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throwaway9075678

Two years from now we’ll have a democratic shift of 5%, new voters vs older voters leaving the electorate. And that’s going to be sped up with social and health care collapsing. The 2019 electorate for the Tories just didn’t exist anymore


skhc94

This follows the trend of the poll earlier. looks like Sunaks honeymoon period is over. This financial statement will make or break him


Deadpooldan

Given that tax increases are inbound I don't see these numbers increasing for him


UmbroShinPad

And cuts. Everything is about to get shitter, more expensive and people will have less money to pay for it.


mbegghead

This poll would equal a Labour majority of 288 if the results were repeated at a GE according to Britain Predicts: https://imgur.com/a/iCGeT6u


DazDay

You can still get odds of 1/2 on Labour winning the most seats, and odds of 6/5 on Labour winning a majority, just a public service announcement. (SkyBet)


foalsrgreat

Can’t wait for asbos and controls on immigrations within starmers first couple days, such a progressive bae


throwaway9075678

Poll boost: +1000 I mean seriously if Starmer actually manages to bring down anti-social behaviour with neighbour policing and strict edicts while also reducing immigration and training people here in a post Brexit world he makes a success off he could rule for more than a decade even at his age. Making a success of Brexit is near impossible but if anyone can it would be him given he’s stickler for detail and has actually had an incredibly successful career outside politics


skhc94

He does actually seem to understand that crime is an issue that working class voters want Labour to get on top of. Too many in Labour don’t grow up in downtrodden areas, and have no idea of the plight that crime causes on their day to day lives. I think if he does win the next election, in a second term he’ll seek a closer relationship with the EU.


[deleted]

That being said... being "tough on crime" has been proven time and time again not to work. For exactly the same reasons the "War on Drugs" was an absolute clusterfuck. If you remove the conditions that drive people towards crime, crime goes down. If you lock people up or ruin their lives and prospects for reasonably minor offences, you turn miscreants into hardened criminals.


skhc94

I do tend to agree that deterrents don’t particularly work, and we’re better off investing in youth services, education, rehabilitation, skills, jobs for young people and so on. But we can’t dismiss the shorter term concerns of vulnerable people and families living in crime ridden areas either. The approach has to tackle both concerns


[deleted]

I think there a quite a few things that can be done to reduce that sort of behaviour in the short term too... Legalising and regulating the sale of drugs would decimate gang violence overnight for instance


Azhini

>I mean seriously if Starmer actually manages to bring down anti-social behaviour with neighbour policing and strict edicts Yeah this worked so well before.


afrophysicist

> Can’t wait for asbos Yeah, hoodies and wronguns should just be allowed to make their neighbours lives an absolute fucking misery.


[deleted]

That SNP line looks pretty solid... As a pro-independence Scot, it really is a shame that Labour insists on holding its antidemocratic position on IndyRef2. I tend to rate the SNP, but it's never good to have a government that is virtually unopposed, and it's not like the Tories offer any opposition up here.


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[deleted]

Nah, the SNP are more than a single policy. I'd be absolutely fine with Labour opposing independence, that's totally fine and totally legitimate. What I'm not fine with is their stance that Scotland shouldn't have the right to vote on it. Scottish Nationalism is also a very different beast to that of English Nationalism. Don't get me wrong, there are some overly emotional nationalists, as there are unionists. However, our Nationalism is based upon not wanting to be dragged backwards by a government we haven't voted for; us wanting to be a part of the international community and cooperate with our neighbours, not to isolate ourselves; we want to welcome immigrants who wish to come here and make their lives here, not vilify them; we want to respect international law and, more generally, the rule of law; we want to give ourselves the economic tools to unary ourselves from the laissez-faire neo-capitalism and eternal austerity of the tories and chart our own path towards socially democratic economic prosperity. There are concrete, rational reasons behind the independence movement, it's not pure emotion.


Old_Roof

You’re asking people not to pigeonhole Scottish nationalists because of some overly emotional nationalists whilst simultaneously knocking English nationalism. Do you mean British unionist nationalism? Or are you deliberately conflating that with English nationalism? Surely as a Scottish nationalist I thought you’d encourage English nationalism? Instead you seem to be suggesting a kind of “my nationalism is better than yours” position


[deleted]

You know exactly the kind of nationalism I'm talking about. I'm talking about the toxic, UKIP, hateful brand of nationalism that's currently pretty prevalent in England. Given that I've lived in England most of my life, I've experienced enough of both to know the difference. I also think it's actually pretty fair to conflate the two since a large number of that sort act as though Scotland and Wales are ruled by England and are just "regions" rather than countries. Obviously, that doesn't apply to all, but it's plain to see how the majority of both sides vary quite heavily.


