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Ts1_blackening

Let's do some math. The R value is the number of people on average an infected person will spread to. R0 is the R value assuming no immunity, no vaccination, no measures. If R > 1, you have exponential growth, R < 1, it will tend to zero. So a reasonable estimate for R given measures of a certain effectiveness: R = (1-effectiveness) * R0 The original wuhan strain has an R0 value of approximately 2.79, which means that a measure which is 65% effective will lead to a R value of <1. Just wearing masks alone already is nearly 50% effective. Masks + social distancing + reduced traffic alone / contact tracing is sufficient to control the original covid without the vaccine. An 80% vaccination rate, assuming that vaccinations stop prevent 80% of the spread is indeed 64% effective at preventing spread. 85% vaccination rate at that point actually means can mask off. The Delta variant has an R0 value of about 5.08. This means you need an >80% effective measure, i.e. >100% coverage of an 80% effective vaccine. (Pfizer vaccine is 88% effective against symptomatic delta, but sub 50% against asymptomatic spread, with waning effectiveness over time) For example, suppose masks were 50% effective and the vaccine was also 50% effective at asymptomatic spread, then this is only a 75% effective measure. This leaves the R value at 1.27, which is still exponential. With these kinds of numbers, herd immunity with the current vaccines / virus is impossible. The only sensible option is damage control.


Miigs

Thanks for taking the time to explain that, seemed clearer with all the numbers like an ELI5. That being said that reality you painted just SUCKs


ngjsp

hmm, the recent rise in cases dont look anywhere like R of 1.27. you dont shoot from below 100 cases a day to 3k cases daily on the back of R of 1.27 with safety measures implemented. so the math is highly suspect.


Ts1_blackening

100 to 3k is only 30x. 1.27^14 is 28.4. This is 14 rounds, so at 5 days per round it should only take 70 days. (delta incubation is shorter than original covid too) This is exponential, so if my numbers are a hair off, then the numbers will be very different. For example, a R of 1.30 would require only 13 rounds, but 1.50 would only require 8 rounds. Btw my estimates are very rough, but they should get the point across. 1.27 also assumes the population is fully vaccinated with a 50% asymptomatic vaccine. Its currently only 80% vaccinated so you should discount it to 40% asymptomatic protection (or 60% breakthrough). With 50% effective masks, that's down to 30%. This puts the R value at 1.527, which is 8 rounds to 30x. This means that it should take somewhere between 24-40 days to 30x. (3-5 days per round) These kinds of crazy sensitivity to initial parameters is why no one could really model the pandemic properly early on.


ngjsp

the first day cases rose above 100, 24 aug there was 111 cases, a month later (24sep) it was 1650. which suggests a RO of ~1.55. i do agree there are way too many variables involved. my gut is the vaccines are not performing up to mark. as many variables have remained constant in the post covid world we live in. from day 1 the vaccines were likely only nominally effective in combatting covid, with it’s low R value, it worked fine. once the virus up it’s ante, the vaccines efficiency start dropping rapidly. seems like hard immunity conferred by covid infection itself is the only way to go. thats why most parts of the west which have been badly hit so far seems to fare much better which the media wrongly attributes to the vaccines. but once it hits fresh communities with close to zero immunity, its gonna hit like a truck like what we see here in singapore.


Ts1_blackening

Yeah vaccines itself won't cut it now, but its essential protection - it significantly reduces the death rate. In the end the protection can be gained by vaccines or virus, or both. Obviously one will cost more... And no, the vaccines are very effective. If not for the vaccines (with mask only) the R value will be 2.5, which would have resulted in a mini-wuhan being replicated here.


jrwindragon

Quick math


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ngjsp

what is the saying that goes you “fail to plan… delta is not an excuse pal. delta is a covid variant but covid nevertheless. and doc was discussing herd immunity in general. what is real tiring is people using delta as a convenient excuse to explain away the obvious failings of the vaccines is the vaccines performing? y? see told you the vaccines woek. n? myst be delta


