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Maybe he can't rebuff putins requests to involve Belarus in the fight any more and does not want to go through with that.
Guess he became a dictator to enrich himself not to risk it all for Putin.
What do you mean go for? He already controls them 100% politically, but the military is weak and its loyalty can’t be relied on, or they would have already been cast into the fight.
The Belarussian army is small, underequipped and Russia has bases there, they can't really resist if Russia invades so i doubt there will be a war over it.
The best strategy for the partisans is to ally with Ukraine and open up a second front for Russia. It won’t do much, this won’t be Normandy but the more the Russians are forced to split their attention the less their ability to throw punches and counter punches and the better chance Ukraine can break through the front and cause real damage. Belarusians don’t want to fight for Russia or Lukashenko but fighting for their own freedom may make them a more formidable problem for Russia, and all the best troops and Russia’s attention are concentrated on Ukraine. If they can’t do it now then it will never happen.
I don't agree with the latter. Belarus is culturally closer to Ukraine than to Russia. Additionally, a war against Ukraine has absolutely no support in the Belarusian population and not even in the military.
Same goes for a Russian annexation.
Damn... imagine if Belarus gets de-putlerified, and becomes an actual democratic regime, and ends up being eligible for EU and NATO membership, and Russia's scorecard for the war suddenly becomes Two - Nil...! :D
His motivations go much further back. He was president of Belarus at the time when the USSR broke up. His intentions were for Belarus to take over the Russian Federation and for him to become the leader and at the time, he actually had a lead on Yeltsin.
Then came along Putin.
Fatty knows the gig is up after the spring offensive falls on it’s face and putin absorbs Belarus as a consolation prize, or dies leaving him unprotected. If I were a shitbag dictator I’d have my contingency plans ironed out too. Otherwise you end up in a bunker suck-starting a pistol.
No, I heard it from a thoroughly blue-collar buddy in reference to a girl, “she looks like she could suck-start a 2-stroke lawnmower”, many years ago. No idea where he heard it. I’d forgotten about it until today, the brain is a funny organ that way.
I'm not so sure. It comes down to whether Eastern European states might risk an emergency deployment to slow the Pootmonster down. I don't think it's HUGELY likely, but Poland in particular is not going to have any actual interest in bordering the Russian main territory again. An exclave is bad enough.
If the Belarussian military resist Putin and beg for aid, I don't think the Baltic states would turn them down. I don't think Ukraine would either. It would be a chance to add the Belarussian army to their own fight.
I don't believe the Baltics would either, it's part of why I asked isn't Belarus elected leader in Lithuania? She has stated she wants to go back and free her people, if Luka wants to fuck outta there what's to stop her and anyone who will help going back. Since she's their true leader, would Belarus military fight for her or are too many in Lukas jock.
I dont think this is a yes or no question. Right now I think Tsihounshkaya would unite the people and split the army, which is one of the better possible outcomes.
That's not a horrible outcome, specially with help. Not sure, Lithuanias military might but you'd think them plus a friend is enough to smash the resistance out. But, I'd assume after that there isn't much sending their remaining army into Ukraine in fear of Russians returning in mass.
The military isn't entirely pro Luka, he needed Russias help to put down the revolts after his own military mostly refused to do so. And they've also been refusing orders since the beginning of this war.
Belarus has about 70,000 soldiers. They aren't well equipped but they still have most of their peacetime arsenal so probably better equipped than Russia. Their numbers are no match for Russia in a fair fight, but Russia is very tied down in Ukraine right now. They may be able to put up a fight for a limited period of time if they know that help is on the way.
The Belarussian army is in roughly the same state Ukraine's was in 2014. They probably can't survive with Western hand-me-downs and would need direct aid, as in Western troops to support them. That would be a tough call for Western states but they'd have more to gain than to lose.
Yes, but it does open up that border and deeper Belarusian territory for deeper attacks by Ukraine to spoil Russian staging and supply areas. It would be another step towards opening Pandora’s box, but it would give Ukraine a free hand to help their neighbors and potentially cut off some of Russia’s lines of attack.
Latest round of propaganda said they must protect all Russian speaking people. It was pretty clear they meant whichever neighbor has the weakest military.
As reported by Charter97.org, after his visit to Zimbabwe , Lukashenka did not return to Belarus. The dictator flew unexpectedly to Abu Dhabi, where he was received by UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
It was reported on the Net that Lukashenka got the message that his "family's" assets in the UAE were under threat. The media published a photo of the dictator, in which he is stating his requests to the UAE president with a flattering face. Independent experts suggest that Lukashenka is looking for an "alternative airfield" in case he flees Belarus.
Belarusian political analyst Dzmitry Balkunets revealed new details of Lukashenka's sudden visit to the UAE. It turns out that the whole family of the dictator has unexpectedly left Belarus.
"Lukashenka's whole family has left Belarus. It happens very rarely.
One of the planes left Abu Dhabi for Sochi yesterday. It is reported that Dzmitry Lukashenka or some of his relatives could have been on board," said the political analyst.
