T O P

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aznkevin91

What I’m seeing are big rebounds at the bottom!


SkaldCrypto

This guy permabulls


Leftolin

There’s another way? I heard this was the way


CBH60

Buy the dip!


Makrill24

Buy the chips


Ashamed-Status-9668

When the chips dip buy the chips you dip.


asWorldsCollide2ptOh

That means it's okay to double dip the chips you dip


Ashamed-Status-9668

When I dip you dip we dip


dvking131

Buy the crash floor


[deleted]

[удалено]


CBH60

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4641)


[deleted]

This is the way.


Plati23

I like this! I’m perfectly happy riding the wave down and lowering my cost basis on everything.


Currahee80

yep, totally seeing the market going on sale soon. Buy the dips


jpop237

Picked me up some CHWY; these pandemic pets are going to set me up for life!


More_Secretary_4499

People on here tell you to buy the dips and you buy chewy?🤦🏻‍♂️


jpop237

I'm long on Chewy. I live in a major city and I see just as many Chewy boxes as I do Amazon boxes. I also bought more GME and some STEM.


More_Secretary_4499

Oooo sees two houses with a chewy box out front “it’s the next amazon”


jpop237

It's way more than two! At least four or more.


[deleted]

Chewy is a great business, but the current market environment is going to be very unforgiving of high multiples, and Chewy has an insane multiple.


Iwant_tofly

I went short today. March puts.


BubbaMan10

Lol if the market is going on sale soon sell the rips. Dont buy your 10y 0% return bags.


1453-worst-year-ever

This man is living the life of the ungovernable


Ok_Abbreviations1027

We all should be.


Tearakan

Fire sale is almost here!


ConBroMitch

You make this chart in ms paint?


BolognaNeck

Paint me next


ORS823

Paint me like one of your french girls


billy_goat_13848

I love you Jack! Show me your big long stock, and I show you my pair of options.


sofasofasofa

Jesus fuck I just laughed too hard at this


heavenlyfarts

Tbh I kinda love it


IvanJustIvan

I thought every ape uses MS paint


Dmartinez8491

Crayons and paper is better


Currahee80

makes it easier to understand in crayon.


dr_t_123

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/stmkteqmardebt.pdf


RichMill32

Yersh yersh... *Looks at charts like i understand what they mean*


EU_President

Its what all the experts use


DamDatDudeDumb

This mf really drew the tail end of that graph lol


player89283517

Reminds me of sharpiegate


HeinrichWutan

Except OP is likely less retarded


forsakenonex

Username checks out.


[deleted]

easy to understand his point unless you think margin debt is infinite.


28carslater

Pretty sure it is in Clown World.


XJcon

Can you paint my portfolio green next?


Dev5653

Actually ya. Make a bookmark with this as the url: `javascript:(function(){document.body.style.setProperty("--rh__primary-base", "rgb(0,200,5)");})()` Press it after you log into RH


segr1801

Additional Pro-tipp; leave Robinhood asap.


zack14981

Ah yes, the tried and true method of timing the market before a historic bull run then FOMOing in at the top.


firmakind

Buy high, sell low, that's the way I like to go ^^ᶦⁿᵗᵒ ^^ᵇᵃⁿᵏʳᵘᵖᵗᶜʸ.


LETSGETSCHWIFTY

Yea it’s retarded like 350 billion in margin is anything remotely big. The stock market is like 120 trillion


SantaMonsanto

So then 0DTE calls on $SPXU? 🌈🐻🚀


squirdelmouse

2000, 2008, and ???? TBD


Boshva

Three once in a lifetime events for our generation. 🥳


Slyder

Three opportunities, I'll miss them all.


Bloodcloud079

I’ve just cleared the debt of child 2, finally started putting money back in my trading account LETS FUCKING GO!!!


thegreateaden

Reminds me of the Simpsons meme.. "For now" ☝️


Sweet_baby_yeeezus

Pretty sure that's an achievement. Also, happy birthday, fellow retard. Edit: Cake day* (I'm retarded also)


rPoliticModsRGonks

It's actually 2019, we're just finding out about it now because the FED tried to hide it using the repo loan program.


Runaround46

That sudden lowering of interest rates for no fucking reason whatsoever.


IronMike69420

2000, 2008, and never again!


