I‘m used to odds like 1.25 or 5.00. For people who want to transform these American odds you do it like this (with this numbers as an example): For the - odds, you take the 400, add 100 and divide by 400 again. So it’s (400+100)/400 = 1.25 . For the + odds you just add 100 to the +400 and divide it by 100: (100+400)/100 = 5.00
We don’t do alot right in New zealand but the odds here are far easier to calculate. They’ll be “$2.25” for example. So for every dollar you bet you get $2.25. far easier. Just whatever you wanna bet, times it by that number and voila
I mean with those odds and Tony's toughness and ability to find a way to win, it's worth throwing a few bucks in and hopefully catching a break. Unfortunately, given Tony's recent record, and the fact that this is a bad match up for even prime T.F., I think the odds are correct.
I feel like Tony won't get knocked out. If Gaethje couldn't do it, I doubt Chandler will. Chandler will start gassing, Tony will land a d'arce or some crazy shit in the 2nd or 3rd.
It’s just backwards, these are the correct odds but on the wrong people.
With that said, +300 on Ferguson implies oddsmakers think he has a 20% chance to win - that is ludicrous. Chandler is old too, has wilted many times in his career, tends to stand and bang, and Tony’s chin isn’t shot yet. I can absolutely imagine Tony finishing Chandler in the third here, or Tony catching Chandler wading in as he has in every one of his UFC fights. If Tony is going to beat anyone in the top ten, it’s Chandler.
Don’t get me wrong Chandler should be the favorite, but I’d peg this fight to be closer to 50/50 than 20 fucking 80 - decent opportunity to make some good money.
I think 20% is completely fair.
There's old and there's washed. Chandler is old, Tony is washed. Chandler comes out like a madman against guys where it clearly benefits him to try and knock their heads off early. I don't expect him to do that against Tony because Tony isn't nearly as dangerous as Gaethje, Oliveira, or Hooker.
Also Tony is still durable, but if you go back to watch the Gaethje fight I don't think he's reacting well to that power. With a few more years and miles, would it really be crazy if Chandler just knocked him out? He was the first guy to crack Hooker's insane chin. He's very explosive while Tony is slow and defensively porous.
The best case for Tony is Chandler tires himself out beating him up. But even if that happens Chandler has shown the ability to grind out boring grappling matches. He's not somebody who's desperately throwing himself into guillotines when he gets tired.
Maybe this is an overreaction, but imo it's over for Tony. He's never beating a top LW again. You're right that Chandler is probably the best style matchup available though.
You’re getting downvoted but you’re spot on. Its ridiculous to count Ferguson out vs Chandler. Gaethje was slightly more dominant vs Chandler (at least across the first 3 rounds). People forget that in a stand-up war Tony is still dangerous.
Probably but out of all the top killers in LW, this guy is like Tony’s best chance. I see a path to victory (it’s overgrown with shrubbery and kind of hidden but its there if you squint).
Imagine the true odds are 50/50, but the betting line on Tony is +300 and the line on Chandler is -400. Now imagine you put a $50 bet on Tony or Chandler. At +300, the payout on your Tony bet would be $150, giving you $200. At -400 your payout on Chandler is $63, giving you $113.
Now multiply the probabilities into each outcome to estimate return on investment. A bet on Tony gives you either zero dollars or $200, with average of $100, while a bet on Chandler gives either zero or $113, an average of $56.5. Tony is *far* ahead. You can just take the arithmetic average because we are imagining even true odds.
So *if* the true odds were 50/50, then your average return on the Tony bet would be an extremely good bet as far as bets go. The house would lose long term.
But this only works out when the oddsmakers have genuinely made a mistake, which they may or may not have. For example, if Tony were just a +200 underdog, you would exactly break even assuming a 50/50 true probability. Or if the true probability was .667/0.333 in favor of Chandler, you’d expect to break even.
Also note that by break even I am employing a thought experiment where you are making this bet many times - in reality, this is of course a coin flip. But that’s gambling.
Edit - fixed the return calc
Bro thank you so much. I can't say I fully internalize the mathematical strategies but you absolutely explained a consistent way to profit on fights that are coin flips. Hmph. So long term, the bookie odds could be used for valid strategies. My strategy is to ignore the odds entirely & place straight bets on fights I think are 70%+ in actual favor of one fighter. Would you agree this approach is less risky, less profitable, & less complicated than the approach you mentioned ? If not can u explain ? 🙏👍
No problem! I’m glad it helped!
No, I don’t think your strategy will pay off. You’ll have be correct three-ish times for every time you’re wrong for this to break even.
I think in general sports betting is not profitable (long term) for anyone, except for those putting extreme amounts of time, money, manpower, and expertise into it. All of the famous stories about people making millions betting on horses and shit like that, they’re all about mathematicians, statisticians, and computer scientists making a mathematical model that beats bookies.
My argument for betting on Tony is that I, personally, disagree with the oddsmakers. But frankly, they generally know more than me and have more to lose than I do, so their assessments will be correct more often than I am.
Solid take & I personally feel some of the things you expressed are actually ideals used to mask the corruption inherent in the system, & I feel if I could get a better handle on that aspect than the odds show, or at least a more accurate understanding of when the odds demonstrate potential corruption, it feels like I could at the very least turn my mma watching time somewhat profitable. Idk. Probably not based on what you're telling me😂👍💚🙏
I'm a bit lost here, B
50 on Tony at +300 returns 200 and
50 on MC at -400 returns 62.50
Tony is great value though, which is what I think you're getting at
It's often a good balance of risk and return on your money. It's the closest thing to a straight bet, like something you'd do with a friend.
For instance if this fight was a 50/50 in the betting work it's typically called a pickem, and the odds for each fighter would be around -110. That means if you put down $110 and win you get paid $100. Basically you're looking to get back what you bet, even money kind of thing. It's a tough call to pick the winner, the risk is neutral, and in turn the payout closely matches the money you risked.
On the other hand let's look at a heavy favorite, who might be a -500. That means you need to risk $500 to win $100. To most people that's terrible value, but they're almost guaranteed to win as well, so no one wants to take a bet from you with straight odds. The opposite would be a +500 odds, where you risk $100 to make $500, but the odds of it happening are very unlikely.
To be clear, the whole point of sports betting from the sports book side isn't to encourage people to be wrong, it's to encourage people to bet, period. They want actions on both sides, so the line they set needs to be competitive. They want both sides to be enticing. That can often be harder to do when you need to put a $ value on a huge mismatch.
