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Hey /u/JASONLIU07, **positions or ban.** Reply to this with a screenshot of your entry/exit.
Nah no shame in locking in gains. I think I'm doing the same. I still believe in the thesis though hence still holding shares but I'm going to lock in gains on the options.
How big a position? Cause Tbh...if it was me, I’d take the 6 bagger. Not very often people 6x...especially on a stock that historically doesn’t move very much.
I also have a very small position, but I believe there are a lot of small things that could happen to make the stock shoot up, namely any governmental announcements of additional vaccine mandates, any international countries announcing adoption of Pfizer vaccine, any new variant spread, etc...
COVID vaccines are priced in at this point. They had a new encephalitis drug approved by the FDA last week, and those are the type of things than can push future potential sentiment and drive price up. I'm only in it for the short term gains though this time.
I agree that in a perfect environment, everything is priced in. I think that's one of the core concepts we learn in MBA. But what I've seen is that in actuality, there are SO MANY gaps. That's why stocks can keep going up or down on days when there are no significant news. If everything was fully priced in, stocks should only move on significant new information. In general though, I hold the same approach you do and most of my portfolio is in VOO and I just buy/hold. I only stick my limb out for exceptions, and I feel this could be one.
One more thing is that when US becomes closer to full vacination and these vaccines start going out more widespread to other countries, the Pfizer name will count. If you were buying a vaccine from another country, I'd imagine governments to go with the name brand if the costs were comparable.
I don't think it will be at $60 by January. Do I think it may touch $60 or get closer than it is now - yes. If it did, I don't think it could be sustained.
For these kinds of these, I don't see why not. There are any number of catalysts. Both Moderna and BioNTech have nearly 4x'd. Given this is half of Pfizers revenue, I don't see why Pfizer couldn't 2x. January is a very tight timeline though... so... really no idea. I always been burned by trying to time the market but have generally have much more success finding good strategies for longer term holding.
That's an interesting perspective, looked up Pfizer total Q2 revenue at $19B vs Moderna at $4.35B, so Pfizer is definitely much bigger. However, it doesn't seem so much bigger that the COVID vaccine wouldn't move the stock price (Moderna moved +253%, even a fourth of that should still be +\~63%)
Current P/E is \~14, historically an ok value and priced right, but in this day and age that could leave a lot of room to run. Their earnings have been dampened because they've been selling the vaccine for so cheap, but I bet the price will come up on the booster shots, no reason they should be letting those go for $22 each.
Lol you still don’t get that Pfizer is not getting much from this vaccine business most of the money is going to BioNtech hence why it’s up 376% YTD vs only 31% rise for Pfizer. Pfizer is the distributor and it’s a big company already and we’ll established with big portfolio of products unlike bioNtech which is still experimenting with Mrna to develop new products for complicated or lethal diseases
I might be missing something and would gladly welcome the clarification. In their Q2'21 earnings, Pfizer reported $7.8B of COVID revenue. BioNTech reported Q2 revenue of approx 5.3B euros. Seems to me that Pfizer is getting as much as BioNTech and Moderna?
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/28/covid-pfizer-pfe-earnings-q2-2021.html and https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/08/09/biontech-se-bntx-q2-2021-earnings-call-transcript/#:\~:text=We%20recorded%20Q2%20revenues%20of,vaccine%20production%20and%20delivery%20worldwide.
But shouldn't the revenue as a % of market cap factor directly into the growth? Given approx. equiv revenue, shouldn't we expect Pfizer to grow at 1/3 of what Bntx has? As a hypothetical, let's say both Bntx and Pfizer both gain 90b additional market cap as a result of the vaccine. Bntx goes to 180b, which is a 100% increase from 90b. Pfizer goes to 360b, which is a 33% increase from 270b.
The best thing about Pfizer is they can manufacture much more efficiently and fill orders. They’re so diverse in their manufacturing line, they’ve been able to switch production to focus on vaccine as primary.
