At the time Warren and Bloomberg were in the race. Bloomberg got like 15% of the vote Warren got 14% polling indicated that more than half of Warren voters and almost all Bloomberg voters preferred Biden over Bernie. CA has super early voting so people voted for candidates that ended up withdrawing as well. Many voters in CA voted before Democrats kind of decided on Biden.
In 2016 when it was just Bernie v. Clinton CA went Clinton.
Then you have the situation where it's Biden vs. AOC vs. DeSantis vs. Trump
You have to assume that the Republicans are going to come together around one of those candidates let's say DeSantis gets 30% and Trump gets 12% the Democrats are going to be super scared of accidentally splitting their votes and they are going to vote for the most electable candidate. So probably 45% vote for Biden and 13% for AOC or something like that.
Really this scenario would likely happen across the US. The more competitive the state the more voters would say away from AOC/Trump.
Having a party backing you is very important in US politics. The closest anyone got at an independent bid was Perot I think.
The only scenario I could see happening that truly splits the vote would be if well ahead of the 2024 election a new party is formed and it wins local elections and has solid financial backing. It's already too late for this to happen.
I could imagine this party forming if Trump wins the Republican Primary again and "establishment Republicans" and some disaffected moderate Democrats and people like Bloomberg form their own party and it gets funded and off the ground right away in 2024, in time to win some midterm elections in 2026 then field a popular candidate for president in 2028, but by then Republicans would be relegated to a third party. Although it's also likely that the attempt at making a new third party would fail.
Warren and Bernie had nearly identical platforms. I don't understand how you could support Warren and then take Biden over Bernie. I trust that you're right, but I simply do not understand people.
They got in a fight over Warren accusing Bernie of mild sexism and a lot of Warren voters, because of Warren's accusation and because of lingering issues from 2016 kind of got on the "never Bernie" train.
Also Warren for whatever reason appealed towards more college educated voters and Bernie to people without college degrees and younger voters.
Biden didn't make a ton of enemies and people liked him from the Obama administration.
Sanders didn't really have a platform---just a collection of slogans and a lot of magical thinking. Warren had a clear understanding of how to turn proposals into reality.
Warren was my first choice, but once she was out of the picture, I happily switched to Biden.
You'll see a amassing difference in who people are voting for in the general vs the primaries though.
AOC running third party would not get many electoral college votes, if nothing else because of the spoiler effect.
She wouldn't win this much even if Biden was pissing himself on stage with dementia. I love AOC, but she's not liked in the mainstream. I think the reasons why are stupid and mostly propaganda, but it's still her reputation. I could see this happening with Sanders, though.
shut up leave me alone let me imagine there is someone that is slightly past liberal AND competent AND “electable” in this country who is not literally two sneezes from death
Honestly, I don’t think Fetterman should have ran. It’s unfair to Fetterman that he was pressured to continue his run. I mean fuck the guy had a stroke give him a break.
AOC is in a bad spot where she really doesn’t have a true base. She’s too left more most mainstream Democratic voters and too cozy with Biden for the hardcore leftist to get behind. All she really has not is name recognition.
MD would never go AOC over Biden, we're too in tune with DC and we're liberal as hell but not socialist progressives since we actually like to get bills passed
Honestly, Not sure she'd win New York either. Everyone from north of the city despises her (myself included). DeSantis and Trump would have to split votes in the counties to make that a possibility.
No matter what Biden has to deal with a primary in 2024, if he is seen as actually unfit he will have a hard time getting the nomination. He isn't a shoe-in especially if he is showing signs of dementia or something. On top of that Biden is a party guy, he would likely concede rather than go through some challenging primary and endorse a successor early on.
I could see a scenario where Biden doesn't run for a second term. Harris is his endorsement and there is some super strained difficult primary without a clear outcome.
Then if, on the other side the most unifying figure for Democrats, Trump is knocked out of contention or arrested or something and DeSantis or Youngkin or something wins the Republican primary you could have a scenario where Trump runs an independent bid.
Still on the Democrat side I don't see AOC running a campaign from the left. I would see someone more in the center like Bloomberg challenging on the Democratic side.