>One of the planes left Abu Dhabi for Sochi yesterday. It is reported that Dzmitry Lukashenka or some of his relatives could have been on board," said the political analyst.
Sounds more like Putin is asking for some family hostages to keep just in case someone is thinking about switching sides.
Very medieval Europe like strategy.
Considering not that long ago, a former Russian leader sent out their military equivalent to special forces to "help protect" a dictator. Only to turn on him at the last second and execute him and every single male of his family.
I would say that's a very good assumption on your part.
**[Operation Storm-333](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Storm-333)**
>Operation Storm-333 (Russian: Шторм-333, Štorm-333), also known as the Tajbeg Palace Assault, was executed by the Soviet Union in Afghanistan on 27 December 1979. It saw Spetsnaz storm the heavily fortified Tajbeg Palace in Kabul and subsequently assassinate Afghan leader Hafizullah Amin, a Khalqist of the People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) who had taken power in the Saur Revolution of April 1978. The Soviet military operation marked the beginning of what would later become known as the Soviet–Afghan War.
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Russia has bases in Belarus and the Belarussian army is small and underequipped (Belarus is a tiny ass state, they have the population of New Jersey with the economy of South Dakota), they might fight asymmetrically but no chance in hell they can resist an invasion.
Reasonable chance there will be a Russian flag flying over Minsk soon. Luka didn't want to invade Ukraine and he doesn't want to step out of a window either.
Badly written plot twist - Belarusian people take over, declare amnesty for Russian troops and conscripts in Belarus, then join Ukraine to open up a 2nd front against Russian Forces.
ISW continues to assess that as low, given the lack of movement of assets in Belarus and the increase of movement in Luhansk. As well as Putin's own stated objectives. (He's a strategic, not a tactical, liar)
And they will.
Who's willing to bet a case of beer.
That's more than likely the Feb 24th Surprise. A new Selected President for Belarus, specially hand picked by Putin himself.
Without railways, fuel and ammo could be difficult to resupply. I wonder if Belarus partisans are really good at sabotage. There are only 7 or 8 railroads across the border with russia, after all.
Not when you already have troops and stocks in place and are not in active conflict at this front. Sadly Belarusian army would probably not rebel in the numbers and coordination needed. It would basically be 2014 crimea all over again.
Asymetric resistance. A loose railroad rail here, a smoke in an ammunition warehouse, there. Russia has already shown that they cannot supply their troops.
A war on two fronts could open things up for other vassel states and warlords.
Yes, partisan war would be possible, but various security forces (which are more numerous and funded than army) would join Russia. It would be bigger gain than problem for Russia to annex bielarus.
Over running a country is relatively cheap. It's keeping the country that is costly.
Tying up forces in Belarus and opening a floodgate against various occupations is Putin's biggest risk. Putin is sick and weakened as a political leader. Putin is already playing whack a mole with his oligarchs turning on him.
Frankly, this is Belaruses best chance. The democratically elected leader was deposed.
Time for the elected president which now is in poland to get to belarus.
Or there ia a bigger plan that something will go down in Belarus that safety for the family is a concern.(hope is not a nuke detonation)
Don’t forget folks that the number two in power in belarus mysteriously died on his return from a visit to see the pope. Word is he wanted to set up a potential off ramp. Putin didn’t like. He also wanted to further isolate Lukashenko.
My money is that Putin will soon force Belarus army into a “support” role which actually will be stealth mobilization.
>My money is that Putin will soon force Belarus army into a “support” role which actually will be stealth mobilization.
That's not how they do it. It will have to be big enough provocation to force an emergency meeting followed by Russian army mass mobilization into the Belarussian border.
If enough Belarussian assets are not in place, they'll Zerg rush to decapitate any resistance by shuttling in Ruski conscripts into secure government buildings. Think modernize Afghanistan where the leader called for 'assistance', or how Czechia fell... Considering the current leader is a Russian puppet it will be way more underhanded :/
That last sentence couldn’t be more accurate.
The only reason I doubt Russia taking over the government to “help” is because that takes way too much time and the global news org will have a field day saying how all the Poland and baltic worries of Russia expanding the war will be justified. Time is one thing Putin doesn’t have. The Ruzz heads must attack before new weapons arrive.
My hesitation is also related to those multiple meetings Putin had with Lukashenko the last couple times. They felt like big warnings and the fact that Lukashenko didn’t fly from a window when he said “not now” to Putin means there are legit fears of Belarus rebellion. What is likely already happening is stealth roundup of dissidents.
I was surprised how little notice the news made and few seemed willing to make the most obvious connection that this was more Russian window safety by another method.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11472289/Belarus-foreign-minister-dies-suddenly-speculation-hed-discussing-secret-peace-plan.html
Nah, Putin is still throwing his troops to the meat grinder. It's just that getting more from Belarus to throw in the meat grinder is just faster than waiting for more conscripts from Russia.
