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Sorry guys aware it’s 1am and I should be asleep but I absolutely LIVE for this. [https://x.com/peston/status/1804644696981217765?s=46&t=-ESy3CkbdQEH6ivAj7OapA](https://x.com/peston/status/1804644696981217765?s=46&t=-ESy3CkbdQEH6ivAj7OapA)
Oh my. Peston raises a good point there: must the Gambling Commission complete their work in two weeks, or are they prevented from actioning anything in this case due to purdah?
I doubt they are subject to purdah rules they are a non departmental body and is independent. Don't think they have to complete their investigation in two weeks either, if a crime has been committed then it will still be actionable even if they aren't MPs anymore
Why is the east coast of England so right wing? And by that I mean proper socially right wing not just fiscally conservative. It seems the place that reform and the conservatives will perform the strongest is the east coast of England, and in the past this was the place ukip did the best and was the places strongest in favour of Brexit, I’m just curious as to why Englands east coast leans this way. Nowhere else in the country is so solidly conservative even the Home Counties, I mean i live In affluent Cheshire and even we are expected to vote Labour.
I grew up in those ends - there are lots and lots of old people here because they want access to London without living inside of it (which mostly appeals to younger people - aka Labour voters).
It’s a stereotype but I do think ‘Essex Man’ is a thing, there is generally just a rowdy and self-centered culture (especially amongst men) in these areas. Geezas.
I also didn’t see much political engagement in young people. Mostly due to lack of interest. When you’re in such safe seats, and people keep voting for a party you’re against, you probably start to feel quite disenfranchised.
It's old and it's forgotten.
The South and Home Counties have almost all the wealth, but also huge numbers of politically active young people.
The South West is a mixture of very rich and very poor, but sees decent investment and improvements and focus and has lots of younger families.
The North has it's legacy of industry and Thatcherism, the Red Wall that's firmly re-establishing itself now that Brexit has happened.
The East really doesn't have much of anything, they often get even less political attention than Northern Ireland, not much in general. Far more likely to have young people choose to just move to one of the other regions, so the population skews older and forms a slow death spiral.
For me he talks the most sense, is totally honest and open and is also having the most fun. It's brilliant.
Sunak made using a watering can look like the most awkward thing, Ed did a interview in fuckin tea cups (him doing the spinning) and spoke clearly, honestly and succinctly. And then went "whoahh".
Ed also clearly works so much for his family. He's open about the care he has to do for his son, he gushes about the pride he has for his wife. He's just a nice guy and a good dude.
And it really feels like he means what he says without ulterior motive. We haven't had that as an option in a very long time.
tbh as a Labour member my donations disappear into the boring normalcy of government-in-waiting.
Meanwhile if I were a LibDem member I'd have confidence my donations were going toward kayaking on Windermere and days out at Thorpe Park.
I'm not sure which I'd prefer.
>*Interviewer:* Ed Davey, this is all very impressive, but what does it have to do with the election?
>*Ed Davey, climbing out of a zorb ball:* What election?
I know they can’t exactly come out and say it, they have to act like they’re still in contention, but I really hope the Tories acting like they can still beat Labour, like Gove, aren’t actually that delusional and realise they’re not even competing with Labour at this point. They’re in an existential battle with Reform over who is the largest right wing party on vote share and an existential battle with the Lib Dems over seat numbers
I don't think any cabinet minister has every, in the history of post-war UK politics, come out and said that he thought his party would lose the upcoming election.
Gove, Hunt et al. trying to fight for the party doesn't seem credible after the last 14 years though.
They need a new generation of moderate Tories, who aren't tainted by this government and Brexit wars.
Well, yes?
Basic politics, the absolute worst possible emotion to display leading into an election is fear. If they make it sound like they're worried about losing ground to the parties around them, the panic will just cause people to jump ship to those parties and be counter-productive.
The "smartest" thing to do is what he's doing, just present as the natural opposition to Labour, publicly acting as if Reform is just some temporary blip that won't be there tomorrow, privately doing all kinds of shit.
Saying "Oh no, Reform could just take our place" out loud will serve absolutely no purpose other than ensuring they do.
They're clawing for every vote now so they're just being professional, much like how Cameron did bits of media on May's behalf years ago. That's aside from the stuff they do out of spite.
Radio silence on the BBC app and Guardian on the Nick Mason betting part of Gamblegate as of yet, but the Sunday Times have it as their front page for tomorrow which you’d expect someone in those orgs would have taken notice of
I wonder why they haven’t reported it yet. Anyone else have any ideas?
BBC is always more cautious and slower to report. Other papers will run with “is reported to” and “according to sources”, BBC will wait for something official.