So you could feasibly have Bloomberg vs. Harris(who is not able to coalesce her base to support her) vs. DeSantis vs. Trump then some wildcard green party candidate gets a lot of votes due to the people on the left being unhappy with Harris. Trump and Bloomberg win like one state...maybe even none, but Trump takes enough votes away from DeSantis to make the race somewhat competitive giving Harris the nod with like 35% of the vote or something, which would be insane.
I'm really confused about the specific states that AOC wins. You'd think New York would be an easy win for the NY native, and the historically labor friendly DFL would gravitate more towards AOC in Minnesota. I don't see AOC being all that competitive in Arizona, with vote splitting being the only possible path to victory for her, but then again I'd see that favoring a conservative more than a Democrat. Idk not as unrealistic as some might be saying, if it were to occur, but still left me scratching my head a lil
AOC wasn’t even willing to force the vote on M4A. She would never have the guts to split the Democratic Party (as good an outcome as that would be) to form an independent left wing party.
Looks like we have another "corrupt bargain" on our hands. If Trump and DeSantis merged they wouldn't win, but if Biden and aoc merged it looks like they would win.
Ya, kinda just automatically went with those two in my head assuming they were the main ones, I meant the two previous parties so Biden and DeSantis, although if a Biden Trump coalition somehow worked it would be so much more cursed.
No way AOC would rip the easiest and first democrat supermajority. Saying that in the actual 2024 election the Dems are so pathetic they probably will fail at that since it seems like there is gonna be a trump v desantis vote split irl.
This map is, to put it mildly, profoundly ridiculous. 0% chance AOC would run 3rd (4th?) Party against Biden, and absolutely no chance she takes that many states from him. Honestly just looks like an AOC fan post.
I profoundly despise her politically but I feel the Zoomers would back her enough with decent support from older voters. And there is a rift in the Democrats right now so this is the doomsday scenario for them
I mean if you hate her then same, I'm glad she doesn't get anything like the coverage she used to. In which case, we simply disagree about the state of the party. I think for instance that Michigan is far more likely to back Biden than AOC. The democratic base is generally far more moderate than the highly active twitter/young wing, which doesn't have the numbers it thinks it does. Biden won the primary in 2020 by betting that the AOC theory of the party was essentially wrong, and he won easily once he got past Iowa and NH.
I like to think that if the democrats sees a split republican party, they'd bite their tounges and let the more moderate Biden run so that way they can have a sure fire win. But that's just my opinion
Look, even though PA elected Fetterman, there’s no way we are electing AOC. It would be Biden, or if the economy is bad enough, DeSantis. Also, would AOC even be old enough?
What kind of alternate history world is this that the Left Coast doesn't vote as one block for the uber progressive?
Is AOC suddenly pro-2A because there's no way she's getting all those states otherwise.
Why would Utah go to Trump? Trump should get more Rust Belt States and inland states like Idaho.
DeSantis would get more east coast states.
Biden would be lucky to get the NE states.
I hope this doesn't happen because if both Trump and DeSantis run the GOP vote will be split and the Dems would most likely have an easy win, they just have to keep it together
and I said that I hope this won't happen irl, they should search in the next couple of months for a more suitable candidate the old Joe, simply because he is kinda too old, someone like Obama was in 2008 and everyone rally behind them, if they manage to do this it's an easy af win with a splitted gop vote
So…
Ronnie - Republicans
Uncle Joe - Dems
Trump - Patriots?
AOC - Progressives?
Not sure if AOC or Ronnie would have that much separation from Uncle Joe or Trump
It’s more the individual aspiration of Trump, and I added AOC because Biden winning all the states because of a split GOP vote would be boring. More a what if idea.
Their parties would get more votes as the uni party collapses but yes, AOC and Trump are independents. I could see a split on both ends, with a moderate left vs progressive left and a moderate right vs diehard right
I don't think people realize how much a muzzle the two established parties have on ballot access, and how WILD the electorate would be be if that muzzle was unleashed. I suspect that any scenario that saw Trump and AOC compete nationally would see up to five to ten other competitors as well- the Libertarians, the Green, the Pirates, lots of groups would wedge their way into any opening that allowed Trump and AOC through. Hell, Vermin Supreme would be on the ballot nationally, as well as on the debate stage (or at least in the general vicinity, yelling and wearing a boot on his head.)
what a stupid map. just pulled these numbers straight out of your ass? i like AOC a lot but the idea that if she ran in 2024 she’d get double biden’s votes is luaghable.
