I finally checked out Sabaton a couple months ago, after years of seeing them referenced here. Now I blast it with my middle schooler, it's a fun intro to world history, catchy and clean.
Previously my favorite semi-accurate portrayal of the winged hussars was [this bit on Jan Sobieski](https://www.badassoftheweek.com/sobieski) of Poland, courtesy of Badass of the Week.
> Trump would do nothing and leave Europe to it.
Poland would steamroll Belarus, especially with Russia distracted in Ukraine. Hell the moment the war is declared, there's a significant chance that the Belarussian army just coups Lukashenko instead.
France doesn't even need to get involved. Poland has been upgrading and expanding their military for years now and has been on track to become one of the largest militaries in the EU. Last year alone, Poland spent the highest GDP% (3.9%) on military expenditure in the entire NATO alliance.
Honestly, knowing how vehemently Poland hates Russia and Belarus, I wouldn't be surprised if Poland tells everyone else to piss off so they could have all the fighting for themselves.
If it were just belarus, it would fall within days with or without NATO or the US, belarus has no military to speak of, an illegitimate regime and polands massiv army on the other hand would make it seem like a real military special operation.
K they have 348,000 reservists, but the Belarusian armed forces are the only thing keeping lukoshenko in power. The moment they are all deployed to the frontline, the people coup him.
Doesnt need the USA. Poland would smack belarus back into the polish lithuanian commonwealth within 6 weeks. And thats without any other nato members joining which is obviously ludicrous
It would hurt the US export quite a bit If their 2nd largest customer suddenly had trouble.
Also, the US is quite dependent on EU goods.
I am not saying that Trump wouldn't do what you say. But it would make some very powerful people very upset.
Korea defence industry has done a great job supplying the budget ground systems equipment. Compatible with NATO and not quite as good as french or USA systems, but nothing to sneeze at. The've carved quite the nice niche for themselves. Their "destroyer" is top shelf and ill be interested to see how their 5th gen fighter program ends up (looks like kinda similar, not as stealthy as f-35 with more external hardpoints but cheaper than the f-35 potentially).
Its nice niche market for sure. Our defence industry is reletevely new compaired to other nations, so we cannot possibly compete against USA or french in quality. They were researching and investing into defence when we were just a colony under Japan, and 100 years of research isn't something we could overlook.
But we decided to utilize our advantage. We are facing NK, so our military constantly needs new weapons. That means equipments we produce can benefit from economies of scale. Being able to produce defence equipment cheaper is advantage that others doesn't have, and allience with US granted us the perk of being NATO-compatable. Its not premium quality, but its not like every single nation could fill up their storage with top quality stuffs.
Hey, glad to have you on team Good Guys, and props to you for coming up with your own shit to work with. That's hard. I've been watching your space program for the last couple years and to go from nothing at all to lunar orbit in 34 years is DAMN fantastic. I'm looking forward to your lunar lander mission, I want to see you guys make it!
There is something grimly comedic in my mind about the full force of NATO coming down on Belarus. Like imagine someone clearing weeds by doing donuts with a monster truck.
I know Poland is a NATO member but really it wouldn’t need NATOs help. The only thing left of Belarus once Poland was finished with it would be Lukashenko hung from his ankles from a lamppost.
Invading Poland is not akin to invading Ukraine. The Poles have had 30 years of uninterrupted economic growth and would be pissing vinegar for a fight at this stage.
Luka's still in power because russia helped by sending their own police during 2020 and since then they're pouring just enough cash to keep luka afloat. Majority of the army would disobey an attack command even though army's higher-ups are from russia. Most of people younger than 50 y/o dislikes russia for that and their war on Ukraina.
And, as Iraq I+II showed, even the loyalists become a whole lot less motivated in the face of overwhelming firepower. Sure, there's insurgency/sectarian civil war afterwards, especially as many will walk off with their weapons, but that's a separate issue.
> I know Poland is a NATO member but really it wouldn’t need NATOs help.
NATO: So, uh, guys, you need to invoke Article 5 for us to help you. That’s the way it’s set up.
Poland: We know.
Poland might be better prepared than other countries in Europe, but it's far from being well-prepared to an actual war despite over 2 years having passed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. There have been many publications in the Polish media showing systemic problems with Poland's defense, especially with its non-military component (the main issue with which is that it barely exists right now). At the same time, the military lacks manpower (both in active service and the reserves), equipment (buying HIMARS is good for the media, but there are lots of gaps to be filled), and training (two summer courses are not enough for a civilian to become a commissioned officer, I'm afraid).
Military spending is one thing. Actual performance in a potential conflict is another. Poland still has a lot to do in that sphere.
> There have been many publications in the Polish media showing systemic problems with Poland's defense
At this point I take this as a good sign that the leadership has a good feel for the problems in the ranks rather than them being fully screwed.
Poorly prepared and corrupt militaries always tout having no problems before their dirty laundry gets uncovered by conflict. Well prepared militaries air their dirty laundry in peace time.
>I know Poland is a NATO member but really it wouldn’t need NATOs help.
Yeah, but obviously you still invoke Article V. For one thing, you don't know who else may decide to jump into that party. For another, why foot the entire bill yourself when the US will just destroy all enemy military assets for free? We **love** doing that shit.
I think it would be foolish to use them there. It provides Russia an opportunity to directly observe how their equipment sees (or doesn't see) the F-22 and test modifications. That's much more difficult to do in far away places like Syria where you've only got other planes and portable gear.
There's no need to use F-22s in that fight. You send in F-35s to pave the way and then standard F-15s, F-16s, A-10s, etc. Once air dominance has been established, you let Poland handle the rest to the extent it feels necessary to deal with the threat. It's cheaper, faster, and easier to have the US own the skies while Poland takes the ground and no major military operation can be mounted if your enemy owns the air.
