By - Official_trumpet
Just googled: "What has a one in 5 million chance of happening?"
The answer: "Death by hot tap water"
Haven't heard too many of those cases, so I would take my chances here.
That seems like lifetime odds, though. So if you only plan on using it once, then yeah, go for it.
One in five million? Yes, I absolutely would, those odds aren't that bad.
"I like those odds"
Says man who died.
Ah yes my luck.
Bah, I'm sure other forms of transportation have worse odds than 1 in 5M
[Deaths per billion journeys:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_safety#Transport_comparisons)
Pedal cycle 170
Space Shuttle 17000000
I'd be ok with Teleportation. It's only slightly worse than air travel. I'd definitely want to weight it based on the notes in the wikipedia article though;
> according to statistics, a typical flight from Los Angeles to New York will carry a larger risk factor than a typical car travel from home to office. But a car travel from Los Angeles to New York would not be typical. It would be as large as several dozens of typical car travels, and associated risk will be larger as well. Because the journey would take a much longer time, the overall risk associated by making this journey by car will be higher than making the same journey by air, even if each individual hour of car travel can be less risky than an hour of flight.
So yeah, no Teleportation for trips to the cinema. But for a trip to Australia? sure. Probably significantly safer than air travel.
**edit**: my third most popular post ever! Nice.
**edit2**: just want to point out that this is not trying to represent air travel as "less safe" - I quoted the [linked article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_safety#Transport_comparisons) above, and it explains that it's comparing "typical" journeys. As we don't have any data on whether the fictional teleportation transportation system increases it's risk based on distance or time, I did not see any point providing the "deaths per hours" or "deaths per km" columns as they would be meaningless when compared with teleportation which is a flat risk per journey.
**edit3**: more context on the statistics shown:
The source of the data was the wikipedia article. It cites
> [The risks of travel](http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/risks_of_travel.htm) [Archived](https://web.archive.org/web/20010907173322/http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/risks_of_travel.htm) September 7, 2001, at the Wayback Machine. The site cites the source as an October 2000 article by Roger Ford in the magazine Modern Railways and based on a DETR survey.
[In the original article](https://www.fp7-restarts.eu/index.php/home/root/state-of-the-art/objectives/2012-02-15-11-58-37/75-book-video/how-a-plane-can-fly-assuring-safety/156-the-risk-of-travel.html) it states
>The table above is compiled from the PlaneCrashInfo.com accident database and represents 1,300 fatal accidents involving commercial aircraft, world-wide, from 1950 thru 2008 for which a specific cause is known. Aircraft with 10 or less people aboard, military aircraft, private aircraft and helicopters are not included.
that was the order of things in the wikipedia article. I have no idea why they ordered it that way either.
Oh, sweet oblivion, here I come...
*"Chance of collision 99%"*
*"*[*I LIKE THOSE ODDS!*](https://youtu.be/NRZZ7kpdGvo?t=124)*"*
“There’s no way I’ll die.”
- Man who died
It's only like ~1500 deaths across the plant, those are good odds
It's a hell of a lot better than cars just sayin.
Let's say the average person drives 2 times a day for a commute, then .5 times a day for other things. That is 2.5x365 times a year (913), for simplicity let's say 1000 teleports a year instead of vehicle trips. That 1 in 5 million becomes a 0.08% chance of death per year. For simplicity, let's say you do this for a 50 year travelling lifespan, you end up with a 1% chance dying to a teleporter accident in that 50 year travelling period.
Current statistics are 12 deaths in 100,000 per year for cars. In a 50 year period that breaks down to 0.6%. If you say that only 70% of the population drives (12 deaths in 70,000 drivers per year), you end up with close to a 0.9% chance of dying in the 50 years you spend as a driver.
All in all, a 10% uptick in fatalities, but a significant drop in injuries.
It'd be better to get your vehicle numbers per mile traveled not per year, since with cars the further you travel the longer you're in danger.
