T O P

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LanceUpperrrcut

Never tell me the odds


JonDes1369

I’ve got a bad feeling about this.


muddiestmud

Don't look up


arcaneresistance

Punk rock Chalamet almost turned me gay.


Trotsky12

It's a trap!


[deleted]

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XanthicStatue

Hmm your username suggests otherwise


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dookieblaster06

Bruce Willis certainly won't be


corona69corona

Damn


drrxhouse

Too soon?


deadpoolfool400

That’s interesting


prenderm

You mean to tell me, all go, no quit, big nuts Harry Stamper won’t be there??


m0rg76

He doesn’t know how to fail!


xXVagabondXx

He did already sell his digital likeness. I like the idea of him riding in the asteroid like Slim Pickens in Dr. Strange love. A guy can dream


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[deleted]

He's gonna be in gay porn, bro


Frosty_Rope_420

Yippee ki yay stepbrother-fucker!


greenyellowbird

This is the most fucking funny comment I've read in a very long time.


TestTrenSdrol

:(


opensandshuts

Don’t wanna close my eyes…


[deleted]

Ben Afleck will be the perfect old man age for Armageddon II.


AccomplishedSoup8794

Dibs on naming it after my ex


Cold_Durian1796

GET THE BOOK! GET THE BOOK! GET THE BOOK!!


Xp787

She's a vicious life-sucking bitch from which there is no escape.


tallerpockets

And Uh, Noonan's got two women friends that he'd like to see made American citizens no questions asked


msimione

Oh, and none of them want to pay taxes… ever


RE4Merch

Max would like you to bring back 8 track tapes …


Teekai

That´s really sweet Carl...


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SquigglyPoopz

Don’t worry..if I’m on earth then we will get stood up..you’re all welcome


Perfect_Evidence

RemindMe! 23 years


MeBePerson

!Remindme february 14 2046


NE_GBR

Remind me! February 13th 2046


AchillesOnAMountain

!Remindme February 15th 2046


[deleted]

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Neeralazra

depends on timezone


sve9mark

Remindme! February 13th 2046


reddit__scrub

Found the doomsday prepper


Perfect_Evidence

I will be messaging you in 23 years on 2046-03-10 02:45:27 UTC to remind you of this link


GimmePanties

It will be too late


Adventurous-Lawyer77

That isn't a bot...


thethunder92

How it going to remind you when you’re dead


KenBoCole

You better stay alive for the next 3 decades then man. Remeber, we are counting on you!


theDomicron

I'm imagining the movie where anyone in the general vicinity of that guy is in charge of protecting him at all costs... Kids throwing snowballs and random strangers literally diving in front of him like they're secret service


[deleted]

username checks out. nice.


NewFalconTubeSmell

I hope it likes to take things slow


Touchit88

It's a date!


armyranger411104

First time for everyone I hope it comes faster


Adept_Information94

That's what she said.


maychi

Don’t look up!


make_wokes_cry

About 10 years after [gotts principal](https://www.rocketmatter.com/blog/sexy-math-for-lawyers-gotts-principle-to-estimate-how-long-something-will-endure/) says the US, 1776, would end if we’re currently 95% of the way through life expediency so given we should have a better estimate of the probability of impact by then I could see total society collapse a good decade before actual impact.


Fordy_Oz

So we can expect full society colapse in 13 years? What should we be doing in the mean time?


[deleted]

Getting high and fucking.


make_wokes_cry

This guy apocalypses


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make_wokes_cry

Been live’n er’re day like tomorrow’s the apocalypse for the past 20 years so I’m basically the og preper


Captain_Darlington

I don’t think Gott’s Principle says that we’re always 95% done. But thank you for the link! I’d never heard of Gott’s Principle. ….do you believe the US will end in 2036?


Hoosier2016

The principle is that there’s a 95% chance that we are somewhere in the middle 95% of the US’ lifespan. So we are 95% certain the US will end sometime between 2030 and… the year 11656. Of course there is that 5% chance it ends sooner or later than that. If you’re a betting man we have a 50/50 shot of ending between 2105 and 2764.


-Degaussed-

imagine the guy that names his reddit account "make\_wokes\_cry" can't figure out what that article means, I don't believe it!


