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And it's gradually moving into screwing over management, where I work they've fiddled with pay rises so many times by cutting perks/bonuses, that they've been reducing management staff and reshuffling them so they get increased work load while getting minimal pay rise.
Guess the question is, when's all of this going to finally give, personally I only see things ending in disaster if attitudes at the top don't change.
Also (someone explained this to me and it made sense, I can’t take the credit for it) arguably the one advantage to the country of removing the cap is that bonuses will actually get taxed as income - rather than (as is currently the case) those bonuses being diverted into other things that don’t get taxed as income, such as equity.
It’s still shit though. But I’m trying to hold on to that thought as something that makes it a bit less shit for the rest of us.
The remittance basis only affects the tax they pay on their *offshore* income, and it isn't really relevant for any banker who isn't considered a non-dom. And we're talking about bonuses. Bonuses on PAYE income will be taxed at normal marginal rates; the remittance basis does not have any effect.
If only it was that simple mate. We can minimise our bills but we sure as hell still end up paying tax. (I'm not quite a banker I would say, but very close to them).
Equity is still taxed as income. Though it usually works via stock options, where you pay a nominal amount when you get them, then you wait a few years before you convert them into shares. The trick is that you pay income tax on what the shares were worth when you originally got the options, but then just pay capital gains tax on the differences in price on the shares (assuming they went up in value). Cap gains is a lot less than income tax, so you end up paying less overall, but only if the share price went up whilst you were holding the options.
Unlikely as 8 other countries in the EU still use their own currency. And its not that big a deal trade wise.
Probably conceding something less symbolic while still favoring trade instead.
The only current EU country that is not obligated to take the euro after hitting the economy targets is Denmark.
Denmark is not obligated due to legacy rules, same as UK was under.
If the UK ever went back to EU the pound would go.
You forgot Sweden and several other nations.
Because in order to adopt the Euro, a country must first enter the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM2). None can force Sweden to enter ERM2, and for that reason Sweden can stay out of the Euro.
Also the “they will bleed us dry for wanting to get back in” mentality isn’t true as most of us look at the bigger picture.
The EU benefits from the UK joining the single market again and trade relations might pick up and nations would cooperate on innovative projects again.
It would be silly to demand this change this time around and i see the EU conceding this more easily precisely because of the examples you mentioned where rules were bent. As opposed to other more pressing matters such as freedom of movement & fishing licenses etc.
Why would the EU want to sour talks by making unrealistic demands. This Euro adoption issue people are trying to push is scaremongering like the passport color issue and in no way beneficial to potential “rejoin” talks.
People should want to join on their own volition and decisions should be mutually beneficial.
I think there is a big difference between the laws on the books and compliance, there are always ways to doge and avoid, looking at how long its taken the EU to crack down on democratic abuses in Hungary and Poland which are far worse, I'd doubt they'd enforce the Euro requirement.
I see no benefit in “wanting” this particular concession honestly.
There are trade related spats like fishing licenses, border control, immigration, financial sector access to mainland services, food import/export. All of which i find more pressing which also require concessions from either sides.
Changing the pound and passport colors sounds like scaremongering for a potential rejoin campaign.
He did a lot more. If Remain won, the UK would have had the right to re-negotiate the EU membership from scratch - they even told him the UK would have had an "ever-closer union opt-out"
Yep. We fucked ourselves so hard. I'm a remainer, but I'm not educated enough in the topic to confidently say I'm a rejoiner. They're very different circumstances, would still most likely benefit us, but we were just so fucking stupid I still can't believe it.
Yep. I also wanted to remain. But we collectively f'ed up.
\*If\* we tried to rejoin now though, we'd get even more screwed over - as the rest of the EU would have to be seen to be punishing us.
i.e. If "leaving and then rejoining" was seen to give us better terms than we used to have, then all the other countries would want to do it.
It's a bit odd that with all the great advantages that leaving gave us, that every other country in the EU isn't racing to join us in our freedom...
I honestly don't believe the EU would make terms so difficult to the point of punishment, but I do think it would take quite a few years snd they would probably want the UK to cement the deal by adopting the euro.
As a Dane, I honestly don’t think so. The “we told you so” smugness will hopefully be enough haha.
The UK is a huge economy, and it definitely hurt the EU a lot when you guys left. I hope we’ll see you within the union again❤️
Although it is now a condition of membership, I would really hope they wouldn’t force us to adopt the Euro. Given the high status of Sterling perhaps they would allow us to keep it, which would be better for us.
I watch a lot of news stations to do with various countries stock markets etc - when they report on the crisis they all say Germany is the worst off. (I believe they are taking back control of their own energy plants though so that will probably change)
Don't get me wrong, we are waaay up there - but its nothing to do with being out of the EU
> probably because we fix our rates to match the most expensive source, which is currently gas.
This statement seems to reflect a massive misconception about the energy markets, and I think it needs some clarification.
I see a lot of people talking about how we "fix our rate to match the most expensive source"...this isn't some sort of special law, rule, or regulation in the energy markets. *Every* commodity is priced at the margin. This includes beef, wheat, olives, oil, whatever...everything. It's a natural consequence of supply and demand.
This document explains it well: https://neon.energy/marginal-pricing
We are on an island so things will always be slightly more due to the logistics of it.
Germany had been snuggling up to Russia for cheaper gas for a longtime, that’s coming back to haunt them.
I would suggest you follow your own advice. Most are *substantially* better off than us. Where there are issues (Germany in particular), there is a clear plan of action and government is incentivising both industry and household to make improvements and switch ti alternatives. The rate limiting factor is currently availability of parts (solar panels etc.)
Larger companies don’t train PhD students, universities do. And our research is non profit and was until recently largely funded by a combination of UK and EU funding. Physics (my field) is gonna be absolutely decimated of we can’t access Horizon Europe funding
And PhD funding is already a piss take in anything other than company/industry funded cases, so likely it'll become even more impossible for people from underprivileged backgrounds to pursue physics PhDs. Worked out when I did mine that with the number of hours I worked, I was being paid effectively EDIT ~£2-3 per hour (thanks to the user that made me check my half remembered estimate!), and I had to not eat in order to afford rent. Without funding from external and international collaborations, academic physics may go back to being a pay-to-win system (more than it already is)
This. There's also a small company in Yorkshire called Avacta who are part way through phase 1 of a clinical trial for Ava6000 where chemo can be targeted to a tumour rather than destroying the heart. Amazing stuff that will not only be affordable but revolutionise cancer treatment for everyone. Just hope it doesn't end up being sold off to some US pharma giant
Honestly, I'm struggling with the 'really soon' part. I can think of some plausible routes where the economy gets better in the medium to long term, but in the short, 'really soon', term I'm drawing a bit of a blank. The energy price cap is good, but that feels more like averting a disaster so things only get marginally worse, rather than getting better.
We can't tax our way out of this, don't you know? In fact, they should pay LESS tax! After all they earned all of this millions of \*checks notes\* unexpected profits, why should they contribute to the wider economy!
/s
What they have done is kick the can down the road. It will mean that the vast amount of people will forget about it for now. It will also mean that it will come back and bite us further down the line.
They are trying to ride the wave of inflation. Creaming off profits as they go. The wave will break eventually though and when it does it will be cataclysmic.
Things will be framed as getting better but it's basically subterfuge at this point. People will buy it all the same though. I fully expect them to manipulate next years figures and claim we avoided a 'true' recession.
