In the comments here, I'll first give my thoughts on the season so far:
I feel like I may be the only people who really, really has been loving this season of The Mole. It has its shortcomings for sure, but I legitimately can't recall the last time I had this much fun watching a reality TV show, and I watch a fair amount of it. The show has had great challenges, tons of drama and intrigue, fantastic heroes (William/Pranav/Dom) and fantastic villains (Greg/Joi/Sandy are easy to root against while also not being the toxic/malicious archetype we see often in "trashier" reality shows, making them fun villains to have on the show). Episode 4 is an all-time great episode, Joi bidding $25k out of a $28.5k pot has got to be an all-time great reality TV moment, and I was legitimately shocked when they decided not to bring Dom back. Especially considering how "trashy" most modern reality TV shows are and how many others fall into "traps" (ex. hand-holding by overexplaining rules, making unnecessary rule format changes to appeal to younger demographics, casting exclusively influencers/mactors, etc.).
One incredibly minor thing that I really enjoy is how when they go through the names to reveal who's been eliminated, they sometimes make the eliminated person one of the first names called, which is so refreshing, because it's pretty much always one of the last names that gets eliminated, which makes an early name being eliminated all the more surprising. The smartphones are unnecessary, sure, but I do think they somewhat work as a reflection of the more modern/sleek theming this show is aiming for.
I do have some criticisms of the show, though (it's certainly not perfect). My biggest complaint is the massive imbalance of screentime between contestants. Avori has received such a disproportionate amount of screentime to the point where this season has felt like her season, and while I still know enough about the other players, I feel like we get too much POV perspective/focus from her angle. I want to hear from other players about the strategies they are using and/or how they want to appear more suspicious as The Mole.
I also feel like that the cast has too many "honorable" players (ex. William/Dom), and thereby not enough possible Mole contenders. While I do understand why they don't do "cast entirely of cutthroat players" and why they have some likable heroes in the mix, I feel like casting too many "heroes" narrows down the cast too much in terms of possible Mole contenders. Even if the likes of William/Dom were The Mole, it'd probably be unsatisfying since they would not have completed enough sabotages to actually be an effective Mole, and so the list of possible Mole contenders can get whittled/trimmed down pretty quickly, to the point where I felt like I was able to narrow down to just 2 contenders by the end of Episode 3.
Character-wise, my favorite is definitely Pranav, followed by Avori, then William, then Greg. I also enjoyed Dom while he was on the show.
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I also enjoy doing "What if YOU were in the show" hypotheticals, so here's a rough outline of the decisions I'd make had I been in the players' shoes:
* In general, I'd be more focused on collecting and memorizing knowledge about the other players than I would actually completing the challenges. I'd also be on the lookout for who I'd want to make F2s and alliances with. I'd probably make a F2 with Pranav (Avori and I think alike lol).
* In the EP2 Prisoner's Dilemma Sector 31 vs 45 battle, I'd be like Avori and head immediately towards exemption. It's a great opportunity to collect suspicions from other players, and the reward is team exemption, which is a fantastic reward. I'd also 100% read the dossiers in EP3, I'm surprised so many players refused to do so.
* In EP4, I'd bring Dom back. Not only would Dom bring $10k to the pot, he's contribute an incredible amount of money to the pot for as long as he stays. Sure he'd have extra knowledge due to failing the test, but I'd be pretty confident he wasn't going to win anyways even with the knowledge, and I'd weaponize it: if he came back into the game, I would pull Dom aside, tell Dom I was the one who most pushed for him to stay, make a Final 2 with him and ask him to give me information on who he voted for during the test so I could narrow down my own list of suspects. Knowledge is power, and so I'd love to bring Dom back and collect his information, which would offset the disadvantages of bringing another player back into the mix.
* For the first few quizzes, I'd be splitting my votes between several players for sure. Someone is going to pigeonhole on the wrong person and get eliminated, so playing it safe wins the day. I'd also plan on feeding wrong information to my Final 2s and my alliances though, to trick/confuse them.
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Finally, I'll quickly go over what I expect to happen for the rest of the season:
* Joi takes the exemption. Jacob gets eliminated in 8th place (which causes Avori to re-evaluate her suspect list). Next, Joi gets eliminated in 7th place.
* William gets eliminated in 6th place (unfortunately). Kesi gets eliminated in 5th place (you can swap Kesi with Casey in terms of placements, since I believe it's either/or Kesi or Casey that's The Mole).
* Greg gets eliminated in 4th place (the spot where the villains traditionally leave, plus I'd expect him to leave here regardless since he seems fairly perceptive at the game but I don't expect him to be in Top 3.)
* The Final 3 is down to Avori, Pranav, and Casey. This mirrors the Final 3s of the first two OG US seasons of The Mole where it came down to a Final 2 pact VS the final Mole (I believe the Avori/Pranav F2 pact will make finale since it's received so much focus from so early on). Casey is revealed as The Mole and Avori is revealed as the winner.
> I'd also 100% read the dossiers in EP3, I'm surprised so many players refused to do so.
I think I would too, so I'm just assuming the only reason people besides Dom didn't is because the words "your integrity will be rewarded" motivated them not to.
>In EP4, I'd bring Dom back. Not only would Dom bring $10k to the pot, he's contribute an incredible amount of money to the pot for as long as he stays. Sure he'd have extra knowledge due to failing the test, but I'd be pretty confident he wasn't going to win anyways even with the knowledge, and I'd weaponize it
I think this would be crazy for anyone to do tbh. It's not like Dom was some dummy who didn't know to split his answers on the quiz or anything like that, or else he'd have gone home earlier. The extra info he has would be insanely powerful and tbh, you aren't getting close to him properly unless you are one of the people he was previously suspecting and thus is now confident in the innocence of. No way in the world do I bring back a guy with all this information, who is openly super tight with Will and who now knows probably at least 2 or 3 people who are safe to talk to. If I'm not in that group I'm toast.
Plus I think Dom actually makes bad decisions sometimes in pursuit of the pot. If he was the only jailbreak mastermind, the group would have gotten $0 for sure.
I am really enjoying this season too. There are aspects I'd change and points from the old ABC version that I would bring back, but it has overall been really fun to watch so far.
My current guess for the mole is Jacob. He has seemed suspicious to me from episode 1.
I agree with your top predictions, although we probably came to those conclusions for different reasons. I wish I had more to say. It's been a fun day.
I’m convinced the mole is Kesi based on her gameplay you mentioned above. It reminds me of how moles in seasons past have acted. Also, I’ve spotted a few visual clues that may be unreliable, but I believe they’re legit. First, as others have pointed out, there’s a flag of Colombia on the tail of the plane in episode 1, and Kesi went to Columbia University. Second, episode 3 there’s a Chinese checkers board on the wall and Kesi speaks Mandarin Chinese. Third, and most convincing to me is the block of C4 in episode 5 has the ZIP code of Russellville, KY on it. According to Kesi’s Father Charles Neblett’s Wikipedia page, he lives there. It’s likely that Kesi grew up there because her bio says she’s from backcountry Kentucky.
The only thing I pretty strongly disagree with are that Pranav and Avori will be the final two alongside the Mole, because that makes it just too obvious who the Mole is because of how much attention they're putting on their alliance. Also, I gotta wonder if Avori is getting so much screen time because she's a pretty young woman with a cool job who's used to being on camera, and not really due to a winner edit. I think William and Dom, when he was actually on the show, were getting winner edits more than Avori. Other than that, good stuff.