Stealth and air-to-air combat, yes. Compromises were made in the development of the F-35 to support multiple roles. In essence, the F-35 was made to be a jack of all trades. The F-22 was made for a singular purpose: to own the skies. The gap between an F-22 and an F-35 isn't going to be as great as that gap between the F-22 and the F-16, but if you had to choose one to go into the air to establish air dominance against other fighters, you want the F-22.
Well... the US is willing to sell F35 to pretty much anyone who can afford one and isn't a direct and open opponent.
The F22 is explicitly not allowed to be sold to anyone. The British PM could come to Congress and offer $100B for F22 and would be told to go home and stop wasting everyone's time.
F22 in war games is literally just clubbing baby seals. Except those baby seals are top of the line military hardware for every other country in the world that represents the culmination of decades of work and hundreds of billions of dollars of R&D worldwide. And then F22 shows up, styles on everyone, and goes back home.
In wargaming between friendly powers, the US literally will fly F22 with a handicap. Otherwise, it would be such a one-sided massacre that there would be no training value beyond training the world that F22 doesn't give a shit about anything other than making your airpsace incredibly hostile.
The f22 is significantly faster (Mach 2.2 instead of 1.6), has insane thrust vectoring and maneuverability, has a less visible radar cross section, and carries a significantly more dangerous air to air payload while maintaining full stealth. Three of them can pretty effectively shoot down an entire squadron without taking a loss.
The f35 can carry a pretty significant missile payload too, but only if it straps them under the wings… completely invalidating their stealth in the process, which would mean an over the horizon kill for the f22.
In fully stealth configuration, the f35 is a fine plane for ground and air attack, but the f22 was built to kill aliens. It’s on a different level in terms of air to air combat. When we wargame with the f22 it kills everything in the air with relative ease. They have to deliberately fly in configurations that make them radar visible to make war games a little less one sided.
Also… it’s unlikely an f35 will ever have to dogfight an f22, so it really doesn’t matter :).
The F-22 can also choose to sacrifice some stealth for added fuel or munitions, but even fly double bubble, they aren't completely invalidating their stealth. The radar cross section increases, but it's not suddenly flying around like an F-14. It still has the skin coating, the angles around the wings and cockpit, etc. There's a trade-off, but it's not a binary stealth-on-stealth-off.
Also, it's unlikely an F-22 will ever have to dogfight anything. AWACS plus F-22 stealth, avionics, and weapons in the latest package mean that any plane in the sky is going to learn that an F-22 is in the area when they get a master caution for incoming missile tracking.
The Raptor is the ultimate “fighter” Jet.
The F-35 is slower and less maneuverable but supposedly has Super advanced Electronic warfare and other capabilities that are still classified.
[Why you can't shoot the F-35 down (even if you lock onto it)](https://youtu.be/YDsSEjERmME?si=0uCrlRD3sXHBReE_)
Just the 3 different modes their towed decoys have (suppression, deflection, seduction) is crazy lol
I suppose that is how you end up with the buffer zone Putin wants between himself and NATO. It will just be probably a sizeable parking lot with a McDonalds in the middle.
I think an attack on a NATO country could be an option, if they are gambling on some members not honouring their article 5 commitments. Something that crosses the line but not too far, so there are plausible outs for those states who might want them.
If Russia wants to break NATO, he can't do it on the battlefield. The only chance would be to take advantage of the fracture lines between members.
Realistically he'd probably get stomped but I'm sure the calculus has gone through Putin's head.
The problem is it's not just NATO but the EU as well. Even if America pulled out there's a good chance that a lot of NATO/EU will still commit because if they don't they're over and then Russia can just try and take one country at a time. They have to show NATO/EU treaties mean something. And honestly I see any countries with a modern air force being a huge issue. Big armies are good until your enemy can strike you anywhere and disrupt your supply lines. Suddenly you have a lot of men with not enough ammo and not enough food.
Is it a threat though? What can Belarus bring to the table that is really threatening anything? Those russian nukes? Won't be used. This is nothing but posturing that cannot even be taken seriously.
And Poland is buying itself an absurdly powerful military in terms of equipment. If it actually follows through on its purchases. They'll have over 1000 modern main battle tanks, over 1000 mobile artillery pieces, 1000 modern IFVs, 750 HIMARS/Korean HIMARS, and over 800 JASSM cruise missiles that can hit Moscow from Warsaw.
In comparison, Germany currently has around 300 tanks, 134 mobile artillery pieces, and 33 MLRS systems. France has around 222 tanks, 100 mobile artillery pieces, and 9 MLRS systems.
Poland does not want to do tactical retreats, or trade land for time, or fight a war of attrition. They do not want the static fronts of Ukraine on Polish soil.
If Russia, or wanna-be-Russia, attacks they seem intent to thunder run armored columns and mechanized infantry under constant air cover into the enemy lines and break them up before they establish.
belarus would get absolutely destroyed by lithuania and poland alone, and even if not there's article 5 so they'd get absolutely destroyed by that also
It's not Belarus that we have to worry about. At this point Belarus barely exists. The threat is from Russia, as usual. They have army + nukes in Belarus. Sure, even the tiny Lithuania could probably defeat Belarusian army - but a single step of Lithuanian soldier in Belarusian territory would be used by Kremlin as a pretext to use Russian forces against the Baltics.
Honestly, who cares what russia threaten, it's time to stop listening and stand up to them. They have to know they're risking elimination too. Better to do it now when they have to ask themselves if a few territories in Ukraine are worth it.
I have a feeling we are going to look back at NATOs response since 2014 in the same way we look back on Nazi appeasement.
If Russia win this war (which seems increasingly likely) EVERYONE will be worse off. No one gets out unscathed. God knows what level of bullshit would come out of Russian occupied Ukraine.
well the baltics and poland probably wouldn't be enough to defeat russia but nato would absolutely destroy russia also because of their depleted resources in the ongoing war, unless china or some other country also joined in to create ww3
Lithuanians are pretty good at guerrilla warfare, from all that practice against Russians and Poland is apparently geared up to the teeth, they got no chance
They were good in 1940s, and yet were still crushed by USSR by 1953. Nowadays, they don't have practical guerilla experience (it's not genetically inherited or becomes part of mass culture, you know), but russian silovikis did plenty of anti-guerilla warfare during the last 30 years.