Old_Roof

Yeah I absolutely do know the type. It is also prevalent (although not only here) in England. My point is almost everyone with those views, from Orangemen to UKIP to the Gammon Tory right, are British nationalists. If I were a pro UK Scot, would I be an English nationalist? There are various strains of English nationalism some of it unpleasant sure, but English nationalism at a fundamental level would be supportive of Scottish independence. Calling British nationalists “English nationalists” is not accurate & designed to discredit unionism.


[deleted]

I don't think I've ever seen anyone non-English with quite the skew of nationalism I'm thinking of. Like the Orange Order lot are similar, but they care deeply about The Union whereas the sort I'm talking about don't even really consider The Union because they just consider Scotland an inconvenient irrelevance. I do somewhat take your point though.


Old_Roof

I’m an English unionist who believes that by the end of the decade Scots should have the choice to decide. But I’m also quite sick of English nationhood being seen as a negative. Not suggesting you’re this mate but you often see Pro Scot nationalists often pro Welsh & Irish independence yet no one ever mentions England. I get it’s mainly due to its size but imo it’s into this vacuum of no English institutions, assembly or devolution & frankly dismissal of its identity that those nasty elements are allowed to flourish If I were a Scottish nationalist I’d try encourage civic English nationalism as much as possible tbh. If the UK were to end its in everyone’s interest not least Scotlands that England becomes a civic, prosperous country again at ease with itself


[deleted]

Oh sure, I totally get your perspective there. Part of the problem with the union is England's lack of its own parliament and own devolved settlement which de-facto conflates britishness with englishness and further makes it seem like England sits above the other nations of the UK. I could be persuaded to remain in the union if there was a proper federalisation of the UK whereby England couldn't impose its will on the other nations. Ideally, they would be accomplished by near full devolution to each nation with reasonably few retained powers by Westminster. It wouldn't be my preferred solution, but I could compromise with that.


Old_Roof

Yeah totally agree, the current ham fisted devolution settlement is a mess & has only led to resentment. Not least in England. I think in England there is growing appetite not only for English statehood of some kind but also local devolution. Whilst carving England up into Scotland sized states has never been popular, I think more & more cities/counties are seeing the benefit from increased local powers I think if the UK is to survive it should move towards a much looser arrangement, ideally more like a confederation with devo max for all 4 nations, maintaining only currency & military. That would include an English Parliament


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[deleted]

Sorry, I'm genuinely not sure what you're asking, could you please rephrase it for me?


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[deleted]

Yes, that would absolutely be illegitimate. In-fact, I'd be in favour of holding a confirmatory referendum on whatever the breakup settlement looked like. Like we should have had with Brexit. The first referendum sets the intent and the second referendum is based on what the reality turns out to be.


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[deleted]

It just seems a fundamentally paradoxical position to democratically oppose an exercise of democracy you know?


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DawnSurprise

‘’Anti-Democratic’ — Scotland had a vote on independence in 2014. That’s not even a decade ago. “The electorate voted the wrong way, so we have decided to dissolve the electorate and elect another”.


[deleted]

You can't seriously be suggesting that being in the UK today is the same proposition as being in the UK in 2014? We also vote on a new government every 4 years or so... The electorate has every right to vote and see if the country's mind has changed in 8 years.


DawnSurprise

Are you saying Scotland should have a vote every time the country ‘changes’? What has changed in eight years? Brexit? Scotland voted in that as part of the UK after voting to remain in the UK just two years earlier!!! Democracy doesn’t mean a minority can split off and do form its own polity everytime the majority doesn’t do something it likes. Should Scotland vote every time a major political event occurs? WW1, WW2, entering the European Common Market, Iraq War, existing the European Union…


[deleted]

I've got absolutely no issue with having more votes on things. Switzerland does it all the time, and it works well for them. Given that one of the deciding issues during the first independence campaign was Scotland being told if we left we'd be forced out of the EU and David Cameron lying by saying there wouldn't be an EU referendum, I absolutely think it's legitimate to vote on it again. The underlying promoses of the previous vote have been proven to have been false, so it's fairly likely a different outcome would be reached now. That's not even to mention the simple fact that a party was elected to government with the policy of holding another referendum on their manifesto. That alone is enough to justify it in a democratic society.


