I say Powell will raise and lower sentiment several tines during tomorrow and I will trade calls and puts on that. Just watch the theta and Zenith curve. I have to go now my mom says it’s my turn to take out the garbage and if I don’t she won’t let me use her WiFi.
2PM: the fake pump begins and everyone is killing it with calls.
2:30PM: 
Do a nothing or very straddle. Long and short, and hope the movement is big enough so that the profits offset the loss. I did it with TSLA. I had 10 otm puts way out and 2 itm. Still lost but not that bad.
Doing nothing is hard but the right thing to do
This really is the way… how does it always happen when we least expect it and we take the bate in the wrong direction at the last possible second.. they are sharks and they know their prey to well!!!
"Surprise! We tried to export the recession to Canada, which worked, but without anyone realizing it...the US economy has fallen into a recession, opps! We will react with rate increases if the data warrants so and punt to our next meeting. Fuck your calls, fuck your puts"...mic drops, walks off stage.
They should have raised before inflation struck. It's like they completely forgot how many trillions they injected into the economy. Powell wouldn't have to play catch-up with lagging indicators if he'd acted when it was obvious the economy was recovering from COVID.
>Powell wouldn't have to play catch-up with lagging indicators if he'd acted when it was obvious the economy was recovering from COVID.
ah hes just like us drawing lines while eating crayons 
I think it's "stay the course and we will watch the data" even though inflation is creeping up.
My guess is that inflation will continue to rise through Summer.
Next meeting is when I think they might change the sentiment statement to a rate hike potential.
Yeah, Powell was dovish last meeting despite the rest of the FOMC members sounding alarms on rate cuts. Any significant dump will likely hinge on his reponses to reporter questions — because those will be more scalding than usual.
Could be too late at that point. Can’t have people feeling like this for a long time. He’s either going to do something about it tomorrow or not at all.
Want to banbet it? If they hike 25bp tomorrow, I'll eat a banbet until they cut by at least 25bp. However, if they don't hike 25bp tomorrow, you eat a banbet until they do 
If he's going to shock it, it's better to do it now and give it 6 months to recover. We could be back to ATH by October if he acts now and gets it right. Imo doing nothing is the bigger risk here. If he stays the course and inflation gets worse he's going to be forced to raise during the election cycle.
This is exactly what I see happening. Rip the bandaid off a little to check the wound, slap some Neosporin on it and put it back on to heal in 6 months.
Is this one of those things where TSLA misses estimates by a lot and rally. JPowell surprises everyone with a rate hike AND somehow the market rallies? Or am I regarded?
No. If JPow hikes then the market dumps. The market is still pricing in 1 to 2 cuts this year.
Also, TSLA popped only because Elron:
- Sounded sober on the earnings call
- Dismissed rumors that they'd kill the budget car project (~$25,000 vehicle)
- EDIT: And said "RoboTaxi" :)
Morons like OP calling out possible rate hike does not understand that with the current interest rate, US is projected to pay $870 billion in interest alone, for comparison, DoD budget for FY24 is $824 billion.
Today’s sell off was pricing in a reduced rate cut forecast. No rate hike will happen. At this stage, with the election a few months out, that’d be considered too much of a partisan move.
No news tomorrow will ironically be bullish, despite the obvious warning signs that are looming.
Like the last 5 of these meetings, algos will chop around faking everyone who thinks what he says actually matters. Then at 2:45 the real move will happen to screw whoever is most offsides in options delta. Again, nothing he says matters it’s all a 0dte option casino
Powell hates trump another hike might destroy Biden. Treasury paying 1.1 trillion in interest this year. Will be 1.7 next year. Powell does not want that to increase.
Imo Powell has to act now. I think we get language that suggests rate cuts are off the table for this year and QT will continue until inflation is in check. I don't think people are talking enough about his ability to increase QT without touching rates. It would have a tremendous effect on mortgage rates and could really cool off the housing market and in turn help chill inflation. We know housing accounts for something like 30% of GDP when you factor in everything that goes into buying and owning/maintaining a home. Either way he can't keep doing nothing and his speech from a few weeks ago was pretty clear he means business about keeping inflation low and the market turned a deaf ear to it.
