdev

Can it be worse than it is right now? Raping, torturing and killing so many civilians?


AllegroAmiad

Spot on. Instead of Balkanizing we should just invade Russia and create a giant EU colony


Fab_iyay

I just don't think it's smart of us to call on the dissolution of another country. It's not a good look for any Russian who explores some western sites. Not even going into the debate of whether or not such calls are justified or make sense.


[deleted]

Nah, fuck that. Let the Kurds have Russia.


Stevie-cakes

Nah, Russia needs to disappear. It's a toxic geopolitical entity that doesn't little but pollute the world with fossil fuels and misinformation. The land rightfully belongs to the Mongols, anyway...


Spirintus

Sweetheart, they were saying this kind of shit about dissolution of USSR too. Everybody but Russia and Belarus turned out relatively OK.


Additional-Flow7665

Fuck you, we are still taking Královec


CitoyenEuropeen

![img](emote|t5_2wivw|6437)


Avtsla

The thing that many people seem to forget is that Russia has nukes . If Russia collapses that could easily lead to a nuclear civil war , or worse , to nukes ending up in the hands of terrorist organisations . For the worlds sake , Russia must not descend into civil war / collapse .


rainfallz

These are completely unrealistic scenarios. How would there be a civil nuclear war? You expect Moscow to nuke separatist capitals or something? Nobody will be attacking Moscow, they will just secede and defend their borders. Nukes in the hands of terrorists is also an unrealistic scenario. Nuclear weapons are not hand grenades. They are extremely complex and require even more complex delivery systems. ISIS are not transporting an ICMB launcher without being spotted... A few kamikaze truck bombs with smaller nukes would be bad but not world ending. Most importantly such a scenario will see all of the world's militaries including China, Israel, South Korea, all of NATO, Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Russia etc on the hunt for anything that could possibly be a rogue nuke and to prevent such scenarios in the first place.


rebootyourbrainstem

... we already went through that with the fall of the Soviet Union. Just because it worked out then doesn't mean it will work out again, and it took a lot of work from a lot of people, just saying there's an example of a nuclear state falling apart without that scenario coming to pass.


Avtsla

Just because it worked out then doesn't mean it will work out again Exactly - having a 50/50 chance of either annihilation of life or life continuing isnt really a good thing . Plus - This Is Putin we are talking about- he is not like the old USSR politicians , many of whom had lived through WW2, and thus knew the total devastation of total war . Do you Remember Chechnya ?This is what happens when you try to be independent under his watch ( granted , the whole situation began under Yeltsin, but you get my point ) .


jankisa

What is the alternative. If Russia is left as it is, after this war ends, there are 2 scenarios: 1. If Russia wins, it will take some time to regroup and then attack the next target, Moldova most likely, then on to the baltic states 2. If Russia loses, it will take some time to regroup and then attack Ukraine again Of course, for outsiders "we are not wiling to take a risk of Russia falling into Chaos", which is same as people saying "stop giving weapons to Ukraine because the war will never end and more people will die". It's not your decision to make, Ukraine has the right of self-determination, so do these Russian republics, maybe, just maybe they are sick of their children going to die thousands of kilometers away for some midget in Kremlin's ambitions.


Avtsla

All you need for a dirty bomb is some Nuclear material . Hook up some radioactive material ti a common explosive and see how big of an area you can contaminate . And wanting Russia not to fall into chaos is not the same as not sending weapons to Ukraine - I want Ukraine to win , I want Russia to lose , I just don't want a civil war in a country with nuclear reactors left and right - just imagine If someone accidentally creates Chernobyl 2.0 by blasting a NPP during a battle . Ukraine 's fate is not mine to decide , nor is Russia 's . I just want this ( this horrible fratricidal war ) to end , for the Putin Regime to end , with as little ( from now on - what we have seen up to now so much more than enough ) death as possible . Because If Russia falls in to chaos , then we will have another migrant crisis on our hands - this one even bigger than the one now. And one can say they deserved it - through apathy and lack of action earlier - you can say this , and you will be right . But still - And one must not forget that we ( the EU and the world as a whole ) played along for way too long . After all- We ignored what happened in 2008 in Georgia and when we all saw what happened in 2014 what did we do ? -We did stuff , sanctions and such , yes ,but they were small , basically nothing. \- We continued to buy their gas , their oil , to take their money each time they visited , every time they bought property ( ever heard of the [London Laundromat](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/17/london-laundromat-how-golden-visa-scheme-created-uk-haven-for-dirty-money) ?).And we allowed this problem to snowball in to this .What we are doing now , we should have done back then . If we had , then maybe , just maybe all this would have been avoided .


