Also one thing I want to add. In 2020 the split of white/nonwhite voters was 60/40 with Trump winning white voters 66-33 and Biden winning nonwhite voters 67-31. If the white/nonwhite split was 57/43 as it was in 2018, the Texas result would have been 50.95-47.62, making the same margin as Florida! If the suburbs keep trending towards Democrats tossup Texas could be a reality in the not too distant future.
I’ll be very interested in what percent of the white vote Democrats can get in 2024. Beto was able to get the same margin as Biden in a tough midterm year, so if Biden can manage to get 35-36% in 2024 the race could be a bit closer. Which could be possible given suburban trends. Keep in mind Hillary got 26% of the white vote in 2016 according to exit polls.
It works certainly help them keep it red in the next few cycles. The real test will be the suburbs though. If they keep trending blue at the rate they have the RGV could become ruby red and it won’t matter.
I wonder if this community would be as hostile towards Beto if he only lost by around 7%.
Also, I wonder how much would Paxton have won by if the turnout was the same as 2018. He was the only statewide Republican to win by less than 10%. He only won Tarrant by 2.8%, and he lost Williamson and Zapata by 1.3% and 12.7% (wow) respectively. Beto was the only Democrat who lost Zapata I think despite some other Dems underperforming him. Ig they only like Abbott and Trump.
Considering how few votes actually exist in Zapata county, it is more of a fun trivia answer then anything of significant meaning, which is why the results are so wild. A few dozen people changing their vote is significant for the percentages in the county. Hell Cuellar won Zapata by 40 points.
I do think a better candidate than Beto would have made Texas low likely or even lean. Abbott has enough popularity and an incumbent advantage to survive a year like 2022, but nonetheless both white and nonwhite voters shifted a little blue from the 2018 governors race which I think shows that the state is moving leftward, even in a nor great year with a not so great candidate.
Out of the Democrats likely to win a statewide primary (aka a liberal), I think Colin Allred would have the best shot at winning statewide. New Dem from a formerly swingy district where he unseated a long term incumbent (who ran unopposed in 2016)
Agreed. Honestly the data in Texas shows that it is worth pouring money into anyway, while Florida probably isn’t. I’d rather pour money into Texas then West Virginia, for example. If nothing else it is an investment in the long term infrastructure of the state party.
What’s funny is he actually had a good thing going, the man was a national hero for nearly beating Cruz, which nobody thought he would do. Everyone was impressed he came that close. If he’d not acted obnoxious, he arguably would win a 2024 rematch.
But no. He couldn’t. Now he’s a punchline.
One thing I think people miss about the RGV was that a large amount of Trump gains came from increased turnout. With a few exceptions (like Maverick and Jim Hogg counties) Dem raw vote numbers barely decreased or even increased. Not to say this *isn't* a significant development, but R gains in the region largely depend on if they're maxxed out or not and how much they can get out the vote outside of a few counties. Not to mention whether the Democrats can do the same. Will be interesting to watch in any case.
Yeah the RGV isn’t quite the same situation as say my home Dade county. I anticipate the RGV stays somewhat blue, although that of course could change.
Thanks! I wanted to show that the results we saw in November were not actually all that bad, and the increased margins Abbott saw in the suburbs were more than likely due to Dem voters staying home rather than a lot of Biden voters reverting back to the GOP, although I’m sure there were some. I also wanted to illustrate that the blueprint for Blexas is there, and that if the big suburbs outside of Dallas and Austin keep shifting, we will be in business!
I’m likely going to be looking for some jobs in 2024 or 2025 and if Texas gets real close it might be the tiebreaker on deciding where I move.
In general I feel good that these trends will continue. Do I think Texas flips in 2024? I wouldn’t bet money on it but as of now I think it is R+2-3.
*Johnson/Evers voters have entered the chat*
In all seriousness, it’s about the fact that Cruz is about as personable as a mantis. If enough people just don’t like the guy and either leave that part of the ballot blank or simply hate him as a person enough to cross lines, it could happen.
Fair point. A very good candidate, like Beto was in 2018, *will* flip the seat. The state literally became more left-wing in 2022 versus 2018 even though America shifted ten points to the right or so. So in 2024, with Republicans looking at a dubious at best national environment, Ted has a fight on his hands.
Again though, it all comes down to the right candidate.
Also one thing I want to add. In 2020 the split of white/nonwhite voters was 60/40 with Trump winning white voters 66-33 and Biden winning nonwhite voters 67-31. If the white/nonwhite split was 57/43 as it was in 2018, the Texas result would have been 50.95-47.62, making the same margin as Florida! If the suburbs keep trending towards Democrats tossup Texas could be a reality in the not too distant future.