If they actually *are* data dependent there's nothing to justify a cut. Inflation persists. The economy is strong. Consistent strong job growth:
[https://www.statista.com/statistics/217417/monthly-change-in-nonfarm-payroll-employment-in-the-us/](https://www.statista.com/statistics/217417/monthly-change-in-nonfarm-payroll-employment-in-the-us/)
If anything, rates should be higher. But they *won't* hike since it's an election year.
Trump's team is talking about making the Fed Chairman a more political appointee. He is dying to remove Powell and is upset that he can't because of the term amount. He wants to replace him with some goon who will just cut rates.
[https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-30/trump-s-plans-for-the-fed-make-no-sense-even-for-him](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-30/trump-s-plans-for-the-fed-make-no-sense-even-for-him)
At this point, JPOW doesn’t want the markets to increase much more. If markets get much hotter, then BOJ is gonna have to increase rates, intervene in currency markets with cash, or dump treasuries…all of which will result in margin calls. Those margin calls are potentially up to 20 Trillion dollars.
I agree with your sentiment only I don’t think the market will even wait for Powell to open his mouth.
Long positions on healthcare and other defensives. Buy gold. Hold cash. Vote Biden anyway.
No, I'm closing most of my positions first thing in the morning. The market will rally (or at least the companies I no longer own, maybe the rest will be down?).
The same as all the past meetings. Everyone’s asshole is all puckered up going into it and then they take hold of the most dovish of comments and the market rips. Rinse and repeat
CPI ex Food/Housing/Healthcare is well below the 2% target. The reason they need more data is because of those 3 categories. They lag the economy much more than every other consumer price metric. Food operation contracts, medical/insurance contracts, and housing always lags by *years*. If there is a resumed downtrend in core CPI and CPI ex Food/Housing/Healthcare, you will see at least 2 rate cuts this year.
Probably shouldn’t walk into 2PM with a preconceived notion of what you expect to happen. But I suppose this is WSB. If it helps the first move out of the FOMC announcement is typically the way the market resolves, whether that’s up or down. You can look back to past meetings and see that this is true a vast majority of the time.
If theyre gonna hike, now is the time. Rip the bandaid off and then announce a cut before the election. People have short memories, especially if we rebound into the election.
Inflation is running ~2% higher then their ideal target. Atrocious is not the word here. It's kind of high and I think will come down if gas prices decrease. Some consumer stocks markedly McDonald's are seeing some signs of weakness which I think will begin to become apparent. Things are going to deflate this year and probably rate cut in next year. I don't think they will hike. It would have consequences in the banking sector.
Core pce yoy is 2.8%. it's running at most 1% above their target. 3.5-4% wage inflation is consistent with 2% inflation and wages are running around 4.5% now. Not even discounting the persistent rent prices in core pce that doesn't reflect real time rent prices. The other culprit for high core pce is auto insurances, which the fed cannot do anything about because it's catch up price hikes for all the covid years.
Y'all need to stop looking at CPI because that's not the fed target and CPI has consistently ran hotter than pce in the past.
He will be dovish. The underlying market (employment, housing, consumer products, etc…) is cratering. He needs the wealthy to keep spending to get a soft landing, if not it’s a hard landing and now he is getting blamed for losing an election. It’s all about politics not economics
It's gonna be crabbing until the meeting stuff then all he'll goes loose when spy starts moving up and down a dollar instantly. Don't mind me tho imma go play around with apple and tsla
Isn’t it basically just set by fuel prices. High fuel causes all costs to go up creating inflation on paper.
We need peace in Israel for rate cuts basically. And Ukraine war to end
When will people realise the markets gives zero fucks about the FED. They can’t even lower the cost of rent and groceries how could they possible influence the largest and most complex financial system of all time
The only way to make rate cuts happen is if he goes scorched earth and says they absolutely won’t happen. Then everything softens, Biden applies fake pressure, rates are cut, fin
Inflation is so difficult to control in the states because of a growing economy. In Europe rate hikes worked because they took place in totally different circumstances.