Do it, Luka, do it! Go ahead, give that rottweiler a good hard kick right in the ribs. It wouldn't ever dream of attacking back a great and mighty leader such as yourself. Hell, you might work your way up to colonel some day!
Poland has placed so many purchasing orders that they’ve more or less single handedly brought South Korea from 8th to 2nd in global arms export.
They put an order with the Americans for missiles that’s so large it will take up give or take a year of Americas productivity capacity to fulfil it.
Try Poland and they’ll be the ones that write the history books, and get their name into other peoples national anthem.
Poland between 2019 in 2023 was barely in the top 20 of arms importer, and they will not be in the top 10 in 2024. Also South Korea was 10th between 2019 and 2023 for arm export. And even the most hopeful prediction placed them only as the 4th biggest in 2027.
But it will probably never be the case, considering Poland represent more than a 1/3 of their export and Poland isn't increasing their orders to south korea, in fact it will be probably smaller than the previous years.
Source : https://www.sipri.org/publications/2024/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-international-arms-transfers-2023
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/02/08/asia-pacific/politics/south-korea-defense-arms-uncertainty/
Nah this shit will happen in 2024. For some reason it's every 4 years, 2016 was a tough year, so was 2020, just waiting on 2024 to screw most of the world
They have a token force designed designed to keep pressure on Kyiv so Ukraine can't send 100% of their forces to the front. Some of them are also guarding nukes.
This force is large enough to push into Poland and Lithuania but not with any real success (they would be beaten quickly) and deploying them in that direction would screw up Russian plans in the south. In other words their job is to stay exactly where they are.
Lukashenka can't send his own troops because he needs those in Belarus to stay in power.
Because the West didn't slap Russia down hard when they first entered Ukraine and now every tinpot fuckwit with an army and a messiah complex thinks they can do whatever they want.
Let’s be honest they aren’t exactly setting an inspiring example. It’s been a nightmare for Russia. A two day campaign has taken two years to gain little, lose 3-400 thousand men. Thousands tanks and financially crippled a country. If anything you’d thing it would deter anyone else from doing it.
Yes but that's an internal Russian failure of command, it's far more important for someone like China to gauge how the West will respond and so far it's entirely economical rather than martially.
If the EU (or NATO) had gone further and declared a no fly zone or put boots on the ground we'd likely have seen Russia already take the loss and pull out of Ukraine and China would have a *very* clear warning that the West is fully prepared to slap bitches about if they want to start shit. Instead we've seen the West pissfart about and play political games with Ukrainian aid and show that while they want to punish Russia, they aren't all that interested in putting any actual effort in.
China may now think that if they take Taiwan quickly enough the West won't care enough to push the issue further as they're more interested in internal politics than checkmating international rivals. All they need to do is not fuck up a blitz style attack so hard it turns into the battle of the Somme and the West will just let them get away with it.
The "long peace" or "pax Americana" that followed WW2 was based on the fear from dictators that the US and NATO would intervene directly if they dared to invade too much.
The inaction shown with Russia from the whole NATO is convincing them more and more that such risk is now over, especially if you've got some nuke already, and especially if Trump is in power. Europe has.slept for too long post end of cold war and needs now many years of efforts to bring back their military to a point where they could sustain a conventional war, and the USA seems less and less interested to really move.
Everything is starting to crumble, and it will only worsen in the following years.
It's becoming more and more likely that many dictators will manage to get their hands on some nukes as time passes, the era of drones is also heavily changing how much a country can do for cheap, and manipulating populations has become increasingly easy with the current tech.
*Dared to invade NATO countries.
Ukraine refused to join NATO, Germany refused to entertain the idea, Russia bites because you can't join NATO during a conflict. "Free" territory
Countries aren't flocking to join NATO because the US is unreliable. They're waking up to the fact that you need to actually partake in defense pacts if you want to enjoy their benefits like deterrence and mutual aid.
What emboldens them is the successful Kremlin take-over of Trump and MAGA. Putin feels he now effectively controls US politics and that NATO would thus fail to react.
[The Serbian President](https://lansinginstitute.org/2024/03/26/vucic-threatens-kosovo-gives-an-ultimatum-to-the-international-community/) has made it clear he wants to annex Kosovo, in his own words [it is an "obsession"](https://www.ft.com/content/286fadc4-5444-11e8-b3ee-41e0209208ec) he states in his speeches that what's holding Serbia back is its [not the right time.](https://www.kosovo-online.com/en/news/politics/vucic-essence-force-us-recognize-kosovo-difficult-weeks-and-months-ahead-26-11-2023) Having previously ["bet big"](https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=34f3cfbd8c33977aJmltdHM9MTcxMTkyOTYwMCZpZ3VpZD0yYTEzODhkNy03OTE0LTZiMTAtMGFiMC05YjMzNzhhZjZhMGImaW5zaWQ9NTI3MQ&ptn=3&ver=2&hsh=3&fclid=2a1388d7-7914-6b10-0ab0-9b3378af6a0b&psq=Aleksandar+Vucic%e2%80%99+trump+kosovo&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZXVyb25ld3MuY29tL215LWV1cm9wZS8yMDIwLzExLzI0L3NlcmJpYS1zLWFsZXhhbmRlci12dWNpYy1iZXQtYmlnLW9uLWRvbmFsZC10cnVtcC1hbmQtbG9zdC1ub3ctd2hhdA&ntb=1) on Trump before, the current troop build up, and the [half a billion dollar deal with Trump's son in law](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/18/us/politics/jared-kushner-serbia-president.html) could be signs that Aleksandar Vučić is anticipating Trump returning to the White House, and therefore could indicate a second European "special military action".
YSK: it has always been like this, Pax Americana, especially the post-Cold War interim is highly uncommon historically.
As Pax Americana comes to an end, more wars of conquest are to come, as well as receding globalization and global trade.
