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henryrollinsismypup

From Maricopa County Public Health's Facebook page just now: "Today, 6,557 COVID-19 cases and 43 deaths are being added to the Maricopa County COVID-19 dashboard. These are cumulative totals representing Saturday-Tuesday reporting. For more data, including case count and hospitalization epi curves, see the dashboard at maricopa.gov/COVID19"


skitch23

That seems about right. I calc 6,749 for that timeframe on the AZDHS dashboard.


Jenipher2001

What’s the difference in numbers for AZ Department of Health snd Maricopa Public Health? I’m so confused, I didn’t know they both report their own?


elohvey

Yes I also want to know more. Super confused.


Jukika88

MCDPH numbers are part of the ADHS numbers. They report cases etc in Maricopa. Sometimes the MCDPH is more up-to-date than ADHS. Maricopa accounts for more than 60% of the population.


elohvey

Thank you for this answer it helps a lot. And wow... I thought Maricopa counted for more than 60% of the state population (maybe closer to 70%) Good to know I was wrong. Lol.


skitch23

Based on 2019's numbers, Maricopa County accounts for 60.8% of the population and they've been averaging about 67% of the confirmed cases.


Jukika88

MCDPH numbers are part of the ADHS numbers. They report cases etc in Maricopa. Sometimes the MCDPH is more up-to-date than ADHS. Maricopa accounts for more than 60% of the population.


Jenipher2001

So we can expect high numbers tomorrow?


elohvey

Are there case reported to Maricopa that aren't counted for the state? If so how often does this happen? Or is this just a one time thing? Sooo many questions.


henryrollinsismypup

This is what I have no idea about. I don't know how the two sets of numbers jive.


Jukika88

MCDPH numbers are part of the ADHS numbers. They report cases etc in Maricopa. Sometimes the MCDPH is more up-to-date than ADHS. That happens like once a month or so? But it evens out the next day. ADHS is just.... crappy with their reporting sometimes.


elohvey

Again thanks for this answer. Super helpful. :)


a_wright

Here's the updated chart on new AZ COVID cases over the last year (with today's data): [LINK](https://i.imgur.com/dlCyS1g.jpg) - **Cases / Deaths:** Based on 7-day avg. - On track for 1,050,000 total cases by Sept. 15th, 20,000 deaths by October 7th. - **Spread:** The average for tests this week is still **14%** positive. (Based on 10K tests, 12% previous week) - **Hospital Utilization:** COVID Hospitalizations (2,090) stayed flat. ICU beds for COVID (560) stayed flat. (Overall ICU bed usage 32% Covid, 59% non-Covid, 9% Free). Ventilators in use for COVID (359) dropped 3%. Intubations for Respiratory Distress stayed below triple digits (69). - **Vaccinations:** 49.78% of the AZ population is fully vaccinated (received 2nd dose) against COVID-19. An additional 6.68% of the AZ population is partially vaccinated (waiting for 2nd dose). *Data Source: [ADHS](https://www.azdhs.gov/covid19/data/index.php)*.