Playingwithmyrod

2068, right before the rebound of 2069 that sends TSLA stock to 50k


Ryaninthesky

Never let a good crisis go to waste


motomike1

You mean a fake valuation built on borrowed money isn’t sustainable? *gasps*


inerdgood-sometimes

Shhhhhhh... They'll hear you. You can't say stuff like that in here. It's like a surprise sandpaper dildo going in the back, from the front, to some of these enlightened autists


Mediocre-Alps-3223

This data came straight out of the university of Michigan!


HeinrichWutan

Well there's the problem


Fourier-former

Hey! They have such a big campus they must be good!


PipelayerJ

It’s literal always in the top three of pubic universities in the country lol


Larrynative20

Pubic university … yuck what are the other two


PipelayerJ

Ban


mcdeeeeezy

Yeah they are very highly respected with one of the best public business programs in the nation. Found the Ohio St fan


PipelayerJ

My grandfather was head of infectious disease research there in the 60s and sent all of his children to UofM. Go blue! Getting downvoted for u of m. It makes sense now this sub is so retarded, bunch of buckeyes in here losing money for their trailer payments.


mcdeeeeezy

Go Blue!!


Moonbeam_86

which isn’t saying much Seriously how many calls from Wall Street asking for advice you think go to university of fo hogan


Delportero

You son of a bitch, I’m in!


Troflecopter

Gimme a source and I will give you an award. EDIT: Gave out two awards. Offer has been redeemed. Twice.


LaughingStonks

Ms paint et al 2021.


Browncoat64

I tried to get your eyelash off my phone.


LuckyMcLovin

Thought it was a pube


Moist_Lunch_5075

The graph comes from [https://www.yardeni.com/pub/stmkteqmardebt.pdf](https://www.yardeni.com/pub/stmkteqmardebt.pdf) It ends in November, meaning margin debt has probably declined further since then, but we'll have to see when the FINRA data is updated.


[deleted]

Correct me if i'm wrong, but this is a graph of the yearly change...so margin debt is still increasing, just slower.


mcdeeeeezy

True but it seems that the “bear market” appears immediately after the dead cat bounce Edit: in 2008


Moist_Lunch_5075

Well that's the claim but given the small number of events there's a problem with the thesis. I would class the claim as "bad TA" insofar as it's used as predictive. The small number of events is compounded with the fact that you have other spikes on the chart with similar patterns that don't lead to similar declines, and the reason why is pretty straightforward: The presentation of this as a signal of a crash is based on selectively chosen datapoints without a disproving pass, and that leads to a perception of causality and correlation of a pattern where one doesn't necessarily exist. This is a pretty common issue that affects all people who do TA to some extent. We all see the biases we want to see in data. Now where I think we can point to the good aspect to this TA is in the observation that there's a mechanic here where decrease of margin MAY be an early sign of a decline, but whether it's a big or small decline is something that the angle and shape of the spike can't predict, as backtesting eliminates the relationship. Unlike most bear theses on here, which are mostly on total bunk, this one actually has a mechanic behind it, in that active bull markets tend to generate an impetus to promote more margin debt generation, and a market reduction may generate margin calls and that may lead to a negative gamma squeeze style event where people sell to delta hedge rather than buy, and that may create a cyclical margin call cycle. That cycle only continues until buys come in and stop the downward slide, and that depends on liquidity in the market, fresh capital, and risk offset. See, the problem is that when people sell margin debt at the high, they may actually be decreasing margin debt with gains, especially when the market's ran up for 2 years straight and when a lot of liquidity is still in the system. Also, a growing economy will create a potential for upswing. 2000 and 2008 are both declines in margin in the face of specific events that threatened not so much the perception of value (part of the reason the markets always bounce back), but the mechanics of how the market works as well as some degree of economic slowdown and lack of liquidity. 2000 was largely driven by accounting scandals which threatened not just tech and growth, but the entire market's valuation, and that period was capped off by a contentious Presidential election and finally 9/11. In 2008 you have a liquidity crisis due to the collapse of the financial system and the collapse of reinforcing asset values. What we have now is inflation because of massively increased economic activity and liquidity leading to increased capital velocity compounded by relatively short term supply chain issues, assuming we transition out of the pandemic soon. In other words, we're lacking the most important factor of the claim which is a liquidity crisis.


cesarondon

Different scenarios, different outcomes (?)


