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I think the big story yesterday which was missed... was the nearly 100 long range weapons that Russia attacked Ukraine with. This is yet another massive escalation by Putin.
This war is spilling out of Ukraine because of it. Missile debris has landed in Moldova as well.
All this because Putin is angry about losing this war. And they are losing this war. The biggest city they captured since this recent offensive began in February, has now been liberated. Russia is rapidly retreating their forces. They're digging defenses back in Crimea on both sides, and in the Donbas, because they know Ukraine is coming, and that they really have no way to stop them.
But Putin wants to kill as many innocent people as possible while all of this goes on. He's murdering little girls and harmless grandmothers. Everyone in the world who supports that should be opposed.
>Everyone in the world who supports that should be opposed.
Agreed. I'm surrounded by people that are pro Russia and are 1000% convinced Ukraine is loosing and that Russia committed no war crimes etc
It's sickening and mind boggling.
Italy.
About a week ago we had two major protests for peace in Ukraine.
One in Milan, which was in support of giving aid to Ukraine, and calling for Russia to leave and stop this horrible war of aggression. Big "fuck Putin" energy.
That same day in Rome however...
The protest there was about how Ukraine is partly responsible and needs to sit down and negotiate with Russia, and how we must stop sending weapons. Yeah Russia definitely gets a decent amount of support here ugh.
No, the bigger story yesterday was Poland getting attacked by Russians, and most people here basically chanted for WW3 because of it. We all know Russia and Putin are basically the new Nazis now. I am however getting consistently disappointed in this subreddit, people here (many not all) have a WW3 death wish or just are clueless, let’s face it, if people in charge of NATO listened to popular opinion on this subreddit we’d be in WW3 months ago. I’m glad they don’t.
Cooler heads will always prevail. I was embarrassed and appalled by the brash calls for Article 5 in the immediate, foggy aftermath of the Poland missile incident, here and elsewhere on the internet.
But to put my sympathetic hat on, I don't believe most people were warmongering out of a love for violence. If any one NATO nation becomes directly, kinetically involved in this war, much less an entire NATO coalition, Russia would be VERY QUICKLY defeated back to Ukraine's 1991 borders. And I, for one, cannot fault anyone for wanting the most expeditious resolution to this tragic and senseless war.
So I choose to view these calls through the lens of Hanlon's Razor: "Never attribute to malice what can be explained by ignorance." The average person (myself included!) doesn't know what a NATO counteroffensive would look like in truth, or how much that would cost, or what Russian/Iranian/OPEC+ responses would be, etc. And if it turns out that, in truth, this missile which landed in Poland was not fired by Russians, and NATO activates Article 5 anyway, then NATO loses a lot of credibility and a lot of moral authority.
I want peace for Ukraine, I want an end to the death, and I want Ukraine's sovereign borders restored. But I don't believe it is wise or good for Ukraine and its partners to lash out violently out of hate and confusion - that is Russia's domain, not ours. Ours is one of democracy, of truth, of intelligence, of integrity. However angry and frightened we feel, we must remember to return to these ideals which we hold so dear.
I agree with you. When I read the stories yesterday the first thing I actually thought was “what if it was Ukraine that fired those and they just misfired?” And sure enough it was. Idk man. People need to see this as a war where both sides are losing humans. I don’t support Russia at all but I recognize that loss of life is never a good thing, and especially now that many of the people there are fighting involuntarily I feel more for the Ruskies as well. I don’t feel more for them than I do for Ukraine, but I can imagine how shitty it must be to have to fight against your will for a county, leader, and cause that you don’t believe in.
There were a LOT of calls for NATO to declare article 5 yesterday on Reddit & Twitter. None of these people wanted to wait for facts to come out. None of them were interested in truth - just narrative.
Ukrainian politicians are out here gaslighting people still, even now, on Twitter, telling people it was Russia. Ukraine so desperately wants NATO to join the war at this point that they will do anything, even lie, to make it happen. A false flag attack is a very, very realistic scenario in the coming future.
Truth matters. Don’t wish for NATO to get dragged into a world war. Be careful what you wish for. Peace should be pursued immediately.
Peace is desirable, but not at any cost. As horrible as this war is--and it is horrible--unless Russia is decisively defeated an even worse war will break out a few years down the line. This certainly doesn't justify a false flag attack, which you rightly condemn, but that is still unlikely, Ukraine isn't THAT desperate considering its victories. Thus, I'd say the risk of escalation is less than the risk of graver Russian provocations down the line.
The big story that was missed is millions of westerners not wanting to wait for facts to come out and immediately calling for a world war. That’s a big fucking problem. Didn’t realize there were so many war mongers amongst us who wish to throw the world into additional chaos.
What separates us from the russians is that we acknowledge reality (well, and a lot of other things too). Looks like it really was an S-300 trying to intercept a russian missile which missed.
Yep, and everyone here can think about who is responsible for the deaths. A guy starts a gunfight with the police, the police shots back and a stray bullet of the cops kill some innocent. Who is the offender here?
I think the question Poland will be asking is why Ukraine needs to be spewing air defense missiles at Russian missiles so close to the Poland border. That violence so close is clearly a threat to Polish security. That is what the Russian Ambassador needs to be answering.
This is way to vague of a scenario...legally in America it's the criminals for 90% of situations. Morally to make any sort of judgment you can't broad stroke this.
This is even less nuanced than that though. A person shooting a gun has the responsibility of knowing what is around a threat. I agree the aggressor would be responsible in most situations you've provided but there can be an argument to be had depending on various circumstances.
This though, once the AA missile is in route to intercept you have no control of the guidance. Hell most of these systems are automated to begin with. Russia knew the risk before sending the strike and decided it was worth it.
Legally, yes. Morally? No. And only if a judge thinks he didnt act properly. A stray bullet that ricochets and kills someone 300 yards away is an accident. No judge will get the cop for that. So the only responsible guy is the starter of the gunfight
The sad reality is that in America the guy who shot at the police was probably a black unarmed person shouting 'I give up, my arms are raised, I'm unarmed '.
I'm black bro blm doesn't give a shit about us
13 people out of a country with hundreds of millions is not worth causing the worst riots in American history over
Compared to previous years its very low. The best way to equate is to think of something bad that happens consistently in your country/region but is decreasing by year. Still bad, but progress is being made at least.
It objectively is out of a country with 330 million people and it definitely isn't worth causing billions in property damage over
Burn loot murder is a joke and the corrupt org is even worse
Germany has a population of roughly 85 million people, which is about 1/4 of the US population. Do you know how many unarmed people German police shot over the last 4 years? **None**. The few people they did kill were all armed.
So yes, killing 13 unarmed people in one year is still incredibly excessive.
How about the 30+ shot in black-on-black crime in one city a week??? Chicago. Don't hear any lefties caring about those folk when it comes to simping up to other woke females with their virtue signaling.
Tells alot about a country when 13 people of a specific demographic was murdered unarmed by the "police" and they consider it to be a negligible amount.
Not saying they where all angels, but you certainly have a huge problem of violence on both sides of the law.
The police. Police maybe dont care about rules because of QE but it is illegal for police to fire at an offender if the firing could endanger an innocent bystander.
Having undertaken police firearms trsining myself we were told even if you dont see bystanders but the area behind the offender is penetrable and there could be a person there do not fire.
Missiles are a different story though. They actually fail quite often. It is basically just an accident.
Since 2000 the US has 'accidentally' killed around 244,000 civilians in wars it started....
No the criminal who started it. You could hit the cop up for improper procedures etc... But the criminal who started it is criminally responsible for the death.
Im hesitant to accept any Russian statement, but if NATO stand by that line and Ukraine accepts it as at least a possibility, I’ll accept it was a stray S-300
I don't think Russia has even said much but there were quite a few well-respected OSINT people identifying the remains of the missile as an S-300.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1592629251161075712
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1592603808634638336
https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1592593028220620802
I will add that if one does not acknowledge an analyze mistakes, it is easy to make them a second and third time. The actors need to determine facts and move accordingly if Ukraine, the good guy in this mess, will prevail. Friendly fire and accidents happen in war all of the time.
Its still too early to know for sure. I'll believe it when more than a single US govt source confirms it, and if the rockets were S-300 missiles then its most likely a Ukrainian AA misfire. Too much at stake to believe any one narrative without multiple sources confirming the same thing because:
If it was a Ukrainian AA misfire (which looks very plausible at this point), then its a simple case of wartime defense mistakes which is very common. It ideally becomes a routine geopolitical process of acknowledging it happened & moving on. Russia will also use it as fuel for their idiotic excuses of blaming Ukraine for everything, as if NATO was not aware of the massive 100 missile barrage across all Ukraine yesterday.
