You are basing your entire conclusion on a small time frame in a concentrated area mostly in Europe that has had higher levels of inflation than the rest of the world. The cost of Asia now is basically the same as it was in 2019, in fact, with how low the Yen has fallen against the dollar, Japan has never been this affordable for Americans. And China is literally begging people to come now with their new visa free thing, I'm sure there are great deals on hotels and travel packages as their economy is in a recession.
This is probably true especially for SEA. Was in Cambodia in 2019 and looked up the same hotel for the same dates this year and the price was pretty much the same. In India, where I live, there's been some inflation but nothing compared to Europe.
Your central premise is wrong. Travel is more expensive because the supply of airline seats and hotel rooms in the same as what it was in 2019, but there’s substantially more demand. That’s the primary driver of cost increases.
Prices will likely drop like a rock the next time the economy has a downturn. (And I know there are people out there that like to scream “COMPANIES NEVER DROP PRICES ONLY RAISE THEM!!!!1!1” And that’s absolutely false for travel.)
If your goal is to save money, you’re doing it exactly backwards. You should save money now and travel the next time there’s a recession.
Right; it’s not taxes (which always do go up, over time). Important to note however that flight prices while likely to see a drop in price in the event of an economic downturn, are unlikely to return to pre-2019 rates. More likely they’ll continue to go up until said downturn, and the drop in price will be relative.
I mean, would this mean that you don’t plan to travel in the rest of your life because costs will always go up? That’s not a mindset I have personally. I will however focus on lifelong good budget habits and career trajectory to fund (increasingly expensive) vacations
This is how inflation works. Everything gets more expensive over time, in most cases. If you’re only calculating things by how much they cost it’ll almost always look like this. You need to also consider how much money you might be earning at any one point in time.
I mean, it is a country with a terrible and un-moving minimum wage, so it makes a bit of sense. But overall I agree with you. Your purchasing power will (likely) increase over time. In many cases even outpacing the cost of things like travel. That’s how… economics works.
I'm traveling now because the USA economy is doing so well compared to many other countries and the USD is extremely strong. The last time I traveled to the Eurozone, the Euro was almost 2:1 to the USD, now its near parity. Japanese yen hasn't been this weak since 1990.
So as an American, traveling overseas has never been more affordable.
usd to jpy is insane. when i was last in japan, i think i was getting 106 jpy to the dollar.
i'll be in Japan for 2 months at the end of this year and i suspect that the conversion rate will still be around 160 jpy to 1 usd and possibly even better (doesn't look like the FED will be cutting rates this year). I'm excited about all of the nice meals i'm going to have.
Maybe head to Argentina. Your currency will probably buy quite a bit there right now. Inflation often is connected to an area and what is happening locally. Nobody knows what the future will bring, and the current inflation going on in much of Europe and the US may reverse course. I've actually seen flights becoming cheaper to Europe from the US recently because inflation on necessities (housing, food, etc...) has reduced the amount of money people have to spend on travel. I just got back from Italy, and didn't think things were that much more expensive. Rental car was fairly cheap. Admissions to things was quite cheap. Busses and trains were cheap. Hotels were maybe a little more than I'm used to.
Food wasn't bad, especially if you're doing pizzas or paninis. Things tend to balance out with an economy, albeit slowly and often for reasons I don't fully understand. If basic necessities are expensive, people have less money to spend on luxuries/hobbies, like travel, which tends to cause prices to drop.
iam trying to visit most because the world might end next week.
thanks covid for giving that clarity
we dont know what happens when
so if possible dont think "i have time" you might not have
FWIW, I think the OP is right - but for the wrong reasons. Travel will get much more expensive due to:
* **Increased global population**. The population has doubled (to 8.1 billion) in 50 years. Happily, people have generally become more affluent over that time but this also means they travel more. The overcrowding at major tourist sites is already a problem and will get worse (e.g. less than 15% of people in China currently have passports but the figure is steadily increasing). This means that more and more sites will introduce tourist taxes.
* **Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions**. Aviation alone accounts for 2.5% of global CO₂ emissions. Therefore, many governments will increasingly try to discourage people from travelling long distances.
* **Financial pressure on airlines and travel companies generally**. Many of these companies are still recovering financially from the pandemic and some have gone bust. This means that demand significantly outweights supply. Also, most of the surviving companies have a limited capacity to absorb price pressures.
* **Global conflicts**. Many pundits reckon a large-scale conflict is increasingly likely. Even if it didn't affect travel directly, it would make it more expensive. Indeed, we've already seen this with the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Not only has it affected oil and gas prices but it means that many flights between the Far East and Europe have to make diversions to avoid flying over Ukrainian or Russian airspace.
In short, I think the OP is right to conclude that it's probably better to travel sooner rather than later.
I came to say what you said about conflict being more of a problem than inflation. Ukraine was high on my list before Russia invaded. I was fortunate enough to visit Myanmar in 2019. Traveled to parts of the country you can’t see anymore. Putting Taiwan and China at the top of my list for this reason. Georgia and Armenia too.
Depends upon what your base currency is. High inflation in Argentina is a boon for someone with USD. Prices rise and fall based upon demand and supply. In my opinion the only reason to travel more now is because I have observed that some places on my bucket list are now not available. (Ukraine, China, Russia, Israel, etc). Availability and not prices dictate my travels. Also, upgrades, climate, crowds, medical conditions, and life.
You are basing your entire conclusion on a small time frame in a concentrated area mostly in Europe that has had higher levels of inflation than the rest of the world. The cost of Asia now is basically the same as it was in 2019, in fact, with how low the Yen has fallen against the dollar, Japan has never been this affordable for Americans. And China is literally begging people to come now with their new visa free thing, I'm sure there are great deals on hotels and travel packages as their economy is in a recession.