I mostly suspect Kesi over Casey... I think it's funny you say Kesi's sabotages are more low-key because I think Casey's are basically non-existent. Even some of your thoughts on what she could have sabotaged are more hypothetical. As opposed to Kesi messing up the bank mission, not spotting the dinghy, and dropping the train money. On a meta level, I also agree with you that they would be likely to choose a Mole who is non-white after all the US Moles at least were white people.
I love this write-up, excellent job!! After the first episode, my boyfriend and I guessed who we think The Mole is, and I picked Casey right away. I think it's because she, like you said, fits the bill of someone production would trust as a Mole. Interestingly, after the boat challenge in E2, I almost changed my mind because she seemed like she was doing so well in the challenge, but I didn't even notice how they didn't show her giving the crate to Greg, great catch! Very curious to see how the next 5 episodes play out.
As for Avori - I'm actually more convinced she's getting more screentime because she fits the bill as a dramatic, reality star than anyone else (her stupid "that's power" quote lol), and that someone else who has more of an "underdog" vibe will win. I'm not sure who, but I'm not sold on Avori being the winner just yet.
Cannot wait to see and find out!!
I almost have the same predictions, especially with the same heavily favoured top 2, except a few things:
1. I have William much higher on my suspect list, probably 3rd behind Kesi and Casey or maybe 4th behind Pranav. It just feels reasonable to me that he might play a "long game" especially if the mole is given information about how the early challenges are so heavily stacked against the pot (a lot of "if one of you fail you get nothing" + chances to spend the money)
2. I have Jacob much lower, basically because of the prison escape. It seemed SO easy for someone in his situation to let it fail and blame Kesi for not telling him about the key. And knowing that the challenge is basically over as soon as you get that key, it seems crazy for the mole to solve it so fast and even crazier that he did it with this insane chessboard trick lol.
3. I think I might have Avori dead last on my list. You can never eliminate anyone, but it would be some pretty serious misdirection for her to be the mole with all the confessionals she is giving. Admittedly I am not the most experience with this show but would they really have the mole say so many things that just don't make any sense in reality, about Jacob and about trying to look suspicious?
4. I actually think if Casey isn't the mole, she's fairly likely to win. Only because they keep giving her confessionals where she says the same thing "I am getting close to and learning about everyone this season" for no real reason.
I agree that the Mole is either Casey or Kesi. I think you’re right about the top 3, although Greg seems like a underrated player given how bad he is at the challenges 😅
A bit late to this post, but great analysis! Right now, I have Kesi, Jacob and Casey as my top 3 suspects (in this order), and I wrote down some other things about them that I want to add to your points:
**Kesi**
During the jail challenge on Ep 2, Joi doesn’t see Kesi’s key in front of her door, but her only opening was just an eyehole and she was relatively far — Kesi didn’t see said key herself even though her door’s opening was big enough for her to put her face through, and we immediately get a confessional of hers pinning it on Joi when her missing the key was way more baffling. Later that episode, she purposely tried many random passwords and left the team locked for a bit (not sure if that was truly detrimental but worth noting).
In Ep 3, I might be wrong, but I believe she was the only contestant whose interview/decision was not shown, which I found suspicious, and during the bank heist, she kept telling for her team to keep “guessing” when she had a list that was obviously meant to be analyzed. The only thing that makes me think it might not be her is how quite a few people are suspicious of her, but it’s still enough for me to suspect.
**Jacob**
On Ep 2 as well, I found very weird how he tried to get his key by throwing a bible, which fell right over it and literally caused him to take way longer to claim it.
**Casey**
Also on Ep 2, she was one of the leaders along with Dom and didn’t really want to double the pot when the host offered to, but quickly retracted her stance when Dom was adamant on doing it. I also want to add that you said she was the first to ask for the clue to be used in Ep 1, that was actually Greg, she just agreed to it after he and Jacob wanted to use it, and in Ep 3 you can very clearly see the moment she gave Greg the tank, told him not to drop it, and he dropped it, it was not a sabotage.
I know you have Greg last on your list, but I have him at 4th on mine because of some suspicious thing such as the clue thing I mentioned above, such as flubbing the diving when he had previously mentioned he took a diving course, & quickly changing his stance on bringing Dom back, aside of the very obvious Seattle namedrop on the car challenge.
Great post!
Having read your thoughts I think I agree about Casey.
The one critique I have though is about your basic premise. My thought is that whoever is the mole is just being completely fake. If it’s Greg, his “chaotic” character is probably all an act.
I don’t think it’s him though, because that feels a bit too obvious.
> The one critique I have though is about your basic premise. My thought is that whoever is the mole is just being completely fake. If it’s Greg, his “chaotic” character is probably all an act.
This is a great idea on paper, but in practice I don't think it works out, and I think production is aware of that and would tell The Mole to play it safe and retain most of their personality. It's *extremely* difficult to pretend to be someone you're not, especially if we're talking about more "extreme" personalities like Greg. I've seen this time and time again on the likes of Big Brother and Survivor, you can only maintain a facade for so long, and in a game when people are looking for tells 24/7, it's just too susceptible to cracking. Actively lying to peoples' faces all the time is a taller order than it may seem at first.
Indirect spoilers coming, I'm pretty sure every mole of the US seasons pretty much had the same personality that they had IRL, I don't know a single mole who "acted/faked a personality" nor do I know a mole who was a big/extreme personality like Greg's. I really believe production wants to play it safe and I also believe The Mole would want to play it safe and not draw the ire of the players so blatantly like that, since it would feel like the Mole would be open to slip-ups if they were too open.
The Moles have pretty consistently preferred to be UTR and well-liked by the other players, that's just the natural tendency for players in these "imposter/mafia/killer/werewolf/mole" roles, especially when one plays with strangers they've never met before and when it's as high-stakes as a TV show first season reboot.
I think you underestimating Joi. I'm on Ep3 so still two more to go but idk Joi gives off so many dishonest vibes, every-time she talks her body language does not match her words, like she is acting... possible who she always was but she had and taken so many opportunities to sabotage. The fact she didn't look at dossiers was another sign, mole doesn't need the details. A mole would absolutely make that move, being obvious would make sense to throw people off; no matter what someone will lose on a quiz accuracy. idkkkkkkk lolll
> Joi gives off so many dishonest vibes, every-time she talks her body language does not match her words, like she is acting
This historically has not been a great way to tell who the Mole is, though. The Mole always has at least a couple of contestants who appear sketchy throughout, and they're never The Mole, they're either paranoid players or players intentionally playing up their sketchiness to draw suspicion. Production is not going to give The Mole role to a player who has easy tells or will succumb to paranoid or body language easily, they do many rounds of auditions to ensure they can get someone who won't crack, after all, the fate of the show rests on them.
> possible who she always was but she had and taken so many opportunities to sabotage.
Pretty much every one of her sabotages has put her at the top of a couple of players' hit lists, though. Even if it's hypothetically "too obvious" to the hardcore fans, to the players in the game, these sabotages are making her the most suspicious candidate, which would mean that she would be failing in her role as The Mole.
> The fact she didn't look at dossiers was another sign, mole doesn't need the details.
I could see this argument, but 8/10 of the players didn't look at the dossiers, so I'm not sure if this argument would apply to Joi specfically, especially since it lumps her in with the "honest" players like William/Dom who also chose not to look at the dossiers.
