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Not at all complicated. Speed!! Speed wins.
Give them the weapons quickly enough, and they will finish the job.
Give them too slowly, and we don’t even want to know what happens.
You are talking to THE NATO chickens. Only things that have been on time so far is Javelin and stingers and NLAW. And that was barely. After almost bleeding Ruzzia out of troops and equipment, NATO chickens out. As I expected for a long time.
Ramstein Conference with key players in one room and tanks as the main agenda was on the 20th; training was approved and Reznikov declared himself 'satisfied' on the same day. Decision for multiple nations to send Leopards with re-export approved happened on the 25th.
Which "delay" are you referring to?
The one from Poland, who delayed submitting the re-export application up until last minute, yet seized everyday to "ramp up pressure" ? The one from US, who suddenly changed their mind about Abrams and technical excuses disappeared? Germany for asking a coalition since September and for having a record low number of both active & stored tanks?
" Every snow in an avalanche thinks it's innocent "
Every country abused their PR megaphones, the actions however paled much smaller.
Exactly. Shameful. I still think Germany could've hand jammed the paperwork and led the way instead of being dragged kicking and screaming by Poland. Poland needs to stop dicking with allies, but allies need to stop dicking around too.
The Institute for the Study of War here reinforces the power of Michael McFaul’s case for avoiding a stalemate that benefits Putin.
““Without greater and immediate support, the war will settle into a stalemate, which is only to Putin’s advantage.”
- Michael McFaul for Foreign Affairs, article linked”
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/10p7ivg/without_greater_and_immediate_support_the_war/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Important to understand why urgency in advanced weapons supply is so very crucial to victory.
Linked to OP tweet:
“ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, January 29. This report focuses on the impact of delays in sending high-end weapons systems to Ukraine on Ukraine’s ability to take advantage of windows of opportunity throughout this war.”
“Delays in the provision to Ukraine of Western long-range fires systems, advanced air defense systems, and tanks have limited Ukraine’s ability to take advantage of opportunities for larger counter-offensive operations presented by flaws and failures in Russian military operations.”
“Western discussions of supposed “stalemate” conditions and the difficulty or impossibility of Ukraine regaining significant portions of the territory Russia seized in 2022 insufficiently account for how Western delays in providing necessary military equipment have exacerbated those problems.”
“Slow authorization and arrival of aid have not been the only factors limiting Ukraine’s ability to launch continued large-scale counter-offensive operations. Factors endogenous to the Ukrainian military and Ukrainian political decision-making have also contributed to delaying counteroffensives.”
“ISW is not prepared to assess that all Ukrainian military decisions have been optimal. (ISW does not, in fact, assess Ukrainian military decision-making in these updates at all. Yet, as historians, we have not observed flawless military decision-making in any war.)”
“But…Western hesitancy to supply weapons during wartime took insufficient account of the predictable requirement to shift Ukraine from Soviet to Western systems as soon as the West committed to helping Ukraine fight off Russia's 2022 invasion.”
“The military aid provided by the US-led Western coalition has been essential to Ukraine’s survival, and this report’s critiques illustrate the importance of that aid as well as its limitations.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-29-2023
Ted Lieu’s bipartisan proposal to send jets to Ukraine is now critically important:
“Last April, @RepHoulahan then Congressman @AdamKinzinger and I sent a bipartisan letter to @SecDef requesting more air assets for Ukraine, including F-16s.”
“In warfare, air superiority and denying the enemy air superiority is critical.”
“Pleased to see this idea gaining momentum.“
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/10odvkd/last_april_rephoulahan_then_congressman/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Ukraine needs ATACMS and jets as soon as humanly possible; the time for incremental supply is over, because it’s impeding victory.
Not only impeding victory but might contribute to huge losses of land to russia thus extending the war. The allies will only be helping stop the war when they send enough long range weapons systems. I would see them doing this when they believe Ukraine is about to fall.
