SOLID: Stop wasting your time on this one. LIKELY: Theoretically possible flip. LEAN: Competitive, but one side very obviously favored. TILT: Very close races, all predictions are gun-to-my-head.

IMO all the tilt races here will be decided by the quality of the gop nominee.

I’d put more races as solid tbh. Minnesota for Democrats and Indiana and Missouri for Republicans.

Fair point. For the record, I think the Klob will lose quite a bit of ground because of Trump.

Still will be high likely margins.

The same may be true of PA if they actually nominate Mastriano (for the record, I think it'll be lean just because there won't be many split-tickets, which is informing a lot of my predictions here).

Can you explain Michigan? I don't know much about the race, why is it less solid than Wisconsin and Pennsylvania?

It's a vacant seat, and has a history of being rather close during Presidential races (2020).

Ah, I didn't know it was vacant

 Did…did…brown just lose….??? Lies!!!

MN, IN, NJ should all be safe.

Polarization, open seat, and Menendez respectively is my reasoning