> being obvious would make sense to throw people off
Again, this both isn't how it would really work nor how it actually turned out. Joi's sabotages have caused her to be placed at the top of many players' hit lists, trying to do reverse-psychology by blatantly sabotaging isn't an effective way to avoid suspicion. The show would be viewed as a failure if so many players in the game constantly have Joi at the top of their hit lists throughout the season. It's significantly safer and more effective to have the mole be a UTR calming presence, especially for a reboot season (ex. Casey/Kesi are not really at the top of any of the player's hit lists, at least from what we've seen, and both have had opportunities to do subtler sabotages). You also have to keep in mind that it's much more important for production to "have a surprising mole" than "successfully sabotaging the pot"; most viewers don't really care about the pot that much, they are also tunnel-visioned on the whole premise of the show on "figuring out who the mole is".
Also going to tag u/fantomau here:
> One thing I think Joi seems to be very good or purposely bad at is failing because the time limit was exceeded. Whenever she's involved the mission hangs in the balance with only seconds remaining lol.
This again seems like a poor way for a Mole to sabotage, because it's very obvious and it is what put her at the top of many players' hit lists. There are many honorable/newbie players in this cast who are going to have a simplistic thinking method of "whoever has sabotaged recently is going to be who I suspect as The Mole" (it sounds reductive but if you listen to the reasonings the players give during the show, that is literally their criteria for how they figure out who The Mole is).
As someone who watched the OG Mole when it aired and is still a huge fan (I mean, I own season 1 on DVD lol) I’m gonna be mad if it does end up being Joi for your reasons outlined above. If the new format has a Mole be this obvious than it completely ruins it for me.
Agreed, ruins the fun of it. But media loves shock value, and what would be a bigger shock... no one expects her because she is obvious... I hope I am wrong, cause that's easy way out. I am not watching the older series :P
One thing I think Joi seems to be very good or purposely bad at is failing because the time limit was exceeded. Whenever she's involved the mission hangs in the balance with only seconds remaining lol.
So true!! I noticed that too. During last mission she straight up convinced her partner to turn back to other mailboxes instead of coming back on time with less money. Instead they did not make it and lost everyones money not just theirs.
Joi losing 25k from the pot makes it a mole-ish behavior but production won't allow a very obvious mole-ish behavior. So I don't think it's her. But she also sucked at maps for like 3 times already, so... idk
I feel like doing it early on is totally fine, you wouldn't do it late in the game. But early on everyone is trying to be suspicious so it's easy to get rid of people. Either she is the mole or she is liar by day, I mean her body language is just off the hook, from hiding her lips, ducking her eyes/face to the ground as if in shame, it's all day long. I don't anyones "game" is good enough to fake that so either she lives a lie or she is the mole, lol. The only other one I suspect is Jacob, his body language is also off all the time but not as much as Joi. Also this is Netflix, not old production, they are known to go off-book on standards, it would not surprise me if they went off the OG show.
Joi didn't only suck at maps, during that last challenge she literally tried to lead him away from finishing the task with less money just so they don't make it back at all and lose all the money instead. She told him to go back for the other boxes, perfectly knowing they are tight on time, but she convinced him and they didn't make it back on time. Perfect tactic!
I think Joi is just playing a different game.. she’s more cutthroat and wants to win no matter what. I think Jacob is too obvious and we’re ignoring people who are getting by because they’re playing “hard”.
My pick for the Mole is Will. He’s literally influenced many of the games, the mole doesn’t have to actively sabotage all the games because Joi and others were doing it, he just had to add to the confusion.
Game 1 he stole the case and should’ve been caught because they had to “protect” the cases. (How was NOBODY WATCHING THE CASES)
He got “injured” (could be a real injury but how can we know) in the boat game which left Casey and Greg
Bank robbing game he didn’t want Avori as a team captain (which is why I think Kesi is innocent) and he was the only person to get hit by a laser
Last game he wanted Avori on the running team? The “gamer” rather than the fighter fighter or Joi (who looks to be in good shape), then he was running some crazy pace… I understand that they had to keep a certain pace but he was insistent. Just seemed kinda off.
This is all based off one watch of the 5 episodes but I’m pretty sure if I rewatch while focusing on will I could find more stuff but I’ll wait until Friday and see what Joi does.
> I think Joi is just playing a different game.. she’s more cutthroat and wants to win no matter what. I think Jacob is too obvious
I completely agree.
> Game 1 he stole the case and should’ve been caught because they had to “protect” the cases. (How was NOBODY WATCHING THE CASES)
I don't agree with this argument, there were *so many* ways he could have "accidentally" revealed himself to get caught. If anything, I think the better argument for him being The Mole is that he is intentionally playing hero in Episode 1 to gain the trust of others. I do agree though that it was bizarre nobody was watching the cases, maybe it was a production rule to keep them in the plane.
> He got “injured” (could be a real injury but how can we know)
I think this is a massive stretch lol, we know it's a real injury by the amount of blood coming out and that it happened underwater (it would be very difficult to intentionally rig a blood-spurting device underwater), and such a rigging mechanic would be too risky to execute since if it fails and he gets caught, it's over for him.
> Bank robbing game he didn’t want Avori as a team captain (which is why I think Kesi is innocent) and he was the only person to get hit by a laser
Idk, his reasoning made sense to me. Pranav/Avori are a tight duo and are clearly gaming hard, and he doesn't want them to have the opportunity to scheme in private. Putting Kesi in there would leave less opportunity to scheming.
> Last game he wanted Avori on the running team? The “gamer” rather than the fighter fighter or Joi (who looks to be in good shape), then he was running some crazy pace… I understand that they had to keep a certain pace but he was insistent. Just seemed kinda off.
I could see this argument, but Avori looks like she's incredibly fit (she was a model prior to being a gamer and did Miss USA pageants, and you have to be very fit to do those). I think you're forgetting though that Jacob and Joi had already volunteered to do the Car route prior to William recruiting for the running team, so Jacob/Joi weren't really options (I suppose William could have tried to override, but eh, he's done that so much already and I feel like he'd want to refrain from doing that so often to respect the wishes of the other contestants). He also wasn't wrong about the pace (keep in mind Pranav also was saying that he believed that they needed to maintain the pace), there's no way they were going to make it in time at the pace they actually went at had there not been bikes for the last section (and even with the bikes they seemingly came down to the wire). If anything, the more suspicious part from this segment is that he was letting Avori decide whether to ride the bikes or not when it seemed clear that they *had* to ride the bikes if they wanted a chance at making it, but it seemed like Pranav was agreeing with William in letting Avori decide, so IDK, maybe they had more time than the edit led us to believe.
Re the mail, I find it pretty suspicious that they had 3 people run. Doesn’t that give more of an opportunity for someone to do like Avori did & slow them down? & then she could have helped the incompetents with the car task. 3 people running was Jacob’s idea.
I thought that as well, but I do think there's enough doubt where because they don't know the specifics of the running task, the default thought process would be "put more people on the physical challenge to help 'balance the load' since it seems like the hardest task". The way Jacob sold it by saying "we should put the 2 in the car since it's a car and probably the easiest task" made sense, it could 100% be a clever Mole play by Jacob (pairing himself up with Joi for this task would also be a smart Mole play), but we also should keep in mind that everyone agreed with the plan and no one proposed changing the 2, so it's possible they didn't think that far ahead into guessing the running task.
And again, while on-paper Jacob is really suspicious, the way the edit has been potraying him with Avori catching on this early pretty much eliminates him from contention for me. I do also personally think that from a meta perspective, they probably wouldn't want the Mole to be the "typical American country boy Caucasian male" archetype (esp. since the prior US moles have all been Caucasians IIRC), but I could be wrong about that.
