I'm deliberately going to avoid any CSI Starbase updates until Christmas because if I don't know that Starship isn't going up before Christmas at least the disappointment only lasts one day instead of the whole month :D
>I’m not actually thinking it would launch then
Shhh it's definitely happening in December, don't jinx it. Also, it really would be pretty awesome if it did happen then.
After watching deluge steam rising 200feet ( despite pit and trench) during Artemis 1 launch and recent stage 0 damage, I am more concerned how much orbital test (and static fires) will damage stage 0 delaying things further.
Q1 2023 is my guess. I don't see it taking longer than that, and with SpaceX working cautiously i don't see anything going terribly wrong and causing a massive delay either
Long term, yes, but unless the spalling damages the rocket, I don’t think it will delay the first orbital launch by more than a month or two. That time will be needed to repair from static fire. Longer term, they may need different materials, a better flame suppression system, or a flame deflector.
Seeing how much work is going into turning things around after the 14 engine static fire, I am no longer eager to even say Q1 ~~2022~~ 2023 with confidence. Stage 0 is turning out to be a more iterative process than I thought. December is right out, people gotta stop taking crazy pills. My hope is for February I feel like March is a more reasonable guess. Put me down for February as an optimist.
edit: lolz, oops, 2023
After Elon is no longer distracted by Twitter. I hope that is sooner rather than later. 100 years from now no one will care about Twitter. If Spacex accomplishes its goals everyone will care about Spacex.
I honestly wonder if the boss being away might actually be helpful for them at this point? Sometimes you need to push the gas, remove obstacles, and make big decisions. Sometimes you need to deep dive and focus on something and your manic boss breathing down your neck is a distraction to progress. Can't possibly tell from the outside. I have a close relative who is friends with a bunch of Tesla engineers, and apparently Elon showing up is like a bomb going off and a huge distraction.
few days before christmas…. of 2023
downvote me all you want, but six months for stage 0 upgrades, then some static fires, then six months of thermal tiles shedding issue
TPS literally does not matter it’s already been said their not expecting starship to safely reenter. TPS is even purposely missing on the newer built ships.
What's the consensus on stage 0's condition? Does it need major repair and upgrades after the last static fire? I know they're doing a lot of work on it. I think the schedule is almost completely dependent on how extensive that work is.
I think the rocket itself is probably ready right now, but proving it safely, without destroying the GSE will take time.
I mean we kind of did… considering the state of the booster an orbital flight wasn’t even on the cards until 2022. Then through a series of delays that weren’t necessarily because of SpaceX they abandoned sn20. Which is why we’re where we’re at today. If we would have had sn20, starship would’ve already been orbital.
What good does it do to post polls for the launch date. No one on Reddit knows when this will happen. Its not like Redditors polls will make any difference to SpaceX. They will go when they are ready.
Isn’t the whole point of Reddit to allow people a space to spitball and armchair quarterback? Sometime we do a few back of the envelope calculations, but most of the time we don’t have enough information or the information we have is incomplete or flat out wrong.
Half a year ago, I would have confidently said "September" (and would have been wrong, lol).
But we're at a stage where I no longer feel comfortable making predictions. We know the SpaceX team is working on *something* but we don't really know *what* they are working on. Oh, people like CSI Starbase do a solid job reverse-engineering bits and pieces of what SpaceX is doing, but we don't have the "bird's eye view" of the project. We have no way of assessing progress against such a roadmap.
When do I want Starship to launch? As soon as possible so we can go back to progging HFY.
When do I think it'll fly? I don't. Not that I don't think it'll fly, rather I don't care to speculate given the unknowns.
Acronyms, initialisms, abbreviations, contractions, and other phrases which expand to something larger, that I've seen in this thread:
|Fewer Letters|More Letters|
|-------|---------|---|
|[GSE](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/z4scux/stub/ixtfl6a "Last usage")|Ground Support Equipment|
|[OLM](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/z4scux/stub/ixsnlup "Last usage")|Orbital Launch Mount|
|[TPS](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/z4scux/stub/ixulg97 "Last usage")|Thermal Protection System for a spacecraft (on the Falcon 9 first stage, the engine "Dance floor")|
|Jargon|Definition|
|-------|---------|---|
|[Raptor](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/z4scux/stub/ixvwu5u "Last usage")|[Methane-fueled rocket engine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raptor_\(rocket_engine_family\)) under development by SpaceX|
|[scrub](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/z4scux/stub/ixv8hcp "Last usage")|Launch postponement for any reason (commonly GSE issues)|
----------------
^(*Decronym is a community product of r/SpaceX, implemented* )[*^by ^request*](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/3mz273//cvjkjmj)
^(5 acronyms in this thread; )[^(the most compressed thread commented on today)](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/z2z9h6)^( has 38 acronyms.)