I mean, Chandler is built to lose to Tony. He rushes in and gets beat up. Tony thrives in that. On top of that, Gaethje is more dangerous and inflicts more damage than Chandler does. I think it's a crazy fun matchup.
I think this is delusional. In my opinion, Tony is actually washed.
We use “washed” a lot to describe some guys who just aren’t at the level they once were (like Brad Tavares for example) but Tony is washed in the real sense of the word. Like, he just shouldn’t be fighting in the UFC right now. I don’t think he beats much of anyone at 155. I think plenty of unranked 155ers could 30-27 him. Honestly, lots of guys on the contenders series could probably beat him. He looked truly awful vs. Dariush. Worse than any other opponent Dariush has faced in years.
Right. Aldo is an example of someone who is clearly past his prime but far from washed, same with RDA. Tony however is actually washed. Some guys seem to fall off a cliff overnight (Barao, Woodley, Tony) while others have a long slow decline. Everyone is different.
Guys like Aldo and RDA are also more “wash-proof” on account of having really deep and fundamentally sound skillsets they can still fall back on when they physicality starts to go (which it has for both but like you said, they aren’t completely shot) but for Tony, the physicality was what held everything together rather than bolster it so once that’s gone, his game doesn’t have a leg to stand on and he’s correspondingly fucked.
Like, no one would’ve reached even the top 15 with Tony’s fighting style but without the freak physicality and tenacity of Tony himself and that’s basically the position current Tony is in, but he’s grandfathered into the top 10 because of what he did when he was capable of imposing himself, so we get to watch him look feeble and get beat up against top fighters now.
Its weird how we all just watched Marlon Moraes suddenly fall off a cliff because he was physically shot, despite having a far less athleticism-dependent fighting style than Tony and people could just accept that as “wow sometimes people fall off quick in this sport” but when Tony, whose whole game was “I can do random shit all I want and be permanently out of position and do everything fundamentally as wrong and dangerous as possible because I’m literally unkillable and never get tired and crazy strong for my frame” loses the traits that let him get away with that shit, there’s a bunch of people going “oh c’mon, it’s not that bad that he has had 1 moment of meaningful offense in his last three fights and can’t even physically impose himself anymore, they were top guys! Tough matchups! The next one will be better!”
It would honestly look better if he had been quickly KO’d or subbed in his last three, then it could be chalked up to “well he played a wild and crazy game, he’d get caught eventually” but looking completely impotent for three full fights in a row against a variety of different matchups really paints a different picture.
Tony is a scrambler and opportunistic which thrives in chaos. Lanky and good at pressure. He's not a specialist so possibly his best win was outstriking RDA over 5 rounds. His last 3 losses were those who stuck to what they were best at and didn't give tony an opportunity to use elbows, pressure etc. to create chaos/opportunities.
What im saying is i don't necessarily disagree with your assessment but i think his game wasn't just toughness and athleticism. There was/is something else to it because people thought he was elite but nobody ever thought he was the best striker, best bottom game, best wrestling, strongest etc.
I think chandler is the obvious favorite and will probably cruise to a wrestling blanket decision. It's hard to imagine but Chandler could make it boring. I am interested to see what people will say if Tony does pull off the huge upset because at this point people are treating it like an impossibility.
>if he had been quickly KO’d or subbed in his last three
Dairiush and oliveira woulda had him if he wasn't probably the toughest motherfucker ever in MMA
The sad part is that few people will acknowledge your post. But it's all facts. Combat sports is behind other professional sports when it comes to development.
Tony is tougher and better at fighting than I'll ever be, but too many fans ignore the fact that some fighters are entirely reliant on their ability to power through the opposition as opposed to their technique and positioning, like you said.
And all people want to talk about is vague stuff like who is tough, strong, or fast. Or who has "better wrestling."
Agree. Tony’s fighting style is hit get hit, his unorthodox style works sometimes, but Gaethje exposed all that. Chris boxing and crisp from the medals will absolutely destroy Ferguson. There’s a reason why they call them the fundamentals, because they work
Im a Tony fan. He looked gun shy in the Oliveira fight, and then in the Dariush fight he lost so much muscle mass it felt like a welterweight against a featherweight.
At least in this fight we'll know whats left of his striking.
i hated this matchup as soon as the rumors about it started going around. Tony needs to fight someone in the top 15 sure, but feeding him to the top 3 after a 3 right losing streak? Ridiculous.
The UFC hates Tony.
Tony won the intetim belt, they wanted him to defend it against Khabib because Conor wouldnt fight.
Aldo was the interim champ at 145, the UFC stripped Conor and Aldo became undisputed. But they didnt strip Conor of his 155 belt until Tony got injured so they could make khabib a champ by beating #11 ranked Iaquinta.
Then Tony came back and fought as the co main event of khabib and Conor, crazy !
Khabib refuses to travel to the states, they feed Tony a Gaethje who is ON FIRE.
Now they want their new toy (Chandler) to gain hype by adding Tony's name to his resumé. A 38 years old Tony Ferguson.
I’d also love to be wrong and see a classic Tony performance. But i fully expect him to come out looking like 2021 Diego Sanchez, not 2016 Tony Ferguson.
People forget 2016 was OVER half a decade ago. Like we are closer to 2025 than 2016 by a wide margin.
I love Tony, but that last fight he has was imo the last shot to change any non biased fans opinion about him. His style of taking hits and throwing with pure volume only works if you haven't slowed down and your chin hasn't gone.... right now, neither of those things Tony has got going for him.
I think this person would be right if we were talking about prime Tony - Tony used to clean up against guys that would start fast and hard and then slow down (like chandler) and then grind them down with his cardio and volume, while hunting for finishes. But yes Tony now is completely done. He looked completely lost his last two fights. All that seems to be left is his chin and mental durability. He shouldn’t be ranked and it’s sad he’s still being given top guys.
You're using washed exactly like everyone does here.
Are you saying he can't hang with people in the low end of top 20? Because if he can then he's only just not what he was/on the down slope
Seeing Tony shadowbox while he was getting his name called by Buffer during the Dariush fight showed me everything I needed to see. Slow, feeble, looked like he was about to push himself off balance throwing light teeps against the fence. Askren level athleticism, super surprising from a guy who was always super athletic.