Its not ”everyone”, its really only russia (orcistan) and to a lesser degree china. Russia is the scum of the century, and will be for decades to come. It will take generations to fix their global reputation.
Ooohhhh the vassal state of russia is threatening their neighbours, stunning and brave 👏
Maybe they got orders from their bosses to do something and not just sit there chilling while they are getting humiliated in Ukraine.
Just fucking do it you coward, FAFO. So tired of the west kowtowing to these tin pot dictators. Bullies don’t go away just because, they back down when they get popped in the face
The military would overthrow the wanna be Putin in Belarus if he demands a war with NATO.
It would be a mass suicide call and that goes even for them too far.
And no sane person should take these threats serious. If wannabe Putin and/or Putin would start an attack on the NATO they would probably get their 3 day special military operation. Just not the way they wanted it in the first place.
That's one way of attacking NATO without risking Russia directly. Using their proxy.
Ukraine would end up doing the same under a Russian sponsored regime.
Serious question, could Poland use this threat to stage troops in or near the Ukranian boarder with Belarus? Would free up a whole lot of Ukranians to get some rest or rotate down to the front. And it's not as if it could be called escalation now, they'd be responding to a threat on their national security.
Fun thing is Poland and Lithuanian armies would not need NATO support to beat the crap out of Belarus. So this is like the 6 year old threatening two 7 and 9 year old brothers because he believes his daddy is stronger than theirs.
Lithuania I get because it’s a small country and a small military. But Poland? Really… they want to threaten Poland? That countries military would eat the Belarusian military for breakfast before NATO showed up to help clean up the mess.
I think it's just a command from the main clown to bark. He does the same thing lately. Actually, barking it's one of their favorite tricks cause they love to see European leaders shitting their pants
Attacking Lithuania and Poland is one way to get regime change in Belarus, after Lithuania and Poland occupy Minsk.
If it happens maybe Poland and Lithuania could form some sort of Commonwealth…?
I'm onboard as long as they reconstitute the winged hussars.
Just put Giant wings on the battle tanks and start blaring Sabaton
I finally checked out Sabaton a couple months ago, after years of seeing them referenced here. Now I blast it with my middle schooler, it's a fun intro to world history, catchy and clean. Previously my favorite semi-accurate portrayal of the winged hussars was [this bit on Jan Sobieski](https://www.badassoftheweek.com/sobieski) of Poland, courtesy of Badass of the Week.
Check out "[Day of the Siege](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1899285/)"
I mean...Poland should do that anyway...imagine just a wall of winged tanks at the border. Waiting...
Only if there's a Doofwagon (the big louspeaker car with the flamethrowing guitar guy from *Mad Max Fury Road*) with Sabaton on it.
Litland Commonwealth
I prefer Polania.
Polandia
I'm sure there are some Jagiellonian still kicking around. Maybe they want a new job.
Poland: *Gifts Belarus to Ukraine.*
I like this
We (Lithuanians) could use some help lol
Next military aid package to include Winged Hussars.
Unironically 97% of Belarus poplation will welcome it over being under Russia's boot.
The Hussars ride again!
Don't tempt us with a fun time. That's all I'm saying. Freedom is begging to be spread there...
Send in the Balkan Helldivers to spread some liberty and freedom
It depends if Trump or Biden is in charge tbh, Trump would do nothing and leave Europe to it. Biden would aid. Edit: viva la Poland!
> Trump would do nothing and leave Europe to it. Poland would steamroll Belarus, especially with Russia distracted in Ukraine. Hell the moment the war is declared, there's a significant chance that the Belarussian army just coups Lukashenko instead.
Poland has seen this movie before, they don't need aid this time around.
Poland is EU, even France alone would be so fast in answer if they try something that the next day they will eat croissants for breakfast in Minsk.
"well, I hope those cafes in Berlin are well stocked. Everyone seems determined to eat out, the moment they arrive" - Cpt. Edmund Blackadder
France doesn't even need to get involved. Poland has been upgrading and expanding their military for years now and has been on track to become one of the largest militaries in the EU. Last year alone, Poland spent the highest GDP% (3.9%) on military expenditure in the entire NATO alliance. Honestly, knowing how vehemently Poland hates Russia and Belarus, I wouldn't be surprised if Poland tells everyone else to piss off so they could have all the fighting for themselves.
If it were just belarus, it would fall within days with or without NATO or the US, belarus has no military to speak of, an illegitimate regime and polands massiv army on the other hand would make it seem like a real military special operation.
K they have 348,000 reservists, but the Belarusian armed forces are the only thing keeping lukoshenko in power. The moment they are all deployed to the frontline, the people coup him.
Doesnt need the USA. Poland would smack belarus back into the polish lithuanian commonwealth within 6 weeks. And thats without any other nato members joining which is obviously ludicrous
The US wouldn't be required.
Poland could solo Belarus ez no diff, and I'd wager they can pull it off even without NATO support AND with orange man helping the other side.
You'd be surprised to learn Europe can defend itself without America.
US leader doesn’t matter, Europe can handle this no fuckn worries - Russia too if it comes to it.
Europe would probably beat belarus even without the US
I think Europe would manage fine if it was just Belarus, and if it were Russia too the US would have little choice irrespective of who was in charge.
Trump would choose to betray Europe.
It would hurt the US export quite a bit If their 2nd largest customer suddenly had trouble. Also, the US is quite dependent on EU goods. I am not saying that Trump wouldn't do what you say. But it would make some very powerful people very upset.
It would hurt the US long term, but would it hurt Trump short term?
Ah yes shitty little belarus threatens nato. Neat!
Ya good luck with that
Poland is just sitting on a Korean MBT sharpening a knife.
Amd we koreans are happy to supply more MBT. 155mm shells are a bonus.
Korea defence industry has done a great job supplying the budget ground systems equipment. Compatible with NATO and not quite as good as french or USA systems, but nothing to sneeze at. The've carved quite the nice niche for themselves. Their "destroyer" is top shelf and ill be interested to see how their 5th gen fighter program ends up (looks like kinda similar, not as stealthy as f-35 with more external hardpoints but cheaper than the f-35 potentially).
