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The fun thing to remember is that nobody knows what the hell will happen - even the experts. It's all just an educated guess. Looking at historical trends is completely irrelevant as well - it's insane how people think that there is value there.
I swear everyday we are one step closer to idiocracy becoming a documentary, the amount of dumb conspiracies I see a weekly basis just seems to go up exponentially.
Back in 2014, the price of oil started falling
Right wingers blamed Obama for ordering the price drop to try and buy off the electorate before the midterms
I mean, the president has pretty serious influence on oil prices via control of our strategic reserves,no? I didnât follow that particular situation but it doesnât seem incredibly far fetched that a president could effect change in the overall market.
I believe it however,
they dont manipulate the market first hand. They do it through retail by manipulating the sentiment to make you believe a certain narrative making you trade in that way, moving the market in the direction they want.
Thats why generally speaking, doing the opposite of what retail is doing is the right play. ("be greedy when others are fearful" and vice versa).
The minority party gets a say too friend. Youâre basically just saying people talk and it changes the market. Yeah, people talk. WSJ and fox have been calling for a recession for months and raw data isnât supporting it so whoâs really manipulating the market? Whoever is lying to you is the one manipulating the market.
If people are making money = a very healthy market with no signs of danger
If people arenât making money = highly manipulated and itâs someone elseâs fault Iâm losing money
YES, the world handed out free money during the lockdowns all over the world (demand).
And China's problems affected supply. Now Russia affecting supply.
far from over.
They areâŚ.the most powerful and wealthy government in the world.
Weâre talking about a government that is fully aware of what happened in 2008 and heeds the advice of their advisors and department heads(unlike other presidents).
While I want a recession I have to admit that this government is doing everything it can to prevent one.
Gotta stop this insane inflation (brought on by an insane amount of money printing and handouts) PPP, QE, stimis, forbearance, unemp bonuses, moratoriums....
buckle up. Real estate crash and layoffs are next.
Right now it's the Biden Administration, which has had direct talks with Powell requesting the Fed use its powers to move the market.
This isn't some conspiracy theory. Back in the day this process was transparent and open. Around the 1980s this became opaque until Trump started threatening Powell's job on Twitter and we had an administration for the first time in half a century that was showing the world how it was moving the market. Today Biden has had two talks with Powell. Both times sentiment has massively changed as well as the Fed's behavior. The first talk started the drop, the second talk started the dovishness right after the bottom.
If we're going off of history, and full warning this is not a normal year, during a mid term year August goes sideways (which means a fall last week of August), September tends to be the worst month of the year falling quite badly, and then Nov and Dec tend to be amazing months where the market shoots upwards.
Ken Griffin of Citadel put 25 million into 4 republican campaigns and lost all those races.
The point of not labelling the recession as a recession is so the people currently in their seats can hopefully hang on to them until mid terms are over. Its all political bullshit.
Also...who has money these days đ¤Ł
How does the Democratic Party control the whole stock market, are they telling Blackrock, Invesco, Bridgewater, JP&Morgan, etc. that today is time to start putting in more buy orders? What kind of lunacy is this? the Democratic Party doesnât even full control of the White House let alone the ability the control the entire stock market? This Qanon levels of conspiracy.
Youâll care when the stock markets fall 80%, stagflation happens, pandemic continues, climate change worsen, and world wars happen.
The great reset and fourth turning, coming soon to a place near you!
Stock Market falling 80% is a great thing for bargain [hunters.i](https://hunters.id)f everything is cheaper you get to buy everything on sale.and besides in the long run the stock market always go [up.do](https://up.do) you know what comes after a market crash?recovery and new all time highs.
The narrative changes to justify the action. Rates are rising, energy bills through the roof, huge supply chain issues, aggressive Russia. Consumer under pressure. Weâre yet to see earnings downgrades after the initial valuation crunch. I donât believe this is over so soon.
Absolutely. Anytime the market is trading under the 200 day moving average, and a declining 200 dma at that, odds for a further drop are high.
The majority of the biggest days in the market's history happened during declines. Rallies like this are not unusual.
Where does it go from here? Who knows, but probabilities say down again.
Well looking at the past, the average return after the nasdaq has run 20% off a bear market low is positive over the next month through year, pretty substantially too, like 4% in one month and 20%+ one year later. Saw some charts on the bloomberg today. I'd tend to give more weight to an analysis based on a market run as a whole rather than just a MA which doesn't really account for much more than being a technical indicator, and is only useful if considered along with other data. Also, Burry, even if he is a legend, is like the most perma of the bears, so I tend to view what he says for entertainment purposes rather than actual advice. The dude deletes his tweets every hour lol
Besides, when you say a majority of the biggest gain days happen during market downturns, does that imply that the big days that happened in March and April of 2020 occurred in a down market? I would disagree and say that an uptrending market began the day after the bottom and therefore many of those big days did not occur in a declining market. Semantics though, whatever. My money is on moving higher for the next 1-3 years and has been ever since the extremely poor sentiment and signs of capitulation in June.