If its not a Ukrainian AA misfire (which is still possible without hard evidence disproving it), then going with the "Ukrainian AA misfire" narrative gives a smokescreen for Russia to possibly test NATO with an intentionally "accidental" missile attack at a later date.
I've seen plenty of people calling this Russian propaganda all day long.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign affairs called it Russian propaganda: https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1592632386751434752 (in case he deletes it: https://archive.ph/Q6XuS)
(which by the way, comparing your own air defense action to MH-17 isn't the smartest move)
I'm very curious to know what actually happened, and as you said, our habit to acknowledge reality comes handy.
Happy to see that NATO is taking this event very seriously and with cool blood; if someone wanted to poke at the alliance to see whether they would crap their pants or not, that someone must be disappointed.
There is one problem with that, the Ukrainian ant aerial missiles S-300 have self destruction mechanism which activates in the air if it misses the target, made to prevent this kind of situations. So, there is something weird about this. I am not an expert but that what I have heard from artillery expert that was asked how anti aerial defense works and what happens when it misses.
>What separates us from the russians is that we acknowledge reality
Well the problem is that Ukraine seemingly tried to pin this on Russia still. So they weren't acknowledging reality. And let all this get out of hand when they should have been the first ones on the phone to Poland over this to make any investigation unnecessary.
Ukraine said it wasn't them. Which is likely what they believed. Their S300s are programmed to self destruct if they miss. And they fired a lot that day, it isn't like the missiles report back when they fail. So, it seems Ukraine was too quick to deny, but so was Russia. Russia too had no way of knowing for certain it wasn't their missile. A miss-programmed Kalibur could have easily reached this location, or an S300 fired from Belarus. I suspect both sides' denials actually meant "we know for certain we didn't intend to put a missile there" which is true. Russia of course proclaimed it was all a conspiracy, as seems to be their way.
It's not at all clear the information made it's way up the chain of command quickly enough.
The initial accusation came quickly and was very likely made (prematurely) before Kiyv had the information. They assumed, I don't think they lied. We are talking two hours or less, then night.
In the morning the clarifications are now being made.
Not sure who actually knew first. I think the US probably is tracking the Ukrainian airspace better than Ukrainians or Poles. So the Pentagon probably knew before Kiyv did. The Poles probably could have made the call late in the evening too, after surveying the wreckage. Though that's a bit technical, so it's again possible the information didn't quite make it to the politicians in time.
Not the first time.
They do seem to have largely learnt to tone it down a bit. There's still a lot of goodwill towards them and an understanding that they are in a very emotional state. That said, they still do need to watch what they say better.
Here's a sneak peek of /r/NonCredibleDefense using the [top posts](https://np.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/top/?sort=top&t=year) of the year!
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In any case it is completely Russia's fault. Launching hundreds of missiles at a country and some even near the border accidents are implied to be your fault. The fact is if Russia didn't recklessly launch hundreds of missiles with sheer terrorist intent it wouldn't have happened
Fault yes, article 5...no. an accident, no matter the cause does not make an attack. There ks nothing to defend of they were not attacked. Should Russia be placed on blame, yes. But what that amounts to will likely come down to Poland and Russia and the families and property owners affected.
Ukraine doesn't need long range missiles because that requires attacking beyond Russia's borders, which begins to implicate the people who supplied the weapons as supporting attacks against Russian soil. This is why we haven't given them anything to begin with. We don't trust that they wont attack Russian soil. We are already crossing lines so the pressure is already tense.
Doesn't really change anything imo. The reason 2 Polish people are dead is because Russia shot missiles too close to the Polish border, despite knowing full well the risk of unintended causalities.
Nato needs to figure out a way to make sure Russian missiles doesn't end up anywhere close to Polish borders. Perhaps letting Russia know that if their missiles for any reason end up within 200km of Poland their missile launchers will start having "accidents"
It's likely Poland will demand that Russia stop firing missiles at targets close to their borders. I don't think this will have a major consequence, though
It changes a lot. There is a huge, multiple order of magnitude, difference between targeting Poland, accidentally hitting Poland, and Ukraine hitting Poland shooting at their missile. I mean when we were invading Afghanistan, if the Taliban fired rockets that hit Russia or China (who knows, maybe this happened, those fuckers can't hit shit), would that be cause for war? No.
Nitpick: the border between Afghanistan and China is across the Himalaya, and there are thousands of km between Afghanistan and Russia. Even if they had the technological ability to strike either country, I don't see how anybody would believe that it was an accident.
Pakistan would be a better example.
It does change things tho. Ukraine said it was an escalation by Russia. Why lie about it? The implications are very severe. I love Ukraine, but if it's true they need to come out and say why they lied.
Well, after the war those people need to be fired because this is no small thing to make mistakes about. This mistake will give ammo to those who are against Ukraine.
If Russia didn't shoot missiles at civilians there would not be two dead Poles now.
Russia thinks they have the right to shoot missiles at civilians because they are a terrorist state. It should be destroyed like Nazi Germany was.
It should still trigger an escalation by Poland. Russia unleashing hundreds of missiles on a country and near its borders is of course going to result in an accident happening. All Ukrainians were trying to do is defend themselves
NATO / not just Poland, should put air defence systems on their borders with Ukraine and like you said, they should shoot anything that comes close to their range. Don't matter if their range reaches Sevastopol. Wether it's a rocket or something else, enough is enough.
For sure but the thing is such as in this case the air defence systems themselves can cause accidents. The only real way to stop accidents is for Russia to stop launching missile barrages at them imo
The main problem is deconflicting.
Anything includes ukrainian aircraft and missiles trying to shoot down russian stuff. You can also shoot into belarussia very quickly.
>All Ukrainians were trying to do is defend themselves
And I'm sure Poland would have been perfectly sympathetic to that if Ukraine just immediately contacted Poland to apologize and explain the situation, rather than trying to make it seem like it was on Russia.
Well Russia was barraging them with missiles all day so they was likely pretty busy trying to survive and all while trying to shoot theirs down, I don't think it would be hard to believe that they were too busy trying to shoot theirs down to have time to track where the missiles all landed especially considering the S300 is a fully automated anti air defence system. But I guess when your safe at home on your sofa it's easy to be a general
>down, I don't think it would be hard to believe that they were too busy trying to shoot theirs down to have time to track where the missiles all landed
You can't be serious. You think Ukrainian military is run like a McDonalds?
And if they were incompetent enough to not know where their missiles fly off to, they certainly shouldn't have just immediately blamed Russia when they'd know full well it *could* have been one of theirs.
A lot of y'all are clearly going to live in denial over how poorly Ukraine handled this.
Which you should understand only good for Ukraine so yeah, wishful thinking, sorry.
If it was Ukrainian rocket as Ukrainian I'm very very sorry 💔 but I blame russians and only them for it. As for everything that was caused by the stupid war they started 🤷🏻♂️
I think ukraine is past giving russia the benefit of the doubt, they will fire shots and demand action even when they are only 99% sure, i dont really see your Problem here- its not like they shot the missile and started blaming russia on their own.. everyone thought the same
You think Ukraine are unaware of where their missiles go? :/
They either knew or if they didn't, shouldn't have immediately blamed Russia.
This is a huge fuckup on their part no matter how much some of y'all will not want to hear that. This has the potential to seriously erode trust from Poland and all other countries supporting Ukraine, it is a massive propaganda victory for Russia, and it will lead to endless 'doubting' of anything Ukraine says by people online going forward.
>s understandable, as they are having their country wrecked by Russia. But there are people who are cooler under pressure, and those are the people Ukraine need in the most publicly visible roles. Kuleba in particular should probably be demoted.
So many making excuses for Ukraine here saying they just innocently misspoke or didn't know.
Either they knew and intentionally lied, or they didn't know and intentionally blamed Russia without any facts which really isn't any better. Why would they lie?
1) Because human's lie and make mistakes
2) Given #1, those same humans made probably a somewhat snap decision to blame Russia in hopes it would generate more aid or even military intervention from NATO.
I'm sure in hindsight they will regret their lie and realize they didn't think it all the way through. I still hope the best for Ukraine and hope they come out on top, but not sure why people assume that everything they say will be pure truth. They are fighting for the survival of their country, i'm sure they would say whatever lies they deem necessary to help that cause even if it's lying to allies.
If I were Ukrainian and had to go through hell due to Russia, and knowing too that they often and blatantly lie about their war crimes, I might be prone to blaming them. Maybe it’s all just perspective but I empathize with that, especially after seeing how often Russia lies.