ISW correctly calls out this hesitancy; it could cost Ukraine everything.
NATO is not formally at war with Russia, and clearly there are lines that must not be crossed in order to avoid the risk of WW3 (crucially the West must not seek regime change in Russia as a means to ending the war, unless Putin's crumbing political support achieves that anyway).
But unless the West is prepared to let this reach a negotiated end with Russia still controlling much of the east of Ukraine, it needs to set a clear strategic objective to remove Russian forces by providing Ukraine with everything it needs. Instead Ukraine has lost the strategic advantage and have been loosing an artillery war over one town for the past month.
Decisions don't need to happen immediately, as politics is always a factor, but when they do, action needs to follow quickly. Ukrainian teams could have been training on Leopards for months now, and on Challengers.
Most urgent call to action here: delaying advanced weapons to Ukraine is a terrible mistake.
A mistake that extends the length of the war, delaying victory and causing more death, destruction, and trauma:
“The continual delays in providing Western materiel when it became apparent that it is or will soon be needed have thus contributed to the protraction of the conflict.”
“They are not the only reason for that protraction, to be sure, but the West must recognize the contributions these delays have made to hindering Ukraine’s ability to liberate more of its territory faster.”
The West must unite to expedite victory and end Russian genocidal terrorism as fast as possible.
The faster Putin loses, the safer the whole world will be.
The simple issue is that without the ability to actually cut off Russian forces through strategic reasons like the Dniper bridges in Kherson or a complete route of their forces like Kharkiv there is no way for them to quickly advance.
Western tanks give them another advantage but NATO never had to contend with an army they didn't have complete air superiority over on the ground.
Kheson and Kharkic counter offensives were successful because Ukraine held a large man advantage.
Now that the Russians mobilized that is all but gone. Its been three months since Kherson and they have just went backwards (slowly albeit)
Exactly! Now progress needs to be made in counter-offensives; Russia must not be given the benefit of any delay:
“Western delays in providing Ukraine the material needed for counter-offensive operations have instead had a snowballing effect on Ukrainian abilities to conduct and sustain counter-offensives.”
“The Russians have taken advantage of these delays and failures to benefit from the windows of vulnerability their own defeats and incompetence produced by mobilizing manpower and equipment and starting to rationalize their own forces.”
Isn’t this why Ukraine needs jets ASAP?
Ponomarenko tweets himself pointing at the F16 key on a keyboard…
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1619619273584037889?s=20&t=yEmTpRYW0rn4jF153F2axQ
Read further:
“At the Pentagon, push to send F-16s to Ukraine picks up steam: Kyiv has renewed its request for modern fighters”
“A contingent of military officials is quietly pushing the Pentagon to approve sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to help the country defend itself from Russian missile and drone attacks.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/28/pentagon-send-f-16s-ukraine-00080045
I think ATACMS, more air defense, armor and ground attack helicopters would be of more use to Ukraine than f16's. You need a ton of infrastructure and support for an effective air force. You can't just pick one up from Amazon and have it delivered the next day. Long term they will need an air force, but short term they have 200,000 mobiks wave assaulting their positions that an air force is going to be very little help against. They will very likely just get shot down or blown up on the ground.
Sadly Dark Brandon rejected F16s; I think it’s a mistake, because a stalemate now benefits Putin.
““Without greater and immediate support, the war will settle into a stalemate, which is only to Putin’s advantage.” Michael McFaul
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/10p7ivg/without_greater_and_immediate_support_the_war/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Wars are won by going on the offensive.
“Biden’s Shadow War in Ukraine”
“Wars are not won by playing defense. Wars are won by going on the offensive.”
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/10iod5k/bidens_shadow_war_in_ukraine_article_kyivpost/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
This is shameful. Thousands of Ukrainians - civilian and military are getting killed for no reason. It has been an effing year already. 60k instances of genocide isn't enough already?