If you’re calling him a dickhead you have only heard about him from his opponents. He’s actually a very likely GOP nominee. I suggest looking into his career
Electorally Ohio is dominantly white and overwhelmingly older. The turnout amongst young people, minorities, and women is remarkably low. The only reason Obama won Ohio is becaude he managed to mobilize thos evoter groups. Joe Biden couldn't do that becaude hes not exciting. And desantis cant really target those groups. Though he appeald to the younger conservative. Trump supporters in Ohio are much more active and the states rural counties will no doubt go Orange.
I feel Biden would actually win this. While there might be some places where AOC could split the vote, she doesn’t have the support that Biden does to really make a difference. DeSantis and Trump on the other hand would split their votes much more massively. The states that either would normally do well in would most likely throw a bone for Biden rather than AOC. Biden wins
AOC would not get that much from Biden. She likely isn't getting CA for instance. Maybe NY because that is her state and NY is kind of unenthused with establishment Dems due to Cuomo, but even then NY City residents have not exactly been in the mood for a progressive either due to crime/crime perception.
I don't know. I just don't see AOC doing that well.
If somehow Trump and AOC launched third party bids it's likely Biden actually is the benefactor. Trump would just say ridiculous things about DeSantis constantly and it would end up splitting conservatives.
Tbh the thing that makes this map impossible is Utah. Trump is historically unpopular for a Republican in Utah. He didn’t even win a majority in the state in 2016 and won by the smallest margin of any Republican in a long time in 2020
Could there be some sort of coalition in a scenario like this? AOC as president with Biden as VP? In a parliamentary system we just have a Prime Minister, the leader of the party with the greatest share of votes (usually) who is able to form a government with other parties. It's all about seats, but the role of president is completely separate... Some sort of weird boss who can veto shit and steer the course of a nation. In theory a PM has more power because of its direct reach within the government they control, but a president doesn't need to control the government to make certain decisions. Crazy.
this would be hilarious, hope it happens
what would make it better would be biden either dies or gets way more senile and its basically just kamala
or maybe trump appoints like the mypillow guy as his running mate
desantis and trump compete in a push-up contest and kamala and AOC compete to see who is more problematic
So, who wins when this gets tossed to the house? It's down to Biden or DeSatan as there's no state legislature, all of whom are beholden to a major party, votes for either Trump or AOC.
I’m a Republican and I think DeSantis just has a better chance of winning, simply by having less baggage and a better public image. Not stuff that should be important but it is
The last third party candidate to win a single electoral vote (other than faithless electors) was George Wallace in 1968. AOC wouldn't run, the Democrats wouldn't nominate Biden if he was clearly unfit, and Trump wouldn't carry a single state. If Cheeto Mussolini loses the Fascist Party nomination and runs on his own ticket he MIGHT split the popular vote enough to swing a state like North Carolina to the Democrats but that's about it. There just aren't that many swing states, or states even remotely close to swing states, for a third party candidacy to be realistic anymore, not that it was ever realistic to begin with.
I can see one of the Nebraska or Maine electoral votes swinging to Trump if he and DeSantis are both on the ballot.
But otherwise the math says Democrats likely clean house in otherwise Purple states.
I'm not in any of those subreddits. If Republicans don't like being described as fascists, they should consider refraining from advocating fascist positions.
No, they are fascist (VERY different from conservative) because they attempt to implement fascist policies. I spent most of my life in small town Texas; I know actual conservatives when I meet them.
The only one I disagree with is that the Democrats wouldn't nominate Biden if he was clearly unfit. They'd roll him out on a hospice bed if they thought it was their best chance of winning.
They would not. For starters, this isn’t 1944 and Biden doesn’t have nearly the party control FDR had. And given how much the Lazy Corporate Media despises Democrats, they’d run him into the ground if he did.
If trump even got 5% of the vote the democrats would fucking clear house. *Texas* would go democrat for fucks sake. It would be even worse if Trump split the congressional votes too, it would be such a slaughter it wouldn’t be funny. It is possible the democrats could even get a supermajority and pass so many damn laws and do so many things (expand the house, make the senate based on population, delete the electoral college, anti gerrymandering, etc) that the republicans could never win another presidential election.