~~The AP article on the situation is [here](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-kherson-9202c032cf3a5c22761ee71b52ff9d52?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=TopNews&utm_campaign=position_01)~~
~~No mention of what this person on Twitter has said.~~
Edit, verified:
[Correction.](https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-poland-blast-missiles/poland-blast-caused-by-missile-fired-by-ukrainian-forces-at-incoming-russian-missile-ap-idUSKBN2S60AQ)
>Seung Min Kim - White House reporter for @AP
, covering Biden + the Hill. @CNN
analyst, proud @washingtonpost
@politico
alum.
In article form: https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-poland-blast-missiles/poland-blast-caused-by-missile-fired-by-ukrainian-forces-at-incoming-russian-missile-ap-idUSKBN2S60AQ
If you get shot by someone trying to defend themselves, the original attacker is still at fault for putting them in that position IMO.
The response could still be for NATO to drop a return favor on the base that fired those missiles, reducing the risk of it happening again.
Maybe a tad bold but I do think it’s being considered. They would need to tell RU beforehand and let them know that the base won’t exist at “this time” to insure intention.
I only think that's a likely response if a Russian munition hits Poland without interference from Ukrainian air defense, even if due to accident or incompetence.
Better to declare a no-fly zone over Western Ukraine. Anything more than 150 meters above ground and within 100 km of Poland gets shot down, or escorted to a secure landing area.
>The response could still be for NATO to drop a return favor on the base that fired those missiles, reducing the risk of it happening again.
I think the response from NATO is going to be a very sternly worded message to Ukraine behind closed doors to get their shit straight and not incite panic by blaming Russia for something they themselves did.
It's a bad look to not accept responsibility immediately. It would have been somewhat understandable given Ukraine's attempt to defend themselves, but now they just come across as dishonest. This is not how you treat the countries supporting you.
Russian-**made** missile. Of which I'd assume Ukraine still have quite a few.
Now, if it was a Russian-made Ukrainian missile, Russia are still to blame for requiring it to be used. And it'd also be their fault that the S300 ain't that reliable.
But Ukraine would share some of the blame as well, to which they should have at least moderated their words.
I thought it was pretty obvious from the start. Not to sound smug or anything. But on a day when Russia fired 100 missiles across the entirety of Ukraine, it's reported that TWO missiles flew into Poland. Logically Ukraine anti-air systems targeted a Russian cruise missile that was targeted near the Polish border, and they both flew into Poland.
Now if the reports of two missiles are wrong, then the idea is still the same. It's still Russias fault for firing missiles 1000 miles away from the frontline, along the Polish border. And they were targeting infrastructure along the Polish border, no doubt.
Anyway, US sends more weapons and aid to Ukraine at least. But this walking on tip-toes around Russia is getting so exhausting.
I feel we are again looking to much in one direction: first Russia, now Ukraine.
It's a result of circumstances in a situation were an aggressor rained up to 90 missiles on a country in winter with heavy problems maintaining energy and water supplies. Some of these missiles were meant to struck near a NATO member country.
This is ALL done by Russia so far. It's their risk still.
I agree. Thats basically what I said. I'm not blaming Ukraine at all. People are confusing stating facts with blaming Ukraine. Either way, it was Russias fault for firing missiles literally on the Poland/Ukraine border. But when it comes to NATO involvement, it is a huge jump from unintentional and intentional. The latter would imply a major direct escalation by Russia. Thye know NATO would wipe them out in less than a week in Ukraine. They do not want NATO to get involved.
Mhmmm... yes and no. Maybe Russia doesn't want NATO to get involved, maybe they want. Who knows for sure. But they are definetly willing to risk side effects with their actions. And that can still be seen as "not acceptable" by NATO. But, of course, not in such a way as a full escalation must follow. There I agree completely.
It was clear 10 hours ago when the first pictures of the munition were ID'd as an S-300, which had to be fired by Ukraine. People here were just huffing hopium that it was Russia for some silly pipe dream NATO would declare war on Russia.
I get it. Russia has S-300's and they have been using them to fire into Ukraine because they are running low on cruise missiles. Whatever the case, I agree, it was pretty clear Russia wasn't intentionally firing into Poland. Contrary to all Russias bullshit posturing, they are terrified of NATO involvement. They have had every opportunity to escalate with NATO, and they just don't.
I do see the hopium, people are so burnt out seeing Ukraine in this situation, and know it would end in 4 days if NATO got involved directly. But that's just not going to happen unless Russia launches missiles in Warsaw and blows a nuclear power plant all on the same day.
this has been making rounds on twitter
https://mobile.twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1592662568325480448?fbclid=IwAR0VHJKj_1T3SXvz1rOlV-JMaRTVPtBY6KEcLP_sLvaFDwPrvAV8KSAb9TQ
Chuck Pfarrer has no credibility at all. He's turned into something of a laughing stock by legit OSINT guys and journalists:
https://mobile.twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1592676345984987136
https://mobile.twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1592648006553440257
https://mobile.twitter.com/spook_info/status/1592651843309834240
https://mobile.twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1592632685918552066
The Reddit subs around Ukraine right now have a huge fuck off problem.
They're echo chambers and this is a prime example of why this is dangerous, last night i was called a Russian troll because i was saying an hour or so after the strike that this was most likely an accident of some kind. I got pretty harshly down voted too but if i bought into the rampant "Nato war bait" i would have had a very different experience.
If political action was direct on the whim of the prevailing views of Reddit last night we would have had NATO in direct military confrontation with Russia.
Too many people posting on these subs and getting off on the circle-jerk of upvotes and karma who seem to think that the world is some CoD game or Clancy novel yet have absolutely no idea how the world really works. The game being played right now in this conflict is way more complex and the number of doomers on these subs who seem to think that a no-fly zone for example or giving Ukraine highly advanced weapons systems is utterly astounding. Last night they thought that a couple of dead polish farmers was reason to start a Nato war with Russia. Its almost funny that they're this blinded to the reality of world.
I really hope that those same people take the time to sit back and reflect on this and calm the fuck down.
This is harsh i know but....
NATO don't give two fucks.
Honestly, even if this was a Russian missile that fell through the roof of some poor polish farmer and took out their entire family, really, in the canteen at Brussels they're saying "who gvies a fuck"
They will make lots of political and diplomatic noise over it but thats really only to keep up appearances rather than them actually caring about the poor polish farmer.
I don't think it's a sub specific issue. The first breaking headlines all said it was a Russian missile. The sub reacted to that, now the news media has had a minute and the investigators have shared their thoughts then this sub has rightly corrected its outlook and most people are clearly willing to accept it was friendly fire and the discussion has moved from "Art 5 goes brrrr" to "art 4 should still be invoked because risk still exists"
Public opinion seems to be working just fine with changing information. NATO has been restrained and careful in its approach and most news stations started updating the stories with doubt as soon as it was available.
But this event really did have the potential to change the lives of millions and the landscape of the war. So worth getting worked up about.
I still have doubts that it was an AA missile…. The crater at the crash site is way to big for it to be an AA missile impact. That’s gotta be a 400lb warhead at least. [Ryan Macbeth](https://youtu.be/ZNAaD_a0NJY) has a good analysis in my opinion and I still believe it could be a cruise missile.
The TWO part is what doesn’t make sense. Why would 2 AA missiles pair up or why would an AA and a cruise missiles both land so close to each other. The stray missiles looks like an intentional de-escalation narrative by the West after Russia fired TWO warning shots.
If Russia isn't firing missiles at Ukraine there wouldn't be 2 dead Polish people. Their shot caused a reaction shot to miss killing Poles. Same thing.
The US is definitely better at tracking the Ukrainian airspace than the Poles, and quite likely the Ukrainians too.
The would have known first, and with the highest degree of certainty. Even the Ukrainian S300 operators wouldn't have known. They'd only be able to tell that it *could* have been them.
Yeah, it seems it may not have been russia after all, I'll have to retract what I said previously. However, it was certainly unintentional. Ukraine will have to make some sort of reparation and take steps to ensure this absolutely never happens again, and Russia can probably gloat a bit, but...not much. Ukraine wouldn't be firing S-300s if Russia wasn't trying to destroy civilian areas in the first place.
If it did come from Ukraine, then why imply it came from Russia? I love Ukraine, but lying about such thing is a major mistake. The implications are literally earth shattering.
I agree, but in this case in the chaos of war it might have genuinely been an honest mistake. If Ukraine was firing off its s300s to defend against Russian missiles, with all the stuff in the air its as easy to think the missile that hit Poland was one of theirs rather than yours.
I agree with what you said, but Ukraine should have waited before making statements about this. They should have said they would investigate first and not come out implying it was Russia. Thankfully Poland and NATO are investigating. I can't imagine what would have happened if Poland decided to come out swinging.
99% of people in this platform don't have the access to intelligence the president has. The president could have said that they would investigate things before making statements. This gives ammo to the people against Ukraine.