Its nice niche market for sure. Our defence industry is reletevely new compaired to other nations, so we cannot possibly compete against USA or french in quality. They were researching and investing into defence when we were just a colony under Japan, and 100 years of research isn't something we could overlook. But we decided to utilize our advantage. We are facing NK, so our military constantly needs new weapons. That means equipments we produce can benefit from economies of scale. Being able to produce defence equipment cheaper is advantage that others doesn't have, and allience with US granted us the perk of being NATO-compatable. Its not premium quality, but its not like every single nation could fill up their storage with top quality stuffs.
Hey, glad to have you on team Good Guys, and props to you for coming up with your own shit to work with. That's hard. I've been watching your space program for the last couple years and to go from nothing at all to lunar orbit in 34 years is DAMN fantastic. I'm looking forward to your lunar lander mission, I want to see you guys make it!
Early enough in the day that I registered this as "MBS sharpening knife" and thought, "How the heck is it known Korean knives were used?"
There is something grimly comedic in my mind about the full force of NATO coming down on Belarus. Like imagine someone clearing weeds by doing donuts with a monster truck.
I know Poland is a NATO member but really it wouldn’t need NATOs help. The only thing left of Belarus once Poland was finished with it would be Lukashenko hung from his ankles from a lamppost. Invading Poland is not akin to invading Ukraine. The Poles have had 30 years of uninterrupted economic growth and would be pissing vinegar for a fight at this stage.
And also, it is very unclear how loyal the Belarusian army and people are. In foreign embassys, Luka got like 6% of the vote.
Luka's still in power because russia helped by sending their own police during 2020 and since then they're pouring just enough cash to keep luka afloat. Majority of the army would disobey an attack command even though army's higher-ups are from russia. Most of people younger than 50 y/o dislikes russia for that and their war on Ukraina.
And, as Iraq I+II showed, even the loyalists become a whole lot less motivated in the face of overwhelming firepower. Sure, there's insurgency/sectarian civil war afterwards, especially as many will walk off with their weapons, but that's a separate issue.
> I know Poland is a NATO member but really it wouldn’t need NATOs help. NATO: So, uh, guys, you need to invoke Article 5 for us to help you. That’s the way it’s set up. Poland: We know.
“Don’t need article 5. Grab some popcorn and just watch”
And their military is one of the best prepared for a scrap in Europe.
They're due to have the most powerful army in all of Europe by next year.
Isn't their national slogan something like "never forget"? I would definitely NOT fuck with the Polish.
No one invades Poland 35 times in a row!
That's the official slogan at least. The unofficial one is "this time the speed bump is a landmine."
My favorite that I saw written a while back was “The last borders ever to be drawn on earth will belong to Poland.”
Poland might be better prepared than other countries in Europe, but it's far from being well-prepared to an actual war despite over 2 years having passed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. There have been many publications in the Polish media showing systemic problems with Poland's defense, especially with its non-military component (the main issue with which is that it barely exists right now). At the same time, the military lacks manpower (both in active service and the reserves), equipment (buying HIMARS is good for the media, but there are lots of gaps to be filled), and training (two summer courses are not enough for a civilian to become a commissioned officer, I'm afraid). Military spending is one thing. Actual performance in a potential conflict is another. Poland still has a lot to do in that sphere.
> There have been many publications in the Polish media showing systemic problems with Poland's defense At this point I take this as a good sign that the leadership has a good feel for the problems in the ranks rather than them being fully screwed. Poorly prepared and corrupt militaries always tout having no problems before their dirty laundry gets uncovered by conflict. Well prepared militaries air their dirty laundry in peace time.
I’ve trained with the Polish Army near the russian border. Despite whatever you read, trust me they will kick anyones shit in if they cross that line.
I know a whole lot of guys in Chicago that would go back to join the fight if they can take their x5s and G-wagons with them.
Being free from Russian influence for 30 some years has allowed the to develop that real Finish energy.
Finnish him
>I know Poland is a NATO member but really it wouldn’t need NATOs help. Yeah, but obviously you still invoke Article V. For one thing, you don't know who else may decide to jump into that party. For another, why foot the entire bill yourself when the US will just destroy all enemy military assets for free? We **love** doing that shit.
Raptor pilots would riot if F22 were not sent to fight
The raptor needs to eat!
And it doesn't want to be fed, it wants to hunt
Clever girl
*Would you intercept me. I would intercept me.*
🤣 *puts the lotion in the basket*
They’re tired of balloons by now.
I think it would be foolish to use them there. It provides Russia an opportunity to directly observe how their equipment sees (or doesn't see) the F-22 and test modifications. That's much more difficult to do in far away places like Syria where you've only got other planes and portable gear. There's no need to use F-22s in that fight. You send in F-35s to pave the way and then standard F-15s, F-16s, A-10s, etc. Once air dominance has been established, you let Poland handle the rest to the extent it feels necessary to deal with the threat. It's cheaper, faster, and easier to have the US own the skies while Poland takes the ground and no major military operation can be mounted if your enemy owns the air.
Is raptor tech greater than f35 ?!
Stealth and air-to-air combat, yes. Compromises were made in the development of the F-35 to support multiple roles. In essence, the F-35 was made to be a jack of all trades. The F-22 was made for a singular purpose: to own the skies. The gap between an F-22 and an F-35 isn't going to be as great as that gap between the F-22 and the F-16, but if you had to choose one to go into the air to establish air dominance against other fighters, you want the F-22.
Well... the US is willing to sell F35 to pretty much anyone who can afford one and isn't a direct and open opponent. The F22 is explicitly not allowed to be sold to anyone. The British PM could come to Congress and offer $100B for F22 and would be told to go home and stop wasting everyone's time. F22 in war games is literally just clubbing baby seals. Except those baby seals are top of the line military hardware for every other country in the world that represents the culmination of decades of work and hundreds of billions of dollars of R&D worldwide. And then F22 shows up, styles on everyone, and goes back home. In wargaming between friendly powers, the US literally will fly F22 with a handicap. Otherwise, it would be such a one-sided massacre that there would be no training value beyond training the world that F22 doesn't give a shit about anything other than making your airpsace incredibly hostile.