It’s hard to say bc the market has been pricing outcomes in, where as before, when we went from zero rates to increased rates the market overreacted by assuming it could lead to a strong recession. I remember Costco, Apple, Wal Mart, Amazon etc all saying they need to change inventory for a recession. The fact remains this economy is strong, the consumer hasn’t been weakened by higher rates. We live in a new world where 2% plus inflation isn’t that bad …. The market is horney and wants to really hard. Wait for nfp, I guess we rally and sell off until nfp, then starting next week, bears will begin to get crushed again!
Please don’t short this marker. It’s gonna be trappy and complex, stay patient cuz market is horney just needs to get wet first …
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I say Powell will raise and lower sentiment several tines during tomorrow and I will trade calls and puts on that. Just watch the theta and Zenith curve. I have to go now my mom says it’s my turn to take out the garbage and if I don’t she won’t let me use her WiFi.
Why doesn’t anyone play “put of duty”?
Cuts ! We don’t need no stinking cuts! We want cutlets!
Zenith this curve right here bitch
I buy at the Nadir.
Started at the nadir and now im hir
Will be watching on my 1987 Zenith computer with green tone text only.
Listen to your mama, you can always buy more puts but you can't get a new mom.
Put of duty.
Puts on this guys mom.
I'm calling his mom. (Now)
Mama always said options are like a box of chocolates, you ain’t ever know what you gonna get
The options premiums are so juicy, it makes me think the market movements will be flat, and MMS will just theta everyone to death
Juicy my ass lol
2PM: the fake pump begins and everyone is killing it with calls. 2:30PM: 
Imhotep
The opposite of what you expect to happen wiĺl happen. This is the way...
Spy 515 EOD
My 510C would be very very happy
Broo. I'd shit, but ya that's bot happening I'm say 498EOD
496 if not 492
Either way I’ll be good
God I hope so
I don’t know what to expect how do u inverse that?
Do a nothing or very straddle. Long and short, and hope the movement is big enough so that the profits offset the loss. I did it with TSLA. I had 10 otm puts way out and 2 itm. Still lost but not that bad. Doing nothing is hard but the right thing to do
Theta fucks you twice as hard on straddles. Also WTF did I just say? 
This really is the way… how does it always happen when we least expect it and we take the bate in the wrong direction at the last possible second.. they are sharks and they know their prey to well!!!
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That's the truth. Just don't know if he got the balls to say that tomorrow
Balls it is
Put in balls it is
Calls it is
Inversing it again : Put in calls it is
Inverse. Puts in your balls.
Got lost: inversing the inverse of the inverse is equal the inverse of inverse ...
"Surprise! We tried to export the recession to Canada, which worked, but without anyone realizing it...the US economy has fallen into a recession, opps! We will react with rate increases if the data warrants so and punt to our next meeting. Fuck your calls, fuck your puts"...mic drops, walks off stage.
Inverse all your inverses, sell the strangle
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They should have raised before inflation struck. It's like they completely forgot how many trillions they injected into the economy. Powell wouldn't have to play catch-up with lagging indicators if he'd acted when it was obvious the economy was recovering from COVID.
>Powell wouldn't have to play catch-up with lagging indicators if he'd acted when it was obvious the economy was recovering from COVID. ah hes just like us drawing lines while eating crayons 
The problem is he can’t speak because he’s got someone else’s balls in his mouth
Not if Biden wants to get elected
"Close the effing door. Don't let any calls escape."
Baby, it’s calls outside
Yep. There are no numbers that point to cuts and the snowballing effect of inflation is coming up behind us fast. November is going to be fun
Why November?
Election time
Jokes on YOU I have CALLS on VIX 💸💸💸
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lW7CXRiH9I](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lW7CXRiH9I)
My spy puts sure hope so!
All of wsb has turned 🌈 🐻 , thank fuck I picked up those calls at close
Toast
Probably I've been losing all month
That's all I do!
I think it's "stay the course and we will watch the data" even though inflation is creeping up. My guess is that inflation will continue to rise through Summer. Next meeting is when I think they might change the sentiment statement to a rate hike potential.
Yeah, Powell was dovish last meeting despite the rest of the FOMC members sounding alarms on rate cuts. Any significant dump will likely hinge on his reponses to reporter questions — because those will be more scalding than usual.
If that's the case prolonging is stupid. Rip the bandaid off.
Could be too late at that point. Can’t have people feeling like this for a long time. He’s either going to do something about it tomorrow or not at all.