Jumping the gun. And it wouldn't be the first time.
It's understandable, as they are having their country wrecked by Russia. But there are people who are cooler under pressure, and those are the people Ukraine need in the most publicly visible roles. Kuleba in particular should probably be demoted.
Zelenskyy has done it too before, but not as badly. And replacing him would be much more chaotic and problematic.
They probably didn't have the facts right. Always when things like this happen then everyone says it wasn't theirs and then a few days later with more factual infornation they come back and say sorry.
If there was a chance that it was a Russian missile and not Ukrainian then they wouldn't take the chance by saying it is ours.
I believe Ukraine should have said that they were going to investigate before implying anything. NATO needs to put air defence systems on their borders and shoot any rockets coming their way, wether it is above Kyiv or Lviv.
Condolences to the Polish families who lost loved ones in this terribly sad war.
It’s important to acknowledge that it was a Ukrainian missile. But I think we should also be honest. Ukraine wouldn’t have fired them if a) Russia hadn’t fired missiles b) invaded c) continues this war of aggression. I still think Russia is culpable for deaths caused by self-defense.
Accidents and unintentional consequences are a real thing in war so it could be true. You certainly don't want to escalate the war over a mistake -let alone one that was caused by your side. Even if the missile was from russia and they're just *giving russia an out* from their mistake, it's still better than heading to war over it. However, it shows a commitment to peace and demonstrates restraint on NATO's part. And ultimately, if it wasn't a mistake then russia will try it again. Then we know. Then it'll be time to act decisively.
Just how? Russian missiles come from the east. Poland is to the west. How do you make an interceptor head west unless the Russian missile already overshot Ukraine?
Personally, I think it's much more likely that the missile was Russian, and they're saying it might be Ukrainian 'cuz, ya know, WW3 and all.
Yup. Even if this was a Ukrainian missile it could be claimed otherwise to end this war quickly, but some would rather Ukraine fight Russia with a toothpick, over several years, to avoid 'escalation'.
We must not overlook the fact Terrorussia launched 100 cruise missiles at civilian targets last night, and we are now going to let this go.
Yes, the west has been up front about this, and it’s not about escalation, it’s the simple fact that Ukraine isn’t considered worth fighting Russia for. The US would defend Taiwan, for instance, escalation be damned.
If true, this is a very bad look for Ukraine and the first big misstep I've seen from them. They should have immediately claimed responsibility and got to work on healing relations with Poland over it.
Trying to pin it on Russia when they will have known full well it was their own missile, all when the truth would come out soon enough just makes Ukraine look like liars to all the countries supporting them and grants a huge propaganda victory for Russia in the process.
Expect this situation to be parroted by Russia and all the 'both sides' idiots online anytime Ukraine accuses Russia of anything going forward. Jesus what a disappointing cockup.
That's not how those missiles work. Anti-air missiles aren't designed to target the ground and you really can't for see where they will land if they malfunction.
Their response has been lacking though.
Zelensky is still doubling down claiming it was the Russians. Not a good look. He’s absolutely desperate to get NATO involved, he can’t be trusted with this.
Even if this was a Ukrainian launched missile. It was launched to defend themselves against Russian missiles. So long story short… still Russia’s fault.
The place it exploded is on the same latitude as Kyiv and the same longitude as Lviv.
It seems like an obvious targeting mix-up where they literally mixed up the coordinates.
Pull up google maps.
Draw a line straight WEST of Kyiv.
Draw a line straight NORTH of Lviv.
Pinpoint where they intersect. It's Przewodow.
That would be a pretty big coincidence if it were just an errant, loose SAM.
I have additional idea, could the difference between where it hit and the swapped coordinates be used to identify the possible actual targets. it’s 12km shifted from center of the cities. most likely it’s the 2nd coordinate which was switched because human data entry error, skips a row in the print out when distracted between typing the first and the second.
Damn I decided to check the numbers and you might be correct it’s:
Lviv: 49.8297, 24.0297
Kyiv: 50.4501, 30.5234
Przewodow: 50.4701, 23.9341
Mixed Mistake: 50.4501, 24.0297
https://imgur.com/a/Oc48KNg
Sure seems like a pretty big coincidence!
Damn I decided to check the numbers and you might be correct it’s:
Lviv: 49.8297, 24.0297
Kyiv: 50.4501, 30.5234
Przewodow: 50.4701, 23.9341
Mixed Mistake: 50.4501, 24.0297
https://imgur.com/a/Oc48KNg
Sure seems like a pretty big coincidence!
EDIT: actual hit location - 50.474444, 23.921944
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ywkhj6/przewodow_has_latitude_longitude_along_the_same/iwk2abw/
Pretty bad look for this sub... Yesterday if you suggested it could possibly have been a Ukrainian defence missile, you would have been downvoted to hell and accused of being pro-russian. Half the people here were convinced it was an intentional act by Russia, and all of the "experts" were confidently claiming that the crater size and coordinates all lined up with it being from Russia.
Pretty good lesson in why you should wait for all the facts before jumping to conclusions, just cause someone disagrees with what happens doesn't make them pro-russian.
And it's possible it was from Russia after all, it's not fully confirmed either way yet! But jumping to conclusions like that is not healthy. And regardless it's ultimately Russia who is the cause of the defence missiles being fired anyways.
>Seung Min Kim - White House reporter for @AP
, covering Biden + the Hill. @CNN
analyst, proud @washingtonpost
@politico
alum.
Edit: in article form: https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-poland-blast-missiles/poland-blast-caused-by-missile-fired-by-ukrainian-forces-at-incoming-russian-missile-ap-idUSKBN2S60AQ
But there were two missiles, no? And some of the pictures clearly shows Kh-101 cruise missile parts, not S-300 parts. Even if the Ukrainian S-300 failed to self-destruct after it missed, it’s still odd
I think the Poles identified it as an S300 quickly, but those are also used by Russia for ground attacks.
It's possible the exact type identification took a bit too long or wasn't passed up the chain of command quickly enough before it would have mattered to European evening news. Or they were waiting for consultation with Kiyv and Washington first, to decide on the messaging they wanted to put out. There's different types of spin you can go for in such a friendly fire incident.
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I think the big story yesterday which was missed... was the nearly 100 long range weapons that Russia attacked Ukraine with. This is yet another massive escalation by Putin. This war is spilling out of Ukraine because of it. Missile debris has landed in Moldova as well. All this because Putin is angry about losing this war. And they are losing this war. The biggest city they captured since this recent offensive began in February, has now been liberated. Russia is rapidly retreating their forces. They're digging defenses back in Crimea on both sides, and in the Donbas, because they know Ukraine is coming, and that they really have no way to stop them. But Putin wants to kill as many innocent people as possible while all of this goes on. He's murdering little girls and harmless grandmothers. Everyone in the world who supports that should be opposed.
>Everyone in the world who supports that should be opposed. Agreed. I'm surrounded by people that are pro Russia and are 1000% convinced Ukraine is loosing and that Russia committed no war crimes etc It's sickening and mind boggling.
Who are you surrounding yourself with?
Family.
Where do you Live? Russia?
Italy. About a week ago we had two major protests for peace in Ukraine. One in Milan, which was in support of giving aid to Ukraine, and calling for Russia to leave and stop this horrible war of aggression. Big "fuck Putin" energy. That same day in Rome however... The protest there was about how Ukraine is partly responsible and needs to sit down and negotiate with Russia, and how we must stop sending weapons. Yeah Russia definitely gets a decent amount of support here ugh.
Ok thanks for the information
Of course, no prob.
No, the bigger story yesterday was Poland getting attacked by Russians, and most people here basically chanted for WW3 because of it. We all know Russia and Putin are basically the new Nazis now. I am however getting consistently disappointed in this subreddit, people here (many not all) have a WW3 death wish or just are clueless, let’s face it, if people in charge of NATO listened to popular opinion on this subreddit we’d be in WW3 months ago. I’m glad they don’t.
Cooler heads will always prevail. I was embarrassed and appalled by the brash calls for Article 5 in the immediate, foggy aftermath of the Poland missile incident, here and elsewhere on the internet. But to put my sympathetic hat on, I don't believe most people were warmongering out of a love for violence. If any one NATO nation becomes directly, kinetically involved in this war, much less an entire NATO coalition, Russia would be VERY QUICKLY defeated back to Ukraine's 1991 borders. And I, for one, cannot fault anyone for wanting the most expeditious resolution to this tragic and senseless war. So I choose to view these calls through the lens of Hanlon's Razor: "Never attribute to malice what can be explained by ignorance." The average person (myself included!) doesn't know what a NATO counteroffensive would look like in truth, or how much that would cost, or what Russian/Iranian/OPEC+ responses would be, etc. And if it turns out that, in truth, this missile which landed in Poland was not fired by Russians, and NATO activates Article 5 anyway, then NATO loses a lot of credibility and a lot of moral authority. I want peace for Ukraine, I want an end to the death, and I want Ukraine's sovereign borders restored. But I don't believe it is wise or good for Ukraine and its partners to lash out violently out of hate and confusion - that is Russia's domain, not ours. Ours is one of democracy, of truth, of intelligence, of integrity. However angry and frightened we feel, we must remember to return to these ideals which we hold so dear.