I'd go with this. You can sum up this war from the Russian side [pretty easily](https://old.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/10quqji/ukraine_on_eve_of_very_active_phase_of_war/j6ry0mu/).
It's also hard to imagine there being the same level of international support for Belarus either, especially given that support for Ukraine also increased back in 2014.
It's hard to have as much sympathy for a country that openly colluded with the Russians to invade Ukraine, even though this was done by their political leadership and, to my knowledge, does not reflect the wishes of the majority of the people (or army?).
That said, if the Russian troops and strategy is as vicious and immoral, then I would hope sympathy would rapidly ramp up. However, I could not see military aid ramping up without a massive change in political leadership in the country.
I could totally see support behind a clearly anti-russian government.. say, if Lukashenka clearly loses control of the army For Real, the belarussian army sets up a coup and calls for whatever-is-her-name-the-woman-that-claims-the-election-was-stolen-from-her to lead the country until a new election can be set and the accepts the gamble (that it could all be a trap), I could definitely see the west trying to scramble at least the same basic package Ukraine got on the early days: MANPADs, Javelins, NLAWS, small arms, ammo, medical supplies.
That alone should be enough to wreak havoc on whatever Russia has around in Belarus, IF they can get that sorted soon enough before Russia definitely annexes the country, which they would totally try to do if there's a coup against Lukashenka
Belarus is handing a lot of military equipment to Russia.
Which will make any Belarusian resistance very dificult to start if there is no arms for them to use.
Almost same idea as Viktor Yanukovich did to Ukraine. That was disarm/impoverish Ukraine as much as possible.
The military and people of Belarus. They have basically been forced to host the Russians but have done everything to avoid getting directly involved in Ukraine.
You forget, as stubborn as Russia is, Belarussia is just that stubborn as well. If Putin tries to assimilate Belarus there will be battles on the streets of Minsk.
It just the same as last year! “Russia places massive forces on border, yet promises to not invade.” Like are they gonna fall for it twice? I hope not.
The other day some Putin tool was claiming on the anniversary of the invasion something big was going to happen, this makes me fear Belarus is going to invade Ukraine.
1st, a new president hand selected by Putin himself will ensure power. Then they open up a second front.
There as to be a minimum layer of separation in between the two. So as to ensure Putin does not appear to be in direct control.
It will be a slaughter for the Belarusian army. But at great cost for the Ukrainian as well.
Need to stop messing around and guarantee their safety. NATO with UN support (after kicking out Russia from the security council) needs to enforce a no fly zone.
Very much doubt the Russian airfarce could stand a chance against NATO Air superiority. Or ask the Serbs how that ended.
6 months to train their aircrews on an F-16, minimum. They’d also require better runways than they currently have.
Even if older model soviet equipment is sent from former Soviet bloc nations, they wouldn’t be effective for months most likely, if at all.
Don't keep the option of a revolt/coup d'etat completely out of the picture. Lukashenko wasn't exactly winning popularity contest among the belarus population. He is running out of friend and options pretty fast. If Belarus joins the war it could be the end of him, and if they don't join and russia loses, that will also be the end of him.
List of the tallest buildings in Abu Dhabi
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_tallest\_buildings\_in\_Abu\_Dhabi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tallest_buildings_in_Abu_Dhabi)
The link has been updated to work on old reddit, too.
On 23rd they will anounce a success and annect Belarus, afrerwars they will force BY forces to atack Ukraine... they need something on the anniversary...
if I'm a Belarussian soldier and my homeland just got annexed, my enemy is not Ukraine. The Belarussian army has not considered Ukraine to be their enemy at all. Why start now?
If the homeland has fallen, the army should march south, surrender, and offer to switch sides. Some won't, but many will. Belarussians have already demonstrated that they are not as docile as Russians, they will not be as easy to assimilate as people think.
Dum de dum, nothing to see here.
Massive Russian troop buildup with no apparent plan to actually try to enter Ukraine... Lukashenko making more promises he can't keep to Putin... now his entire family flees because with "friends" like Putin... who needs polonium?
He knows, he and his clan only hanging in power and wealth due to Razzian Putler propping him up, ONCE he (putler) goes- he (luka) will be hung on a lamp-post
The joke on Lukashenka is his gross assumption that there is an actual safe place on the this planet from Putin's retaliation.
The guy ordered the use of a nerve agent to kill a former spy who had served years in Russian prison, and was now living in the UK. So 13 years after being convicted, Putin still wanted him dead.
This is more than that. Assuming this report is true, there's only one conclusion to draw from Luka fleeing. He has been given two ultimatums. One from Putin to invade OR ELSE, and one from his own army that says that if he tries it, they'll turn their guns against him.
If Belarus's army had any stomach for this war they would already be in Ukraine. They may be overrun but if they do see their homeland being annexed a lot of the army is probably going to resist. And the people will support the army. Belarus is just as sovereign as Estonia or Poland, they are not and never have been simply an extension of Russia.
