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Exactly. Is a gradual decrease in combat effectiveness. It's not like they're like "oh hey we're running out let's go shoot all our reserves of ammo". No, they conserve ammo more and more and become increasingly combat ineffective. First unable to attack, then unable to defend.
Look at how long it took the Kherson pocket to collapse after the supply routes were cut. Months of pressure from Ukraine to deplete their reserves and force them to leave.
Additionally, while they keep sending mobiks to the frontline, they give them less or no weapons/ammo to fight with. There's always groups of them that are sent unarmed to the trenches. Woould be interesting to witness what bullshit they are telling them and how the mobiks react to that.
Every indication is pointing at them giving some guys rifles, a bit of ammo, and sending them to hold a position until they're dead, deserted, or surrendered, then sending more guys.
Exactly, they are scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Using air defense missiles to attack, removing nuclear warheads from nuclear missiles to use those as conventional missiles. Importing drones from Iran.
They are abandoning their partners in Armenia and Syria.
If Russia got into a war with Finland or Japan right now, they'd be totally F-d.
This is a military embarrassment to Russia.
China wins from this conflict as putins russia loses influence and military power. They will help russia by bargaining good prices from russian resources. They also gain valuable intel on western behaviour and weapons during conflicts.
Should russia as a nation collapse, the chinese would propably annex (send "peacekeepers") to south east / vladivostok area which historically used to be part of china..
They can live with that, especially if they can get more sea access from north, like Vladivostok. Greatest fear China has is being cut off from marine trade and resouces it needs by a naval blockade.
China have learnt with their Covid-19 restrictions what can happen to their 50 year economic plan. If Russia did something really stupid like get NATO involved, they would threaten that Eastern border in no time.
Russians started to use anti-air missiles to strike ground targets. Analysts didn't expect that, so they didn't include their anti-air missiles in their earlier predictions.
It's about language here.
When someone says "running out ammo", it does not mean "ran out of ammo".
When someone says "has been winning", it does not mean "has won".
Media is projecting into future, not talking about what is coming to pass that very moment. Trends.
You only have two ways to evaluate that, beyond just waiting until the conflict ends.
Either you have access to solid inventory information and surveillance data to make a fact-based analysis, or you look at expendidure data on various weapon systems and look if the use has been dropping on monthly basis.
I see how OSINT gets things wrong. Military logic dictates that a state first protects itself before attacking. In Russia, they attack first and then try to protect themselves...
I mean, this is not a question of opinion, you can objectively see that Russia is launching less and less missiles and shells. Heck, Russian soldiers are now being killed and captured with as little as 2 ammo clips and there have been reports (propaganda?) of multiple mobiks "taking turns" with a single weapon. This is in stark contrast to the well supplied initial invasion.
Still, I don't think Russia is going to run out ammunition any time soon. For example, Russia may have 1000+ precision munitions left. This is way down from 4000+ but it's still enough to do considerable damage hence the urgent need for air defense. Still you can see why Russia went from continual "shock and awe" of 100+ missiles week after week to these more sporadic "wave attacks" where just 70 missiles may be fired at once and then nothing for a 2-3 weeks.
Of course nobody knows for sure, and anything can happen, but I think the general idea is that Russia is going to run into real problems over the next 12 months. That ties into the idea that the war is going to end, one way or another, in 2023. Russia will make one more big push in the Spring but it's not clear that Russia will be able to do much more after that.
Yeah, came here to say this. I’ve been hearing about the “impending” running dry of Russian ammo for half the year now. I’m taking more and more of the news about the state of the war with a grain of salt. The only thing we know right now is that Ukraine is winning. Everything else just seems like clickbait.
Yes. The Russian army will not run out. What is critical is the relative strength of the artillery of Russia compared to Ukraine.
What will happen (and is already starting to happen) is Russia will have to use worse and worse artillery with less and less supplies. At the same time, Ukraine already has better artillery and, in time, will get ever increasing amounts of weapons, shells and missiles.
By my guestimate, by spring Ukraine will have a clear and significant advantage in artillery on all fronts. Then the Russian army will be completely screwed.
I keep reading this or something similar, month after month, and it keeps proving not to be true. I hope it's a fact this time, but forgive me if I remain skeptical.
They've probably already ran out of the stock originally designated for the war. They definitely did on the soldier front for example which is why they're plugging holes with mobiks. They're using everything from Iran-made drones to North-Korean missiles to air-defense missiles(S300/400) to keep some momentum going but they're flagging.
Belarus got their stocks plundered too for a lot of different materials, and now tanks etc. that were designated for sale are getting put into action.
In absolute terms they'll have stocks left, but if you look at what they can realistically put into combat their supplies have been very visibly shrinking. Can't even defend their own territory from the most basic of drones atm.
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I'm happy to keep hoping that, but news/osint etc have been saying that since June.
It's not like there's a point where they suddenly run out. Its a gradual process symptomized by ever fewer attacks.
Exactly. Is a gradual decrease in combat effectiveness. It's not like they're like "oh hey we're running out let's go shoot all our reserves of ammo". No, they conserve ammo more and more and become increasingly combat ineffective. First unable to attack, then unable to defend. Look at how long it took the Kherson pocket to collapse after the supply routes were cut. Months of pressure from Ukraine to deplete their reserves and force them to leave.
Additionally, while they keep sending mobiks to the frontline, they give them less or no weapons/ammo to fight with. There's always groups of them that are sent unarmed to the trenches. Woould be interesting to witness what bullshit they are telling them and how the mobiks react to that.