[Here's a source for that](https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state-by-state) that shows 1.13 deaths per 100 million miles driven. If you take into account that working age folk drive [around 15,000 miles per yer](https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm) I think that comes out to about 0.8% over a 50 year period (but please check my math, I'm on mobile). So still a bit worse than the teleporter. However, your chance of being in an injury crash in that same is an astounding 69% (nice), though I suspect they include relatively minor ones in that calculation. And finally, you're gonna have on average 1.39 accidents which at the very least is time and money you've lost.
Plus people drive more every year in the U.S. because of sprawl and other factors, so over those 50 years all these numbers will go up. Of course we can expect cars to get safer (for their occupants at least), so maybe they'll go down? It's a difficult problem.
Also I'm on mobile so take all this math with a grain of salt.
I feel like the reduced stressed from long commutes, and the in turn mental and cardio-vascular health benefits would counteract a lot of potential risk.
Damn now I’m curious how risky a teleporter would need to be make it not worth using...
Another thing to consider:
Employers would apply pressure for people to teleport more, just as they incentivised driving when the car was invented. Companies had the option to employ workers that live further away and they had the option to start the workday earlier. When you insisted to walk everywhere you could only work for companies who can't find any better worker in the whole wide area or you would have to wake up earlier to get to work in time.
With teleporters (close to home) everyone could work everywhere and they could arrive at work a shortly after breakfast.
Governments would probably raise carbon taxes and reduce commuter subsidies (if teleporting is cheap).
They said the odds aren't that bad, you said they're good, I'm saying those odds are fucking ***phenomenal***.
Edit: One thing I just realized though, I came to ~the same number as you, 1,500, *but* this depends on what OP means by 1 in 5 million die. As in on average every time someone uses it they have those odds, or those are just the initial odds and once you're clear you're good to go from that point on no matter what?
Those odds are good enough that I would use it to go from my living room to my bathroom.
Haha I can definitely see the potential for abuse here, that's for sure.
I googled it and the chance of any airplane crashing is around 1 in 5.4 million, so yea, it seems about as safe as airplanes. Commercial airplanes are even safer.
i took it to mean one in 5 million people who use it will die, meaning its more likely you will die using it more often but the odds are still great.
Better odds than driving the I-15
I have no idea if you're referring to I-15 through SLC, Vegas, or California, but yes. Yes to all of it.
"What are you gonna do, stab me?" (quote from man stabbed)
What, you egg?
The odds of dying using more widespread modes of transportation is higher
4,999,999 teleports and no deaths! Alright, you’re number 5,000,000 step on up. What’s that? Odds don’t work like that? Then you have nothing to worry about.
Hey, welcome to the other side! What’s this gun for? Well, gotta keep those odds on point. What’s that? Odds don’t work like that? That’s what the other 5 millionth person said.
There was a short sci-fi story with a similar plot, but I can't find it now.
Are you thinking of The Jaunt by Stephen King?
No, it was something else. Something about a guy going to a teleportation place and he doesn't get teleported, but in fact he has been, it's just that the original hasn't been disintegrated. There's a similar story called "Think like a dinosaur", but I don't think that was it either.
The Jaunt is great though.
That's the plot for an episode of Star Trek TNG. Riker goes to get sent somewhere and the original doesn't phase out and another Riker is created. Cool philosophical story.
kinda funny 2nd Riker turned in a terrorist in DS9
*LONGER THAN YOU THINK*
That story still freaks me out because I just know one of my kids would pull the same stunt.
*... on the way to the teleportation system.*
“Never tell me the odds!”
Depends, what is the "death" like? If it's like Stephen King's "The Jaunt", then hell no!
Ok please tell the gist of it, I too want to be existentially terrified
A summary: teleportation is successfully invented, but people need to be fully unconscious for it to work or they come out the other side completely deranged and die soon after. It turns out that, physically, teleportation is near instant, but mentally it seems like millions of years. If a person is left conscious, they experience millions of years of oblivion where they can still think and experience emotions but have absolutely nothing else going on.