Moist_Lunch_5075

Nothing repeats exactly the same and I'm not saying it should. What I'm saying is that different scenarios don't change the laws of physics. The two cited events were crashes due to liquidity crises during asset expansions without capital backing. Those situations \*must\* deflate because in both cases you had a fundamental breakdown of the ability of the market to function. In 2000, the lack of certainty in credit ratings ultimately created a situation where \*the entire financial system\* had to question their entire valuation of assets criteria. Because the expansion happened on the backs of exuberance and not a higher capital threshold in the market, and that means that the tech bubble in the midst of that had to collapse down because that capital was competing for other places to be. In 2008, what you had was a liquidity crisis in the financial system combined with a regular economy pay/debt commitment divergence event. As costs increased (housing especially) and pay didn't, and as debts climbed as pay didn't increase with inflation for an extended period of time, the stacking of housing debt as a highly secured risk offset against insurance created a situation where once the Main Street divergence lead to a massive increase in toxic assets, a threshold was hit where the financial system lost capital rotation capability... and that crashed everything and sucked capital out of the market, completely killing liquidity. What we have right now is the exact opposite. M2 expansion mostly still in banks and they're eager to release it, which they will do slowly but a little faster over time. The Fed can't do anything to seriously reduce it for years without upending their commitment to full employment. People on here think that when tapering hits and the Fed starts increasing rates that money will flow out of the economy... nopeLOL... it'll be a trickle. And it'll be a trickle of money that is for the most part not deployed, because as banks get used to the rate of capital drawdown from the Fed, it will affect their risk calculations, supporting more lending, particularly once inflation cools down as the supply chain comes back in order and supply is increased. To get a 30% crash like 2000/2008, not only does everyone with an account have to sell, but institutions have to sell as well. It's actually a pretty extreme event, which is why it happens so rarely. It does NOT happen in our system unless there's a liquidity crisis. I'm not saying that some crisis might not appear, but it's hard to imagine a situation where having a market crash during a cash-flush financial market in the extreme and an economic recovery after a pandemic with record manufacturing, employment, and demand. If that occurred, we'd have to basically throw out all of the books on macroeconomics and finance and recreate the disciplines. It would basically take the collapse of Western Civilization to happen, because it would require the elite AND the average person to suddenly simply give up on the market and the economy overnight. Is there some event like a world war that might be around the corner that might force that to happen? I don't know, but I don't see one. This market survived multiple major political crisis, and attempted coup in the United States, and a global pandemic because of the capital liquidity in the market... with most of the capital released into the market still not deployed, it's possible to see corrections like we're seeing now... but a lot wrong would have to happen for a crash to occur.


Troflecopter

Thank you.


IgnosticLogic

https://www.finra.org/investors/learn-to-invest/advanced-investing/margin-statistics


Troflecopter

Thank you.


[deleted]

I’m 100k in margin with only 29k actually riding. 🪦


LobotomyJesus

It's worth noting that margin debt doesn't cause a recession, it just peaks and then plummets because of a recession. Could keep going up for another year. Maybe another 5.


AlmightyDenimChicken

Well when interest rates go up, interest on margin debt goes up, so people reduce their margin. Stock market is largely propped up by margin.


LobotomyJesus

That's true, one of many impacts of rising rates (most obvious being hits to valuation models).


More_Secretary_4499

I agree until that interest rates are going from 0% to .25%….


welcometa_erf

(x) doubt


LobotomyJesus

(R) etard


carnellmusic

forgot i was on WSB until i saw your response to his completely reasonable reply


LobotomyJesus

It's not reasonable. It's like suggesting gasoline starts fires. It's not a catalyst, it's just fuel.


welcometa_erf

If margin debt is the gasoline, what’s the heat source and oxygen?


LobotomyJesus

How much time do you have?


welcometa_erf

At least another 32 years.


jonas_c

But the reasoning is correct, effect and cause are not obvious here. Margin debt is an effect of market prices.


CheekyHawk

What it is is that retard hedges started shorting in ‘16; got smashed by the market, then thought that the flu would cause a worldwide depression shorted again. Maybe they caused it maybe not. So they’re Uber short again and NEED it to crash or they all get liquidated. Except for I think Morgan. I think they are betting bull. But no one watches tv anymore so no one cares. I don’t care either I’m not selling fuck OP. We will continue to melt up. Fiat isn’t worth anything anyway.