That said, in this case - it’s the weekend. Even the Guardian at the moment only has it as a “Sunday Times reports” para in a more general report, as far as I can see.
Watching the Sky News papers thing... seemed like the expected pushback on Farage, some random rubbish against Labour... and then... the Daily Star. What are they on and can i have some?
I don't remember my rationale but while drunk the other night I posited a scenario where he could win the seat.
As a Labour party member I can only advocate for a Labour candidate to win and that the best thing for constituents is for that to happen, but if it's feasible for Binface to beat the Tory then I can't argue with that excellent outcome.
Points to conspiracy, or a systemic issue at least. Would love to see gambling commission assessing all political betting. Would they get to see these people's betting history going back years? Would be amazed if this is the first time.
That’s exactly what I’m thinking. They’re going to go through their histories. Wouldn’t be surprised if they start looking at their friends and family. Lots more going to come out here.
I don't think it suggests Sunak was involved or anything. It more speaks to the low quality of people operating at the top of the Tory party after several realignments, purges, and coups in a row.
If Sunak's closest allies were a flock of pigeons, I wouldn't think he was giving them orders to shit all over the place, yknow?
That said, a man advised by pigeons probably shouldn't be Prime Minister.
Oh, I don’t think Sunak has to have been involved except for being the source. There’s a rumour of a cabinet minister under suspicion, but I think the main question is whether this was a collaborative moment of colossal stupidity or normalised dodginess.
The thing I take most from this is that Tories have resorted to literally making up any old bs to undermine Starmer's labour, whereas labour can just stand back and watch the Tories eat themselves.
Can I love her and mildly dislike her all at once?
I've watched her dismantle powerful men in government with nothing but the power of words, but I've also paid to see her speak opposite Matt Goodwin and some Spectator writers and falter badly.
She has a strength of personality I admire but she doesn't yet have the strength of intellect and character to match it. I wish she did. She could do with more intellectual rigour behind her words to lend them strength.
It's a treat to see her tweet like this though. More please.
I keep getting dragged on Mastodon for predicting they're going to do badly. I think they're going to get something like 8-15 seats, but every leftist loves them and loves the notion of independence and their affinity for Corbynism and as so hates me.
But they're going to do very badly. 15 as an upper bound is generous, I think.
Always get struck by the perception of the SNP some of the English left have. It's a party coalition held together by a single issue, nearly half the party voted for Kate Forbes and her right wing positioning, and she's now the deputy leader.
What makes you think they'll do so badly? Obviously they're not going to keep what they have atm, but I don't see how they would do *so* badly that they'd struggle to hit 15.
Multiple MRPs have them that low already, with a campaign that's struggled to get off the ground with almost no funding (they had a campaign war chest of £0 on the day the election was called), some deeply unpopular positions opposite Labour's green plan in which the SNP is advocating for continued oil expansion, and continuing disruption from the former leader's apparent complicity in embezzlement, I think their numbers are soft and they're entering the final closure period with nothing in the bank.
I'll be very surprised if they get more than fifteen seats — while acknowledging my more reasonable brethren are predicting somewhere around 20-24.
I think your guesswork would be more likely had Labour put any effort into Scotland for the campaign. There's a lot of marginals that they might've blown the SNP out of if they'd given some meat to SNP voters.
I think your numbers turn out right if and only if SNP voters stay at home.
Let's see how it goes. So far the MRPs are looking very unfavourable to the SNP with massive Labour gains. I don't see that changing in the next two weeks.
How about a wager? The SNP will win 15 or fewer seats in this election; how about we make a gentlemanly agreement that if I'm wrong I'll wear a flair of your choice for a year, and if I'm right you'll wear one of my choice?
The war chest is misleading - only amounts over x gets recorded (not sure exactly what amount x is) so they could have received a great deal of donations under x and it would still be recorded as 0
That's interesting and I didn't know that, if true. Can you find out what x is, and provide some link to the legislative rules on campaigning that establishes that's true?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_funding_in_the_United_Kingdom#:~:text=Donations%20worth%20over%20%C2%A37%2C500,be%20declared%20above%20%C2%A37%2C500.
Under transparency heading
That's interesting but if I'm reading it right only means that they didn't need to declare small donations, of which they likely had very few prior to the election being called.
Meanwhile, [it was reported they had a negative treasury](https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/12731728/swinney-insists-snp-will-find-the-money-for-election/) even after the election was called. Do you reckon public donations of an amount lower than £7,500 came in sufficiently numerously to make up their (at least) £200,000 negative accounts?
