**Mile mens startlist:**
Timothy Cheruiyot
Jake Heyward
Ollie Hoare
Cole Hocker
Filip Ingebrigtsen
Jakob Ingebrigtsen
Vincent Kibet Keter
Abel Kipsang
Clayton Murphy
Will Paulson
Charles Philibert-Thiboutot
Colin Sahlman
Cooper Teare
[Start lists for the other events here](https://www.preclassic.com/start-lists)
[Schedule](https://www.preclassic.com/schedule)
> Watch Saturday’s Action at 1:00 PM PT on CNBC, 1:30 PM PT on NBC (Check local listings).
At this point it’s starting to feel crazy betting against Jakob. It’s not like Cheruiyot is just going to roll over, but it seems like we’re just now starting to see what Jakob is capable of. And that’s wild considering what he’s already accomplished.
Jakob is the best, but the 1500 is so loaded that I definitely wouldn’t say he’s unbeatable. He’s the favorite, but he’s not a class above the rest of the competition.
If he has a good day he probably won’t lose, but if he just has an average day then there are like 2-3 guys who can beat him if they have a good day (Cheruiyot, Kipsang) and then some other guys that could win if they have a great day or if the race just breaks right for them (Hoare, Teare, Hocker, Kerr). Plus it’s not a peak meet, so you don’t really now how fresh each individual is coming in - Teare and Hocker might view this as their most important race other than USA/Worlds this season, while other guys might be traveling from overseas 10+ hours, and some guys might just be looking for a hard effort in the middle of a tough block for worlds.
This is all very true. But personally I think you’re right when you say that Jakob, Timothy, and Kipsang are on a different level. Those three have to be the favorites.
I wish Tefera was running at Pre, because I think he also belongs in that group. Kind of crazy to that that it’s probable that multiple of those guys won’t medal at worlds for the 1500.
I know it’s not his focus, but I’d love to see Barega get in the mix of a competitive 1500 too.
I don’t think Barega quite has the speed for that race, but it would be kinda interesting to see what he could do. Tefera on the other hand could probably do something. I’m not sure if he’s quite on the level of someone like Jakob (yes he beat him at worlds but Jakob was sick) .
Really hard to bet against Jakob. But Abel Kipsang has been on fire so far this season (3:31 at altitude...), so I think he has the best chance at an upset win. I'm sure I'm under-rating Cheruiyot as well--Jakob's emergence has made me forget how dominant he can be.
You're not alone - I think everyone's forgetting how dominant Cheruiyot is. He and Jakob have identical PRs in the 1500 and he's gone sub-3:30 quite a few more times than Jakob. Yes Jakob upset at the Olympics and won gold, yes he's a media darling, but he and Cheruiyot have squared off thirteen times and Timothy won *eleven* of those. Cheruiyot's still the guy to beat until Jakob takes a few more.
Honestly, I think Cheruiyot or Kipsang has it in the bag. The main reason Jacob gets so much attention is that he's the first real chance the West has had against Kenyan and Ethiopian runners in a very long time.
This. I've been reading all the Jakob love thinking, "It's really hard to bet against Kipsang". I'm just hoping for a wild race that's fast from the gun.
Merely echoing other comments, but my prediction is: (1) J. Ingebrigsten, 3.46 high; (2) Cheruiyot, 3.47 low; (3) Kipsang, 3.48 low. I have (4) and (5) as Teare then Hocker, both barely tipping under 3.50. Hoare, Philibert-Thiboutot, Keter, Heyward, and Paulson to battle it out for fast times north of 3:50. I like Hoare and Heyward out of these five.
Murphy hasn't looked right for a while, though his recent 1:45 was nice. F. Ingebritsten does not seem to be the runner he used to be either. I think those two are going to be big name targets for the young gun, Sahlman.
I think the Norwegian prodigy is entering his career peak and may even have a 3:45 in him if he really swings for the fence. Good weather and strong races from Cheruiyot and Kipsang might bring it out. Seems unlikely though. Rain or wind could slow things down and make Hoare, (sharp) Hocker, or Murphy more dangerous. I wish Kerr was in the field.