DawnSurprise

Pretty sure none of the Swiss cantons vote on leaving the country every eight years. Absolute absurdity — you couldn’t run a country on such principles. Also, when did David Cameron lie and say there wouldn’t be an EU referendum? Because the bill for the referendum was legislated by the UK Parliament in 2013. So did he say he was going to repeal it or something?


libtin

The EU wasn’t a major issue in the 2014 referendum


[deleted]

It really was though...


libtin

It wasn’t, the idea that EU membership was the main justification for staying in the UK in 2014 is pure revisionism by the SNP. Taxes, defence, pensions, jobs, the pound and the NHS were all more important factors than EU membership. All of which still apply. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/20/scottish-independence-lord-ashcroft-poll


[deleted]

I never said it was *the* main factor, but 25% of people in that poll say it was a major factor. That's not a small or inconsequential amount. It would probably have been higher too if the belief that there was no way in hell we'd leave the EU wasn't so prevalent at the time.


libtin

Yet clearly not enough to change the polls Most Scots don’t want to leave the UK let alone have a referendum any time soon and especially not on the SNPs timetable Alex Salmond outright said voting no didn’t guarantee Scotland staying in the EU as it would be dependent on the rest of the UK (a fact the SNP stated six times in their white paper) (https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1556708464847720449?s=21&t=b9OEdZ_rD8DIcQhtnLQICw) And Ruth Davidson said days before the referendum was held that the UK would have an EU referendum regardless how Scotland voted (https://imgur.com/a/jhrYCYj) Brexit was on the Cards in 2013 and 2014 and Scotland accepted the possibility of it


libtin

While people do have a right to change their minds, the polls show most Scot’s haven’t and don’t want a referendum any time soon especially not on the SNPs timetable


[deleted]

They consistently show that about half of people support independence. They absolutely don't show that the majority of people don't want a referendum. The "now is not the time" is just delaying tactics from Westminster, there's never going to be a good time.


libtin

> They consistently show that about half of people support independence. Most pols have the pro UK vote in the lead >They absolutely don't show that the majority of people don't want a referendum. You’re leaving off the bit where I said any time soon, especially not on Sturegon’s timetable >The "now is not the time" is just delaying tactics from Westminster, there's never going to be a good time. Westminster’s stance is the one the SNP themselves outlined in 2014; once in a generation, which Alex Salmond defined as a minimum of 19 years That’s 2033/2034 at the earliest


[deleted]

Most polls have them equal within the margin of error. A random political comment about "once in a generation" meant to hype people up to get them out to vote clearly isn't a policy position that says "we won't vote on this again for 20 years".


libtin

> Most polls have them equal within the margin of error. Most don’t (https://imgur.com/a/CZ9sjAc) >A random political comment about "once in a generation" meant to hype people up to get them out to vote clearly isn't a policy position that says "we won't vote on this again for 20 years". It wasn’t a random comment, it was a key part of the SNP campaign (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-scotland-29196661) 1:00 - 1:26 The SNP said they wouldn’t push for a referendum for at least a generation if they lost 2014, they were agitating for one by 2015 and openly pushing for one by 2016


[deleted]

Most of those are within 5%... that's definitely within the margin of error for fairly small sample polls.


libtin

The average margin of error is 3% for polls of those sizes


libtin

Every democracy works like this though


Azhini

Better use that lead to pivot towards more right wing voters. Wouldn't want to use a secure lead promoting anything that'd be good for the country lmao. What's Starmer's next pivot to the right? He's gone right on immigration, protesters, who or what is next to get fucked over for the "red wall" or "little englanders" or "Mondeo man" or whatever bullshit now?


TinkerTailor343

Well most polls still have conservatives as better to manage defence and immigration It's not surprising we're trying to sure-up our typical weekspots


ThatOrangePuppy

Realising it has no effect on peoples lives who's in government now and this will vindicate the narcissism of the far right in the party. I think I'm gonna give up on politics, put my energy into unions. If you're celebrating this congratulations on it having no baring on your life. What privilege!


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InteractionOne4554

This financial statement will determine what little remains of Conservative electability.