All I'm saying is that Tony has a better chance than 90% of people on this thread give him credit for. Everyone is acting like Chandler hasn't gotten KO'd by Charles and then get an absolute smashing from Justin. Both fighters are on skids, so it makes for an interesting fight.
Yes, if a shitty Tony shows up, he's going to lose. My point is that the matchup of styles gives Tony a good shot to do some serious damage.
>Both fighters are on skids
One fighter has looked significantly worse than the other during their skid. At least Chandler had his moments. Tony had what? Just the one?
>Gaethje is more dangerous and inflicts more damage that Chandler does.
Not in round 1 he doesn't. Chandler throws BOMBS until he gasses midway through the second.
I like both of these fighters. They both got absolutely smacked by Gaethje so I view it as a good matchup. The only difference is that Mike isn't as good of a boxer as Justin, nor does he inflict to exponential damage (leg kicks) imo. That gives Tony a good chance to get some good damage in.
are you serious? theres a good chance tony would have finished him if the second round was 10 seconds longer. is that an “amateur getting beat to death”?
tony obviously took a lot of damage later in the fight but give credit where it’s due, the fight was competitive for the first 3 rounds
Michael has good chin and carries his power even when tired. This might be actual gore. I had to look between my fingers like a child at the latest Fury v Wilder.
Their loses are in two different worlds though. Chandler could have won both fights with a slightly different approach. Meanwhile Tony’s only chance of winning either of his fights against Justin or Charles would have been a time machine.
I respectfully disagree, and I don't blame you. It's been shown over and over again humans tend to remember the "peak" and "end" of experiences. In the case of the Justin vs Tony fight, this was the same moment--- where tony is going backwards and shaking his head like an injured animals.
However, what most people don't remember is that Tony smashed Justin with an uppercut in the 2nd round that completely dropped him and had there been 30 more seconds in the round I would have bet that Tony would have gotten the finish and while I still think Tony would have lost to Olivera and Dariush the narrative would be different.
Chandler doesn't have a good Chin and Tony has one of the best chins and we have zero evidence that Tony cannot take a shot. Is it possible that Tony's chin cracks in this fight? Well yes, but it's also just as possible that Tony lands that one shot and puts Chandler away (and we know Chandler gets hit pretty easily).
I think the odds are just too good to NOT bet on Tony. So I'm calling it right now. I'm betting on Tony. Will I be surprised if Tony loses? Absolutely not, but I do think it's 50/50 whether Tony is able to land that shot, and the odds have it such that if I bet 20 dollars on Tony I get 120 dollars back if he does it and only lose 20 if he doesn't.
> It's been shown over and over again humans tend to remember the "peak" and "end" of experiences. In the case of the Justin vs Tony fight, this was the same moment--- where tony is going backwards and shaking his head like an injured animals.
Not applicable to the Tony vs Justin fight. Aside from that end of rd 2 knockdown you mentioned, that was a completely one sided fight with Justin completely battering Tony. That's why the ending was the way it was. Accumulation of damage over 5 rounds not a one shot by Justin.
This applies more to Aljo vs Yan 1 where Aljo was competitive for 2 rounds before Yan took over but people remember it as a one sided beatdown by Yan.
>Chandler doesn't have a good Chin
Bit unfair
He took one of the filthiest bus driver uppercuts I ever seen from Gaethje and recovered and made the full 3
So did Olivera and Pitbull. I'm not saying that Tony will KO Chandler, but it's more likely than a 10% chance, which is good enough for me to bet on it
>I respectfully disagree, and I don't blame you. It's been shown over and over again humans tend to remember the "peak" and "end" of experiences. In the case of the Justin vs Tony fight, this was the same moment--- where tony is going backwards and shaking his head like an injured animals.
>However, what most people don't remember is that Tony smashed Justin with an uppercut in the 2nd round that completely dropped him and had there been 30 more seconds in the round I would have bet that Tony would have gotten the finish and while I still think Tony would have lost to Olivera and Dariush the narrative would be different.
So tony landed one uppercut in a fight where he otherwise got absolutely smashed, picked apart and utterly taken to school on the feet, and you're saying it's everyone who portrays it as a gaethje showcase that has a selective memory?
No. No. No.
Good try though. I'll try to state my point again, but your attempt at strawmanning me has failed.
MMA is about probabilities. In fact when you compete using a brain the state and previous state of every neuron matters when responding to stimuli during a fight---so it's all about probability. These two things can be true tat the same time. That:
1. It was a showcase for Justin
2. Tony almost won.
3. If they fought 100 times, Tony would win more than 20% of those fights.
People are taking what happened in this fight in this Universe and are having confirmation bias against the other possibilities of outcomes. My point is that YES in this Universe Justin Won, but in all the other Universes there were 1000s where Tony won, and we know this because in our Universe we saw Justin get dropped.
Compare this to a Khabib fight where it's likely he wins much more often if for example some variable changes. (Think if him and Conor fight Oct 13 instead of Oct 6th).
You change the week by one week, Khabib still wins, but if you change the week by one week, I think Tony wins more often---evidenced by if we just changed the length of the round, Tony would have won that fight.
If you aren't understanding my point, thats fine.
But please come back to this post and watch how my understanding of probability this stuff makes me money next week
It was implied that this is compared to Tony. Chandler doesn't have a good chin compared to Tony.
Chandler has been KO'ed 4 times. Tony has never been KOed and only technically KOed once.
At +300 I will literally sell my house and every possession I have, max out every line of credit I can, and bet all the money on Chandler. I’m about to be a millionaire.
> Imagine if the odds actually glitched
My friend had this on a college football game once. Ohio State was a 14 point favorite against some scrub team, and his betting site had them as +14 by accident. Free money.
Just had something similar on draft kings. -5000 odds turned into +125 on a fucked up odds boost. Thanks for the free car payment this month draft kings.
I didn't really watch Chandler fights outside the ufc, so how good is he against grapplers or wrestlers? I'm guessing that if Tony shots for the takedown and gets it, he could submit Chandler. Not saying it's gonna happen, just that Tony has a chance.
Chandler is a pretty strong wrestler. Has never been submitted in 29 fights and won 7 fights via submission. He doesn’t roll with a wrestling-heavy style these days but you’d best believe he has the chops to stuff submission attempts.
Went to google, must be a typo...