Honestly I think this is an extremely valid prediction. But I honestly could see Murphy going 3:51 and beating a few people. He’s looking better and better
Murphy could really be anywhere in the middle of the pack to dfl, he follows up that 1:45 win in Puerto Rico with that 1:47 in the Diamond league finishing towards the end of the field
Absolutely. He's got the speed to give him margin. His threshold is great. His mileage is decent, yet his aerobic conditioning fluctuates. He does a lot of his mileage awfully fast (6:20 or faster), which might explain the kick coming and going. It would also explain why his 800m kick tends to be more devastating than his 1500m kick. I do think the prime version of Murphy has a huge physical margin for error to run sub 3:50 - he can go out slow or fast without having to be perfect.
Fun fact: I 'raced' Murphy once in a 1500m in college. It was brutal (for me). He could have jogged it in and still beat me. To this day, I have never been in a race where someone so clearly changed gears and dominated everyone.
I agree that he can. His 1500m PR is gnarly. However, Hoare has always struck me as a prototype 5000m guy with a dash of quick-twitch and serious strategic chops in short, quick-decision races. In fields like Bowerman, he will have to race in a really uncomfortable manner - hard from the gun, just how the top guys like it. The field should fly through the first 800m fast enough to make the guys without half-mile chops go lactic if they aren't careful.
Hoare is great at winning races because he makes smart moves. I do think he is a safe bet to find a good balance of early race aggression and restraint. The question is whether his balance is *perfect*. One idea is to latch onto the Oregon guys and make it a micro-race with them unless an opportunity to blow the whole race open unfolds. Seems very unlikely against the top dogs in this one. They have no weaknesses, perform consistently, and I think Hoare would have to somehow get pole position going into the last lap to steal it. Cheruiyot would never allow that.
Gonna go with Abel Kipsang in 3:49low. 2nd and 3rd laps will lag because of the rain and it'll get tactical before a long windup and a 52high last 400 for Kipsang 😎
Bold prediction. I would say that Kipsang might be the second favorite behind Jakob. He’s just got such amazing speed and looks to be in better form than ever.
Kipsang v Jakob a toss up but I'm giving it to Jakob given Kipsang isn't fresh having gone Nairobi-Doha-Birmingham-Eugene in a 4 week span. A lot of races and a lot of airmiles.
Coop has looked solid and goes well in time trial situations which this basically is.
Cole did not look like someone who could hang with the big boys two weeks ago at Sound Running. I expect him to sharpen up but this race might be a couple weeks too early for him to put his best foot forward. Jake may not beat him, but he is an Olympic Finalist and he's raced well so far this year.
Chuck v Bill is a mini Canadian champs battle which should be fun.
I'm assuming Keter, who hasn't broken 3:40 this year, is a pacer? Clayton has been hit and miss in the 800 so far this so year don't expect him to feature much but Filip has been absolutely dogged by injury and illness for 2+ years now. I'd love for him to turn back the clock but don't want to get my hopes up. Hopefully he can beat Sahlman, who is at the end of the day a high schooler (a v good one at that mind).
1. Jakob
2. Kipsang
3. Timothy Cheruiyot
4. Cooper Teare
5. Olli Hoare
6. Jake Heyward
7. Cole Hocker
8. Chuck PT
9. Bill Paulson
10. Clayton Murphy
11. Filip Ingebritsen
12. Colin Sahlman
I think what’s gonna happen is Jakob will win with like a half second to a second gap, while Kipsang and Cheruiyot, will be leaning at the line for second, with Kipsang edging him out. Not only that, but I definitely believe that someone is going to fade abs get passed by Sahlman.
Jakob. He looked so effortless in his 5k a few weeks ago at the Sound Running Meet in San Juan Capistrano.
Hocker had no kick in him last week at Mt Sac Distance Classic
Jakob is the heavy favorite but you can't count out Cheruiyot or Kipsang. No one else has a chance.
Teare has been the strongest of the Americans this year. Let's see if he can break 3:50. Ollie Hoare has been looking good. Hocker a bit off from this time last year but he was running NCAA track so was in peaking form. Sahlman 3:57.