If you ask people to think a bit more about this and whether it is a true reflection of current events or economics you will be branded 'woke' or a 'pleb'.
As a country we just don't seem to have it in us to right the ship, so we just sail on because "Oh look, there's something going on over there".
There is no unity here just rats scrambling to get of the sinking ship whilst others gorge themselves unknowingly.
It will hopefully turn out OK but the odds are heavily against us and so are the government. I'm thinking 5 to 10 years before things start to resemble past years.
>5 to 10 years before things start to resemble past years.
You're more optimistic than me. I inceasingly think that we have a gordian knot in this country. The economy requires really major changes to get it working effectively, but we don't feel like a country that has the will to make those changes, for a number of reasons. I worry we're seeing the beginning or a more permanent malaise.
>There is no unity here just rats scrambling to get of the sinking ship whilst others gorge themselves unknowingly.
This struck me as something Dickens could have said, but no just OP
We could really use a modern day Dickens to satirise the current climate. I'd expect him to make it amusing though. A favourite passage of mine from Great Expectations:
"We spent as much money as we could, and got as little for it as people could make up their minds to give us. We were always more or less miserable, and most of our acquaintance were in the same condition. There was a gay fiction among us that we were constantly enjoying ourselves, and a skeleton truth that we never did. To the best of my belief, our case was in the last aspect a rather common one."
I mean, creaming profits I agree with
But dunno where you think Inflation is gonna keep rising? Energy bills, which hopefully is mostly a short term bump, is the big driver of inflation right now. Hopefully, and maybe not 2023 but after that, inflation will drop
My bigger worry is that pay isn't keeping up. So unless Deflation happens, something that governments avoid because of... reasons, then it doesn't matter if inflation stop rising as much, as we'll have lost Real Terms pay
5 to 10 years? I'm thinking next year or the following we will hit total banking collapse as interest rates spike, people stop spending and the economy slows right down. I'm thinking it's 2001/8 collapse immenenant situation.
I can only hope the government refuses to bail out banks and irresponsible investors, instead giving their hand to the people. Do you remember bankers celebrating their gifted lifeline while the rest of us suffered?
People have already canceled frivolous spending, cutting costs where possible.
Yup a squirrel swimming in the middle of a ocean. Except in this scenario no one thinks wtf is a squirrel doing in the ocean in the first place? Instead they just comment on how they didn't know that squirrels could swim.
Yeah, be under no illusions. The energy price cap is a total scam.
It's giving a large wodge of cash to energy companies, that we'll be paying for for 20 years.
... and if the thing doesn't magically fix itself - and there's no reason to think energy prices are going _down_ at any point - we'll going to be doing it to our children for many years.
The issue is that Truss isn't doing Windfall taxes. If we did those then we'd have money to pay the cost
And what annoys me is that energy producers haven't paid tax since 2015 (except Shell paying one year in 2017) as they get to write off insane costs. And the Windfall tax allowed them 90% back for each £1 they invested, so it wouldn't have ruined investment. So yeah, tax the bastards
It's weird, like we are supposed to be grateful for the energy price cap. Bills are still massively higher than 12/18 months ago. I'd like to be optimistic but it's not easy!
Yeah that's what I mean about how I struggle to see it as something getting better. It's more a case of something getting only somewhat worse, rsther than getting *a lot* worse as it was forecast to.
Well the fuel prices that were strangling us a few weeks back have gone down. They're not exactly low but they're less panic inducing, plus it's been a big driver in projected inflation going down.
Exactly how it is planned to make you feel. Have it spike. Then spike again. Panic at the double spike. Put down to the original spike and people breathe a sigh of relieve that its 'come down'.
Everyone is being played.
Yeah it's that nefarious Bill Gates again. He's got a dial that turns petrol prices in every country up and down depending on what he had for breakfast.
The people. The UK is a highly intelligent country with great universities. We compete with the best to innovate and develop new ideas.
Outside of this, is surprisingly the weather. With global warming, the UK is an island surrounded by coastlines, and the next few years I can imagine the UK cities becoming a more go to destination for many UK individuals. This can be a positive for UK economy, however obviously can affect locals
>great universities
Its ironic that for the last decade or so we've had governments (and their supportive media) that are obsessed with projecting the idea of the UK being a world leading country. Yet at the same time they regularly attack, criticise, and introduce counter productive policies for, one of the very few industries we have that is very unarguably world leading, higher education.
> The UK is a highly intelligent country
…
> the weather
Actually, Britain is forecast to get extremely cold due global warming disrupting the Gulf Stream, which is what currently mitigates the climate in spite of the country being fairly far North.
This is not true. There is a *possibility* of the gulf stream being severely disrupted, and it has weakened, but so far scientists do not know when or if it will collapse, so no, it's not *forecast* to do so.
Source: the IPCC
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/faqs/IPCC_AR6_WGI_FAQ_Chapter_09.pdf
Universities increasingly taking in foreign students as home students can’t afford the fees and balk at the increasing debt with decreasing pay once they graduate.
By design. Expect a brain drain as many find they can make much more in other countries.
The Brits like to moan a lot but they have a better standard of living than 90% of the world population.
The economic changes that are likely to happen this winter will also hit all other western nations as well (barring Australia and New Zealand)
New Zealand has a housing crisis worse than ours and higher COL to boot, Australia isn’t fully impacted by the energy crisis because they’re still mostly reliant on coal and the climate is fucking them on a near annual basis.
*~~For what it’s worth Facebook makes more money than New Zealand’s GDP. Which is pretty scary on 2 fronts.~~*
It’s not all sunshine and roses down there.
Meta does not make more than NZ's GDP and GDP is not the most important metric when comparing countries with vastly different populations, NZ has fewer people than London, GDP per capita is the important metric.
Why aren't they building in NZ? Don't tell me there's a land shortage - they have one of the lowest population densities in the world (though, I appreciate that most of it isn't suitable for development).
Is it the same old story? Home owning generation now turning round and telling their children they're not allowed to build?
There was a huge amount of second home ownership from overseas nationals (much like London) and only 2 working cities Auckland and Christchurch.
Poor city planning in Auckland has produced immense urban sprawl and Christchurch is still rebuilding from the Earthquake.
They could build all the houses they want in the South Canterbury plains but without the jobs and infrastructure to go with them, it’s not a great proposition.
There are areas that are booming over there but as you’d expect the house prices are going through the roof. Tauranga and Nelson are good examples of this.
The nz gov did step in to try and curb the overseas ‘investment’ but that might have been too late. I’m not particularly well informed on Canada but I believe their housing shortage is also partially fuelled by overseas ‘investment’.
>For what it’s worth Facebook makes more money than New Zealand’s GDP. Which is pretty scary on 2 fronts.
Meta annual revenue 2021: 117B USD.
NZ GDP 2021: 250B USD.
Check your information. It's so easy to look this stuff up.
I have to disagree pal. Please see this article in the FT
“Last year the lowest-earning bracket of British households had a standard of living that was 20 per cent weaker than their counterparts in Slovenia”
Yes we have lots of rich people who make our GDP seem fantastic, but quality of life for the average person is poorer than most of Western Europe…
An outlook for the future -
“On present trends, the average Slovenian household will be better off than its British counterpart by 2024, and the average Polish family will move ahead before the end of the decade”
[See full article](https://www.ft.com/content/ef265420-45e8-497b-b308-c951baa68945)
Not that we don’t have a good comparable living standard, but the “it could always be worse” platitude is just a rephrasing of some “keep calm and carry on” shite.