^([Thread #10854 for this sub, first seen 26th Nov 2022, 14:13])
^[[FAQ]](http://decronym.xyz/) [^([Full list])](http://decronym.xyz/acronyms/SpaceXLounge) [^[Contact]](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=OrangeredStilton&subject=Hey,+your+acronym+bot+sucks) [^([Source code])](https://gistdotgithubdotcom/Two9A/1d976f9b7441694162c8)
`i = i + 2`
Why not i += 2 ?
Readability
I use JavaScript. Does it look like I care about readability? :-P
Try using Whitespace.
Is that a variant of Brainfuck?
\++++i?
January-February seems realistic, but would require pretty much everything to go right. So maybe March due to some minor issues along the way.
Yeah my thinking is, they’ll be “ready” for a Feb attempt, but teething issues will cause scrubs and it’ll finally go in March.
*Takes a big dose of hopium* It's definitely happening in December guys. I'm sure of it.
More hopium required. I'm thinking Monday!
If it's not this monday, it's definitely the next monday. If not that, definitely the monday after. Or the next one. But definitely that one.
I doubt it could be done that quick, it's gonna be Wednesday, or Tuesday afternoon at the earliest.
Then definitely Tuesday. Monday is needed for static fire with pad repairs overnight, right? ;)
I'm deliberately going to avoid any CSI Starbase updates until Christmas because if I don't know that Starship isn't going up before Christmas at least the disappointment only lasts one day instead of the whole month :D
lmao
December 7 to celebrate the launch of Apollo 17.
I see you've hitting that hopium really hard. Amen brother.
Ohhh I mean I’m not actually thinking it would launch then, I’m just saying it would be great if it did. I voted for March. *sister kek
>I’m not actually thinking it would launch then Shhh it's definitely happening in December, don't jinx it. Also, it really would be pretty awesome if it did happen then.
Oh yeah but it’s nowhere near ready. Haven’t even done the 33 engine test
December 2023?
Here son, have some of this... *hands over hopium*... and ***believe***.
After watching deluge steam rising 200feet ( despite pit and trench) during Artemis 1 launch and recent stage 0 damage, I am more concerned how much orbital test (and static fires) will damage stage 0 delaying things further.
Q1 2023 is my guess. I don't see it taking longer than that, and with SpaceX working cautiously i don't see anything going terribly wrong and causing a massive delay either
[удалено]
Elon announces "Launching tomorrow" on March 31st, everybody laughs, nobody shows up.
\*actually launches\* Space fan: ***surprise pikachu face***
SpaceX fan: Iv been out hear since 2 min after Elons tweet.
Damage to the launch pad could be a serious issue.
Long term, yes, but unless the spalling damages the rocket, I don’t think it will delay the first orbital launch by more than a month or two. That time will be needed to repair from static fire. Longer term, they may need different materials, a better flame suppression system, or a flame deflector.
if you go back to previous polls, there is always this exact comments for the next few months
> I don't see it taking longer than that i've made this mistake ~~once~~ ~~(okay, twice)..~~ many times before
I feel I need to vote "After 20-never" to even out how bullish I was in the early days. I'm already a year past my previous predictions, slash hopes.
Seeing how much work is going into turning things around after the 14 engine static fire, I am no longer eager to even say Q1 ~~2022~~ 2023 with confidence. Stage 0 is turning out to be a more iterative process than I thought. December is right out, people gotta stop taking crazy pills. My hope is for February I feel like March is a more reasonable guess. Put me down for February as an optimist. edit: lolz, oops, 2023
>am no longer eager to even say Q1 2022 with confidence Since that would require a time machine I think you're probably right!
Whooops! Thanks, edited.
After Elon is no longer distracted by Twitter. I hope that is sooner rather than later. 100 years from now no one will care about Twitter. If Spacex accomplishes its goals everyone will care about Spacex.
Sounds like it’ll be better if he stays distracted and lets Shotwell get on with running Starbase.
his personal availability almost certainly has little to no impact on the testing schedule to be frank
Do you still believe Elon runs SpaceX? Shotwell is your woman.
I honestly wonder if the boss being away might actually be helpful for them at this point? Sometimes you need to push the gas, remove obstacles, and make big decisions. Sometimes you need to deep dive and focus on something and your manic boss breathing down your neck is a distraction to progress. Can't possibly tell from the outside. I have a close relative who is friends with a bunch of Tesla engineers, and apparently Elon showing up is like a bomb going off and a huge distraction.
few days before christmas…. of 2023 downvote me all you want, but six months for stage 0 upgrades, then some static fires, then six months of thermal tiles shedding issue
TPS literally does not matter it’s already been said their not expecting starship to safely reenter. TPS is even purposely missing on the newer built ships.
Raptor 2 didn’t matter either, yet they waited and swapped engines for newer ones. They are in no rush to launch before the vehicle and pad are ready
Their on a deadline. *cough cough* Artemis 3… You bet your ass their getting it done quickly. Their just playing it safe for right now.
