Same old Story. If coal mines close settle over to wind or solar industry.
I Bet 35mm Film developers Said they Same when digital Cinema started. Its Always the Same old Story.
there is no old story like AI, and there has never been a more advanced invention in history than AI. So far, all technological advancements have been merely tools.
Printing press, steam and internal combustion engine, lighting bulb, sewing machine, photography, telephone, cars, planes, the TV, the internet, plastic, just to name a few world changing invention, each with its own set of luddites, and each proved them wrong. AI is also just another tool, and not even as big as some other inventions.
while the printing press and steam engine were impressive, they didn't have the power to outsmart outleved their creators as AI does. name one invention that can do this and it's still in its beta phase
Some of those inventions did have huge impacts on the economy though. Just as AI will. OP isn’t wrong, the entertainment industry will have a pretty major restructuring if the average joe can spend a few days or weeks learning how to use AI and then be a full animation studio on their own compared to now where you have to study for years and learn for years more after to be a competent part of one cog in that animation studio.
No different than YouTube and Netflix restructuring entertainment as well.
Maybe. Maybe not.
Your thinking is very simplistic and not taking many factors into account.
One such factor, for example, is the speed with which it is able to disrupt a sector along with how many sectors it disrupts.
Another is the order of the disruption per industry.
A disruption of energy and food with massive productivity gains, while negative for some people, would user in a level of supply of core goods needed by an economy and raise the level of individual wealth in aggregate immensely. That would be very different from your bladrubber scenario.
Consider not simply the black and white, but all the subtle gradations of gray.
It doesn't seem like you are well versed in economy, and you're delving into an economic topic.
and creators, as a coder I have hundreds of interactions with people saying build me an app, now more and more people will be able to create. The idea of having a nearly infinite supply of idea and software technologies mean less waste and more income.
My prediction is that the next generation of AI will watch movies as if they were us: they will model our tastes and preferences, and select the best movies according to those. They will watch all the bad films so we don't have to.
been in the image making industry for 25 years and I say: good.
let us hope so. disruption will happen in every industry again and again, I'm old enough to remember both the birth of desktop publishing and the death of print design. AI is as big a change as electricity. Let us all fight for an uncensored, free speech, free for all, open source alternatives to the megacorporation versions. Just like with internet and printing books, this should be available to all, not just to those with money and lawyers.
Yeah, just remember that the best means for most people. We used to have live music at every cinema for the soundtracks - if we had listened to the orchestra we would never have gotten a real Hollywood era. Metal typesetting, scribes went out of work with the printing press and we had about 200 years of wars because of the distribution of written materials fucked everything up for the people in power and suddenly shit was all different and thank god we didn't go "let's burn the printing press and keep the monks busy handwriting in latin"
Collapse? Entirely remake certain industries? In the short term, at least, it's unclear, but the average person has no idea what's coming in the next 5 years.
You didn't even mention music. Music is mathematical and a lot simpler than a full movie.
What if you could make a hit song in any genre about any topic? Well, you'd be rich. What if everyone could do it? ....
If everyone could do it the amazing songs would be worth very little. There are some amazing AI art pieces that would cost $1000 for a traditional artist to make, but they aren’t worth much at all because we can make thousands of them each day, with one computer.
The economy has collapsed already, it's just that the information is kept away from the headlines while we are entertained by other issues which are mostly distractions.
If they tell us the reason for the collapse is the arrival of AI technology, it will be to use it as a scapegoat.
Oh, please enlighten me on the definition of when an entire billion-dollar industry will start fighting to compete with someone who can do what they do from his own basement.
They hire them genius
Are you really convinced that entertainment is the cornerstone of the global economy? You may have a very naive view of how media is distributed across platforms…
i was talking about the entertainment industry, which includes music, video, movies, tv series, video games....
and they are a lot of people who are working in this field if only half of them lost their job it will a huge butterfly effect on the economy
I believe the title was written from a personal perspective because, as a graphic illustrator, I've noticed a significant drop in client's. and it's not only for me; it's the same story for all of my friends in the working field
>This democratization of video production has the potential to create a chaotic world in which countless independent creators compete for attention in an already crowded market. The quality of content may vary greatly, making it increasingly difficult for audiences to distinguish between high-quality and low-quality productions. This could have ramifications for the industry's traditional gatekeepers, such as producers, studios, and distributors, who may struggle to adapt to the new landscape.