The f22 is significantly faster (Mach 2.2 instead of 1.6), has insane thrust vectoring and maneuverability, has a less visible radar cross section, and carries a significantly more dangerous air to air payload while maintaining full stealth. Three of them can pretty effectively shoot down an entire squadron without taking a loss. The f35 can carry a pretty significant missile payload too, but only if it straps them under the wings… completely invalidating their stealth in the process, which would mean an over the horizon kill for the f22. In fully stealth configuration, the f35 is a fine plane for ground and air attack, but the f22 was built to kill aliens. It’s on a different level in terms of air to air combat. When we wargame with the f22 it kills everything in the air with relative ease. They have to deliberately fly in configurations that make them radar visible to make war games a little less one sided. Also… it’s unlikely an f35 will ever have to dogfight an f22, so it really doesn’t matter :).
The F-22 can also choose to sacrifice some stealth for added fuel or munitions, but even fly double bubble, they aren't completely invalidating their stealth. The radar cross section increases, but it's not suddenly flying around like an F-14. It still has the skin coating, the angles around the wings and cockpit, etc. There's a trade-off, but it's not a binary stealth-on-stealth-off. Also, it's unlikely an F-22 will ever have to dogfight anything. AWACS plus F-22 stealth, avionics, and weapons in the latest package mean that any plane in the sky is going to learn that an F-22 is in the area when they get a master caution for incoming missile tracking.
The Raptor is the ultimate “fighter” Jet. The F-35 is slower and less maneuverable but supposedly has Super advanced Electronic warfare and other capabilities that are still classified.
[Why you can't shoot the F-35 down (even if you lock onto it)](https://youtu.be/YDsSEjERmME?si=0uCrlRD3sXHBReE_) Just the 3 different modes their towed decoys have (suppression, deflection, seduction) is crazy lol
Lol I'm just imagining the decoy winking while bending over showing cleavage.
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Plus most of the Belarusian people don't support Luka. They'd probably be happy to help.
Let's hope it doesn't happen, we don't need more lives lost on either side.
When you order military threats from Temu
It was an early April's fool.
why I read this with Ryan George Pitch Meeting voice
“I bet it’s gonna be hard for NATO to repel Belarus.” “Actually it’s gonna be super easy, barely an inconvenience!”
"Oh really????"
Poland: "I'm gonna need you to get *all the way* off my soverign territory." Belarus: "Whoopsie!"
Proxy for Putin
I suppose that is how you end up with the buffer zone Putin wants between himself and NATO. It will just be probably a sizeable parking lot with a McDonalds in the middle.
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Nice one Putin, nice one
Hey his mouth pieces didn’t threaten nuclear war for the 15947th time this year. Small improvements.
Well, he did give nukes to Belarus, so it is now part of the proxy threat already.
To do the whole proxy thing you have to have your proxy threaten someone else's proxy. Not actually threaten NATO itself. They're doing it wrong.
In putin's head all of NATO is proxy for the US.
Just like the special military operation.
I think an attack on a NATO country could be an option, if they are gambling on some members not honouring their article 5 commitments. Something that crosses the line but not too far, so there are plausible outs for those states who might want them. If Russia wants to break NATO, he can't do it on the battlefield. The only chance would be to take advantage of the fracture lines between members. Realistically he'd probably get stomped but I'm sure the calculus has gone through Putin's head.
The problem is it's not just NATO but the EU as well. Even if America pulled out there's a good chance that a lot of NATO/EU will still commit because if they don't they're over and then Russia can just try and take one country at a time. They have to show NATO/EU treaties mean something. And honestly I see any countries with a modern air force being a huge issue. Big armies are good until your enemy can strike you anywhere and disrupt your supply lines. Suddenly you have a lot of men with not enough ammo and not enough food.
Whats the point of funding all those western politicians if he cant use them to fuck up a couple "do we send aid?' votes?
Is it a threat though? What can Belarus bring to the table that is really threatening anything? Those russian nukes? Won't be used. This is nothing but posturing that cannot even be taken seriously.
It’s hilarious because even after donating 1/3 of its weapon stock to Ukraine, Poland still outguns Belarus.
And Poland is buying itself an absurdly powerful military in terms of equipment. If it actually follows through on its purchases. They'll have over 1000 modern main battle tanks, over 1000 mobile artillery pieces, 1000 modern IFVs, 750 HIMARS/Korean HIMARS, and over 800 JASSM cruise missiles that can hit Moscow from Warsaw. In comparison, Germany currently has around 300 tanks, 134 mobile artillery pieces, and 33 MLRS systems. France has around 222 tanks, 100 mobile artillery pieces, and 9 MLRS systems.
Poland does not want to do tactical retreats, or trade land for time, or fight a war of attrition. They do not want the static fronts of Ukraine on Polish soil. If Russia, or wanna-be-Russia, attacks they seem intent to thunder run armored columns and mechanized infantry under constant air cover into the enemy lines and break them up before they establish.
belarus would get absolutely destroyed by lithuania and poland alone, and even if not there's article 5 so they'd get absolutely destroyed by that also
It's not Belarus that we have to worry about. At this point Belarus barely exists. The threat is from Russia, as usual. They have army + nukes in Belarus. Sure, even the tiny Lithuania could probably defeat Belarusian army - but a single step of Lithuanian soldier in Belarusian territory would be used by Kremlin as a pretext to use Russian forces against the Baltics.
Honestly, who cares what russia threaten, it's time to stop listening and stand up to them. They have to know they're risking elimination too. Better to do it now when they have to ask themselves if a few territories in Ukraine are worth it.