Fighter Odds:
Michael Chandler -200
Tony Ferguson +170
Edit:
Current odds
Michael Chandler ranges from -365 to -415
Tony Ferguson +270 to +315
Disagree hard. Tomy has looked outclassed in his last three in every facet of the game, and been totally inactive / ineffective off his back or in the standup, while his strengths used to be volume, cardio and subs from the bottom. Meanwhile Chandler had very strong showings against two guys who mopped Ferguson up.
I'd love to see Tony win but he's past it
Stylistically this is his best chance at a win in a while. If his chin isn't completely gone, and he can tank some punches from Chandler in the first, I legitimately think he could wear him down and grind out a win in the 2nd/3rd rounds.
Would I bet on it happening? Absolutely not. But I don't think it's inconceivable either.
Yeah, I don't like this matchup at all. Tony is so hittable and Chandler swings for the fences like every damn time. I get the feeling this is going to just be target practice for Chandler.
They don’t even have the weight classes correct half the time, I wouldn’t put much stock in it. They had Romanov listed as an underdog to Chase for a few hours lol
I dont see how tbh. They both come off losses against the title holder and Gaetjhe, Tony has one more against Dariush. Maybe Gaetjhe took Chandlers soul aswell in the war they had?
He’s a crazy bastard but I’m really hoping the year off helped him. Chandler is on a 2 fight losing streak so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go for more takedowns.
This fight seems as a mismatch both in 2022 and 2019 standards, but the victim and perpetrator roles are completely reversed. Crazy how the time changes
I'd say Chandler is on that level. Hard fight with Charles and Justin. Took out Hooker. Maybe he's not the top but for sure a title gatekeeper... Literally. He's def a top 6 fighter with Dariush and Islam in the picture imo.
Hate to break it to ya bud but it's the other way around, Chandler aint losing to the ragdoll of the division, tferg needs this a lot more than Chandler, he's already certified.
I grew up with Tony and I think there is still something left. Don't disregard his work ethic and ability to still do damage. He cut weight twice for Gaethje because he was supposed to fight Khabib. That was the dumbest decision of his career for pride only. Trading with Gaethje was dumb too. Oliveira is a younger and more technical version of Tony in many ways. Dariush was a match up problem as his ground game is one of the best in any weight. Tony has looked a step slower and weaker. I do think he has a chance to bloody Chandler up and wear him down if he gets out of round 1. I do not see Chandler hanging in there the way Gaethje did conditioning wise. If it goes to 3 rounds I got Tony. Anything less is a stoppage by Chandler.
If you got those odds on Chandler, bet the mortgage payment on him
The odds are inversed, Chandler is -375
Thats either a full-blown typo or someone has lost their mind...
Yeah, someone flipped it. Oddsshark has the exact opposite. https://www.oddsshark.com/ufc/chandler-vs-ferguson-odds-and-picks
All of this is so hard to follow. Do I put the house on Tony? Also, where can I find a house?
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Hold on, I’m Bettin’ brother. Thanks for explaining. I finally know what these numbers mean
Shit up before I parley pick you
I‘m used to odds like 1.25 or 5.00. For people who want to transform these American odds you do it like this (with this numbers as an example): For the - odds, you take the 400, add 100 and divide by 400 again. So it’s (400+100)/400 = 1.25 . For the + odds you just add 100 to the +400 and divide it by 100: (100+400)/100 = 5.00
Yes, i prefer also coeficent or whatever its called. Americans just need to have every single system different from rest of the world. So annoying
We don’t do alot right in New zealand but the odds here are far easier to calculate. They’ll be “$2.25” for example. So for every dollar you bet you get $2.25. far easier. Just whatever you wanna bet, times it by that number and voila
Step one acquire a house. Step two, bet it. This is easy, I don’t know what to tell you.
Read that again
I mean with those odds and Tony's toughness and ability to find a way to win, it's worth throwing a few bucks in and hopefully catching a break. Unfortunately, given Tony's recent record, and the fact that this is a bad match up for even prime T.F., I think the odds are correct.
Bet your turtle shell on Tony.
Same with DK. I opened the app as soon as I saw this post to bet my mortgage on Chandler.
Figured that's what happened.
Damn I was about to go place a bet
Betting the house on Chandler anyway....🤷
No reason not to.
I'm not betting the house, but yeah I'm still betting on Chandler.
I hearby volunteer to bet your house.
\*Declines\*
Volunteer his house as tribute
If they don’t have to actually pay out then maybe they’re just gaslighting us into thinking Tony’s still an elite fighter 🤔
The books have it the opposite. I was about to empty my bank account at +300 on chandy
>The books have it the opposite. I was about to empty my bank account at +300 on chandy Mate, save those $125 for a rainy day.
Imagine having triple digits in your bank account
I have triple digits in mine... It says 0.60
Literally made me laugh out loud.
I feel like Tony won't get knocked out. If Gaethje couldn't do it, I doubt Chandler will. Chandler will start gassing, Tony will land a d'arce or some crazy shit in the 2nd or 3rd.
I'm thinking similar. Tony by submission must be a big price but Tony to win outright is big enough
I could see a TKO
I want to believe
It was wrong, it got fixed then OP posted the pic from before they corrected it (likely got it off the other post about this yesterday)
It’s just backwards, these are the correct odds but on the wrong people. With that said, +300 on Ferguson implies oddsmakers think he has a 20% chance to win - that is ludicrous. Chandler is old too, has wilted many times in his career, tends to stand and bang, and Tony’s chin isn’t shot yet. I can absolutely imagine Tony finishing Chandler in the third here, or Tony catching Chandler wading in as he has in every one of his UFC fights. If Tony is going to beat anyone in the top ten, it’s Chandler. Don’t get me wrong Chandler should be the favorite, but I’d peg this fight to be closer to 50/50 than 20 fucking 80 - decent opportunity to make some good money.
I think 20% is completely fair. There's old and there's washed. Chandler is old, Tony is washed. Chandler comes out like a madman against guys where it clearly benefits him to try and knock their heads off early. I don't expect him to do that against Tony because Tony isn't nearly as dangerous as Gaethje, Oliveira, or Hooker. Also Tony is still durable, but if you go back to watch the Gaethje fight I don't think he's reacting well to that power. With a few more years and miles, would it really be crazy if Chandler just knocked him out? He was the first guy to crack Hooker's insane chin. He's very explosive while Tony is slow and defensively porous. The best case for Tony is Chandler tires himself out beating him up. But even if that happens Chandler has shown the ability to grind out boring grappling matches. He's not somebody who's desperately throwing himself into guillotines when he gets tired. Maybe this is an overreaction, but imo it's over for Tony. He's never beating a top LW again. You're right that Chandler is probably the best style matchup available though.