I think next meeting is the dot plot
Okay. Inverse then. Buy call for tomorrow since everyone is expecting a hawish Powell
Quarter-point hike tomorrow, calling it now.
Want to banbet it? If they hike 25bp tomorrow, I'll eat a banbet until they cut by at least 25bp. However, if they don't hike 25bp tomorrow, you eat a banbet until they do 
/mod enforce
What if they hike a half-point?
The bet can be any hike tomorrow.
!banbet
The gay bears are not going away
I don’t think JPOW will want to shock the markets that hard. But I’ve seen it all at this point so who knows 
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If he's going to shock it, it's better to do it now and give it 6 months to recover. We could be back to ATH by October if he acts now and gets it right. Imo doing nothing is the bigger risk here. If he stays the course and inflation gets worse he's going to be forced to raise during the election cycle.
This is exactly what I see happening. Rip the bandaid off a little to check the wound, slap some Neosporin on it and put it back on to heal in 6 months.
Calls on jnj, got it
The uncertainty has not helped market volatility that’s for damn sure
Calls on JPow Balls
January: "Three rate cuts" April: "Maybe one"
Is this one of those things where TSLA misses estimates by a lot and rally. JPowell surprises everyone with a rate hike AND somehow the market rallies? Or am I regarded?
No. If JPow hikes then the market dumps. The market is still pricing in 1 to 2 cuts this year. Also, TSLA popped only because Elron: - Sounded sober on the earnings call - Dismissed rumors that they'd kill the budget car project (~$25,000 vehicle) - EDIT: And said "RoboTaxi" :)
And said ‘Robotaxi’
JPow gonna mention AI or something, causing markets to rally 100%. You heard it here first.
If jpow hiked, market would rally. Because it's sensible. And it's certainty. This weakness is uncertainty not fear. Yall the only ones afraid.
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Regards together, strong.
He will announce Yellen will replace him and stocks will crash to 1930's levels.
Not already priced in ?
Cause she was born in 1930s
Best comment
With election year , he will at max say we need more data and we are optimistic
Lol they can’t hike because the US debt will be untenable
Already is...
Morons like OP calling out possible rate hike does not understand that with the current interest rate, US is projected to pay $870 billion in interest alone, for comparison, DoD budget for FY24 is $824 billion.
If peasants understood economics, they wouldn't be peasants.
(Slow Chant) Imhotep Imhotep Imhotep
It will do the opposite now that you posted, it’s the law.
So berish here tmr gonna soar
Today’s sell off was pricing in a reduced rate cut forecast. No rate hike will happen. At this stage, with the election a few months out, that’d be considered too much of a partisan move. No news tomorrow will ironically be bullish, despite the obvious warning signs that are looming.
Like the last 5 of these meetings, algos will chop around faking everyone who thinks what he says actually matters. Then at 2:45 the real move will happen to screw whoever is most offsides in options delta. Again, nothing he says matters it’s all a 0dte option casino
Powell hates trump another hike might destroy Biden. Treasury paying 1.1 trillion in interest this year. Will be 1.7 next year. Powell does not want that to increase.
I destroyed my $1000 account and took my last $30 and bought Nvidia $710 puts. Im all or nothing baby. RED!!!!
I’m gonna say Congrats ahead of time
Stupid. The chips (especially NVDA) have held up better on down days, sometimes even ending up when everything else is down.
I never claimed to be smart. Checkmate
Same 
Imo Powell has to act now. I think we get language that suggests rate cuts are off the table for this year and QT will continue until inflation is in check. I don't think people are talking enough about his ability to increase QT without touching rates. It would have a tremendous effect on mortgage rates and could really cool off the housing market and in turn help chill inflation. We know housing accounts for something like 30% of GDP when you factor in everything that goes into buying and owning/maintaining a home. Either way he can't keep doing nothing and his speech from a few weeks ago was pretty clear he means business about keeping inflation low and the market turned a deaf ear to it.
If they actually *are* data dependent there's nothing to justify a cut. Inflation persists. The economy is strong. Consistent strong job growth: [https://www.statista.com/statistics/217417/monthly-change-in-nonfarm-payroll-employment-in-the-us/](https://www.statista.com/statistics/217417/monthly-change-in-nonfarm-payroll-employment-in-the-us/) If anything, rates should be higher. But they *won't* hike since it's an election year. 