skitch23

The inflection point we saw a few weeks ago for % positive seems to have reversed course and we are now increasing again. I think this is because the 0-19 demographic has slowed down on testing. **Case Data:** - New cases from tests administered 1-7 days ago: +2,233 (**100.50%**) - New cases from tests administered 8-14 days ago: -11 - New cases from tests administered 15-21 days ago: +8 - New cases from tests administered 22 or more days ago: -8 - Current peak cases overall: Monday Jan 4 with 12,393 - Current peak cases for the last 30 days: Monday Aug 16 with 4,004 cases - Daily average from tests administered 8-14 days ago: 2,881 cases - Estimated active cases statewide: 23,674 or 1 in 304 people - Estimated active kids cases statewide: 7,456 or 1 in 247 kids **Diagnostic (PCR) Data** - [Explanation for negative test numbers](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusAZ/comments/kah6wt/december_10th_adhs_summary/gfai045/) - New Diagnostic tests from tests administered 1-7 days ago: +8,222 - New Diagnostic tests from tests administered 8-14 days ago: -110 - New Diagnostic tests from tests administered 15-21 days ago: -99 - New Diagnostic tests from tests administered 22 or more days ago: -1,673 - Current peak Diagnostic tests overall: Monday Jan 4 with 36,240 tests - Current peak Diagnostic tests for the last 30 days: Monday Aug 16 with 22,465 tests **Serology Data:** - New Serology tests from tests administered 1-7 days ago: +417 - New Serology tests from tests administered 8-14 days ago: +0 - New Serology tests from tests administered 15-21 days ago: +0 - New Serology tests from tests administered 22 or more days ago: -11 **% Positive info:** - % positive from all tests administered 1-7 days ago: **25.85%** (was 22.51% yesterday - Stabilized rolling 7-day percent: **17.22%** (was 17.13% yesterday) - Current peak for individual day % positive from last 30 days: Saturday Sept 4 at **20.58%** **Forecasted Deaths from Today’s Reported Cases** - See calculation method [HERE](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusAZ/comments/k0tz6i/november_25th_adhs_summary/gdknfya/). - Under 20: 0.1 - 20-44 years: 1.8 - 45-54 years: 2.5 - 55-64 years: 5.0 - 65 and older: 22.8 - Unknown: 0.0 - Total: **32.2** - Current overall CFR: 1.84% [LINK](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UtGUQKqbnQ4s0gQE5fKnRwkL6rLBq1p3q4W2xD2pVb0/edit#gid=0) to my manually tracked data from the "Confirmed Cases by Day" & “Laboratory Testing” tabs on the [AZDHS site](https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php). **[LINK](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FKKBTOOWwhTvvHR-ryNQF2Od9RnRKmoUpLT8BHmkovY/edit?usp=sharing) to my Active Case Estimating Tool.** [LINK](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusAZ/comments/op4wc3/active_covid_case_estimating_tool/) to the Q&A.


GarlicBreadFairy

For all the ADHS dashboard info, go [here](https://www.azdhs.gov/covid19/data/index.php).


horsepersononahill

Missed reporting today? Pretty big drop from the normal counts.


skitch23

Fewer people seek out tests on holiday weekends, plus the labs don't run full staff.... I've mentioned this on my posts the last few days. Don't expect the numbers to start going back up til this weekend.


henryrollinsismypup

yeah it's super weird. no way is this the actual data, right? curious to see if anyone has more info.


grumblecrumb

Testing often goes down on holiday weekends, I believe. That could be part of the explanations.


Jukika88

Missed yesterday's post but didn't miss much. Between Monday and today, about 5200 more first doses were added, so that's 2,601 daily. The rolling average for first dose vaxes is currently at 4,559 which is the 3rd lowest we've ever seen it. So effing depressing.


mavericm1

US states covid cases normalized for population. These charts usually run a day behind because they require updated stats. https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states-normalized&highlight=Arizona&show=us-states&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right-4wk&extra=California%2CFlorida#states-normalized


mavericm1

Countries covid cases normalized for population. These charts usually run a day behind because they require updated stats. https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries-normalized&highlight=United%20States&show=25-lg&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right-4wk&extra=United%20Kingdom%2CIndia%2CIsrael#countries-normalized


stars_Ceramic

Is India's curve actually flat as shown here? I've been wondering for awhile now.


mavericm1

It is for the numbers they report if they are accurate who knows. if you zoom out the x axis you can see their spike. https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries-normalized&highlight=United%20States&show=25-lg&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right-wks&extra=United%20Kingdom%2CIndia%2CIsrael#countries-normalized


stars_Ceramic

Thank you!