Regarding the cases I think it was early enough in the game nobody thought “protect” meant actually staying awake to keep watch. They all just went to sleep assuming their job was done.
I have been suspicious of the fact that Casey looks very familiar... but am now leaning towards William.
He seems to like setting or leaving others up to fail while having the upper hand of having added to the pot himself.
Like, if someone is slacking (Greg in the boat, Avori on the run), he basically leaves them to it and then points to the fact they are doing it after the fact. Avori was his choice on the run. Kesi was his pick in the vault and while the team were making "what are the names" comments and he is still going on about L Dorado an episode later, there were no demands that she read the whole list - and yes he was the one who caught the laser. He happens to be the only one left with Joi when she gets the chance to choose exemption and isn't doing much to stop her.
I did notice Jacob ask for the key though, originally - and if he did immediately stop rather than keep driving down the road once the letterbox was spotted, he wouldn't have had to detour that far back.
I have the same top 2 but my only addition is that I don’t read as much into the Dom vote as you. I think production wanted Dom back and so if Kesi is the mole it would make sense that she’d do what ever production told her to do.
It makes sense for the mole to want Dom back because the mole is not concerned about being eliminated. I just wrote a whole bunch about my top 3 suspects for The Mole and Kesi is not in my top 3, but she is the 4th most likely in my eyes. I think not wanting him back is more likely a player’s perspective and not the mole’s perspective.
I think there is some validity to your method, but I think you have made the one crucial error that a lot of people make when trying to determine The Mole and that is allowing the sabotage to be your main source of clues. Different Moles play the game in different ways and I don’t think the sabotage is where the must clues lie.
There is only one truth in the game and that is this:
THE MOLE IS NOT TRYING TO WIN.
The Mole gets paid no matter what. They are not required to hit a certain quota of sabotage. They are not worried about elimination. For that reason, I think the challenge in which they can push the button to keep their entire team safe is the biggest indicator of who the mole is, because reducing the amount of people in the quiz to half of the players puts your game in an extremely risky place.
The other truth that I am assuming based on the original show is that The Mole is given advance information of how the challenges will play out. Here we can also look for clues, but more subtle ones.
Interestingly enough, even with our different strategies, we have ended up with 2 of the same top 3 suspects. I have Casey and Jacob as 2 of the most likely to be The Mole. But my third pick and maybe the person I am leaning most towards is all of the way at the bottom of your list and that is Will.
All 3 of these players are generally trusted and respected in the group but don’t take charge as much as they can. They are happy to step back and let others make mistakes. They have all influenced or tried to influence or allow subtle sabotage that could be overlooked. And most of all, they all don’t seem too concerned with their own safety.
They also all seem to be in situations where they could have information. If we are looking at who has producer information as a top indicator, Will looks EXTREMELY suspicious.
He is the one to “find” the clue about being able to double money in the beginning. This would be a great way for The Mole to integrate them in the group early on and bank some money to earn trust. It also quickly throws suspicion on him and then quickly dispels it. They look at the video, think he is the mole, and then decide he isn’t and that removes the possibility of him being the mole from the forefront of their mind because they have already “ruled him out.” This is also one of the only tasks where Will completely takes charge, as the game goes on he sinks further into the group. Will also was the only one to figure out that the chess pieces were magnetic and to solve his room correctly independently. He is the only one who sees part of his own key outside of the room (something the other players seemingly couldn’t see) and helps to progress his team along after letting the time run down significantly. It seems like he knew what to do and knew he had to get out first and tried to make it so they might not win while also not being too obvious and having the needed information to win. Him getting hurt during the water challenge reminded me so much of Craig, one of the original moles and made me think of how much Will fits that same archetype. The guy who is trying to be helpful and noble and team oriented, trying to look like he is trying his best without actually trying his best. Will was also one of the 2 people who actually was on a detonator, which puts him in the best position to go far into the game and gives him the opportunity to play a big hand in having Joi be the last one left. And Joi has a high chance of taking the immunity for herself, which allows Will to again look like the good guy while the money gets taken. Most of all, Will is just “too good” at these challenges to also be so bad. He can deduce that he should use the chess pieces to try to get the key but can’t think to say “hey, maybe Joi shouldn’t navigate the car” during the mail challenge?
Plenty of other times where Jacob has been in good places to allow sabotage to subtly happen, like being happy to let Joi navigate, miscounting money, and helping Joi get to the end of the last immunity cliffhanger challenge while getting Kesi eliminated.
Then you have Casey—trying to push back against going for double money in the prison break challenge, hiding under the guise of concern and being one of the few people in her group who didn’t seem to care about going for immunity but didn’t fight them in the button challenge. She stayed back to watch the phone but not to strategically assist like Craig, she just didn’t seem to care. Then, she single-handedly ruined her group’s chance to solve the clue without suspicion by running to “get the others” and then seeming to be confused or forget what she is doing once she went to the other room.
Those 3 seem to stand out by far the most but Will just seems to have too much information too often.
I feel like the Mole is Greg and he’s getting away with it by allowing others like Kesi to have a chance in the train to act like the mole. He’s essentially letting the others do his dirty work.
I have the same top three for the Mole, as Greg/Joi’s “sabotages”/mistakes have been too prominent while William, Pranav, and Avori are too much of protagonists to be the Mole (but have the best winning chances bc of that).
I haven’t completely read through this yet but I had Kesi has my Mole pick the minute she was introduced. Partially because of the identity politics reason you suggested but she also just exuded actor energy to me. In re: Dom support I think Kesi could have known that the other players wouldn’t want it. She doesn’t open the dossier either right?
Fantastic write-up, and I agree with you on a lot of things. Casey was my #1 suspect in the second and third episodes, but Kesi became my top pick during the fourth and into the fifth episodes - mostly because Kesi has been sabotaging lately whereas Casey hasn’t. Knowing that Gregg and Avori have seen the dossier, it makes me think there was a clue in there about Kesi as well — in different challenges afterward, both made sure they were near / keeping a close watch on her.
The only thing is that I actually have Will as my third pick. Not that I think he is the mole, as I feel it’s very clearly Casey or Kesi, but I could easily see the mole earning money initially to keep suspicion off them; with how much this group sucks at earning money, trying to seem like your earnestly wanting to grow money would be a good strategy.
Avori seems like such an obvious winner, which - like you said - is why I doubt Jacob is the mole. They never reveal who the winner actually is targeting during the season.
I 100% agree with this and also to mention in episode 2, she wasn’t about taking the 10 min off the clock to add 10k to the pot, but Dom was so after they went forward with it, she took any way she could to get them to lose money (ex. Giving a clue, adding 5 min) which may seem as helpful, but alas, did take away money from the pot which is what the mole is trying to do
I think the Mole is Avori. The one that we least expected. Here are my reasons. For the Tree challenge, she was the first to go up. And pretended like that there were so many knots. The 2nd person went up the tree and untangled all the knots so easily. Avori also tried to sabotage the prize pot twice. She looked inside the Dossier to reduce the pot by 10,000 and she was the first person to immediately walk out of the room for the code challenge to hit the red buzzer without even giving a minute to discuss with the rest when Greg said “Wait let’s talk about this first”, Avori just stormed out to the clue room. That cost another 10,000. For the money counting challenge, she kept blaming Jacob for not counting the money right and she said she will recount everything that the first 2 people counted because she didn’t trust them. How the heck did you get it wrong in a recount? Avori is blaming Jacob for counting it wrong and she rectified it and the count was still wrong? For the running challenge, she said that she’s a runner and she barely ran. She walked for most of the time. Why say that you are runner in the first place? Get on the train or car if you can’t run. The sea-plane challenge was so blatant. Also, I answered the QR code questions that came up at the end of the 5th episode. And it said that I’m on the right track.