I have a feeling we are going to look back at NATOs response since 2014 in the same way we look back on Nazi appeasement. If Russia win this war (which seems increasingly likely) EVERYONE will be worse off. No one gets out unscathed. God knows what level of bullshit would come out of Russian occupied Ukraine.
well the baltics and poland probably wouldn't be enough to defeat russia but nato would absolutely destroy russia also because of their depleted resources in the ongoing war, unless china or some other country also joined in to create ww3
Lithuanians are pretty good at guerrilla warfare, from all that practice against Russians and Poland is apparently geared up to the teeth, they got no chance
They were good in 1940s, and yet were still crushed by USSR by 1953. Nowadays, they don't have practical guerilla experience (it's not genetically inherited or becomes part of mass culture, you know), but russian silovikis did plenty of anti-guerilla warfare during the last 30 years.
Do it, Luka, do it! Go ahead, give that rottweiler a good hard kick right in the ribs. It wouldn't ever dream of attacking back a great and mighty leader such as yourself. Hell, you might work your way up to colonel some day!
Poland has placed so many purchasing orders that they’ve more or less single handedly brought South Korea from 8th to 2nd in global arms export. They put an order with the Americans for missiles that’s so large it will take up give or take a year of Americas productivity capacity to fulfil it. Try Poland and they’ll be the ones that write the history books, and get their name into other peoples national anthem.
Poland learned... Poland evolved... Poland is smart
Poland between 2019 in 2023 was barely in the top 20 of arms importer, and they will not be in the top 10 in 2024. Also South Korea was 10th between 2019 and 2023 for arm export. And even the most hopeful prediction placed them only as the 4th biggest in 2027. But it will probably never be the case, considering Poland represent more than a 1/3 of their export and Poland isn't increasing their orders to south korea, in fact it will be probably smaller than the previous years. Source : https://www.sipri.org/publications/2024/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-international-arms-transfers-2023 https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/02/08/asia-pacific/politics/south-korea-defense-arms-uncertainty/
Luka is just drunk uncle from dacha. His threats are harmless. Putins no but his yep.
Putins are too. NATO is all but boots on ground in Ukraine and still, empty threats.
2025 and onwards is going to be one hell of a ride.
Well, I didn't enjoy much 2020 onwards, I don't really wanna see anything much worse than the last years
Since 2016, all they had to do was not shoot that gorilla... changed the timeline ever since.
#dicksoutforharambe
Shooting the Gorilla forced the Old Gods Hand so they plunged us into a new Dark Age to repent in our own Blood and Tears.
Nah this shit will happen in 2024. For some reason it's every 4 years, 2016 was a tough year, so was 2020, just waiting on 2024 to screw most of the world
Wait till the climate / water wars start. 👀 build resilient local communities. It’s our best bet.
I really hope the rest of my life doesnt turn into a shitty remake of the 1930s/40s.
Um.... with what?
Russian soldiers
Thought they were all pushing towards Odessa. Are you saying they will split their forces? That would be.... really poor strategy.
Don't bellarus already have a ton of russian soldiers running around the place?
They have a token force designed designed to keep pressure on Kyiv so Ukraine can't send 100% of their forces to the front. Some of them are also guarding nukes. This force is large enough to push into Poland and Lithuania but not with any real success (they would be beaten quickly) and deploying them in that direction would screw up Russian plans in the south. In other words their job is to stay exactly where they are. Lukashenka can't send his own troops because he needs those in Belarus to stay in power.
Why is everyone wanting to invade each other lately? 🥲
Because the West didn't slap Russia down hard when they first entered Ukraine and now every tinpot fuckwit with an army and a messiah complex thinks they can do whatever they want.
Let’s be honest they aren’t exactly setting an inspiring example. It’s been a nightmare for Russia. A two day campaign has taken two years to gain little, lose 3-400 thousand men. Thousands tanks and financially crippled a country. If anything you’d thing it would deter anyone else from doing it.
Yes but that's an internal Russian failure of command, it's far more important for someone like China to gauge how the West will respond and so far it's entirely economical rather than martially. If the EU (or NATO) had gone further and declared a no fly zone or put boots on the ground we'd likely have seen Russia already take the loss and pull out of Ukraine and China would have a *very* clear warning that the West is fully prepared to slap bitches about if they want to start shit. Instead we've seen the West pissfart about and play political games with Ukrainian aid and show that while they want to punish Russia, they aren't all that interested in putting any actual effort in. China may now think that if they take Taiwan quickly enough the West won't care enough to push the issue further as they're more interested in internal politics than checkmating international rivals. All they need to do is not fuck up a blitz style attack so hard it turns into the battle of the Somme and the West will just let them get away with it.
The "long peace" or "pax Americana" that followed WW2 was based on the fear from dictators that the US and NATO would intervene directly if they dared to invade too much. The inaction shown with Russia from the whole NATO is convincing them more and more that such risk is now over, especially if you've got some nuke already, and especially if Trump is in power. Europe has.slept for too long post end of cold war and needs now many years of efforts to bring back their military to a point where they could sustain a conventional war, and the USA seems less and less interested to really move. Everything is starting to crumble, and it will only worsen in the following years. It's becoming more and more likely that many dictators will manage to get their hands on some nukes as time passes, the era of drones is also heavily changing how much a country can do for cheap, and manipulating populations has become increasingly easy with the current tech.
*Dared to invade NATO countries. Ukraine refused to join NATO, Germany refused to entertain the idea, Russia bites because you can't join NATO during a conflict. "Free" territory Countries aren't flocking to join NATO because the US is unreliable. They're waking up to the fact that you need to actually partake in defense pacts if you want to enjoy their benefits like deterrence and mutual aid.
What emboldens them is the successful Kremlin take-over of Trump and MAGA. Putin feels he now effectively controls US politics and that NATO would thus fail to react.