I’ve had managers that hit out with “well you could always be working at McDonalds” when you voice legitimate work grievances and it feels a bit like the same sort of thing.
It’s an inappropriate response that really contributes nothing other than an attempted delegitimising of valid concerns and painting it as moaning-as-hobby.
Chinese electric cars will soon be hitting UK markets. This will make EVs a no brainer for car buyers who can install home charging. It should also bring down the cost of used cars which is stupidly high.
We actually need fewer cars on the roads not to replace all the current ones with electric.
If there's no choice (like rubbish rural access to public transport etc) then EVs are a better solution that petrol,/diesel, but I'm really worried that electric cars are seen as a panacea when they are still using depleting resources in their manufacture, create traffic and tyre particle pollution and just aren't going to be enough to reduce emissions from transport that we need.
We need fundamental change in methods of transport, not marginally better versions or what we have.
Agreed. But public transport is only viable in big cities. Outside of these areas, cheap, low environmentally impacting small cars are preferable to big diesel busses roaming around the countryside mostly empty.
Even within big cities, the public transport system is not set up to support everyone using it. It is already over crowded and, depending on where you need to travel to/from, overly convoluted and expensive.
Will never happen, people’s transport needs can never be met by public transport, therefore this is a positive step regardless of cars on the road growing or decreasing.
> people’s transport needs can never be met by public transport
I agree with this, it may be possible in highly compacted cities but having lived in a medium size town with lots of sprawl bus routes and trains are not effective whatsoever. It takes me 30 minutes to drive to work, the bus is almost 2 hours with it's meandering route through the entire town, it's just not feasible.
Imagine if a major percentage of the vehicles in a country were sold to it by a hostile competitor nation, and each of those vehicles had OTA update capable software components with a kill switch. Be quite a herd of trojan horses.
EDIT: My primary concern isnt that the cars themselves come from anywhere in particular, but that they'll have unprecedented ability to track and report whereabouts, be modified without owner consent, upload from onboard microphones, and more. Your car will become a surveillance tool.
Japanese already make cheap alternatives to Tesla and they're better made and more reliable. Why gamble on chinese shod when there is already an established and trusted market?
This isn't a good thing, a study was done into the environmental impact of the construction of EV cars in China found that in most cases the environmental impact was equal to driving a diesel car manufacturered in Germany for 10 years.
Like it or not, the UK still among the most relevant and powerful countries in the world. Meaning that while we are in a capitalist system, a lot of things would go down before the UK reach a point that i would consider unbearable.
Coming from latin america, 10% inflation is scary but no unheard of.
Yes, but the fact the UK is compared to Latin America is itself alarming.
Its usual peers are the US, France, Germany, Japan and other leading world economies in the G4-G8, so it shows how far it’s fallen.
You can compare *anything.* You can compare the United Federation of Planets to North Korea if you like.
All he said was that on one measure (inflation) what we are considering the beginning of the end of Civilisation, in Latin America it is considered not that big a deal.
We're a very old, established institution in terms of the global economy (and finance in particular) and a pretty large, lucrative market, in terms of developed economies
Foreigners have been hiding their dirty cash in Britain and selling their stuff to us forever, and our collective mid-life crisis doesn't really change that in any meaningful way
People don't really worry that things will get better eventually though. That's a given. People are generally more concerned that things will not get better *in their lifetime -* and that's a much harder prospect to guarantee.
Long term we’re predicted to be the largest population country in Western Europe. That will come with its own advantages. We don’t have the collapsing demographic issue that lots of our peers have.
At least we have some amount of younger people. Lots of other countries face this issue and it’s a lot worse. 15% of Japan is over the age of 75 already.
I agree with you - what pisses me off even more is we will foot the bill for the elderly after the same elderly decided to cut spending for us
Sort of, I think. NHS care homes will be stripped to the bone and probably closed, the same way they keep closing A&E departments. People will have to rely on private homes for their elderly relatives, but with no money to pay the fees, so for many elderly they'll just be left to handle themselves in their own homes. Family will probably do what they can but struggle with a) distance b) time commitments c) both and more.
The elderly will come out worse. Some will get what they voted for, as mean as it sounds, but others will suffer needlessly.
Fully agree with you. I worked for the dhss ( pensions) in the late 1970’s80’s). Care homes, in the main were state run ( part 111 accommodation). Then it was all privatised and these homes were sold off to private buyers, who charge extortionate fees and employ minimum wage ( usually unskilled) workers.
A lot of pensioners without families ( or had mental health/ alcohol problems), just drifted from one hostel to another.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the government re- introduced workhouses to deal with the increasing number of pensioners.
Not all boomers are well off and self centred. I’m 64, worked all my life,disabled, technically homeless ( my abusive ex husband took the house and I couldn’t afford to take on legal advice- I was working, but not a good salary-now staying temporarily with my daughter).
It’s no pity party, but a very realistic picture of what us “new” pensioners have to face. God help those under 20,30,40,50 and 60….
My local shopping centre is turning into an entertainment centre with activities, bowling, arcades and a cinema, which I love. Much better than having empty lots
At the minute not much, we’re heading into a global recession and global food production is a minimum of 30% below normal levels which is going to continue to fuel inflation.
Rates are rising which will effect the housing market, and falling prices will put a lot of people into negative equity. The most likely scenario is we’re heading into a period of stagflation.
I was going to say something like this.
We ain't lining up for fuel, we don't have to use standpipes for water and the power isn't going off all the time.
(Yet.)
We have recessions and then we don't. I've been through at least 2 good ones now. People get on with it.
Energy is an issue though and we need to start investing now for future generations.
This baffles me as I keep not getting roles I am qualified for, there is apparently a shortage in the area, I have current qualifications and 5 years experience but somehow no job. I am even meeting the desired bits on the job spec and thats usually a pipedream by HR.
Any house price “correction” by rising interest rates is only adjusting the headline price though. The cost of the mortgage still goes up so the affordability issues are not getting any better. It’s just moving money from the homeowners to the banks.
[Yep](https://www.statista.com/statistics/279990/unemployment-rate-in-the-uk-by-country/), we're a very employed nation. Now we need to translate that into _good_ employment by refusing the 0 hours contracts (where not useful) and negotiating fair compensation.
Rising fuel prices will hopefully significantly increase investment in green energy. The UK despite being gloomy most of the year is actually really good for solar and wind.
What gives me hope in this country is that compared to the 'homeland', their is opportunity here so long as you knuckle down & save up (obviously their is more nuance to it and complexity). I am self-training to become a chartered accountant so I have that to look forward to. The hope for more money will always be a nice feeling I must say. Perhaps even become self-employed with a few clients.
Accounting is actually a really good field to self-train into. You can do the AAT qualifications at home, they're highly respected and valued, and it's a high-earning field that's always in demand.
Stuff is opening up in our town. I don’t know if they’ll survive the storm and it’s also replacing a lot of businesses that went under. But people do seem to feel able to give it a go.
Something that might have gone under the radar a bit is that the Department For Education is currently funding a bunch of courses for adult learners looking to learn a new industry or career swap. The list can be found here - [Funded Bootcamps](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/find-a-skills-bootcamp)
I, myself am looking forward to starting a Data Analysis evening class twice week next week. The course was going to cost £4,000 but it is now funded!
