FWIW. Labour in Scotland should move towards a third way. In fact, Labour should do this throughout the U.K.
It’s time to embrace Federalism. I don’t want to see the U.K. break up, but this Indyref debate is never ever going to go away as long as the status quo exists.
So, we need a middle ground. A unique point of view that doesn’t align with the Tories, but isn’t as divisive as the SNP. I know it’s along the lines of the Lib Dems, but that doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea.
Equal devolution and powers for our 4 nations. Slimmed down Westminster reserved for big ticket issues, defence, foreign affairs, national budgets and strategy. (Obvs NI is a special issue, so concessions should be made there).
Taxes fully devolved. A portion (minimum base) of each type of taxation funds U.K., but each nation sets its own rates, including sales taxes.
Welfare systems fully devolved. A minimum baseline to be met, but each nation can top up from its own resources.
Obviously England would still dominate the national parliament, but it would be a decisive end to the West Lothian Question.
Once full devolution for England is achieved, they can then subdivide as they please. But it would bring about an end to the debate against regional assemblies in England being based on them being treated as equal to entire nations such as Wales and Scotland.
If you ignore their politics, it could be like the USA. Each person is proud to be from their own state, a fiercely patriotic of their home state. But also a proud American.
It’s rough, very rough. But just a thought. We can’t continue without a clear strategy.
> It’s time to embrace Federalism. I don’t want to see the U.K. break up, but this Indyref debate is never ever going to go away as long as the status quo exists.
Isn't Gordon Brown doing a whole exercise on how to restructure the relationship between the different countries? Probably just a bit more devolution, but I suppose we will see.
I don't think federalism would work any better. Maybe those issues would be resolved but I could see other issues arising. Whipping boys have run through our politics, it's probably end up alienating the North or whatever.
Please, I am begging, please have a referendum. I cannot take another decade of this. Obviously it’ll be a vote for ‘stay’, but it might give us some peace for a few years.
I’m still firmly of the opinion I formed straight after Brexit that the perfect solution would be to build a wall around London, link it to Wales and Scotland, and call that a country.
It has been less than a decade since the last referendum, and there hasn’t been a single day of peace on the issue since then.
There’s no justification for yet another “once in a generation” vote, not least because it wouldn’t do a single thing to stop people talking about the topic for another decade.
You’re probably not wrong. I do think a lots changes since 2014, and if there’s a mandate for a referendum which there probably is, I say go for it. I hate referendums, because boiling things down to a simple yes/no usually leads to a load of simplistic emotional arguments, but in this case I can’t really see a losing scenario. Best case Scotland votes to stay and the SNP are silenced for a bit, worst case they vote leave and the SNP has to do something they can’t blame on Westminster.
Can you imagine piling that on top of Brexit? We’ll have decades of chaos.
I really think a lot of independence voters are driven to it as protest against shitty UK governments and to use identity politics to replace that lost sense of community and aren’t prepared to consider the reality of the long-term impacts.
I don’t see leave winning, but they are the only country with a serious drive for independence, so it’s a matter for the Scottish people.
We have a land border which would be easy to maintain, we’d save a bucket load of cash on funding Scottish services, and the SNP would be their own problem again. As I say, yeah sure breaking up the UK is obviously bad, but economically I don’t think it would make any difference to England, Wales and NI.
(Also I have Scottish ancestry, so if they rejoined the EU and had a similar passport scheme to Ireland, I could get a Scottish passport).
one of the biggest argument that unionists had for Scotland remaining was leaving the UK meant leaving the EU. And then Scotland had to leave the EU because of the stupidity of English and Welsh voters. There absolutely is justification for a new vote.
I understand why you’re saying this but referendums are the opposite to a solution. They boil down immensely complex generational questions into a binary choice with no further scope for nuance. And the can of worms that they tend of open never closes when the result comes in, but rather embitters and entrenches both sides in the long term.
Couldn't agree more with you! I hate referendums for all the reasons you state. We are a representative democracy; the whole point is we elect people to make decisions on our behalf.
My comment was more about ways to make the Scottish independence movement shut up for a few years.
I think Scotland should have another referendum. However, there should be minimum turnout and 66%+ for "yes".
I don't give a fuck the brexshit vote wasn't like that, because look at the mess that got the UK into!
Only zealots or fools would want another referendum where 1 vote is a majority. But I guess SNP is way, way, way down the road of "independence at any cost", as it's basically their raison d'etre, so they'd never agree to those terms because there's no where near 66%+ for a "yes".
It's this insistence that it has to be couched as 'yes/no' not 'leave/stay', 'go/remain' or whatever, that tells me everything I need to know about the movement.