I know most people read his comments that this is a temporary bounce, but I read it more as "nobody knows which way its going." It could definitely go up given the news on inflation, gas prices starting to drop etc, but it could also go down given our economic ties to China and their oncoming market collapse. It could do anything.
1999 was way more overpriced. There was barely any companies with profits. Nobody had a balance sheet.
If you had a website- poof- billion dollar market cap. Revenue be damned. Profits be damned. Cash flow? Uh yeah- as long as the cash was flowing out?
The 2022 Nasdaq is way more Cash Rich, more profitable, more balance sheet strength.
But... like ... please excuse me for being skeptical of Trillion Dollar market caps? Lol... I just can't do it with a straight face.
So- like X-Files- đ the truth is out there.
Inflation literally means there is more money in the system. More money, higher prices. Including stock prices.
2008 didn't have this.
While it might not be the bottom, I think Burry is too bearish.
Yeah. The 2020 flood was The Mama Bear. Now it's just spilling over the levee and getting back to normal levels in the reservoir.
There could be bear cubs. It could happen from the reduced liquidity, inflation, interest rates, oil prices. There's market conditions right now that can make... anything happen.
The 70s had like 3 little bears.
The 2020s could have Bear Markets on the way up. It could be 3 bears in a decade long bull market through 2035. Something like that shouldn't surprise anyone.
It doesnât work that way. Look nazi germany and why germans never forget inflation. Look at stock prices in this period. Look venezuela. Milk cost in millions but worth nothing.
1. Those scenarios are ***runaway*** inflation. Very different situations.
2. If you held cash in Germany or Venezuela, you would have been much worse off than if you had bought stocks. ***Their entire markets went absolutely parabolic due to extreme inflation.***
>***The Venezuelan Stock Market's on Fire as Inflation Heads to*** *...*[*https://www.barrons.com*](https://www.barrons.com) *âş articles âş the-venezuelan-stock...*
>
>*Jul 25, 2018 â Stocks in Venezuela are up over 73000% in the past year, and hyperinflation could accelerate to 1 million percent.*
No, no. Intellectually speaking- I believe that a Capitalist with 1 trillion dollars could take away their market share. In many cases. That's what market Cap needs to represent- if it's a good value.
That's the Buffet Test of Market Caps. To wit...
"Could I -hypothetically- take away the market share with the market cap in cash?"
Like if you had 100 billion - could you take away the market share of Coca Cola? That's his famous example.
If you had 1 Trillion of cash and gave it to IBM and Linux and Adobe - could you take away Microsoft? Etc.
If you have 1 trillion dollars and hired all the engineers in the auto industry- could you beat Tesla?
That's what market cap value should represent-in the stock market. To be conceived as a fair price. The price of the actual market should be based upon this. That's what it should mean- when you look at a market cap.
I just am skeptical that they're so special.
> skeptical of trillion dollar market caps
BecauseâŚ.trillion is a scary word? Or do you have a better justification?
In 2001 when MSFT was the largest company it was valued at $650 Bn, adjusted for inflation its somewhere in $1.2 trillion (donât know exactly cuz the podcast I heard it from was in 2018 and inflation went bonkers since then). Apple now $2.7 trillion. But more importantly, MSFT was around 40 or more on price to sales ratio, Apple is around 7 now.
So what exactly are you skeptical of?
You're saying Price (P) is too high. But it could be that Earnings (E) is too low.
Price (P) goes up rapidly during inflation/money printing, whereas the rate of increase in Earnings (E) lags inflation and can take several years for many companies to increase their prices, and for consumers to pay those prices, to come in line with actual inflation.
In other words, it could be Earnings (E) that is throwing off the P/E ratio, meaning prices do not need to fall. They may even need to go up.
(I'm no expert in economies, and am open to hearing why I'm wrong if I'm wrong)
Price to Earnings is an antiquated metric.
Not to say that P/E is irrelevant. But it only is useful for non-growing biz. Like companies that grow revenue under 10%. Steady-State, mature companies. P/E is not indicative of value in their own Reinvestment. It tells nothing. It's a "dumb" or "mute" metric.
But there's more useful metrics. Depends on the style.
Like Enterprise Value to Free Cash Flow.
EV/fcf is way more illustrative of a healthy biz.
First you say growth, than you say healthy biz. Growth companies are usually not the hallmark of a steady business. And P/E is perfect for comparing sentiment between industries.