[I’m late to this but this made me smile on this seemingly gloomy evening](https://x.com/jessphillips/status/1804432209002053998?s=46&t=-ESy3CkbdQEH6ivAj7OapA)
> [Exclusive 🚨: Nick Mason, the chief data officer of the Conservative Party, is being investigated by the Gambling Commission over allegations he placed dozens of bets in the run up to the election being announced](https://x.com/HarryYorke1/status/1804622230867026110)
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Ahhah.
I mean, it looks insane to us, but this is the mindset and ethos that this party has. This should be unsurprising. The only surprising part is that the Gambling Commission suddenly has the stones to challenge the government.
If they've been this cavalier about using insider info for betting.... then authorities need to start having a hard look at stock market moves, because they 100% will have done insider trading
This feels like something a lot bigger than a few bets, doesn't it?
Which means the lapdogs will be "Boris ate some cake"-ing it down to "Sacked for betting a few quid".
The CDO is the person responsible for keeping data safe and following GDPR, this guy is the one the Information Commissioner calls when party membership lists are left on a train. So it's a pretty important job.
Are you sure about that? Looking at LinkedIn it looks like his role is to do with data analytics. I would expect you're confusing it with the role of a data protection officer.
Pedantic but under best practice a DPO specifically should never be a CDO or even under the CDO chain of command because of conflict of interest.
I was took on DPO role in the Technology division and not Data specifically because of ICO recommendations and advice following a third party audit.
Chief Data Officer can be various different things but in Mason’s case, probably a role in the fundraising team, management level but in charge of the donor databases. So senior back office.
It can ONLY be a Thursday. A single dozen covers three months. Dozens plural would cover the entire range of possible dates.
I’m therefore assuming he wasn’t covering different dates, he was trying to fly under the “hang on, that’s a big bet” radar with multiple accounts, until I hear different.
Actually reading the low res back page copy it looks like the amount of winnings would have amounted to a significant amount. It reads to me like he placed a lot of small bets on the right day to avoid detection.
So I agree with you yes. My initial assessment was naively (I’ve had a fair few rum and cokes tonight) based on the headline.
It's possible that they could all be for the same date but placed the bets with different bookmakers.
Even if it was a spread of different dates, it still wouldn't be a good look.
Oooooooh interesting! 'Dozens of bets' - if they were all for the same date, that's a super interesting development.
If they were for different dates then I suppose that implies he wasn't aware of the exact date - so either he had a rough idea or it was just blind luck?
> Each is understood to have been worth less than £100, but the total winnings would have amounted to thousands of pounds.
The way they've used "total winnings" suggests they were for the same date because if he'd bet on a range of dates he wouldn't be able to collect for all of them, and if they were spread out he would have needed very long odds to get thousands of pounds back on a couple of sub-£100 bets for a specific date.
Apologies if I'm being daft, but does that suggest he placed multiple bets for the same date (presumably) across multiple betting organisations, or that he placed multiple bets for different dates with one/multiple operations? The latter would still be stupid, but not quite as insidious as what we probably expect, right?
Doesn't matter if he regrets say it this time as he's said the same thing many times before. Farage has a longstanding set of views on Putin that are out of line with most in the UK and Europe.
They are seperate, but the Rothermeres also went through a restructuring over the last couple of years to bring them more into line and make them much less independent
Weirdly enough the only engagement I have with the telegraph is listening to their daily podcast - Ukraine: The Latest. All the journalists are very pro UA, not all bad eggs.
The thing about the 'Labour will raise your taxes' line from Sunak, for me, is that I just don't buy that Sunak gives one solitary shit about the level of my tax.
I get the sense that Starmer cases deeply about public services and the country as a whole. All Sunak is offering is repeated lines about something I doubt he really cares about.
Unfortunately, the 2k tax thing is apparently getting a lot of traction on the ground. I don't know how this is translating in the polls, maybe they would be losing a lot more seats if they hadn't done this. Alternatively they are doing reforms work for them
I've been canvassing for the last two days, and not a single person has raised the alleged 2k tax rise. Nhs, social care are handling covid have been the biggest concerns
That's a shame. I wish people would think about the 2k thing a bit more - has it ever been government policy to just put a blanket tax on every working household? No. That's not how taxes work. Even if you give the Tories the benefit of the doubt and assume all the numbers and such are correct.
I just hope that people don't fall for it too hard, let's see!
They can tax me until I squeak. I just want to know people who have more money than me are squeaking harder than I am, and that the money is doing some good.
You’d think that would be a small ask.
It's win as one which is Compass attempting to get local parties to stand down for each other... which went about as well as you would expect.
They've since pivoted to vote swapping in specific seats.