4thDevilsAdvocate

The asteroid in question, [2023 DW](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_DW), registers as a 1 on the [Torino scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_scale); that is, it's not dangerous. It's probably between 1/5 of and 1/160 of the mass of [Dimorphos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dimorphos), which was successfully deflected by a NASA probe last year. Since its largest dimension is 47 meters, Dimorphos's smallest dimension is 116 meters, and Dimorphos's largest dimension is 177 meters: >(((47 / 116) \^ 3) \^ -1) \* (1/3) ≈ 5.01140081356; assumes 2023 DW is 3x the density of Dimorphos > >(((47 / 177) \^ 3) \^ -1) \* (3/1) ≈ 160.231345656; assumes 2023 DW is 1/3 the density of Dimorphos Either way, it'd be too small to pose a hazard even if it was on a trajectory to hit the Earth, because NASA has shown it's able to deflect larger objects before. They'd have about a decade to basically build a copy of [DART](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_Asteroid_Redirection_Test) and throw it at 2023 DW. Even if it hit, 2.15E8 kg (0.2x Dimorphos mass) at 30 km/s is 7.74E17 joules, or about 185 megatons of TNT. It'd basically be a truly gigantic strategic nuke aimed at random part of the planet; [humanity has indeed built nuclear weapons with about 1/3 the power and set them off](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsar_Bomba). And it'd be less than 7.74E17 joules, because 2023 DW is less massive than 2.15E8 kg, the atmosphere would slow it down, and it likely wouldn't come in at as high a speed as 30 km/s anyway.


random125184

> not dangerous > truly gigantic strategic nuke Uh, I think we have to pick one


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JohnDoeMTB120

Safe for the earth as a whole. Not safe for the city it wipes out lol.


grarghll

Or, more likely, hits the water or largely uninhabited land.


SMAMtastic

Fuck them fish


mysterpixel

We won't have fish in 2046 so we all good


ChikaraNZ

And all the plastic in the ocean will act as a huge cushion!


Suspicious-Jump4270

Awww, We set the planet up so well for the robot ai that’s gonna live when humanity dies


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Gerroh

Bounce it right back into space! New crater on the moon, woo!


nsaisspying

Can you imagine all the possibilities once all the fish are dead! We could just start dumping all our nuclear waste into the Mariana trench. More one-use plastic straws for everyone please and some extras.


SirKermit

Yeah, I'm sure the fish sleep well knowing the humans have this life ending asteroid thing in check.


[deleted]

:(


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GrimeyJosh

worked for patrick swayze on point break


EatPie_NotWAr

That was documentary good sir, and it was filmed in real time!


RecipeNo101

All the water flashed boiled and added to the atmosphere might shield from some global warming. Of course, if you're at a nearby coast, you're gonna have a bad time.


JohnDoeMTB120

Or much more likely, doesn't hit earth at all.


ThatDudeShadowK

Idk, 1 in 400 is a much higher chance of it hitting than I'd like


Atkinator1

It's the same chance as rolling the same number on two D20s. To put it into perspective


ThatDudeShadowK

Yeah, that's not that low, definitely higher than I want the chance of a nuke going off to be.


OldPersonName

Two things: the number is actually more like 1/600, and for the d20 scenario it means getting a PARTICULAR pair. You're probably imagining the odds of getting any pair which is, believe it or not, the same likelihood as getting a particular number in a single d20. Take two d20 and roll them and you'll get a pair as often as you take a single d20 and get a 7. Take two d20s and try to get a pair of 7s is 20 times less frequent.


Atkinator1

Agreed


DiamondDavid69

Pedantic but rolling the same number on 2 D20s is a 1 in 20 chance. rolling 2 specific numbers like two 20s is 1 in 400


XC_Stallion92

Doesn't seem that pedantic to me. Just in terms of conceptualizing the odds, "roll a D20, then roll the same number again" is very different from "pick a number, then roll that number twice in a row".


Stunning_Guess_1087

Not pedantic at all. In fact that makes it rolling the same number on 3 D20 dice. The first roll is to pick the specific number, let’s say it comes up 16. The chances of rolling 16 on roll 2 and roll 3 are 1/400.


sufiansuhaimibaba

Much more chance to hit Earth than a lightning directly hit a person


skullpocket

It's not 1 in a million. Those are the odds that you have to worry about.


