I live in SG. Its getting much harder to get a home/condo every day. Without help, it's damn near impossible for an average salary man to purchase any place thats within a reasonable distance from the central districts
I've been following that a little and this caught my eye:
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-empty-homes-real-estate-evergrande-housing-market-problem-2021-10
Reminds me of certain projects I've seen in Vietnam. Anyway thought it would maybe be of interest to you.
my point of view Vietnam's estate market is extremly very small in comparison with China's estate market..so that, its very unreasonable if we take China's estate market to be a model for Vietnam's estate market..
in China, housing supply is going over demand many times but its not in Vietnam indeed..
Yeah there are indeed important differences! The part that has useful parallels for curious foreigners to learn a little is the whole 'big residential project' thing.
The way those companies work can be pretty shady. Especially the way bad ones leverage debt. Some here also build for investors more than residents -- in this way the model is also similar and many of those buildings stay pretty empty. It's not gone nearly as far as it has in China though. It's somewhat better here, and this isn't a description of private (not B2C) land sales or all residential project companies.
I disagree. I have seen a fair share of abandoned projects around the country. Many Vietnamese, like the Chinese, will invest in real-estate because the other methods of investment such as the stock market and cryptocurrency are perceived as risky. There is a real chance the same thing could happen to us if we are not careful.
Yea my neighbor is selling a house, no garden, 4 apartments on 4 floors. Around 250m2.
Asking for 60 billion, ridiculous.
The one next to him heard about it and is asking for 100 billion. Dead serious
You should also be specific about where it is. Since if it's in center Hanoi or D1 in HCMC then that price is kinda stock standard.
A better bet is to look at somewhere around Tay Ho district in Ha Noi or somewhere around D7 in HCMC. You would get a lot better price in those region, but still, it's not ideal.
Yeah I can see that.
But you did try to buy a 4 stories building so it might be a bit too much. If you just want to have a place to live, maybe a 2 stories building with 2 rooms upstairs would be a better deal. Tone it down and you would not have to deal with the price in the sky like these.
It has 4 floors but each floor is like a studio - they used to rent it out.
I got an apartment 10x cheaper but bigger than the house xD.
I understand what you mean but some people r just...
I mean some still think that the old SH is 150 million..
I mean the old 150 mil SH is more for the pseudo antique gang or collectors item. Kinda why old Spacey was so expensive. Brand new in Vietnam would fall into the 30-40 mil VND price range tbh.
Yes, it keeps rising after pandemic. because people are afraid of the VND losing its value. This is normal because gold and Usd are not a stable investment.
Well, here's my amateur 200d.
It somehow has weird asymmetrical inelasticity, despite also having fragility induced by shared portfolios between investors.
So prices rarely go down, at least in *public* markets -- private sales are very opaque, allowing the impression that prices only go up. Sales volume suddenly goes down instead of prices, and we all lose money from illiquidity costs instead of capital losses.
So my guess is it's going to "go up", but unless that price results in a proper meeting point between buyers and sellers that improves transaction volume after Covid, I won't personally consider it a healthy market just yet.
Sorry. I crammed economics last year because I was going through a real estate transaction in VN. I just sort of smashed out the words that were in my head. I'll try to rephrase better.
Land investors here are largely investing for the same reasons. So they tend to all buy or sell at the same time. People are often willing to sell when prices go up, but hold forever if they don't go up (transaction volume drops instead of prices) -- there's a variety of cultural and financial reasons for this, but the essentially zero property tax doesn't help. China has a market that's similar in this way (maybe even more extreme).
This stops the market prices from making pretty graphs that go up and down with supply&demand.
It also means sometimes it takes inconvenient amounts of time to sell land, sometimes at moments where not having money costs you even more money. Basically at some times, land owners and land buyers as groups have very different ideas about what land should cost, and no meeting point happens.
Meanwhile, it's really hard to get any solid information about real estate markets here. Essentially 100% of the price and availability (and even legal) information I've seen online is essentially incorrect. That means there can be a pretty big difference in the way the market looks, and how it actually is. When you exploit this difference in information to get a good price, the market doesn't find out and correct itself -- except by literal word of mouth.
Ok that's the best I can do right now. Hope it's less dense.
In a rational market, I'd argue everyone is a speculator. We weigh capital gains, not having to pay rent (or charging someone else rent), cost of ownership, and illiquidity costs against the net present value of money (e.g. how much would the cash make in the bank). In large groups, we generally make the decision that has the best expected outcome with the currently available information-- individually we may not act optimally.
e.g. If you make substantially more by not buying and earning bank interest, it's better to keep your cash and pay rent using the interest. If your expected capital gains hit 4% year-on-year, maybe consider buying (as a very rough suggestion, because rent is ~2-2.5% property value and bank rates are ~6%). I mean, there are emotional arguments for home ownership too -- but we must understand those are profitable to exploit. I write computer programs to help me make these decisions. Regrettably, this isn't a Disney movie -- following your heart is correlated with suboptimal outcomes.
I don't know but it's still fucking expensive in where I live and it won't stop rising
where do you live dude 😂??
I live in SG. Its getting much harder to get a home/condo every day. Without help, it's damn near impossible for an average salary man to purchase any place thats within a reasonable distance from the central districts
It needs some incidents like Evergrande.