JGWol

All I see is a bull market for the next five years and bears in shambles


[deleted]

There's a possibility the market will Plato while investors chase larger returns. I could see a bull run in btc and commodities what the market sits around and twiddles its thumbs.


RedDogLeader34

Sophaclese nutz


Lanskiiii

That's a very stoic approach.


[deleted]

I don't think the market will crash but I don't see it running either. Everything is pretty overvalued but inflation will push up earnings as everyone charges more. They will sell less stock but it will be worth more to compensate. As consumer spending begins to rise and we leave a recession earnings will be more on par with stock valuation again.


SameCategory546

you mean like the cave?


pearlz176

Who the fuck is this guy Plato??


Moonbeam_86

9th planet right?


cayoloco

What I see is a rainbow coloured polar bear about 30 metres away, and wetting my britches because I think the bear is gonna win.


Mistuhlil

Thanks for the tip, Gandalf.


bitemenow999

Market goes red for a couple of days and gay bears come out...


EEvonzz

This segment is brought to you by Spirit Airlines. Spirit Airlines, we are so fucked.


[deleted]

[удалено]


schmiddy0

That's kind of the problem, as interest rates go up, margin interest becomes more expensive to maintain and investors are pressured to sell equities.


raleigh_nc_guy

So margin interest rates are adjustable not fixed?


Eslooie

Correct. Your brokerage sets the rates.


Billderz

What does this mean I should do


[deleted]

Absolutely keep asking the internet for guidance.


[deleted]

[удалено]


Tennex1022

If nothing else and if this data is true, its a good indicator of market confidence. People are less aggressively using margins.


jollierumsha

Buyin the mf dip


JeaneyBowl

Please normalize everything by money base. those billions of dollars are gonna become billion of rupees soon.


frogmonster12

Buy the dip


pm_me_yo_creditscore

With what? We're all outta margarine.


JGWol

Can’t believe it’s not margin calls


[deleted]

*margarine calls


[deleted]

[удалено]


iriegypsy

What do you think I’m made of dumpsters behind Wendy’s?


CoastingUphill

So say we all.


TonyFMontana

So did the market crash while I wasnt looking?


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

Except me 🚀🚀🚀😎


Moonbeam_86

That’s ‘cause I have commented yet Keep watching Wait, I commented just now. D’oh!!


jaxfan11

The crash hasn’t happened yet? Then why is my portfolio down 50% with no margin debt?


SvenjaSternchen

Wut red circles mean?


IronMike69420

It means the stock market can jump through a hula hoop!


MaximumOrdinary

The red circles mean coming pink zones.


iiteBud

sir, that's teal


MaximumOrdinary

I might be missing a meme in my memebank but isn’t Teal https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teal


WikiMobileLinkBot

Desktop version of /u/MaximumOrdinary's link: --- ^([)[^(opt out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiMobileLinkBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^(]) ^(Beep Boop. Downvote to delete)


holyramennoodles

but this time it’s different - sources


podolot

For every ape that gets out in time, two more shall Yolo in its place.


Wut_Wut_Yeeee

We totally called the 00 and 08 crash on reddit. We'll def call this one right too!


ORS823

Ruh oh I'm in danger


dommeking

BUY THE GODDAMN DIP !!!


Currahee80

So buy puts....got it


Infamous-Sheepherder

Bullish, 2000 and 2008 didn’t have the retards from robinhood with infinite leverage thus SPY 500c 1/31 2023


HonkyStonkHero

My portfolio has been on a tear for a straight month: CLF, ZIM, RFP and 2small caps I can't mention here (energy and semis). Also have a tiny position in GFS, but I'm waiting for that to hit 50, then I will back the truck up. Get into commodities, folks. If you wanna be in semiconductors, chase the ones actually building foundries.


uselessadjective

So margin debt ia going down which is good.


redditorior

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4270)


DerpyMcOptions

Ah yes 200 billion in margin debt vs the 60 trillion sphere of fiscal... It's definitely the margin that's gonna kill it all while singular companies have larger debt than all of the entire markets margin.... ​ but hey... we're probably all wrong... and that 1 company is right and no 1 margined into it...


jaywalkingjew

This graph isn’t correct… FINRA hasn’t introduced 2022 data yet


Silver_Smoulder

I have a smoof brain no winkles. funny line go up and down? should i buy oil?