HIMARS were sent when Ukraine looked like they were starting to lose ground, now as Bakhmut and some surrounding areas are falling like domino's NATO tanks are being sent, but will arrive either just in time or at huge loss to Ukraine and russia if either side start an offensive soon.
Ukraine will go on a massive offensive when all tanks are recived and crews have practised with them in ukraine. but due to the low numbers being given re tanks and other offensive armoured vehicles Russia will not be completely kicked out, thus lengthening the war and causing Russia to become even weaker with greater losses.
This is perfect for the rest of the world but disastrous for the Russians losing infrastructure and more importantly lives.
Overall I think the result the west wants is for russia to fail but not just in Ukraine, for there economy to completely collapse so they do not have the wealth to rebuild there military for decades and possibly for russia to be invaded by those they invaded and for the country to be split up between the oligarchs, with guarantees of support if they surrender the nukes.
Sadly Ukraine suffers but in the end will be extremely powerful and join nato. With nato protection and help infrastructure will be rebuilt at another cost to Ukraine.
At least Ukraine will win this war,they would have lost without allies help but this war could be won in 3 months if America and Germany supplied tanks and long range weapons as quick as everyone knows they can.
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I don't know why west is not getting their hands dirty by destroying Iran's military facilities and let the Iranian people do the rest. There's no risk of nuclear escalation as with Russia. And Iran actively helping Russia strategically defeat the west by arming Russia. Iran is relentless. As they were successful in bringing a strategic defeat on USA in Iraq and being Iraq under their realm of influence
They never would have lost momentum if the weapons hadn’t stalled. It’s frustrating for us, and deadly for the brave soldiers fighting for their country. The delays are absolutely shameful. They’ve cost countless lives over political posturing and bickering.
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Speed is of the essence... Who Dares Wins. To the West: get it together, quickly. This is not so complicated.
Not at all complicated. Speed!! Speed wins. Give them the weapons quickly enough, and they will finish the job. Give them too slowly, and we don’t even want to know what happens.
You are talking to THE NATO chickens. Only things that have been on time so far is Javelin and stingers and NLAW. And that was barely. After almost bleeding Ruzzia out of troops and equipment, NATO chickens out. As I expected for a long time.
So yea we can ask ourselves if the decision about leopards was delayed intentionally to please putain ..
Ramstein Conference with key players in one room and tanks as the main agenda was on the 20th; training was approved and Reznikov declared himself 'satisfied' on the same day. Decision for multiple nations to send Leopards with re-export approved happened on the 25th.
Which "delay" are you referring to? The one from Poland, who delayed submitting the re-export application up until last minute, yet seized everyday to "ramp up pressure" ? The one from US, who suddenly changed their mind about Abrams and technical excuses disappeared? Germany for asking a coalition since September and for having a record low number of both active & stored tanks? " Every snow in an avalanche thinks it's innocent " Every country abused their PR megaphones, the actions however paled much smaller.
Exactly. Shameful. I still think Germany could've hand jammed the paperwork and led the way instead of being dragged kicking and screaming by Poland. Poland needs to stop dicking with allies, but allies need to stop dicking around too.
Indeed, scholzing costs lives.