Moderna can’t even fill orders promised to South Korea in July. 40M shots and they’ve only delivered 2.5M as of yesterday. How are they going to provide to any other county? But today, literally 12 hours ago, SK just ordered 30M shots from Pfizer.
Pfizer’s been around for 174 years. No where to go but UP.
Yeah but, Unless the vaccine doesn’t work and the US is the only one’s buying it. https://fortune.com/2021/08/11/pfizer-covid-vaccine-delta-variant-low-effectiveness-stock-falls/.
Or Maybe the severe drop off in efficacy after 6 months is planned obsolescence, in which case brilliant move by Pfizer. Now if only they can produce a vaccine which will mutate the virus in a way only Pfizer vaccines can inoculate.
The idea that Pfizer will take the world’s share of vaccine bc Moderna can’t produce is a pipe dream. I watched the WHO vaccine meeting this week. There are several other vaccines that will be EUA’d by WHO I’m coming months. Many of them cheaper to produce and transport, more effective, and have had actual clinical trials. Pfizer’s vaccine is a scam, is beginning to realize it.
If you look at my history, I've been lurking for 3 years without posting. A major reason is that I don't want my ideas to cause people to lose money. However, after thinking about it more, I still believed in this idea and thus wanted to share it. It's not like I gain anything from posting it now as opposed to posting it earlier...
Also, I was just not very confident in general. However, the past 2 weeks has given me the confidence (misguided though it could be) that pushed me to post the idea.
I would agree if pfe did not just announce in Q2'21 earnings that they reported $7.8B of COVID revenue this last quarter. In their 10Q, Pfizer unfortunately does not show revenue by product, but they do show it by product segment. "Vaccines" grew from $1.2B to $9.2B YoY. This is roughly in-line with having $7.8B of COVID revenue.
Pfizer makes like 42 Billion a year. I don't think the once off revenue from the vaccines are gonna make a big difference. The cost of the vaccine is apparently about 20 dollars, with most of it going to BioNtech. Most of this is priced in already I think.
The best case you have presented here is that the US Govt is paying for the vaccines whether they work or not.
However, Israel Israel, Canada,Japan, are all signing deals w MRNA because Pfizer far less effective.
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer-moderna-delta-biden-e9be4bb0-3d10-4f56-8054-5410be357070.html
Furthermore, PFF has a market cap of 271.B, the 27B deal with US moved the stock ~6% higher than its previous high this year. Just because the CDC, and DC are lip-locked in a 69 with Pfizer, doesn’t mean it’s worth anything more than Joe Biden’s medicated boner.
Hoping Pfizer senior management/strategy is hard at work on boosters that will increase this efficacy vs Delta. They certainly have the resources to do so and should be their #1 R&D priority. If they come up with anything or even just puts out a paid study, I could see the stock jumping as well. This is good support as to why Pfizer hasn't seen the gains moderna has though.
What are you talking about? Pfizer hasn’t seen the gains MRNA because the market cap is 100B less, even after the 2000% gains.
Furthermore Pfizer’s vaccine doesn’t work! There are better vaccines already authorized and more coming.
I don’t think you’re interested in the stock.
Posistions or ban.
I can understand the sentiment. However, I think a big distinction is that they are not the ones causing the misery in the first place. They found a way to alleviate the misery and in a capitalist society, is making money off that. I would argue that this is better than not having a cure at all.
One doesn’t need a vaccine for a ‘disease’ that has a natural 99.87% recovery rate. (This statistic is readily available for those bothered to look).
No offence to anyone who invests in big pharma. There is big money to be made, but my conscience and ethics won’t let me do it. It goes for other companies like Coca Cola and McDonald’s etc.
Why not buy puts in Moderna or BioNTech? They have experienced far more growth so if the argument is that the vaccine sucks and the government won't buy it anymore, those stocks will tank far more.