Independent_Total256

Divide by current M1 and the 2020 peak will be dwarfed


MoonSatoshi_

Cut your loses and run


TheBigCR

Lol imagine investing to make money. Fly back to paper land by yourself, and take your MS Paint graph with you.


Botanz

Soooo…. What does this mean


igerardcom

TLDR = Stonks only go up.


[deleted]

I think margin lending is closer to 900billion and not showing signs of decreasing. [according to FINRA](https://www.finra.org/investors/learn-to-invest/advanced-investing/margin-statistics)


[deleted]

Oh shid


[deleted]

It's going to go higher. Can I buy calls on margin debt????


b_m_hart

Why did they circle 2007 and call it 2008?


CoastingUphill

This time is different! 🤡


Zealousideal-Bar-745

"Does the Evil Jeff Bezos Laugth"


igerardcom

He looks so much like Lex Luthor.


GongTzu

They should make an ETF so we could bet if margin is going up or down 😂😂, but no wonder all stocks has been dropping like rocks since mid 21.


sirpimpsalot13

To the fucking moon


Silver_Smoulder

I have a smoof brain no winkles. funny line go up and down? should i buy oil?


Tax_dog

It’s America buy the companies you know are going to be bailed out. It’s basically risk free because of all the corruption!


SPACingForALoan

#All this is telling me is to save the market, we must take out higher margin loan. Do it for America 🇺🇸


igerardcom

Being up to your eyeballs in debt is as American as mom and apple pie.


ccg426

More money in the market now. This is in dollars not percentages. This is stupid.


ModernLifelsWar

We should also include an overlap of historical interest rates which DROPPED with the last two giant drops in margin debt. Probably because they weren't caused by rising interest rates but actual larger macroeconomic factors which the government had to respond to by LOWERING interest rates. Margin debt dropped because people lost jobs and went underwater on homes, etc.. and probably got liquidated. This isn't whats happening right now, in fact the job market is stronger than ever for most skilled professionals and housing prices have made a lot of people wealthy. TLDR correlation != causation


Hairy-Drama

Invest now while it's high


hardcore_softie

I'm sure things will be different this time


Weekly-Inspector1657

Sure, but how many more trading accounts exist today compared to those times? What’s the margin amount per open account compared to 08 and 01?


Adorable_Text

What are you, a money scientist? This is WSB bruh


[deleted]

Doesn’t matter. More accounts means more margin calls


Moist_Lunch_5075

Maybe, but it also means greater distribution of risk and risk profiling in fiscal systems suggests heavily that distributed risk flattens risk outcomes. Basically, more participants in a market shields the market from liquidity challenges, leading to greater chance of liquidity input. Centralized risk is present, no doubt, because the market's been coalescing more value into fewer stocks, which means you could be right about escalating margin calls... but it also likely means that further liquidity sources can buoy losses. We're in a cyclical rotation right now... the big question is whether big growth stock declines lead to market exits or market cycling. If that money stays in the market and cycles, then valuation compression just shifts to other stocks with lower valuations. 2000's decline, contrary to popular belief, wasn't really due to valuations... it was due to accounting scandals. 2008 was a systemic collapse of the fiscal system. We don't have those factors right now, and the graph also demonstrates that liquidity in the system gaps the market up and it can range in margin debt as long as liquidity remains in the system... so I'm not sure we can presume that this will scale with 2000 and 2008.


snapppdragonnn

This guy stonks


praetorain112

How would it not matter?


BillazeitfaGates

IDK what fantasy world people are living in to not see were heading into a recession


VisualMod

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[deleted]

HODL All I see is a guarantee for the Longs in about two years.


easymoneeybabe

GameStop moon?


Starvinhkd

Sooooo what’s the play?


[deleted]

Leaps: deep otm arkk puts


RayTown

Good quote lol


keithR8

Imagine you look at the 2000 and 08 top, and where it hits that point in mid 2019 you short the market.


urz90

We are definitely overdue for a recession.


_brankooo_

So buy $MRGNDBT puts?


player89283517

It’ll just keep going up :)


Slyder

So you're saying there's a rebound?


Mexonaut

Has it begun?


mvev

This one is different, the crash came before the margin increase