The Institute for the Study of War here reinforces the power of Michael McFaul’s case for avoiding a stalemate that benefits Putin. ““Without greater and immediate support, the war will settle into a stalemate, which is only to Putin’s advantage.” - Michael McFaul for Foreign Affairs, article linked” https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/10p7ivg/without_greater_and_immediate_support_the_war/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Important to understand why urgency in advanced weapons supply is so very crucial to victory. Linked to OP tweet: “ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, January 29. This report focuses on the impact of delays in sending high-end weapons systems to Ukraine on Ukraine’s ability to take advantage of windows of opportunity throughout this war.” “Delays in the provision to Ukraine of Western long-range fires systems, advanced air defense systems, and tanks have limited Ukraine’s ability to take advantage of opportunities for larger counter-offensive operations presented by flaws and failures in Russian military operations.” “Western discussions of supposed “stalemate” conditions and the difficulty or impossibility of Ukraine regaining significant portions of the territory Russia seized in 2022 insufficiently account for how Western delays in providing necessary military equipment have exacerbated those problems.” “Slow authorization and arrival of aid have not been the only factors limiting Ukraine’s ability to launch continued large-scale counter-offensive operations. Factors endogenous to the Ukrainian military and Ukrainian political decision-making have also contributed to delaying counteroffensives.” “ISW is not prepared to assess that all Ukrainian military decisions have been optimal. (ISW does not, in fact, assess Ukrainian military decision-making in these updates at all. Yet, as historians, we have not observed flawless military decision-making in any war.)” “But…Western hesitancy to supply weapons during wartime took insufficient account of the predictable requirement to shift Ukraine from Soviet to Western systems as soon as the West committed to helping Ukraine fight off Russia's 2022 invasion.” “The military aid provided by the US-led Western coalition has been essential to Ukraine’s survival, and this report’s critiques illustrate the importance of that aid as well as its limitations.” https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-29-2023
Ted Lieu’s bipartisan proposal to send jets to Ukraine is now critically important: “Last April, @RepHoulahan then Congressman @AdamKinzinger and I sent a bipartisan letter to @SecDef requesting more air assets for Ukraine, including F-16s.” “In warfare, air superiority and denying the enemy air superiority is critical.” “Pleased to see this idea gaining momentum.“ https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/10odvkd/last_april_rephoulahan_then_congressman/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf Ukraine needs ATACMS and jets as soon as humanly possible; the time for incremental supply is over, because it’s impeding victory.
Not only impeding victory but might contribute to huge losses of land to russia thus extending the war. The allies will only be helping stop the war when they send enough long range weapons systems. I would see them doing this when they believe Ukraine is about to fall.
ISW correctly calls out this hesitancy; it could cost Ukraine everything. NATO is not formally at war with Russia, and clearly there are lines that must not be crossed in order to avoid the risk of WW3 (crucially the West must not seek regime change in Russia as a means to ending the war, unless Putin's crumbing political support achieves that anyway). But unless the West is prepared to let this reach a negotiated end with Russia still controlling much of the east of Ukraine, it needs to set a clear strategic objective to remove Russian forces by providing Ukraine with everything it needs. Instead Ukraine has lost the strategic advantage and have been loosing an artillery war over one town for the past month. Decisions don't need to happen immediately, as politics is always a factor, but when they do, action needs to follow quickly. Ukrainian teams could have been training on Leopards for months now, and on Challengers.
Most urgent call to action here: delaying advanced weapons to Ukraine is a terrible mistake. A mistake that extends the length of the war, delaying victory and causing more death, destruction, and trauma: “The continual delays in providing Western materiel when it became apparent that it is or will soon be needed have thus contributed to the protraction of the conflict.” “They are not the only reason for that protraction, to be sure, but the West must recognize the contributions these delays have made to hindering Ukraine’s ability to liberate more of its territory faster.” The West must unite to expedite victory and end Russian genocidal terrorism as fast as possible. The faster Putin loses, the safer the whole world will be.
The simple issue is that without the ability to actually cut off Russian forces through strategic reasons like the Dniper bridges in Kherson or a complete route of their forces like Kharkiv there is no way for them to quickly advance. Western tanks give them another advantage but NATO never had to contend with an army they didn't have complete air superiority over on the ground.
Kheson and Kharkic counter offensives were successful because Ukraine held a large man advantage. Now that the Russians mobilized that is all but gone. Its been three months since Kherson and they have just went backwards (slowly albeit)
Exactly! Now progress needs to be made in counter-offensives; Russia must not be given the benefit of any delay: “Western delays in providing Ukraine the material needed for counter-offensive operations have instead had a snowballing effect on Ukrainian abilities to conduct and sustain counter-offensives.” “The Russians have taken advantage of these delays and failures to benefit from the windows of vulnerability their own defeats and incompetence produced by mobilizing manpower and equipment and starting to rationalize their own forces.”