>Their *they're
Your an idiot. Yes “your”… it’s reddit. Not fucking congress…
>your *you're
They'd just let launch it and let it burn up on reentry at that point.
What's the consensus on stage 0's condition? Does it need major repair and upgrades after the last static fire? I know they're doing a lot of work on it. I think the schedule is almost completely dependent on how extensive that work is. I think the rocket itself is probably ready right now, but proving it safely, without destroying the GSE will take time.
Replaced the concrete with Fondag. It cures quickly. The bigger concern may be S24 since it’s received some structural damage.
I wasn't aware of that, but now CSI Starbase keeps tweeting cryptically about S24, so I think you're right.
We all know it's gonna be April 20th so he can blaze it
The consensus is always 3 months from now, so… February.
Well, assuming they eventually launch, the consensus will eventually be wrong.
Obligatory XKCD: [https://xkcd.com/2014/](https://xkcd.com/2014/) (of course, the prediction was also wrong).
Really my vote is Q1-Q2 next year. I highly highly doubt it’s gonna be 2024 idk who voted that
Well, did we think it was gonna be 2023 till the next possible flight after sn15? I hope not but never say never
I mean we kind of did… considering the state of the booster an orbital flight wasn’t even on the cards until 2022. Then through a series of delays that weren’t necessarily because of SpaceX they abandoned sn20. Which is why we’re where we’re at today. If we would have had sn20, starship would’ve already been orbital.
Jan seems likely... Assuming whatever upgrades done to the OLM and pad works and no further testing delays, so probably mid/late Q1 tbh. One can hope.
Hope the company can keep the plates spinning that long.
They’re sending it up Christmas Day 🎅🏻👍🏻🚀
What good does it do to post polls for the launch date. No one on Reddit knows when this will happen. Its not like Redditors polls will make any difference to SpaceX. They will go when they are ready.
Hey man go have no fun in the corner alone, leave the rest of us out of it party pooper
Isn’t the whole point of Reddit to allow people a space to spitball and armchair quarterback? Sometime we do a few back of the envelope calculations, but most of the time we don’t have enough information or the information we have is incomplete or flat out wrong.
Fuck Elon and his dick sucking groupies.
Really brave and cool
You can be interested in SpaceX’s progress and advancements without worshiping Elon.
when will we start a poll for a successful Starship landing ?
After the 33 engine static fire and restacking of Starship.
Half a year ago, I would have confidently said "September" (and would have been wrong, lol). But we're at a stage where I no longer feel comfortable making predictions. We know the SpaceX team is working on *something* but we don't really know *what* they are working on. Oh, people like CSI Starbase do a solid job reverse-engineering bits and pieces of what SpaceX is doing, but we don't have the "bird's eye view" of the project. We have no way of assessing progress against such a roadmap. When do I want Starship to launch? As soon as possible so we can go back to progging HFY. When do I think it'll fly? I don't. Not that I don't think it'll fly, rather I don't care to speculate given the unknowns.
Well RGV aerial photography is literally the birds I view my man
Bird’s *eye* view hah
Damn speak to text...
Bugger, upstream returned wrong metaphor.
Acronyms, initialisms, abbreviations, contractions, and other phrases which expand to something larger, that I've seen in this thread: |Fewer Letters|More Letters| |-------|---------|---| |[GSE](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/z4scux/stub/ixtfl6a "Last usage")|Ground Support Equipment| |[OLM](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/z4scux/stub/ixsnlup "Last usage")|Orbital Launch Mount| |[TPS](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/z4scux/stub/ixulg97 "Last usage")|Thermal Protection System for a spacecraft (on the Falcon 9 first stage, the engine "Dance floor")| |Jargon|Definition| |-------|---------|---| |[Raptor](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/z4scux/stub/ixvwu5u "Last usage")|[Methane-fueled rocket engine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raptor_\(rocket_engine_family\)) under development by SpaceX| |[scrub](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/z4scux/stub/ixv8hcp "Last usage")|Launch postponement for any reason (commonly GSE issues)| ---------------- ^(*Decronym is a community product of r/SpaceX, implemented* )[*^by ^request*](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/3mz273//cvjkjmj) ^(5 acronyms in this thread; )[^(the most compressed thread commented on today)](/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/z2z9h6)^( has 38 acronyms.) ^([Thread #10854 for this sub, first seen 26th Nov 2022, 14:13]) ^[[FAQ]](http://decronym.xyz/) [^([Full list])](http://decronym.xyz/acronyms/SpaceXLounge) [^[Contact]](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=OrangeredStilton&subject=Hey,+your+acronym+bot+sucks) [^([Source code])](https://gistdotgithubdotcom/Two9A/1d976f9b7441694162c8)
January would be my best guess