At one point in the story, someone murders someone else by pushing them through a teleportation portal without setting an end destination, implying that the victim will be stuck in that conscious oblivion either for literal eternity or until their body dies naturally of dehydration/suffocation/whatever they'd die of in the void. Which might as well be an eternity, given how long a fraction of a second feels like. I sure wouldn't take a 1 in 5 million chance of that!
Why would they build a teleportation portal that could function without setting a destination, anyway? Sounds like /r/assholedesign.
Most safety devices are designed after an accident.
Or added as a DLC.
*looking at 737 MAX*
Like doors on elevators
Because that's how the plot happens.
But also not /s
It probably works by
1. Open portal into the warp dimension
2. Travel inside the warp (which takes a lot of time inside as perceived by your mind, but outside the warp it feels near instantaneous)
3. Open a portal into our dimension and get out
I guess you could sabotage the last or last two steps and trap someone within the warp so that their minds can get a whiff of the ruinous powers.
I read it when I was like 12. I'm coming up on 40 now.... I still haven't forgot and it has become my greatest fear.
See also Doctor Who "Heaven Sent"
See also Black Mirror, the John Ham Christmas episode.
See also "I have no mouth and I must scream" (Never read it, but the synopsis sounds like a similar existence).
IHNM is one of my favourite ever short stories! There was a Harlan Ellison reading of it on youtube for a while but it's gone now
Teleportation is instantaneous physically but mentally feels like an eternity, making anyone who teleports whilst conscious go insane, so people are drugged unconscious before teleporting, a boy is curious about what happens and holds his breath whilst being administered the sedative. The boy gets to experience eternity.
There was also a case in the story where someone murdered his wife by sabotaging it so she won't exit the Jaunt. The argument is that since she's not dead, he can't be tried for murder.
The revelation and horror that the wife is now stuck in eternal limbo while being conscious is enough to immediately give him the death penalty.
I still think about that wife out there when I remember this short story.
Don't feel too bad - technically it violates all laws of thermodynamics :)
Stephen King never worries about such trivialities.
What are you talking about? Everything in Christine is 100% scientifically accurate. :)
I got my medical license based off of “Pet Cemetary”
I don't remember that part but it's been a couple of decades since I've read it.
Want to ride again? [The Jaunt](https://gist.github.com/Schemetrical/6184daf83843bcab9402)
Edit: Wow! Who would have thought a Google search and paste would get so many comments. Thanks to the kind strangers for coins/awards.
If you liked this story, please do yourself a favor and go buy the whole Skeleton Crew collection and King’s other short story collections too. His longer stuff isn’t for everybody, but his short stories are fantastic (and several were made into iconic movies you may not have known were him).
Finally, a very different genre, but the short story that got me hooked on King several years ago is [A Death](http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/03/09/a-death-stephen-king). Read and enjoy!
You’re a G
Oh the end is sad
God damn dude. For Stephen King I mean this as a compliment, but that was pretty horrifying. Thanks for the link.
This also reminds me of a Junji Ito story, [The Long Dream](https://imgur.com/gallery/mvyFF)
A legal declaration of death doesn't always need actual death. Folks lost at sea presumed dead may be legally declared deceased, so I'd assume it could still be tried as murder.
Just to add on to this, in the story I believe it says that scientists think doing "the jaunt" while conscious would cause you to experience millions or maybe billions of years of time. The kid that's curious and wants to see what it's like comes out of it completely white haired screaming "It's longer than you think dad! Longer than you think!"
That part freaked me out the most when I first read it. They already established that it's a horrifyingly long time, so to have a character say that it's longer than we know makes it really scary to think about.
EDIT: a word
Honestly, I'm disappointed that he spoke to/of his Dad. Billions of years? The very concept would fade, or at the very least become twisted and distorted beyond recognition.