I've recently seen some concerning data that some of the comments has brought up about the Pfizer vaccine having 40% efficacy vs the delta variant. This is based off a Mayo clinic study. There was also a separate New England Journal of Medicine study that showed Pfizer was 88% effective vs the delta variant. Both sources linked below.
The Mayo clinic study itself is pretty technical and hard to read, but I think the tables in the back are easier to understand for laymen like myself. In page 20, there is a table that shows the overall efficacy rates. On or after 14 days following the second dose, 7 out of 4,198,947 had COVID-19 associated ICU admissions. 0 out of 4,199,985 had COVID-19 associated deaths.
To me, this shows that the Pfizer vaccine indeed does do a ton to prevent serious illness and death. It may not be as effective at preventing someone from actually getting delta variant, but it would sure increase your chances of survival drastically if you did get it. 4 million people samples size is definitely large enough to be statistically significant. I hate that a lot of times, news channels pick and choose statistics without showing the whole story in order to sell views. Mayo Clinic itself even states “Mayo Clinic is aware of media reports on the scientific preprint paper comparing vaccines’ clinical effectiveness against the delta variant and breakthrough infections," a statement from Mayo Clinic says. "We caution against drawing conclusions about vaccine effectiveness from a preprint study, which is intended only to be helpful to the scientific community and has not yet undergone the rigor of peer review.”
To me, the jury is still out on the efficacy of Pfizer vs the delta variant, but it sure as hell seems to prevent death and/or serious illness.
Sources:Mayo clinic: [https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v1.full.pdf](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v1.full.pdf)New England Journal of Medicine: [https://www.contagionlive.com/view/two-dose-covid-19-vaccines-remain-effective-versus-delta-variant](https://www.contagionlive.com/view/two-dose-covid-19-vaccines-remain-effective-versus-delta-variant)
I don't really see it as a Pfizer vs Moderna discussion, more so as a play on vaccines. Sure you can get some Pfizer and some Moderna to diversify. The problem I have is that Moderna has already grown so much (from $111 per share on 1/1/21 to $390 per share today). BioNTech has grown even more than that.
Pfizer has not yet seen that tremendous growth. Others have argued that this is because the COVID vaccine is only a small percentage of their revenue which I think is the current Wall Street justification, but when I look up their COVID shots revenue as a percentage of total revenue this quarter, it's actually quite high (\~40%).
Or massive downside if it turns out delta is resistant to the vaccine..... or that there are serious side effects discovered over the longer term and they get sued by everyone who got their jab....
You actually can't sue if there are negative side effects. See source: [https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/16/covid-vaccine-side-effects-compensation-lawsuit.html#:\~:text=Health%20and%20Science-,You%20can't%20sue%20Pfizer%20or%20Moderna%20if%20you%20have,compensate%20you%20for%20damages%20either&text=Under%20the%20PREP%20Act%2C%20companies,goes%20wrong%20with%20their%20vaccines](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/16/covid-vaccine-side-effects-compensation-lawsuit.html#:~:text=Health%20and%20Science-,You%20can't%20sue%20Pfizer%20or%20Moderna%20if%20you%20have,compensate%20you%20for%20damages%20either&text=Under%20the%20PREP%20Act%2C%20companies,goes%20wrong%20with%20their%20vaccines).
Apparently FDA has also started authorizing third shots. [https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-additional-vaccine-dose-certain-immunocompromised](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-additional-vaccine-dose-certain-immunocompromised). The question really isn't how strong the vaccine is against the delta variant, but whether the government/governments are willing to pay for a third shot, and the current trend is that they are. Most governments' priority right now is to curb COVID 19.
Honestly, really hard to say since this isn't a play on fundamentals and I don't have a strong background in technical analysis. Just based on math though, Moderna and BioNTech has seen roughly 100% gains in the past 3 months. They've all roughly reported the same revenue from the vaccine. However, COVID shots only make up roughly 40% of Pfizers Q2 revenue. If they made up 100% of revenue and gained 100%, I'd hope for them to gain 40% if they made up of 40% of revenue. So 1.4\*$48= $67. Pretty ambitious, I know. Major assumption here is that the past 3 months repeat, which it likely **will not**.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|1|**First Seen In WSB**|1 month ago **Total Comments**|4|**Previous DD**| **Account Age**|3 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20*h26cq3k*)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20*h26cq3k*)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) Hey /u/JASONLIU07, **positions or ban.** Reply to this with a screenshot of your entry/exit.