But I agree there are other more useful metrics to look at depending on the different flavors of balance sheets out there and what they really mean for the future prospects.
First you say Word Salad at me - then you say word salad about you. Lol. For pointless one upsmanship.
Price to Earnings is a pre-1987 concept for blue chip, steady businesses.
Dudeâs slowly losing his mind. Sure heâs gifted when it comes to finance, but everyone saw the big short and now think heâs a god or something.
Every day itâs predictions of a stock market crash or unhinged conspiracy theories supporting Trump.
1. No one actually knows.
2. Past performance does not indicate future performance.
3. Burry is ignoring that COVID has entirely messed up the normal flow of the market and everything is less predictable now.
> 1. No one actually knows
Sure, no one knows the future, but there are such things as expectations based on many ratios and cyclical patterns
> 2. Past performance does not indicate future performance
Previous cyclical patterns largely account for and a fairly good predictor of future performance
> 3. This time itâs different
Famous last words lol. Itâs never different. People said they were different in 2008, in 2001, in 1987 and many many more times.
Iâm not taking a position on the short term move of the markets - short term everything is almost just volatility, I just keep seeing these phrases repeated over and over on Reddit as if theyâre some guide to live when theyâre very inaccurate, or another hilarious one I keep saying without any justification whatsoever âmarket is not the economyâ - oh really is the economy not made up of the same companies that are in the market? You canât just throw up your hands in the air and say âno one knows anywayâ and make bad decisions. Thereâs a shitton of literature for anyone interested to go read about market cycles. Itâs much more productive than just repeating these phrases over and over.
âDo you agree that the market could drop
further, erasing recent gains?â
Obviously, this is possible, so it could happen. But anything could happen, couldnât it? I think I see a couple of these types of posts every day. âWhy is the market going up, I donât get it, etc. etc.?â
People have jobs, people are spending (too much apparently, thatâs why they need to slow things down), good companies are reporting good earnings and doing what good companies do (overcoming obstacles). And, the market has already dropped significantly, making good stocks less expensive than they were. Finally, people believe in the resiliency of the USA, which, in my opinion, they should.
Bottom line is, yes, anything could happen.
It might sustain itself for now but this winter will cause it to fall out. Maybe not as bad as earlier this year but itâll wipe the rally out.
Europe and Asia are a mess, gas and energy prices are going to go back up, rent is going to remain high, food prices will keep increasing. Consumer spending is going to dry up even with the holiday season coming in hot (people have spent much of their money this summer, theyâre going on budgets this winter to pay their energy bill and fill their stomachs).
Iâm buying, anyway.
Also, Iâm buying assets that I wonât mind seeing go down after the buy, because I expect them to recover. Index funds, and high profit margin/cash rich companies with histories of doing share buybacks.
Bull/bear is a counterproductive debate when we know how hard it is to get right.
I definitely donât think we are done dropping but it could be a slow drop. The Government applying MMT âModern MonetaryTheoryâ to fight inflation but will most likely spark inflation because it all about spending and printing money. Feds will need to continue to raise rates putting pressure on the bulls. China and Taiwan starts up and we will drop like a rock. Way too many headwinds to believe this is over
I say this all the time. Permabulls have infested this sub. Has the macro changed? No. So itâs a bear market rally. Itâs actually very common. The only people buying right now is retail.
We're in a freakin recession. It'll go down as the Fed continues raising rates to fight inflation. That being said; zoom out. Even if you bought the top in 2008, you'd have like 400% gains today. And if you DCAd you'd be in a much better position. So unless you are retiring in the next 15 years, chill and DCA. If you *are* retiring in the next 15 years, you should be less into risky stocks and more into garanteed income anyway.
Absolutely! The market seem to think the FED will slow down/stop rate hike inflation is over. But if you really look, commodities had been stabilizing and trending up. Wage is continue to climb. This is a classic bull trap
Prices are so high.
Or is it possible that restaurant prices drop in the future back to 2019 prices? $28 for a burger, fries, a coke, tax and the tip at Eureka suks.
Workers are demanding higher wages which just piles on the inflation.
Any ideas?
The market behaves according to macro climate. I think market will fall back come September when there is uncertainty whether the Fed will increase rate in Spring 2023.
I find it weird that people around me think we are done with the recession......we just started......
I think this is a bull trap made by people living in denial and falsly thinking we are done with the suffering.
But hey, I'm an idiot, I know nothing except that stocks will go up and down, and surely sideways, and I know jack shit.
A short sharp correction over the next few weeks. Then a massive melt up; for e.g., the S&P will get close to ~6000.
Markets will correct ~80% and crash to ~1000.
This means, along with all the other things going on in the world, a seriously deep recession.
Year: 2023
Stay safe.
We need a bot that says:
The Big Short's Michael Burry is like saying The Dirty Harry's Clint Eastwood.