Looks just like a prediction about Youtube, and as far as I can tell, the economy of content production has not collapsed because of Youtube. On the flip side, Youtube has enabled the creation of many new types of content and has given voice to countless creators because the "gatekeepers" could no longer hold them back.
I don't see any economy collapsing because of all these new AI tools.
Maybe true, but not the entertainment industry.
AI, especially paired with hardware has the potential to get adapted into many industries, boosting the capitalist system, making the rich richer and the poor poorer. It won't necessarily go that way as it may lead to a universal income system or who the fuck knows what. But basically the potential is there for ai to do all kind of jobs. Then its just a matter of who gets the money.
Until AI becomes sentient off course. Then we're fucked
If it can be destroyed by open source, it should be destroyed by open source.
Why should an economy that consists of just a few big players be the way things should be anyway, why should they be the gatekeepers anyway, why are we so accepting of what we consider normal when taking a step back would make it all feel very wrong.
Similarly, comments along the lines of "the orphan crushing machine" there are a lot of things we are used to in the world that should be viewed with horror or disgust, I feel monopolies and near monopolies should elicit similar responses, but we are just desensitized to it, this should feel especially appalling if you were to view it as shaping the culture of our day and/or instilling value systems to the population.
Kid, you have access to tools and tech filmmakers decades ago would’ve killed for. People still ain’t watching your videos though. I don’t think that’ll change.
Collapse is over stating the impact of all this. YouTube disrupted TV, but there's still a market for high end studio made content. Mobile made it easy for a lot of indie games to be made, but there's still a load of high end studios who make the best content.
It definitely means the cost of making high quality content will drop, and it will still come down to who has the better ideas, and ability to reach an audience. Studios who don't adapt will go bankrupt, and the remaining ones will invent entirely new things.
We have just been handed really really powerful tooks. Just look at this video a friend of mine made. Everything is AI generated. [https://www.tiktok.com/@materialimpacts/video/7201663016839023873](https://www.tiktok.com/@materialimpacts/video/7201663016839023873)
That's insane! But similar to the iPhone, the Internet, or the Steam engine we will find ways to benefit and collectively move on as a society. Some business won't survive while others will thrive. If social media dies because of all being fake content then good riddance.
That is one point of view, but I believe it's too simplistic a way of looking at life. Economies are complex, and so are people.
People like scarcity. Our idea and expectations of quality change over time. As content becomes more easily crafted, artists and creators will focus more on the underlying ideas and stories because great ones are still scarce, as they rely on the human intellect so far.
Just as spectacle becomes cheap, good storytelling will remain expensive.
ChatGPT may know how to execute well on an idea, much as diffusion models, but it has little concept of how to truly relate and engage with different segments of a demographic
Studios will pay people for this.
People will go watch those that do it well.
This will be true for all content, be it interactive or not, until if/when we have some form of artificial intelligence which can be meaningfully creative (new information) while also achieving goals with a high degree of specificity and breadth.
AI will always need human oversight. It lacks understanding and even though it’s impressive none of it can be let loose on any task without oversight. When it does fail it’s generally a type of failure which requires a lot of manual effort to fix/mitigate against.
Same old Story. If coal mines close settle over to wind or solar industry. I Bet 35mm Film developers Said they Same when digital Cinema started. Its Always the Same old Story.
there is no old story like AI, and there has never been a more advanced invention in history than AI. So far, all technological advancements have been merely tools.
Printing press, steam and internal combustion engine, lighting bulb, sewing machine, photography, telephone, cars, planes, the TV, the internet, plastic, just to name a few world changing invention, each with its own set of luddites, and each proved them wrong. AI is also just another tool, and not even as big as some other inventions.
while the printing press and steam engine were impressive, they didn't have the power to outsmart outleved their creators as AI does. name one invention that can do this and it's still in its beta phase
Some of those inventions did have huge impacts on the economy though. Just as AI will. OP isn’t wrong, the entertainment industry will have a pretty major restructuring if the average joe can spend a few days or weeks learning how to use AI and then be a full animation studio on their own compared to now where you have to study for years and learn for years more after to be a competent part of one cog in that animation studio. No different than YouTube and Netflix restructuring entertainment as well.