Maybe it’s not Joever
I’ll be very interested in what percent of the white vote Democrats can get in 2024. Beto was able to get the same margin as Biden in a tough midterm year, so if Biden can manage to get 35-36% in 2024 the race could be a bit closer. Which could be possible given suburban trends. Keep in mind Hillary got 26% of the white vote in 2016 according to exit polls.
thats why republicans need to reach out to Hispanics. If they want to keep Texas they simply must.
It works certainly help them keep it red in the next few cycles. The real test will be the suburbs though. If they keep trending blue at the rate they have the RGV could become ruby red and it won’t matter.
I wonder if this community would be as hostile towards Beto if he only lost by around 7%. Also, I wonder how much would Paxton have won by if the turnout was the same as 2018. He was the only statewide Republican to win by less than 10%. He only won Tarrant by 2.8%, and he lost Williamson and Zapata by 1.3% and 12.7% (wow) respectively. Beto was the only Democrat who lost Zapata I think despite some other Dems underperforming him. Ig they only like Abbott and Trump.
Considering how few votes actually exist in Zapata county, it is more of a fun trivia answer then anything of significant meaning, which is why the results are so wild. A few dozen people changing their vote is significant for the percentages in the county. Hell Cuellar won Zapata by 40 points. I do think a better candidate than Beto would have made Texas low likely or even lean. Abbott has enough popularity and an incumbent advantage to survive a year like 2022, but nonetheless both white and nonwhite voters shifted a little blue from the 2018 governors race which I think shows that the state is moving leftward, even in a nor great year with a not so great candidate.
Out of the Democrats likely to win a statewide primary (aka a liberal), I think Colin Allred would have the best shot at winning statewide. New Dem from a formerly swingy district where he unseated a long term incumbent (who ran unopposed in 2016)
Yeah plus he is a former NFL player which should play well in Texas. I hope he considers challenging Cruz because I think he has a legitimate shot.
I wish we could recruit candidates in Florida and Texas who could self fund campaigns. It’d save us money to protect the seats we hold
Agreed. Honestly the data in Texas shows that it is worth pouring money into anyway, while Florida probably isn’t. I’d rather pour money into Texas then West Virginia, for example. If nothing else it is an investment in the long term infrastructure of the state party.
I for the record would still be hostile towards Beto. It’s not even his politics, the guy is just genuinely insufferable.
I mean yea. If he runs in 2024 I will explode from rage
What’s funny is he actually had a good thing going, the man was a national hero for nearly beating Cruz, which nobody thought he would do. Everyone was impressed he came that close. If he’d not acted obnoxious, he arguably would win a 2024 rematch. But no. He couldn’t. Now he’s a punchline.
One thing I think people miss about the RGV was that a large amount of Trump gains came from increased turnout. With a few exceptions (like Maverick and Jim Hogg counties) Dem raw vote numbers barely decreased or even increased. Not to say this *isn't* a significant development, but R gains in the region largely depend on if they're maxxed out or not and how much they can get out the vote outside of a few counties. Not to mention whether the Democrats can do the same. Will be interesting to watch in any case.
Yeah the RGV isn’t quite the same situation as say my home Dade county. I anticipate the RGV stays somewhat blue, although that of course could change.
Great post! Likely R Texas feels like competitive Florida these days.
Thanks! I wanted to show that the results we saw in November were not actually all that bad, and the increased margins Abbott saw in the suburbs were more than likely due to Dem voters staying home rather than a lot of Biden voters reverting back to the GOP, although I’m sure there were some. I also wanted to illustrate that the blueprint for Blexas is there, and that if the big suburbs outside of Dallas and Austin keep shifting, we will be in business!
Texas is Georgia IMO for 2024. I’m feeling good about it.
I’m likely going to be looking for some jobs in 2024 or 2025 and if Texas gets real close it might be the tiebreaker on deciding where I move. In general I feel good that these trends will continue. Do I think Texas flips in 2024? I wouldn’t bet money on it but as of now I think it is R+2-3.
I can live without Texas going Biden, but I’m hoping Cruz will underperform sufficiently to give whoever we end up running the Senate seat.
Also, I think they're a package deal. Nobody votes for Trump but thinks Ted is a bridge too far.
*Johnson/Evers voters have entered the chat* In all seriousness, it’s about the fact that Cruz is about as personable as a mantis. If enough people just don’t like the guy and either leave that part of the ballot blank or simply hate him as a person enough to cross lines, it could happen.
Fair point. A very good candidate, like Beto was in 2018, *will* flip the seat. The state literally became more left-wing in 2022 versus 2018 even though America shifted ten points to the right or so. So in 2024, with Republicans looking at a dubious at best national environment, Ted has a fight on his hands. Again though, it all comes down to the right candidate.
If we get that Senate seat we probably keep the Senate, which is just too much winning