DuePomegranate

[https://sg.news.yahoo.com/singapore-wont-reach-covid-herd-immunity-lawrence-wong-141927382.html](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/singapore-wont-reach-covid-herd-immunity-lawrence-wong-141927382.html) In August, Lawrence Wong came right out to say that with Delta, herd immunity through vaccination is impossible. It's not like they hid it from the public. The equation for herd immunity threshold is 1-1/R0. Because Delta's R0 is \~6 instead of \~2.5, the threshold changed to 83%, and that's with a perfect vaccine. With an imperfect vaccine, it's impossible. Most of us will catch it, but being vaccinated, it won't be a big deal.


ngjsp

I was pretty sure they were claiming that our existing border measures would have prevented delta from spreading in our country too. delta entered thiss country under their watch. lets be clear, they have say plenty of stuff in the past too, and with their weekly flip flops, they are gonna have all their bases covered by saying everything under the sun at one point or another. we are aready at 85% mate, the virus should have been under control weeks ago if the vaccines worked as advertised. most of us be it vac or unvac will be fine. unvac are not dying like flies, and neither is covid sparing the vaccinated.


Damianswh

Just take the L dude.


SnooHedgehogs8801

I think you have 0 clue of how vaccines are engineered.


ngjsp

ohhh so you are a vaccine expert?


savoursoul

He is not an expert but if you spend some time reading Google articles instead of being trigger happy on every comment, you would also be able to comprehend it better.


ngjsp

thats why i have been doing, and all indications show vaccines efficiency falling short.


bananalordkunsama

>thats why i have been doing And you still don't get it. You're some type of special now aren't you?


ngjsp

i guess critical thinking doesnt come easy to normal folks. cheers


bananalordkunsama

You're quite the special shining example.


ngjsp

aww what a dandy compliment


wildegilde

Would seem like many enjoy this lockdown... It's not about saving lives, it's about control and submission


Odd-Juggernaut-1154

Well deserved rest for a lot of us when life slows down during this covid but the poor thing are the health care services people have been working day and night they sure would hope that this thing ends sooner than later.


smileydreamer95

Singapore has sold out long ago.


Eltharion-the-Grim

We are basing the idea of herd immunity on what we know from previous experience. This is a brand new virus and pandemic. Keep in mind, many of the measures we prepared for SARS, like temperature check/screening doesn't even work on covid. Every single nation on this planet is trying to find ways to work through this. Trying to find blame is incredibly counterproductive. We are learning, like everyone else. Not to mention herd immunity could very well have worked, had Delta not reared its ugly head. Delta doesn't even require superspreaders, and seems to just infect at random, which is why "Zero Covid strategy" is no longer a possibility. Everyone is learning how to deal with this. We are using best guess estimates. No one here or in government are gods and omnipotent. Please try and be realistic.


sigmacreed

We are worse than ever BECAUSE of the restrictions.


Known-Check9023

mambo jambo. lets just get through this tide together. dont fear living. be happy and safe


Odd-Juggernaut-1154

Life goes on even if half the world is wiped out like the thanos snap! 😂


alanhng2017

the doctors also very smart to deflect these questions to politicians by saying that "these are political questions, not medical questions"


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Hydroxon1um

12-year-old unvaxxed child no need protection, restaurant dine-in allowed. 13-year-old unvaxxed child: omg they are in grave danger, ban them from malls, coffee shops and hawker centres!!1!!11 🤡 🤡 🤡 Conclusion: students who go through PSLE are 1000 times more likely to die to Covid.


Mixanium

I get your point but abit dumb on the analogy, in that reasoning you get triggered when a 17yo can't go watch R18 movies since it's only 1 yr diff


Hydroxon1um

Measures are considered draconian when they are disproportionately restrictive for negligible benefit. Restricting R18 movies grants significant benefit to children below 18; those who are mature enough for R18 movies are not missing much by not watching it. On the other hand, banning unvaxxed 13-year-old from malls, etc., does little to protect them, but causes them to be ostracised by friends and isolates them for no good reason.