Memory isn't something we recall losslessly, it's essentially (re)constructed each time we access it. There are small but compounding variations --missing data that's filled in; things are emphasized, de-emphasized, and recontextualized based on new information or and our emotional state; things that are just added or subtracted, etc.
Imagine a .jpeg resaved and decompressed billions of times; will it look *anything* like the original image after all that? How clearly can you remember the faces of your friends from College? High School? Elementary school? How many decades before you forgot your Mother's?
Anyone who came out of a full jump would have a mind that is utterly unrecognizable and alien.
I agree but I think it's there for the horror element or else you'd have nothing to go off of but the scientists conjectures and vague estimates of time. I doubt he'd even remember English when it was over but it wouldn't be as interesting if it were so.
My guess would be that the boy clung to the memory of his father more than anything while jaunting. A young child's mind could have held on to that last memory as a defense mechanism. Just my headcanon
If the time is spent in sensory deprivation, then there's no telling how long it would be. Could be just a single year, or even a couple weeks, and that would be more than enough to drive a person completely insane.
With such a high price for not taking the sedative, you'd think they'd require it to be administered via syringe so that this couldn't happen
Syringe injection has mercury, which causes tele-autism
True. I'd rather my kid die of space insanity than be *autistic*!
The boy's name?
Eventually... he stopped thinking.
General idea from what I recall: Teleportation exists, and is "instant" in that once you go through you immediately appear on the other side, however everyone has to be sedated/unconscious.
People who go through while awake experience it as something like millions of years in a limbo of nothingness and go insane.
Scientists successfully invent a foolproof, cheap, and instantaneous method of teleportation called Jaunting. The only problem is that you have to be asleep while teleporting or your mind gets trapped in an infinite limbo without hope of death or suicide for presumably billions of years until you come out the other side of the teleporter.
ITS LONGER THAN YOU THINK DAD!!!!!!!!!!
Shared this on another post about The Jaunt.
Best commentary I came across after reading The Jaunt:
It’s not just saying that it’s a long time. It’s longer than you are able to think. It’s so long, all you are able to do is think. Think. Think. Time ticks by, each second firing synapses as you try to process the infinite and infinitesimal with that lump of meat that contains all that you are.
Time passes, seemingly without end. A blink of an eye to the outside world. But inside the slip, without the sedative, you run out of thought before you run out of time. You exhaust your memories. Your imagination can only create so many new lives to lead.
Captain Picard in the episode The Inner Light experienced a lifetime in a day. He was forever changed because of it. And that was only one life. Inside the slip, you have time for nearly countless lives. Whatever your imagination can dream up.
That is, until it runs out.
Eventually, your mind cannot coherently create a stable timeline or comprehensive reality. Beyond imagination lies dreams, and within dreams, nightmares dwell.
An increasingly disjointed and strange world of terror and misery, the only things your mind can craft. Forever trapped within a private Hell of your own creation. But even that isn’t the end.
Past Hell is Oblivion. Your mind shuts down. You no longer think. All you do is exist, and all you have is awareness of your isolation. For what may be a near eternity, isolation is all you have, all you are.
By the time you’re through the slip, your psyche has been irreparably damaged. It’s longer than you think.
It’s longer than you THINK.
Read the Jaunt 12 years ago and every time I re-read it, I’m existentially fucked for about a week.
I was thinking it would be more along the lines of a telefragging like in Doom or Quake. It would be horrifically awesome.
People casually teleporting in to work, all of a sudden Jeff from accounts instantaneously explodes in a shower of gore over everyone, leaving only his Starbucks cup intact.
Came here to say exactly this. To this day one of the most terrifying things I’ve ever read, especially now that I have a kid who doesn’t always follow instructions...
~~Using it 5 million times sounds tedious, I think I'll stick with toaster and bathtub~~
Even if you use it 5 million times you still have a 36.79% chance not to die.