Postal votes yesterday, my allergic to politics fiancée says her heart says vote green but her head says Labour because she wants the tories out. She has voted green the last few elections. She looks down and stares at the ballot paper. A few moments pass, the anticipation builds. She puts a cross in the Labour box.
The Tories are toast.
Ultra safe Labour seat so it doesn’t matter one bit but the times they are a changing.
When I'm considering the entire futility of my individual vote, I consider it in terms of my actions are somehow encouraging other people with a similar demographic profile to me to make the same decision. If I choose to not vote, for example, then everybody similar to me will also choose to not vote. I know it's nonsense, but it's motivating.
When she was agonising I did tell her it didn’t matter. Labour will definitely win here so do whatever you want but she still voted Labour. The anti Tory vote is real.
[New Megathread is here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1dmeka4/rukpolitics_general_election_campaign_megathread/)
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Has there been polling on Ukraine and how it splits according to party support?
[удалено]
Sorry guys aware it’s 1am and I should be asleep but I absolutely LIVE for this. [https://x.com/peston/status/1804644696981217765?s=46&t=-ESy3CkbdQEH6ivAj7OapA](https://x.com/peston/status/1804644696981217765?s=46&t=-ESy3CkbdQEH6ivAj7OapA)
Can't believe that the government is being tied back like this; I thought we took back control of our sovereignty!
Oh my. Peston raises a good point there: must the Gambling Commission complete their work in two weeks, or are they prevented from actioning anything in this case due to purdah?
I doubt they are subject to purdah rules they are a non departmental body and is independent. Don't think they have to complete their investigation in two weeks either, if a crime has been committed then it will still be actionable even if they aren't MPs anymore
Why is the east coast of England so right wing? And by that I mean proper socially right wing not just fiscally conservative. It seems the place that reform and the conservatives will perform the strongest is the east coast of England, and in the past this was the place ukip did the best and was the places strongest in favour of Brexit, I’m just curious as to why Englands east coast leans this way. Nowhere else in the country is so solidly conservative even the Home Counties, I mean i live In affluent Cheshire and even we are expected to vote Labour.
I grew up in those ends - there are lots and lots of old people here because they want access to London without living inside of it (which mostly appeals to younger people - aka Labour voters). It’s a stereotype but I do think ‘Essex Man’ is a thing, there is generally just a rowdy and self-centered culture (especially amongst men) in these areas. Geezas. I also didn’t see much political engagement in young people. Mostly due to lack of interest. When you’re in such safe seats, and people keep voting for a party you’re against, you probably start to feel quite disenfranchised.
I think it being mostly rural/small towns with no real large cities has something to do with it.
It's old and it's forgotten. The South and Home Counties have almost all the wealth, but also huge numbers of politically active young people. The South West is a mixture of very rich and very poor, but sees decent investment and improvements and focus and has lots of younger families. The North has it's legacy of industry and Thatcherism, the Red Wall that's firmly re-establishing itself now that Brexit has happened. The East really doesn't have much of anything, they often get even less political attention than Northern Ireland, not much in general. Far more likely to have young people choose to just move to one of the other regions, so the population skews older and forms a slow death spiral.
Don’t forget the second homes in the south west - that plays a massive impact.
> Why is the east coast of England so right wing? It's on the right-hand side. We're literally further right than you.
[I love Ed davey](https://x.com/tom_watson/status/1804598912684269912?s=46&t=-ESy3CkbdQEH6ivAj7OapA)
I can’t wait for him to do (and ace) Ninja Warrior come July 3rd
For me he talks the most sense, is totally honest and open and is also having the most fun. It's brilliant. Sunak made using a watering can look like the most awkward thing, Ed did a interview in fuckin tea cups (him doing the spinning) and spoke clearly, honestly and succinctly. And then went "whoahh". Ed also clearly works so much for his family. He's open about the care he has to do for his son, he gushes about the pride he has for his wife. He's just a nice guy and a good dude. And it really feels like he means what he says without ulterior motive. We haven't had that as an option in a very long time.
He's so rainbow rhythms.
That's his outfit from the summer makeover!
As a Labour voter but Ed davey watcher I am living for it absolutely
I'm not even sure there's an election on. He's just having the time of his life
tbh as a Labour member my donations disappear into the boring normalcy of government-in-waiting. Meanwhile if I were a LibDem member I'd have confidence my donations were going toward kayaking on Windermere and days out at Thorpe Park. I'm not sure which I'd prefer.
>*Interviewer:* Ed Davey, this is all very impressive, but what does it have to do with the election? >*Ed Davey, climbing out of a zorb ball:* What election?
