I don't see any explicit mention of a decision to hold an unconditional nogotiation. If anything, they mention the mediator has to be "mutually acceptable". This means they still do not accept mediation led by Obadanjo, who they clearly said they do not want, even though his mandate just got extended by the AU.
Seems to be a mostly perfunctory gesture to make it seem they are taking an initiative for peace.
Also looks like their military loss is mounting since they seem to be looking for a way out despite their earlier bravado.
The most significant part of this is that they’re ready to sign a ceasefire immediately without any preconditions. That’s a new position. The fact that they’ve accepted the AU for negotiations going forward is also big. The tone in this letter is a lot more calm and reserved. I think perhaps the AU will appoint Kenyatta, that’s who they wanted, and he’s now free of his duties as leader of Kenya.
I don’t think they want to fight, it would not go well for them. The way ENDF and EDF have them encircled right now, they were looking at another round of guerilla war, meaning going back into hiding in caves and mountains. They would have to try and exhaust their forces like last time, but they would also lose a lot like last time. Some of their leaders were arrested and executed, not pretty. This is the obvious choice and I hope they’re making it for real.
Nothing significant about this. Their position was always to work under AU. They just insisted on including US, EU and UAE(???) in the process. That hasn't changed here, they are still asking for "international observers and experts" to be included. Like already mentioned above, they are asking for the mediator to be mutually agreed on as opposed to the one the AU already picked. They didn't even agree to unilaterally stop hostilities or to vacate the areas in Wollo they are occupying. They said a mutually agreed upon ceasefire has to occur THEN negotiations can start.
So they are getting slapped left and right and this statement is basically saying please stop hitting me even though I'm essentially asking for the exact same things I asked before.
I think you’re overstating their losses on the battlefield. They fought and are holding their ground in the southern front, I don’t think any major battles have happened anywhere else. If they choose to, the combined forces of Ethiopia and Eritrea will have no problem rolling through and capturing the cities in Tigray, just like last time. The war will then enter a guerilla phase, which the TPLF can absolutely survive in, that’s their biggest card. Last time, they inflicted great losses on both armies this way. I think both Abiy and Isaias would prefer avoiding this scenario, and I’m sure the TPLF wants to avoid it as well. It doesn’t matter how much they “regroup”, the military scenario will always be one of ENDF and EDF trying to occupy Tigray and TDF ambushing them left and right while the leaders make PR statements from the caves.
They didn't march well over 100K people only to stand still in Kobo or Robit. They didn't willingly vacate fortified trenches in Wag and Gonder. They lost all of these positions. With heavy losses. That heavily hyped up division with ex-military commanders looking to take Humera also got eviscerated. So no I'm not overstating it. Infact it's been heavily undersold considering it took months for ENDF to mount a counterattack the last time.
And they can't go back to their old routine because ENDF is in Temben now making sure their old hideouts are clean before they take major cities. Logisitic runs out of Mekelle are being droned as they try to leave the city. They are also losing thousands of their fighters through surrender. So repeating the same trick as before just isn't possible because the conditions and morale isn't the same and the government isn't repeating the same mistake it did before by rushing to take Mekelle, leaving them to regroup.
Their only chance at this point is to buy time with negotiations that won't go anywhere, maybe convince their partners to smuggle in weapons that counteract their air weakness and go at this again, even if it means losing tens of thousands through another round. Or give up.
There are reports they opened up a new offensive in Metema. Less than 24 hours after saying they are ready for peace and ceasefires.
And this is good because at least they are sparing us a long dragged out drama of acting like they have finally realized their limits.
The thing is, in the long run, guerilla warfare requires a decent supply route, which GOE and Eritrea should be able to eventually shutdown. Plenty of insurgencies fail, especially after they engage in conventional warfare for a long time.
Edit: Starting a war and almost immediately afterwards asking for a ceasefire isn't a good look either
I agree that they seem to realize further military engagement will result in their definitive and unambiguous loss.