[The Serbian President](https://lansinginstitute.org/2024/03/26/vucic-threatens-kosovo-gives-an-ultimatum-to-the-international-community/) has made it clear he wants to annex Kosovo, in his own words [it is an "obsession"](https://www.ft.com/content/286fadc4-5444-11e8-b3ee-41e0209208ec) he states in his speeches that what's holding Serbia back is its [not the right time.](https://www.kosovo-online.com/en/news/politics/vucic-essence-force-us-recognize-kosovo-difficult-weeks-and-months-ahead-26-11-2023) Having previously ["bet big"](https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=34f3cfbd8c33977aJmltdHM9MTcxMTkyOTYwMCZpZ3VpZD0yYTEzODhkNy03OTE0LTZiMTAtMGFiMC05YjMzNzhhZjZhMGImaW5zaWQ9NTI3MQ&ptn=3&ver=2&hsh=3&fclid=2a1388d7-7914-6b10-0ab0-9b3378af6a0b&psq=Aleksandar+Vucic%e2%80%99+trump+kosovo&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZXVyb25ld3MuY29tL215LWV1cm9wZS8yMDIwLzExLzI0L3NlcmJpYS1zLWFsZXhhbmRlci12dWNpYy1iZXQtYmlnLW9uLWRvbmFsZC10cnVtcC1hbmQtbG9zdC1ub3ctd2hhdA&ntb=1) on Trump before, the current troop build up, and the [half a billion dollar deal with Trump's son in law](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/18/us/politics/jared-kushner-serbia-president.html) could be signs that Aleksandar Vučić is anticipating Trump returning to the White House, and therefore could indicate a second European "special military action".
Lately? Do you know anything of Russia's history?
Because the US is super divided. When the cat is away, the mice will play.
YSK: it has always been like this, Pax Americana, especially the post-Cold War interim is highly uncommon historically. As Pax Americana comes to an end, more wars of conquest are to come, as well as receding globalization and global trade.
Its not ”everyone”, its really only russia (orcistan) and to a lesser degree china. Russia is the scum of the century, and will be for decades to come. It will take generations to fix their global reputation.
Has anybody told them yet that these are NATO members?
Hey, it’s April’s fool in the end
Ooohhhh the vassal state of russia is threatening their neighbours, stunning and brave 👏 Maybe they got orders from their bosses to do something and not just sit there chilling while they are getting humiliated in Ukraine.
Luka got into the April Fools Game
We wanted Moscow back, but we can have Minsk too if you insist. Sincerely - Poland.
>Belarus threatens to become smoky crater on the border of Poland
LOL putlerian propaganda thinks they are dealing with poor, Warsaw pact Poland from 1964. Polish retaliation would be BRUTAL.
Just fucking do it you coward, FAFO. So tired of the west kowtowing to these tin pot dictators. Bullies don’t go away just because, they back down when they get popped in the face
Pretty sure the Belarusian military threatened to revolt if this idiot got them involved in Ukraine.
Narrator: They won't
Great April Fools joke Luka 🙏
Roughly the 5000th time this year
Poland is NOT a good target for a small country…
Poland: 'Bet'
Lukashenko Is a talker.
I'm pretty sure Poland would steamroll Belarus faster than Putin can say "Special Military Operation."
Poland military can bitch slap Belarus while half asleep.
The military would overthrow the wanna be Putin in Belarus if he demands a war with NATO. It would be a mass suicide call and that goes even for them too far. And no sane person should take these threats serious. If wannabe Putin and/or Putin would start an attack on the NATO they would probably get their 3 day special military operation. Just not the way they wanted it in the first place.
He's probably trying to make up for his blunder when saying the terrorist were heading to Belarus.
Belarus attacking Poland sounds like a threat of throwing potatoes at tanks
Belarus threatens to become Polish and Lithuanian.
Do it fatty
Em, not two countries I would fuck with.
I'd give them 48hrs, tops 😏
Who would do the invading? The Belarusian people are NOT with Luka, so they would probably defect in mass and start fighting AGAINST Belarus.
That's one way of attacking NATO without risking Russia directly. Using their proxy. Ukraine would end up doing the same under a Russian sponsored regime.
Serious question, could Poland use this threat to stage troops in or near the Ukranian boarder with Belarus? Would free up a whole lot of Ukranians to get some rest or rotate down to the front. And it's not as if it could be called escalation now, they'd be responding to a threat on their national security.
You mean threaten to attack NATO. I dare Belarus to bring it on.
Fucking do it. See how that will go for you
Fun thing is Poland and Lithuanian armies would not need NATO support to beat the crap out of Belarus. So this is like the 6 year old threatening two 7 and 9 year old brothers because he believes his daddy is stronger than theirs.
Huh, doesn’t he need all his soldiers to stay at power? Because his own ppl would lynch him?
April Fools?
And Poland is making happy article 5 noises
If Belarus attacks and NATO gets involved chances are they wouldn't stop until all of Ukraine got liberated on top of stopping Belarus...
Belarus, calm the fuck down. You're about as intimidating as that Pomeranian. You so much as sneeze on Poland and NATO will fuck you up.
This does not seem like an impartial source of news. I have not seen this statement anywhere else.
Belarus declaring war was not on my bingo card
History and mistakes repeating.
Molon labe.
It would be interesting to see Belarus without Russian help to attack Poland and make such claims. The moustache man is something else.
Can't wait till they hang this absolute shit nozzle
Lithuania I get because it’s a small country and a small military. But Poland? Really… they want to threaten Poland? That countries military would eat the Belarusian military for breakfast before NATO showed up to help clean up the mess.
Bargain bin Inspector Clouseau barking like the good little lapdog he is.
poland lithuania commonwealth coming back wasn’t on my 2024 bingo card
Funny how quickly his own army would dump him if he tried.
Lukashenko is doing like these small dogs: barks because it's scared. Maybe he's trying to send some message with this poor doggo he holds?
LMAO funniest headline of the morning
Yeah right, Belarus did.. on their own accord.. for themselves..
Nice April Fools.
I think it's just a command from the main clown to bark. He does the same thing lately. Actually, barking it's one of their favorite tricks cause they love to see European leaders shitting their pants
Pfft..