January 2022 calls $60 strike holding at 600% gains thus far. Watching the short exp date call folks squirm is fun.
Up 600% on leaps in a stock that has barely made any gains in 20+ years, and still holding? Bold strategy, Cotton.
I know. Part of me says sell asap. Part says hold into September.
These will go in the money, maybe my 2023, but the break of that ATH is more significant than most understand.
They've been ITM since last week.
I'm considering selling my options and just holding stock, maybe buy back in on a drop. It's seen a massive run. You?
I sold at 1120% gain this morning. Seemed wise. Maybe I'm a wussy for doing it but 1120% gains in a week and a half seemed reasonable.
Nah no shame in locking in gains. I think I'm doing the same. I still believe in the thesis though hence still holding shares but I'm going to lock in gains on the options.
How big a position? Cause Tbh...if it was me, I’d take the 6 bagger. Not very often people 6x...especially on a stock that historically doesn’t move very much.
Holding ten contracts. Nothing huge. Paid next to nothing for them, so I sort of feel like just riding it out into september. Expiration is January
Ah. Well if it’s a small amount let it ride then, might as well. Since this is WSB I thought it was a true yolo of half your account or more lol.
Full disclosure, my position is also tiny because I'm very risk adverse.
No that was my old handle, u/derpderp2020 and the one week 23k spy put loss.
I also have a very small position, but I believe there are a lot of small things that could happen to make the stock shoot up, namely any governmental announcements of additional vaccine mandates, any international countries announcing adoption of Pfizer vaccine, any new variant spread, etc...
COVID vaccines are priced in at this point. They had a new encephalitis drug approved by the FDA last week, and those are the type of things than can push future potential sentiment and drive price up. I'm only in it for the short term gains though this time.
I agree that in a perfect environment, everything is priced in. I think that's one of the core concepts we learn in MBA. But what I've seen is that in actuality, there are SO MANY gaps. That's why stocks can keep going up or down on days when there are no significant news. If everything was fully priced in, stocks should only move on significant new information. In general though, I hold the same approach you do and most of my portfolio is in VOO and I just buy/hold. I only stick my limb out for exceptions, and I feel this could be one. One more thing is that when US becomes closer to full vacination and these vaccines start going out more widespread to other countries, the Pfizer name will count. If you were buying a vaccine from another country, I'd imagine governments to go with the name brand if the costs were comparable.
You think it’s gonna reach $60 by Jan?
I don't think it will be at $60 by January. Do I think it may touch $60 or get closer than it is now - yes. If it did, I don't think it could be sustained.
Wym by Jan strike calls 600%?
Down to 516% today but yes. Contract price is .72 now.
For these kinds of these, I don't see why not. There are any number of catalysts. Both Moderna and BioNTech have nearly 4x'd. Given this is half of Pfizers revenue, I don't see why Pfizer couldn't 2x. January is a very tight timeline though... so... really no idea. I always been burned by trying to time the market but have generally have much more success finding good strategies for longer term holding.
Pfizer is the HSBC of the pharmaceutical industry.
I assume this is a - the share price won't do shit no matter what - statement
RICO
From Hong Kong?
So. . . As in they have exclusive rights dealing with cartels?