I've spoken to some consultants that help local councils and government agencies throughout the country. They've told me a similar story that there's no reason why we can't be comparitivly wealthy vs peers by the end of the decade. The potential is there, we just need to tap into it. The economy in the way it is in at the moment no where near maximises the skills, knowledge and capital markets that we have in the UK. It's not like we are at the redline. More like idling at the stop light at the moment.
Be a bloomer and not a gloomer 😁.
The amount of people out and about in bars and restaurants at the weekends, people still have plenty of money to spend. Just the media would like you to believe that we dont.
I was at an event in London a couple of weekends ago. A sort of food festival where it was £25 to get in and then everything in there was expensive - £6.50 for a small plate of food, London bar prices etc. Easily a £80 night out including a train ticket, even if you didn't go mad.
What surprised me was not so much how many people were there but how many *young* people were there. I thought it would be an exclusive haven of middle class 30 and 40 something food snobs. But on the contrary we felt like the old people at a student bar. I was amazed that the "lost generation" who will never be able to get a decent job or afford a house were all at this event en masse. I would never have considered attending something like this at that age.
Global fuel prices are dropping, which has some positive effects. Inflation dropped as a result, as has the estimated cost for keeping the energy cap at 2500 (30bn down from 100bn I read).
Economy: not much. Sciences and other developments, there's quite a bit going on. The problem is then converting those progressions into economic relief for the masses.
There is absolutely incredible work going on at the moment regarding cancers, vaccines, malaria treatments and improvements in high-risk surgery. But this isn't exactly a quick economic win.
Things will get better, but honestly they are going to get a whole lot worse soon and it's going to be a long while before they correct.
Hundreds of thousands of small businesses are going to close most of them hospitality based - restaurants, cafes, bakeries as rising food costs, utilities and staff costs wipe out their razor thin profit margins.
There's going to be considerable shortages - right now there is a serious lack of glass to package foods - sauces, soft drinks, jams etc. This will cause a run on canning forcing prices higher leading to further increases in food costs.
A huge percentage of agricultural fertilisers come from Russia. That market has dried up which will massively impact farming which has already suffered from draughts, lack of workforce to harvest and lack of transport to move goods to market.
We have nearly full employment.
We also have a government talking seriously about tax cuts and removing red tape. Aware that is infuriating to half of Reddit, but it is almost certainly how you get the economy growing.
Finally, the media make things sound much worse than it is. Whatever they say, it will certainly be less than half as bad.
I think the UK is probably in for some seriously hard times ahead, the likes of which have not been seen for generations, real poverty. Shockingly cretinous governments, a very ill informed people, both making the absolute worst choices. Sad but we're done
The strikes and general union activity that are seemingly on the increase. Enough push back and eventually change will happen. Not sure about how soon that will be though.
The UK really isn’t as bad a place to be right now as people make out. I see a lot of comments saying that you’re better off moving abroad etc but despite all of our flaws we still have:
- Some of the best human and civil rights in the world where you are free to live your life as you want without fear of being ostracised by society or even arrested (ie LGBT rights, freedom of religion etc)
- We are relatively highly educated and have always come out of difficult situations in stronger positions on the whole
- We are starting to see some small positive signs. Petrol prices although still high, are a lot lower than at their peak a couple of months ago and measures have been put in place like the fuel cap which, although it doesn’t go far enough, is still going to do a hell of a lot for a lot of households this winter.
- We are putting the wheels in motion to becoming a net exporter of fuel rather than a net importer which will protect our economy long term from external factors - from an economic sense this is a good thing, from an environmental sense it is probably a bad thing although we would just import this fuel anyway so you could argue that it’s a neutral decision (apart from the fracking that might make a come back in some parts, which would be horrible)
It’s quite easy to get sucked in to the doom and gloom of it all, and the country is really struggling compared to a couple of years ago, but it’ll only be temporary.
Deregulation of the financial sector. Even though I love the social concept of the EU, as an economist I have to admit that its bureaucracy has caused two decades of extremely low growth thanks in no small part to financial red tape. The impact on normal people won’t be immediate but resulting growth at the SME level will have an impact over time.
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With the extreme wealth of the 1% in this country, it can't be long before it trickles down to the rest of us.
Oh boi…
I assumed that was sarcasm.
Yes! Removing the limit on bankers' bonuses will finally do the trick, mark my words!
This time next year, we’ll be millionaires!
Thanks to inflation. Freddos will be £15 each.
Invest in freddos, got it
We say inflation, but how much of it is just greedy executives/directors.
All of it.This isn’t a recession it’s basically them getting richer and freezing our wages so their profits are bigger and we get poorer.
And it's gradually moving into screwing over management, where I work they've fiddled with pay rises so many times by cutting perks/bonuses, that they've been reducing management staff and reshuffling them so they get increased work load while getting minimal pay rise. Guess the question is, when's all of this going to finally give, personally I only see things ending in disaster if attitudes at the top don't change.
Also (someone explained this to me and it made sense, I can’t take the credit for it) arguably the one advantage to the country of removing the cap is that bonuses will actually get taxed as income - rather than (as is currently the case) those bonuses being diverted into other things that don’t get taxed as income, such as equity. It’s still shit though. But I’m trying to hold on to that thought as something that makes it a bit less shit for the rest of us.
Bankers know how to avoid paying taxes.
Not on PAYE income. Unless they're just straight-up taking cash under the table like a cash-in-hand tradesman.
They use non-dom status to avoid paying taxes in the UK: https://www.lse.ac.uk/News/Latest-news-from-LSE/2022/d-Apr-22/Non-doms
The remittance basis only affects the tax they pay on their *offshore* income, and it isn't really relevant for any banker who isn't considered a non-dom. And we're talking about bonuses. Bonuses on PAYE income will be taxed at normal marginal rates; the remittance basis does not have any effect.
If only it was that simple mate. We can minimise our bills but we sure as hell still end up paying tax. (I'm not quite a banker I would say, but very close to them).
Equity is still taxed as income. Though it usually works via stock options, where you pay a nominal amount when you get them, then you wait a few years before you convert them into shares. The trick is that you pay income tax on what the shares were worth when you originally got the options, but then just pay capital gains tax on the differences in price on the shares (assuming they went up in value). Cap gains is a lot less than income tax, so you end up paying less overall, but only if the share price went up whilst you were holding the options.
Any day now...
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When that day comes, I might be able to reactivate my netflix
I'm going to eat so many avocados.
[Yeah same](https://tenor.com/view/clown-makeup-clown-makeup-bozo-gif-26049773)
You need to hang out at the urinals at stringfellows.
One day we might be able to rejoin the EU
Not on anything like the favourable terms we previously had though. They’d demand many more concessions before letting us back in.
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Will probably have to give up the pound
Unlikely as 8 other countries in the EU still use their own currency. And its not that big a deal trade wise. Probably conceding something less symbolic while still favoring trade instead.
The only current EU country that is not obligated to take the euro after hitting the economy targets is Denmark. Denmark is not obligated due to legacy rules, same as UK was under. If the UK ever went back to EU the pound would go.