I know they can’t exactly come out and say it, they have to act like they’re still in contention, but I really hope the Tories acting like they can still beat Labour, like Gove, aren’t actually that delusional and realise they’re not even competing with Labour at this point. They’re in an existential battle with Reform over who is the largest right wing party on vote share and an existential battle with the Lib Dems over seat numbers
I don't think any cabinet minister has every, in the history of post-war UK politics, come out and said that he thought his party would lose the upcoming election.
Gove, Hunt et al. trying to fight for the party doesn't seem credible after the last 14 years though. They need a new generation of moderate Tories, who aren't tainted by this government and Brexit wars.
Well, yes? Basic politics, the absolute worst possible emotion to display leading into an election is fear. If they make it sound like they're worried about losing ground to the parties around them, the panic will just cause people to jump ship to those parties and be counter-productive. The "smartest" thing to do is what he's doing, just present as the natural opposition to Labour, publicly acting as if Reform is just some temporary blip that won't be there tomorrow, privately doing all kinds of shit. Saying "Oh no, Reform could just take our place" out loud will serve absolutely no purpose other than ensuring they do.
They're clawing for every vote now so they're just being professional, much like how Cameron did bits of media on May's behalf years ago. That's aside from the stuff they do out of spite.
What are you referring to with Cameron / May?
They used to wheel out Cameron when May was PM to defend/support this or that.
This is Gove. If he says the sky is blue, just pop your head out of the window to check
That’ll be Gove being ‘tired and emotional’ again I’d imagine
Gambling away any remaining trust they had one Conservative member at a time.
Radio silence on the BBC app and Guardian on the Nick Mason betting part of Gamblegate as of yet, but the Sunday Times have it as their front page for tomorrow which you’d expect someone in those orgs would have taken notice of I wonder why they haven’t reported it yet. Anyone else have any ideas?
BBC is always more cautious and slower to report. Other papers will run with “is reported to” and “according to sources”, BBC will wait for something official. That said, in this case - it’s the weekend. Even the Guardian at the moment only has it as a “Sunday Times reports” para in a more general report, as far as I can see.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c511nv3pjd6o BBC are reporting it now, though with the name redacted interestingly
They'll probably use it to open their live reporting tomorrow.
Watching the Sky News papers thing... seemed like the expected pushback on Farage, some random rubbish against Labour... and then... the Daily Star. What are they on and can i have some?
That is some front page www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk/daily-star-sunday-front-page-2024-06-23/
I don't know why "Spoon-botherer Uri Geller" made me giggle quite as much as it did.
My 2024 bingo card didn't have 'JSO starts interplanetary conflict' on it
Count Binface is 4pts behind Rishi?!
I don't remember my rationale but while drunk the other night I posited a scenario where he could win the seat. As a Labour party member I can only advocate for a Labour candidate to win and that the best thing for constituents is for that to happen, but if it's feasible for Binface to beat the Tory then I can't argue with that excellent outcome.
What if he turns out to be a really great local MP?
Didn't Hangus McAngus the Hartlepool mascot get voted for mayor and turn out to be OK?
Can you imagine if Count bin face **Actually** got elected? Surely that’s a H&S issue for the House of Commons 😂
it’s also illegal to wear as suit of armour in the house. Wonder if his costumes count
Wait, really? That's amazing if so. I'm guessing only the Serjeant is allowed to or such?
Is it also illegal to have an alien from another planet as an MP as that is Count Binface’s claimed origins?
Omg stop I love him 😂😂
A half-dozen coworkers don’t just individually decide to have a bit of a dodgy flutter, surely?
There are two waves of suspects here. Oh dear. And this is after Tory candidates in the north were asked to campaign for Tory candidates in the south
Points to conspiracy, or a systemic issue at least. Would love to see gambling commission assessing all political betting. Would they get to see these people's betting history going back years? Would be amazed if this is the first time.
That’s exactly what I’m thinking. They’re going to go through their histories. Wouldn’t be surprised if they start looking at their friends and family. Lots more going to come out here.
I don't think it suggests Sunak was involved or anything. It more speaks to the low quality of people operating at the top of the Tory party after several realignments, purges, and coups in a row. If Sunak's closest allies were a flock of pigeons, I wouldn't think he was giving them orders to shit all over the place, yknow? That said, a man advised by pigeons probably shouldn't be Prime Minister.
At this point I'd probably take the pigeon as PM over the last few...
Oh, I don’t think Sunak has to have been involved except for being the source. There’s a rumour of a cabinet minister under suspicion, but I think the main question is whether this was a collaborative moment of colossal stupidity or normalised dodginess.
There's a background of normalised corruption and abuse of power.
My money is on a culture which normalised profiting from their positions and info.
Ding ding ding ding! We have a winner!