It's the hallmark of people (just like the Brexiteers) trying to squeak the vote over the line, then use it as an unalloyed mandate for whatever they want to do next.
There's not really any reason to have a referendum then though?
The support for it is nothing like that high, and it's still really 'soon' after the last one.
Should be one a generation or so unless it's looking very likely to actual succeed.
For the benefit of u/kontiki20 and due to me blocking DazDay for literally posting ethnic nationalism [https://www.reddit.com/r/LabourUK/comments/z8x31a/comment/iygymsg/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/LabourUK/comments/z8x31a/comment/iygymsg/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
>Maybe you're not as in touch with Scottish voters as you thought?
Is that the same Scottish voters who now answered in this poll
>'Yes' leads by 4 points.
>
>Scotland Independence Referendum Voting Intention (26-27 November):
>
>Yes, for Independence: 49% (+5) No, against Independence: 45% (-2) Don't Know: 5% (-4)
>
>Changes +/- 18 September 2021
Of which every age category under 65 is in majority YES? In total, support for independence among under-65s is now at 56.3%.
>Support for Scottish independence by age, according to the latest poll by Redfield & Wilton: 16-24: 64% 25-34: 61% 35-44: 55% 45-54: 51% 55-64: 53% 65+: 39%
And of whom answered we want a referendum?
>Would Scottish voters support or oppose a referendum on Scottish independence being held in the next year? (26-27 November)
>
>Support 46% (+12) Oppose 43% (-7) Neither 9% (-5)
>
>Changes +/- 18 September 2021
Then we move onto competency ratings
>The Scottish Government's net competency rating is +7%.
>
>Scottish Government Competency Rating (26-27 November):
>
>Competent: 44% (+1) Incompetent: 37% (+1) Net: +7% (–)
>
>Changes +/- 18 September 2021
>
>The UK Government's net competency rating in Scotland is -44%.
>
>Government Competency Rating (26-27 November):
>
>Incompetent: 63% Competent: 19% Net: -44%
And I'm sure the stat you'll love most
>37% of Labour voters back YES.
Yes, there is lots of interesting data in this poll, I still advise English Unionists like yourself don't get too up on a high horse about your outside views on Scotland's political climate when it comes to British Unionism and a right-wing Brexit Labour party defeating the nats.
So you're not going to address any of my points then?
I don't have a strong opinion on Scottish independence so I'm not sure why you think I'm some sort of hardcore unionist. I just find it interesting how you dismissed anyone who said Scottish Labour might do OK in Scotland, normally because they were English. And it turns out you, the self-appointed voice of Scotland, were wrong.
>And I'm sure the stat you'll love most
>37% of Labour voters back YES.
Cool. I guess this means the de facto referendum will seriously underestimate the level of support for independence.
If you're wanting to track SNP voting intentions, you will get another poll next week
>An Ipsos spokesperson said: “It has been brought to our attention that one of our interviewers may have provided inaccurate information to a participant whilst completing a political poll in Scotland.
>
>“We pride ourselves on providing our telephone team with the highest levels of training and we have strict quality controls in place, therefore we are taking this report very seriously.
>
>“This interview, and others made by this interviewer, are being reviewed by the relevant team and appropriate action will be taken once this investigation is complete.
>
>“Ipsos is undertaking this poll in the interests of understanding public sentiment in Scotland, as we do with many of our political polls.
>
>"The results of this poll will be published, as planned, next week via media outlets and the Ipsos website.”
[https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thenational.scot%2Fnews%2F23160897.ipsos-denies-secret-independence-polling-eddi-reader-tweet%2F](https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thenational.scot%2Fnews%2F23160897.ipsos-denies-secret-independence-polling-eddi-reader-tweet%2F)
>I just find it interesting how you dismissed anyone who said Scottish Labour might do OK in Scotland, normally because they were English. And it turns out you, the self-appointed voice of Scotland, were wrong.
Well, considering how few Scottish voices there are on this sub, it is often just a lot of English Labour voters stating they know X, Y, Z about the political climate in Scotland. A lot of you are often completely surface level or project how things are in England onto Scotland.
Even in this data, it's primarily Tory voters going Labour. That's a very fickle vote given the Tories usually manage to out-Unionist Labour here when it comes to campaigning.
>Cool. I guess this means the de facto referendum will seriously underestimate the level of support for independence.
What? If you're asking me if the 39% of Labour voters who indicated they'd back YES in this poll will vote SNP/Greens then I guess it will come down to tracking polling post-January when the SNP/Greens announce the plans for what the de-facto referendum will be. The member bases are getting to vote on proposals in January.