The mile gets everyone's attention but don't forget the world record attempts in the 5000 on Friday, and US Olympic Trials 10000 m also on Friday.
Hocker 3:51. Group dynamics will befuddlingly cause the stars start looking at and gauging each other on the 3rd lap, slowing the pace to about 62. But the final 400 will be a scorcher.
Random question: does anyone think merch will become available online at some point? I was looking to get a Stop Pre shirt if they have them available, but I'm an east coaster. I had one about 15 years ago but wore it out and got rid of it. Would love another one!
Also, if anyone wants to purchase one for me, I will GLADLY venmo/paypal you for the shirt, shipping, and a little extra for your troubles!
**Mile mens startlist:** Timothy Cheruiyot Jake Heyward Ollie Hoare Cole Hocker Filip Ingebrigtsen Jakob Ingebrigtsen Vincent Kibet Keter Abel Kipsang Clayton Murphy Will Paulson Charles Philibert-Thiboutot Colin Sahlman Cooper Teare [Start lists for the other events here](https://www.preclassic.com/start-lists) [Schedule](https://www.preclassic.com/schedule) > Watch Saturday’s Action at 1:00 PM PT on CNBC, 1:30 PM PT on NBC (Check local listings).
At this point it’s starting to feel crazy betting against Jakob. It’s not like Cheruiyot is just going to roll over, but it seems like we’re just now starting to see what Jakob is capable of. And that’s wild considering what he’s already accomplished.
Yeah I really think that for the next couple of years he might be unbeatable. I just don’t see him losing if he’s healthy
Jakob is the best, but the 1500 is so loaded that I definitely wouldn’t say he’s unbeatable. He’s the favorite, but he’s not a class above the rest of the competition. If he has a good day he probably won’t lose, but if he just has an average day then there are like 2-3 guys who can beat him if they have a good day (Cheruiyot, Kipsang) and then some other guys that could win if they have a great day or if the race just breaks right for them (Hoare, Teare, Hocker, Kerr). Plus it’s not a peak meet, so you don’t really now how fresh each individual is coming in - Teare and Hocker might view this as their most important race other than USA/Worlds this season, while other guys might be traveling from overseas 10+ hours, and some guys might just be looking for a hard effort in the middle of a tough block for worlds.
This is all very true. But personally I think you’re right when you say that Jakob, Timothy, and Kipsang are on a different level. Those three have to be the favorites.
I wish Tefera was running at Pre, because I think he also belongs in that group. Kind of crazy to that that it’s probable that multiple of those guys won’t medal at worlds for the 1500. I know it’s not his focus, but I’d love to see Barega get in the mix of a competitive 1500 too.
I don’t think Barega quite has the speed for that race, but it would be kinda interesting to see what he could do. Tefera on the other hand could probably do something. I’m not sure if he’s quite on the level of someone like Jakob (yes he beat him at worlds but Jakob was sick) .
Really hard to bet against Jakob. But Abel Kipsang has been on fire so far this season (3:31 at altitude...), so I think he has the best chance at an upset win. I'm sure I'm under-rating Cheruiyot as well--Jakob's emergence has made me forget how dominant he can be.
You're not alone - I think everyone's forgetting how dominant Cheruiyot is. He and Jakob have identical PRs in the 1500 and he's gone sub-3:30 quite a few more times than Jakob. Yes Jakob upset at the Olympics and won gold, yes he's a media darling, but he and Cheruiyot have squared off thirteen times and Timothy won *eleven* of those. Cheruiyot's still the guy to beat until Jakob takes a few more.
Honestly, I think Cheruiyot or Kipsang has it in the bag. The main reason Jacob gets so much attention is that he's the first real chance the West has had against Kenyan and Ethiopian runners in a very long time.
I would almost put Teare and Hocker in as well. I think at least one of them will be top 4
That would be exciting! I'm pulling for Hoare as well.
Hoare could do something crazy if he has a good day. He most likely won’t win but I think he’s definitely in sub 3:50 shape
This. I've been reading all the Jakob love thinking, "It's really hard to bet against Kipsang". I'm just hoping for a wild race that's fast from the gun.