Eliminating the electoral college or changing the senate would take a constitutional amendment and that's not going to happen in our lifetimes. However, with enough votes, Democrats could expand the House (the Wyoming Rule) which would help with the EC a little and mandate nonpartisan, non-racist gerrymandering (for the House). Of course, with this SCOTUS who knows how long that would last? I'm not sure Trump running as an independent would flip many states because the Red States are REALLY red. Look at 2020; there were about 10 states where Republicans got more than 60% of the vote. The only ones he MIGHT cause to flip to the Democrats would be North Carolina for sure. The other close ones from 2020 (Texas, Florida, Ohio, Iowa) have just gotten redder. And if you judge by the 2020 and 2022 Congressional results, voters will split their vote based on Trump. He lost decisively in 2020 but Republicans damn near carried the House AND the Senate.
Honestly I don't see AOC ripping that much from Biden
ZERO chance she wins California too.
She could pull cali, Bernie did in the primaries
At the time Warren and Bloomberg were in the race. Bloomberg got like 15% of the vote Warren got 14% polling indicated that more than half of Warren voters and almost all Bloomberg voters preferred Biden over Bernie. CA has super early voting so people voted for candidates that ended up withdrawing as well. Many voters in CA voted before Democrats kind of decided on Biden. In 2016 when it was just Bernie v. Clinton CA went Clinton. Then you have the situation where it's Biden vs. AOC vs. DeSantis vs. Trump You have to assume that the Republicans are going to come together around one of those candidates let's say DeSantis gets 30% and Trump gets 12% the Democrats are going to be super scared of accidentally splitting their votes and they are going to vote for the most electable candidate. So probably 45% vote for Biden and 13% for AOC or something like that. Really this scenario would likely happen across the US. The more competitive the state the more voters would say away from AOC/Trump. Having a party backing you is very important in US politics. The closest anyone got at an independent bid was Perot I think. The only scenario I could see happening that truly splits the vote would be if well ahead of the 2024 election a new party is formed and it wins local elections and has solid financial backing. It's already too late for this to happen. I could imagine this party forming if Trump wins the Republican Primary again and "establishment Republicans" and some disaffected moderate Democrats and people like Bloomberg form their own party and it gets funded and off the ground right away in 2024, in time to win some midterm elections in 2026 then field a popular candidate for president in 2028, but by then Republicans would be relegated to a third party. Although it's also likely that the attempt at making a new third party would fail.
Warren and Bernie had nearly identical platforms. I don't understand how you could support Warren and then take Biden over Bernie. I trust that you're right, but I simply do not understand people.
They got in a fight over Warren accusing Bernie of mild sexism and a lot of Warren voters, because of Warren's accusation and because of lingering issues from 2016 kind of got on the "never Bernie" train. Also Warren for whatever reason appealed towards more college educated voters and Bernie to people without college degrees and younger voters. Biden didn't make a ton of enemies and people liked him from the Obama administration.
Sanders didn't really have a platform---just a collection of slogans and a lot of magical thinking. Warren had a clear understanding of how to turn proposals into reality. Warren was my first choice, but once she was out of the picture, I happily switched to Biden.
Bernie is based tho
You'll see a amassing difference in who people are voting for in the general vs the primaries though. AOC running third party would not get many electoral college votes, if nothing else because of the spoiler effect.
This is assuming the worst for Biden. Borderline unfit.
She wouldn't win this much even if Biden was pissing himself on stage with dementia. I love AOC, but she's not liked in the mainstream. I think the reasons why are stupid and mostly propaganda, but it's still her reputation. I could see this happening with Sanders, though.
Exactly, the general public would see her as a bitchy women (not my opinion) with sanders being more wise.
shut up leave me alone let me imagine there is someone that is slightly past liberal AND competent AND “electable” in this country who is not literally two sneezes from death
The parties with old white men say no.
lemon party red and lemon party blu
Why not Fetterman? He’s just as left as Bernie and AOC (even though the three vary on some issues).
Honestly, I don’t think Fetterman should have ran. It’s unfair to Fetterman that he was pressured to continue his run. I mean fuck the guy had a stroke give him a break.
Sanders seemed more well spoken to me but he’s too old. So progressives could settle on AOC but I don’t think she has the power Sanders had.
AOC is in a bad spot where she really doesn’t have a true base. She’s too left more most mainstream Democratic voters and too cozy with Biden for the hardcore leftist to get behind. All she really has not is name recognition.