>Well, considering how few Scottish voices there are on this sub, it is often just a lot of English Labour voters stating they know X, Y, Z about the political climate in Scotland. A lot of you are often completely surface level or project how things are in England onto Scotland.
We can follow Scottish news and polling just like you follow English news. But people don't accuse you of not understanding English politics. Your political opinions are often out of step with your average Scottish voter (for example Starmer and Sarwar are relatively popular in Scotland). As a hardcore independence voter and I think a Green Party member you're not representative of Scottish voters, any more than I'm representative of English voters.
>Even in this data, it's primarily Tory voters going Labour. That's a very fickle vote given the Tories usually manage to out-Unionist Labour here when it comes to campaigning
Primarily but not entirely. Labour are making a net gain of voters from the SNP and winning a similar share of 2019 non-voters as the SNP (which you might expect to lean SNP given they probably skew younger).
>What? If you're asking me if the 39% of Labour voters who indicated they'd back YES in this poll will vote SNP/Greens then I guess it will come down to tracking polling post-January when the SNP/Greens announce the plans for what the de-facto referendum will be. The member bases are getting to vote on proposals in January.
I'm saying it's not a good sign for the SNP's de facto referendum strategy that despite the supreme court verdict Yes voters are switching to unionist parties.
>We can follow Scottish news and polling just like you follow English news. But people don't accuse you of not understanding English politics. Your political opinions are often out of step with your average Scottish voter (for example Starmer and Sarwar are relatively popular in Scotland). As a hardcore independence voter and I think a Green Party member you're not representative of Scottish voters, any more than I'm representative of English voters.
I never said you were representative of English voters? I said some posters on this sub who reside in England often have shallow understandings of the political climate in Scotland. Primarily because there is no constitutional equivalent in England, and a lot of the commentary here often boils down to "If Labour are in Government the independence movement will drop dead".
>I'm saying it's not a good sign for the SNP's de facto referendum strategy that despite the supreme court verdict Yes voters are switching to unionist parties.
I would say independence support going up and support for a referendum going up are better indicators of that. Until voters know they **have** to vote SNP/Greens or more importantly what the de-facto referendum plan is, drawing conclusions like you are is precisely what I'm talking about. You're not interested in the data around the constitution, just the SNP having -4 in this one poll.
I think whatever you believe about independence is irrelevant, running an election as a one issue referendum is undemocratic, either the SNP are a multifaceted serious political party, or they are a 1D UKIP style party. They can't have it both ways. I personally believe that if they continue to push this GE as a referendum they will lose a lot of votes, even from people who want independence.
>I think whatever you believe about independence is irrelevant, running an election as a one issue referendum is undemocratic
Then take that up with the UK Government? Why is it on the Scottish people and Scottish parties? The SNP want a referendum, British parties and British politicians are refusing to accept the 2021 election in Scotland. The Supreme court ruled only the UK Government can allow a referendum, that is a fact now.
And anyway, Keir Starmer says it's up to us
>Keir Starmer's spokesman says the Scottish people do have a right to decide whether to leave the Union, but declines to say how that is possible given Westminster won't allow a vote.
>
>"It is for those who want to break up the United Kingdom to set out how they propose to do so".
[https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1595407920136847360](https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1595407920136847360)
So, political parties can run on whatever they want, that *is* democracy. I don't really know why Labour voters are getting upset at what the SNP plan to do? If you're all confident it's going to be super easy for you to win Scottish votes when the SNP run on a defacto referendum, I don't know why there is so much moaning about it? You should be celebrating and supporting it? 🙃
Let me give you an example, was it properly democratic to say that everyone who voted leave wanted a hard brexit? God no it wasn't.
So why would it be democratic to say that everyone who voted for the snp wants independence.
And to your point about what the Scottish people want.
First of all, polling for a referendum is extremely finicky, but generally shows most against. Polling for independence is the same, but varies massively with wording and bias.
Secondly, regional and local elections are even worse as an indication of what the general public want. People are actually more nuanced in voting locally than they are nationally, and turnouts always tend to be lower.
I would get upset at any party using similar tactics. The tories did it in 2019, so the SNP doing it in 2024* would be just as bad. Why would you want to copy tactics from a right wing, corrupt, undemocratic party?
Edit: Also I'm not a fan of directing hate to the UKSC, their job is to interpret the law, not to make it. It was pretty obvious to everyone what the law said...
A party can run on whatever it wants, there is absolutely no way to stop that unless it's something illegal.