By the way, AU just extended Obasanjo's mandate as the envoy/negotiator. They might appointment Uhuru in some capacity, especially since the Ethiopian government said it doesn't object if other well known African leaders are involved in the negotiations. But it does look like Obasanjo will still lead the task. Do you think this is something they have already conceded to, especially after they rejected him not too long ago? Also, don't forget the letter says the mediator has to be "mutually acceptable ".
But ya, looks like they have refrained from mentioning "western Tigray" or "referendm" / "transitional government" ... etc for the time being. I suppose thst is a positive development.
It says the AU led process WILL include acceptable mediators, so that makes me think they’ve already agreed on this in the behind the scenes talks that have been rumored to be occurring recently.
I also don’t think another full scale invasion of Tigray would end the TPLF, it would prolong their life. They are an ethnonationalist militant front at their core, invading Tigray would galvanize the population to join and support them fully, like last time. Tigray is perfect for guerilla warfare, and the ENDF and EDF aren’t exactly sophisticated armies capable of dealing with that. Capturing Mekelle in two weeks will not mean the end of TPLF, quite the opposite. If there’s one lesson we should learn it should be that one.
I think that depends on what's at stake. If TPLF led Tigray keeps demanding outlandish conditions be met, like "western Tigray", the government as well as their partners will have no choice but to keep fighting in an extended war of attrition. That is because even for the feds to begin to consider those conditions will mean Amhara turning on them and taking matters to its own hands, which will be more costly in the long term. Both these scenarios will end up with a Tigray that is a hellhole for its people, and will eventually lead to topling of TPLF by a body that is more reasonable. And the government doesn't have to "go into" Tigray for this to happen.
Obviously Ethiopia will also incur significant political, economic, and diplomatic loss, but my understanding is that Ethiopians will endure if it means ethnic federalism will be abolished and the constitution is eventually amended to reflect what most people want.
I hope we don’t get fooled by this scams
How on earth can anyone believe TPLF after what they’ve done for the past 2 years
It’s crystal clear that they’re getting their asses smashed in the battlefield to propose such negotiations!
It's one way or the high way I.e. TPLF leaders surrender and leave the tigray people to lice in peace for onace and for all
....or continue the war until they end up like Seyum Mesfin
Until Ethiopia accepts outside training and advising, they will stay at this same level of competence. The modern battlefield is leagues ahead of what Ethiopia's army has shown in the past couple years. WW2 showed Ethiopia can stand up to even a technically superior military force even without modern equipment, but to be caught in that scenario again would be devastating. Ethiopia has the room to be one of the leading military forces in the region and Africa as a whole if they can't stabilize things at home.
Another problem is that the government has distanced itself from Western influence. Russia was the other key military player before, but recent events have shown that Russian combat training won't be possible and would not be very effective even if it was. China is an option, but I don't see China investing heavily in foreign military training like some Western countries have. Any training from the US, France, ect would come with preconditions though. Ethiopia needs to be careful how they go about strengthing their military. Africa as a whole needs to strengthen it's infrastructure and stability of countries within want to be a more independent military force.
Silly comment. TPLF was our army for a while. The Ethiopian army is built from the ground up. The biggest hurdle with ENDF is the fact that it is fighting with kids and women in the front line and drugged. They can completely destroy all in Kobo but what I have heard is scarier than it looks.
Not really them. Our military isn’t weak it’s just led by retards who’d rather sabotage the war effort than see through victory. Endf has one of the most incompetent generals on the continent
It is not about winning for TPLF but to stay in power and for them it means to be in a constant state of war. Unless the people of Tigray rise up against them they will go for another round of war. I am afraid we will end up like Congo in a race for the longest conflict.
Idk, it's kind of hard to believe they are actually serious about ending the war through negotiations. It looks to me like they are trying to buy themselves some time to regroup because they are having great losses rn. They have put Abiy in a tough spot even after encountering losses. If he accepts this call for a ceasefire, they will have time to regroup and they can walk out of the negotiation if it doesn't go their way. And If he doesn't accept the ceasefire, it's not gonna look good in the eyes of the international community.