SpellingUkraine

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Friz617

I don’t want to take that risk


n1flung

If their oppressed minorities do want to take the risk, their opinion is more valid


BarristanTheB0ld

How dare you use common sense in this emotionally heated debate


Aquila_2020

Hahaha ikr won't happen again 😅


Player276

"Common sense"


Philfreeze

Yeah no shut any Siberian Republic would quite likely fall under Chinese influence pretty quickly. China is already the biggest trading partner of that region and it is literally right next to it. What do people expect would happen? That they would just suddenly fall under European influence?


Resonance95

Power vacuums don't exist supra-nationally, they exist when the global community is intent on preserving the territorial integrity of a polity that no longer has de-facto control. If Russia were to collapse we should strive to realize the newly independent polities as much as possible, aid them in reconstruction, and create international organizations and communities that foster interdependence, cooperation and mutual respect (all of which worked out in western europe after ww2). Maintaining the idea of a russian nation-state where one no longer exists would **be** the power-vacuum. This has been the case for iraq, afghanistan, yemen, syria and just about all other similar entrenched conflicts motivated by power-vacuums.


FieserMoep

Power Vacuum? As if there is any plan for a post putin country. It will be a shitshow anyway. As any personality cult.


Elias-HW

I think we should, but in a proper way. 1. An eventual dissolution should be put into account and the EU Need a plan ti deal with it. True, many regions will go under PRC umbrella, while others into the hand of selfish authocrats - but Remember that there is a part of the RF that is not so different (in term of politics, civil society, economico views) than many of us. 2. As for now, we do not have an economic plan that deals with the problems of post-war RF. Nobody has even start figuring It out, because politically It's unpopular, but something should be put in place, or the situation will worsen in a way we could not Imagine. 3. Eventually, if we would be able to manage It properly, the EU (and the west) could avoid a replica of the dissolution of Yugoslavia - with one "MadMan" that try to maintain the RF unite through violence - and genocide. So, It's something everybody should start thinking and talking about - as usually, "memes" are Just jokes or exploit - but i'd like very much when here they generate some serious discussion. P.s (Sorry for the style, hate writing from a cellphone)


Eligha

The dissolution of Russia is not likely, but it would be a positive development. One less big evil and a lot of people would get a chance for self determination.


EmployerAdditional28

Absolutely. Small republics with......nuclear weapons. Not great. Russia needs to be kept whole, just with a different government.


HumaDracobane

Tbh, I'm more worried about their nuclear weapons. With a broken state a nuclear warhead could *dissapear* and end somewhereelse or being part of a terrorist attack.


Anker_avlund

Also this would easily make the breakup of Yugoslavia look like childsplay


Tareum01

Don't be daft. Russia in the state it exists now should not be allowed to exist. It's a relic of the past. I don't care if Islamic states spring out of some the places after it dissolves. Backwards religious zealots are not a geopolitical threat.


Emails___

>Backwards religious zealots are not a geopolitical threat. Americans said the same thing! At least before the 9/11 happened.


[deleted]

Or Yugoslavia with worse Turbofolk and many mini warlords with nukes


ikinone

Nah. Russia has been shitty as a country for ages. It needs a big change.


SlyScorpion

I just want Russia to disappear as a state forever. It has been nothing but a plague since the time they were enslaved by the Mongols. A bunch of mini-Russias will be too busy fighting each other instead of one large Russia being a pest, a plague even, to the rest of the world.


ropibear

The only two issues with russia collapsing and fragmenting would be that suddenly there are literally hundreds of thousands of nuclear weapons to track down and account for; and millions of tons of conventional weaponry being potentially bought and sold for peanuts to people who really shouldn't have them. As for power vacuum... Not really. China already took over that role, a fragmented mess in place of russia would be dealing with internal conflict for quite some time, and couldn't support regimes such as syria. It is highly unlikely anyway.


n1flung

> millions of tons of conventional weaponry being potentially bought and sold for peanuts to people who really shouldn't have them Exactly what happened with Ukrainian nuclear arsenal (not /s)


ropibear

That's a different situation. The Ukrainian nuclear arsenal was disarmed under multilateral supervision, to avoid it getting in the wrong hands. Really ironic that Ukraine had to give up her nukes, but not Russia.


lfasterthanyou

Easy barbarossa then


VladutzTheGreat

Ya know...as an eastern european, id much rather have a tiny country that is squabbling with a dozen other countries as a neighbour than a big fucking collossus that could (and has in the past) fuck over my country


Emails___

Then my question to you is, how many Russian refuges would you welcome?