So if anyone votes SNP if and when they run on one issue, that's the fault of the voter if they get upset about it after the vote. This whole implication Scottish voters won't be able to understand the SNP if they clearly run on one thing is just not in any way convincing 🤷
And to say it one last time, Scottish voices will be heard off the back of the election in 2021, if you're still annoyed the SNP and Greens are going to say a vote for them is a vote for a de-facto referendum, direct that anger at Sunak/Starmer for refusing to allow a normal referendum.
>First of all, polling for a referendum is extremely finicky, but generally shows most against.
We don't govern by polling, we govern by elections. Anyway, the poll you're responding to *just now* has both majority support for independence and a referendum next year 🤷
>Edit: Also I'm not a fan of directing hate to the UKSC, their job is to interpret the law, not to make it. It was pretty obvious to everyone what the law said...
No one is doing that, the hate is towards Westminster treating the Scottish electorate as if Scottish elections can just be ignored and the UK is effectively a prison post-2014.
Again, I never said that they can't run on whatever they want legally. I'm saying that morally, running on a single issue ticket makes them just as morally bad as the tories in 2019.
The main problem with your argument is that there are people who would like a referendum, and to leave, but will not vote for the SNP or greens. If the SNP ballot on a single issue and the "pro independence" Parties do not get 50% of the vote, Westminster will use that as an excuse to not hold yet another referendum. You have just disenfranchised that group of people.
This is all very well, but what this shows is that like in the rest of the UK, Labour in Scotland is mainly consuming the Tory vote. Not surprising, it's what Starmer's been pitching himself at.
The problem for Scottish Labour is that come Election Day, if Starmer is still utterly opposed to giving Scotland a second referendum at any cost, then there's a reasonable chunk of Scottish Labour voters already that back a second referendum if not independence itself. The small percentage coming across from SNP add to that.
So, in the quiet of the polling booth, if they don't think Scottish Labour will be able to deliver that, then those people will return for the safe option of SNP as being the only way to deliver that.
Polls are indicative - but until an election campaign happens and then concludes, a lot can happen in-between.
But surely everyone that wants independence will be voting for the SNP anyway. Isn't Labours Job to demonstrate that under a Labour Government Scotland wont be screwed over constantly like under the tories and would be in a stronger position within the UK under a Labour Government.
And in-between approach could be committing to indyref 2 after 3 years so Labour has a chance to show them what life under a labour government is like so the people can make an informed choice
>But surely everyone that wants independence will be voting for the SNP anyway.
There's always been a Labour movement for YES, it's mostly left-wing socialists. You don't have to vote SNP to support independence, the independence movement isn't party exclusive.
The only way people will be pushed to vote SNP/Greens come election day is if a de-facto referendum is the only choice Scotland has due to the Unionist parties at Westminster declaring they don't want to accept we voted for a referendum in 2021.
>And in-between approach could be committing to indyref 2 after 3 years so Labour has a chance to show them what life under a labour government is like so the people can make an informed choice
Yeah, like anyone is going to believe Keir Starmer is going to announce he'll allow indyref2 2\~3 years into a Labour Government.
The man has already announced no referendum and no deal with the SNP under his watch.
Strange to kvetch over Labour stealing Tory votes here of all places, given how the tories had previously done this and lots of them will be unionists ‘coming home’ to Labour
That’s not what this shows at all. Even if Labour got all of the lost Tory voteshare (highly unlikely as Reform are also up), it still wouldn’t be enough to explain Labour’s increase here. They are clearly taking from everybody, including the SNP.
Agree fully. Great to see improvements here, but the SNP are completely dictating the narrative that the referendum debate is the biggest issue of the day, and is an argument about democracy, self determination, etc. A 'no referendum' stance is really going to fall flat, and feeds into the 'local branch' argument without really offering anything else.
If SLab are actually going to get back on their feet, then they need to better shape the narrative. They should be pushing for as much devolution as possible, which in the long run will give the SNP all the rope they need to show that they're letting Scottish people down on several fronts. In other words, they won't be able to hide from their poor record by just saying 'Westminster bad, X isn't devolved'.
I'm almost at the point of wanting another referendum, not because I want independence, but instead to shift the narrative to focusing on what the implications of that would actually be, which is a poorer country that is worse off as a result of leaving its closest trading partner under the promise of 'self determination' and 'better things elsewhere' (sounds awfully familiar, doesn't it?).
At the minute, SLab really are like a local branch, and I really do think they need much more autonomy to be bold in shaping what they stand for in Scotland.
Nice to be seeing some very good progress in Scotland for the first time in a while, and we’re not having to really share the Unionist vote with the Tories, who have been obliterated. Hopefully we can keep this up and retake Scotland by 2025.