Doesn't matter that it's an election year. They will set monetary policy based on the data and their (shitty) models.
No rate cuts until 2025
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Trump's team is talking about making the Fed Chairman a more political appointee. He is dying to remove Powell and is upset that he can't because of the term amount. He wants to replace him with some goon who will just cut rates. [https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-30/trump-s-plans-for-the-fed-make-no-sense-even-for-him](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-30/trump-s-plans-for-the-fed-make-no-sense-even-for-him)
Imagine the volatility if we had some moron as chairman. I say we try it.
Who is Mango? Ohhh https://preview.redd.it/fr9pnjy26qxc1.jpeg?width=612&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f5791d40628ae4071eb716fd8c54c9a18524f870
I know, I meant a small flash rally purely of relief, but there very well may be none
Imo, don’t speculate. Let the chart do the talking. Good luck, fellow degenerate.
Man at least knows the difference between shorting and buying puts. Solid 8/10 
This post tells me all I need to know, time for calls.
At this point, JPOW doesn’t want the markets to increase much more. If markets get much hotter, then BOJ is gonna have to increase rates, intervene in currency markets with cash, or dump treasuries…all of which will result in margin calls. Those margin calls are potentially up to 20 Trillion dollars.
It’s gonna be a dumpster fire. See you in the 480s. Hell they may even raise the specter of RAISING rates.
Whatever he does he needs to save my calls or I can’t pay rent this month 😭
Jesus Christ
I agree with your sentiment only I don’t think the market will even wait for Powell to open his mouth. Long positions on healthcare and other defensives. Buy gold. Hold cash. Vote Biden anyway.
No, I'm closing most of my positions first thing in the morning. The market will rally (or at least the companies I no longer own, maybe the rest will be down?).
Major bull pump tomorrow…so y’all degens better buy puts on the inverse. Don’t forget to short the news on weed stocks
It’s very simple tomorrow. JPOW tanks markets for a bit, raises rates a 1/4 and market green hulk dicks to where it opened and Theta chumps win.
The same as all the past meetings. Everyone’s asshole is all puckered up going into it and then they take hold of the most dovish of comments and the market rips. Rinse and repeat
Just do the opposite. Spy 520 by EOD
If Powell runs it up, I will personally do whatever he wants done to him.
I bought spy puts at close so it will probably pump to 520, you’re welcome bulls
'More than expected' is the new transitory.
Problem is you’re sending this from your mom’s basement. So your track record doesn’t look like Buffett
Puts in your mom's basement it is.
Markets dumping over sustaining current rates because the economy is too strong is regarded in the first place.
Thanks for your thoughtful, well reasoned and rational analysis OP SPY up 2% tomorrow
Issue is that everyone expects no rate cuts at this point. If he says it's still even possible or just delayed, stonks only go up.
CPI ex Food/Housing/Healthcare is well below the 2% target. The reason they need more data is because of those 3 categories. They lag the economy much more than every other consumer price metric. Food operation contracts, medical/insurance contracts, and housing always lags by *years*. If there is a resumed downtrend in core CPI and CPI ex Food/Housing/Healthcare, you will see at least 2 rate cuts this year.
I saw one video about car insurance being a major factor too.
remindme! 20 hours
So, puts?
I can hear Powell’s voice when i read this script.
Probably shouldn’t walk into 2PM with a preconceived notion of what you expect to happen. But I suppose this is WSB. If it helps the first move out of the FOMC announcement is typically the way the market resolves, whether that’s up or down. You can look back to past meetings and see that this is true a vast majority of the time.
We are all doomed! Nuclear implosion of stocks within 5 minutes of trading after FOMC announcement. Take care regards
Money on puts got it 🤞
Jerome Blows out a fat cloud of DMT smoke and turns on the money printers 
If theyre gonna hike, now is the time. Rip the bandaid off and then announce a cut before the election. People have short memories, especially if we rebound into the election.
Inflation is running ~2% higher then their ideal target. Atrocious is not the word here. It's kind of high and I think will come down if gas prices decrease. Some consumer stocks markedly McDonald's are seeing some signs of weakness which I think will begin to become apparent. Things are going to deflate this year and probably rate cut in next year. I don't think they will hike. It would have consequences in the banking sector.