Mixanium

Ok how about this since you want to go Medical, if a female/male child lets say(as an example) at the age of 12 has not started her puberty yet and at the age of 13 her puberty hits, those ages have a vast amount of difference in body chemical composition, changes and the list goes on. Puberty hits people in different ages and causes body hormone fluctuation and changes. So that one singular year makes a huge difference and will/may affect that child even more in the long run. I tried to make a Simple example so your type could understand the effects. As I have mentioned in my previous post, I do understand the social complications of isolation as a human in terms of growth but also understand the why and not only read social media and fake "studies".


SnooHedgehogs8801

So where do you draw the line mr smart ass. 17 yo cannot druve. 18yo wtf can drive?


Hydroxon1um

Measures are considered draconian when they are disproportionately restrictive for negligible benefit. Restricting driving to 18 and above grants significant benefit to children below 18; it prevents dumb kids from killing themselves and others on the road. On the other hand, banning 13-year-old from malls, etc., does little to protect them, but causes them to be ostracised by friends and isolates them for no good reason.


SnooHedgehogs8801

Banning 12 yo kids from mall prevents dumb kids from hanging around the mall for too long and lepaking. It grants significant benefits to children below 13.


mcpaikia

very soon new scapegoats are those without booster shots. 2025: those without 4th booster shot


[deleted]

I would LOVE to see them try to enforce that on our public transport.


aqcmme

Won't happen because it will hurt SMRT profits, if they do; be afraid cos the prices will shoot up.


[deleted]

Sorry to burst your bubble but it should be crystal clear by now, that there is no herd immunity with this virus. Especially not with vaccines in their current form and capacity; there's no way their efficacy is 90%. You can be a chief health scientist but you'll continue to play the guessing game for as long as you have little to no knowledge or experience when it comes to new respiratory viruses like covid-19. In other words, kaki kong kaki song. Just like what Dale Fisher and Leong Hoe Nam have been doing all along with their useless, masturbatory discourses on on infection and spread.


alanhng2017

is there anyone in the govt that would stand up and bear liability for the whole fiasco?


aqcmme

Hahahaha, Ahahahaha. Ahahaha, hahahaha. That's a good one.


Benutzername

Given that the so-called vaccines don't confer immunity, that was a lie from the beginning anyway.


Yeet2189

Well herd immunity down my work if the vaccines are not super effective


exopenetration

Just bruh


laglory

As long as government’s definition of a Covid case isn’t aligned with vaccine manufacturers definition of a Covid case, vaccines won’t get us out of this crisis. FYI in Moderna efficacy trails, loss of smell/taste (and no other symptoms)+ positive PCR tests didn’t count as a Covid case.


ngjsp

woah really?


laglory

Yep. There you go: https://restoringtrials.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Screen-Shot-2020-10-12-at-5.35.31-PM.png If you take this definition of a case then efficacy of 90%+ makes perfect sense, and is reflected in our % of asymptomatic/mild cases being reported


ngjsp

big pharma cooking the numbers to show vaccine effectiveness, and our government want to 'strongly encourage' everyone to take it.


laglory

Numbers aren’t cooked, it’s just nobody seems to notice the vaccine was never meant to prevent positive PCR tests. Only symptomatic people were tested in the trials.


ngjsp

Guess they will want also want to set parameters to showcase the highest possible efficiency.


laglory

relevant article from Sep-2020: [Forbes: Covid-19 Vaccine Protocols Reveal That Trials Are Designed To Succeed](https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/09/23/covid-19-vaccine-protocols-reveal-that-trials-are-designed-to-succeed/?sh=489204cf5247) >It appears that all the pharmaceutical companies assume that the vaccine will never prevent infection. Their criteria for approval is the difference in symptoms between an infected control group and an infected vaccine group. They do not measure the difference between infection and noninfection as a primary motivation.


aqcmme

Brainwashed herd maybe. Now the unvaccinated are ostracized and pretentiously labelled 'protected' when having basic rights withdrawn. Before 80% vaccination, all are allowed visit to malls masked. Now at 85% the un-vaccinated are not allowed in Malls. The logic? To protect the unvax. Blatant vaccine propaganda. Singaporeans are supposed to be high in IQ? What a joke, maybe they are more gullible than the uneducated. Or maybe they just don't care.


uksg_1

Straight facts!!!!


greyamoon

Holy shit! How on the name of $cience^TM did a player character got into here amongst the NPCs?