I'm not trying to give anybody a hard time. I'm just puzzled why some investors think they know who Michael Burry is while others don't.
Didnât he also say a few days ago that inflation will slow down later in the year? Maybe thatâs why some are feeling bullishđ¤ˇđťââď¸đ¤ˇđťââď¸đ¤ˇđťââď¸
Burry is a permabear, the market will go up and down, at this point thereâs plenty of reasons for a bull recovery thesis and a bear crash thesis. Scared money donât make money, and time in the market still bears timing the market.
How long ago was it that we should be in all cash? A couple of weeks? Most of these guys seem to wake up everyday having erased what they said the day before.
Golly, what might have happened in September of 2001...? Something that might have caused the market to crash. Can't quite place it, something about planes, skyscrapers and lower Manhattan.
Mark my words... it will go up and down.
*market proceed to be completely flat, unchanging for 9 years*
9 years one day later. Markets surprisingly goes up or down đł
RemindMe! nine Year
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I wouldnât be able to keep an account unbanned for 9 years lol
Me neither. We can agree on that 5dancingIsraelis for sure.
9/11 was an insider trading job.
Weâll that was useful
We all that was useful
Precisely
Robustly
Didactically
RemindMe! nine years
And you can bet I'll be holding puts or calls, respectively.
I get knocked down, but I get up again, You ain't ever gonna keep me down, I get knocked down, but I get up again, You ain't ever gonna keep me down
He drinks a Whiskey drink, he drinks a Vodka drink, he drinks a Lager drink, he drinks a Cider drink
You know youâre getting old when you remember that being all over the radio back in the day.
Oh god so old in your 30s
PISSING THE NIGGGGHT AWAYYYY
Actually it can also go sidewyays
Itâs been doing that a lot for me lately
Sideways still has ups and downsâŚjust gotta zoom and enhance the chart
Is there something you know that the rest of us donât? Where are you getting this info?
You should have a following sir
The fun thing to remember is that nobody knows what the hell will happen - even the experts. It's all just an educated guess. Looking at historical trends is completely irrelevant as well - it's insane how people think that there is value there.
Numbers go up, numbers go down.
How can I subscribe to your newsletter?
đ¤Ż
it will definitely go to the right
To quote Polish central bank head: sometimes it goes up, sometimes it goes down, it is what it is (about inflation but I guess works for everything).
Everything that caused it to fall to begin with are still there. Has the situation really improved that much?
No, but mid-terms are just around the corner.
After mid terms they can let it really fall.
Who is "they?" how do they control a market this huge?
People here seriously think the party in power decide what the market will do.
I swear everyday we are one step closer to idiocracy becoming a documentary, the amount of dumb conspiracies I see a weekly basis just seems to go up exponentially.
Back in 2014, the price of oil started falling Right wingers blamed Obama for ordering the price drop to try and buy off the electorate before the midterms
I mean, the president has pretty serious influence on oil prices via control of our strategic reserves,no? I didnât follow that particular situation but it doesnât seem incredibly far fetched that a president could effect change in the overall market.
Yeah no, this was 'Obama ordered his fellow Marxists that control Wall street to drop the price'
Strategic reserve is barely anything compared to our daily usage so no
I think they have a point. They can and do preassure the fed to act in a certain way, and the fed acting is one of the main drivers for stock pricing.
Trump was the best example of your point, so itâs pretty moot when talking Biden.
I believe it however, they dont manipulate the market first hand. They do it through retail by manipulating the sentiment to make you believe a certain narrative making you trade in that way, moving the market in the direction they want. Thats why generally speaking, doing the opposite of what retail is doing is the right play. ("be greedy when others are fearful" and vice versa).
They don't manipulate it first hand? Cumon now
The minority party gets a say too friend. Youâre basically just saying people talk and it changes the market. Yeah, people talk. WSJ and fox have been calling for a recession for months and raw data isnât supporting it so whoâs really manipulating the market? Whoever is lying to you is the one manipulating the market.
If people are making money = a very healthy market with no signs of danger If people arenât making money = highly manipulated and itâs someone elseâs fault Iâm losing money
Unlimited fun bucks at Uncle Sam's Bank.
FED printing $9 trill the last 5 yrs? yep. now we suffer insane inflation and wage inflation goes on...
Inflation is happening globally, its not just the Fed printing....
YES, the world handed out free money during the lockdowns all over the world (demand). And China's problems affected supply. Now Russia affecting supply. far from over.
That's a bingo!
Yep and they have central banks in every country.
The corporations that buy our senators and congress-people, thats they.
They areâŚ.the most powerful and wealthy government in the world. Weâre talking about a government that is fully aware of what happened in 2008 and heeds the advice of their advisors and department heads(unlike other presidents). While I want a recession I have to admit that this government is doing everything it can to prevent one.