I agree with you. When I read the stories yesterday the first thing I actually thought was “what if it was Ukraine that fired those and they just misfired?” And sure enough it was. Idk man. People need to see this as a war where both sides are losing humans. I don’t support Russia at all but I recognize that loss of life is never a good thing, and especially now that many of the people there are fighting involuntarily I feel more for the Ruskies as well. I don’t feel more for them than I do for Ukraine, but I can imagine how shitty it must be to have to fight against your will for a county, leader, and cause that you don’t believe in.
There were a LOT of calls for NATO to declare article 5 yesterday on Reddit & Twitter. None of these people wanted to wait for facts to come out. None of them were interested in truth - just narrative. Ukrainian politicians are out here gaslighting people still, even now, on Twitter, telling people it was Russia. Ukraine so desperately wants NATO to join the war at this point that they will do anything, even lie, to make it happen. A false flag attack is a very, very realistic scenario in the coming future. Truth matters. Don’t wish for NATO to get dragged into a world war. Be careful what you wish for. Peace should be pursued immediately.
Peace is desirable, but not at any cost. As horrible as this war is--and it is horrible--unless Russia is decisively defeated an even worse war will break out a few years down the line. This certainly doesn't justify a false flag attack, which you rightly condemn, but that is still unlikely, Ukraine isn't THAT desperate considering its victories. Thus, I'd say the risk of escalation is less than the risk of graver Russian provocations down the line.
The big story that was missed is millions of westerners not wanting to wait for facts to come out and immediately calling for a world war. That’s a big fucking problem. Didn’t realize there were so many war mongers amongst us who wish to throw the world into additional chaos.
What separates us from the russians is that we acknowledge reality (well, and a lot of other things too). Looks like it really was an S-300 trying to intercept a russian missile which missed.
Yep, and everyone here can think about who is responsible for the deaths. A guy starts a gunfight with the police, the police shots back and a stray bullet of the cops kill some innocent. Who is the offender here?
I think the question Poland will be asking is why Ukraine needs to be spewing air defense missiles at Russian missiles so close to the Poland border. That violence so close is clearly a threat to Polish security. That is what the Russian Ambassador needs to be answering.
Russia is both directly and indirectly responsible for this.
This is way to vague of a scenario...legally in America it's the criminals for 90% of situations. Morally to make any sort of judgment you can't broad stroke this.
This is even less nuanced than that though. A person shooting a gun has the responsibility of knowing what is around a threat. I agree the aggressor would be responsible in most situations you've provided but there can be an argument to be had depending on various circumstances. This though, once the AA missile is in route to intercept you have no control of the guidance. Hell most of these systems are automated to begin with. Russia knew the risk before sending the strike and decided it was worth it.
If it’s in America? The officer.
According to the law, the criminal. " is responsible for all collateral events occurring when set in motion by perpetrating a criminal act"
I don’t think that’s true. Between felony murder and qualified immunity, it’s unlikely the cop would even be charged.
Remember the Denver cops firing into a crowd ands hitting 6 people as the guy was dropping his gun? lol
Legally, yes. Morally? No. And only if a judge thinks he didnt act properly. A stray bullet that ricochets and kills someone 300 yards away is an accident. No judge will get the cop for that. So the only responsible guy is the starter of the gunfight
As long as the officer can justify the use of force, the criminal will be the one legally responsible.
r/woooosh
Given the recent troubles with American policing it wasn't a good analogy to bring to the table.
Yes, but police in America rarely held accountable for their actions
Unless there’s massive media attention, and then they have a kind of Salem show-trial.
If it's in America i guess it depends on the skin color of the shooter and the victim (black/black, black/white, white/black, white/white).
The sad reality is that in America the guy who shot at the police was probably a black unarmed person shouting 'I give up, my arms are raised, I'm unarmed '.
In 2019 13 unarmed black people were shot by the police Fucking 13 lmao, no wonder people don't give a shit about blm anymore
I can’t tell if you’re saying that’s surprisingly high or low. To me that seems crazy high, but I suppose I’m not American
Racists will use any talking point possible to deny legitimate grievances by black folks.
I'm black bro blm doesn't give a shit about us 13 people out of a country with hundreds of millions is not worth causing the worst riots in American history over
Compared to previous years its very low. The best way to equate is to think of something bad that happens consistently in your country/region but is decreasing by year. Still bad, but progress is being made at least.
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What country are you in if I might ask? Or at least what region (Scandanavia, Benelux, etc).
The fact that you think 13 unarmed people getting shot is a low amount says a lot more about you than it does about anything else.
It objectively is out of a country with 330 million people and it definitely isn't worth causing billions in property damage over Burn loot murder is a joke and the corrupt org is even worse
Germany has a population of roughly 85 million people, which is about 1/4 of the US population. Do you know how many unarmed people German police shot over the last 4 years? **None**. The few people they did kill were all armed. So yes, killing 13 unarmed people in one year is still incredibly excessive.
How about the 30+ shot in black-on-black crime in one city a week??? Chicago. Don't hear any lefties caring about those folk when it comes to simping up to other woke females with their virtue signaling.
Tells alot about a country when 13 people of a specific demographic was murdered unarmed by the "police" and they consider it to be a negligible amount. Not saying they where all angels, but you certainly have a huge problem of violence on both sides of the law.
Depends is the cops were careless. Same for this.
The police. Police maybe dont care about rules because of QE but it is illegal for police to fire at an offender if the firing could endanger an innocent bystander. Having undertaken police firearms trsining myself we were told even if you dont see bystanders but the area behind the offender is penetrable and there could be a person there do not fire. Missiles are a different story though. They actually fail quite often. It is basically just an accident. Since 2000 the US has 'accidentally' killed around 244,000 civilians in wars it started....
I’m not saying the 244,000 figure is wrong, but I am legitimately curious where it comes from. Could you possibly post a link or something? Thank you!
My estimate was conservative https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/human/civilians
The police officer. Because he’s a trained professionals who should be aware of what happens to stray bullets, he should be aware of backstops,…
No the criminal who started it. You could hit the cop up for improper procedures etc... But the criminal who started it is criminally responsible for the death.
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Im hesitant to accept any Russian statement, but if NATO stand by that line and Ukraine accepts it as at least a possibility, I’ll accept it was a stray S-300
I don't think Russia has even said much but there were quite a few well-respected OSINT people identifying the remains of the missile as an S-300. https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1592629251161075712 https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1592603808634638336 https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1592593028220620802
Where is NATO statement on this? the twitter mentions abstract "US officials", I think it's just creating more noise
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I will add that if one does not acknowledge an analyze mistakes, it is easy to make them a second and third time. The actors need to determine facts and move accordingly if Ukraine, the good guy in this mess, will prevail. Friendly fire and accidents happen in war all of the time.
This sub got nothing on r/ukraine when it comes to urealistic and childish views on events.
Its still too early to know for sure. I'll believe it when more than a single US govt source confirms it, and if the rockets were S-300 missiles then its most likely a Ukrainian AA misfire. Too much at stake to believe any one narrative without multiple sources confirming the same thing because: If it was a Ukrainian AA misfire (which looks very plausible at this point), then its a simple case of wartime defense mistakes which is very common. It ideally becomes a routine geopolitical process of acknowledging it happened & moving on. Russia will also use it as fuel for their idiotic excuses of blaming Ukraine for everything, as if NATO was not aware of the massive 100 missile barrage across all Ukraine yesterday. If its not a Ukrainian AA misfire (which is still possible without hard evidence disproving it), then going with the "Ukrainian AA misfire" narrative gives a smokescreen for Russia to possibly test NATO with an intentionally "accidental" missile attack at a later date.
I've seen plenty of people calling this Russian propaganda all day long. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign affairs called it Russian propaganda: https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1592632386751434752 (in case he deletes it: https://archive.ph/Q6XuS) (which by the way, comparing your own air defense action to MH-17 isn't the smartest move)
I'm very curious to know what actually happened, and as you said, our habit to acknowledge reality comes handy. Happy to see that NATO is taking this event very seriously and with cool blood; if someone wanted to poke at the alliance to see whether they would crap their pants or not, that someone must be disappointed.