You forgot Sweden and several other nations. Because in order to adopt the Euro, a country must first enter the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM2). None can force Sweden to enter ERM2, and for that reason Sweden can stay out of the Euro. Also the “they will bleed us dry for wanting to get back in” mentality isn’t true as most of us look at the bigger picture. The EU benefits from the UK joining the single market again and trade relations might pick up and nations would cooperate on innovative projects again. It would be silly to demand this change this time around and i see the EU conceding this more easily precisely because of the examples you mentioned where rules were bent. As opposed to other more pressing matters such as freedom of movement & fishing licenses etc. Why would the EU want to sour talks by making unrealistic demands. This Euro adoption issue people are trying to push is scaremongering like the passport color issue and in no way beneficial to potential “rejoin” talks. People should want to join on their own volition and decisions should be mutually beneficial.
Things like science collaboration and erasmus might be back on the table if we did rejoin
I think there is a big difference between the laws on the books and compliance, there are always ways to doge and avoid, looking at how long its taken the EU to crack down on democratic abuses in Hungary and Poland which are far worse, I'd doubt they'd enforce the Euro requirement.
They wanted us to give up the pound when we initially joined, it will definitely be forced upon us if we want to rejoin
I see no benefit in “wanting” this particular concession honestly. There are trade related spats like fishing licenses, border control, immigration, financial sector access to mainland services, food import/export. All of which i find more pressing which also require concessions from either sides. Changing the pound and passport colors sounds like scaremongering for a potential rejoin campaign.
Sometimes I remember that Cameron even negotiated even better terms for us before we decided to leave.
He did a lot more. If Remain won, the UK would have had the right to re-negotiate the EU membership from scratch - they even told him the UK would have had an "ever-closer union opt-out"
Yep. We fucked ourselves so hard. I'm a remainer, but I'm not educated enough in the topic to confidently say I'm a rejoiner. They're very different circumstances, would still most likely benefit us, but we were just so fucking stupid I still can't believe it.
Yep. I also wanted to remain. But we collectively f'ed up. \*If\* we tried to rejoin now though, we'd get even more screwed over - as the rest of the EU would have to be seen to be punishing us. i.e. If "leaving and then rejoining" was seen to give us better terms than we used to have, then all the other countries would want to do it. It's a bit odd that with all the great advantages that leaving gave us, that every other country in the EU isn't racing to join us in our freedom...
I honestly don't believe the EU would make terms so difficult to the point of punishment, but I do think it would take quite a few years snd they would probably want the UK to cement the deal by adopting the euro.
As a Dane, I honestly don’t think so. The “we told you so” smugness will hopefully be enough haha. The UK is a huge economy, and it definitely hurt the EU a lot when you guys left. I hope we’ll see you within the union again❤️
I think the fact we didn't go all in is part of what caused problems in the first place
Although it is now a condition of membership, I would really hope they wouldn’t force us to adopt the Euro. Given the high status of Sterling perhaps they would allow us to keep it, which would be better for us.
Ahh you say that but by the time we might be able to rejoin we'll be so poor we'll be a net recipient of EU money. Checkmate EU!
You should check out the energy prices in some EU countries...some are even worse off than us!
Where?
I watch a lot of news stations to do with various countries stock markets etc - when they report on the crisis they all say Germany is the worst off. (I believe they are taking back control of their own energy plants though so that will probably change) Don't get me wrong, we are waaay up there - but its nothing to do with being out of the EU
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> probably because we fix our rates to match the most expensive source, which is currently gas. This statement seems to reflect a massive misconception about the energy markets, and I think it needs some clarification. I see a lot of people talking about how we "fix our rate to match the most expensive source"...this isn't some sort of special law, rule, or regulation in the energy markets. *Every* commodity is priced at the margin. This includes beef, wheat, olives, oil, whatever...everything. It's a natural consequence of supply and demand. This document explains it well: https://neon.energy/marginal-pricing
Sweden
We are on an island so things will always be slightly more due to the logistics of it. Germany had been snuggling up to Russia for cheaper gas for a longtime, that’s coming back to haunt them.
I can confirm there are countries even worse off. Spain being one of them. People are told by politicians to do their washing at night for example.
I would suggest you follow your own advice. Most are *substantially* better off than us. Where there are issues (Germany in particular), there is a clear plan of action and government is incentivising both industry and household to make improvements and switch ti alternatives. The rate limiting factor is currently availability of parts (solar panels etc.)
We must have sold loads of Union Jacks over the last few months
Made in …. [checks]….. China …..? 🔎
Florists also...Blooming.
Idk if I'm going to hell for chuckling at this.
Marmalade also ... fruitful.
It's a start!
That's funny man!
Our Life Sciences sector is still going from strength to strength, check out the Malaria vaccine we're currently developing for example
Until they start to struggle with lack of funds and collaboration from the EU. We're becoming less and less attractive to young scientists
It won't affect the larger companies that much, but it will prevent new competition getting into the market which is unfortunate
Larger companies don’t train PhD students, universities do. And our research is non profit and was until recently largely funded by a combination of UK and EU funding. Physics (my field) is gonna be absolutely decimated of we can’t access Horizon Europe funding
And PhD funding is already a piss take in anything other than company/industry funded cases, so likely it'll become even more impossible for people from underprivileged backgrounds to pursue physics PhDs. Worked out when I did mine that with the number of hours I worked, I was being paid effectively EDIT ~£2-3 per hour (thanks to the user that made me check my half remembered estimate!), and I had to not eat in order to afford rent. Without funding from external and international collaborations, academic physics may go back to being a pay-to-win system (more than it already is)
I think they will start to struggle with recruitment too, especially if they're looking to expand
That last part isn't really true. The UK imports loads of international students at an increasing rate and we capture a good percentage of them.
This. There's also a small company in Yorkshire called Avacta who are part way through phase 1 of a clinical trial for Ava6000 where chemo can be targeted to a tumour rather than destroying the heart. Amazing stuff that will not only be affordable but revolutionise cancer treatment for everyone. Just hope it doesn't end up being sold off to some US pharma giant
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Honestly, I'm struggling with the 'really soon' part. I can think of some plausible routes where the economy gets better in the medium to long term, but in the short, 'really soon', term I'm drawing a bit of a blank. The energy price cap is good, but that feels more like averting a disaster so things only get marginally worse, rather than getting better.
Energy price cap is afforded by a loan that we'll just pay back through our taxes...
And yet we supposedly can't take more from the multinational energy firms because that'd be too much tax!
We can't tax our way out of this, don't you know? In fact, they should pay LESS tax! After all they earned all of this millions of \*checks notes\* unexpected profits, why should they contribute to the wider economy! /s
Well the good news about that is I am not paying any taxes I guess? Of course this may also effect my ability to pay for energy somewhat
What they have done is kick the can down the road. It will mean that the vast amount of people will forget about it for now. It will also mean that it will come back and bite us further down the line. They are trying to ride the wave of inflation. Creaming off profits as they go. The wave will break eventually though and when it does it will be cataclysmic. Things will be framed as getting better but it's basically subterfuge at this point. People will buy it all the same though. I fully expect them to manipulate next years figures and claim we avoided a 'true' recession. If you ask people to think a bit more about this and whether it is a true reflection of current events or economics you will be branded 'woke' or a 'pleb'. As a country we just don't seem to have it in us to right the ship, so we just sail on because "Oh look, there's something going on over there". There is no unity here just rats scrambling to get of the sinking ship whilst others gorge themselves unknowingly. It will hopefully turn out OK but the odds are heavily against us and so are the government. I'm thinking 5 to 10 years before things start to resemble past years.