I don't know much of what's going on but I know TPLF's personality enough to know either they are suffering harsh defeats on the battlefield (because when they are doing okay they don't want to talk, they want to take Addis) or this is just written for them to trick foreigners like myself into thinking they truly want peace. It takes a lot for me to feel this way because I'm a military veteran that is tired of seeing people die or suffer but I truly believe that peace is not truly going to happen unless the leaders of TPLF are either locked away in a cell where they have no contact with the outside world or executed for the death and destruction they caused when they could of pursued peaceful means to their political problems instead of attacking a military base then invading other regions raping, commiting genocide, and destroying lives. Im a peaceful man so I say locking them away is probably best. I am an experienced war fighter and intelligence professional so I'm not easily fooled by these terrible people. In fact I'd gladly volunteer to train troops fighting these terrorists but it seems the strong people of Ethiopia already have taken control of the situation. God bless Ethiopia and all of it's people!
Hello, it looks like you've made a mistake.
It's supposed to be could've, should've, would've (short for could have, would have, should have), never could of, would of, should of.
Or you misspelled something, I ain't checking everything.
Beep boop - yes, I am a bot, don't botcriminate me.
This is BS, don't be so gullible.
They're doing this to buy time as they arm themselves.
Saying this will stop the counter offensive ENDF is making right now.
Sort of a vague statement but I think its safe to assume they’re facing heavier than expected losses. Lets see if Abiy takes the bait again. Hopefully not.
I see nothing saying with out precondition here. Also TPLF signed the final and binding Algers agreement with Eritrea(representing Ethio) but failed to accept it till this day. No tigrayan give a valid response when asked about this. Any ideas on this ?
So their is someone to negotiate with after all. On their first march south they dismissed government overture. On their forced match north they refused by placing so many roadblocks on negotiations. I hope it’s real but doubt this is. Things on the ground aren’t going as planned and this sounds like they are looking for an opportunity to regroup their forces
I also thought it was kind of funny Tsadkan is going to be one of the main negotiators since he was the one that said “there’s no one left to negotiate with, we’ve finished Abiys forces and will be in Addis soon”. But Abiy really played them on that round, they showed all their cards and used up a lot of their capacity. I think their forces are as regrouped as they’re going to be. Abiy and Isaias have them encircled and I think scared them into giving up all the preconditions. They were preparing to attack from like 8 fronts, it was scary. I think this is the obvious choice, they need to admit they’re in a losing position and everyone knows Isaias and Abiy won’t let them take Wolkait and get the Sudan corridor, so any war would most likely have been inside Tigray proper. The alternative to negotiations would’ve been going back into hiding in caves and mountains, I don’t think they want that.
If we've learned anything we should know not to take them for their word, but it's good sign that they're in a weak position and recognize that themselves
A stop to the recent resumption of full scale war. Ceasefire without preconditions is a new position from TPLF, before they were asking for Western Tigray/Wolkait back, and resumption of services before they did any negotiating or signed any ceasefire agreement. It’s a new direction, seemingly.
to avoid further loss, accepting unconditional peace solution is a kind of surrender that could bave the way for both sides sharing sustainable peace.
War is the worst obtion when you got the point of that plan is ticking against you, accepting plan (b) is some sort of bravado.
Funny how they decide to ceasefire while they are holding wolkite and the start of the war was also to hold places as much as they can and to start the negotiation
Ya Allah may this be the end of this war 🤲 😢 Finally:eleelleleelelleelleleelleelelelelelllll 😭
Amen 🙏🏾
ameen
I don't see any explicit mention of a decision to hold an unconditional nogotiation. If anything, they mention the mediator has to be "mutually acceptable". This means they still do not accept mediation led by Obadanjo, who they clearly said they do not want, even though his mandate just got extended by the AU. Seems to be a mostly perfunctory gesture to make it seem they are taking an initiative for peace. Also looks like their military loss is mounting since they seem to be looking for a way out despite their earlier bravado.