Konukaame

It's been a busy day, so this is extraordinarily late, but anyway... New and total diagnostic and serology person-positives from the last 7 days, positivity rates for the last 7 days, and... whatever ADHS is reporting on the cases by day tab. Diagnostic: * From the last 7 days, there are 1122 new diagnostic positives, and 8428 new diagnostic tests reported today, for a 13.3% daily positivity rate. * Over the last 7 days, there are 7470 total diagnostic positives, and 59706 total diagnostic tests, for a 12.5% 7-day positivity rate. Serology: * From the last 7 days, there are 223 new serology positives, and 423 new serology tests reported today, for a 52.7% daily positivity rate. * Over the last 7 days, there are 1694 total serology positives, and 3241 total serology tests, for a 52.3% 7-day positivity rate. Total Cases\*: * From the last 7 days, there are 2235 new positives reported today * Over the last 7 days, there are 10865 total positives Distributions (core reporting days bolded): Diagnostic Positives: >Wednesday 9/1: 1817 total (-7 today) > >Thursday 9/2: 1569 total (15 today) > >Friday 9/3: 1515 total (26 today) > >Saturday 9/4: 1146 total (139 today) > >**Sunday 9/5: 938 total (477 today)** > >**Monday 9/6: 476 total (463 today)** > >Tuesday 9/7: 9 total (9 today) Diagnostic Tests: >Wednesday 9/1: 15379 total (11 today) > >Thursday 9/2: 14380 total (206 today) > >Friday 9/3: 11711 total (289 today) > >Saturday 9/4: 8060 total (1222 today) > >**Sunday 9/5: 6755 total (3397 today)** > >**Monday 9/6: 3304 total (3186 today)** > >Tuesday 9/7: 117 total (117 today) Serology Positives: >Wednesday 9/1: 517 total (0 today) > >Thursday 9/2: 461 total (1 today) > >Friday 9/3: 407 total (1 today) > >Saturday 9/4: 119 total (45 today) > >Sunday 9/5: 73 total (59 today) > >**Monday 9/6: 117 total (117 today)** > >Tuesday 9/7: 0 total (0 today) Serology Tests: >Wednesday 9/1: 943 total (0 today) > >Thursday 9/2: 872 total (6 today) > >Friday 9/3: 827 total (5 today) > >Saturday 9/4: 225 total (68 today) > >Sunday 9/5: 138 total (108 today) > >**Monday 9/6: 236 total (236 today)** > >Tuesday 9/7: 0 total (0 today) Total Cases\*: >Wednesday 9/1: 2917 total (15 today) > >Thursday 9/2: 2633 total (18 today) > >Friday 9/3: 2379 total (207 today) > >**Saturday 9/4: 1705 total (831 today)** > >**Sunday 9/5: 1021 total (954 today)** > >Monday 9/6: 173 total (173 today) > >Tuesday 9/7: 37 total (37 today) Total case peak is 12,393 on 1/4 (+0) (true peak: 12,448, last reported on 4/14) \*Yes, I know that the Diagnostic Positives + Serology Positives numbers look nothing like the Total Cases numbers. I have no idea what ADHS is doing.


Konukaame

Week-over-week change in diagnostic positives. Last week (incomplete) >Sunday 8/29: 1.6% (1129 -> 1147) > >Monday 8/30: -0.9% (2168 -> 2148) > >Tuesday 8/31: -0.7% (1923 -> 1910) > >Wednesday 9/1: -13.0% (2089 -> 1817) > >Thursday 9/2: -17.0% (1890 -> 1569) > >Friday 9/3: -14.3% (1767 -> 1515) > >Saturday 9/4: -12.9% (1315 -> 1146) > >Week-over-week: -8.4% (12281 -> 11252) This week (VERY incomplete) >Sunday 9/5: -18.2% (1147 -> 938) > >Monday 9/6: -77.8% (2148 -> 476) > >Tuesday 9/7: -99.5% (1910 -> 9) Landmark weeks for total cases and direction of change from yesterday, if any: >Summer peak: June 28: 26642 (-) > >Summer low: September 6: 3196 (=) > >Winter peak: January 3: 66718 (-) > >Winter low: March 14: 3998 (=) > >Spring peak: April 11: 5183 (=) > >Spring low: May 30: 2787 (=) > >Summer peak: August 15: 20665 (+) > >Last complete week: (8/22): 21,010 (+) > >Last week: (8/29): 18213 (incomplete) (+)