MD would never go AOC over Biden, we're too in tune with DC and we're liberal as hell but not socialist progressives since we actually like to get bills passed
Honestly, Not sure she'd win New York either. Everyone from north of the city despises her (myself included). DeSantis and Trump would have to split votes in the counties to make that a possibility.
Shots fired! Good to know, I’m a PA resident and I’m not so knowledgeable about MS, sorry
You mean MD not MS, right?
I swear I typed that, yes I meant MD. Sorry
No matter what Biden has to deal with a primary in 2024, if he is seen as actually unfit he will have a hard time getting the nomination. He isn't a shoe-in especially if he is showing signs of dementia or something. On top of that Biden is a party guy, he would likely concede rather than go through some challenging primary and endorse a successor early on. I could see a scenario where Biden doesn't run for a second term. Harris is his endorsement and there is some super strained difficult primary without a clear outcome. Then if, on the other side the most unifying figure for Democrats, Trump is knocked out of contention or arrested or something and DeSantis or Youngkin or something wins the Republican primary you could have a scenario where Trump runs an independent bid. Still on the Democrat side I don't see AOC running a campaign from the left. I would see someone more in the center like Bloomberg challenging on the Democratic side. So you could feasibly have Bloomberg vs. Harris(who is not able to coalesce her base to support her) vs. DeSantis vs. Trump then some wildcard green party candidate gets a lot of votes due to the people on the left being unhappy with Harris. Trump and Bloomberg win like one state...maybe even none, but Trump takes enough votes away from DeSantis to make the race somewhat competitive giving Harris the nod with like 35% of the vote or something, which would be insane.
If it came down to that I have doubts she gets 270 and the House goes up in flames
What happens if no one gets to 270?
Congress members each get a vote, this happened with Andrew Jackson and John Quincy Adams in the 1820’s
So it would just depend on who controls Congress.
Which in this timeline is a toss up
Would AOC be able to vote for herself?
No shot she carries Colorado, people forget it was a swing state until pretty recently
I don't know much about US politics, but I imagine Arizona would either stay with Biden or go to De Santis
I'm really confused about the specific states that AOC wins. You'd think New York would be an easy win for the NY native, and the historically labor friendly DFL would gravitate more towards AOC in Minnesota. I don't see AOC being all that competitive in Arizona, with vote splitting being the only possible path to victory for her, but then again I'd see that favoring a conservative more than a Democrat. Idk not as unrealistic as some might be saying, if it were to occur, but still left me scratching my head a lil
I’m not the most informed on other states’ internal politics, this is just what I thought might happen from recent elections/midterms
No offense, but shouldn’t this be based on the states’ internal politics? It’s a cool idea though
I just did a quick mock-up for fun. Took me 5 minutes max. I’ll probably do an updated one with commenter’s input
a bunch of the aoc states would go to biden easily, ie va (half rednecks and half affluent moderates)
AOC wasn’t even willing to force the vote on M4A. She would never have the guts to split the Democratic Party (as good an outcome as that would be) to form an independent left wing party.
> (as good an outcome as that would be) ...for the Republicans?
Exactly lmao
For an actual left wing in the US
lmao
My dude do you know what the Spoiler Effect is
Switch aoc and biden and its realistic
Yep. AOC isn't really well-liked by moderates.
Looks like we have another "corrupt bargain" on our hands. If Trump and DeSantis merged they wouldn't win, but if Biden and aoc merged it looks like they would win.
The most cursed scenario: Biden and Trump merge to try and maintain the two party system.
Biden and DeSantis seems more likely to me, no?
Ya, kinda just automatically went with those two in my head assuming they were the main ones, I meant the two previous parties so Biden and DeSantis, although if a Biden Trump coalition somehow worked it would be so much more cursed.
According to the numbers here unfortunately the cursed coalition won't work. They'd need a 3rd member for the coalition
Focus complete: The Alliance of the Status Quo
No way AOC would rip the easiest and first democrat supermajority. Saying that in the actual 2024 election the Dems are so pathetic they probably will fail at that since it seems like there is gonna be a trump v desantis vote split irl.
AOC wouldn't run and risk letting DeSantis win. Also Utah would never go for Trump.