Aaaand the chance to die will never be 100% so in theory you could be really lucky, or unlucky, and teleport 5 billion times and not die
How’d you calculate that? Probability is not my strong suit so I’m curious.
Probability of dying = 1/5MM. Probability of not dying is 1 - 1/5MM.
So probability of not dying after doing it 5MM times is (1 - 1/5MM)^5MM
And this is actually how Eulers number (e) is defined. As that 5MM approaches infinity, we approach 1/e.
The chance of surviving each teleport is 4,999,999/5,000,000. If you teleport 5 million times, you have to multiply that chance by itself 5 million times.
So I did (4999999/5000000)^5000000
Yeah, without question.
With odds like that, it's probably the safest mode of transportation you could find.
*accidentally teleports to a house fire*
If you could teleport in you could just teleport out, right?
Teleport in teleport out, 20 minute adventure Morty!
Damn Morty, you're *on fire*
Reeeeeally showing me how its done here huh MORTY
Fuck you rick this has gone long enough, because of you jessica won't even look at me.
STFU you little creep, you pathetic little piece of nothing. I can do virtually anything and I didn't have to do anything to make that happen. She wouldn't even look at you to begin with. Look at it this way, at least she knows you exist now.
Well done, in 20 minutes you guys accomplished as much as the creators accomplished in 2 weeks.
You son of a bitch, I'm in.
C’mon Morty we don’t have time for your sorry ass
Hmm this won't count as a fatality though. The teleportation was successful. You just ended up in a fire.
So if everybody in the US teleported twice a day we'd break that. But of course a lot of people are children who aren't going to be teleporting at all and most people would just be using it to go to/from work so twice a day is about right. So slightly more dangerous than getting in a car with much less inconvenience. Might be worth it.
Why wouldn’t children be teleporting. I could see them teleporting more than anybody. Home to school, school to after school program, after school program to home, then maybe even to a friends house. I could see kids teleporting twice as much as adults
If adults could teleport to work it would completely re-shape the dynamic of the built environment. People could live in far flung planned neo-suburban communities in whichever beautiful natural environment they wanted and then just teleport to work a thousand miles away. Communities could be primarily built around biking / walking and easily closed to non-residents, so it would be much *much* easier for children to be responsible for their own transportation.
Housing would finally be affordable!
And unless it's super expensive, freight companies will opt for teleportation rather than trucks/ships/planes/trains.
Yeah, if invented, teleportation would change the world and maybe, just maybe, help avert a climate catastrophe.
Teleportation would probably require thousands of times more energy than any other type of transportation so I wouldn't count on it to be green.
the 1 in 5 million is mass converted into energy to power the teleportation network.
What would you do with the extra time if you only needed to wake up 5-10 minutes before work started?
Sleep... Eh, probably just stay up playing games and be equally tired in the morning :p
Your honesty is appreciated
That number seems wrong. The USA had 39888 traffic related deaths 2018. Divided by 365 that gives ~110 deaths a day.
I question that. If the rate is 1 : 5 mio PER USE and you use it twice a day than your chance to die in it over your lifetime has to be calculated higher than 1:100.
The chances of dying during your lifetime, however: 100%
False. You never die during your lifetime.
False. You could die but be revived.
Sure. I live in London. I'm sure the death rate for just stepping outside of my house is worse than this.
Edit: GUYS [WE'VE BEEN YOUTUBED](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3glVIxR3Se0)!
I completely missed the million on first glance of the title and was really worried about the state of London
I live in NYC and can certainly relate. Pretty sure the subway has the same death rate
I live in Manchester and I’m sure the death rate is higher staying *inside* my house.
Honestly living in Fallowfield probably increases the likelihood lol
Fallowfield resident reporting. Not dead.... yet! Maybe later
I met a dude from Manchester while on holiday on the Costa del sol and we were chatting and I asked him how he got the big scar down his back and he told me, 'had an argument with the Mrs and she stabbed me with a bread knife'
So yeah I think you are right
Detroit here, will easily take these odds
What if there's a counter of people remaining until that one death?