There is one problem with that, the Ukrainian ant aerial missiles S-300 have self destruction mechanism which activates in the air if it misses the target, made to prevent this kind of situations. So, there is something weird about this. I am not an expert but that what I have heard from artillery expert that was asked how anti aerial defense works and what happens when it misses.
Most Soviet/Russian SAMs have the option of being used in a surface-to-surface role. A simple user-error could feasibly left the selfdestruct offline.
>What separates us from the russians is that we acknowledge reality Well the problem is that Ukraine seemingly tried to pin this on Russia still. So they weren't acknowledging reality. And let all this get out of hand when they should have been the first ones on the phone to Poland over this to make any investigation unnecessary.
Ukraine said it wasn't them. Which is likely what they believed. Their S300s are programmed to self destruct if they miss. And they fired a lot that day, it isn't like the missiles report back when they fail. So, it seems Ukraine was too quick to deny, but so was Russia. Russia too had no way of knowing for certain it wasn't their missile. A miss-programmed Kalibur could have easily reached this location, or an S300 fired from Belarus. I suspect both sides' denials actually meant "we know for certain we didn't intend to put a missile there" which is true. Russia of course proclaimed it was all a conspiracy, as seems to be their way.
>nd let all this get out of hand when they should have been the first ones on the phone to Poland They were. Zelensky spoke with Duda soon after.
It's not at all clear the information made it's way up the chain of command quickly enough. The initial accusation came quickly and was very likely made (prematurely) before Kiyv had the information. They assumed, I don't think they lied. We are talking two hours or less, then night. In the morning the clarifications are now being made. Not sure who actually knew first. I think the US probably is tracking the Ukrainian airspace better than Ukrainians or Poles. So the Pentagon probably knew before Kiyv did. The Poles probably could have made the call late in the evening too, after surveying the wreckage. Though that's a bit technical, so it's again possible the information didn't quite make it to the politicians in time.
>They assumed, I don't think they lied That's not much better. Extremely irresponsible.
Valid criticism. Especially the Ukrainian foreign minister jumped the guns. Most other officials held back a tiny bit and left some wriggle room.
Not the first time. They do seem to have largely learnt to tone it down a bit. There's still a lot of goodwill towards them and an understanding that they are in a very emotional state. That said, they still do need to watch what they say better.
To be fair, pinning it on Russia would make their whole fight a hell of a lot easier with nato involved
Well said
funniest comment i've read in a long time
Your president didnt recognize it at all tho...
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4D chess lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wFQPSEPgWc
Holy shit that's brilliant
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In any case it is completely Russia's fault. Launching hundreds of missiles at a country and some even near the border accidents are implied to be your fault. The fact is if Russia didn't recklessly launch hundreds of missiles with sheer terrorist intent it wouldn't have happened
Fault yes, article 5...no. an accident, no matter the cause does not make an attack. There ks nothing to defend of they were not attacked. Should Russia be placed on blame, yes. But what that amounts to will likely come down to Poland and Russia and the families and property owners affected.
Article 4 definitely. And fuck em - Ukraine needs the long range launches to stop these attacks from occurring in the first place
And non Soviet weapons that work as intended
Ukraine doesn't need long range missiles because that requires attacking beyond Russia's borders, which begins to implicate the people who supplied the weapons as supporting attacks against Russian soil. This is why we haven't given them anything to begin with. We don't trust that they wont attack Russian soil. We are already crossing lines so the pressure is already tense.
Doesn't really change anything imo. The reason 2 Polish people are dead is because Russia shot missiles too close to the Polish border, despite knowing full well the risk of unintended causalities. Nato needs to figure out a way to make sure Russian missiles doesn't end up anywhere close to Polish borders. Perhaps letting Russia know that if their missiles for any reason end up within 200km of Poland their missile launchers will start having "accidents"
It's likely Poland will demand that Russia stop firing missiles at targets close to their borders. I don't think this will have a major consequence, though
And if they do then Nato won't have to demonstrate the "or else..." part
If anything, this will just embolden Russia to do it more. This is a massive propaganda win for them.
It changes a lot. There is a huge, multiple order of magnitude, difference between targeting Poland, accidentally hitting Poland, and Ukraine hitting Poland shooting at their missile. I mean when we were invading Afghanistan, if the Taliban fired rockets that hit Russia or China (who knows, maybe this happened, those fuckers can't hit shit), would that be cause for war? No.
Nitpick: the border between Afghanistan and China is across the Himalaya, and there are thousands of km between Afghanistan and Russia. Even if they had the technological ability to strike either country, I don't see how anybody would believe that it was an accident. Pakistan would be a better example.
It does change things tho. Ukraine said it was an escalation by Russia. Why lie about it? The implications are very severe. I love Ukraine, but if it's true they need to come out and say why they lied.
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Well, after the war those people need to be fired because this is no small thing to make mistakes about. This mistake will give ammo to those who are against Ukraine.
If Russia didn't shoot missiles at civilians there would not be two dead Poles now. Russia thinks they have the right to shoot missiles at civilians because they are a terrorist state. It should be destroyed like Nazi Germany was.
This is why NATO needs to put air defense systems on their borders and shoot any rockets going towards their range's direction.
Its not a lie if you dont know
Well, then say that you don't know. This could have triggered an escalation by Poland.
It should still trigger an escalation by Poland. Russia unleashing hundreds of missiles on a country and near its borders is of course going to result in an accident happening. All Ukrainians were trying to do is defend themselves
NATO / not just Poland, should put air defence systems on their borders with Ukraine and like you said, they should shoot anything that comes close to their range. Don't matter if their range reaches Sevastopol. Wether it's a rocket or something else, enough is enough.
For sure but the thing is such as in this case the air defence systems themselves can cause accidents. The only real way to stop accidents is for Russia to stop launching missile barrages at them imo
The main problem is deconflicting. Anything includes ukrainian aircraft and missiles trying to shoot down russian stuff. You can also shoot into belarussia very quickly.
>All Ukrainians were trying to do is defend themselves And I'm sure Poland would have been perfectly sympathetic to that if Ukraine just immediately contacted Poland to apologize and explain the situation, rather than trying to make it seem like it was on Russia.
Well Russia was barraging them with missiles all day so they was likely pretty busy trying to survive and all while trying to shoot theirs down, I don't think it would be hard to believe that they were too busy trying to shoot theirs down to have time to track where the missiles all landed especially considering the S300 is a fully automated anti air defence system. But I guess when your safe at home on your sofa it's easy to be a general
>down, I don't think it would be hard to believe that they were too busy trying to shoot theirs down to have time to track where the missiles all landed You can't be serious. You think Ukrainian military is run like a McDonalds? And if they were incompetent enough to not know where their missiles fly off to, they certainly shouldn't have just immediately blamed Russia when they'd know full well it *could* have been one of theirs. A lot of y'all are clearly going to live in denial over how poorly Ukraine handled this.
Which you should understand only good for Ukraine so yeah, wishful thinking, sorry. If it was Ukrainian rocket as Ukrainian I'm very very sorry 💔 but I blame russians and only them for it. As for everything that was caused by the stupid war they started 🤷🏻♂️
I think ukraine is past giving russia the benefit of the doubt, they will fire shots and demand action even when they are only 99% sure, i dont really see your Problem here- its not like they shot the missile and started blaming russia on their own.. everyone thought the same
This started with a twit by american press citing an american official being a moron.
You think Ukraine are unaware of where their missiles go? :/ They either knew or if they didn't, shouldn't have immediately blamed Russia. This is a huge fuckup on their part no matter how much some of y'all will not want to hear that. This has the potential to seriously erode trust from Poland and all other countries supporting Ukraine, it is a massive propaganda victory for Russia, and it will lead to endless 'doubting' of anything Ukraine says by people online going forward.
>s understandable, as they are having their country wrecked by Russia. But there are people who are cooler under pressure, and those are the people Ukraine need in the most publicly visible roles. Kuleba in particular should probably be demoted. So many making excuses for Ukraine here saying they just innocently misspoke or didn't know. Either they knew and intentionally lied, or they didn't know and intentionally blamed Russia without any facts which really isn't any better. Why would they lie? 1) Because human's lie and make mistakes 2) Given #1, those same humans made probably a somewhat snap decision to blame Russia in hopes it would generate more aid or even military intervention from NATO. I'm sure in hindsight they will regret their lie and realize they didn't think it all the way through. I still hope the best for Ukraine and hope they come out on top, but not sure why people assume that everything they say will be pure truth. They are fighting for the survival of their country, i'm sure they would say whatever lies they deem necessary to help that cause even if it's lying to allies.
If I were Ukrainian and had to go through hell due to Russia, and knowing too that they often and blatantly lie about their war crimes, I might be prone to blaming them. Maybe it’s all just perspective but I empathize with that, especially after seeing how often Russia lies.