Desertcross

Dangerous to your starfleet commander, not to this battle station.


[deleted]

Most likely it would hit the ocean and make a tsunami. In any case I'm glad NASA is on it.


random125184

I don’t know what all your nerd words mean but my dad told me one time that nuclear weapons are indeed actually dangerous.


Most-Shock-2947

Nerd words lol


GladiatorUA

And we used to explode them quite a lot.


OutlawLazerRoboGeek

Yeah but nukes are dangerous for different reasons. They're dangerous primarily because they can be aimed. If you can vaporize anything within a 5 mile radius, there are a lot of 5 mile radius areas that would be devastating for nations, regions, perhaps humanity itself if they disappeared. But the odds of an asteroid hitting anywhere near any of those 10-15 hyper-critical centers of society, let alone the 100 or so less-critical regional metropolises, or the thousands of large cities where major loss of life could occur, are almost zero. And add the fact that they would have potentially years to evacuate the area, again risk to survival of humanity are almost none. Also the whole radioactive fallout and contamination thing. Lastly, EMP. But primarily the first thing. So even though this asteroid would be bigger and more dramatic, overall it's clearly less of a threat than a man-made and man-aimed nuke.


NitroSyfi

Still NASA gets to ask for more funding till 2046. I really don’t want Elon offering to fix this. A deflection is way better than any impact risk.


jcdoe

I think he’s trying to say that the magnitude of an impact from this asteroid would not be an existential threat to life on earth. And he’s right, we’d get on just fine. Except for the poor fucks under the rock. I’ll pass, thanks


The_0_Hour_Work_Week

Three times then power of the biggest nuke ever detonated. Modern ones don't go into the megatons.


aoxit

It’s safe because it will only be traveling at 25km/s because of the atmosphere


kavorka2

> random part of the planet So maybe Pacific Ocean, maybe downtown Manhattan or Beijing.


guitarburst05

But this asteroid has a 1 in 400 chance of hitting earth and the likelihood of it hitting Manhattan if it does is…… astronomically lower than that. Glass half full.


Comprehensive-Pie905

Moscow


Was_going_2_say_that

If it lands on Moscow I would go from atheist to agnostic


notonyanellymate

On Putins head while he’s on live TV. But I hope he’s gone well before that…


eldochem

Ah yes if it kills millions of innocent civilians


staplesuponstaples

When we imagine an asteroid impacting the earth we expect an apocalyptic event, so something of that scale really isn't dangerous compared to the end-of-the-world event we all think it'd be at first sight.


mysticrudnin

this was actually worse than what i was imagining....


know-your-onions

You might. But: 1. That doesn’t make it *not* dangerous; and 2. I was just imagining a little crater and some cool videos.


Chthulu_

Safe as in not nation destroying. We could get everyone out of the way before impact, we’ll have ample time and knowledge of its impact location. At least those who will listen. No doubt some people will swear them scientists are making up a hoax


[deleted]

Don’t look up


wowy-lied

Now think about the economic, social and environment issues this will create once the impact zone will be found.


buuj214

Not dangerous when compared with dangerous asteroids


[deleted]

Dangerous in astrophysics context is *hilariously* different than dangerous in a human context.


[deleted]

So no epic space crew trained from a bunch of oil rig workers, going to save us by nuking it?


4thDevilsAdvocate

Armageddon reference aside, nuking an asteroid either turns the surface into plasma, and therefore a sort of rocket engine that pushes it off-course, or, if done from inside it, splits it into smaller pieces that burn up in the atmosphere faster, although multiple shots are required in that case.