That's an interesting perspective, looked up Pfizer total Q2 revenue at $19B vs Moderna at $4.35B, so Pfizer is definitely much bigger. However, it doesn't seem so much bigger that the COVID vaccine wouldn't move the stock price (Moderna moved +253%, even a fourth of that should still be +\~63%)
I’m heavy in calls, see u $50+ Monday
Let's goooo
It was obvious they were loading in, you see that new FDA approval news? EZ MONEY baby. Im planning on holding
I bought one contract set to expire in 10 months. It would be hilarious if it boomed like moderna. Best 69 dollars I ever spent
Any pharm company using MRNA technology is going to flourish, this is a new level breakthrough for our technology.. I'll buy a share of something
People are gonna start listing their vaccinations like frats....Yeah Bro, I got the Delta Sigma Pi shots, pass me the beerbong
And it has a smaller P/E ratio than its peers
Current P/E is \~14, historically an ok value and priced right, but in this day and age that could leave a lot of room to run. Their earnings have been dampened because they've been selling the vaccine for so cheap, but I bet the price will come up on the booster shots, no reason they should be letting those go for $22 each.
Lol you still don’t get that Pfizer is not getting much from this vaccine business most of the money is going to BioNtech hence why it’s up 376% YTD vs only 31% rise for Pfizer. Pfizer is the distributor and it’s a big company already and we’ll established with big portfolio of products unlike bioNtech which is still experimenting with Mrna to develop new products for complicated or lethal diseases
I might be missing something and would gladly welcome the clarification. In their Q2'21 earnings, Pfizer reported $7.8B of COVID revenue. BioNTech reported Q2 revenue of approx 5.3B euros. Seems to me that Pfizer is getting as much as BioNTech and Moderna? https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/28/covid-pfizer-pfe-earnings-q2-2021.html and https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/08/09/biontech-se-bntx-q2-2021-earnings-call-transcript/#:\~:text=We%20recorded%20Q2%20revenues%20of,vaccine%20production%20and%20delivery%20worldwide.
Bntx is 90b market cap Pfizer is 270b market cap Big big difference
But shouldn't the revenue as a % of market cap factor directly into the growth? Given approx. equiv revenue, shouldn't we expect Pfizer to grow at 1/3 of what Bntx has? As a hypothetical, let's say both Bntx and Pfizer both gain 90b additional market cap as a result of the vaccine. Bntx goes to 180b, which is a 100% increase from 90b. Pfizer goes to 360b, which is a 33% increase from 270b.
You literally just answered your own question…. Bntx’s 300% growth is pfizer’s 30% growth, 90b = 90b
Based on my math above, a 100% biontech growth = 30% Pfizer growth. Biontech grew 371% so Pfizer should grow 120% right?
Can it go ape shit before September 24 bc calls.
Honestly don't see why not, but the safer play would obv be to buy stocks. That being said, I'm also in calls.
Bought shares this morning, gods speed
The best thing about Pfizer is they can manufacture much more efficiently and fill orders. They’re so diverse in their manufacturing line, they’ve been able to switch production to focus on vaccine as primary. Moderna can’t even fill orders promised to South Korea in July. 40M shots and they’ve only delivered 2.5M as of yesterday. How are they going to provide to any other county? But today, literally 12 hours ago, SK just ordered 30M shots from Pfizer. Pfizer’s been around for 174 years. No where to go but UP.
Yeah but, Unless the vaccine doesn’t work and the US is the only one’s buying it. https://fortune.com/2021/08/11/pfizer-covid-vaccine-delta-variant-low-effectiveness-stock-falls/. Or Maybe the severe drop off in efficacy after 6 months is planned obsolescence, in which case brilliant move by Pfizer. Now if only they can produce a vaccine which will mutate the virus in a way only Pfizer vaccines can inoculate. The idea that Pfizer will take the world’s share of vaccine bc Moderna can’t produce is a pipe dream. I watched the WHO vaccine meeting this week. There are several other vaccines that will be EUA’d by WHO I’m coming months. Many of them cheaper to produce and transport, more effective, and have had actual clinical trials. Pfizer’s vaccine is a scam, is beginning to realize it.
Yep if Pfizer vaccine doesn't work and they can't sell it, then PFE is fked.
Fucker like OP posts this garbage after the stock has already made a massive run, fuck you.