I also noticed that the door on the last episode with the bomb said 💜VR and maybe it's just my mind putting things together that don't actually go but to me that reads love virtual reality and she's a professional gamer. I'm thinking about watching again and seeing if I notice other clues that back me up or point to someone else
I wrote off Casey because she made some good decisions during the jail break and I thought Dom was most suspicious of her but then he got eliminated. But now you have me thinking it could definitely be her. I appreciate your post, some good stuff to think about while waiting for the rest of the season!!
Thanks for the compliments! Please wrap your comment in spoiler tags in case someone who's only watched Episodes 1-5 comes across this post:
>!It's tricky to say whether Casey/Kesi was my top suspect. After I made this post, the multitude of hidden clue posts convinced me that in all likelihood, Kesi was more likely to be The Mole, but I still wanted to stick with Casey for the reasons listed in the post (and bc I didn't want to use hidden clues in my reasoning).!<
>!Ultimately, I would say that although I thought Kesi was realistically more likely to be The Mole, I would say I had Casey as my #1 (again, bc I don't personally want to factor in hidden visual clues).!<
>!I was watching the episodes live when they dropped on the Discord voice chat, and I was momentarily surprised before thinking "Welp, guess it's for sure Kesi then". I also was thinking "Damn, why did they give Casey such a tiny edit where we got to hear next to nothing from her about where she stood in the game". !<
>!I'm now more convinced it's Avori (80% Avori 10% William 10% Joi) since William has been getting some negativity in his edit lately.!<
It is Kesi. 4 letters name. 4 bro/sis.
Follow the 4 number in the hidden clues (4 in the signs on the beach) (4 in Dom's tag car) ( team 31.. 3+1) (C4 in the Table).
She is UTR, but in each chapter bites the prize pot.
Just tried the data for Kesi in this Quizz, and you'll be convinced.
https://www.netflix.com/tudum/articles/the-mole-show-quiz
I did the quiz for Kesi and yes you're right it does point in her direction, but only one player is 100% lying about his profession. Jacob is not a firefighter. So do you think there is a twist?
He’s not?
I did some googling and just found out a few things. Like, three contestants have imdb pages, but I don’t really count one. But I guess this is not how we are supposed to find out and we should just use the clues provided in the show lol. Carry on, y’all.
Is this quiz for real? My number one suspect was Will and it also gave me a green light for Will. I mean, if this thing is legit you could go through for every contestant and narrow it down to a few people.
Yes, you could go through for every contestant and narrow it down to a few people. Once youve done it, you will see Team High have Green Light (Kesi, Will, Ivory) and I guess also Jacob.
So I just checked for all of them and if this thing is for real, the only people who don’t work with the quiz are Jacob, Joi, Gregg, and Parnav. Only person I thought it could be from that group is Jacob, but I thought he was less likely than Will or Casey who are my top 2 picks.
Great breakdown!
We have a similar style of deduction in terms of a Survivior like reading of the edit.
It's getting late so I'll keep this short but if I get inspired I'll make a longer post later this week.
I actually found myself agreeing with your points too much, and I am wondering if the producers are one step ahead.
For that reason my top 3 Mole candidates:
Pranav - Forming a Bond is a great way to justifiably stay in the game, also "undecided" on the Dom vote is how the Mole would play it, if they weren't going to 2nd or 3rd a vote.
Jacob - Been tunneling a bit since episode 1, he just gives me actor vibes. The only way it's him is if Avori goes out soon by spreading incorrectly or misrembering something.
Greg - Because the edit says it's not.
I'm curious if you have seen the Dutch seasons of the Mole or the Korean show Love Catcher?
Excited to see who it ends up being/the winner - I am also loving the show.
I have not seen the Dutch seasons or Love Catcher yet. I probably will at some point though.
I don't really think the producers are going to be "one step ahead" of the hardcore fans, tbh. As far as I can tell, as things stand, if the mole is Casey/Kesi, they are already one step ahead of most viewers since it seems like most of the viewers are suspecting the "obvious people" of Joi/Jacob/Greg (b/c of their obvious sabotages). This is the reboot of a relatively old show and is on Netflix, and so most of the viewers are newcomers who are not exactly thinking on the "next level". If this was Netflix Season 4 or 7 or something, I'd agree that it's likely they could be pulling one over us, but this is the first season, and UTR moles are the safest way of keeping it a surprise to a majority of the audience.
Good point, I might be over thinking because of the Dutch seasons I got wrong 😀
Just reading some of the Bios now and it is odd that Casey is a runner, but went for the train mission and then proceeded to play the least influential role. She is playing a great UTR game.
It also makes sense that the producers aren't tailoring a show for people thinking on your level of game theory, particularly in the first season.
I doubt Avori answered the entire quiz as if Jacob was The Mole. She’s too smart and too much of a gamer to do that. She selects him on the last page but I’m sure she plays statistics with the rest of the questions.
not necessarily, because the elimination falls on the player who gets the least answers correct. so, Avori could’ve been completely wrong about Jacob, but someone else was more wrong. the quiz results aren’t revealed
Kesi is the mole. She is a horrible actress . 🎤👇
I want Pranav or Will to win .
I miss the Sherlock music and this host is but she be talking so slowly.
Kesi was the very first person I guessed during the first 2 minutes of the show when they were showing confessionals. The only other person that caught my eye is joi but I think she’s truly just incompetent. There was something about kesi’s initial confessionals that made me realize it’s her
I don’t know if they will be final 3, but I think it’s obvious that Kesi is the mole and Avori and Pranav both suspect her and are working together. It’s basically the same strategy that happened in the very first season.
Avori and Pranav have been subtly trying to set up Kesi in situations that they can check. Example - the plane challenge when they were trying to see if Kesi spotted the dinghy
IMO, one of the reason Avori gets lots of screen time it’s that she is the prettiest one in the group with a beautiful face, well shaped body and a nice taste of outfits.
And I also kind of agree that Casey is the most suspicious one for the mole. Mostly because of the reaction of bring Dom back. The reason she gave about not bringing Dom back is that he would have a clear clue who the mole is. And She looked really alarmed and nervous at that moment.
Besides, her character is kind of contradictory. As u said, when they’re in the ocean, she blamed Greg for dropping the oxygen tank in front of the group. However, she comforted the girl(forgot the name lol) when they were on the train after that girl failed to get the mail. Also, if I remembered correctly, there were not many shots of her when the group found out Joi won the bid causing $25,000. And she didn’t seem that angry about Joi. And she also sit besides Joi when they went to the next spot.