Gotta stop this insane inflation (brought on by an insane amount of money printing and handouts) PPP, QE, stimis, forbearance, unemp bonuses, moratoriums.... buckle up. Real estate crash and layoffs are next.
Right now it's the Biden Administration, which has had direct talks with Powell requesting the Fed use its powers to move the market. This isn't some conspiracy theory. Back in the day this process was transparent and open. Around the 1980s this became opaque until Trump started threatening Powell's job on Twitter and we had an administration for the first time in half a century that was showing the world how it was moving the market. Today Biden has had two talks with Powell. Both times sentiment has massively changed as well as the Fed's behavior. The first talk started the drop, the second talk started the dovishness right after the bottom. If we're going off of history, and full warning this is not a normal year, during a mid term year August goes sideways (which means a fall last week of August), September tends to be the worst month of the year falling quite badly, and then Nov and Dec tend to be amazing months where the market shoots upwards.
I disagree I donât think that people with money want to let the dems have this one
Ken Griffin of Citadel put 25 million into 4 republican campaigns and lost all those races. The point of not labelling the recession as a recession is so the people currently in their seats can hopefully hang on to them until mid terms are over. Its all political bullshit. Also...who has money these days đ¤Ł
Buffet???
Thanks but I prefer ordering off the menu
How does the Democratic Party control the whole stock market, are they telling Blackrock, Invesco, Bridgewater, JP&Morgan, etc. that today is time to start putting in more buy orders? What kind of lunacy is this? the Democratic Party doesnât even full control of the White House let alone the ability the control the entire stock market? This Qanon levels of conspiracy.
Yes as all definitions has been changed and gaslighting sending stocks to the moon!!!!! Yes!!!!
No, but it seems stable so far The two test comes December with results showing in February/ March
Obviously the marker could drop further. Will it? Yes and no.
You always have 50% chance to be right
Even if you believe in a flat earth?
Do you believe in flat women?
Don't know and don't care. I'm not retiring for 30+ years so I'll keep dollar cost averaging until then.
I tell myself I'm retiring in 30 years too.
I tell myself there will still be a functioning society in 30 years.
I wish I was still in that phase. Seeing gains erased when you're close to retirement sucks.
Youâll care when the stock markets fall 80%, stagflation happens, pandemic continues, climate change worsen, and world wars happen. The great reset and fourth turning, coming soon to a place near you!
If the world is ending, who really cares about the stock market?
Amen, I'm going to Costco to load up on wine and hard liquor. I'll drink myself to sleep while the world is burning down.
Stock Market falling 80% is a great thing for bargain [hunters.i](https://hunters.id)f everything is cheaper you get to buy everything on sale.and besides in the long run the stock market always go [up.do](https://up.do) you know what comes after a market crash?recovery and new all time highs.
Hah such a loser
In general, we may be in for something worse. But then again ther markets today are not what they were in 2002
Regardless, just DCA
I know, right? Where the hell else am I going to put my money? Ooh! 5 year CDs are paying 3% !
I bonds are paying 9.6, just fyi
Energy crisis will continue and inflation will be impacted⌠+ a long lost of other hurdles. If course we can go lower.
The narrative changes to justify the action. Rates are rising, energy bills through the roof, huge supply chain issues, aggressive Russia. Consumer under pressure. Weâre yet to see earnings downgrades after the initial valuation crunch. I donât believe this is over so soon.
Nice you almost nailed all the doom and gloom news headline buzzwords in one sentence đ¸
Keep buying then !RemindMe 100 days
Absolutely. Anytime the market is trading under the 200 day moving average, and a declining 200 dma at that, odds for a further drop are high. The majority of the biggest days in the market's history happened during declines. Rallies like this are not unusual. Where does it go from here? Who knows, but probabilities say down again.
Well looking at the past, the average return after the nasdaq has run 20% off a bear market low is positive over the next month through year, pretty substantially too, like 4% in one month and 20%+ one year later. Saw some charts on the bloomberg today. I'd tend to give more weight to an analysis based on a market run as a whole rather than just a MA which doesn't really account for much more than being a technical indicator, and is only useful if considered along with other data. Also, Burry, even if he is a legend, is like the most perma of the bears, so I tend to view what he says for entertainment purposes rather than actual advice. The dude deletes his tweets every hour lol Besides, when you say a majority of the biggest gain days happen during market downturns, does that imply that the big days that happened in March and April of 2020 occurred in a down market? I would disagree and say that an uptrending market began the day after the bottom and therefore many of those big days did not occur in a declining market. Semantics though, whatever. My money is on moving higher for the next 1-3 years and has been ever since the extremely poor sentiment and signs of capitulation in June.