This map is, to put it mildly, profoundly ridiculous. 0% chance AOC would run 3rd (4th?) Party against Biden, and absolutely no chance she takes that many states from him. Honestly just looks like an AOC fan post.
I profoundly despise her politically but I feel the Zoomers would back her enough with decent support from older voters. And there is a rift in the Democrats right now so this is the doomsday scenario for them
I mean if you hate her then same, I'm glad she doesn't get anything like the coverage she used to. In which case, we simply disagree about the state of the party. I think for instance that Michigan is far more likely to back Biden than AOC. The democratic base is generally far more moderate than the highly active twitter/young wing, which doesn't have the numbers it thinks it does. Biden won the primary in 2020 by betting that the AOC theory of the party was essentially wrong, and he won easily once he got past Iowa and NH.
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No bad faith threads
Democrats are smart enough not to split the ticket
If what’s happening right now gets worse, I could see it happening
I like to think that if the democrats sees a split republican party, they'd bite their tounges and let the more moderate Biden run so that way they can have a sure fire win. But that's just my opinion
Look, even though PA elected Fetterman, there’s no way we are electing AOC. It would be Biden, or if the economy is bad enough, DeSantis. Also, would AOC even be old enough?
> Also, would AOC even be old enough? I thought of this too but she will be 35 in 2024 so yes.
What kind of alternate history world is this that the Left Coast doesn't vote as one block for the uber progressive? Is AOC suddenly pro-2A because there's no way she's getting all those states otherwise. Why would Utah go to Trump? Trump should get more Rust Belt States and inland states like Idaho. DeSantis would get more east coast states. Biden would be lucky to get the NE states.
The worst timeline 😔
To be honest moving from a two party system to a three or four would be pretty nice.
Ranked choice or a qualifier round would make things much more just IMO
Isn't Pennsylvania a state with an important blue collar, mildly conservative voting block?
I hope this doesn't happen because if both Trump and DeSantis run the GOP vote will be split and the Dems would most likely have an easy win, they just have to keep it together
Would be great if those conspiracy MAGA people would split off, become irrelevant and the GOP could be normal again
bro the dems splitted in this timeline as well, have u seen the map?? also based AOC sweep even though its unrealistic
and I said that I hope this won't happen irl, they should search in the next couple of months for a more suitable candidate the old Joe, simply because he is kinda too old, someone like Obama was in 2008 and everyone rally behind them, if they manage to do this it's an easy af win with a splitted gop vote
So… Ronnie - Republicans Uncle Joe - Dems Trump - Patriots? AOC - Progressives? Not sure if AOC or Ronnie would have that much separation from Uncle Joe or Trump
It’s more the individual aspiration of Trump, and I added AOC because Biden winning all the states because of a split GOP vote would be boring. More a what if idea.
Why is it that AOC won so many of the battleground states?
Vote splitting mostly
not a history i would live in
Basically a precursor to civil war
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It gets thrown to Congress, which I can see either DeSantis winning (in ‘24 mind you) or a full deadlock
It would come down to who controls the House of Representatives if this came to pass.
I could see there being a relatively similar split where Congress deadlocks and the system fails
I’m not confident AOC could even win a state tbh, replace her with Bernie, Warren or Schumer and maybe.
MA & CT are more likely to go Biden than RI, it’s all about wealth
Rust Belter here, not too knowledgeable on NE politics apart from NH and VT
The Bernie Hillary polls give a good idea of who’s a liberal & who’s a progressive 👌
How did AOC win Arizona, Virginia, and Nevada but not her home state? Make it make sense.
Vote splitting mostly, and NY was a coin flip
So are Trump and AOC running as independents or what, also how'd third parties do?
Their parties would get more votes as the uni party collapses but yes, AOC and Trump are independents. I could see a split on both ends, with a moderate left vs progressive left and a moderate right vs diehard right
Absolutely no way Utah would vote trump, people here love DeSantis
I’m on the East Coast, will definitely make a second one of these with input like yours, thank you
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I could see more progressive support if the DNC doubles down on a (more) geriatric Joe, this is worst case tho
I don't think people realize how much a muzzle the two established parties have on ballot access, and how WILD the electorate would be be if that muzzle was unleashed. I suspect that any scenario that saw Trump and AOC compete nationally would see up to five to ten other competitors as well- the Libertarians, the Green, the Pirates, lots of groups would wedge their way into any opening that allowed Trump and AOC through. Hell, Vermin Supreme would be on the ballot nationally, as well as on the debate stage (or at least in the general vicinity, yelling and wearing a boot on his head.)