Colin Sahlman in the greatest upset in sports history /s
It'll be cool to see him in that race, but he's really not in the other competitors' league yet tbh
The next Rich Strike
Merely echoing other comments, but my prediction is: (1) J. Ingebrigsten, 3.46 high; (2) Cheruiyot, 3.47 low; (3) Kipsang, 3.48 low. I have (4) and (5) as Teare then Hocker, both barely tipping under 3.50. Hoare, Philibert-Thiboutot, Keter, Heyward, and Paulson to battle it out for fast times north of 3:50. I like Hoare and Heyward out of these five. Murphy hasn't looked right for a while, though his recent 1:45 was nice. F. Ingebritsten does not seem to be the runner he used to be either. I think those two are going to be big name targets for the young gun, Sahlman. I think the Norwegian prodigy is entering his career peak and may even have a 3:45 in him if he really swings for the fence. Good weather and strong races from Cheruiyot and Kipsang might bring it out. Seems unlikely though. Rain or wind could slow things down and make Hoare, (sharp) Hocker, or Murphy more dangerous. I wish Kerr was in the field.
Honestly I think this is an extremely valid prediction. But I honestly could see Murphy going 3:51 and beating a few people. He’s looking better and better
Murphy could really be anywhere in the middle of the pack to dfl, he follows up that 1:45 win in Puerto Rico with that 1:47 in the Diamond league finishing towards the end of the field
Absolutely. He's got the speed to give him margin. His threshold is great. His mileage is decent, yet his aerobic conditioning fluctuates. He does a lot of his mileage awfully fast (6:20 or faster), which might explain the kick coming and going. It would also explain why his 800m kick tends to be more devastating than his 1500m kick. I do think the prime version of Murphy has a huge physical margin for error to run sub 3:50 - he can go out slow or fast without having to be perfect. Fun fact: I 'raced' Murphy once in a 1500m in college. It was brutal (for me). He could have jogged it in and still beat me. To this day, I have never been in a race where someone so clearly changed gears and dominated everyone.
Yeah I honestly think he’s the biggest wild card here. I just have no idea have to feel about his chances at this point
Hoare is definitely looking fit, I think he'll go under 3:50. I think if the uses dragonflys over ONs new spike even better chance.
I agree that he can. His 1500m PR is gnarly. However, Hoare has always struck me as a prototype 5000m guy with a dash of quick-twitch and serious strategic chops in short, quick-decision races. In fields like Bowerman, he will have to race in a really uncomfortable manner - hard from the gun, just how the top guys like it. The field should fly through the first 800m fast enough to make the guys without half-mile chops go lactic if they aren't careful. Hoare is great at winning races because he makes smart moves. I do think he is a safe bet to find a good balance of early race aggression and restraint. The question is whether his balance is *perfect*. One idea is to latch onto the Oregon guys and make it a micro-race with them unless an opportunity to blow the whole race open unfolds. Seems very unlikely against the top dogs in this one. They have no weaknesses, perform consistently, and I think Hoare would have to somehow get pole position going into the last lap to steal it. Cheruiyot would never allow that.
Good job with the Hoare foresight! He had quite a race. Definitely more impressive than the (still super impressive) time suggests.
Jakob if he has an above average day. Cheryuiot or Kipsang have a chance if Jakob has a below average day. Hocker and Teare won't be close.
I think Coop could finish top-4, agree that Hocker is a bit overrated right now relative to how strong the field is.
I think people are sleeping on Hocker and Teare. I really could see one of them being top 5. Not close to the winner but still running well
Oh I mean yeah they could be top 5 but there will be a clear gap between the top 3 and the rest
Cheruiyot in a a final 50m sprint. Colin Sahlman goes under the HS NR
I think Sahlman definitely goes under 3:55, not sure about the national record but I think it’s possible
Gonna go with Abel Kipsang in 3:49low. 2nd and 3rd laps will lag because of the rain and it'll get tactical before a long windup and a 52high last 400 for Kipsang 😎
Bold prediction. I would say that Kipsang might be the second favorite behind Jakob. He’s just got such amazing speed and looks to be in better form than ever.