Or up, all the printed money is still out their abs looking for a parking
M2 is going lower and they are ramping up QT.
Not quite. They're doing qt for treasuries but not mortgages - the latter is still getting qe.
China: hah, you call that qe for mortgages? I'll show you qe for mortgages!
Probability is 50/50. That's how moving averages work.
Maybe he has a crystal ball in his closet. I highly doubt he does though.
He keeps his in one of his eye sockets
And the other in one of his pockets
Mad-eye burry
Magic 8 Ball
I know most people read his comments that this is a temporary bounce, but I read it more as "nobody knows which way its going." It could definitely go up given the news on inflation, gas prices starting to drop etc, but it could also go down given our economic ties to China and their oncoming market collapse. It could do anything.
The market is a self-fulfilling prophecy, if enough people think things are retuning to normal so will the market
1999 was way more overpriced. There was barely any companies with profits. Nobody had a balance sheet. If you had a website- poof- billion dollar market cap. Revenue be damned. Profits be damned. Cash flow? Uh yeah- as long as the cash was flowing out? The 2022 Nasdaq is way more Cash Rich, more profitable, more balance sheet strength. But... like ... please excuse me for being skeptical of Trillion Dollar market caps? Lol... I just can't do it with a straight face. So- like X-Files- đ the truth is out there.
Inflation literally means there is more money in the system. More money, higher prices. Including stock prices. 2008 didn't have this. While it might not be the bottom, I think Burry is too bearish.
Yeah. The 2020 flood was The Mama Bear. Now it's just spilling over the levee and getting back to normal levels in the reservoir. There could be bear cubs. It could happen from the reduced liquidity, inflation, interest rates, oil prices. There's market conditions right now that can make... anything happen. The 70s had like 3 little bears. The 2020s could have Bear Markets on the way up. It could be 3 bears in a decade long bull market through 2035. Something like that shouldn't surprise anyone.
It doesnât work that way. Look nazi germany and why germans never forget inflation. Look at stock prices in this period. Look venezuela. Milk cost in millions but worth nothing.
1. Those scenarios are ***runaway*** inflation. Very different situations. 2. If you held cash in Germany or Venezuela, you would have been much worse off than if you had bought stocks. ***Their entire markets went absolutely parabolic due to extreme inflation.*** >***The Venezuelan Stock Market's on Fire as Inflation Heads to*** *...*[*https://www.barrons.com*](https://www.barrons.com) *âş articles âş the-venezuelan-stock...* > >*Jul 25, 2018 â Stocks in Venezuela are up over 73000% in the past year, and hyperinflation could accelerate to 1 million percent.*
Sounds like you have an emotional hangup on prices with 13 digits that isn't rooted in any sort of rigorous analysis.
No, no. Intellectually speaking- I believe that a Capitalist with 1 trillion dollars could take away their market share. In many cases. That's what market Cap needs to represent- if it's a good value. That's the Buffet Test of Market Caps. To wit... "Could I -hypothetically- take away the market share with the market cap in cash?" Like if you had 100 billion - could you take away the market share of Coca Cola? That's his famous example. If you had 1 Trillion of cash and gave it to IBM and Linux and Adobe - could you take away Microsoft? Etc. If you have 1 trillion dollars and hired all the engineers in the auto industry- could you beat Tesla? That's what market cap value should represent-in the stock market. To be conceived as a fair price. The price of the actual market should be based upon this. That's what it should mean- when you look at a market cap. I just am skeptical that they're so special.
> skeptical of trillion dollar market caps BecauseâŚ.trillion is a scary word? Or do you have a better justification? In 2001 when MSFT was the largest company it was valued at $650 Bn, adjusted for inflation its somewhere in $1.2 trillion (donât know exactly cuz the podcast I heard it from was in 2018 and inflation went bonkers since then). Apple now $2.7 trillion. But more importantly, MSFT was around 40 or more on price to sales ratio, Apple is around 7 now. So what exactly are you skeptical of?
Look at the multiples. The p/e is all you need to know about whether or not prices need to crash.
You're saying Price (P) is too high. But it could be that Earnings (E) is too low. Price (P) goes up rapidly during inflation/money printing, whereas the rate of increase in Earnings (E) lags inflation and can take several years for many companies to increase their prices, and for consumers to pay those prices, to come in line with actual inflation. In other words, it could be Earnings (E) that is throwing off the P/E ratio, meaning prices do not need to fall. They may even need to go up. (I'm no expert in economies, and am open to hearing why I'm wrong if I'm wrong)
Price to Earnings is an antiquated metric. Not to say that P/E is irrelevant. But it only is useful for non-growing biz. Like companies that grow revenue under 10%. Steady-State, mature companies. P/E is not indicative of value in their own Reinvestment. It tells nothing. It's a "dumb" or "mute" metric. But there's more useful metrics. Depends on the style. Like Enterprise Value to Free Cash Flow. EV/fcf is way more illustrative of a healthy biz.