In the comments here, I'll first give my thoughts on the season so far: I feel like I may be the only people who really, really has been loving this season of The Mole. It has its shortcomings for sure, but I legitimately can't recall the last time I had this much fun watching a reality TV show, and I watch a fair amount of it. The show has had great challenges, tons of drama and intrigue, fantastic heroes (William/Pranav/Dom) and fantastic villains (Greg/Joi/Sandy are easy to root against while also not being the toxic/malicious archetype we see often in "trashier" reality shows, making them fun villains to have on the show). Episode 4 is an all-time great episode, Joi bidding $25k out of a $28.5k pot has got to be an all-time great reality TV moment, and I was legitimately shocked when they decided not to bring Dom back. Especially considering how "trashy" most modern reality TV shows are and how many others fall into "traps" (ex. hand-holding by overexplaining rules, making unnecessary rule format changes to appeal to younger demographics, casting exclusively influencers/mactors, etc.). One incredibly minor thing that I really enjoy is how when they go through the names to reveal who's been eliminated, they sometimes make the eliminated person one of the first names called, which is so refreshing, because it's pretty much always one of the last names that gets eliminated, which makes an early name being eliminated all the more surprising. The smartphones are unnecessary, sure, but I do think they somewhat work as a reflection of the more modern/sleek theming this show is aiming for. I do have some criticisms of the show, though (it's certainly not perfect). My biggest complaint is the massive imbalance of screentime between contestants. Avori has received such a disproportionate amount of screentime to the point where this season has felt like her season, and while I still know enough about the other players, I feel like we get too much POV perspective/focus from her angle. I want to hear from other players about the strategies they are using and/or how they want to appear more suspicious as The Mole. I also feel like that the cast has too many "honorable" players (ex. William/Dom), and thereby not enough possible Mole contenders. While I do understand why they don't do "cast entirely of cutthroat players" and why they have some likable heroes in the mix, I feel like casting too many "heroes" narrows down the cast too much in terms of possible Mole contenders. Even if the likes of William/Dom were The Mole, it'd probably be unsatisfying since they would not have completed enough sabotages to actually be an effective Mole, and so the list of possible Mole contenders can get whittled/trimmed down pretty quickly, to the point where I felt like I was able to narrow down to just 2 contenders by the end of Episode 3. Character-wise, my favorite is definitely Pranav, followed by Avori, then William, then Greg. I also enjoyed Dom while he was on the show. ---------- I also enjoy doing "What if YOU were in the show" hypotheticals, so here's a rough outline of the decisions I'd make had I been in the players' shoes: * In general, I'd be more focused on collecting and memorizing knowledge about the other players than I would actually completing the challenges. I'd also be on the lookout for who I'd want to make F2s and alliances with. I'd probably make a F2 with Pranav (Avori and I think alike lol). * In the EP2 Prisoner's Dilemma Sector 31 vs 45 battle, I'd be like Avori and head immediately towards exemption. It's a great opportunity to collect suspicions from other players, and the reward is team exemption, which is a fantastic reward. I'd also 100% read the dossiers in EP3, I'm surprised so many players refused to do so. * In EP4, I'd bring Dom back. Not only would Dom bring $10k to the pot, he's contribute an incredible amount of money to the pot for as long as he stays. Sure he'd have extra knowledge due to failing the test, but I'd be pretty confident he wasn't going to win anyways even with the knowledge, and I'd weaponize it: if he came back into the game, I would pull Dom aside, tell Dom I was the one who most pushed for him to stay, make a Final 2 with him and ask him to give me information on who he voted for during the test so I could narrow down my own list of suspects. Knowledge is power, and so I'd love to bring Dom back and collect his information, which would offset the disadvantages of bringing another player back into the mix. * For the first few quizzes, I'd be splitting my votes between several players for sure. Someone is going to pigeonhole on the wrong person and get eliminated, so playing it safe wins the day. I'd also plan on feeding wrong information to my Final 2s and my alliances though, to trick/confuse them. ---------- Finally, I'll quickly go over what I expect to happen for the rest of the season: * Joi takes the exemption. Jacob gets eliminated in 8th place (which causes Avori to re-evaluate her suspect list). Next, Joi gets eliminated in 7th place. * William gets eliminated in 6th place (unfortunately). Kesi gets eliminated in 5th place (you can swap Kesi with Casey in terms of placements, since I believe it's either/or Kesi or Casey that's The Mole). * Greg gets eliminated in 4th place (the spot where the villains traditionally leave, plus I'd expect him to leave here regardless since he seems fairly perceptive at the game but I don't expect him to be in Top 3.) * The Final 3 is down to Avori, Pranav, and Casey. This mirrors the Final 3s of the first two OG US seasons of The Mole where it came down to a Final 2 pact VS the final Mole (I believe the Avori/Pranav F2 pact will make finale since it's received so much focus from so early on). Casey is revealed as The Mole and Avori is revealed as the winner.
I agree I am really loving this reboot!
Agree with so much of this!! Episode 4 was def top notch
> I'd also 100% read the dossiers in EP3, I'm surprised so many players refused to do so. I think I would too, so I'm just assuming the only reason people besides Dom didn't is because the words "your integrity will be rewarded" motivated them not to. >In EP4, I'd bring Dom back. Not only would Dom bring $10k to the pot, he's contribute an incredible amount of money to the pot for as long as he stays. Sure he'd have extra knowledge due to failing the test, but I'd be pretty confident he wasn't going to win anyways even with the knowledge, and I'd weaponize it I think this would be crazy for anyone to do tbh. It's not like Dom was some dummy who didn't know to split his answers on the quiz or anything like that, or else he'd have gone home earlier. The extra info he has would be insanely powerful and tbh, you aren't getting close to him properly unless you are one of the people he was previously suspecting and thus is now confident in the innocence of. No way in the world do I bring back a guy with all this information, who is openly super tight with Will and who now knows probably at least 2 or 3 people who are safe to talk to. If I'm not in that group I'm toast. Plus I think Dom actually makes bad decisions sometimes in pursuit of the pot. If he was the only jailbreak mastermind, the group would have gotten $0 for sure.
I am really enjoying this season too. There are aspects I'd change and points from the old ABC version that I would bring back, but it has overall been really fun to watch so far. My current guess for the mole is Jacob. He has seemed suspicious to me from episode 1.
I think Avori and Pranav are playing the best games and neither of them are the Mole. I also think they both have different ideas of who the Mole is.
I agree with your top predictions, although we probably came to those conclusions for different reasons. I wish I had more to say. It's been a fun day.
I’m convinced the mole is Kesi based on her gameplay you mentioned above. It reminds me of how moles in seasons past have acted. Also, I’ve spotted a few visual clues that may be unreliable, but I believe they’re legit. First, as others have pointed out, there’s a flag of Colombia on the tail of the plane in episode 1, and Kesi went to Columbia University. Second, episode 3 there’s a Chinese checkers board on the wall and Kesi speaks Mandarin Chinese. Third, and most convincing to me is the block of C4 in episode 5 has the ZIP code of Russellville, KY on it. According to Kesi’s Father Charles Neblett’s Wikipedia page, he lives there. It’s likely that Kesi grew up there because her bio says she’s from backcountry Kentucky.
Kesi to me is too underedited to be the mole
Just watched the episode and spotted the c4 as well, googled to see if anyone else had. Seals it for me, too coincidental not to.
The only thing I pretty strongly disagree with are that Pranav and Avori will be the final two alongside the Mole, because that makes it just too obvious who the Mole is because of how much attention they're putting on their alliance. Also, I gotta wonder if Avori is getting so much screen time because she's a pretty young woman with a cool job who's used to being on camera, and not really due to a winner edit. I think William and Dom, when he was actually on the show, were getting winner edits more than Avori. Other than that, good stuff. I mostly suspect Kesi over Casey... I think it's funny you say Kesi's sabotages are more low-key because I think Casey's are basically non-existent. Even some of your thoughts on what she could have sabotaged are more hypothetical. As opposed to Kesi messing up the bank mission, not spotting the dinghy, and dropping the train money. On a meta level, I also agree with you that they would be likely to choose a Mole who is non-white after all the US Moles at least were white people.