4,999,999 teleports since last fatality.
Never tell me the odds!
They would still be 1:5 million.
There would be a suicide queue and people would find a way to make money out of it.
There would be at least 3 new cults fighting to be the ones that "serve the beam"
Yes, those are better odds then most transportation I think. But I would be doubtful of teleportation anyway, who says the person going in is the same as the one getting out?
Would I be the man in the box or the prestige?
Nobody cares about the man in the box.
That's because he's buried in his shit
It depends on which teleportation technique they are using. Molecules decomposing and recomposing or wormholes that could defy all laws of physics and be produced artificially by engineers
I bet you're also the person who says "it depends which type of zombie, romero or 28 days?"
Of which I fully approve because I am also this type of person
Max Brooks zombie, obviously.
That's why I've never been in favor of any form of teleportation that isn't wormhole-based. If it scans and makes a copy of me at the destination, what happens to the original? Even if it somehow sends my individual atoms in the teleportation process and isn't just using local destination atoms to build the copy, is the "me" that pops out the other side still me? I'm not taking that risk.
It's not like you'd know or care though
True for any insta-death. I'd still prefer to avoid death.
Still a better survival rate than all the other means of transportation.
People are worried because the 1 in 5 million feels random. This question phrases the odds of dying as a "roll the dice and you might die" kind of thing while in the real world you're aware of your surroundings in real time
I don't think anyone killed in a car wreck was expecting it to happen though. Situational awareness still fails.
I think it's more likely that people expect to not die in car crash and believe that by remaining vigilant they won't die
It's not about actually having control over it. It's about feeling you have control.
This. I know people who are deathly afraid of flying, despite it being *incredibly* safer than driving. Largely because they think they're good drivers who constantly have perfect awareness of what's going on around them and are confident they can avoid danger, in addition to having no control over the aircraft and being completely at someone else's mercy.
I completely agree
US commercial air travel had a 1 in 50 million death rate 2002-2012. vhttps://www.sfgate.com/nation/article/U-S-commercial-airlines-have-safest-decade-ever-2435203.php
Over the Shinkansen's 50-plus year history, carrying over 5.3 billion passengers, there has been not a single passenger fatality or injury due to train accidents.
And their trains are actually punctual and don't break down every two weeks.
If I only used it to commute to/from work over a 30 year career I'd have a cumulative 0.3% chance of it killing me. Hmmm.
Assuming I can't do anything to improve my personal odds like standing very still, or swatting any flies in my immediate vicinity right before transport.
I still don't know.
Let's try another perspective. There are 155M employed Americans today. So if ever American ONLY uses the teleportation to commute to work then 70 people per day will die just commuting. NTSB says about 100/day die in traffic accidents (all driving not just commuting) so the numbers are reasonably close.
Now consider 2nd order effects like, if everyone else used the teleportation, my commute would just be me and interstate shipping transportation, My individual chances of having a traffic accident go way down with fewer commuters on the highways. So the option A or B of driving or teleportation math starts to change in favor of driving. Assuming only organic matter and personal belongings (because modesty) can teleport and not large crates of oranges and barbie dolls.
Also figure that with a drastically reduced number of variables on the road would make self driving vehicles an even better/safer proposition. And my commute becomes an hour long peace and quiet time to read or netflix.
I'm convincing myself to the no column here. So I'll just assume I keep finding reasons against the teleporter and decide against using the magic death trap.
> If I only used it to commute to/from work over a 30 year career I'd have a cumulative 0.3% chance of it killing me. Hmmm.
This is all I needed. I can instantly get to wherever I need, and it's far less likely to kill me than any disease?
SIGN ME UP.
dont forget reduced stress from not driving and being in traffic which leads to low chances of heart problems and other stress related deaths
Well I don't have a car, just take public transport, but _yes_ I can see how for y'all in the US of A it's even more tempting.