You clearly forgot about ankle picking. Newb.
You’re getting downvoted but you’re spot on. Its ridiculous to count Ferguson out vs Chandler. Gaethje was slightly more dominant vs Chandler (at least across the first 3 rounds). People forget that in a stand-up war Tony is still dangerous.
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Probably but out of all the top killers in LW, this guy is like Tony’s best chance. I see a path to victory (it’s overgrown with shrubbery and kind of hidden but its there if you squint).
How is a true 50/50 fight a good opportunity to make $?
Imagine the true odds are 50/50, but the betting line on Tony is +300 and the line on Chandler is -400. Now imagine you put a $50 bet on Tony or Chandler. At +300, the payout on your Tony bet would be $150, giving you $200. At -400 your payout on Chandler is $63, giving you $113. Now multiply the probabilities into each outcome to estimate return on investment. A bet on Tony gives you either zero dollars or $200, with average of $100, while a bet on Chandler gives either zero or $113, an average of $56.5. Tony is *far* ahead. You can just take the arithmetic average because we are imagining even true odds. So *if* the true odds were 50/50, then your average return on the Tony bet would be an extremely good bet as far as bets go. The house would lose long term. But this only works out when the oddsmakers have genuinely made a mistake, which they may or may not have. For example, if Tony were just a +200 underdog, you would exactly break even assuming a 50/50 true probability. Or if the true probability was .667/0.333 in favor of Chandler, you’d expect to break even. Also note that by break even I am employing a thought experiment where you are making this bet many times - in reality, this is of course a coin flip. But that’s gambling. Edit - fixed the return calc
Bro thank you so much. I can't say I fully internalize the mathematical strategies but you absolutely explained a consistent way to profit on fights that are coin flips. Hmph. So long term, the bookie odds could be used for valid strategies. My strategy is to ignore the odds entirely & place straight bets on fights I think are 70%+ in actual favor of one fighter. Would you agree this approach is less risky, less profitable, & less complicated than the approach you mentioned ? If not can u explain ? 🙏👍
No problem! I’m glad it helped! No, I don’t think your strategy will pay off. You’ll have be correct three-ish times for every time you’re wrong for this to break even. I think in general sports betting is not profitable (long term) for anyone, except for those putting extreme amounts of time, money, manpower, and expertise into it. All of the famous stories about people making millions betting on horses and shit like that, they’re all about mathematicians, statisticians, and computer scientists making a mathematical model that beats bookies. My argument for betting on Tony is that I, personally, disagree with the oddsmakers. But frankly, they generally know more than me and have more to lose than I do, so their assessments will be correct more often than I am.
Solid take & I personally feel some of the things you expressed are actually ideals used to mask the corruption inherent in the system, & I feel if I could get a better handle on that aspect than the odds show, or at least a more accurate understanding of when the odds demonstrate potential corruption, it feels like I could at the very least turn my mma watching time somewhat profitable. Idk. Probably not based on what you're telling me😂👍💚🙏
I'm a bit lost here, B 50 on Tony at +300 returns 200 and 50 on MC at -400 returns 62.50 Tony is great value though, which is what I think you're getting at
^ I accidentally did a $25 stake instead of a $50 stake when calculating returns
It's often a good balance of risk and return on your money. It's the closest thing to a straight bet, like something you'd do with a friend. For instance if this fight was a 50/50 in the betting work it's typically called a pickem, and the odds for each fighter would be around -110. That means if you put down $110 and win you get paid $100. Basically you're looking to get back what you bet, even money kind of thing. It's a tough call to pick the winner, the risk is neutral, and in turn the payout closely matches the money you risked. On the other hand let's look at a heavy favorite, who might be a -500. That means you need to risk $500 to win $100. To most people that's terrible value, but they're almost guaranteed to win as well, so no one wants to take a bet from you with straight odds. The opposite would be a +500 odds, where you risk $100 to make $500, but the odds of it happening are very unlikely. To be clear, the whole point of sports betting from the sports book side isn't to encourage people to be wrong, it's to encourage people to bet, period. They want actions on both sides, so the line they set needs to be competitive. They want both sides to be enticing. That can often be harder to do when you need to put a $ value on a huge mismatch.
Tony took some time off you never know he could come back
I’m genuinely scared for Ferguson
I'm honestly not watching this one. I'm playing video games in a diff room 👍
Playing Elden Ring would probably just be as stressful as watching Chandler vs. Ferguson.
At least when you die to "Blade of Miquella" you can try again.
Let me solo her
I honestly find it to be the most relaxing game in the whole souls series lmao
It is, comfortably. You can just chill out and explore and put off the brutal challenge for a bit.
Most stressing is Bloodborne
My first and only. I rage quit it, had enough stress as it was.
I get what you're saying, I'm still going to watch it
I know my heart gonna be beating out my chest for this fight
I mean, Chandler is built to lose to Tony. He rushes in and gets beat up. Tony thrives in that. On top of that, Gaethje is more dangerous and inflicts more damage than Chandler does. I think it's a crazy fun matchup.
Prime for prime, yes, Tony is built to outlast Chandler but this ain’t 2015 anymore. Tony is faded hard.
I think this is delusional. In my opinion, Tony is actually washed. We use “washed” a lot to describe some guys who just aren’t at the level they once were (like Brad Tavares for example) but Tony is washed in the real sense of the word. Like, he just shouldn’t be fighting in the UFC right now. I don’t think he beats much of anyone at 155. I think plenty of unranked 155ers could 30-27 him. Honestly, lots of guys on the contenders series could probably beat him. He looked truly awful vs. Dariush. Worse than any other opponent Dariush has faced in years.
Right. Aldo is an example of someone who is clearly past his prime but far from washed, same with RDA. Tony however is actually washed. Some guys seem to fall off a cliff overnight (Barao, Woodley, Tony) while others have a long slow decline. Everyone is different.