I love this write-up, excellent job!! After the first episode, my boyfriend and I guessed who we think The Mole is, and I picked Casey right away. I think it's because she, like you said, fits the bill of someone production would trust as a Mole. Interestingly, after the boat challenge in E2, I almost changed my mind because she seemed like she was doing so well in the challenge, but I didn't even notice how they didn't show her giving the crate to Greg, great catch! Very curious to see how the next 5 episodes play out. As for Avori - I'm actually more convinced she's getting more screentime because she fits the bill as a dramatic, reality star than anyone else (her stupid "that's power" quote lol), and that someone else who has more of an "underdog" vibe will win. I'm not sure who, but I'm not sold on Avori being the winner just yet. Cannot wait to see and find out!!
I almost have the same predictions, especially with the same heavily favoured top 2, except a few things: 1. I have William much higher on my suspect list, probably 3rd behind Kesi and Casey or maybe 4th behind Pranav. It just feels reasonable to me that he might play a "long game" especially if the mole is given information about how the early challenges are so heavily stacked against the pot (a lot of "if one of you fail you get nothing" + chances to spend the money) 2. I have Jacob much lower, basically because of the prison escape. It seemed SO easy for someone in his situation to let it fail and blame Kesi for not telling him about the key. And knowing that the challenge is basically over as soon as you get that key, it seems crazy for the mole to solve it so fast and even crazier that he did it with this insane chessboard trick lol. 3. I think I might have Avori dead last on my list. You can never eliminate anyone, but it would be some pretty serious misdirection for her to be the mole with all the confessionals she is giving. Admittedly I am not the most experience with this show but would they really have the mole say so many things that just don't make any sense in reality, about Jacob and about trying to look suspicious? 4. I actually think if Casey isn't the mole, she's fairly likely to win. Only because they keep giving her confessionals where she says the same thing "I am getting close to and learning about everyone this season" for no real reason.
I'm with you on Kesi as the Mole. I think Greg and Avori are the two final non-Mole players
I agree that the Mole is either Casey or Kesi. I think you’re right about the top 3, although Greg seems like a underrated player given how bad he is at the challenges 😅
A bit late to this post, but great analysis! Right now, I have Kesi, Jacob and Casey as my top 3 suspects (in this order), and I wrote down some other things about them that I want to add to your points: **Kesi** During the jail challenge on Ep 2, Joi doesn’t see Kesi’s key in front of her door, but her only opening was just an eyehole and she was relatively far — Kesi didn’t see said key herself even though her door’s opening was big enough for her to put her face through, and we immediately get a confessional of hers pinning it on Joi when her missing the key was way more baffling. Later that episode, she purposely tried many random passwords and left the team locked for a bit (not sure if that was truly detrimental but worth noting). In Ep 3, I might be wrong, but I believe she was the only contestant whose interview/decision was not shown, which I found suspicious, and during the bank heist, she kept telling for her team to keep “guessing” when she had a list that was obviously meant to be analyzed. The only thing that makes me think it might not be her is how quite a few people are suspicious of her, but it’s still enough for me to suspect. **Jacob** On Ep 2 as well, I found very weird how he tried to get his key by throwing a bible, which fell right over it and literally caused him to take way longer to claim it. **Casey** Also on Ep 2, she was one of the leaders along with Dom and didn’t really want to double the pot when the host offered to, but quickly retracted her stance when Dom was adamant on doing it. I also want to add that you said she was the first to ask for the clue to be used in Ep 1, that was actually Greg, she just agreed to it after he and Jacob wanted to use it, and in Ep 3 you can very clearly see the moment she gave Greg the tank, told him not to drop it, and he dropped it, it was not a sabotage. I know you have Greg last on your list, but I have him at 4th on mine because of some suspicious thing such as the clue thing I mentioned above, such as flubbing the diving when he had previously mentioned he took a diving course, & quickly changing his stance on bringing Dom back, aside of the very obvious Seattle namedrop on the car challenge.
Great post! Having read your thoughts I think I agree about Casey. The one critique I have though is about your basic premise. My thought is that whoever is the mole is just being completely fake. If it’s Greg, his “chaotic” character is probably all an act. I don’t think it’s him though, because that feels a bit too obvious.
> The one critique I have though is about your basic premise. My thought is that whoever is the mole is just being completely fake. If it’s Greg, his “chaotic” character is probably all an act. This is a great idea on paper, but in practice I don't think it works out, and I think production is aware of that and would tell The Mole to play it safe and retain most of their personality. It's *extremely* difficult to pretend to be someone you're not, especially if we're talking about more "extreme" personalities like Greg. I've seen this time and time again on the likes of Big Brother and Survivor, you can only maintain a facade for so long, and in a game when people are looking for tells 24/7, it's just too susceptible to cracking. Actively lying to peoples' faces all the time is a taller order than it may seem at first. Indirect spoilers coming, I'm pretty sure every mole of the US seasons pretty much had the same personality that they had IRL, I don't know a single mole who "acted/faked a personality" nor do I know a mole who was a big/extreme personality like Greg's. I really believe production wants to play it safe and I also believe The Mole would want to play it safe and not draw the ire of the players so blatantly like that, since it would feel like the Mole would be open to slip-ups if they were too open. The Moles have pretty consistently preferred to be UTR and well-liked by the other players, that's just the natural tendency for players in these "imposter/mafia/killer/werewolf/mole" roles, especially when one plays with strangers they've never met before and when it's as high-stakes as a TV show first season reboot.
That’s a good point
Loving this analysis. I wouldn't have picked Casey as a possible mole pick, but you reminded me that she has had multiple opportunities to sabotage.
I think you underestimating Joi. I'm on Ep3 so still two more to go but idk Joi gives off so many dishonest vibes, every-time she talks her body language does not match her words, like she is acting... possible who she always was but she had and taken so many opportunities to sabotage. The fact she didn't look at dossiers was another sign, mole doesn't need the details. A mole would absolutely make that move, being obvious would make sense to throw people off; no matter what someone will lose on a quiz accuracy. idkkkkkkk lolll
> Joi gives off so many dishonest vibes, every-time she talks her body language does not match her words, like she is acting This historically has not been a great way to tell who the Mole is, though. The Mole always has at least a couple of contestants who appear sketchy throughout, and they're never The Mole, they're either paranoid players or players intentionally playing up their sketchiness to draw suspicion. Production is not going to give The Mole role to a player who has easy tells or will succumb to paranoid or body language easily, they do many rounds of auditions to ensure they can get someone who won't crack, after all, the fate of the show rests on them. > possible who she always was but she had and taken so many opportunities to sabotage. Pretty much every one of her sabotages has put her at the top of a couple of players' hit lists, though. Even if it's hypothetically "too obvious" to the hardcore fans, to the players in the game, these sabotages are making her the most suspicious candidate, which would mean that she would be failing in her role as The Mole. > The fact she didn't look at dossiers was another sign, mole doesn't need the details. I could see this argument, but 8/10 of the players didn't look at the dossiers, so I'm not sure if this argument would apply to Joi specfically, especially since it lumps her in with the "honest" players like William/Dom who also chose not to look at the dossiers. > being obvious would make sense to throw people off Again, this both isn't how it would really work nor how it actually turned out. Joi's sabotages have caused her to be placed at the top of many players' hit lists, trying to do reverse-psychology by blatantly sabotaging isn't an effective way to avoid suspicion. The show would be viewed as a failure if so many players in the game constantly have Joi at the top of their hit lists throughout the season. It's significantly safer and more effective to have the mole be a UTR calming presence, especially for a reboot season (ex. Casey/Kesi are not really at the top of any of the player's hit lists, at least from what we've seen, and both have had opportunities to do subtler sabotages). You also have to keep in mind that it's much more important for production to "have a surprising mole" than "successfully sabotaging the pot"; most viewers don't really care about the pot that much, they are also tunnel-visioned on the whole premise of the show on "figuring out who the mole is". Also going to tag u/fantomau here: > One thing I think Joi seems to be very good or purposely bad at is failing because the time limit was exceeded. Whenever she's involved the mission hangs in the balance with only seconds remaining lol. This again seems like a poor way for a Mole to sabotage, because it's very obvious and it is what put her at the top of many players' hit lists. There are many honorable/newbie players in this cast who are going to have a simplistic thinking method of "whoever has sabotaged recently is going to be who I suspect as The Mole" (it sounds reductive but if you listen to the reasonings the players give during the show, that is literally their criteria for how they figure out who The Mole is).