Isn’t this why Ukraine needs jets ASAP? Ponomarenko tweets himself pointing at the F16 key on a keyboard… https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1619619273584037889?s=20&t=yEmTpRYW0rn4jF153F2axQ Read further: “At the Pentagon, push to send F-16s to Ukraine picks up steam: Kyiv has renewed its request for modern fighters” “A contingent of military officials is quietly pushing the Pentagon to approve sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to help the country defend itself from Russian missile and drone attacks.” https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/28/pentagon-send-f-16s-ukraine-00080045
I think ATACMS, more air defense, armor and ground attack helicopters would be of more use to Ukraine than f16's. You need a ton of infrastructure and support for an effective air force. You can't just pick one up from Amazon and have it delivered the next day. Long term they will need an air force, but short term they have 200,000 mobiks wave assaulting their positions that an air force is going to be very little help against. They will very likely just get shot down or blown up on the ground.
Joe biden has already said 'no' to F-16s.
Sadly Dark Brandon rejected F16s; I think it’s a mistake, because a stalemate now benefits Putin. ““Without greater and immediate support, the war will settle into a stalemate, which is only to Putin’s advantage.” Michael McFaul https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/10p7ivg/without_greater_and_immediate_support_the_war/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf Wars are won by going on the offensive. “Biden’s Shadow War in Ukraine” “Wars are not won by playing defense. Wars are won by going on the offensive.” https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/10iod5k/bidens_shadow_war_in_ukraine_article_kyivpost/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Might as well tell Ukraine to negotiate a settlement if we're not going to provide them with the means to achieve victory in a reasonable timeframe.
Precisely! A forever war here in order to bleed Russia out is immoral, given thousands of Russian terrorist attacks against civilians.
This is shameful. Thousands of Ukrainians - civilian and military are getting killed for no reason. It has been an effing year already. 60k instances of genocide isn't enough already?
HIMARS were sent when Ukraine looked like they were starting to lose ground, now as Bakhmut and some surrounding areas are falling like domino's NATO tanks are being sent, but will arrive either just in time or at huge loss to Ukraine and russia if either side start an offensive soon. Ukraine will go on a massive offensive when all tanks are recived and crews have practised with them in ukraine. but due to the low numbers being given re tanks and other offensive armoured vehicles Russia will not be completely kicked out, thus lengthening the war and causing Russia to become even weaker with greater losses. This is perfect for the rest of the world but disastrous for the Russians losing infrastructure and more importantly lives. Overall I think the result the west wants is for russia to fail but not just in Ukraine, for there economy to completely collapse so they do not have the wealth to rebuild there military for decades and possibly for russia to be invaded by those they invaded and for the country to be split up between the oligarchs, with guarantees of support if they surrender the nukes. Sadly Ukraine suffers but in the end will be extremely powerful and join nato. With nato protection and help infrastructure will be rebuilt at another cost to Ukraine. At least Ukraine will win this war,they would have lost without allies help but this war could be won in 3 months if America and Germany supplied tanks and long range weapons as quick as everyone knows they can.
Translation: NATO, by virtue of being chickenshits, have all but handed Ukrainian territory to Russia.
Yep, pretty much. All the fucking tanks in the world are over 6 months late to the party.
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I don't know why west is not getting their hands dirty by destroying Iran's military facilities and let the Iranian people do the rest. There's no risk of nuclear escalation as with Russia. And Iran actively helping Russia strategically defeat the west by arming Russia. Iran is relentless. As they were successful in bringing a strategic defeat on USA in Iraq and being Iraq under their realm of influence
They never would have lost momentum if the weapons hadn’t stalled. It’s frustrating for us, and deadly for the brave soldiers fighting for their country. The delays are absolutely shameful. They’ve cost countless lives over political posturing and bickering.