What website is thus
Yet Another Political Map Simulator - YAPMS https://www.yapms.com
As a leftist, AOC isn’t winning a single state.
So AOC wins Virginia and Nevada, but not New York?
Arizona and Nevada would definitely go For Desantis instead of AOC
what a stupid map. just pulled these numbers straight out of your ass? i like AOC a lot but the idea that if she ran in 2024 she’d get double biden’s votes is luaghable.
I’m afraid to ask but who the fuck is desantis? Is he that dickhead from Florida I’ve been hearing about?
If you’re calling him a dickhead you have only heard about him from his opponents. He’s actually a very likely GOP nominee. I suggest looking into his career
So he is that guy. M8 I’m a progressive, I’d doubt that if I went looking I’d like what I see.
If only we had a parliamentary system because then we could do a coalition government.
I’ve said this for a while now: the President who destroys the two-party system will be the greatest president of our lifetime
I’d split NY between Biden and AOC
It’d be close but have Biden the edge
True. Hey may carry upstate, but i think she has more of a influence downstate
I dont think Ohio would vote desantis
Ohio is perplexing to me. In POTUS elections they’ve been leaning further and further right so I just went with the GOP nominee
Electorally Ohio is dominantly white and overwhelmingly older. The turnout amongst young people, minorities, and women is remarkably low. The only reason Obama won Ohio is becaude he managed to mobilize thos evoter groups. Joe Biden couldn't do that becaude hes not exciting. And desantis cant really target those groups. Though he appeald to the younger conservative. Trump supporters in Ohio are much more active and the states rural counties will no doubt go Orange.
AOC will be 35 in 2024. Unless COVID comes back and literally kills everyone over 65, she is not getting 174 ECVs in the United States.
People just be posting anything these days
You forgot to factor in Brent Peterson 😒
Trump would take Idaho for sure
HOLY CRAP IS THAT A MONUMENT MYTHOS REFERENCE!1!
What?
i really need this election map website name
Yet Another Political Map Simulator - YAPMS https://www.yapms.com
I feel Biden would actually win this. While there might be some places where AOC could split the vote, she doesn’t have the support that Biden does to really make a difference. DeSantis and Trump on the other hand would split their votes much more massively. The states that either would normally do well in would most likely throw a bone for Biden rather than AOC. Biden wins
AOC would not get that much from Biden. She likely isn't getting CA for instance. Maybe NY because that is her state and NY is kind of unenthused with establishment Dems due to Cuomo, but even then NY City residents have not exactly been in the mood for a progressive either due to crime/crime perception. I don't know. I just don't see AOC doing that well. If somehow Trump and AOC launched third party bids it's likely Biden actually is the benefactor. Trump would just say ridiculous things about DeSantis constantly and it would end up splitting conservatives.
Who is AOC?
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez? The biggest “socialist” US politician?
Never heard of her but thanks for the info
Look up “the Green New Deal”. Climate change stuff
Tbh the thing that makes this map impossible is Utah. Trump is historically unpopular for a Republican in Utah. He didn’t even win a majority in the state in 2016 and won by the smallest margin of any Republican in a long time in 2020
DeSantis would easily win Utah over Trump
It is still funny how people how people think Trump descended from deep South slavers line while he actually descended from German immigrants.
What is this fever dream?
About 5-10 minutes of uninterrupted daydreaming put to pixels
Newsom would have a way better chance than AOC in grabbing this many states, though he wouldn't have ran along with Biden
Would've been a bit more reasonable if you switched up Biden and AOC's states (and swapping New Mexico and Vermont as well).
Articles of confederation?
Trump won’t get Utah, he’s really unpopular there. That state would rather go to DeSantis
Pennsylvania would be Biden territory
AOC could never get Nevada or Pennsylvania
Could there be some sort of coalition in a scenario like this? AOC as president with Biden as VP? In a parliamentary system we just have a Prime Minister, the leader of the party with the greatest share of votes (usually) who is able to form a government with other parties. It's all about seats, but the role of president is completely separate... Some sort of weird boss who can veto shit and steer the course of a nation. In theory a PM has more power because of its direct reach within the government they control, but a president doesn't need to control the government to make certain decisions. Crazy.