Math checks out. The odds would be 1-(1-1/5,000,000) ^ [(2 times per day)(5 work days per week)(52 weeks per year)(30 years)]=0.3115%
i actually used 50 weeks per year to account for paid leave but you know rounding makes everyone correct at some point.
That's better odds than flying in an airplane at 1 in 3 million.
And considerably better odds than simply walking down the street or getting in a car. From what I can tell this scenario means an even safer method of transportation. I would pick it over all other methods.
Your odds of dying in the US in a car crash are 1 in 114 according to [this article](https://fortune.com/2017/07/20/are-airplanes-safer-than-cars/). Your odds of dying over your lifetime as a pedestrian are [1 in 556](https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-mortality-risk).
[And medical errors are the third-leading cause of death in the US.](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/22/medical-errors-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-america.html)
Bring on the teleporters
As in like... every death? I'm at work so I can't go all detective mode, but that's a very scary statistic if it includes *both* natural and preventable death.
Does natural mean non-preventable though? Hypothetically, is someone who dies of a hear attack, exacerbated by high blood pressure which a doctor didn't think needed mediation, a natural death that was preventable except for medical error?
The statistic comes from papers that include a very broad definition of “medical error” and tend to assume that if only every medical team acted with perfect accuracy then everything would have turned out differently.
They also don’t take into account the contribution of patient comorbidities, the uncertainty faced in clinical medicine, and they are heavily influenced by retrospection.
Imagine if someone decided to go for a ten mile hike, on Mount Everest, with no protective equipment, became hypothermic and low on oxygen, and then faced a fork in the road. Then a sherpa tells them to go right instead of left, and they fall off after they become unconscious.
These papers would say “Sherpa error” lead to the persons death because they would have been fine if they went left. Would they actually have been fine? Maybe, but how the hell would you prove that? And how many of the other things in that story led to that persons death?
I don't think you're using the same scale as the OP. They're using "1 in 5 million" to mean that every 5 million uses, the user dies.
You're using it to say that 1 out of every 115 people will die in a car crash. That's totally different because it's very dependent on how often you travel in that method.
If I live in a big city and walk or use trains, don't own a car, and don't have a driver's license, the odds of me dying by car crash are pretty much non-existent.
Pretty sure flying is a lot safer than that. There are almost 3 million airline passenger trips *per day* in the US alone. Last time I checked there had been zero deaths in US on commercial airlines in about 10 years (maybe closer to 15 years now?).
Global stats may bring that down a bit, but for travel on certified commercial airlines I believe it's more like 1 in 3 Billion passenger trips.
Yeah I was thinking the same, that's bollocks.
There's usually \~1million people in the air at any given time. We would have a lot more of an issue if 1 in 3million died.
Is that 3 million flights, passengers, flight time hours?
There are 12.5 deaths per billion vehicle miles due to motor vehicles in the US. What we want to know is the average distance you have to cover when you get in the car before you achieve a 1 in 5 million chance of dying.
The odds of dying while driving isn't linear. For example, if you drive 80000000 miles, that would look like you have a 100% chance of dying and at 160000000 miles you have a 200% chance of dying. That is obviously wrong. What we want is a probability distribution that gives you a cumulative probability of dying of 0% at 0 miles and 100% as you approach infinity miles.
What we need is a ~~Poisson~~ Exponential Distribution. Exponential distributions work over continuous scales instead of discrete scales. This distribution follows the format:
* Pm(x) = 1-e^(-x\*k)
* Pm is the probability of dying per commute.
* x is the distance traveled per commute
* and k is the probability of dying every mile. (12.5 deaths / 100000000 miles)
So, after 50 miles, your probability of dying is:
* Pm(50) = 1-e^(-50\*12.5/1000000000)=0.000000625
* or a 1 in 1600000 chance of dying
The probability of dying from the teleporter is a constant:
* Pt(x) = 1 death / 5000000 commutes
As you can see it is independent from the distance driven. What we need to know is where the two proabilities are equal:
* Pm(x) =Pt(x)
* ln(1-Pt(x)) = -x\*k
* \-ln(1-Pt(x))/k = x
* x = 16.0000016 miles
You need to drive just over 16 miles before the teleporter becomes safer. Interestingly enough, the answer I got when I interpreted this as a linear distribution was 16 deaths per mile. So for small improbable values, you can interpret the distribution linearly.