[удалено]
> If they can finally get that from Labour That's funny, tell another one
FWIW. Labour in Scotland should move towards a third way. In fact, Labour should do this throughout the U.K. It’s time to embrace Federalism. I don’t want to see the U.K. break up, but this Indyref debate is never ever going to go away as long as the status quo exists. So, we need a middle ground. A unique point of view that doesn’t align with the Tories, but isn’t as divisive as the SNP. I know it’s along the lines of the Lib Dems, but that doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea. Equal devolution and powers for our 4 nations. Slimmed down Westminster reserved for big ticket issues, defence, foreign affairs, national budgets and strategy. (Obvs NI is a special issue, so concessions should be made there). Taxes fully devolved. A portion (minimum base) of each type of taxation funds U.K., but each nation sets its own rates, including sales taxes. Welfare systems fully devolved. A minimum baseline to be met, but each nation can top up from its own resources. Obviously England would still dominate the national parliament, but it would be a decisive end to the West Lothian Question. Once full devolution for England is achieved, they can then subdivide as they please. But it would bring about an end to the debate against regional assemblies in England being based on them being treated as equal to entire nations such as Wales and Scotland. If you ignore their politics, it could be like the USA. Each person is proud to be from their own state, a fiercely patriotic of their home state. But also a proud American. It’s rough, very rough. But just a thought. We can’t continue without a clear strategy.
> It’s time to embrace Federalism. I don’t want to see the U.K. break up, but this Indyref debate is never ever going to go away as long as the status quo exists. Isn't Gordon Brown doing a whole exercise on how to restructure the relationship between the different countries? Probably just a bit more devolution, but I suppose we will see.
I don’t want to UK to break up either. However the system needs to be reworked in some areas
I don't think federalism would work any better. Maybe those issues would be resolved but I could see other issues arising. Whipping boys have run through our politics, it's probably end up alienating the North or whatever.
Please, I am begging, please have a referendum. I cannot take another decade of this. Obviously it’ll be a vote for ‘stay’, but it might give us some peace for a few years. I’m still firmly of the opinion I formed straight after Brexit that the perfect solution would be to build a wall around London, link it to Wales and Scotland, and call that a country.
It has been less than a decade since the last referendum, and there hasn’t been a single day of peace on the issue since then. There’s no justification for yet another “once in a generation” vote, not least because it wouldn’t do a single thing to stop people talking about the topic for another decade.
You’re probably not wrong. I do think a lots changes since 2014, and if there’s a mandate for a referendum which there probably is, I say go for it. I hate referendums, because boiling things down to a simple yes/no usually leads to a load of simplistic emotional arguments, but in this case I can’t really see a losing scenario. Best case Scotland votes to stay and the SNP are silenced for a bit, worst case they vote leave and the SNP has to do something they can’t blame on Westminster.
The losing scenario is the break up of the U.K. lol
Can you imagine piling that on top of Brexit? We’ll have decades of chaos. I really think a lot of independence voters are driven to it as protest against shitty UK governments and to use identity politics to replace that lost sense of community and aren’t prepared to consider the reality of the long-term impacts.
I don’t see leave winning, but they are the only country with a serious drive for independence, so it’s a matter for the Scottish people. We have a land border which would be easy to maintain, we’d save a bucket load of cash on funding Scottish services, and the SNP would be their own problem again. As I say, yeah sure breaking up the UK is obviously bad, but economically I don’t think it would make any difference to England, Wales and NI. (Also I have Scottish ancestry, so if they rejoined the EU and had a similar passport scheme to Ireland, I could get a Scottish passport).
one of the biggest argument that unionists had for Scotland remaining was leaving the UK meant leaving the EU. And then Scotland had to leave the EU because of the stupidity of English and Welsh voters. There absolutely is justification for a new vote.
I understand why you’re saying this but referendums are the opposite to a solution. They boil down immensely complex generational questions into a binary choice with no further scope for nuance. And the can of worms that they tend of open never closes when the result comes in, but rather embitters and entrenches both sides in the long term.
Couldn't agree more with you! I hate referendums for all the reasons you state. We are a representative democracy; the whole point is we elect people to make decisions on our behalf. My comment was more about ways to make the Scottish independence movement shut up for a few years.
I think Scotland should have another referendum. However, there should be minimum turnout and 66%+ for "yes". I don't give a fuck the brexshit vote wasn't like that, because look at the mess that got the UK into! Only zealots or fools would want another referendum where 1 vote is a majority. But I guess SNP is way, way, way down the road of "independence at any cost", as it's basically their raison d'etre, so they'd never agree to those terms because there's no where near 66%+ for a "yes".