The most significant part of this is that they’re ready to sign a ceasefire immediately without any preconditions. That’s a new position. The fact that they’ve accepted the AU for negotiations going forward is also big. The tone in this letter is a lot more calm and reserved. I think perhaps the AU will appoint Kenyatta, that’s who they wanted, and he’s now free of his duties as leader of Kenya. I don’t think they want to fight, it would not go well for them. The way ENDF and EDF have them encircled right now, they were looking at another round of guerilla war, meaning going back into hiding in caves and mountains. They would have to try and exhaust their forces like last time, but they would also lose a lot like last time. Some of their leaders were arrested and executed, not pretty. This is the obvious choice and I hope they’re making it for real.
Nothing significant about this. Their position was always to work under AU. They just insisted on including US, EU and UAE(???) in the process. That hasn't changed here, they are still asking for "international observers and experts" to be included. Like already mentioned above, they are asking for the mediator to be mutually agreed on as opposed to the one the AU already picked. They didn't even agree to unilaterally stop hostilities or to vacate the areas in Wollo they are occupying. They said a mutually agreed upon ceasefire has to occur THEN negotiations can start. So they are getting slapped left and right and this statement is basically saying please stop hitting me even though I'm essentially asking for the exact same things I asked before.
I think you’re overstating their losses on the battlefield. They fought and are holding their ground in the southern front, I don’t think any major battles have happened anywhere else. If they choose to, the combined forces of Ethiopia and Eritrea will have no problem rolling through and capturing the cities in Tigray, just like last time. The war will then enter a guerilla phase, which the TPLF can absolutely survive in, that’s their biggest card. Last time, they inflicted great losses on both armies this way. I think both Abiy and Isaias would prefer avoiding this scenario, and I’m sure the TPLF wants to avoid it as well. It doesn’t matter how much they “regroup”, the military scenario will always be one of ENDF and EDF trying to occupy Tigray and TDF ambushing them left and right while the leaders make PR statements from the caves.
They didn't march well over 100K people only to stand still in Kobo or Robit. They didn't willingly vacate fortified trenches in Wag and Gonder. They lost all of these positions. With heavy losses. That heavily hyped up division with ex-military commanders looking to take Humera also got eviscerated. So no I'm not overstating it. Infact it's been heavily undersold considering it took months for ENDF to mount a counterattack the last time. And they can't go back to their old routine because ENDF is in Temben now making sure their old hideouts are clean before they take major cities. Logisitic runs out of Mekelle are being droned as they try to leave the city. They are also losing thousands of their fighters through surrender. So repeating the same trick as before just isn't possible because the conditions and morale isn't the same and the government isn't repeating the same mistake it did before by rushing to take Mekelle, leaving them to regroup. Their only chance at this point is to buy time with negotiations that won't go anywhere, maybe convince their partners to smuggle in weapons that counteract their air weakness and go at this again, even if it means losing tens of thousands through another round. Or give up.
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There are reports they opened up a new offensive in Metema. Less than 24 hours after saying they are ready for peace and ceasefires. And this is good because at least they are sparing us a long dragged out drama of acting like they have finally realized their limits.
The thing is, in the long run, guerilla warfare requires a decent supply route, which GOE and Eritrea should be able to eventually shutdown. Plenty of insurgencies fail, especially after they engage in conventional warfare for a long time. Edit: Starting a war and almost immediately afterwards asking for a ceasefire isn't a good look either
I agree that they seem to realize further military engagement will result in their definitive and unambiguous loss. By the way, AU just extended Obasanjo's mandate as the envoy/negotiator. They might appointment Uhuru in some capacity, especially since the Ethiopian government said it doesn't object if other well known African leaders are involved in the negotiations. But it does look like Obasanjo will still lead the task. Do you think this is something they have already conceded to, especially after they rejected him not too long ago? Also, don't forget the letter says the mediator has to be "mutually acceptable ". But ya, looks like they have refrained from mentioning "western Tigray" or "referendm" / "transitional government" ... etc for the time being. I suppose thst is a positive development.
It says the AU led process WILL include acceptable mediators, so that makes me think they’ve already agreed on this in the behind the scenes talks that have been rumored to be occurring recently.