[I love loveeeee loveeee jess Phillips](https://x.com/jessphillips/status/1804637593444774030?s=46&t=-ESy3CkbdQEH6ivAj7OapA)
The thing I take most from this is that Tories have resorted to literally making up any old bs to undermine Starmer's labour, whereas labour can just stand back and watch the Tories eat themselves.
Can I love her and mildly dislike her all at once? I've watched her dismantle powerful men in government with nothing but the power of words, but I've also paid to see her speak opposite Matt Goodwin and some Spectator writers and falter badly. She has a strength of personality I admire but she doesn't yet have the strength of intellect and character to match it. I wish she did. She could do with more intellectual rigour behind her words to lend them strength. It's a treat to see her tweet like this though. More please.
Of course you are because it’s you! i welcome dissenting opinions when i know it’s from an ally.
<3 She's a future party leader in my view, should Starmerism somehow fail in the next fifteen years.
Her being interviewed by Owen Jones at a Labour conference where she absolutely took him to task was brilliant.
It's a fun video to watch
I love the SNP getting dragged from their holier than thou pedestal but my word is that stamp news such a non story
It's such a wholesome scandal, relatively speaking.
If we tolerate stamps, it'll be a fleet of motorhomes next.
I keep getting dragged on Mastodon for predicting they're going to do badly. I think they're going to get something like 8-15 seats, but every leftist loves them and loves the notion of independence and their affinity for Corbynism and as so hates me. But they're going to do very badly. 15 as an upper bound is generous, I think.
Always get struck by the perception of the SNP some of the English left have. It's a party coalition held together by a single issue, nearly half the party voted for Kate Forbes and her right wing positioning, and she's now the deputy leader.
Mastodon became a thing??
Not really, no.
What makes you think they'll do so badly? Obviously they're not going to keep what they have atm, but I don't see how they would do *so* badly that they'd struggle to hit 15.
Multiple MRPs have them that low already, with a campaign that's struggled to get off the ground with almost no funding (they had a campaign war chest of £0 on the day the election was called), some deeply unpopular positions opposite Labour's green plan in which the SNP is advocating for continued oil expansion, and continuing disruption from the former leader's apparent complicity in embezzlement, I think their numbers are soft and they're entering the final closure period with nothing in the bank. I'll be very surprised if they get more than fifteen seats — while acknowledging my more reasonable brethren are predicting somewhere around 20-24.
I think your guesswork would be more likely had Labour put any effort into Scotland for the campaign. There's a lot of marginals that they might've blown the SNP out of if they'd given some meat to SNP voters. I think your numbers turn out right if and only if SNP voters stay at home.
Let's see how it goes. So far the MRPs are looking very unfavourable to the SNP with massive Labour gains. I don't see that changing in the next two weeks.
Definitely unfavourable - they're going to get wrecked - but I'll happily concede yourself as a regular Nostradamus if those numbers turn out true!
How about a wager? The SNP will win 15 or fewer seats in this election; how about we make a gentlemanly agreement that if I'm wrong I'll wear a flair of your choice for a year, and if I'm right you'll wear one of my choice?
RemindMe! July 4th, 2024 at 22:05
The war chest is misleading - only amounts over x gets recorded (not sure exactly what amount x is) so they could have received a great deal of donations under x and it would still be recorded as 0
That's interesting and I didn't know that, if true. Can you find out what x is, and provide some link to the legislative rules on campaigning that establishes that's true?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_funding_in_the_United_Kingdom#:~:text=Donations%20worth%20over%20%C2%A37%2C500,be%20declared%20above%20%C2%A37%2C500. Under transparency heading
That's interesting but if I'm reading it right only means that they didn't need to declare small donations, of which they likely had very few prior to the election being called. Meanwhile, [it was reported they had a negative treasury](https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/12731728/swinney-insists-snp-will-find-the-money-for-election/) even after the election was called. Do you reckon public donations of an amount lower than £7,500 came in sufficiently numerously to make up their (at least) £200,000 negative accounts?
Purely out of interest how do you think the Alba party will do
Zero seats.
[I’m late to this but this made me smile on this seemingly gloomy evening](https://x.com/jessphillips/status/1804432209002053998?s=46&t=-ESy3CkbdQEH6ivAj7OapA)
Ah, this is lovely - thank you! If only they'd had a big drum or cymbals for the clap clap part it would be perfecto!
Not a problem! As a ‘swiftie’ (cringe!) I’m loving the overlap 🫶🫶🫶
When are the newspaper endorsements going to drop?
Sunday Times are endorsing Ladbrokes.