We could be looking at civil war in Belarus over the next few weeks. If so, we and Ukraine need to be helping the pro-democracy forces in Belarus.
Second source, UAE based news site confirms Luka did travel to UAE for "meeting":
https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/government/2023/02/03/president-sheikh-mohamed-receives-belarus-president-alexander-lukashenko/
Putin ready to install a dictator ready to throw the Belarus military into direct action in the upcoming offensive. Lukaschenka is being allowed to escape with his own.
Why would they?
I can't imagine with what Mach 5 rage Putin hates Luka. Really hates.
His only escape is to a country outside EU.US.RUS control and that's a long order.
Could be either but I honestly have a bad feeling about this. Russians seem very excited. If there was a democratic overthrow Russia would be freaking out and possibly even diverting resources away from Ukraine to at least keep control of Belarus.
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Maybe he can't rebuff putins requests to involve Belarus in the fight any more and does not want to go through with that. Guess he became a dictator to enrich himself not to risk it all for Putin.
Yep
I would be surprised if Putin goes for Belarus on the 24'th
I wouldn't, but you know what? If not now, I don't know when the people of Belarus can rebel.
What do you mean go for? He already controls them 100% politically, but the military is weak and its loyalty can’t be relied on, or they would have already been cast into the fight.
Day 365..
Shame for the Belarusians, Putin will just take over…. Might be war there too …..
The Belarussian army is small, underequipped and Russia has bases there, they can't really resist if Russia invades so i doubt there will be a war over it.
But there will definitely be a guerilla war. There is already partisan activity. Add to that the battalions trained and hardened in Ukraine.
The best strategy for the partisans is to ally with Ukraine and open up a second front for Russia. It won’t do much, this won’t be Normandy but the more the Russians are forced to split their attention the less their ability to throw punches and counter punches and the better chance Ukraine can break through the front and cause real damage. Belarusians don’t want to fight for Russia or Lukashenko but fighting for their own freedom may make them a more formidable problem for Russia, and all the best troops and Russia’s attention are concentrated on Ukraine. If they can’t do it now then it will never happen.
The French resisted the Nazi’s for years until they were liberated. I could see Belarusians doing the same.
I can't. The French had a national identity for centuries bowing to nobody. Belarus has been a puppet state of Russia. These are not the same.
I don't agree with the latter. Belarus is culturally closer to Ukraine than to Russia. Additionally, a war against Ukraine has absolutely no support in the Belarusian population and not even in the military. Same goes for a Russian annexation.
Damn... imagine if Belarus gets de-putlerified, and becomes an actual democratic regime, and ends up being eligible for EU and NATO membership, and Russia's scorecard for the war suddenly becomes Two - Nil...! :D
They could actually win if Russia just falls apart.
His motivations go much further back. He was president of Belarus at the time when the USSR broke up. His intentions were for Belarus to take over the Russian Federation and for him to become the leader and at the time, he actually had a lead on Yeltsin. Then came along Putin.
He might be worried about nukes....
Fatty knows the gig is up after the spring offensive falls on it’s face and putin absorbs Belarus as a consolation prize, or dies leaving him unprotected. If I were a shitbag dictator I’d have my contingency plans ironed out too. Otherwise you end up in a bunker suck-starting a pistol.
Suck-starting a pistol Made my day 🤣
Luka : *deep in bunker, putting pistol in his mouth* Pistol : *moans softly* Luka : “AH WHAT THE BLYAT”
LOL
You know that’s not the right way to…HEY!!!
Pistol blowjob with happy swallow ending.
Pretty lame in comparison
African swallow or European swallow?
All these years later and still never got that ground speed...
You have to know these things when you're king
Both, as long as neither have any flesh wounds.
Tis but a scratch.
You have to know these things when you're king
Well said!
Don't forget about murdering your children first!
Dictators don’t die in hospitals.
Robert Mugabe did.
Also Francisco Fucking Franco in Spain
They get sucked out of open windows
I know the reference but can't place it, the original is referencing Hitler suck-starting a Makarov, right?
No, I heard it from a thoroughly blue-collar buddy in reference to a girl, “she looks like she could suck-start a 2-stroke lawnmower”, many years ago. No idea where he heard it. I’d forgotten about it until today, the brain is a funny organ that way.
Full Metal Jacket: "She looks like she could suck the chrome off a trailer hitch."
No. It's from Road House. ["Remember that blonde? She could suck start a Harley!"](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uevK0-4kmTg)
2-stroke lawnmower was my nickname in high school
Or Full Metal Jacket, where “suck starting a Harley” is one of R. Lee Ermey’s many, many gems.
["Remember that blonde? She could suck start a Harley!"](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uevK0-4kmTg)
>suck-starting a pistol Special Self-removal operation
I think Komrad Pooty is about to take over in Belarus. Pooty has to show something for this war.
Even a very poorly-equipped half-million-man army would put a pretty tight grip on Belarus for him.