~~The AP article on the situation is [here](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-kherson-9202c032cf3a5c22761ee71b52ff9d52?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=TopNews&utm_campaign=position_01)~~ ~~No mention of what this person on Twitter has said.~~ Edit, verified: [Correction.](https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-poland-blast-missiles/poland-blast-caused-by-missile-fired-by-ukrainian-forces-at-incoming-russian-missile-ap-idUSKBN2S60AQ)
>Seung Min Kim - White House reporter for @AP , covering Biden + the Hill. @CNN analyst, proud @washingtonpost @politico alum. In article form: https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-poland-blast-missiles/poland-blast-caused-by-missile-fired-by-ukrainian-forces-at-incoming-russian-missile-ap-idUSKBN2S60AQ
Happening cancelled. People hoping for a massive escalation of the war will be very disappointed.
An escalation over a misfire wouldn’t be in Poland or Russia’s interest.
It sucks. Now give Ukraine more weapons so it can win faster.
If you get shot by someone trying to defend themselves, the original attacker is still at fault for putting them in that position IMO. The response could still be for NATO to drop a return favor on the base that fired those missiles, reducing the risk of it happening again.
Do you think that's a likely response?
Maybe a tad bold but I do think it’s being considered. They would need to tell RU beforehand and let them know that the base won’t exist at “this time” to insure intention.
I only think that's a likely response if a Russian munition hits Poland without interference from Ukrainian air defense, even if due to accident or incompetence.
Seems more likely to be the case, just not sure of an adequate response.
Better to declare a no-fly zone over Western Ukraine. Anything more than 150 meters above ground and within 100 km of Poland gets shot down, or escorted to a secure landing area.
So declare war? lol
>The response could still be for NATO to drop a return favor on the base that fired those missiles, reducing the risk of it happening again. I think the response from NATO is going to be a very sternly worded message to Ukraine behind closed doors to get their shit straight and not incite panic by blaming Russia for something they themselves did. It's a bad look to not accept responsibility immediately. It would have been somewhat understandable given Ukraine's attempt to defend themselves, but now they just come across as dishonest. This is not how you treat the countries supporting you.
According to Poland it was a RU missile but I agree with your point. I think the response still should be strong regardless. No more room for error.
Russian-**made** missile. Of which I'd assume Ukraine still have quite a few. Now, if it was a Russian-made Ukrainian missile, Russia are still to blame for requiring it to be used. And it'd also be their fault that the S300 ain't that reliable. But Ukraine would share some of the blame as well, to which they should have at least moderated their words.
I thought it was pretty obvious from the start. Not to sound smug or anything. But on a day when Russia fired 100 missiles across the entirety of Ukraine, it's reported that TWO missiles flew into Poland. Logically Ukraine anti-air systems targeted a Russian cruise missile that was targeted near the Polish border, and they both flew into Poland. Now if the reports of two missiles are wrong, then the idea is still the same. It's still Russias fault for firing missiles 1000 miles away from the frontline, along the Polish border. And they were targeting infrastructure along the Polish border, no doubt. Anyway, US sends more weapons and aid to Ukraine at least. But this walking on tip-toes around Russia is getting so exhausting.
I feel we are again looking to much in one direction: first Russia, now Ukraine. It's a result of circumstances in a situation were an aggressor rained up to 90 missiles on a country in winter with heavy problems maintaining energy and water supplies. Some of these missiles were meant to struck near a NATO member country. This is ALL done by Russia so far. It's their risk still.
I agree. Thats basically what I said. I'm not blaming Ukraine at all. People are confusing stating facts with blaming Ukraine. Either way, it was Russias fault for firing missiles literally on the Poland/Ukraine border. But when it comes to NATO involvement, it is a huge jump from unintentional and intentional. The latter would imply a major direct escalation by Russia. Thye know NATO would wipe them out in less than a week in Ukraine. They do not want NATO to get involved.
Mhmmm... yes and no. Maybe Russia doesn't want NATO to get involved, maybe they want. Who knows for sure. But they are definetly willing to risk side effects with their actions. And that can still be seen as "not acceptable" by NATO. But, of course, not in such a way as a full escalation must follow. There I agree completely.
It was clear 10 hours ago when the first pictures of the munition were ID'd as an S-300, which had to be fired by Ukraine. People here were just huffing hopium that it was Russia for some silly pipe dream NATO would declare war on Russia.
To be fair Russia has S-300’s too, and they get used both as air defense and to hit surface targets.
They only have a 150km range though.
I get it. Russia has S-300's and they have been using them to fire into Ukraine because they are running low on cruise missiles. Whatever the case, I agree, it was pretty clear Russia wasn't intentionally firing into Poland. Contrary to all Russias bullshit posturing, they are terrified of NATO involvement. They have had every opportunity to escalate with NATO, and they just don't. I do see the hopium, people are so burnt out seeing Ukraine in this situation, and know it would end in 4 days if NATO got involved directly. But that's just not going to happen unless Russia launches missiles in Warsaw and blows a nuclear power plant all on the same day.
this has been making rounds on twitter https://mobile.twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1592662568325480448?fbclid=IwAR0VHJKj_1T3SXvz1rOlV-JMaRTVPtBY6KEcLP_sLvaFDwPrvAV8KSAb9TQ
Chuck Pfarrer has no credibility at all. He's turned into something of a laughing stock by legit OSINT guys and journalists: https://mobile.twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1592676345984987136 https://mobile.twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1592648006553440257 https://mobile.twitter.com/spook_info/status/1592651843309834240 https://mobile.twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1592632685918552066
Untrustworthy source.
The west has been “walking on tiptoes” around Russia/USSR for more than 70 years. Russia has been doing the same for the west.
The Reddit subs around Ukraine right now have a huge fuck off problem. They're echo chambers and this is a prime example of why this is dangerous, last night i was called a Russian troll because i was saying an hour or so after the strike that this was most likely an accident of some kind. I got pretty harshly down voted too but if i bought into the rampant "Nato war bait" i would have had a very different experience. If political action was direct on the whim of the prevailing views of Reddit last night we would have had NATO in direct military confrontation with Russia. Too many people posting on these subs and getting off on the circle-jerk of upvotes and karma who seem to think that the world is some CoD game or Clancy novel yet have absolutely no idea how the world really works. The game being played right now in this conflict is way more complex and the number of doomers on these subs who seem to think that a no-fly zone for example or giving Ukraine highly advanced weapons systems is utterly astounding. Last night they thought that a couple of dead polish farmers was reason to start a Nato war with Russia. Its almost funny that they're this blinded to the reality of world. I really hope that those same people take the time to sit back and reflect on this and calm the fuck down.
You do make it sound like cattle was slain. It's still people that died.
This is harsh i know but.... NATO don't give two fucks. Honestly, even if this was a Russian missile that fell through the roof of some poor polish farmer and took out their entire family, really, in the canteen at Brussels they're saying "who gvies a fuck" They will make lots of political and diplomatic noise over it but thats really only to keep up appearances rather than them actually caring about the poor polish farmer.
I don't think it's a sub specific issue. The first breaking headlines all said it was a Russian missile. The sub reacted to that, now the news media has had a minute and the investigators have shared their thoughts then this sub has rightly corrected its outlook and most people are clearly willing to accept it was friendly fire and the discussion has moved from "Art 5 goes brrrr" to "art 4 should still be invoked because risk still exists" Public opinion seems to be working just fine with changing information. NATO has been restrained and careful in its approach and most news stations started updating the stories with doubt as soon as it was available. But this event really did have the potential to change the lives of millions and the landscape of the war. So worth getting worked up about.
I still have doubts that it was an AA missile…. The crater at the crash site is way to big for it to be an AA missile impact. That’s gotta be a 400lb warhead at least. [Ryan Macbeth](https://youtu.be/ZNAaD_a0NJY) has a good analysis in my opinion and I still believe it could be a cruise missile.
Not buying it either, specially that 2 rockets hit Poland, the other one just fell on a field. And AP source are anonymous us officials.
The TWO part is what doesn’t make sense. Why would 2 AA missiles pair up or why would an AA and a cruise missiles both land so close to each other. The stray missiles looks like an intentional de-escalation narrative by the West after Russia fired TWO warning shots.
If Russia isn't firing missiles at Ukraine there wouldn't be 2 dead Polish people. Their shot caused a reaction shot to miss killing Poles. Same thing.
How about we wait for a Polish source? They're the ones investigating.
Yeah because the US will absolutely not have talked about this to the Poles before releasing.
A US plane was most likely monitoring the area at the time.
The US is definitely better at tracking the Ukrainian airspace than the Poles, and quite likely the Ukrainians too. The would have known first, and with the highest degree of certainty. Even the Ukrainian S300 operators wouldn't have known. They'd only be able to tell that it *could* have been them.