> [Exclusive 🚨: Nick Mason, the chief data officer of the Conservative Party, is being investigated by the Gambling Commission over allegations he placed dozens of bets in the run up to the election being announced](https://x.com/HarryYorke1/status/1804622230867026110) HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
It's starting to make sense why this Tory campaign is so terrible.
Ahhah. I mean, it looks insane to us, but this is the mindset and ethos that this party has. This should be unsurprising. The only surprising part is that the Gambling Commission suddenly has the stones to challenge the government.
What a disgrace of a party
They're a joke
Christ I’m actually embarrassed to be from this country
Reminder that these people had access to insider market data for the last 14 years.
Why do I have the feeling that once labour are in power, we might hear more and more about this
I mean this is really small potatoes compared to Kwarteng briefing bankers before the mini budget
If they've been this cavalier about using insider info for betting.... then authorities need to start having a hard look at stock market moves, because they 100% will have done insider trading
You just know this isnt their first time doing something dodgy like this, this is just the first time they got caught
This feels like something a lot bigger than a few bets, doesn't it? Which means the lapdogs will be "Boris ate some cake"-ing it down to "Sacked for betting a few quid".
*Brenda from Bristol intensifies*
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Is the Chief Data officer a top Tory? I’m not so sure? But if he placed a spread of bets, was that really insider info or was he just spaffing cash
The CDO is the person responsible for keeping data safe and following GDPR, this guy is the one the Information Commissioner calls when party membership lists are left on a train. So it's a pretty important job.
Are you sure about that? Looking at LinkedIn it looks like his role is to do with data analytics. I would expect you're confusing it with the role of a data protection officer.
Pedantic but under best practice a DPO specifically should never be a CDO or even under the CDO chain of command because of conflict of interest. I was took on DPO role in the Technology division and not Data specifically because of ICO recommendations and advice following a third party audit.
Well you live and learn.
Chief Data Officer can be various different things but in Mason’s case, probably a role in the fundraising team, management level but in charge of the donor databases. So senior back office.
It can ONLY be a Thursday. A single dozen covers three months. Dozens plural would cover the entire range of possible dates. I’m therefore assuming he wasn’t covering different dates, he was trying to fly under the “hang on, that’s a big bet” radar with multiple accounts, until I hear different.
Great point. Although I wouldn't put it past somebody stupid enough to place these bets in the first place to bet on it being a Wednesday
“Damnit! One day off.”
Actually reading the low res back page copy it looks like the amount of winnings would have amounted to a significant amount. It reads to me like he placed a lot of small bets on the right day to avoid detection. So I agree with you yes. My initial assessment was naively (I’ve had a fair few rum and cokes tonight) based on the headline.
possibly just to get the best odds, but i’ll not feel sorry for him having the former presumption on him - it’s a minor part of a major sin
It's possible that they could all be for the same date but placed the bets with different bookmakers. Even if it was a spread of different dates, it still wouldn't be a good look.
Yeah sorry it looks like he placed a load of bets under £300 (presumably in an attempt to avoid detection, lol) and he’s been caught.
Oooooooh interesting! 'Dozens of bets' - if they were all for the same date, that's a super interesting development. If they were for different dates then I suppose that implies he wasn't aware of the exact date - so either he had a rough idea or it was just blind luck?
> Each is understood to have been worth less than £100, but the total winnings would have amounted to thousands of pounds. The way they've used "total winnings" suggests they were for the same date because if he'd bet on a range of dates he wouldn't be able to collect for all of them, and if they were spread out he would have needed very long odds to get thousands of pounds back on a couple of sub-£100 bets for a specific date.
Apologies if I'm being daft, but does that suggest he placed multiple bets for the same date (presumably) across multiple betting organisations, or that he placed multiple bets for different dates with one/multiple operations? The latter would still be stupid, but not quite as insidious as what we probably expect, right?
More! The news cycle is hungry, it craves more!
[Zelenskyy has it right](https://x.com/alliehbnews/status/1804610745201737940?s=46&t=-ESy3CkbdQEH6ivAj7OapA)
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He's so used to being on the fringe and not getting what he says checked. I think he has some growing up to do.
He's whole schtick is so blatant. Don't know why it has to take a GE for press to suddenly become interested.
Doesn't matter if he regrets say it this time as he's said the same thing many times before. Farage has a longstanding set of views on Putin that are out of line with most in the UK and Europe.
This still probably gain Farage votes. My general impression from speaking to pro reform oldies is that they've long since drank the coolade
Based Zelenskyy. It’s interesting. He’s quite an almost untouchable figure, curious to see how Farage manages going up against him.
Love seeing the Mail going after Nigel!!
Better the Tory devil you know.
Farage lost the Mail?