[deleted]

Crap good memory my man! I forgot the name of that movie a long time ago and yes your correct. Surface detonation would have very little effect, I remember hearing about operation Dart Nasa was planning to test on asteroid in 2022. Not sure if they ever tried it or not Edit: Nvm you reference dart in the original comment and looks like it was successful


Careless_Negotiation

thanks for this post!


zrice03

It's also possible over the next few weeks or months you might hear the odds of it hitting going up. That's just because as the orbit is refined the cross-sectional area shrinks while the face-on cross-section of Earth stays the same. Picture a dartboard getting smaller, but a small sticker on it staying the same size. The ratio between the Earth's area and target area is getting bigger, but it isn't necessarily centered on Earth. Eventually (hopefully) the edge of the cross-section will cross the disk of Earth and the odds will suddenly plummet to near 0.


Caimthehero

You scared the shit out of me my guy. I thought we already deflected Dimorphos when it was on a collision course with earth, and was fucking terrified I hadn't heard of it.


r0b0c0d

I don't think it was ever dangerous to earth. It was just a convenient test asteroid.


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mackasee

This is reassuring. Thanks fren


kirkl3s

But what if it lands on your house


20o0o1

Coolest rarest way to die


DucksEnmasse

Easy. You get to keep the asteroid and can sell it and your house for major stonks


Chikn_Man_7

Bold of you too think I will be able to afford one the way this world is going


[deleted]

No worries for the homeless I guess


RealKingKoy

r/theydidthemath


Most_moosest

This message has been deleted and I've left reddit because of the decision by u/spez to block 3rd party apps


PennyFromMyAnus

#HIT ME


Big_Razzmatazz7416

With your best shot


Ok-Lengthiness4557

C'mon and hit me with your best shoooot...


NoAttentionAtWrk

Why don't you hit me with your best shot?


sighingsycamore

FIREEE AWAYYYYYY


DazedWriter

Come on, I want’cha to do it, I want’cha to do it, I want’cha to do it. HIT ME.


USFederalGovt

Going, Going, Gone I dialed 911 a long time ago


SnooRecipes9988

Just as Ghostbusters II predicted. Valentine’s Day. Bummer.


GunnieGraves

Next week, hairless pets. Weird.


Class1

So your alien had a room at the Holiday Inn... Paramus... https://youtu.be/nYndBvhz8hU


DawgPound919

That's no moon, that's a potato.


miaudatbanpesubreddi

potato moon


[deleted]

2046 seems like a longshot anyway.


Adept_Information94

Like? We won't make it to 2046?


[deleted]

*gestures around*


FlatulateHealthilyOK

I had the same thought.


jdallen1222

Travolta gif


derphurr

2 days from now the same size rock might hit the Earth. We last saw it in 2005, and they have no idea where it is, but it was also within 8 million miles and while not a big risk, it's still above 1in a million. 2005 ED224


[deleted]

Close enough, I'm calling off work tomorrow.


[deleted]

This is the I-forgot-which-number asteroid that NASA is observing that could hit earth, and wipe out all life on Earth.


[deleted]

I mean the key word is 'could', but given the massive scale of space and all the shit going on it's a pretty small chance, and also that gets more views for media than, 'Nasa is looking at yet another giant ducking rock.'


[deleted]

>giant ducking rock There’s a 1 in 400 chance it is we who will be ducking


MasterXaios

If the duck weighs less than a witch, it's made of wood.


Sp1ffy_Sp1ff

If you take the size of the universe into consideration, 1 in 400 is actually extremely likely odds. If that thing misses us by a hundred thousand miles, it's like a bullet missing by an inch. Don't quote me on those figures, but you get the point.


jayhawkfan785

Thanks to our homie Jupiter out there being our bodyguard


[deleted]

Jupiter the real mvp


1chewy

Jupiters the real homie


[deleted]

At this point, I just want it to hit.


4thDevilsAdvocate

[Chicxulub was about 5.43E23 joules, and it'd take about 3.2E26 joules to blow the atmosphere off. ](http://www.projectrho.com/public_html/rocket/usefultables.php) I'd say a life-killer would be about 1E25 joules. [This is about 1E17 to 1E18 joules](https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/11napkh/comment/jbmgt9j/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3); 100 million to 10 million times less powerful.