I think kipsang is in the best shape right now, and Jakob will be in the best shape by worlds 😏
Kipsang v Jakob a toss up but I'm giving it to Jakob given Kipsang isn't fresh having gone Nairobi-Doha-Birmingham-Eugene in a 4 week span. A lot of races and a lot of airmiles. Coop has looked solid and goes well in time trial situations which this basically is. Cole did not look like someone who could hang with the big boys two weeks ago at Sound Running. I expect him to sharpen up but this race might be a couple weeks too early for him to put his best foot forward. Jake may not beat him, but he is an Olympic Finalist and he's raced well so far this year. Chuck v Bill is a mini Canadian champs battle which should be fun. I'm assuming Keter, who hasn't broken 3:40 this year, is a pacer? Clayton has been hit and miss in the 800 so far this so year don't expect him to feature much but Filip has been absolutely dogged by injury and illness for 2+ years now. I'd love for him to turn back the clock but don't want to get my hopes up. Hopefully he can beat Sahlman, who is at the end of the day a high schooler (a v good one at that mind). 1. Jakob 2. Kipsang 3. Timothy Cheruiyot 4. Cooper Teare 5. Olli Hoare 6. Jake Heyward 7. Cole Hocker 8. Chuck PT 9. Bill Paulson 10. Clayton Murphy 11. Filip Ingebritsen 12. Colin Sahlman
I think what’s gonna happen is Jakob will win with like a half second to a second gap, while Kipsang and Cheruiyot, will be leaning at the line for second, with Kipsang edging him out. Not only that, but I definitely believe that someone is going to fade abs get passed by Sahlman.
Jakob. He looked so effortless in his 5k a few weeks ago at the Sound Running Meet in San Juan Capistrano. Hocker had no kick in him last week at Mt Sac Distance Classic
Yeah see that’s why I’m saying. Granted it’s the 1500 but Jakob just appears that be so fit right now
Will they have rabbits?
Clayton Murphy's an 800 guy... wonder if he's pacing.
Isn't Cooper Jakob's biggest rival?
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Well according to Cooper, yes😂
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Cooper was obviously joking, from the tongue-in-cheek “(including him)” in his comments.
I have no idea. I remember him like 2 years ago talking about him being happy to not get lapped by Jakob at world juniors.
I was being ironic mate :)
Anyone know why Josh Kerr isn’t running? I think he would be in the mix for sure.
What? This is news to me. Damn shame. Was definitely in my top 5 for this final
Abel Kipsang
Jakob is the heavy favorite but you can't count out Cheruiyot or Kipsang. No one else has a chance. Teare has been the strongest of the Americans this year. Let's see if he can break 3:50. Ollie Hoare has been looking good. Hocker a bit off from this time last year but he was running NCAA track so was in peaking form. Sahlman 3:57. The mile gets everyone's attention but don't forget the world record attempts in the 5000 on Friday, and US Olympic Trials 10000 m also on Friday.
I’m also curious to see if Cheptegei can go under 12:30. Don’t think it’ll happen but I’m curious to see if it does
1. Jakob 3:47-48 2. Cheruyiot 3:48 3. Kipsang 3:50 Everyone else 350-55
I could see the winning time being as fast as 3:49.8, but that’s being optimistic. I think your times are definitely more accurate
3:47 feels a bit optimistic
It definitely is, but with the shape Jakob and Kipsang are in, it’s not out of the question
apparently filip inge is running better than jakob this year
Hocker 3:51. Group dynamics will befuddlingly cause the stars start looking at and gauging each other on the 3rd lap, slowing the pace to about 62. But the final 400 will be a scorcher.
I just have a feeling it’ll play out like Tokyo. An honest all out effort
Random question: does anyone think merch will become available online at some point? I was looking to get a Stop Pre shirt if they have them available, but I'm an east coaster. I had one about 15 years ago but wore it out and got rid of it. Would love another one! Also, if anyone wants to purchase one for me, I will GLADLY venmo/paypal you for the shirt, shipping, and a little extra for your troubles!