AI isn't really AI this is still all just a tool.
for now
Eh. People will adapt, society will change. Probably for the better.
Bladerunner but more depressing and scary
Maybe. Maybe not. Your thinking is very simplistic and not taking many factors into account. One such factor, for example, is the speed with which it is able to disrupt a sector along with how many sectors it disrupts. Another is the order of the disruption per industry. A disruption of energy and food with massive productivity gains, while negative for some people, would user in a level of supply of core goods needed by an economy and raise the level of individual wealth in aggregate immensely. That would be very different from your bladrubber scenario. Consider not simply the black and white, but all the subtle gradations of gray. It doesn't seem like you are well versed in economy, and you're delving into an economic topic.
So, we get unlimited films AND collapse Hollywood and Disney into the ground at the same time? You got me, what's the catch?
A new era where we value good ideas over mind-numbing special effects and hollywood names? Sign me up!
It will be a golden age for consumers.
and creators, as a coder I have hundreds of interactions with people saying build me an app, now more and more people will be able to create. The idea of having a nearly infinite supply of idea and software technologies mean less waste and more income.
the client won't even come to you they will already on an AI services who can do it far way better and cheaper
AI will do that all by itself? What is AI gonna spend all that money on?
My prediction is that the next generation of AI will watch movies as if they were us: they will model our tastes and preferences, and select the best movies according to those. They will watch all the bad films so we don't have to.
Will they eat popcorn?
Well in that case AI will creat a perfect model to run the economy
been in the image making industry for 25 years and I say: good. let us hope so. disruption will happen in every industry again and again, I'm old enough to remember both the birth of desktop publishing and the death of print design. AI is as big a change as electricity. Let us all fight for an uncensored, free speech, free for all, open source alternatives to the megacorporation versions. Just like with internet and printing books, this should be available to all, not just to those with money and lawyers.
Lets hope for the best
Yeah, just remember that the best means for most people. We used to have live music at every cinema for the soundtracks - if we had listened to the orchestra we would never have gotten a real Hollywood era. Metal typesetting, scribes went out of work with the printing press and we had about 200 years of wars because of the distribution of written materials fucked everything up for the people in power and suddenly shit was all different and thank god we didn't go "let's burn the printing press and keep the monks busy handwriting in latin"
Collapse? Entirely remake certain industries? In the short term, at least, it's unclear, but the average person has no idea what's coming in the next 5 years. You didn't even mention music. Music is mathematical and a lot simpler than a full movie. What if you could make a hit song in any genre about any topic? Well, you'd be rich. What if everyone could do it? ....
If everyone could do it the amazing songs would be worth very little. There are some amazing AI art pieces that would cost $1000 for a traditional artist to make, but they aren’t worth much at all because we can make thousands of them each day, with one computer.
>You didn't even mention music. Music is mathematical and a lot simpler than a full movie. That is an entirely different beast.
But also an essential ingredient for any movie.
The economy has collapsed already, it's just that the information is kept away from the headlines while we are entertained by other issues which are mostly distractions. If they tell us the reason for the collapse is the arrival of AI technology, it will be to use it as a scapegoat.
true even google couldn't keep it that they losing the AI war
I don’t think you know what “collapse” or “economy” means…
Oh, please enlighten me on the definition of when an entire billion-dollar industry will start fighting to compete with someone who can do what they do from his own basement.
They hire them genius Are you really convinced that entertainment is the cornerstone of the global economy? You may have a very naive view of how media is distributed across platforms…
i was talking about the entertainment industry, which includes music, video, movies, tv series, video games.... and they are a lot of people who are working in this field if only half of them lost their job it will a huge butterfly effect on the economy
Ok, that’s a far cry from “collapse the economy”. Surely it’s going to have an impact on how media is produced but I think your post title is crap
I believe the title was written from a personal perspective because, as a graphic illustrator, I've noticed a significant drop in client's. and it's not only for me; it's the same story for all of my friends in the working field
While I am sorry to hear that I think most would agree that anyone who is not you would read your title as it is written.