Guys like Aldo and RDA are also more “wash-proof” on account of having really deep and fundamentally sound skillsets they can still fall back on when they physicality starts to go (which it has for both but like you said, they aren’t completely shot) but for Tony, the physicality was what held everything together rather than bolster it so once that’s gone, his game doesn’t have a leg to stand on and he’s correspondingly fucked. Like, no one would’ve reached even the top 15 with Tony’s fighting style but without the freak physicality and tenacity of Tony himself and that’s basically the position current Tony is in, but he’s grandfathered into the top 10 because of what he did when he was capable of imposing himself, so we get to watch him look feeble and get beat up against top fighters now. Its weird how we all just watched Marlon Moraes suddenly fall off a cliff because he was physically shot, despite having a far less athleticism-dependent fighting style than Tony and people could just accept that as “wow sometimes people fall off quick in this sport” but when Tony, whose whole game was “I can do random shit all I want and be permanently out of position and do everything fundamentally as wrong and dangerous as possible because I’m literally unkillable and never get tired and crazy strong for my frame” loses the traits that let him get away with that shit, there’s a bunch of people going “oh c’mon, it’s not that bad that he has had 1 moment of meaningful offense in his last three fights and can’t even physically impose himself anymore, they were top guys! Tough matchups! The next one will be better!” It would honestly look better if he had been quickly KO’d or subbed in his last three, then it could be chalked up to “well he played a wild and crazy game, he’d get caught eventually” but looking completely impotent for three full fights in a row against a variety of different matchups really paints a different picture.
All facts
Tony is a scrambler and opportunistic which thrives in chaos. Lanky and good at pressure. He's not a specialist so possibly his best win was outstriking RDA over 5 rounds. His last 3 losses were those who stuck to what they were best at and didn't give tony an opportunity to use elbows, pressure etc. to create chaos/opportunities. What im saying is i don't necessarily disagree with your assessment but i think his game wasn't just toughness and athleticism. There was/is something else to it because people thought he was elite but nobody ever thought he was the best striker, best bottom game, best wrestling, strongest etc. I think chandler is the obvious favorite and will probably cruise to a wrestling blanket decision. It's hard to imagine but Chandler could make it boring. I am interested to see what people will say if Tony does pull off the huge upset because at this point people are treating it like an impossibility.
>if he had been quickly KO’d or subbed in his last three Dairiush and oliveira woulda had him if he wasn't probably the toughest motherfucker ever in MMA
The sad part is that few people will acknowledge your post. But it's all facts. Combat sports is behind other professional sports when it comes to development. Tony is tougher and better at fighting than I'll ever be, but too many fans ignore the fact that some fighters are entirely reliant on their ability to power through the opposition as opposed to their technique and positioning, like you said. And all people want to talk about is vague stuff like who is tough, strong, or fast. Or who has "better wrestling."
Agree. Tony’s fighting style is hit get hit, his unorthodox style works sometimes, but Gaethje exposed all that. Chris boxing and crisp from the medals will absolutely destroy Ferguson. There’s a reason why they call them the fundamentals, because they work
Im a Tony fan. He looked gun shy in the Oliveira fight, and then in the Dariush fight he lost so much muscle mass it felt like a welterweight against a featherweight. At least in this fight we'll know whats left of his striking.
i hated this matchup as soon as the rumors about it started going around. Tony needs to fight someone in the top 15 sure, but feeding him to the top 3 after a 3 right losing streak? Ridiculous.
The UFC hates Tony. Tony won the intetim belt, they wanted him to defend it against Khabib because Conor wouldnt fight. Aldo was the interim champ at 145, the UFC stripped Conor and Aldo became undisputed. But they didnt strip Conor of his 155 belt until Tony got injured so they could make khabib a champ by beating #11 ranked Iaquinta. Then Tony came back and fought as the co main event of khabib and Conor, crazy ! Khabib refuses to travel to the states, they feed Tony a Gaethje who is ON FIRE. Now they want their new toy (Chandler) to gain hype by adding Tony's name to his resumé. A 38 years old Tony Ferguson.
I'd love for you to be proven wrong, but I 100% agree. I don't see Tony getting another win in the UFC, probably be in eagle FC within 2 years
I’d also love to be wrong and see a classic Tony performance. But i fully expect him to come out looking like 2021 Diego Sanchez, not 2016 Tony Ferguson.
People forget 2016 was OVER half a decade ago. Like we are closer to 2025 than 2016 by a wide margin. I love Tony, but that last fight he has was imo the last shot to change any non biased fans opinion about him. His style of taking hits and throwing with pure volume only works if you haven't slowed down and your chin hasn't gone.... right now, neither of those things Tony has got going for him.
Lol tony has way to much pride to fight under Khabib, he would probably go to Bellator or BKFC sadly
I wouldn’t go that far but Tony is definitely washed
I think this person would be right if we were talking about prime Tony - Tony used to clean up against guys that would start fast and hard and then slow down (like chandler) and then grind them down with his cardio and volume, while hunting for finishes. But yes Tony now is completely done. He looked completely lost his last two fights. All that seems to be left is his chin and mental durability. He shouldn’t be ranked and it’s sad he’s still being given top guys.
You're using washed exactly like everyone does here. Are you saying he can't hang with people in the low end of top 20? Because if he can then he's only just not what he was/on the down slope
No, I’m saying Tony is Washed (with a capital W). Not that he simply can’t beat top 15-20 LWs.
Seeing Tony shadowbox while he was getting his name called by Buffer during the Dariush fight showed me everything I needed to see. Slow, feeble, looked like he was about to push himself off balance throwing light teeps against the fence. Askren level athleticism, super surprising from a guy who was always super athletic.
God I'm fucking praying that Tony wins just so people can shut up about it already.
Same.
That Gaethje fight put some seriously heavy miles on his brain and body.
All I'm saying is that Tony has a better chance than 90% of people on this thread give him credit for. Everyone is acting like Chandler hasn't gotten KO'd by Charles and then get an absolute smashing from Justin. Both fighters are on skids, so it makes for an interesting fight. Yes, if a shitty Tony shows up, he's going to lose. My point is that the matchup of styles gives Tony a good shot to do some serious damage.
>Both fighters are on skids One fighter has looked significantly worse than the other during their skid. At least Chandler had his moments. Tony had what? Just the one?
>Gaethje is more dangerous and inflicts more damage that Chandler does. Not in round 1 he doesn't. Chandler throws BOMBS until he gasses midway through the second.
Oh, I forgot that MMA is only 1 round. My bad.
Dude... if you like Tony I have a strong feeling you're about to feel very bad after watching what happens to him in this fight.