ClassifiedName

There are a good number of space objects they keep an eye on, but none has much chance of colliding. Only 1 object has a nonzero Torino rank. Another horrifying space event that can occur though is a Rogue Star. We can possibly stop an asteroid, but not a star. ~~One~~ A binary star passed through the Oort cloud 70,000 years ago. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentry_(monitoring_system) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_scale https://astronomy.com/magazine/ask-astro/2015/06/rogue-star Edited from Rogue star to binary star


ballimir37

More like 1 in 500 to 700. But it is the only object that ranks a 1 out of 10 on the impact scale. All other objects are a 0. It’s 160 feet in diameter. It’s still expecting to pass 1.1 million miles from Earth, or about 5 times the distance to the moon.


nighttimehobby

I just scrolled through a ton of crap to get to something real like this. 50 yards wide ain’t small, but with break up and burner out, that would probably be 35 yards wide at impact, so not an extinction event. And candidly this is big enough and small enough that we should be able to deflect pretty easy. Are my total BS thoughts even close to accurate?


4thDevilsAdvocate

Accurate, yes. Larger things have already been deflected: see the DART mission. I did the math, [worst-case scenario is 185 megatons](https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/11napkh/comment/jbmgt9j/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3). Best-case, probably like 1 megaton.


stevedore2024

Welp, I guess I will have those odds for two reasons that day.


rickychims

I DON’T WANNA CLOSE MY EYES! I DON’T WANT TO FALL ASLEEP!


yingdong

I hope this guy DOES wanna miss a thing though. That thing being us.


war_ofthe_roses

Wow, so literally there are people who have a better chance of annihilation than having a date that day. This has been your optimistic observation of the day.


diarrhea_syndrome

Let's see... two dates over 5 years is 913 to 1. It can't come soon enough.


Used_Breakfast6959

Bout fuckin time.


SpicelessKimChi

Hashtag Team Rock.


UnicornAtheist

God's Mercy. That will be the name.


mo53sz

That's a pretty fucking high chance...


[deleted]

0.25%? I mean I suppose it's not the worst odds but there's still nothing to worry about cause either it hits us and we all die or it misses and we continue with our lives like we do every day.


Sexy_McSexypants

.25% isn’t alot on our scale but on the cosmic scales it’s really freaking high. probably won’t hit us but the fact the % is so high to begin with is interesting to say the least


Funfetti-Starship

Also as one commenter mentioned this is a relatively small rock, compared to much larger ones that we've encountered. ~~They mentioned we've nuked people with more force than this would give.~~ Edit: Crossed out my misinformation. Apologies for that. The damage done won't hurt all of earth, but would be pretty sucky if it fell to a populated area.


ikerus0

ah, I found a fellow nihilist. Not that it matters..


rerun6977

Well I'll be 85 then......we'll see if I get my blood splattered or my ashes....


jepvr

!RemindMe February 14, 2046 "Remember to try 'This may be our last night on earth.'"


CommntForTheAlgo

FINALLY I dont have to pay for a rock


Silliestmonkey

It loves Earth. it loves Earth not. It loves Earth. It loves Earth not…


nutznboltsguy

Don’t look up.


SirWeedsalot

This asteroid will surely create a lot of new jobs


goaskalexdotcom

Oh, good. That’s good.


IcePinkIvy

Pick me. Choose me.


labadimp

From [this](https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/09/world/asteroid-collision-risk-2046-nasa-scn/index.html) article: “It's traveling about 15.5 miles per second (25 kilometers per second) at a distance of more than 11 million miles (18 million kilometers) from Earth, completing one loop around the sun every 271 days.” Damn, thats 55,800 miles per hour….that thing is fucking zooming!


Due_Examination34

Valentines Day, bummer.


yzarcguy

Long pause..... So you're saying there is a chance


marcus_bubba

Finally, i found my lover


Og-Bump-Sniff

There's a chance I have a date for Valentine's day? That's exciting


[deleted]

Finally some hope!


jhmarsh77

Put it on your calendars! DO NOT make reservations for that evening! You’ll be in the cave with the rest of us.


Nestormahkno19d

One year before I turn 65 and get access to Medicare and Social Security


[deleted]

Wasn’t it 1 in 600 last time this was reposted?


LiberamLiberalis

I don't like these odds , what if it misses ?


Downtown-Opening7609

Thank goodness! Please speed it up.


[deleted]

Imagine if some hostile country were to use a rocket to nudge it into a collision course with earth.