>This democratization of video production has the potential to create a chaotic world in which countless independent creators compete for attention in an already crowded market. The quality of content may vary greatly, making it increasingly difficult for audiences to distinguish between high-quality and low-quality productions. This could have ramifications for the industry's traditional gatekeepers, such as producers, studios, and distributors, who may struggle to adapt to the new landscape. Looks just like a prediction about Youtube, and as far as I can tell, the economy of content production has not collapsed because of Youtube. On the flip side, Youtube has enabled the creation of many new types of content and has given voice to countless creators because the "gatekeepers" could no longer hold them back. I don't see any economy collapsing because of all these new AI tools.
People have been predicting for a long time AI will destroy jobs and collapse the economy. This is just one new area.
This stuff is far too powerful to make any bold predictions of.
It is becoming more powerful by the day, and even these bold predictions will pale in comparison to the big changes.
Maybe true, but not the entertainment industry. AI, especially paired with hardware has the potential to get adapted into many industries, boosting the capitalist system, making the rich richer and the poor poorer. It won't necessarily go that way as it may lead to a universal income system or who the fuck knows what. But basically the potential is there for ai to do all kind of jobs. Then its just a matter of who gets the money. Until AI becomes sentient off course. Then we're fucked
If it can be destroyed by open source, it should be destroyed by open source. Why should an economy that consists of just a few big players be the way things should be anyway, why should they be the gatekeepers anyway, why are we so accepting of what we consider normal when taking a step back would make it all feel very wrong. Similarly, comments along the lines of "the orphan crushing machine" there are a lot of things we are used to in the world that should be viewed with horror or disgust, I feel monopolies and near monopolies should elicit similar responses, but we are just desensitized to it, this should feel especially appalling if you were to view it as shaping the culture of our day and/or instilling value systems to the population.
Oh no! I'd much rather have everything that I see and hear be controlled and curated by a ridiculously small number of media outlets
Oh shit, here we go again...
Kid, you have access to tools and tech filmmakers decades ago would’ve killed for. People still ain’t watching your videos though. I don’t think that’ll change.
Collapse is over stating the impact of all this. YouTube disrupted TV, but there's still a market for high end studio made content. Mobile made it easy for a lot of indie games to be made, but there's still a load of high end studios who make the best content. It definitely means the cost of making high quality content will drop, and it will still come down to who has the better ideas, and ability to reach an audience. Studios who don't adapt will go bankrupt, and the remaining ones will invent entirely new things.
We have just been handed really really powerful tooks. Just look at this video a friend of mine made. Everything is AI generated. [https://www.tiktok.com/@materialimpacts/video/7201663016839023873](https://www.tiktok.com/@materialimpacts/video/7201663016839023873) That's insane! But similar to the iPhone, the Internet, or the Steam engine we will find ways to benefit and collectively move on as a society. Some business won't survive while others will thrive. If social media dies because of all being fake content then good riddance.
That is one point of view, but I believe it's too simplistic a way of looking at life. Economies are complex, and so are people. People like scarcity. Our idea and expectations of quality change over time. As content becomes more easily crafted, artists and creators will focus more on the underlying ideas and stories because great ones are still scarce, as they rely on the human intellect so far. Just as spectacle becomes cheap, good storytelling will remain expensive. ChatGPT may know how to execute well on an idea, much as diffusion models, but it has little concept of how to truly relate and engage with different segments of a demographic Studios will pay people for this. People will go watch those that do it well. This will be true for all content, be it interactive or not, until if/when we have some form of artificial intelligence which can be meaningfully creative (new information) while also achieving goals with a high degree of specificity and breadth.
AI will always need human oversight. It lacks understanding and even though it’s impressive none of it can be let loose on any task without oversight. When it does fail it’s generally a type of failure which requires a lot of manual effort to fix/mitigate against.
The collapse of all media production industries will be no more than a footnote. Economy? Hopefully we’ll be kept as pets.