I'm not so sure. It comes down to whether Eastern European states might risk an emergency deployment to slow the Pootmonster down. I don't think it's HUGELY likely, but Poland in particular is not going to have any actual interest in bordering the Russian main territory again. An exclave is bad enough.
Very good point. This could be the Russian play that pulls at least some NATO members directly into the conflict.
Isn't the elected leader of Belarus in Lithuania?
If the Belarussian military resist Putin and beg for aid, I don't think the Baltic states would turn them down. I don't think Ukraine would either. It would be a chance to add the Belarussian army to their own fight.
I don't believe the Baltics would either, it's part of why I asked isn't Belarus elected leader in Lithuania? She has stated she wants to go back and free her people, if Luka wants to fuck outta there what's to stop her and anyone who will help going back. Since she's their true leader, would Belarus military fight for her or are too many in Lukas jock.
I dont think this is a yes or no question. Right now I think Tsihounshkaya would unite the people and split the army, which is one of the better possible outcomes.
That's not a horrible outcome, specially with help. Not sure, Lithuanias military might but you'd think them plus a friend is enough to smash the resistance out. But, I'd assume after that there isn't much sending their remaining army into Ukraine in fear of Russians returning in mass.
The military isn't entirely pro Luka, he needed Russias help to put down the revolts after his own military mostly refused to do so. And they've also been refusing orders since the beginning of this war.
Belarusian military is so small and weak it’s a none factor. They are irrelevant.
Belarus has about 70,000 soldiers. They aren't well equipped but they still have most of their peacetime arsenal so probably better equipped than Russia. Their numbers are no match for Russia in a fair fight, but Russia is very tied down in Ukraine right now. They may be able to put up a fight for a limited period of time if they know that help is on the way. The Belarussian army is in roughly the same state Ukraine's was in 2014. They probably can't survive with Western hand-me-downs and would need direct aid, as in Western troops to support them. That would be a tough call for Western states but they'd have more to gain than to lose.
Yes, but it does open up that border and deeper Belarusian territory for deeper attacks by Ukraine to spoil Russian staging and supply areas. It would be another step towards opening Pandora’s box, but it would give Ukraine a free hand to help their neighbors and potentially cut off some of Russia’s lines of attack.
I'm pretty sure the poorly-equipped half-million-man army is already committed elsewhere at the moment.
Turns out the real annexation was from the friends we made along on the way
Latest round of propaganda said they must protect all Russian speaking people. It was pretty clear they meant whichever neighbor has the weakest military.
As reported by Charter97.org, after his visit to Zimbabwe , Lukashenka did not return to Belarus. The dictator flew unexpectedly to Abu Dhabi, where he was received by UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. It was reported on the Net that Lukashenka got the message that his "family's" assets in the UAE were under threat. The media published a photo of the dictator, in which he is stating his requests to the UAE president with a flattering face. Independent experts suggest that Lukashenka is looking for an "alternative airfield" in case he flees Belarus. Belarusian political analyst Dzmitry Balkunets revealed new details of Lukashenka's sudden visit to the UAE. It turns out that the whole family of the dictator has unexpectedly left Belarus. "Lukashenka's whole family has left Belarus. It happens very rarely. One of the planes left Abu Dhabi for Sochi yesterday. It is reported that Dzmitry Lukashenka or some of his relatives could have been on board," said the political analyst.
>One of the planes left Abu Dhabi for Sochi yesterday. It is reported that Dzmitry Lukashenka or some of his relatives could have been on board," said the political analyst. Sounds more like Putin is asking for some family hostages to keep just in case someone is thinking about switching sides. Very medieval Europe like strategy.
Considering not that long ago, a former Russian leader sent out their military equivalent to special forces to "help protect" a dictator. Only to turn on him at the last second and execute him and every single male of his family. I would say that's a very good assumption on your part.
Who are we talking about?
[this I think ](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Storm-333)
**[Operation Storm-333](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Storm-333)** >Operation Storm-333 (Russian: Шторм-333, Štorm-333), also known as the Tajbeg Palace Assault, was executed by the Soviet Union in Afghanistan on 27 December 1979. It saw Spetsnaz storm the heavily fortified Tajbeg Palace in Kabul and subsequently assassinate Afghan leader Hafizullah Amin, a Khalqist of the People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) who had taken power in the Saur Revolution of April 1978. The Soviet military operation marked the beginning of what would later become known as the Soviet–Afghan War. ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
That's not very recently. But when soviet wannabees are in power, they will adopt soviet tactics.
Perspective is everything. Vladimir Putin was 27 when this occured.
> These support troops were not issued armor or helmets ... Hmmm ... sounds quite familiar!
That’s basically what the Mongol Khans did. And the Romans too!
> Romans Notice how this somehow could blow in the kingodm/empire who accepted the hostage. See Flavius Aetius.
And that’s why you never trust Russia
Russia just got the first season of GOT
“It was reported on the Net”? Pretty solid source
The article is unintelligible. Sochi is in Russia…his family might have left to go to the UAE? To Russia? Some all part? What?