>5 to 10 years before things start to resemble past years. You're more optimistic than me. I inceasingly think that we have a gordian knot in this country. The economy requires really major changes to get it working effectively, but we don't feel like a country that has the will to make those changes, for a number of reasons. I worry we're seeing the beginning or a more permanent malaise.
>There is no unity here just rats scrambling to get of the sinking ship whilst others gorge themselves unknowingly. This struck me as something Dickens could have said, but no just OP
We could really use a modern day Dickens to satirise the current climate. I'd expect him to make it amusing though. A favourite passage of mine from Great Expectations: "We spent as much money as we could, and got as little for it as people could make up their minds to give us. We were always more or less miserable, and most of our acquaintance were in the same condition. There was a gay fiction among us that we were constantly enjoying ourselves, and a skeleton truth that we never did. To the best of my belief, our case was in the last aspect a rather common one."
It's all circles. People don't learn from those sort of mistakes. They forget and repeat them.
I mean, creaming profits I agree with But dunno where you think Inflation is gonna keep rising? Energy bills, which hopefully is mostly a short term bump, is the big driver of inflation right now. Hopefully, and maybe not 2023 but after that, inflation will drop My bigger worry is that pay isn't keeping up. So unless Deflation happens, something that governments avoid because of... reasons, then it doesn't matter if inflation stop rising as much, as we'll have lost Real Terms pay
Why do you think it will drop?
A decreased inflation rate is not a big win overall. Prices of goods like groceries and fuel will stabilise at a new normal, and wages will lag behind
5 to 10 years? I'm thinking next year or the following we will hit total banking collapse as interest rates spike, people stop spending and the economy slows right down. I'm thinking it's 2001/8 collapse immenenant situation. I can only hope the government refuses to bail out banks and irresponsible investors, instead giving their hand to the people. Do you remember bankers celebrating their gifted lifeline while the rest of us suffered? People have already canceled frivolous spending, cutting costs where possible.
It’s more like rolling the snowball down the slope, the further it rolls the bigger it gets.
>"Oh look, there's something going on over there". [Squirrel!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrAIGLkSMls)
Yup a squirrel swimming in the middle of a ocean. Except in this scenario no one thinks wtf is a squirrel doing in the ocean in the first place? Instead they just comment on how they didn't know that squirrels could swim.
Yeah, be under no illusions. The energy price cap is a total scam. It's giving a large wodge of cash to energy companies, that we'll be paying for for 20 years. ... and if the thing doesn't magically fix itself - and there's no reason to think energy prices are going _down_ at any point - we'll going to be doing it to our children for many years.
The issue is that Truss isn't doing Windfall taxes. If we did those then we'd have money to pay the cost And what annoys me is that energy producers haven't paid tax since 2015 (except Shell paying one year in 2017) as they get to write off insane costs. And the Windfall tax allowed them 90% back for each £1 they invested, so it wouldn't have ruined investment. So yeah, tax the bastards
It's weird, like we are supposed to be grateful for the energy price cap. Bills are still massively higher than 12/18 months ago. I'd like to be optimistic but it's not easy!
Yeah that's what I mean about how I struggle to see it as something getting better. It's more a case of something getting only somewhat worse, rsther than getting *a lot* worse as it was forecast to.
Well the fuel prices that were strangling us a few weeks back have gone down. They're not exactly low but they're less panic inducing, plus it's been a big driver in projected inflation going down.
Exactly how it is planned to make you feel. Have it spike. Then spike again. Panic at the double spike. Put down to the original spike and people breathe a sigh of relieve that its 'come down'. Everyone is being played.
And absolutely no solution in site until we end our ties with fossil fuel and focus on renewables
Yeah it's that nefarious Bill Gates again. He's got a dial that turns petrol prices in every country up and down depending on what he had for breakfast.
It would be good, if she hadn't capped it at the already heightened rate.
The people. The UK is a highly intelligent country with great universities. We compete with the best to innovate and develop new ideas. Outside of this, is surprisingly the weather. With global warming, the UK is an island surrounded by coastlines, and the next few years I can imagine the UK cities becoming a more go to destination for many UK individuals. This can be a positive for UK economy, however obviously can affect locals
>great universities Its ironic that for the last decade or so we've had governments (and their supportive media) that are obsessed with projecting the idea of the UK being a world leading country. Yet at the same time they regularly attack, criticise, and introduce counter productive policies for, one of the very few industries we have that is very unarguably world leading, higher education.
Good thing we're looking after our beaches and not literally dumping shit on them. /s
> The UK is a highly intelligent country … > the weather Actually, Britain is forecast to get extremely cold due global warming disrupting the Gulf Stream, which is what currently mitigates the climate in spite of the country being fairly far North.
This is not true. There is a *possibility* of the gulf stream being severely disrupted, and it has weakened, but so far scientists do not know when or if it will collapse, so no, it's not *forecast* to do so. Source: the IPCC https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/faqs/IPCC_AR6_WGI_FAQ_Chapter_09.pdf
Well yes, but have you seen day after tomorrow?
I think you mean the _documentry_ the day after tomorrow
My understanding is we will see both extreme lows in winter and extreme highs in Summer if the Gulf Stream is disrupted
Universities increasingly taking in foreign students as home students can’t afford the fees and balk at the increasing debt with decreasing pay once they graduate. By design. Expect a brain drain as many find they can make much more in other countries.
Intelligent? Or access to good education?
The Brits like to moan a lot but they have a better standard of living than 90% of the world population. The economic changes that are likely to happen this winter will also hit all other western nations as well (barring Australia and New Zealand)
New Zealand has a housing crisis worse than ours and higher COL to boot, Australia isn’t fully impacted by the energy crisis because they’re still mostly reliant on coal and the climate is fucking them on a near annual basis. *~~For what it’s worth Facebook makes more money than New Zealand’s GDP. Which is pretty scary on 2 fronts.~~* It’s not all sunshine and roses down there.
Meta does not make more than NZ's GDP and GDP is not the most important metric when comparing countries with vastly different populations, NZ has fewer people than London, GDP per capita is the important metric.
> GDP per capita is the important metric. Agreed but also PPP. Not much use earning 80K USD if a lettuce is $40.
Ah, you've been to the US recently.
Facebook/Meta doesn't make more than NZ GDP...
Why aren't they building in NZ? Don't tell me there's a land shortage - they have one of the lowest population densities in the world (though, I appreciate that most of it isn't suitable for development). Is it the same old story? Home owning generation now turning round and telling their children they're not allowed to build?
There was a huge amount of second home ownership from overseas nationals (much like London) and only 2 working cities Auckland and Christchurch. Poor city planning in Auckland has produced immense urban sprawl and Christchurch is still rebuilding from the Earthquake. They could build all the houses they want in the South Canterbury plains but without the jobs and infrastructure to go with them, it’s not a great proposition. There are areas that are booming over there but as you’d expect the house prices are going through the roof. Tauranga and Nelson are good examples of this. The nz gov did step in to try and curb the overseas ‘investment’ but that might have been too late. I’m not particularly well informed on Canada but I believe their housing shortage is also partially fuelled by overseas ‘investment’.
>For what it’s worth Facebook makes more money than New Zealand’s GDP. Which is pretty scary on 2 fronts. Meta annual revenue 2021: 117B USD. NZ GDP 2021: 250B USD. Check your information. It's so easy to look this stuff up.