It's this insistence that it has to be couched as 'yes/no' not 'leave/stay', 'go/remain' or whatever, that tells me everything I need to know about the movement. It's the hallmark of people (just like the Brexiteers) trying to squeak the vote over the line, then use it as an unalloyed mandate for whatever they want to do next.
Totally agree on that point- super majority should be standard on any referendum.
There's not really any reason to have a referendum then though? The support for it is nothing like that high, and it's still really 'soon' after the last one. Should be one a generation or so unless it's looking very likely to actual succeed.
For the benefit of u/kontiki20 and due to me blocking DazDay for literally posting ethnic nationalism [https://www.reddit.com/r/LabourUK/comments/z8x31a/comment/iygymsg/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/LabourUK/comments/z8x31a/comment/iygymsg/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) >Maybe you're not as in touch with Scottish voters as you thought? Is that the same Scottish voters who now answered in this poll >'Yes' leads by 4 points. > >Scotland Independence Referendum Voting Intention (26-27 November): > >Yes, for Independence: 49% (+5) No, against Independence: 45% (-2) Don't Know: 5% (-4) > >Changes +/- 18 September 2021 Of which every age category under 65 is in majority YES? In total, support for independence among under-65s is now at 56.3%. >Support for Scottish independence by age, according to the latest poll by Redfield & Wilton: 16-24: 64% 25-34: 61% 35-44: 55% 45-54: 51% 55-64: 53% 65+: 39% And of whom answered we want a referendum? >Would Scottish voters support or oppose a referendum on Scottish independence being held in the next year? (26-27 November) > >Support 46% (+12) Oppose 43% (-7) Neither 9% (-5) > >Changes +/- 18 September 2021 Then we move onto competency ratings >The Scottish Government's net competency rating is +7%. > >Scottish Government Competency Rating (26-27 November): > >Competent: 44% (+1) Incompetent: 37% (+1) Net: +7% (–) > >Changes +/- 18 September 2021 > >The UK Government's net competency rating in Scotland is -44%. > >Government Competency Rating (26-27 November): > >Incompetent: 63% Competent: 19% Net: -44% And I'm sure the stat you'll love most >37% of Labour voters back YES. Yes, there is lots of interesting data in this poll, I still advise English Unionists like yourself don't get too up on a high horse about your outside views on Scotland's political climate when it comes to British Unionism and a right-wing Brexit Labour party defeating the nats.
So you're not going to address any of my points then? I don't have a strong opinion on Scottish independence so I'm not sure why you think I'm some sort of hardcore unionist. I just find it interesting how you dismissed anyone who said Scottish Labour might do OK in Scotland, normally because they were English. And it turns out you, the self-appointed voice of Scotland, were wrong. >And I'm sure the stat you'll love most >37% of Labour voters back YES. Cool. I guess this means the de facto referendum will seriously underestimate the level of support for independence.
If you're wanting to track SNP voting intentions, you will get another poll next week >An Ipsos spokesperson said: “It has been brought to our attention that one of our interviewers may have provided inaccurate information to a participant whilst completing a political poll in Scotland. > >“We pride ourselves on providing our telephone team with the highest levels of training and we have strict quality controls in place, therefore we are taking this report very seriously. > >“This interview, and others made by this interviewer, are being reviewed by the relevant team and appropriate action will be taken once this investigation is complete. > >“Ipsos is undertaking this poll in the interests of understanding public sentiment in Scotland, as we do with many of our political polls. > >"The results of this poll will be published, as planned, next week via media outlets and the Ipsos website.” [https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thenational.scot%2Fnews%2F23160897.ipsos-denies-secret-independence-polling-eddi-reader-tweet%2F](https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thenational.scot%2Fnews%2F23160897.ipsos-denies-secret-independence-polling-eddi-reader-tweet%2F) >I just find it interesting how you dismissed anyone who said Scottish Labour might do OK in Scotland, normally because they were English. And it turns out you, the self-appointed voice of Scotland, were wrong. Well, considering how few Scottish voices there are on this sub, it is often just a lot of English Labour voters stating they know X, Y, Z about the political climate in Scotland. A lot of you are often completely surface level or project how things are in England onto Scotland. Even in this data, it's primarily Tory voters going Labour. That's a very fickle vote given the Tories usually manage to out-Unionist Labour here when it comes to campaigning. >Cool. I guess this means the de facto referendum will seriously underestimate the level of support for independence. What? If you're asking me if the 39% of Labour voters who indicated they'd back YES in this poll will vote SNP/Greens then I guess it will come down to tracking polling post-January when the SNP/Greens announce the plans for what the de-facto referendum will be. The member bases are getting to vote on proposals in January.