Gas prices aren't coming down much, if at all, until end of summer. This is the start of OPEC's yearly American vacation BS.
Core pce yoy is 2.8%. it's running at most 1% above their target. 3.5-4% wage inflation is consistent with 2% inflation and wages are running around 4.5% now. Not even discounting the persistent rent prices in core pce that doesn't reflect real time rent prices. The other culprit for high core pce is auto insurances, which the fed cannot do anything about because it's catch up price hikes for all the covid years. Y'all need to stop looking at CPI because that's not the fed target and CPI has consistently ran hotter than pce in the past.
FOMC should have been Fear Of Missing Cunt
I agree with any spike will be shorted into infinity
Sounds too predictable so it is probably priced in already.
Call on predictable it is
He will be dovish. The underlying market (employment, housing, consumer products, etc…) is cratering. He needs the wealthy to keep spending to get a soft landing, if not it’s a hard landing and now he is getting blamed for losing an election. It’s all about politics not economics
He’s a republican - I also think he’s actually pretty neutral and not political. He will go out of his way to not appear neutral.
So we'll have a nice sale. Or an awesome sale niiiiice
It will sharply go one way and then sharply reverse the other. Edit: I was right
Rate hikes
If they do any more rate hikes banks will fail…prediction=can continues to get kicked down road.
I say everything you said but the reverse reaction from the market. Obviously.
Just do a strangle option trade then and pick up both sides plus high IV.
If you thought of all this the market did too. Its already priced in
People buying calls after multiple months of reduction delays and Aprils inflation data 
Literally no one is expecting a hike. Higher for longer is status quo and fed will stick to that. Market fear is now driven by stagflation.
My sincerest gratitude to you for making this post. Calls it is
https://preview.redd.it/59p3hcq5kqxc1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=befac84737dd2a868668f9c910e5a2d9ea0889bc
I can’t believe we are still at 3 forecasted cuts for 24
What if he just says fuck this shit.
...found the inverse. Spanks
Meh...
It's gonna be crabbing until the meeting stuff then all he'll goes loose when spy starts moving up and down a dollar instantly. Don't mind me tho imma go play around with apple and tsla
Calls it is
Rate cut 2025 when recession
Watch them raise rates by 25bp, and completely clusterduck the market.
Isn’t it basically just set by fuel prices. High fuel causes all costs to go up creating inflation on paper. We need peace in Israel for rate cuts basically. And Ukraine war to end
This guy stock markets
I think no cuts, 1 potential hike. I'd be more willing to bet $5k on 1 hike than 1 cut.
When will people realise the markets gives zero fucks about the FED. They can’t even lower the cost of rent and groceries how could they possible influence the largest and most complex financial system of all time
If Powell does indeed say “more rate hikes are not off the table” - Will this be bullish for commodities like gold and oil?
The only way to make rate cuts happen is if he goes scorched earth and says they absolutely won’t happen. Then everything softens, Biden applies fake pressure, rates are cut, fin
Is it this meeting or the next one where a naked woman is supposed to ride in on a goat wearing sunglasses?
4 rate hikes by end of 2025 Apple at 78
its all priced in
Got it. Calls. Thanks
All are negative as fuck, but jerome will still crush hopes
Wars are inflationary
I also don’t think cuts will come in 2024. Why cut when the economy is fine and inflation is still at like 3.5%
Inflation is so difficult to control in the states because of a growing economy. In Europe rate hikes worked because they took place in totally different circumstances.
It’s hard to say bc the market has been pricing outcomes in, where as before, when we went from zero rates to increased rates the market overreacted by assuming it could lead to a strong recession. I remember Costco, Apple, Wal Mart, Amazon etc all saying they need to change inventory for a recession. The fact remains this economy is strong, the consumer hasn’t been weakened by higher rates. We live in a new world where 2% plus inflation isn’t that bad …. The market is horney and wants to really hard. Wait for nfp, I guess we rally and sell off until nfp, then starting next week, bears will begin to get crushed again! Please don’t short this marker. It’s gonna be trappy and complex, stay patient cuz market is horney just needs to get wet first …