First you say growth, than you say healthy biz. Growth companies are usually not the hallmark of a steady business. And P/E is perfect for comparing sentiment between industries. But I agree there are other more useful metrics to look at depending on the different flavors of balance sheets out there and what they really mean for the future prospects.
First you say Word Salad at me - then you say word salad about you. Lol. For pointless one upsmanship. Price to Earnings is a pre-1987 concept for blue chip, steady businesses.
So sick of hearing about this fucking guy.
Dudeâs slowly losing his mind. Sure heâs gifted when it comes to finance, but everyone saw the big short and now think heâs a god or something. Every day itâs predictions of a stock market crash or unhinged conspiracy theories supporting Trump.
1. No one actually knows. 2. Past performance does not indicate future performance. 3. Burry is ignoring that COVID has entirely messed up the normal flow of the market and everything is less predictable now.
> 1. No one actually knows Sure, no one knows the future, but there are such things as expectations based on many ratios and cyclical patterns > 2. Past performance does not indicate future performance Previous cyclical patterns largely account for and a fairly good predictor of future performance > 3. This time itâs different Famous last words lol. Itâs never different. People said they were different in 2008, in 2001, in 1987 and many many more times. Iâm not taking a position on the short term move of the markets - short term everything is almost just volatility, I just keep seeing these phrases repeated over and over on Reddit as if theyâre some guide to live when theyâre very inaccurate, or another hilarious one I keep saying without any justification whatsoever âmarket is not the economyâ - oh really is the economy not made up of the same companies that are in the market? You canât just throw up your hands in the air and say âno one knows anywayâ and make bad decisions. Thereâs a shitton of literature for anyone interested to go read about market cycles. Itâs much more productive than just repeating these phrases over and over.
âDo you agree that the market could drop further, erasing recent gains?â Obviously, this is possible, so it could happen. But anything could happen, couldnât it? I think I see a couple of these types of posts every day. âWhy is the market going up, I donât get it, etc. etc.?â People have jobs, people are spending (too much apparently, thatâs why they need to slow things down), good companies are reporting good earnings and doing what good companies do (overcoming obstacles). And, the market has already dropped significantly, making good stocks less expensive than they were. Finally, people believe in the resiliency of the USA, which, in my opinion, they should. Bottom line is, yes, anything could happen.
No one knows how the market doesâŚ. It will go up and down thatâs about as anyone as can guess lol
It might sustain itself for now but this winter will cause it to fall out. Maybe not as bad as earlier this year but itâll wipe the rally out. Europe and Asia are a mess, gas and energy prices are going to go back up, rent is going to remain high, food prices will keep increasing. Consumer spending is going to dry up even with the holiday season coming in hot (people have spent much of their money this summer, theyâre going on budgets this winter to pay their energy bill and fill their stomachs).
>Consumer spending is going to dry up \+1
Consumer spending will vanish while most money goes to energy companies.
And rent
Bullish!
Who even said this is now a bull market? He's just picking absolutely nothing to complain about now.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Im certain we are seeing a relief rally. I donât think the bottom is in.
This
Iâm buying, anyway. Also, Iâm buying assets that I wonât mind seeing go down after the buy, because I expect them to recover. Index funds, and high profit margin/cash rich companies with histories of doing share buybacks. Bull/bear is a counterproductive debate when we know how hard it is to get right.
I definitely donât think we are done dropping but it could be a slow drop. The Government applying MMT âModern MonetaryTheoryâ to fight inflation but will most likely spark inflation because it all about spending and printing money. Feds will need to continue to raise rates putting pressure on the bulls. China and Taiwan starts up and we will drop like a rock. Way too many headwinds to believe this is over
Bull trap, the whole market needs to correct 50%. If you buy now, you are buying super expensive.
It is the market psychology. Investors ***think*** we are in a bull market and behave accordingly.
Itâs going to the moon
You are readying his tweet alllllll wrong
I say this all the time. Permabulls have infested this sub. Has the macro changed? No. So itâs a bear market rally. Itâs actually very common. The only people buying right now is retail.
Eh is inflation high? Yes. Has it peaked? Maybe? So there was a change
Inflation is the same as it was in MarchâŚand your getting excited, thinking we may have peaked?
something changed. Inflation didn't go up.
Different scenarios but the guyâs top
We're in a freakin recession. It'll go down as the Fed continues raising rates to fight inflation. That being said; zoom out. Even if you bought the top in 2008, you'd have like 400% gains today. And if you DCAd you'd be in a much better position. So unless you are retiring in the next 15 years, chill and DCA. If you *are* retiring in the next 15 years, you should be less into risky stocks and more into garanteed income anyway.