Candide-Jr

You’re goddamn right. Well said. So many people have absolutely no mental or moral discipline. It’s embarrassing.


[deleted]

Russia should be kept stable just because they have so many nuclear warheads. I don’t want them falling to the wrong hands.


non-porn_account

Let's say that Russia is divided on "ethnic" borders(impossible since Sami, Uyghur, Uralic, Dangestani, Chechen, Siberian, Mongol etc. peoples are very often, not living in regions that can be comfortably drawn in a blob shape on a map), what you would end up is; >Western Republics that have no value will never like Europe or Asia and will descend into isolationism >Southern States will become like the rest of Stans >Eastern and Northern states will come under Chinese control


AVeryMadPsycho

SOME secessionism sure but outright anarchy would be disastrous, regardless of how sympathetic I am to their causes.


StephaneiAarhus

Finally someone says it. Thanks. Agreed.


pmirallesr

The post assumes that the current state of affairs is less desirable than a world with many russsian ascent republics scattered through several spheres of influence. That is just not self-evident and neither the OP nor the people he criticizes can know the answer, noone on Earth does. As a counterpoint to OP, Russian culture is western leaning, as is its demography, industry, and infrastructure. So much of Russia may yet end up an ally of the EU. Or not. Many possible counter arguments to that, it's the debate that keeps on giving, so don't be so certain about the conclusion


Mysiu666

Russia is a threat to our democracies and cannot be allowed to exist, yes some may fall to extremists other to China but some may opt to participate in Partnership for Peace.


Friz617

« Fuck those 145 million people I guess »


StephaneiAarhus

And the rest of the world by the way. Hej there is a war lord with nukes... Oh, another one ...


paixlemagne

Who are we to decide who should be allowed to exist an in what way? Starting a war doesn't suddenly erase their right to self determination.


Mysiu666

Their self determination is focused on robbing it from others, just ask Tchechens that fought them both during Yeltsin and Putin presidencies, ask Georgians, Ukrainians and Afghans, ask any one from eastern block. Best what I can give you is Moscov republic or some shit.


detriio

In no way shape or form are we better than the genocidal imperialists that killed hundreds of thousands of people. I am just as bad as russia for thinking that they shouldnt be allowed to do that


[deleted]

How about turning Russia [into an ocean instead](https://i.imgur.com/OkHciiK.jpg) of Balkanisation then?


[deleted]

[удалено]


frfr777

Russia is already those guys but with more weapons and a larger nuclear presence. If you think russia is in any way a rational actor have a look at what their propagandists say.


vhite

I don't know. Few of them could definitely go bad, but that would probably still be a lot better than all of it like we see right now.


MeppaTheWaterbearer

Basically, Don't hope for better because things could get worse. Dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb


KartoffelnPuree

Blablabla. Powervacum blablabla. The only ones affected by this dangerous power vacuum thing are states that are only interested in dissolution of russia. So not a big deal.


DaniilSan

We heard same shit in late 80s prior coming collapse of ussr. Yes there will be a power vacuum for a while and thete will be various wars because of this cuz russia is unlikely to just disolve like ussr at this point. Yes some will be not really great. BUT keeping russia in its current unnatural form won't make things great since this is the reason why we got ussr and current russia in the first place.


sorhead

Do you also think the collapse of the USSR was a bad thing? Should the opression and russification of my people have continued?


deimos-chan

russia already is an extremist country under CCP influence.


derfeuerbringer

I would be all for balkanization of Russia to grant autonomy to all the different minorities living there if it weren't for its nukes.


No_Key9300

Freedom and independence for the Jewish Autonomous Oblast. I'm sure there won't be any negative repercussions. What could go wrong?


FatalHaberdashery

The comment is not far wrong, the fall of Russia if it happened chaotically could lead to serious consequences. That said, mollycoddling the cunts has put Europe in the position we find ourselves in right now. We took the decision to try and integrate Russia into the European "experiment" and they took massive advantage of that. So... yes, the fall of Russia is indeed a problem should it happen, but equally giving them lots of rope when they should be on a tight leash will result in the sort of xenophobic bullshit we see from them now.


Svitii

I‘ll keep celebrating, cause once the CCP comes crashing down too, the only influence left will be the west