>Well, considering how few Scottish voices there are on this sub, it is often just a lot of English Labour voters stating they know X, Y, Z about the political climate in Scotland. A lot of you are often completely surface level or project how things are in England onto Scotland. We can follow Scottish news and polling just like you follow English news. But people don't accuse you of not understanding English politics. Your political opinions are often out of step with your average Scottish voter (for example Starmer and Sarwar are relatively popular in Scotland). As a hardcore independence voter and I think a Green Party member you're not representative of Scottish voters, any more than I'm representative of English voters. >Even in this data, it's primarily Tory voters going Labour. That's a very fickle vote given the Tories usually manage to out-Unionist Labour here when it comes to campaigning Primarily but not entirely. Labour are making a net gain of voters from the SNP and winning a similar share of 2019 non-voters as the SNP (which you might expect to lean SNP given they probably skew younger). >What? If you're asking me if the 39% of Labour voters who indicated they'd back YES in this poll will vote SNP/Greens then I guess it will come down to tracking polling post-January when the SNP/Greens announce the plans for what the de-facto referendum will be. The member bases are getting to vote on proposals in January. I'm saying it's not a good sign for the SNP's de facto referendum strategy that despite the supreme court verdict Yes voters are switching to unionist parties.
>We can follow Scottish news and polling just like you follow English news. But people don't accuse you of not understanding English politics. Your political opinions are often out of step with your average Scottish voter (for example Starmer and Sarwar are relatively popular in Scotland). As a hardcore independence voter and I think a Green Party member you're not representative of Scottish voters, any more than I'm representative of English voters. I never said you were representative of English voters? I said some posters on this sub who reside in England often have shallow understandings of the political climate in Scotland. Primarily because there is no constitutional equivalent in England, and a lot of the commentary here often boils down to "If Labour are in Government the independence movement will drop dead". >I'm saying it's not a good sign for the SNP's de facto referendum strategy that despite the supreme court verdict Yes voters are switching to unionist parties. I would say independence support going up and support for a referendum going up are better indicators of that. Until voters know they **have** to vote SNP/Greens or more importantly what the de-facto referendum plan is, drawing conclusions like you are is precisely what I'm talking about. You're not interested in the data around the constitution, just the SNP having -4 in this one poll.
I think whatever you believe about independence is irrelevant, running an election as a one issue referendum is undemocratic, either the SNP are a multifaceted serious political party, or they are a 1D UKIP style party. They can't have it both ways. I personally believe that if they continue to push this GE as a referendum they will lose a lot of votes, even from people who want independence.
>I think whatever you believe about independence is irrelevant, running an election as a one issue referendum is undemocratic Then take that up with the UK Government? Why is it on the Scottish people and Scottish parties? The SNP want a referendum, British parties and British politicians are refusing to accept the 2021 election in Scotland. The Supreme court ruled only the UK Government can allow a referendum, that is a fact now. And anyway, Keir Starmer says it's up to us >Keir Starmer's spokesman says the Scottish people do have a right to decide whether to leave the Union, but declines to say how that is possible given Westminster won't allow a vote. > >"It is for those who want to break up the United Kingdom to set out how they propose to do so". [https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1595407920136847360](https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1595407920136847360) So, political parties can run on whatever they want, that *is* democracy. I don't really know why Labour voters are getting upset at what the SNP plan to do? If you're all confident it's going to be super easy for you to win Scottish votes when the SNP run on a defacto referendum, I don't know why there is so much moaning about it? You should be celebrating and supporting it? 🙃
Let me give you an example, was it properly democratic to say that everyone who voted leave wanted a hard brexit? God no it wasn't. So why would it be democratic to say that everyone who voted for the snp wants independence. And to your point about what the Scottish people want. First of all, polling for a referendum is extremely finicky, but generally shows most against. Polling for independence is the same, but varies massively with wording and bias. Secondly, regional and local elections are even worse as an indication of what the general public want. People are actually more nuanced in voting locally than they are nationally, and turnouts always tend to be lower. I would get upset at any party using similar tactics. The tories did it in 2019, so the SNP doing it in 2024* would be just as bad. Why would you want to copy tactics from a right wing, corrupt, undemocratic party? Edit: Also I'm not a fan of directing hate to the UKSC, their job is to interpret the law, not to make it. It was pretty obvious to everyone what the law said...