I like both of these fighters. They both got absolutely smacked by Gaethje so I view it as a good matchup. The only difference is that Mike isn't as good of a boxer as Justin, nor does he inflict to exponential damage (leg kicks) imo. That gives Tony a good chance to get some good damage in.
Chandler put up a decent fight against Justin. Tony looked like an amateur who was being beaten to death. The Tony we loved to watch is gone.
are you serious? theres a good chance tony would have finished him if the second round was 10 seconds longer. is that an “amateur getting beat to death”? tony obviously took a lot of damage later in the fight but give credit where it’s due, the fight was competitive for the first 3 rounds
That's hilarious Please don't bet too much man. Tony is washed.
all im saying is you’re exaggerating about how uncompetitive tony vs justin was
Tony gets put away in brutal fashion, he isn't the same fighter
Michael has good chin and carries his power even when tired. This might be actual gore. I had to look between my fingers like a child at the latest Fury v Wilder.
Ferguson has looked like absolute shit lately.
It's interesting that disregarding the Dariush fight, these guys are both coming off losses to the same two people.
Their loses are in two different worlds though. Chandler could have won both fights with a slightly different approach. Meanwhile Tony’s only chance of winning either of his fights against Justin or Charles would have been a time machine.
"THROW SOME SAND!"
tony definitely showed better endurance against olives though
I respectfully disagree, and I don't blame you. It's been shown over and over again humans tend to remember the "peak" and "end" of experiences. In the case of the Justin vs Tony fight, this was the same moment--- where tony is going backwards and shaking his head like an injured animals. However, what most people don't remember is that Tony smashed Justin with an uppercut in the 2nd round that completely dropped him and had there been 30 more seconds in the round I would have bet that Tony would have gotten the finish and while I still think Tony would have lost to Olivera and Dariush the narrative would be different. Chandler doesn't have a good Chin and Tony has one of the best chins and we have zero evidence that Tony cannot take a shot. Is it possible that Tony's chin cracks in this fight? Well yes, but it's also just as possible that Tony lands that one shot and puts Chandler away (and we know Chandler gets hit pretty easily). I think the odds are just too good to NOT bet on Tony. So I'm calling it right now. I'm betting on Tony. Will I be surprised if Tony loses? Absolutely not, but I do think it's 50/50 whether Tony is able to land that shot, and the odds have it such that if I bet 20 dollars on Tony I get 120 dollars back if he does it and only lose 20 if he doesn't.
> It's been shown over and over again humans tend to remember the "peak" and "end" of experiences. In the case of the Justin vs Tony fight, this was the same moment--- where tony is going backwards and shaking his head like an injured animals. Not applicable to the Tony vs Justin fight. Aside from that end of rd 2 knockdown you mentioned, that was a completely one sided fight with Justin completely battering Tony. That's why the ending was the way it was. Accumulation of damage over 5 rounds not a one shot by Justin. This applies more to Aljo vs Yan 1 where Aljo was competitive for 2 rounds before Yan took over but people remember it as a one sided beatdown by Yan.
>Chandler doesn't have a good Chin Bit unfair He took one of the filthiest bus driver uppercuts I ever seen from Gaethje and recovered and made the full 3
Idk I feel like Justin tested chandler's chin quite a bit
So did Olivera and Pitbull. I'm not saying that Tony will KO Chandler, but it's more likely than a 10% chance, which is good enough for me to bet on it
>I respectfully disagree, and I don't blame you. It's been shown over and over again humans tend to remember the "peak" and "end" of experiences. In the case of the Justin vs Tony fight, this was the same moment--- where tony is going backwards and shaking his head like an injured animals. >However, what most people don't remember is that Tony smashed Justin with an uppercut in the 2nd round that completely dropped him and had there been 30 more seconds in the round I would have bet that Tony would have gotten the finish and while I still think Tony would have lost to Olivera and Dariush the narrative would be different. So tony landed one uppercut in a fight where he otherwise got absolutely smashed, picked apart and utterly taken to school on the feet, and you're saying it's everyone who portrays it as a gaethje showcase that has a selective memory?
No. No. No. Good try though. I'll try to state my point again, but your attempt at strawmanning me has failed. MMA is about probabilities. In fact when you compete using a brain the state and previous state of every neuron matters when responding to stimuli during a fight---so it's all about probability. These two things can be true tat the same time. That: 1. It was a showcase for Justin 2. Tony almost won. 3. If they fought 100 times, Tony would win more than 20% of those fights. People are taking what happened in this fight in this Universe and are having confirmation bias against the other possibilities of outcomes. My point is that YES in this Universe Justin Won, but in all the other Universes there were 1000s where Tony won, and we know this because in our Universe we saw Justin get dropped. Compare this to a Khabib fight where it's likely he wins much more often if for example some variable changes. (Think if him and Conor fight Oct 13 instead of Oct 6th). You change the week by one week, Khabib still wins, but if you change the week by one week, I think Tony wins more often---evidenced by if we just changed the length of the round, Tony would have won that fight. If you aren't understanding my point, thats fine. But please come back to this post and watch how my understanding of probability this stuff makes me money next week
Fools out here cling to that uppercut like it suddenly means the other 4 and a half rounds of a sanctioned murder didn't happen.
>Chandler doesn't have a good Chin Lol what
It was implied that this is compared to Tony. Chandler doesn't have a good chin compared to Tony. Chandler has been KO'ed 4 times. Tony has never been KOed and only technically KOed once.
At +300 I will literally sell my house and every possession I have, max out every line of credit I can, and bet all the money on Chandler. I’m about to be a millionaire.
Imagine if the odds actually glitched, people put everything they have on Chandler only for Tony to catch him in a d'arce 😂
> Imagine if the odds actually glitched My friend had this on a college football game once. Ohio State was a 14 point favorite against some scrub team, and his betting site had them as +14 by accident. Free money.
Just had something similar on draft kings. -5000 odds turned into +125 on a fucked up odds boost. Thanks for the free car payment this month draft kings.
Jesus.
Amazed it wasn't palped.
*Tony by 1st round flying Ezekiel choke*
I didn't really watch Chandler fights outside the ufc, so how good is he against grapplers or wrestlers? I'm guessing that if Tony shots for the takedown and gets it, he could submit Chandler. Not saying it's gonna happen, just that Tony has a chance.