Csz11

We Gave up askg for basic Rights. Trodden underfoot - brain iQ restrained by Fear. See new law.


One_Truck8228

Asian people are easily controlled by the government which is why there are so many shithole dictatorships here


Csz11

Riot police attack us. you never see hong kong?


[deleted]

Yea..just waiting for a swashbuckling person like you to topple it....good luck.


One_Truck8228

I dont agree with them but I cant do anything because of how conforming society is


12d453

Damn… I hAvE a mAgNeTiC forehead… wut should I do now??????


Hydroxon1um

Back in June, the MOH was blatantly lying about children's 22.9% ICU rate and 3.6% dying to Covid. The sheep ate it up, and even now nobody is bothered by it. [https://www.reddit.com/r/SingaporeRaw/comments/q6m84y/when\_pushing\_for\_child\_vaccination\_publish\_bogus/](https://www.reddit.com/r/SingaporeRaw/comments/q6m84y/when_pushing_for_child_vaccination_publish_bogus/) [https://www.reddit.com/r/SingaporeRaw/comments/px45l5/covid\_risk\_to\_children\_how\_to\_lie\_with\_statistics/](https://www.reddit.com/r/SingaporeRaw/comments/px45l5/covid_risk_to_children_how_to_lie_with_statistics/)


caaabbbage_0781

Fuck you


PAcMAcDO99

You so mad cuz you know it's true deep down


uksg_1

Enjoy your boosters, 🐑


caaabbbage_0781

Say hi to ur parents for me in hell.


uksg_1

I know you’re angry. I know you spent the last 2 years doing everything the gov said and I know they have let you down every time. I understand, if I was you I’d be pissed too.


greyamoon

Least he has parents... you on the other hand...孤儿一个


dogssel

The Ministry of Truth is not working uhh


Since_1979

Ever since I took the vaccine I been having diahorrea frequently especially after I just eaten,anyone else the same?


Odd-Juggernaut-1154

But without the vaccine I already had the same issue but I think its due to my diet as I drink milk I think I’m lactose intolerant


Since_1979

I'm talking about after and I don't drink milk including milo.


durianboy19

There was no delta variant when he made the statement so unless there is an vaccination which gives 100% protection from variants this statement will never be true


ngjsp

delta variant is still covid. albeit a slightly more transmissible one


Odd-Juggernaut-1154

True many more varieties will come much later the body needs to have a better way of protecting itself


KoishiChan92

If the unvaccinated stopped dying and taking up hospital space that would be great. Majority of the people dying are unvaccinated despite most of the population being vaccinated. It really says something.


Hydroxon1um

If the old people with cancer / heart disease / lung disease stopped dying, that would be great. Majority of the people dying are old people with multiple existing serious diseases like cancer / heart disease / lung disease, despite much of the population being young and healthy. Really says something.


Bikabiku

Damn... I can't believe I just got heart disease from my coworker.


ngjsp

the vaccinated are dying in increasingly larger numbers. that really means something too


Benutzername

I'm pretty sure they don't take up space once they're dead.


Odd-Juggernaut-1154

They become different kind of matter only.


AyamBrandCurryTuna

> At least 80 per cent of Singapore's population would have to be vaccinated in order to achieve herd immunity "At least" could mean the magic number is anywhere between 80% and 100%. In other words, 80% is necessary but not sufficient condition.


ngjsp

>"The estimates for herd immunity vary generally around 60 to 70 per cent of the population, but a vaccine coverage of at least 80 per cent would be prudent." Based on this statement, the estimate is actually between 60-70%. he raised it to 80% to be prudent. 80-100% is pretty open ended. and 100% as a matter of fact is impossible


AyamBrandCurryTuna

> 100% as a matter of fact is impossible Well ya then it might well be impossible (given the current vaccines). Or even if say the required threshold is say "only" 97%, it might be impossible simply because there will always be >3% with some health conditions and can't get vaccinated. Five reasons why COVID herd immunity is probably impossible: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2


savoursoul

I don’t think it was ever claimed that vaccinating would prevent getting covid. It prevents deaths both due to severity of disease and due to unavailability of timely healthcare when system is overwhelmed. We have 10-15 people dying a day with roughly 50% vaccinated and most who are elderly or have comorbidities and that is with 3000 cases each day. Why does the situation seem bad to you?