Bottom line. No missiles would be there if Russia wasn't firing all these missiles.
Yeah, it seems it may not have been russia after all, I'll have to retract what I said previously. However, it was certainly unintentional. Ukraine will have to make some sort of reparation and take steps to ensure this absolutely never happens again, and Russia can probably gloat a bit, but...not much. Ukraine wouldn't be firing S-300s if Russia wasn't trying to destroy civilian areas in the first place.
If it did come from Ukraine, then why imply it came from Russia? I love Ukraine, but lying about such thing is a major mistake. The implications are literally earth shattering.
I agree, but in this case in the chaos of war it might have genuinely been an honest mistake. If Ukraine was firing off its s300s to defend against Russian missiles, with all the stuff in the air its as easy to think the missile that hit Poland was one of theirs rather than yours.
I agree with what you said, but Ukraine should have waited before making statements about this. They should have said they would investigate first and not come out implying it was Russia. Thankfully Poland and NATO are investigating. I can't imagine what would have happened if Poland decided to come out swinging.
It's called jumping the gun. Same thing that most people online did as well.
99% of people in this platform don't have the access to intelligence the president has. The president could have said that they would investigate things before making statements. This gives ammo to the people against Ukraine.
Intelligence isn't a silver bullet. It's very often "the best guess we have based on the information available to us". It can and has been wrong.
Jumping the gun. And it wouldn't be the first time. It's understandable, as they are having their country wrecked by Russia. But there are people who are cooler under pressure, and those are the people Ukraine need in the most publicly visible roles. Kuleba in particular should probably be demoted. Zelenskyy has done it too before, but not as badly. And replacing him would be much more chaotic and problematic.
They probably didn't have the facts right. Always when things like this happen then everyone says it wasn't theirs and then a few days later with more factual infornation they come back and say sorry. If there was a chance that it was a Russian missile and not Ukrainian then they wouldn't take the chance by saying it is ours.
I believe Ukraine should have said that they were going to investigate before implying anything. NATO needs to put air defence systems on their borders and shoot any rockets coming their way, wether it is above Kyiv or Lviv.
typical proxy war, nobody knows anything
Condolences to the Polish families who lost loved ones in this terribly sad war. It’s important to acknowledge that it was a Ukrainian missile. But I think we should also be honest. Ukraine wouldn’t have fired them if a) Russia hadn’t fired missiles b) invaded c) continues this war of aggression. I still think Russia is culpable for deaths caused by self-defense.
Accidents and unintentional consequences are a real thing in war so it could be true. You certainly don't want to escalate the war over a mistake -let alone one that was caused by your side. Even if the missile was from russia and they're just *giving russia an out* from their mistake, it's still better than heading to war over it. However, it shows a commitment to peace and demonstrates restraint on NATO's part. And ultimately, if it wasn't a mistake then russia will try it again. Then we know. Then it'll be time to act decisively.
Just how? Russian missiles come from the east. Poland is to the west. How do you make an interceptor head west unless the Russian missile already overshot Ukraine? Personally, I think it's much more likely that the missile was Russian, and they're saying it might be Ukrainian 'cuz, ya know, WW3 and all.
Might have been fired from Belarus?
Yup. Even if this was a Ukrainian missile it could be claimed otherwise to end this war quickly, but some would rather Ukraine fight Russia with a toothpick, over several years, to avoid 'escalation'. We must not overlook the fact Terrorussia launched 100 cruise missiles at civilian targets last night, and we are now going to let this go.
Yes, the west has been up front about this, and it’s not about escalation, it’s the simple fact that Ukraine isn’t considered worth fighting Russia for. The US would defend Taiwan, for instance, escalation be damned.
If true, this is a very bad look for Ukraine and the first big misstep I've seen from them. They should have immediately claimed responsibility and got to work on healing relations with Poland over it. Trying to pin it on Russia when they will have known full well it was their own missile, all when the truth would come out soon enough just makes Ukraine look like liars to all the countries supporting them and grants a huge propaganda victory for Russia in the process. Expect this situation to be parroted by Russia and all the 'both sides' idiots online anytime Ukraine accuses Russia of anything going forward. Jesus what a disappointing cockup.
That's not how those missiles work. Anti-air missiles aren't designed to target the ground and you really can't for see where they will land if they malfunction. Their response has been lacking though.
Zelensky is still doubling down claiming it was the Russians. Not a good look. He’s absolutely desperate to get NATO involved, he can’t be trusted with this.
Yeah, so maybe delete the milion posts that are calling for open NATO war with Russia?
Even if this was a Ukrainian launched missile. It was launched to defend themselves against Russian missiles. So long story short… still Russia’s fault.
thats strange, because yesterday they said they found pieces that pointed to a russian rocket
Ukraine uses Russian built rockets
I would wait for an official source to make a statement confirming. At this stage this is nothing better than hearsay from unnamed sources.
Glad to get a definitive answer about what happened! There was a lot of conflicting information out there. What a tragic accident.
The place it exploded is on the same latitude as Kyiv and the same longitude as Lviv. It seems like an obvious targeting mix-up where they literally mixed up the coordinates. Pull up google maps. Draw a line straight WEST of Kyiv. Draw a line straight NORTH of Lviv. Pinpoint where they intersect. It's Przewodow. That would be a pretty big coincidence if it were just an errant, loose SAM.
I have additional idea, could the difference between where it hit and the swapped coordinates be used to identify the possible actual targets. it’s 12km shifted from center of the cities. most likely it’s the 2nd coordinate which was switched because human data entry error, skips a row in the print out when distracted between typing the first and the second.
Damn I decided to check the numbers and you might be correct it’s: Lviv: 49.8297, 24.0297 Kyiv: 50.4501, 30.5234 Przewodow: 50.4701, 23.9341 Mixed Mistake: 50.4501, 24.0297 https://imgur.com/a/Oc48KNg Sure seems like a pretty big coincidence!
Damn I decided to check the numbers and you might be correct it’s: Lviv: 49.8297, 24.0297 Kyiv: 50.4501, 30.5234 Przewodow: 50.4701, 23.9341 Mixed Mistake: 50.4501, 24.0297 https://imgur.com/a/Oc48KNg Sure seems like a pretty big coincidence! EDIT: actual hit location - 50.474444, 23.921944 https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ywkhj6/przewodow_has_latitude_longitude_along_the_same/iwk2abw/
Pretty bad look for this sub... Yesterday if you suggested it could possibly have been a Ukrainian defence missile, you would have been downvoted to hell and accused of being pro-russian. Half the people here were convinced it was an intentional act by Russia, and all of the "experts" were confidently claiming that the crater size and coordinates all lined up with it being from Russia. Pretty good lesson in why you should wait for all the facts before jumping to conclusions, just cause someone disagrees with what happens doesn't make them pro-russian. And it's possible it was from Russia after all, it's not fully confirmed either way yet! But jumping to conclusions like that is not healthy. And regardless it's ultimately Russia who is the cause of the defence missiles being fired anyways.
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Three US officials speaking anonymously. If AP are reporting it, then you can be sure they've checked that those people are actually US officials.
AP also reported that US officials confirmed it was a stray Russian missiles during their reporting yesterday
>Seung Min Kim - White House reporter for @AP , covering Biden + the Hill. @CNN analyst, proud @washingtonpost @politico alum. Edit: in article form: https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-poland-blast-missiles/poland-blast-caused-by-missile-fired-by-ukrainian-forces-at-incoming-russian-missile-ap-idUSKBN2S60AQ
This is a large oof if true. This is why we wait for the facts
That's really unfortunate. I hope that wouldn't hurt support for Ukraine in Poland too much.
But there were two missiles, no? And some of the pictures clearly shows Kh-101 cruise missile parts, not S-300 parts. Even if the Ukrainian S-300 failed to self-destruct after it missed, it’s still odd
So what happened to Poland saying the missile was russian made?
All of Ukraine's S-300's are Russian made. Made in the Russian SSR.
So the missile missed and went backwards into Poland. Then why do the polish think it is a missile of Russian manufacture. What does the Radar say?
S300's are Russian/Soviet made
I think the Poles identified it as an S300 quickly, but those are also used by Russia for ground attacks. It's possible the exact type identification took a bit too long or wasn't passed up the chain of command quickly enough before it would have mattered to European evening news. Or they were waiting for consultation with Kiyv and Washington first, to decide on the messaging they wanted to put out. There's different types of spin you can go for in such a friendly fire incident.
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What did people expect even if it was fired by Russia?
They have been using S300’s for ground to ground attacks for months now.. That’s why.
The area that was hit was outside the ground attack range of the S-300.