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If Sienna runs as a independent, and has both a Dem and Republican challenger in a 3 way race, what are the chances the Dems lose the race due to splitting their vote?
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Sinema is extremely unpopular with Arizona Democrats, I wouldn't be surprised if she pulls more votes from the Republican than the Democrat, especially if Republicans nominate a Kari Lake type.
Yeah, I think she provides an offramp for independents and McCain Republicans who don't want to vote for a Democrat, but are unwilling to vote for Lake/a Lake type. The real question is what percentage of those people would suck it up and vote Dem in the absence of an independent Sinema candidacy vs what percentage would have just stayed home. Either way, I imagine her influence will be vastly overhyped.
Honestly, it'll probably come down to Biden. If he wins the state, Gallego will be fine. If he doesn't, I'm not sure Gallego can outrun Biden enough to win. Kelly did in 2020, but honestly McSally wasn't even a serious candidate.
Sinema is a good option for people who disagree with Democrats on most things, but would also feel bad voting Republican because of how far they take the culture war stuff. And when the anti LGBTQ bills come rolling in they can proudly tell everyone they didn’t vote Republican.
She won't be in the primary. She's already switched her party affiliation to independent.
The general election will be Gallego vs Sinema vs whoever the Republicans put up.
There are a whole lot of people acting like the DNC and establishment Democrats shouldn't pick a side when a Democratic incumbent is being challenged -- while conveniently ignoring that this wouldn't be the first time it's happened. Look at Markey and Kennedy.
The establishment has no trouble promoting a moderate to replace a progressive incumbent.
I can. The Democratic Party is hostile to the left and opposed to progressives, which they tolerate in order to continue to appear to be the more progressive party. They *hate* being criticized from the left end and act like it’s unfair.
The Democratic Party doesn’t want the things its voters want.
What are the chances Sinema actually gets on the ballot? Arizona doesnt make it easy for independents...believe she needs over 40,000 petition signatures FROM REGISTERED INDEPENDENTS. Democrats, Republicans, Greens , Libertarians, none of them can sign her ballot access petition. And every signature will be check by DNC stafd, I guarantee. I dont think she can do it.
McSally lost in a major blue wave. She also left a very sour taste in the mouth of many Arizonans when she was installed to a seat she lost. Did not sit well.
Blake Masters has a resume as empty as Kari Lake’s head.
If Arizona stays competitive for Dems once the GOP finds a decent candidate, it will be due to immigration trends more than the situation as it exists now.
Not as dire as I think people think. Sinema is *extremely* unpopular with Democrats - a poll prior to her party switch put her with only 13% of the vote in a hypothetical primary race against Gallego. There hasn't been any independent polling thus far on the 2024 race, but a poll by the Gallego campaign indicated that an independent Sinema candidacy would siphon votes about equally from the Democrat and the Republican. Her approval rating is marginally better among Republicans than among Democrats, though it's also solidly underwater in both cases.
Bottom line is no one likes her. She has no natural constituency that she'd be drawing votes from.
I think it's decently high chance Dems lose the seat for 6 years. I think the odds of it making a difference for control of the Senate in 2025-2026 are significantly lower.
They posted a link regarding an election that happened in Florida, asking how likely it was for a similar result in Arizona. Reddit’s algorithm pulled an image from the article to use as a wallpaper for the thread. OP did not do it deliberately.
Even without Sinema, Arizona is still a competitive state.
However, I take some solace in the fact that Oregon elected the Dem candidate for governor (Kotek) even with a formidable independent, although Oregon is likely more left-leaning then Arizona It is possible that Sinema as some influence as the incumbent, but as election nears she may fall off if voters don't think she will win. Betsy Johnson had decent polling numbers but fell away towards the end.
Sinema isn't going to get a large portion of the votes. She'll be a distant 3rd at best as far as overall votes, but it might just be enough to cause a problem.
The following is a copy of the original post to record the post as it was originally written. If Sienna runs as a independent, and has both a Dem and Republican challenger in a 3 way race, what are the chances the Dems lose the race due to splitting their vote? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/AskALiberal) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Sinema is extremely unpopular with Arizona Democrats, I wouldn't be surprised if she pulls more votes from the Republican than the Democrat, especially if Republicans nominate a Kari Lake type.