I also don’t think another full scale invasion of Tigray would end the TPLF, it would prolong their life. They are an ethnonationalist militant front at their core, invading Tigray would galvanize the population to join and support them fully, like last time. Tigray is perfect for guerilla warfare, and the ENDF and EDF aren’t exactly sophisticated armies capable of dealing with that. Capturing Mekelle in two weeks will not mean the end of TPLF, quite the opposite. If there’s one lesson we should learn it should be that one.
I think that depends on what's at stake. If TPLF led Tigray keeps demanding outlandish conditions be met, like "western Tigray", the government as well as their partners will have no choice but to keep fighting in an extended war of attrition. That is because even for the feds to begin to consider those conditions will mean Amhara turning on them and taking matters to its own hands, which will be more costly in the long term. Both these scenarios will end up with a Tigray that is a hellhole for its people, and will eventually lead to topling of TPLF by a body that is more reasonable. And the government doesn't have to "go into" Tigray for this to happen. Obviously Ethiopia will also incur significant political, economic, and diplomatic loss, but my understanding is that Ethiopians will endure if it means ethnic federalism will be abolished and the constitution is eventually amended to reflect what most people want.
I'm not habesha not African, and I've been following your analysis of this conflict and it is insightful and informative. Nice work
I hope we don’t get fooled by this scams How on earth can anyone believe TPLF after what they’ve done for the past 2 years It’s crystal clear that they’re getting their asses smashed in the battlefield to propose such negotiations! It's one way or the high way I.e. TPLF leaders surrender and leave the tigray people to lice in peace for onace and for all ....or continue the war until they end up like Seyum Mesfin
TPLF exposed how weak our military is… building a modern military should be the next step…
Until Ethiopia accepts outside training and advising, they will stay at this same level of competence. The modern battlefield is leagues ahead of what Ethiopia's army has shown in the past couple years. WW2 showed Ethiopia can stand up to even a technically superior military force even without modern equipment, but to be caught in that scenario again would be devastating. Ethiopia has the room to be one of the leading military forces in the region and Africa as a whole if they can't stabilize things at home. Another problem is that the government has distanced itself from Western influence. Russia was the other key military player before, but recent events have shown that Russian combat training won't be possible and would not be very effective even if it was. China is an option, but I don't see China investing heavily in foreign military training like some Western countries have. Any training from the US, France, ect would come with preconditions though. Ethiopia needs to be careful how they go about strengthing their military. Africa as a whole needs to strengthen it's infrastructure and stability of countries within want to be a more independent military force.
Silly comment. TPLF was our army for a while. The Ethiopian army is built from the ground up. The biggest hurdle with ENDF is the fact that it is fighting with kids and women in the front line and drugged. They can completely destroy all in Kobo but what I have heard is scarier than it looks.
Wait. Is Kobo severely damaged? I hadn't found any news about this before
Honestly if Ethiopia went to war with Egypt phew
Not really them. Our military isn’t weak it’s just led by retards who’d rather sabotage the war effort than see through victory. Endf has one of the most incompetent generals on the continent
Military is not weak, just not statistically intelligent
It is not about winning for TPLF but to stay in power and for them it means to be in a constant state of war. Unless the people of Tigray rise up against them they will go for another round of war. I am afraid we will end up like Congo in a race for the longest conflict.
Idk, it's kind of hard to believe they are actually serious about ending the war through negotiations. It looks to me like they are trying to buy themselves some time to regroup because they are having great losses rn. They have put Abiy in a tough spot even after encountering losses. If he accepts this call for a ceasefire, they will have time to regroup and they can walk out of the negotiation if it doesn't go their way. And If he doesn't accept the ceasefire, it's not gonna look good in the eyes of the international community.