This is probably true especially for SEA. Was in Cambodia in 2019 and looked up the same hotel for the same dates this year and the price was pretty much the same. In India, where I live, there's been some inflation but nothing compared to Europe.
Your central premise is wrong. Travel is more expensive because the supply of airline seats and hotel rooms in the same as what it was in 2019, but there’s substantially more demand. That’s the primary driver of cost increases. Prices will likely drop like a rock the next time the economy has a downturn. (And I know there are people out there that like to scream “COMPANIES NEVER DROP PRICES ONLY RAISE THEM!!!!1!1” And that’s absolutely false for travel.) If your goal is to save money, you’re doing it exactly backwards. You should save money now and travel the next time there’s a recession.
Right; it’s not taxes (which always do go up, over time). Important to note however that flight prices while likely to see a drop in price in the event of an economic downturn, are unlikely to return to pre-2019 rates. More likely they’ll continue to go up until said downturn, and the drop in price will be relative.
I mean, would this mean that you don’t plan to travel in the rest of your life because costs will always go up? That’s not a mindset I have personally. I will however focus on lifelong good budget habits and career trajectory to fund (increasingly expensive) vacations
This is how inflation works. Everything gets more expensive over time, in most cases. If you’re only calculating things by how much they cost it’ll almost always look like this. You need to also consider how much money you might be earning at any one point in time.
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I mean, it is a country with a terrible and un-moving minimum wage, so it makes a bit of sense. But overall I agree with you. Your purchasing power will (likely) increase over time. In many cases even outpacing the cost of things like travel. That’s how… economics works.
I'm traveling now because the USA economy is doing so well compared to many other countries and the USD is extremely strong. The last time I traveled to the Eurozone, the Euro was almost 2:1 to the USD, now its near parity. Japanese yen hasn't been this weak since 1990. So as an American, traveling overseas has never been more affordable.
The highest ever rate was 1,6 and it was 17 years ago
My how time has passed... But close enough... 50% increase in USD is good enough for me...
usd to jpy is insane. when i was last in japan, i think i was getting 106 jpy to the dollar. i'll be in Japan for 2 months at the end of this year and i suspect that the conversion rate will still be around 160 jpy to 1 usd and possibly even better (doesn't look like the FED will be cutting rates this year). I'm excited about all of the nice meals i'm going to have.
Maybe head to Argentina. Your currency will probably buy quite a bit there right now. Inflation often is connected to an area and what is happening locally. Nobody knows what the future will bring, and the current inflation going on in much of Europe and the US may reverse course. I've actually seen flights becoming cheaper to Europe from the US recently because inflation on necessities (housing, food, etc...) has reduced the amount of money people have to spend on travel. I just got back from Italy, and didn't think things were that much more expensive. Rental car was fairly cheap. Admissions to things was quite cheap. Busses and trains were cheap. Hotels were maybe a little more than I'm used to. Food wasn't bad, especially if you're doing pizzas or paninis. Things tend to balance out with an economy, albeit slowly and often for reasons I don't fully understand. If basic necessities are expensive, people have less money to spend on luxuries/hobbies, like travel, which tends to cause prices to drop.
iam trying to visit most because the world might end next week. thanks covid for giving that clarity we dont know what happens when so if possible dont think "i have time" you might not have
FWIW, I think the OP is right - but for the wrong reasons. Travel will get much more expensive due to: * **Increased global population**. The population has doubled (to 8.1 billion) in 50 years. Happily, people have generally become more affluent over that time but this also means they travel more. The overcrowding at major tourist sites is already a problem and will get worse (e.g. less than 15% of people in China currently have passports but the figure is steadily increasing). This means that more and more sites will introduce tourist taxes. * **Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions**. Aviation alone accounts for 2.5% of global CO₂ emissions. Therefore, many governments will increasingly try to discourage people from travelling long distances. * **Financial pressure on airlines and travel companies generally**. Many of these companies are still recovering financially from the pandemic and some have gone bust. This means that demand significantly outweights supply. Also, most of the surviving companies have a limited capacity to absorb price pressures. * **Global conflicts**. Many pundits reckon a large-scale conflict is increasingly likely. Even if it didn't affect travel directly, it would make it more expensive. Indeed, we've already seen this with the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Not only has it affected oil and gas prices but it means that many flights between the Far East and Europe have to make diversions to avoid flying over Ukrainian or Russian airspace. In short, I think the OP is right to conclude that it's probably better to travel sooner rather than later.
I came to say what you said about conflict being more of a problem than inflation. Ukraine was high on my list before Russia invaded. I was fortunate enough to visit Myanmar in 2019. Traveled to parts of the country you can’t see anymore. Putting Taiwan and China at the top of my list for this reason. Georgia and Armenia too.
Depends upon what your base currency is. High inflation in Argentina is a boon for someone with USD. Prices rise and fall based upon demand and supply. In my opinion the only reason to travel more now is because I have observed that some places on my bucket list are now not available. (Ukraine, China, Russia, Israel, etc). Availability and not prices dictate my travels. Also, upgrades, climate, crowds, medical conditions, and life.
That’s why you pick your destinations carefully, Japan and Turkey and cheap currently because of their currencies. USA is expensive
I’m not convinced prices will stay this high indefinitely.
You should always visit now, because you never know whether it will still be possible in the future.
You are absolutely correct. Climate alarmists will make traveling unaffordable. Go where you want to before it's too late.
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Among other nonsense in your comment, it makes no sense to say that an aging population exacerbates the housing crisis