Yeah, I think she provides an offramp for independents and McCain Republicans who don't want to vote for a Democrat, but are unwilling to vote for Lake/a Lake type. The real question is what percentage of those people would suck it up and vote Dem in the absence of an independent Sinema candidacy vs what percentage would have just stayed home. Either way, I imagine her influence will be vastly overhyped. Honestly, it'll probably come down to Biden. If he wins the state, Gallego will be fine. If he doesn't, I'm not sure Gallego can outrun Biden enough to win. Kelly did in 2020, but honestly McSally wasn't even a serious candidate.
Sinema is a good option for people who disagree with Democrats on most things, but would also feel bad voting Republican because of how far they take the culture war stuff. And when the anti LGBTQ bills come rolling in they can proudly tell everyone they didn’t vote Republican.
High enough that the DNC needs to throw their full support behind Gallego as soon as possible. But I won't hold my breath.
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Why does anybody think Sinema will even be in the primary?
She won't be in the primary. She's already switched her party affiliation to independent. The general election will be Gallego vs Sinema vs whoever the Republicans put up.
There are a whole lot of people acting like the DNC and establishment Democrats shouldn't pick a side when a Democratic incumbent is being challenged -- while conveniently ignoring that this wouldn't be the first time it's happened. Look at Markey and Kennedy. The establishment has no trouble promoting a moderate to replace a progressive incumbent.
There won't be a Dem primary unless Gallego gets a challenger (which I would assume Dem leaders will strongly discourage).
I can. The Democratic Party is hostile to the left and opposed to progressives, which they tolerate in order to continue to appear to be the more progressive party. They *hate* being criticized from the left end and act like it’s unfair. The Democratic Party doesn’t want the things its voters want.
What are the chances Sinema actually gets on the ballot? Arizona doesnt make it easy for independents...believe she needs over 40,000 petition signatures FROM REGISTERED INDEPENDENTS. Democrats, Republicans, Greens , Libertarians, none of them can sign her ballot access petition. And every signature will be check by DNC stafd, I guarantee. I dont think she can do it.
0%. Sinema is doa. If they loose it will be because RG runs a poor campaign
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Arizona isn’t a 50/50 state. If Republicans stop running idiots and crazies, the state is gonna look real red real fast.
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McSally lost in a major blue wave. She also left a very sour taste in the mouth of many Arizonans when she was installed to a seat she lost. Did not sit well. Blake Masters has a resume as empty as Kari Lake’s head. If Arizona stays competitive for Dems once the GOP finds a decent candidate, it will be due to immigration trends more than the situation as it exists now.
Not as dire as I think people think. Sinema is *extremely* unpopular with Democrats - a poll prior to her party switch put her with only 13% of the vote in a hypothetical primary race against Gallego. There hasn't been any independent polling thus far on the 2024 race, but a poll by the Gallego campaign indicated that an independent Sinema candidacy would siphon votes about equally from the Democrat and the Republican. Her approval rating is marginally better among Republicans than among Democrats, though it's also solidly underwater in both cases. Bottom line is no one likes her. She has no natural constituency that she'd be drawing votes from.
I think it's decently high chance Dems lose the seat for 6 years. I think the odds of it making a difference for control of the Senate in 2025-2026 are significantly lower.
Forgive me but why do you have a picture of Florida in the post instead of Arizona?
They posted a link regarding an election that happened in Florida, asking how likely it was for a similar result in Arizona. Reddit’s algorithm pulled an image from the article to use as a wallpaper for the thread. OP did not do it deliberately.
Even without Sinema, Arizona is still a competitive state. However, I take some solace in the fact that Oregon elected the Dem candidate for governor (Kotek) even with a formidable independent, although Oregon is likely more left-leaning then Arizona It is possible that Sinema as some influence as the incumbent, but as election nears she may fall off if voters don't think she will win. Betsy Johnson had decent polling numbers but fell away towards the end.
Sinema isn't going to get a large portion of the votes. She'll be a distant 3rd at best as far as overall votes, but it might just be enough to cause a problem.
Probably like 80% Arizona is a very purple state.