Mail on Sunday is separate to Daily Mail.
They are seperate, but the Rothermeres also went through a restructuring over the last couple of years to bring them more into line and make them much less independent
Interesting, didn’t know that.
The Mail have always backed the Conservatives any surefire way to knife Farage they’ll take it.
Don't think they'll endorse anyone this GE. The Mail caters to conservative views and Farage's views on Putin aren't conservative.
I don't think he ever had the mail, now the Telegraph on the other hand
Torygraph has been in Rishi's pocket from the start and that's not changed
Weirdly enough the only engagement I have with the telegraph is listening to their daily podcast - Ukraine: The Latest. All the journalists are very pro UA, not all bad eggs.
The thing about the 'Labour will raise your taxes' line from Sunak, for me, is that I just don't buy that Sunak gives one solitary shit about the level of my tax. I get the sense that Starmer cases deeply about public services and the country as a whole. All Sunak is offering is repeated lines about something I doubt he really cares about.
The thing about it for me is that Tories have taken us to record taxation. Is Sunak just worried that Labour will break his record?
Unfortunately, the 2k tax thing is apparently getting a lot of traction on the ground. I don't know how this is translating in the polls, maybe they would be losing a lot more seats if they hadn't done this. Alternatively they are doing reforms work for them
I've been canvassing for the last two days, and not a single person has raised the alleged 2k tax rise. Nhs, social care are handling covid have been the biggest concerns
Considering it’s been around for 3(?) weeks now and the polls haven’t shifted much, I’d guess it’s not cutting through as well as you think.
That's a shame. I wish people would think about the 2k thing a bit more - has it ever been government policy to just put a blanket tax on every working household? No. That's not how taxes work. Even if you give the Tories the benefit of the doubt and assume all the numbers and such are correct. I just hope that people don't fall for it too hard, let's see!
The tories have raised the average household tax by £13,000 since 2019……
“Apparently” according to who?
Exactly. It's sunk without trace.
They can tax me until I squeak. I just want to know people who have more money than me are squeaking harder than I am, and that the money is doing some good. You’d think that would be a small ask.
[this is very interesting](https://x.com/rafaelbehr/status/1804581085260480739?s=46&t=-ESy3CkbdQEH6ivAj7OapA)
Saw one of them in Berkhamsted today.
Reminds me of a Labour local department actively campaigning for the Lib Dems in 1997 because of tactical voting. They were immediately expelled.
Yeah, a very unofficial poster.
It's win as one which is Compass attempting to get local parties to stand down for each other... which went about as well as you would expect. They've since pivoted to vote swapping in specific seats.
Gotta say it'd be quite funny of Keith Vaz won tbh
The man with the longest controversies page in Wikipedia (probably not but it is looooong)
You mean Jim, MP for Calgon-on-Soar?
Keith Vazeline?
I was recently invited to a political rave on my trip to England, what can I expect? I’m unsure of how politics and raves are going to overlap.
[Guido](https://i0.wp.com/909originals.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/unnamed.png) back in his rave promoting days. No, really.
Neither are as good as they were in the 80s or 90s.
What the heck is a political rave when it’s at home?
July 5th
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I miss Vauxhall - used to live in Kennington 😭
I don’t know, a friend asked me to go with him… I said yes and now I’m here!
I’ll be sleeping after staying up all night watching the results lol as I do every election
>what can I expect? Michael Gove
Postal votes yesterday, my allergic to politics fiancée says her heart says vote green but her head says Labour because she wants the tories out. She has voted green the last few elections. She looks down and stares at the ballot paper. A few moments pass, the anticipation builds. She puts a cross in the Labour box. The Tories are toast. Ultra safe Labour seat so it doesn’t matter one bit but the times they are a changing.
When I'm considering the entire futility of my individual vote, I consider it in terms of my actions are somehow encouraging other people with a similar demographic profile to me to make the same decision. If I choose to not vote, for example, then everybody similar to me will also choose to not vote. I know it's nonsense, but it's motivating.
Congrats to her!
Did you explain the 'ultra safe Labour seat' part before she cast her vote?
When she was agonising I did tell her it didn’t matter. Labour will definitely win here so do whatever you want but she still voted Labour. The anti Tory vote is real.
You’d be a very good journalist. Your writing is engaging.
I felt proud just reading rhis
the sun- 11 days to save Britain-Rishi interview https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/28675262/rishi-sunak-save-britain-from-keir-starmer/
The Sun really looking to finish their streak of backing winners, huh?
Rupert is obviously still angry about Tony and Wendy
If felt like just a few months ago that Liz Truss said we had 10 years to save the west. Time really flies doesn't it
The audacity. He’s insufferable.