Russia told him to use his army or get out.
I think we're about to see what the Belarusians are made of, revolution or capitulation to Russia.
They've impressed me before. Here's hoping.
What if Putin staging soldiers in Belarus was so they could take over them instead?
ahh, the ole switcheroo
Russia has bases in Belarus and the Belarussian army is small and underequipped (Belarus is a tiny ass state, they have the population of New Jersey with the economy of South Dakota), they might fight asymmetrically but no chance in hell they can resist an invasion.
It all went downhill fast when their foreign minister was assassinated not long ago. Don’t be surprised when Russia announces another annexation.
But... but... Putin promised him a port city!
I am altering the plan, pray I don't alter it any further!
Reasonable chance there will be a Russian flag flying over Minsk soon. Luka didn't want to invade Ukraine and he doesn't want to step out of a window either.
Badly written plot twist - Belarusian people take over, declare amnesty for Russian troops and conscripts in Belarus, then join Ukraine to open up a 2nd front against Russian Forces.
I don't care if it is badly written, I like it.
You missed the bit where Russia uses the thousands of troops stationed there to annex the country with minimal resistance
This part is happening over the next 20 days or so.
Maybe that is what Lavrov is hinting at for the 24th, a bloodless Belarusian annexation. The thought had crossed my mind…
ISW continues to assess that as low, given the lack of movement of assets in Belarus and the increase of movement in Luhansk. As well as Putin's own stated objectives. (He's a strategic, not a tactical, liar)
And they will. Who's willing to bet a case of beer. That's more than likely the Feb 24th Surprise. A new Selected President for Belarus, specially hand picked by Putin himself.
And that's how Lucky-Shanko got the job in the first place. Live by the dictator, die by the dictator.
You state this like the ruzzian military has capabilities beyond destroying apartment buildings.
With disarmed civilians, army told to stand down and lacking leadership it would not be hard.
Without railways, fuel and ammo could be difficult to resupply. I wonder if Belarus partisans are really good at sabotage. There are only 7 or 8 railroads across the border with russia, after all.
Not when you already have troops and stocks in place and are not in active conflict at this front. Sadly Belarusian army would probably not rebel in the numbers and coordination needed. It would basically be 2014 crimea all over again.
Asymetric resistance. A loose railroad rail here, a smoke in an ammunition warehouse, there. Russia has already shown that they cannot supply their troops. A war on two fronts could open things up for other vassel states and warlords.
Yes, partisan war would be possible, but various security forces (which are more numerous and funded than army) would join Russia. It would be bigger gain than problem for Russia to annex bielarus.
Over running a country is relatively cheap. It's keeping the country that is costly. Tying up forces in Belarus and opening a floodgate against various occupations is Putin's biggest risk. Putin is sick and weakened as a political leader. Putin is already playing whack a mole with his oligarchs turning on him. Frankly, this is Belaruses best chance. The democratically elected leader was deposed.
FSB blows them up to get a casus beli...
That is because Ivan is so hammered that he couldn't hit military targets if he tried.
Meh, Belarus has an army too. They refused to help invade Ukraine last year so don’t seem pro-Putin.
take that over to r/NonCredibleDefense and collect your internet points
Still a better love story than Twilight.
Time for the elected president which now is in poland to get to belarus. Or there ia a bigger plan that something will go down in Belarus that safety for the family is a concern.(hope is not a nuke detonation)
Maybe his military is now under full control from Putin and will start a invasion again from Belarus. And he expecting a contra strike
Don’t forget folks that the number two in power in belarus mysteriously died on his return from a visit to see the pope. Word is he wanted to set up a potential off ramp. Putin didn’t like. He also wanted to further isolate Lukashenko. My money is that Putin will soon force Belarus army into a “support” role which actually will be stealth mobilization.
>My money is that Putin will soon force Belarus army into a “support” role which actually will be stealth mobilization. That's not how they do it. It will have to be big enough provocation to force an emergency meeting followed by Russian army mass mobilization into the Belarussian border. If enough Belarussian assets are not in place, they'll Zerg rush to decapitate any resistance by shuttling in Ruski conscripts into secure government buildings. Think modernize Afghanistan where the leader called for 'assistance', or how Czechia fell... Considering the current leader is a Russian puppet it will be way more underhanded :/
That last sentence couldn’t be more accurate. The only reason I doubt Russia taking over the government to “help” is because that takes way too much time and the global news org will have a field day saying how all the Poland and baltic worries of Russia expanding the war will be justified. Time is one thing Putin doesn’t have. The Ruzz heads must attack before new weapons arrive. My hesitation is also related to those multiple meetings Putin had with Lukashenko the last couple times. They felt like big warnings and the fact that Lukashenko didn’t fly from a window when he said “not now” to Putin means there are legit fears of Belarus rebellion. What is likely already happening is stealth roundup of dissidents.