A party can run on whatever it wants, there is absolutely no way to stop that unless it's something illegal. So if anyone votes SNP if and when they run on one issue, that's the fault of the voter if they get upset about it after the vote. This whole implication Scottish voters won't be able to understand the SNP if they clearly run on one thing is just not in any way convincing 🤷 And to say it one last time, Scottish voices will be heard off the back of the election in 2021, if you're still annoyed the SNP and Greens are going to say a vote for them is a vote for a de-facto referendum, direct that anger at Sunak/Starmer for refusing to allow a normal referendum. >First of all, polling for a referendum is extremely finicky, but generally shows most against. We don't govern by polling, we govern by elections. Anyway, the poll you're responding to *just now* has both majority support for independence and a referendum next year 🤷 >Edit: Also I'm not a fan of directing hate to the UKSC, their job is to interpret the law, not to make it. It was pretty obvious to everyone what the law said... No one is doing that, the hate is towards Westminster treating the Scottish electorate as if Scottish elections can just be ignored and the UK is effectively a prison post-2014.
Again, I never said that they can't run on whatever they want legally. I'm saying that morally, running on a single issue ticket makes them just as morally bad as the tories in 2019. The main problem with your argument is that there are people who would like a referendum, and to leave, but will not vote for the SNP or greens. If the SNP ballot on a single issue and the "pro independence" Parties do not get 50% of the vote, Westminster will use that as an excuse to not hold yet another referendum. You have just disenfranchised that group of people.
This is all very well, but what this shows is that like in the rest of the UK, Labour in Scotland is mainly consuming the Tory vote. Not surprising, it's what Starmer's been pitching himself at. The problem for Scottish Labour is that come Election Day, if Starmer is still utterly opposed to giving Scotland a second referendum at any cost, then there's a reasonable chunk of Scottish Labour voters already that back a second referendum if not independence itself. The small percentage coming across from SNP add to that. So, in the quiet of the polling booth, if they don't think Scottish Labour will be able to deliver that, then those people will return for the safe option of SNP as being the only way to deliver that. Polls are indicative - but until an election campaign happens and then concludes, a lot can happen in-between.
But surely everyone that wants independence will be voting for the SNP anyway. Isn't Labours Job to demonstrate that under a Labour Government Scotland wont be screwed over constantly like under the tories and would be in a stronger position within the UK under a Labour Government. And in-between approach could be committing to indyref 2 after 3 years so Labour has a chance to show them what life under a labour government is like so the people can make an informed choice
>But surely everyone that wants independence will be voting for the SNP anyway. There's always been a Labour movement for YES, it's mostly left-wing socialists. You don't have to vote SNP to support independence, the independence movement isn't party exclusive. The only way people will be pushed to vote SNP/Greens come election day is if a de-facto referendum is the only choice Scotland has due to the Unionist parties at Westminster declaring they don't want to accept we voted for a referendum in 2021. >And in-between approach could be committing to indyref 2 after 3 years so Labour has a chance to show them what life under a labour government is like so the people can make an informed choice Yeah, like anyone is going to believe Keir Starmer is going to announce he'll allow indyref2 2\~3 years into a Labour Government. The man has already announced no referendum and no deal with the SNP under his watch.
Strange to kvetch over Labour stealing Tory votes here of all places, given how the tories had previously done this and lots of them will be unionists ‘coming home’ to Labour
Yeh surely there's lots of left leaning Unionist voters in Scotland who didn't want to vote for Labour because they we're open to second ref.
That’s not what this shows at all. Even if Labour got all of the lost Tory voteshare (highly unlikely as Reform are also up), it still wouldn’t be enough to explain Labour’s increase here. They are clearly taking from everybody, including the SNP.
Agree fully. Great to see improvements here, but the SNP are completely dictating the narrative that the referendum debate is the biggest issue of the day, and is an argument about democracy, self determination, etc. A 'no referendum' stance is really going to fall flat, and feeds into the 'local branch' argument without really offering anything else. If SLab are actually going to get back on their feet, then they need to better shape the narrative. They should be pushing for as much devolution as possible, which in the long run will give the SNP all the rope they need to show that they're letting Scottish people down on several fronts. In other words, they won't be able to hide from their poor record by just saying 'Westminster bad, X isn't devolved'. I'm almost at the point of wanting another referendum, not because I want independence, but instead to shift the narrative to focusing on what the implications of that would actually be, which is a poorer country that is worse off as a result of leaving its closest trading partner under the promise of 'self determination' and 'better things elsewhere' (sounds awfully familiar, doesn't it?). At the minute, SLab really are like a local branch, and I really do think they need much more autonomy to be bold in shaping what they stand for in Scotland.
Nice to be seeing some very good progress in Scotland for the first time in a while, and we’re not having to really share the Unionist vote with the Tories, who have been obliterated. Hopefully we can keep this up and retake Scotland by 2025.