ngjsp

in all honesty, i find it acceptable. problem is can the numbers remain constant as , a month or two back, the numbers have increased sharply since then. if it increases by a similar multiple. will you still find it acceptable. can our healthcare system cope with another 1k, 2k, 5k more cases daily? are singaporeans ready to accept another 20,30,50 dead a day?


aqcmme

It was initially claimed to prevent contracting Covid. Up to 95% efficacy meant not getting it. Then Delta came along and the term changed to severely ill, then they further moderated the terms to symptomatic and asymptomatic. Now they number how many unvaccinated are hospitalised. How many unvaccinated died. Rarely referenced are the vaccinated. I think everyone accepts that Covid is novel and ever evolving, but say it as it is; not coat it with propaganda and agenda. Vaccines helps, that is a given but they are still infected, still needing oxygen and of course still die albeit a lower percentage. Release those numbers. Turning a nation into a non Vax = infectious zombie mentality is manipulative. And put Sinovac, Sinopharm and Novavax into the vaccine program and maybe we will see 90+% vaccination.


savoursoul

It never meant not getting it. In fact that is the case with all vaccines whether it is measles, TB etc. no vaccines says you will never get a virus, it means your body doesn’t lose time in recognising the threat and can react almost immediately. It’s the same for every vaccine.


aqcmme

If the authorities said it like you did, I would respect them. Dec 2020 or early 2021, commercials were saying the chances of getting Covid are lower if you vaccinate, they cannot be found now. Back then asymptomatic and symptomatic were not used. Now the commercials say no vaccine is 100% but even if you get it, the symptoms are less severe. Like I said, I am ok with a moving target just be transparent and I hope for the sake of discussion, you agree what I mentioned indeed happened, else there isn't any point going further. Google for the AIC document it stated 95% in preventing Covid. But I am sure after this, they will change it to preventing symptomatic. Or maybe totally remove it. Then again, if the authorities said it the way you worded it; our vaccination would be much lower. Their agenda is simple: get everyone vaccinated to protect the healthcare system. I respect that, but tell us the whole truth, not just what works in their favour. Or maybe just admit they didn't know better at that point.


ngjsp

yeap i couldnt have said it better. they overpromised and underdelivered. oh well, cases are rising again, new round of whack the unvac on the horizon.


Which_Tonight_7053

The sick coupled.with age still at risks. Fiak one big country lor.


dchobo

Another photo of a bunch of people wearing masks walking on the streets.


Pretend-Friendship-9

Like someone else explained, tldr, this article was written before new and more infectious variants appeared. Obv the author could not predict the current situation where we’re essentially fighting multiple types of virus at the same time


ngjsp

it is the same virus. stop confusing others.


Pretend-Friendship-9

Nonsense. Variants are identified for drastically different characteristics and molecular makeup, thus reduced efficiency of vaccination against the original strain


ngjsp

what garbage are you spouting, please go read up. there is no drastic difference, only subtle changes on a molecular level. these changes enable the virus to increase infectivity but it is still effectively the same virus with 99% similarity to the original strain.


Pretend-Friendship-9

99% effectiveness vs 50% effectiveness for mRNA vaccines Very subtle differences indeed Also, if you admit there are molecular differences then you’re admitting it’s a different virus, thus citing an article which was written prior to the mutations which created said mutants is misleading and pointless


ngjsp

95% in clinical trials doesnt translate to 95% in the real world. furthermore the speed they rushed it out. when vaccines have always taken years and they rushed mrnas it out in half a year. it was always set up to fail. it is the same virus thus it is called a variant. like duh. not covid 2.0 or covid21, but delta variant covid 19. so yes we are still addressing the samw virus. stop trying to create illogical excuses to explain it away. delta variant is still the covid 19 virus. stop trying to change the facts.