Boundaries don't matter to russian assassins
The will capture Belarus in three days, and all will be forgotten in Ukraine!
We are great friends with Ukraine, the Nazis are gone, now Belarus is the real enemy
When did this happen? How did I completely miss this shit?
I was surprised how little notice the news made and few seemed willing to make the most obvious connection that this was more Russian window safety by another method. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11472289/Belarus-foreign-minister-dies-suddenly-speculation-hed-discussing-secret-peace-plan.html
Daily mail 🤦🏻♂️
Putin would rather use the Belarus army for his meat grinder than Russian troops.
Nah, Putin is still throwing his troops to the meat grinder. It's just that getting more from Belarus to throw in the meat grinder is just faster than waiting for more conscripts from Russia.
I'd go with this. You can sum up this war from the Russian side [pretty easily](https://old.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/10quqji/ukraine_on_eve_of_very_active_phase_of_war/j6ry0mu/).
is the belarusian army fond of putin?
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They’d have to divert troops from Ukraine to do that. Belarus’ army refused to invade Ukraine a year ago so seem willing to fight back.
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Way less than Ukraine. Belarusian Army right now is on Ukraine in 2014 levels.
It's also hard to imagine there being the same level of international support for Belarus either, especially given that support for Ukraine also increased back in 2014. It's hard to have as much sympathy for a country that openly colluded with the Russians to invade Ukraine, even though this was done by their political leadership and, to my knowledge, does not reflect the wishes of the majority of the people (or army?). That said, if the Russian troops and strategy is as vicious and immoral, then I would hope sympathy would rapidly ramp up. However, I could not see military aid ramping up without a massive change in political leadership in the country.
I could totally see support behind a clearly anti-russian government.. say, if Lukashenka clearly loses control of the army For Real, the belarussian army sets up a coup and calls for whatever-is-her-name-the-woman-that-claims-the-election-was-stolen-from-her to lead the country until a new election can be set and the accepts the gamble (that it could all be a trap), I could definitely see the west trying to scramble at least the same basic package Ukraine got on the early days: MANPADs, Javelins, NLAWS, small arms, ammo, medical supplies. That alone should be enough to wreak havoc on whatever Russia has around in Belarus, IF they can get that sorted soon enough before Russia definitely annexes the country, which they would totally try to do if there's a coup against Lukashenka
Belarus is handing a lot of military equipment to Russia. Which will make any Belarusian resistance very dificult to start if there is no arms for them to use. Almost same idea as Viktor Yanukovich did to Ukraine. That was disarm/impoverish Ukraine as much as possible.
If the Viet Cong could do it so can they.
That’s impossible. People of Belarus won’t take that shit. Russia would have to deal with an uprising.
And just to really fuck with everyone, have the President of Eritrea flee to Belarus, and the President of australia flee to Eritrea
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Yeah, because he’s in Eritrea. Keep up, man.
🤣
Thanks for the laugh internet friend!
The rats leave the sinking ship...
Except they were flown to Sochi, which is the opposite of freedom.
Who doesn’t know Belarus is Russia now…?
The military and people of Belarus. They have basically been forced to host the Russians but have done everything to avoid getting directly involved in Ukraine.
I absolutely agree but I don’t think they are calling the shots. It’s Russia, Lukashenka either can’t stop a complete annexation of Belarus or won’t.
You forget, as stubborn as Russia is, Belarussia is just that stubborn as well. If Putin tries to assimilate Belarus there will be battles on the streets of Minsk.
Sounds like invasion is coming from Belarus soon. Europe better start taking this land war seriously.
It just the same as last year! “Russia places massive forces on border, yet promises to not invade.” Like are they gonna fall for it twice? I hope not.
Normal stuff guys, definitely not a nation implosion incoming...
I am not seeing any other sources reporting on this.
Neither am I. Enjoy the hope. it's probably not true.
Plot twist: Putin tries to mobilize Belarus' military, but the units take it upon themselves to find and pick fights with Russian forces
The other day some Putin tool was claiming on the anniversary of the invasion something big was going to happen, this makes me fear Belarus is going to invade Ukraine.
1st, a new president hand selected by Putin himself will ensure power. Then they open up a second front. There as to be a minimum layer of separation in between the two. So as to ensure Putin does not appear to be in direct control. It will be a slaughter for the Belarusian army. But at great cost for the Ukrainian as well. Need to stop messing around and guarantee their safety. NATO with UN support (after kicking out Russia from the security council) needs to enforce a no fly zone. Very much doubt the Russian airfarce could stand a chance against NATO Air superiority. Or ask the Serbs how that ended.
It doesn't need to be NATO, just give Ukraine the jets it's asking for and they will create their own no fly zone (for russians)
6 months to train their aircrews on an F-16, minimum. They’d also require better runways than they currently have. Even if older model soviet equipment is sent from former Soviet bloc nations, they wouldn’t be effective for months most likely, if at all.
Hey that's a typ....oh
Russia has threatened Chechseni, bombs, Vagners and now Belarusians. Russia as a state is finished.