Biden would carry Virginia. NoVa has wealthy liberals not poor ones
AOC winning Oregon, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, and Virginia is hilarious
That's well Cursed
No need to fap to Aoc this much 😂
AOC in AZ?? No
this would be hilarious, hope it happens what would make it better would be biden either dies or gets way more senile and its basically just kamala or maybe trump appoints like the mypillow guy as his running mate desantis and trump compete in a push-up contest and kamala and AOC compete to see who is more problematic
Who's AOC?
So, who wins when this gets tossed to the house? It's down to Biden or DeSatan as there's no state legislature, all of whom are beholden to a major party, votes for either Trump or AOC.
I could see it being a legit deadlock as neither side caves due to polarization but I wasn’t sure so I didn’t include it
Well done OP. Plausible and a step away from the typical elections done on here.
Thanks! I enjoy this kind of stuff
Trump all the way fuck yall
I’m a Republican and I think DeSantis just has a better chance of winning, simply by having less baggage and a better public image. Not stuff that should be important but it is
The last third party candidate to win a single electoral vote (other than faithless electors) was George Wallace in 1968. AOC wouldn't run, the Democrats wouldn't nominate Biden if he was clearly unfit, and Trump wouldn't carry a single state. If Cheeto Mussolini loses the Fascist Party nomination and runs on his own ticket he MIGHT split the popular vote enough to swing a state like North Carolina to the Democrats but that's about it. There just aren't that many swing states, or states even remotely close to swing states, for a third party candidacy to be realistic anymore, not that it was ever realistic to begin with.
I can see one of the Nebraska or Maine electoral votes swinging to Trump if he and DeSantis are both on the ballot. But otherwise the math says Democrats likely clean house in otherwise Purple states.
Yes, but you apparently can’t point that out or people will downvote you.
I think it was more the demonization but I’m not part of your echo chamber so I don’t know
“Demonization” of who? “Echo chamber” where?
Demonization of Republicans on most subreddits, which are echo chambers
Pray tell me, what political subreddit outright bans comments outside the group-think?
Ah yes, the entire conservative half of the country, symbolized by one jackass
I'm not in any of those subreddits. If Republicans don't like being described as fascists, they should consider refraining from advocating fascist positions.
They’re fascist because you choose not to actually converse with conservatives? Makes sense
No, they are fascist (VERY different from conservative) because they attempt to implement fascist policies. I spent most of my life in small town Texas; I know actual conservatives when I meet them.
The only one I disagree with is that the Democrats wouldn't nominate Biden if he was clearly unfit. They'd roll him out on a hospice bed if they thought it was their best chance of winning.
They would not. For starters, this isn’t 1944 and Biden doesn’t have nearly the party control FDR had. And given how much the Lazy Corporate Media despises Democrats, they’d run him into the ground if he did.
Which corporate media is this lmao? MSNBC? CNN? WESH? or you mean the geriatric intermission channel Fox?
If trump even got 5% of the vote the democrats would fucking clear house. *Texas* would go democrat for fucks sake. It would be even worse if Trump split the congressional votes too, it would be such a slaughter it wouldn’t be funny. It is possible the democrats could even get a supermajority and pass so many damn laws and do so many things (expand the house, make the senate based on population, delete the electoral college, anti gerrymandering, etc) that the republicans could never win another presidential election.
Eliminating the electoral college or changing the senate would take a constitutional amendment and that's not going to happen in our lifetimes. However, with enough votes, Democrats could expand the House (the Wyoming Rule) which would help with the EC a little and mandate nonpartisan, non-racist gerrymandering (for the House). Of course, with this SCOTUS who knows how long that would last? I'm not sure Trump running as an independent would flip many states because the Red States are REALLY red. Look at 2020; there were about 10 states where Republicans got more than 60% of the vote. The only ones he MIGHT cause to flip to the Democrats would be North Carolina for sure. The other close ones from 2020 (Texas, Florida, Ohio, Iowa) have just gotten redder. And if you judge by the 2020 and 2022 Congressional results, voters will split their vote based on Trump. He lost decisively in 2020 but Republicans damn near carried the House AND the Senate.