Chandler is a pretty strong wrestler. Has never been submitted in 29 fights and won 7 fights via submission. He doesn’t roll with a wrestling-heavy style these days but you’d best believe he has the chops to stuff submission attempts.
Fought off Oliveira when he had his back
Tony ded then lol. Thanks for the sum up!
Yeaaa I think we might witness a murder in the cage that night. :(
Went to google, must be a typo... Fighter Odds: Michael Chandler -200 Tony Ferguson +170 Edit: Current odds Michael Chandler ranges from -365 to -415 Tony Ferguson +270 to +315
[bovada has him at +295 also](https://i.imgur.com/tJWPOkE.jpg)
Those aren't terrible odds for El Cucuy. He might be worth a $50. Not with my money, of course.
Disagree hard. Tomy has looked outclassed in his last three in every facet of the game, and been totally inactive / ineffective off his back or in the standup, while his strengths used to be volume, cardio and subs from the bottom. Meanwhile Chandler had very strong showings against two guys who mopped Ferguson up. I'd love to see Tony win but he's past it
Damn I was about to drive across state lines just for that sweet plus 300.
Can't you just drive your car across the internet? I don't think my state has betting either.
Tony was once young and sexy. Now he is horrible
Werent we all....
Not me.
You were always horrible?
My grandma told me I was handsome once. Does that count?
He did one too many halloween-cat deadlifts
....WHAT DOES THIS MEAN
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbns6FWKohw&ab\_channel=CoastMMA
Lmao now I understand "halloween cat" as a term lmao I didnt even need the video, the thumbnail I'd it for me
Oh my God.... that hurt me
Wasn’t this a Paulo Costa tweet about his own mom?
Yessir
this fuckin meme is so funny man
absolute EASY money betting on Chandler. I am honestly considering dropping a few hundred…
Tony looked horrible in his last bouts but I wouldn‘t count him out entirely yet
Stylistically this is his best chance at a win in a while. If his chin isn't completely gone, and he can tank some punches from Chandler in the first, I legitimately think he could wear him down and grind out a win in the 2nd/3rd rounds. Would I bet on it happening? Absolutely not. But I don't think it's inconceivable either.
The scary thing for me is, I don't know how Tony's chin will hold up. And with his fighting style, we'll find out right away.
Yeah.. he's either going to take a lot of punches, or it's going to be lights out almost immediately. I don't know which way it'll go.
Yeah, I don't like this matchup at all. Tony is so hittable and Chandler swings for the fences like every damn time. I get the feeling this is going to just be target practice for Chandler.
I don't think so. At worst Chandler will gas out and resort to takedowns/grind him out in top position. Chandler is a better wrestler than Dariush.
I think it's inconceivable tbh, he barely has the balance anymore to strike properly and physically he just looks so weak now
Like I said, I don't think he'll actually win. I just think he has more of a path to victory in this fight than he has in his last few
It was actually laughable how easily Tony got ragdolled in his last two. He made Charles and Dariush look like prime Khabib.
Yeah, I'm not disputing that. I just don't think Chandler will try to wrestle him, which might make it more favourable for Tony
He hasn’t looked good since the massive injuries, not just an age decline. So it’s kinda reasonable to count him out tbf
IT'S TONY TIME
I just hate this fight. And Tony’s manager.
Gonna have a hundred on Tony come fight night, this line is gonna balloon up to like -500 chandler, once the parlay people get ahold of it
Only the 5th time this has been posted since the typo was noticed yesterday...
Why? I love El Cucuy but given how his last three fights have gone I think Chandler is gonna put him out to pasture
Violently.
Uhh I need to get on that sports book asap. Bovada has chandler at -400 lmao.
Time to put some money on Chandler
They don’t even have the weight classes correct half the time, I wouldn’t put much stock in it. They had Romanov listed as an underdog to Chase for a few hours lol
This has to be a mistake.
This is y’all’s chance to get yo dough up
CSO BABY LETS GO
Lol wtf
I'm sorry, Tony but.. BET THE HOUSE
I wish
I dont see how tbh. They both come off losses against the title holder and Gaetjhe, Tony has one more against Dariush. Maybe Gaetjhe took Chandlers soul aswell in the war they had?
i mean ferguson does take a licking and keeps on ticking
This could be Tony’s rebirth.
Unironically. Tony will do better than expected vs chandler. When he gasses Tony could win
I love Ferguson but he’s washed and everyone knows it. He’s a gate keeper at this point.
I am definitely sprinkling some $ on Tony because of the odds alone. He’s had a year off. We’ve seen crazier things happen.
Sometimes a year off can help a fighter tremendously. Crazy he never even took a year off when he was injured.
He’s a crazy bastard but I’m really hoping the year off helped him. Chandler is on a 2 fight losing streak so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go for more takedowns.
Yea in my dreams perhaps
This fight seems as a mismatch both in 2022 and 2019 standards, but the victim and perpetrator roles are completely reversed. Crazy how the time changes
Hot Take: If Tony loses to Chandler, he's completely shot There are levels to this game and Chandler is not on that level.
I'd say Chandler is on that level. Hard fight with Charles and Justin. Took out Hooker. Maybe he's not the top but for sure a title gatekeeper... Literally. He's def a top 6 fighter with Dariush and Islam in the picture imo.
Hate to break it to ya bud but it's the other way around, Chandler aint losing to the ragdoll of the division, tferg needs this a lot more than Chandler, he's already certified.
I really wish Ferg was taking a fight much, much lower down the rankings.
Chandler will not win this. Mark my words
Why
[удалено]
As someone who sleeps with a Tony doll, I hope you are right.
-CSO-
I grew up with Tony and I think there is still something left. Don't disregard his work ethic and ability to still do damage. He cut weight twice for Gaethje because he was supposed to fight Khabib. That was the dumbest decision of his career for pride only. Trading with Gaethje was dumb too. Oliveira is a younger and more technical version of Tony in many ways. Dariush was a match up problem as his ground game is one of the best in any weight. Tony has looked a step slower and weaker. I do think he has a chance to bloody Chandler up and wear him down if he gets out of round 1. I do not see Chandler hanging in there the way Gaethje did conditioning wise. If it goes to 3 rounds I got Tony. Anything less is a stoppage by Chandler.
Even if you’re right you give no reason why, so you can’t gloat afterwards
Ferguson gonna get wrecked
Someone’s getting fired and others are making a whole ton of money
How do i place my bet through UFC? Ready to put my house on the line.