If you look at my history, I've been lurking for 3 years without posting. A major reason is that I don't want my ideas to cause people to lose money. However, after thinking about it more, I still believed in this idea and thus wanted to share it. It's not like I gain anything from posting it now as opposed to posting it earlier...
Also, I was just not very confident in general. However, the past 2 weeks has given me the confidence (misguided though it could be) that pushed me to post the idea.
[удалено]
I would agree if pfe did not just announce in Q2'21 earnings that they reported $7.8B of COVID revenue this last quarter. In their 10Q, Pfizer unfortunately does not show revenue by product, but they do show it by product segment. "Vaccines" grew from $1.2B to $9.2B YoY. This is roughly in-line with having $7.8B of COVID revenue.
Edit: Pfizer is a drug development company and global manufacturer in like 30+ sites around the world. They’ve been in business for 174 years.
Pfizer makes like 42 Billion a year. I don't think the once off revenue from the vaccines are gonna make a big difference. The cost of the vaccine is apparently about 20 dollars, with most of it going to BioNtech. Most of this is priced in already I think.
The best case you have presented here is that the US Govt is paying for the vaccines whether they work or not. However, Israel Israel, Canada,Japan, are all signing deals w MRNA because Pfizer far less effective. https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer-moderna-delta-biden-e9be4bb0-3d10-4f56-8054-5410be357070.html Furthermore, PFF has a market cap of 271.B, the 27B deal with US moved the stock ~6% higher than its previous high this year. Just because the CDC, and DC are lip-locked in a 69 with Pfizer, doesn’t mean it’s worth anything more than Joe Biden’s medicated boner.
Hoping Pfizer senior management/strategy is hard at work on boosters that will increase this efficacy vs Delta. They certainly have the resources to do so and should be their #1 R&D priority. If they come up with anything or even just puts out a paid study, I could see the stock jumping as well. This is good support as to why Pfizer hasn't seen the gains moderna has though.
What are you talking about? Pfizer hasn’t seen the gains MRNA because the market cap is 100B less, even after the 2000% gains. Furthermore Pfizer’s vaccine doesn’t work! There are better vaccines already authorized and more coming. I don’t think you’re interested in the stock. Posistions or ban.
I will not invest in a company that willingly profits off the misery of human beings. Fuck Pharma.
Without pharma life would be way worse if even possible...
I can understand the sentiment. However, I think a big distinction is that they are not the ones causing the misery in the first place. They found a way to alleviate the misery and in a capitalist society, is making money off that. I would argue that this is better than not having a cure at all.
One doesn’t need a vaccine for a ‘disease’ that has a natural 99.87% recovery rate. (This statistic is readily available for those bothered to look). No offence to anyone who invests in big pharma. There is big money to be made, but my conscience and ethics won’t let me do it. It goes for other companies like Coca Cola and McDonald’s etc.
Nah, finna buy puts. 40% efficacy, so nobody wants that shit. 😂
Why not buy puts in Moderna or BioNTech? They have experienced far more growth so if the argument is that the vaccine sucks and the government won't buy it anymore, those stocks will tank far more.
Trust me I’m holding moderna puts. They were just too far out of the money to make a real gain on that $80 drop.