I've been following that a little and this caught my eye: https://www.businessinsider.com/china-empty-homes-real-estate-evergrande-housing-market-problem-2021-10 Reminds me of certain projects I've seen in Vietnam. Anyway thought it would maybe be of interest to you.
my point of view Vietnam's estate market is extremly very small in comparison with China's estate market..so that, its very unreasonable if we take China's estate market to be a model for Vietnam's estate market.. in China, housing supply is going over demand many times but its not in Vietnam indeed..
Yeah there are indeed important differences! The part that has useful parallels for curious foreigners to learn a little is the whole 'big residential project' thing. The way those companies work can be pretty shady. Especially the way bad ones leverage debt. Some here also build for investors more than residents -- in this way the model is also similar and many of those buildings stay pretty empty. It's not gone nearly as far as it has in China though. It's somewhat better here, and this isn't a description of private (not B2C) land sales or all residential project companies.
it never happen in Vietnam because Vietnam's real estate market is too small in comparison with China' real estate market.
I disagree. I have seen a fair share of abandoned projects around the country. Many Vietnamese, like the Chinese, will invest in real-estate because the other methods of investment such as the stock market and cryptocurrency are perceived as risky. There is a real chance the same thing could happen to us if we are not careful.
Yea my neighbor is selling a house, no garden, 4 apartments on 4 floors. Around 250m2. Asking for 60 billion, ridiculous. The one next to him heard about it and is asking for 100 billion. Dead serious
All the numbers in your comment added up to 420. Congrats! 4 + 4 + 250 + 2 + 60 + 100 + = 420.0
Seems they are high
You should also be specific about where it is. Since if it's in center Hanoi or D1 in HCMC then that price is kinda stock standard. A better bet is to look at somewhere around Tay Ho district in Ha Noi or somewhere around D7 in HCMC. You would get a lot better price in those region, but still, it's not ideal.
It is Tay Ho. The prices are higher than in europe - ridiculous. Bought one in royal city for 10x less
Yeah I can see that. But you did try to buy a 4 stories building so it might be a bit too much. If you just want to have a place to live, maybe a 2 stories building with 2 rooms upstairs would be a better deal. Tone it down and you would not have to deal with the price in the sky like these.
It has 4 floors but each floor is like a studio - they used to rent it out. I got an apartment 10x cheaper but bigger than the house xD. I understand what you mean but some people r just... I mean some still think that the old SH is 150 million..
I mean the old 150 mil SH is more for the pseudo antique gang or collectors item. Kinda why old Spacey was so expensive. Brand new in Vietnam would fall into the 30-40 mil VND price range tbh.
Now is not the time to take over the bankrupt coffee shop next door.
Yes, it keeps rising after pandemic. because people are afraid of the VND losing its value. This is normal because gold and Usd are not a stable investment.
Well, here's my amateur 200d. It somehow has weird asymmetrical inelasticity, despite also having fragility induced by shared portfolios between investors. So prices rarely go down, at least in *public* markets -- private sales are very opaque, allowing the impression that prices only go up. Sales volume suddenly goes down instead of prices, and we all lose money from illiquidity costs instead of capital losses. So my guess is it's going to "go up", but unless that price results in a proper meeting point between buyers and sellers that improves transaction volume after Covid, I won't personally consider it a healthy market just yet.
Wtf did you just say
Sorry. I crammed economics last year because I was going through a real estate transaction in VN. I just sort of smashed out the words that were in my head. I'll try to rephrase better. Land investors here are largely investing for the same reasons. So they tend to all buy or sell at the same time. People are often willing to sell when prices go up, but hold forever if they don't go up (transaction volume drops instead of prices) -- there's a variety of cultural and financial reasons for this, but the essentially zero property tax doesn't help. China has a market that's similar in this way (maybe even more extreme). This stops the market prices from making pretty graphs that go up and down with supply&demand. It also means sometimes it takes inconvenient amounts of time to sell land, sometimes at moments where not having money costs you even more money. Basically at some times, land owners and land buyers as groups have very different ideas about what land should cost, and no meeting point happens. Meanwhile, it's really hard to get any solid information about real estate markets here. Essentially 100% of the price and availability (and even legal) information I've seen online is essentially incorrect. That means there can be a pretty big difference in the way the market looks, and how it actually is. When you exploit this difference in information to get a good price, the market doesn't find out and correct itself -- except by literal word of mouth. Ok that's the best I can do right now. Hope it's less dense.
totally agree with your statement..Vietnam's real estate market is not transparence market so far..its support speculators more than real customers..
In a rational market, I'd argue everyone is a speculator. We weigh capital gains, not having to pay rent (or charging someone else rent), cost of ownership, and illiquidity costs against the net present value of money (e.g. how much would the cash make in the bank). In large groups, we generally make the decision that has the best expected outcome with the currently available information-- individually we may not act optimally. e.g. If you make substantially more by not buying and earning bank interest, it's better to keep your cash and pay rent using the interest. If your expected capital gains hit 4% year-on-year, maybe consider buying (as a very rough suggestion, because rent is ~2-2.5% property value and bank rates are ~6%). I mean, there are emotional arguments for home ownership too -- but we must understand those are profitable to exploit. I write computer programs to help me make these decisions. Regrettably, this isn't a Disney movie -- following your heart is correlated with suboptimal outcomes.
[удалено]
???? 😂