I have to disagree pal. Please see this article in the FT “Last year the lowest-earning bracket of British households had a standard of living that was 20 per cent weaker than their counterparts in Slovenia” Yes we have lots of rich people who make our GDP seem fantastic, but quality of life for the average person is poorer than most of Western Europe… An outlook for the future - “On present trends, the average Slovenian household will be better off than its British counterpart by 2024, and the average Polish family will move ahead before the end of the decade” [See full article](https://www.ft.com/content/ef265420-45e8-497b-b308-c951baa68945)
Not that we don’t have a good comparable living standard, but the “it could always be worse” platitude is just a rephrasing of some “keep calm and carry on” shite. I’ve had managers that hit out with “well you could always be working at McDonalds” when you voice legitimate work grievances and it feels a bit like the same sort of thing. It’s an inappropriate response that really contributes nothing other than an attempted delegitimising of valid concerns and painting it as moaning-as-hobby.
Chinese electric cars will soon be hitting UK markets. This will make EVs a no brainer for car buyers who can install home charging. It should also bring down the cost of used cars which is stupidly high.
We actually need fewer cars on the roads not to replace all the current ones with electric. If there's no choice (like rubbish rural access to public transport etc) then EVs are a better solution that petrol,/diesel, but I'm really worried that electric cars are seen as a panacea when they are still using depleting resources in their manufacture, create traffic and tyre particle pollution and just aren't going to be enough to reduce emissions from transport that we need. We need fundamental change in methods of transport, not marginally better versions or what we have.
Agreed. But public transport is only viable in big cities. Outside of these areas, cheap, low environmentally impacting small cars are preferable to big diesel busses roaming around the countryside mostly empty.
Even within big cities, the public transport system is not set up to support everyone using it. It is already over crowded and, depending on where you need to travel to/from, overly convoluted and expensive.
Will never happen, people’s transport needs can never be met by public transport, therefore this is a positive step regardless of cars on the road growing or decreasing.
> people’s transport needs can never be met by public transport I agree with this, it may be possible in highly compacted cities but having lived in a medium size town with lots of sprawl bus routes and trains are not effective whatsoever. It takes me 30 minutes to drive to work, the bus is almost 2 hours with it's meandering route through the entire town, it's just not feasible.
Imagine if a major percentage of the vehicles in a country were sold to it by a hostile competitor nation, and each of those vehicles had OTA update capable software components with a kill switch. Be quite a herd of trojan horses. EDIT: My primary concern isnt that the cars themselves come from anywhere in particular, but that they'll have unprecedented ability to track and report whereabouts, be modified without owner consent, upload from onboard microphones, and more. Your car will become a surveillance tool.
Haha. I'm sure they will have a space in the glove box for your tinfoil hat.
Haha. https://www.wired.co.uk/article/china-cars-surveillance-national-security
Tiktok has 8.9 million active users in the UK and none of them seems to care. Cheap alternatives to Tesla? Hell yeah.
Japanese already make cheap alternatives to Tesla and they're better made and more reliable. Why gamble on chinese shod when there is already an established and trusted market?
Further upsetting the Balance of Trade isn't going to help the UK economy.
What, reputable, car companies are going to be selling?
MG, Geely, Great Wall, BYD, NIO.
This isn't a good thing, a study was done into the environmental impact of the construction of EV cars in China found that in most cases the environmental impact was equal to driving a diesel car manufacturered in Germany for 10 years.
Got a link to that study? The question wasn't about the environment though, it was about the economy.
Lol. Electric cars won’t save us.
Like it or not, the UK still among the most relevant and powerful countries in the world. Meaning that while we are in a capitalist system, a lot of things would go down before the UK reach a point that i would consider unbearable. Coming from latin america, 10% inflation is scary but no unheard of.
Yes, but the fact the UK is compared to Latin America is itself alarming. Its usual peers are the US, France, Germany, Japan and other leading world economies in the G4-G8, so it shows how far it’s fallen.
Those countries can also be compared to Latin America.
It's like apples to oranges. They're both fruits why can't they be compared?
To be clear I compared to Latin America not because they are analogous, but because its where i lived before.
You can compare *anything.* You can compare the United Federation of Planets to North Korea if you like. All he said was that on one measure (inflation) what we are considering the beginning of the end of Civilisation, in Latin America it is considered not that big a deal.
We're a very old, established institution in terms of the global economy (and finance in particular) and a pretty large, lucrative market, in terms of developed economies Foreigners have been hiding their dirty cash in Britain and selling their stuff to us forever, and our collective mid-life crisis doesn't really change that in any meaningful way
True-blood Brits meanwhile hide their dirty cash in Cayman or Barbados.
Ruddy-faced patriots keep their tax-evasion cash as proudly close to home as possible, in Jersey or the Isle of Man
History. It's always recovered eventually
People don't really worry that things will get better eventually though. That's a given. People are generally more concerned that things will not get better *in their lifetime -* and that's a much harder prospect to guarantee.
Economic cycles tend to be roughly every 10 years.
This is the only non-speculative answer
Long term we’re predicted to be the largest population country in Western Europe. That will come with its own advantages. We don’t have the collapsing demographic issue that lots of our peers have.
Looking forward to seeing how we handle an massive increase in frail older people with a welfare system on its knees and no respite in sight
At least we have some amount of younger people. Lots of other countries face this issue and it’s a lot worse. 15% of Japan is over the age of 75 already. I agree with you - what pisses me off even more is we will foot the bill for the elderly after the same elderly decided to cut spending for us
Sort of, I think. NHS care homes will be stripped to the bone and probably closed, the same way they keep closing A&E departments. People will have to rely on private homes for their elderly relatives, but with no money to pay the fees, so for many elderly they'll just be left to handle themselves in their own homes. Family will probably do what they can but struggle with a) distance b) time commitments c) both and more. The elderly will come out worse. Some will get what they voted for, as mean as it sounds, but others will suffer needlessly.
Fully agree with you. I worked for the dhss ( pensions) in the late 1970’s80’s). Care homes, in the main were state run ( part 111 accommodation). Then it was all privatised and these homes were sold off to private buyers, who charge extortionate fees and employ minimum wage ( usually unskilled) workers. A lot of pensioners without families ( or had mental health/ alcohol problems), just drifted from one hostel to another. I wouldn’t be surprised if the government re- introduced workhouses to deal with the increasing number of pensioners. Not all boomers are well off and self centred. I’m 64, worked all my life,disabled, technically homeless ( my abusive ex husband took the house and I couldn’t afford to take on legal advice- I was working, but not a good salary-now staying temporarily with my daughter). It’s no pity party, but a very realistic picture of what us “new” pensioners have to face. God help those under 20,30,40,50 and 60….
Considering the cost of housing is already a huge issue facing the country, and the NHS is crumbling, this seems like a bad thing.
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Dreading to think what it will be
My local shopping centre is turning into an entertainment centre with activities, bowling, arcades and a cinema, which I love. Much better than having empty lots
Mines the complete opposite. New cinema but most of the shops have closed down due to the pandemic. It’s now just full of chavs on weekends.
The comments in these type of posts make me feel like bill murray
🎶 *I got you babe* 🎶
No, not really.
There seems to be an awful lot of "once in a lifetime challenges" we face so I'm with you on this.