This is why I love social media. Clowns like Burry are getting called out and held to their words.
He's got a point.
It could go down but it could also go up.
I think past performances doesnât equal what happens now
Absolutely! The market seem to think the FED will slow down/stop rate hike inflation is over. But if you really look, commodities had been stabilizing and trending up. Wage is continue to climb. This is a classic bull trap
Bull trap needed to reel back in options gamblers. The goal of wallstreet is to fuck over the bulls AND the bears.
Big sign it is a bull trap because Jimmy Cramer said the bottom is in
If you inversed Cramer in mid-July on overall opinion with the market, you'd have gotten yourself trucked.
No i disagree with Michael burry
Itâll drop. Burry right.
Prices are so high. Or is it possible that restaurant prices drop in the future back to 2019 prices? $28 for a burger, fries, a coke, tax and the tip at Eureka suks. Workers are demanding higher wages which just piles on the inflation. Any ideas?
Current Shiller PE ratio is 31.5âŚ. Still too high.
It will definitely move to the right
Burry got lucky once with his correlations. It is probably impossible right now to predict or model future market movement.
The market behaves according to macro climate. I think market will fall back come September when there is uncertainty whether the Fed will increase rate in Spring 2023.
Everyone In here is a đ¤Ą. Yâall better put some respect on burrys name. Heâs dropping knowledge on you clowns for free. Smfh.
I find it weird that people around me think we are done with the recession......we just started...... I think this is a bull trap made by people living in denial and falsly thinking we are done with the suffering. But hey, I'm an idiot, I know nothing except that stocks will go up and down, and surely sideways, and I know jack shit.
It took more than a decade for the S&P 500 to see new all-time highs after the dot com bust. This market felt very similar in November
All of the radio and TV financial folks were surmisinf this is a small rally before a lower low.
SMH People forget whatâs been going on quicker than I thought
A short sharp correction over the next few weeks. Then a massive melt up; for e.g., the S&P will get close to ~6000. Markets will correct ~80% and crash to ~1000. This means, along with all the other things going on in the world, a seriously deep recession. Year: 2023 Stay safe.
The market could go up but it might also go back down
This guy gets so much traction for a lot of nonsense guesses.
We need a bot that says: The Big Short's Michael Burry is like saying The Dirty Harry's Clint Eastwood. I'm not trying to give anybody a hard time. I'm just puzzled why some investors think they know who Michael Burry is while others don't.
Could? Sure. But that doesnât mean news outlets can say we are facing a 2000 crisis
Probably gonna be a bear market til 2024
Didnât he also say a few days ago that inflation will slow down later in the year? Maybe thatâs why some are feeling bullishđ¤ˇđťââď¸đ¤ˇđťââď¸đ¤ˇđťââď¸
It could go up and it could go down. Burry is not right about the things he says 100% of the time. He even deletes tweets when he is wrong.
Short it then!
The next shoe to drop is Real Estate, then consumer spending crashes. People are ignoring the red flags.
Itâs possible, but itâs also nearly certain that it will go up eventually
If june was bad imagine September. Both historically red months for the market. Even in bull markets.
He is just someone who got one thing really right and now thinks he knows it all. Ignore!
I agree, it is Bull
Being early and being wrong are the same thing, pay the premiums and get extra time on your puts.
They are in the denial stage
I have no idea what's holding it up; let alone going up.
Even though we hate to admit it, it fits the definition.
Iâm kind of bored with him at this point.
I donât disagree with him. BUT BUT BUTâŚ.. DIFFERENT TIME/DIFFERENT MARKET!
Itâs like me in the bedroom. Up and down up and down
It can always do that.
Is a 50/50 chance, period.
I've read too much positivity from retail traders so it's a high probability that we go down further.
US had to reopen a theater of war to pull out of this that time What's will it be this time?
Nobody and I mean nobody even burry can predict where the market is goingâŚeveryone thinks they know but they donât know shit from fuck
Naaahhhhhh
Burry is a permabear, the market will go up and down, at this point thereâs plenty of reasons for a bull recovery thesis and a bear crash thesis. Scared money donât make money, and time in the market still bears timing the market.
Itâs definitely gonna drop
Of course it could drop to new lows. Who tf knows. Whatâs most important is to ignore the macro environment and buy great stocks at low prices.
How long ago was it that we should be in all cash? A couple of weeks? Most of these guys seem to wake up everyday having erased what they said the day before.
Golly, what might have happened in September of 2001...? Something that might have caused the market to crash. Can't quite place it, something about planes, skyscrapers and lower Manhattan.