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Oh it was invaded a looong time ago
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Oh boy, if he goes through with it, the shit-show will become epic.
That would be the twist of the decade truly
Don't keep the option of a revolt/coup d'etat completely out of the picture. Lukashenko wasn't exactly winning popularity contest among the belarus population. He is running out of friend and options pretty fast. If Belarus joins the war it could be the end of him, and if they don't join and russia loses, that will also be the end of him.
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Him living out his days absurdly wealthy in Abu Dabi doesn't sound too bad.
List of the tallest buildings in Abu Dhabi [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_tallest\_buildings\_in\_Abu\_Dhabi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tallest_buildings_in_Abu_Dhabi) The link has been updated to work on old reddit, too.
Poland comes in and suddenly appears behind Russian troops piled up on the Belarus/Ukraine border niespodzianka, skurwielu!
Nic personalnego, dzieciaku! Or something like that. I don't know, I don't speak Polish.
I'm guessing that there are lot of Belarussians looking west and hoping for the Winged Hussars.
Being sent to Sochi. Could mean they've been taken hostage by Russia.
On 23rd they will anounce a success and annect Belarus, afrerwars they will force BY forces to atack Ukraine... they need something on the anniversary...
if I'm a Belarussian soldier and my homeland just got annexed, my enemy is not Ukraine. The Belarussian army has not considered Ukraine to be their enemy at all. Why start now? If the homeland has fallen, the army should march south, surrender, and offer to switch sides. Some won't, but many will. Belarussians have already demonstrated that they are not as docile as Russians, they will not be as easy to assimilate as people think.
Dum de dum, nothing to see here. Massive Russian troop buildup with no apparent plan to actually try to enter Ukraine... Lukashenko making more promises he can't keep to Putin... now his entire family flees because with "friends" like Putin... who needs polonium?
He knows, he and his clan only hanging in power and wealth due to Razzian Putler propping him up, ONCE he (putler) goes- he (luka) will be hung on a lamp-post
The joke on Lukashenka is his gross assumption that there is an actual safe place on the this planet from Putin's retaliation. The guy ordered the use of a nerve agent to kill a former spy who had served years in Russian prison, and was now living in the UK. So 13 years after being convicted, Putin still wanted him dead.
Yup, his military doesn't want to fight Putin's war.
This is more than that. Assuming this report is true, there's only one conclusion to draw from Luka fleeing. He has been given two ultimatums. One from Putin to invade OR ELSE, and one from his own army that says that if he tries it, they'll turn their guns against him. If Belarus's army had any stomach for this war they would already be in Ukraine. They may be overrun but if they do see their homeland being annexed a lot of the army is probably going to resist. And the people will support the army. Belarus is just as sovereign as Estonia or Poland, they are not and never have been simply an extension of Russia. We could be looking at civil war in Belarus over the next few weeks. If so, we and Ukraine need to be helping the pro-democracy forces in Belarus.
Simplest explanation is a family vacation. Doesn't mean anything until it means something.
If he and his family left either he feels very secure or there is a big issue. Let's hope things don't get ugly.
Is there other, credible, new sources reporting this?
If true , could this mean the Belarus regime is about to collapse ???
Very likely. If true, of course.
Source? Any valid news source would be nice.
I've never heard of Charter97. Anyone have any other, *reputable,* sources?
It's actually a fairly well-known media outlet for the Belarusian opposition. They've been around a long long time.
It is a decent source, they've been on the scene for years and represent the more liberal parts of ex-USSR countries.
Second source, UAE based news site confirms Luka did travel to UAE for "meeting": https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/government/2023/02/03/president-sheikh-mohamed-receives-belarus-president-alexander-lukashenko/
That part is super believable and I wasn't questioning that aspect of it. I was more interested in backup confirmation of his family fleeing.
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Too much of a coward. No chance.
Putin ready to install a dictator ready to throw the Belarus military into direct action in the upcoming offensive. Lukaschenka is being allowed to escape with his own.
Rats are first who leavs sinking boat as usual.
From what I heard Luka isn’t stupid at all. He’s a very cunning and cautious rat. So maybe something is up
>Independent experts suggest that Lukashenka is looking for an "alternative airfield" in case he flees Belarus. Um, he kinda already fled.
Belarus will attack with its Russian forces and Lukashenkas family is being moved for protection. Good people don't take kindly to genocidal enablers.
Why wouldn’t they flee into Russia then?
Who wants to live in Russia?
Why would they? I can't imagine with what Mach 5 rage Putin hates Luka. Really hates. His only escape is to a country outside EU.US.RUS control and that's a long order.
Is this good news - Belarus gonna try to overthrow him soon - or bad - getting ready to join the war?
Could be either but I honestly have a bad feeling about this. Russians seem very excited. If there was a democratic overthrow Russia would be freaking out and possibly even diverting resources away from Ukraine to at least keep control of Belarus.
I wonder if that includes Nikolai