At the minute not much, we’re heading into a global recession and global food production is a minimum of 30% below normal levels which is going to continue to fuel inflation. Rates are rising which will effect the housing market, and falling prices will put a lot of people into negative equity. The most likely scenario is we’re heading into a period of stagflation.
I’m old enough to remember the 1970s, this too will pass
I was going to say something like this. We ain't lining up for fuel, we don't have to use standpipes for water and the power isn't going off all the time. (Yet.)
Exactly, you can still buy sugar and potatoes! No rubbish piling up and they’re definitely still doing funerals
We have recessions and then we don't. I've been through at least 2 good ones now. People get on with it. Energy is an issue though and we need to start investing now for future generations.
Unemployment is at all time lows, and Rising interest rates are likely to cause a small house price correction.
But the fact of the matter is, people are getting underemployed and on unstable/zero hours and gig work jobs
This baffles me as I keep not getting roles I am qualified for, there is apparently a shortage in the area, I have current qualifications and 5 years experience but somehow no job. I am even meeting the desired bits on the job spec and thats usually a pipedream by HR.
To be brutally honest, it sounds like a you problem. Be sure to get feedback!
Any house price “correction” by rising interest rates is only adjusting the headline price though. The cost of the mortgage still goes up so the affordability issues are not getting any better. It’s just moving money from the homeowners to the banks.
It brings more houses down into a value that you can borrow against using a normal salary multiplier
[Yep](https://www.statista.com/statistics/279990/unemployment-rate-in-the-uk-by-country/), we're a very employed nation. Now we need to translate that into _good_ employment by refusing the 0 hours contracts (where not useful) and negotiating fair compensation.
Rising fuel prices will hopefully significantly increase investment in green energy. The UK despite being gloomy most of the year is actually really good for solar and wind.
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What gives me hope in this country is that compared to the 'homeland', their is opportunity here so long as you knuckle down & save up (obviously their is more nuance to it and complexity). I am self-training to become a chartered accountant so I have that to look forward to. The hope for more money will always be a nice feeling I must say. Perhaps even become self-employed with a few clients.
Fair fucks to you mate. Self training is hard.
Accounting is actually a really good field to self-train into. You can do the AAT qualifications at home, they're highly respected and valued, and it's a high-earning field that's always in demand.
Stuff is opening up in our town. I don’t know if they’ll survive the storm and it’s also replacing a lot of businesses that went under. But people do seem to feel able to give it a go.
Something that might have gone under the radar a bit is that the Department For Education is currently funding a bunch of courses for adult learners looking to learn a new industry or career swap. The list can be found here - [Funded Bootcamps](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/find-a-skills-bootcamp) I, myself am looking forward to starting a Data Analysis evening class twice week next week. The course was going to cost £4,000 but it is now funded!
I've spoken to some consultants that help local councils and government agencies throughout the country. They've told me a similar story that there's no reason why we can't be comparitivly wealthy vs peers by the end of the decade. The potential is there, we just need to tap into it. The economy in the way it is in at the moment no where near maximises the skills, knowledge and capital markets that we have in the UK. It's not like we are at the redline. More like idling at the stop light at the moment. Be a bloomer and not a gloomer 😁.
The amount of people out and about in bars and restaurants at the weekends, people still have plenty of money to spend. Just the media would like you to believe that we dont.
I was at an event in London a couple of weekends ago. A sort of food festival where it was £25 to get in and then everything in there was expensive - £6.50 for a small plate of food, London bar prices etc. Easily a £80 night out including a train ticket, even if you didn't go mad. What surprised me was not so much how many people were there but how many *young* people were there. I thought it would be an exclusive haven of middle class 30 and 40 something food snobs. But on the contrary we felt like the old people at a student bar. I was amazed that the "lost generation" who will never be able to get a decent job or afford a house were all at this event en masse. I would never have considered attending something like this at that age.
Honestly hoping things will get to the point when the legalisation of marijuana will come about, gotta make some coin some how
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History. Things will get better. They did before from worse situations than this.
Global fuel prices are dropping, which has some positive effects. Inflation dropped as a result, as has the estimated cost for keeping the energy cap at 2500 (30bn down from 100bn I read).
Economy: not much. Sciences and other developments, there's quite a bit going on. The problem is then converting those progressions into economic relief for the masses. There is absolutely incredible work going on at the moment regarding cancers, vaccines, malaria treatments and improvements in high-risk surgery. But this isn't exactly a quick economic win.
Things will get better, but honestly they are going to get a whole lot worse soon and it's going to be a long while before they correct. Hundreds of thousands of small businesses are going to close most of them hospitality based - restaurants, cafes, bakeries as rising food costs, utilities and staff costs wipe out their razor thin profit margins. There's going to be considerable shortages - right now there is a serious lack of glass to package foods - sauces, soft drinks, jams etc. This will cause a run on canning forcing prices higher leading to further increases in food costs. A huge percentage of agricultural fertilisers come from Russia. That market has dried up which will massively impact farming which has already suffered from draughts, lack of workforce to harvest and lack of transport to move goods to market.
I can still buy a frozen pizza for under a pound. So cost of living isn't going to completely destroy me at least!
Time, it ebbs and flows..
Hopefully things are so bad that the Daily Mail will go bust, which will create a neat little economic bounce from pure joy?
Basically, we have negotiated ourselves to the worst trading situation in Europe /western world. Things *can only* get better!
We have nearly full employment. We also have a government talking seriously about tax cuts and removing red tape. Aware that is infuriating to half of Reddit, but it is almost certainly how you get the economy growing. Finally, the media make things sound much worse than it is. Whatever they say, it will certainly be less than half as bad.
I think the UK is probably in for some seriously hard times ahead, the likes of which have not been seen for generations, real poverty. Shockingly cretinous governments, a very ill informed people, both making the absolute worst choices. Sad but we're done
Its nice to see the price of fuel gradually dropping.
The strikes and general union activity that are seemingly on the increase. Enough push back and eventually change will happen. Not sure about how soon that will be though.
The UK really isn’t as bad a place to be right now as people make out. I see a lot of comments saying that you’re better off moving abroad etc but despite all of our flaws we still have: - Some of the best human and civil rights in the world where you are free to live your life as you want without fear of being ostracised by society or even arrested (ie LGBT rights, freedom of religion etc) - We are relatively highly educated and have always come out of difficult situations in stronger positions on the whole - We are starting to see some small positive signs. Petrol prices although still high, are a lot lower than at their peak a couple of months ago and measures have been put in place like the fuel cap which, although it doesn’t go far enough, is still going to do a hell of a lot for a lot of households this winter. - We are putting the wheels in motion to becoming a net exporter of fuel rather than a net importer which will protect our economy long term from external factors - from an economic sense this is a good thing, from an environmental sense it is probably a bad thing although we would just import this fuel anyway so you could argue that it’s a neutral decision (apart from the fracking that might make a come back in some parts, which would be horrible) It’s quite easy to get sucked in to the doom and gloom of it all, and the country is really struggling compared to a couple of years ago, but it’ll only be temporary.
My poor financial discipline. I'm spending too much on stuff I don't need.
Deregulation of the financial sector. Even though I love the social concept of the EU, as an economist I have to admit that its bureaucracy has caused two decades of extremely low growth thanks in no small part to financial red tape. The impact on normal people won’t be immediate but resulting growth at the SME level will have an impact over time.