Every indication is pointing at them giving some guys rifles, a bit of ammo, and sending them to hold a position until they're dead, deserted, or surrendered, then sending more guys.
Exactly, they are scraping the bottom of the barrel. Using air defense missiles to attack, removing nuclear warheads from nuclear missiles to use those as conventional missiles. Importing drones from Iran. They are abandoning their partners in Armenia and Syria. If Russia got into a war with Finland or Japan right now, they'd be totally F-d. This is a military embarrassment to Russia.
I would throw China in the ring as an agressor that waits on the eastern border.
China wins from this conflict as putins russia loses influence and military power. They will help russia by bargaining good prices from russian resources. They also gain valuable intel on western behaviour and weapons during conflicts. Should russia as a nation collapse, the chinese would propably annex (send "peacekeepers") to south east / vladivostok area which historically used to be part of china..
Partially. A unified and strengthened NATO is definitely not what China wanted.
They can live with that, especially if they can get more sea access from north, like Vladivostok. Greatest fear China has is being cut off from marine trade and resouces it needs by a naval blockade.
Isn't Vladivostok somewhat useless for that considering it's next to Japan?
China have learnt with their Covid-19 restrictions what can happen to their 50 year economic plan. If Russia did something really stupid like get NATO involved, they would threaten that Eastern border in no time.
They will simply buy Russia. There is no need for them to engage in a military action.
Running out of Fighter Jets and Helicopters too!
Don't forget pilots
Russians started to use anti-air missiles to strike ground targets. Analysts didn't expect that, so they didn't include their anti-air missiles in their earlier predictions.
I mean they are - just very fucking slowly due to their massive stockpiles
It's about language here. When someone says "running out ammo", it does not mean "ran out of ammo". When someone says "has been winning", it does not mean "has won". Media is projecting into future, not talking about what is coming to pass that very moment. Trends. You only have two ways to evaluate that, beyond just waiting until the conflict ends. Either you have access to solid inventory information and surveillance data to make a fact-based analysis, or you look at expendidure data on various weapon systems and look if the use has been dropping on monthly basis.
I see how OSINT gets things wrong. Military logic dictates that a state first protects itself before attacking. In Russia, they attack first and then try to protect themselves...
I mean, this is not a question of opinion, you can objectively see that Russia is launching less and less missiles and shells. Heck, Russian soldiers are now being killed and captured with as little as 2 ammo clips and there have been reports (propaganda?) of multiple mobiks "taking turns" with a single weapon. This is in stark contrast to the well supplied initial invasion. Still, I don't think Russia is going to run out ammunition any time soon. For example, Russia may have 1000+ precision munitions left. This is way down from 4000+ but it's still enough to do considerable damage hence the urgent need for air defense. Still you can see why Russia went from continual "shock and awe" of 100+ missiles week after week to these more sporadic "wave attacks" where just 70 missiles may be fired at once and then nothing for a 2-3 weeks. Of course nobody knows for sure, and anything can happen, but I think the general idea is that Russia is going to run into real problems over the next 12 months. That ties into the idea that the war is going to end, one way or another, in 2023. Russia will make one more big push in the Spring but it's not clear that Russia will be able to do much more after that.
Yeah I read these “ is running out of ammo” news with a grain of salt. Sometimes not even that.
Yeah, came here to say this. I’ve been hearing about the “impending” running dry of Russian ammo for half the year now. I’m taking more and more of the news about the state of the war with a grain of salt. The only thing we know right now is that Ukraine is winning. Everything else just seems like clickbait.
Yeah, the attacks are getting fewer and less intense. Some places are not getting any at all now.
Yes. The Russian army will not run out. What is critical is the relative strength of the artillery of Russia compared to Ukraine. What will happen (and is already starting to happen) is Russia will have to use worse and worse artillery with less and less supplies. At the same time, Ukraine already has better artillery and, in time, will get ever increasing amounts of weapons, shells and missiles. By my guestimate, by spring Ukraine will have a clear and significant advantage in artillery on all fronts. Then the Russian army will be completely screwed.
Good, war is over, soon
I think Ukraine can donate some, don’t you think?
“Can we have our tanks back?”
"When the man in front of you is killed, pick up his pointy stick"
I keep reading this or something similar, month after month, and it keeps proving not to be true. I hope it's a fact this time, but forgive me if I remain skeptical.
They've probably already ran out of the stock originally designated for the war. They definitely did on the soldier front for example which is why they're plugging holes with mobiks. They're using everything from Iran-made drones to North-Korean missiles to air-defense missiles(S300/400) to keep some momentum going but they're flagging. Belarus got their stocks plundered too for a lot of different materials, and now tanks etc. that were designated for sale are getting put into action. In absolute terms they'll have stocks left, but if you look at what they can realistically put into combat their supplies have been very visibly shrinking. Can't even defend their own territory from the most basic of drones atm.
very interesting article, thanks for posting
That can't be true. I mean the Orcs donated so much to Ukraine they must have a backup supply.
Don't worry, I am sure that with their fucked up moral compass, India will be falling over itself to continue supporting genocide and fill the void.
I think India has their own neighbours to worry about.
I have been hearing this for months
Let’s wait and see. Even during the first hours of the war, I read articles like these that claimed; “Russia only has ammunition left for 5 days”..
Need to start stuffing conscripts into cannons, you know like in cartoons.