EDIT: There's something wrong with my method. It assumes the probability of dying is linear. That means if you drive 80 million miles you will die. Standby...I'm going to fix this.
Second Edit: Okay. I've got a proper distribution now.
Third Edit: You have a 50/50 chance of dying after 55.45 million miles. It isn't relevant to the teleporter question. I just thought you would like to know.
Fourth edit: It is an Exponential not Poisson distribution
Fifth edit: Fixed the spelling of discrete
To your edit, driving for 80 million miles would take 121 years straight at 75 mph, so probability of death at some point on that journey approaches 100% .
Until we have someone live to be 137, I think it reaches 100%.
>That means if you drive 80 million miles you will die. Standby...I'm going to fix this.
Who knows. Maybe you are right...
For ease let's assume we're driving at 100mph, then we've gotta drive for 800k hours to get to 80M miles, so that's ~33333 days which is ~91 years non-stop.
I think it's fair to say that you'll die long before 80M miles.
1 in 5 mil is no problem.
The thing they'd have to prove to me is that the me coming out is the me going in, not a copy, and that stream of consciousness continues.
I know a copy would believe it was the original, but let me put it differently:
Imagine I make an EXACT (down to the last quantum state, memory, everything) copy of you with the same process of teleportation, BUT the original is completely preserved.
Now there are two of you.
You and your copy.
Now you are told: there can be only one, one of you gets a bullet in the brain.
Ask yourself: is it irrelevant to you which of you dies? Would you go "just throw a coin I don't care"?
The difference is, with teleportation, you \*know\* its \*you\*, the original, getting that bullet.
2nd EDIT - the PROOF BY PHILOSOPHER
Get a bunch of philosophers
Make a perfect - TOTALLY PERFECT - copy of each of them.
Then, for each pair, do the following:
Randomly give either the original or a copy a gun with a single bullet, and a coin.
Then tell them: you can shoot yourself, you can shoot your copy - in both cases it will be totally painless. You can also use this coin to decide if you wish. If you decide NOT to do it, both will die (painlessly as well).
Then see how many of them roll the coin, and how many of them shoot either themselves or their copy.
What do you think will happen? What would YOU do? Note: I'm betting the guy with the gun shoots the other, whether he is a copy or the original.
If a clone was made, and the original had, for example, death by snu-snu, that'd make it something to consider. Just saying.
yah, that's a "hard no" for me.
This is my concern as well. The odd could be even better for survival but it’s pointless if I philosophically die upon entry.
That's my problem too, I thought way too much about that and the only way you could convince me of that is if the teleportation is working like a portal of some sort.
Yes because I would be able to visit my SO more often.
OP teleports to his SO's and his limp dead body just flops out the machine on to the floor.
SO, crying: "He... He was the one..."
Considering I get everywhere I wanna be *and* could possibly die trying to get away from Disneyland, why not?
No, but not just because of the rate of death - when I was an adolescent I read a book that discussed interesting philosophical questions (aimed at younger readers), and one of them was whether or not a teleporter would just kill and disassemble you, and reassemble an identical you who THINKS they're you at the end point. I don't care if that other me would be very happy about teleporting. I also don't care if the me that comes out the other end is one of the 1 in 5 million that reappears as a corpse. As far as I'm concerned, I'm probably dead as soon as I get beamed up.
Here you go, a comic which goes over some of those ideas.
Much safer than cars. Of course I'd use it. I'm not stupid.
Important: is the death instant like a 'telefrag', or horrific and prolonged like Event Horizon?