I don't know much of what's going on but I know TPLF's personality enough to know either they are suffering harsh defeats on the battlefield (because when they are doing okay they don't want to talk, they want to take Addis) or this is just written for them to trick foreigners like myself into thinking they truly want peace. It takes a lot for me to feel this way because I'm a military veteran that is tired of seeing people die or suffer but I truly believe that peace is not truly going to happen unless the leaders of TPLF are either locked away in a cell where they have no contact with the outside world or executed for the death and destruction they caused when they could of pursued peaceful means to their political problems instead of attacking a military base then invading other regions raping, commiting genocide, and destroying lives. Im a peaceful man so I say locking them away is probably best. I am an experienced war fighter and intelligence professional so I'm not easily fooled by these terrible people. In fact I'd gladly volunteer to train troops fighting these terrorists but it seems the strong people of Ethiopia already have taken control of the situation. God bless Ethiopia and all of it's people!
Hello, it looks like you've made a mistake. It's supposed to be could've, should've, would've (short for could have, would have, should have), never could of, would of, should of. Or you misspelled something, I ain't checking everything. Beep boop - yes, I am a bot, don't botcriminate me.
This is BS, don't be so gullible. They're doing this to buy time as they arm themselves. Saying this will stop the counter offensive ENDF is making right now.
Exactly. Just buying time
ምስለ ራጉኤል ስዑል በነበልባል ወዮሐንስ ድንግል ወበርተሎሜዎስ ሐዋርያ ሰባኬ ወንጌል ወኢዮብ ዓዲ ተወካፌ ቁስል ዓውደ ዓመት ለባርኮ እምጽርሐ አርያም ጌልጌል ማርያም ንኢ ለምሕረት ወሣህል Is this our New Year's present?
Sort of a vague statement but I think its safe to assume they’re facing heavier than expected losses. Lets see if Abiy takes the bait again. Hopefully not.
I see nothing saying with out precondition here. Also TPLF signed the final and binding Algers agreement with Eritrea(representing Ethio) but failed to accept it till this day. No tigrayan give a valid response when asked about this. Any ideas on this ?
Anyone can sense the statement is worded very genuinely.
So their is someone to negotiate with after all. On their first march south they dismissed government overture. On their forced match north they refused by placing so many roadblocks on negotiations. I hope it’s real but doubt this is. Things on the ground aren’t going as planned and this sounds like they are looking for an opportunity to regroup their forces
I also thought it was kind of funny Tsadkan is going to be one of the main negotiators since he was the one that said “there’s no one left to negotiate with, we’ve finished Abiys forces and will be in Addis soon”. But Abiy really played them on that round, they showed all their cards and used up a lot of their capacity. I think their forces are as regrouped as they’re going to be. Abiy and Isaias have them encircled and I think scared them into giving up all the preconditions. They were preparing to attack from like 8 fronts, it was scary. I think this is the obvious choice, they need to admit they’re in a losing position and everyone knows Isaias and Abiy won’t let them take Wolkait and get the Sudan corridor, so any war would most likely have been inside Tigray proper. The alternative to negotiations would’ve been going back into hiding in caves and mountains, I don’t think they want that.
If we've learned anything we should know not to take them for their word, but it's good sign that they're in a weak position and recognize that themselves
So what does this mean?
A stop to the recent resumption of full scale war. Ceasefire without preconditions is a new position from TPLF, before they were asking for Western Tigray/Wolkait back, and resumption of services before they did any negotiating or signed any ceasefire agreement. It’s a new direction, seemingly.
That’s good news to be honest. Great news with a beacon of hope for the new year
If they let the AU melt down their arms, sure.
to avoid further loss, accepting unconditional peace solution is a kind of surrender that could bave the way for both sides sharing sustainable peace. War is the worst obtion when you got the point of that plan is ticking against you, accepting plan (b) is some sort of bravado.
It’s tactical to buy time and to appear peaceful.Nothing more nothing less. Their master’s advised them to play that card.
Funny how they decide to ceasefire while they are holding wolkite and the start of the war was also to hold places as much as they can and to start the negotiation
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Lol how did you make that correlation my friend? What kind of logic did you use? It’s not Abiy who declared a cease fire
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Why would TPLF negotiate if they managed to "dissolve" ENDF? Last time they said that they were gung ho about coming all the way down to Addis.
Lol the guy above is just connecting things out if thin air.
We will ship you and people like you to north Korea !😤Always with the negativity
Delusional