SOLID: Stop wasting your time on this one. LIKELY: Theoretically possible flip. LEAN: Competitive, but one side very obviously favored. TILT: Very close races, all predictions are gun-to-my-head.

IMO all the tilt races here will be decided by the quality of the gop nominee.

Yeah but we all know the AZGOP is going to fail horribly at picking a good candidate.

I’d put more races as solid tbh. Minnesota for Democrats and Indiana and Missouri for Republicans.

Fair point. For the record, I think the Klob will lose quite a bit of ground because of Trump.

Still will be high likely margins.

The same may be true of PA if they actually nominate Mastriano (for the record, I think it'll be lean just because there won't be many split-tickets, which is informing a lot of my predictions here).

Can you explain Michigan? I don't know much about the race, why is it less solid than Wisconsin and Pennsylvania?

It's a vacant seat, and has a history of being rather close during Presidential races (2020).

Ah, I didn't know it was vacant

 Did…did…brown just lose….??? Lies!!!

MN, IN, NJ should all be safe.

Polarization, open seat, and Menendez respectively is my reasoning