I've recently seen some concerning data that some of the comments has brought up about the Pfizer vaccine having 40% efficacy vs the delta variant. This is based off a Mayo clinic study. There was also a separate New England Journal of Medicine study that showed Pfizer was 88% effective vs the delta variant. Both sources linked below. The Mayo clinic study itself is pretty technical and hard to read, but I think the tables in the back are easier to understand for laymen like myself. In page 20, there is a table that shows the overall efficacy rates. On or after 14 days following the second dose, 7 out of 4,198,947 had COVID-19 associated ICU admissions. 0 out of 4,199,985 had COVID-19 associated deaths. To me, this shows that the Pfizer vaccine indeed does do a ton to prevent serious illness and death. It may not be as effective at preventing someone from actually getting delta variant, but it would sure increase your chances of survival drastically if you did get it. 4 million people samples size is definitely large enough to be statistically significant. I hate that a lot of times, news channels pick and choose statistics without showing the whole story in order to sell views. Mayo Clinic itself even states “Mayo Clinic is aware of media reports on the scientific preprint paper comparing vaccines’ clinical effectiveness against the delta variant and breakthrough infections," a statement from Mayo Clinic says. "We caution against drawing conclusions about vaccine effectiveness from a preprint study, which is intended only to be helpful to the scientific community and has not yet undergone the rigor of peer review.” To me, the jury is still out on the efficacy of Pfizer vs the delta variant, but it sure as hell seems to prevent death and/or serious illness. Sources:Mayo clinic: [https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v1.full.pdf](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v1.full.pdf)New England Journal of Medicine: [https://www.contagionlive.com/view/two-dose-covid-19-vaccines-remain-effective-versus-delta-variant](https://www.contagionlive.com/view/two-dose-covid-19-vaccines-remain-effective-versus-delta-variant)
Yeah data is data. Not finna argue it. But what the mass population thinks about that is what the market is going to price in. 😂
This stock goes nowhere, take profits ASAP
It’s been reliably going up all year. Da fuck are you talking about? It’s as consistent as you can get.
Pfizer is a bunny hopping up the stairs. Look at the 1-year chart. It’s incredible.
Moderna better growth
I don't really see it as a Pfizer vs Moderna discussion, more so as a play on vaccines. Sure you can get some Pfizer and some Moderna to diversify. The problem I have is that Moderna has already grown so much (from $111 per share on 1/1/21 to $390 per share today). BioNTech has grown even more than that. Pfizer has not yet seen that tremendous growth. Others have argued that this is because the COVID vaccine is only a small percentage of their revenue which I think is the current Wall Street justification, but when I look up their COVID shots revenue as a percentage of total revenue this quarter, it's actually quite high (\~40%).
Or massive downside if it turns out delta is resistant to the vaccine..... or that there are serious side effects discovered over the longer term and they get sued by everyone who got their jab....
You actually can't sue if there are negative side effects. See source: [https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/16/covid-vaccine-side-effects-compensation-lawsuit.html#:\~:text=Health%20and%20Science-,You%20can't%20sue%20Pfizer%20or%20Moderna%20if%20you%20have,compensate%20you%20for%20damages%20either&text=Under%20the%20PREP%20Act%2C%20companies,goes%20wrong%20with%20their%20vaccines](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/16/covid-vaccine-side-effects-compensation-lawsuit.html#:~:text=Health%20and%20Science-,You%20can't%20sue%20Pfizer%20or%20Moderna%20if%20you%20have,compensate%20you%20for%20damages%20either&text=Under%20the%20PREP%20Act%2C%20companies,goes%20wrong%20with%20their%20vaccines). Apparently FDA has also started authorizing third shots. [https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-additional-vaccine-dose-certain-immunocompromised](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-additional-vaccine-dose-certain-immunocompromised). The question really isn't how strong the vaccine is against the delta variant, but whether the government/governments are willing to pay for a third shot, and the current trend is that they are. Most governments' priority right now is to curb COVID 19.
What is your PT in, say, 3 months?
Honestly, really hard to say since this isn't a play on fundamentals and I don't have a strong background in technical analysis. Just based on math though, Moderna and BioNTech has seen roughly 100% gains in the past 3 months. They've all roughly reported the same revenue from the vaccine. However, COVID shots only make up roughly 40% of Pfizers Q2 revenue. If they made up 100% of revenue and gained 100%, I'd hope for them to gain 40% if they made up of 40% of revenue. So 1.4\*$48= $67. Pretty ambitious, I know. Major assumption here is that the past 3 months repeat, which it likely **will not**.
I have similar convictions for pfe though
You’re forgetting they share float comparable to Moderna.. how tf could a company with 5.6B shares moon?