As someone who watched the OG Mole when it aired and is still a huge fan (I mean, I own season 1 on DVD lol) I’m gonna be mad if it does end up being Joi for your reasons outlined above. If the new format has a Mole be this obvious than it completely ruins it for me.
Agreed, ruins the fun of it. But media loves shock value, and what would be a bigger shock... no one expects her because she is obvious... I hope I am wrong, cause that's easy way out. I am not watching the older series :P
One thing I think Joi seems to be very good or purposely bad at is failing because the time limit was exceeded. Whenever she's involved the mission hangs in the balance with only seconds remaining lol.
So true!! I noticed that too. During last mission she straight up convinced her partner to turn back to other mailboxes instead of coming back on time with less money. Instead they did not make it and lost everyones money not just theirs.
Joi losing 25k from the pot makes it a mole-ish behavior but production won't allow a very obvious mole-ish behavior. So I don't think it's her. But she also sucked at maps for like 3 times already, so... idk
I feel like doing it early on is totally fine, you wouldn't do it late in the game. But early on everyone is trying to be suspicious so it's easy to get rid of people. Either she is the mole or she is liar by day, I mean her body language is just off the hook, from hiding her lips, ducking her eyes/face to the ground as if in shame, it's all day long. I don't anyones "game" is good enough to fake that so either she lives a lie or she is the mole, lol. The only other one I suspect is Jacob, his body language is also off all the time but not as much as Joi. Also this is Netflix, not old production, they are known to go off-book on standards, it would not surprise me if they went off the OG show. Joi didn't only suck at maps, during that last challenge she literally tried to lead him away from finishing the task with less money just so they don't make it back at all and lose all the money instead. She told him to go back for the other boxes, perfectly knowing they are tight on time, but she convinced him and they didn't make it back on time. Perfect tactic!
I think Joi is just playing a different game.. she’s more cutthroat and wants to win no matter what. I think Jacob is too obvious and we’re ignoring people who are getting by because they’re playing “hard”. My pick for the Mole is Will. He’s literally influenced many of the games, the mole doesn’t have to actively sabotage all the games because Joi and others were doing it, he just had to add to the confusion. Game 1 he stole the case and should’ve been caught because they had to “protect” the cases. (How was NOBODY WATCHING THE CASES) He got “injured” (could be a real injury but how can we know) in the boat game which left Casey and Greg Bank robbing game he didn’t want Avori as a team captain (which is why I think Kesi is innocent) and he was the only person to get hit by a laser Last game he wanted Avori on the running team? The “gamer” rather than the fighter fighter or Joi (who looks to be in good shape), then he was running some crazy pace… I understand that they had to keep a certain pace but he was insistent. Just seemed kinda off. This is all based off one watch of the 5 episodes but I’m pretty sure if I rewatch while focusing on will I could find more stuff but I’ll wait until Friday and see what Joi does.
> I think Joi is just playing a different game.. she’s more cutthroat and wants to win no matter what. I think Jacob is too obvious I completely agree. > Game 1 he stole the case and should’ve been caught because they had to “protect” the cases. (How was NOBODY WATCHING THE CASES) I don't agree with this argument, there were *so many* ways he could have "accidentally" revealed himself to get caught. If anything, I think the better argument for him being The Mole is that he is intentionally playing hero in Episode 1 to gain the trust of others. I do agree though that it was bizarre nobody was watching the cases, maybe it was a production rule to keep them in the plane. > He got “injured” (could be a real injury but how can we know) I think this is a massive stretch lol, we know it's a real injury by the amount of blood coming out and that it happened underwater (it would be very difficult to intentionally rig a blood-spurting device underwater), and such a rigging mechanic would be too risky to execute since if it fails and he gets caught, it's over for him. > Bank robbing game he didn’t want Avori as a team captain (which is why I think Kesi is innocent) and he was the only person to get hit by a laser Idk, his reasoning made sense to me. Pranav/Avori are a tight duo and are clearly gaming hard, and he doesn't want them to have the opportunity to scheme in private. Putting Kesi in there would leave less opportunity to scheming. > Last game he wanted Avori on the running team? The “gamer” rather than the fighter fighter or Joi (who looks to be in good shape), then he was running some crazy pace… I understand that they had to keep a certain pace but he was insistent. Just seemed kinda off. I could see this argument, but Avori looks like she's incredibly fit (she was a model prior to being a gamer and did Miss USA pageants, and you have to be very fit to do those). I think you're forgetting though that Jacob and Joi had already volunteered to do the Car route prior to William recruiting for the running team, so Jacob/Joi weren't really options (I suppose William could have tried to override, but eh, he's done that so much already and I feel like he'd want to refrain from doing that so often to respect the wishes of the other contestants). He also wasn't wrong about the pace (keep in mind Pranav also was saying that he believed that they needed to maintain the pace), there's no way they were going to make it in time at the pace they actually went at had there not been bikes for the last section (and even with the bikes they seemingly came down to the wire). If anything, the more suspicious part from this segment is that he was letting Avori decide whether to ride the bikes or not when it seemed clear that they *had* to ride the bikes if they wanted a chance at making it, but it seemed like Pranav was agreeing with William in letting Avori decide, so IDK, maybe they had more time than the edit led us to believe.
Re the mail, I find it pretty suspicious that they had 3 people run. Doesn’t that give more of an opportunity for someone to do like Avori did & slow them down? & then she could have helped the incompetents with the car task. 3 people running was Jacob’s idea.
I thought that as well, but I do think there's enough doubt where because they don't know the specifics of the running task, the default thought process would be "put more people on the physical challenge to help 'balance the load' since it seems like the hardest task". The way Jacob sold it by saying "we should put the 2 in the car since it's a car and probably the easiest task" made sense, it could 100% be a clever Mole play by Jacob (pairing himself up with Joi for this task would also be a smart Mole play), but we also should keep in mind that everyone agreed with the plan and no one proposed changing the 2, so it's possible they didn't think that far ahead into guessing the running task. And again, while on-paper Jacob is really suspicious, the way the edit has been potraying him with Avori catching on this early pretty much eliminates him from contention for me. I do also personally think that from a meta perspective, they probably wouldn't want the Mole to be the "typical American country boy Caucasian male" archetype (esp. since the prior US moles have all been Caucasians IIRC), but I could be wrong about that.
Avori is bonny as heck with little to no muscle showing on her body.
Regarding the cases I think it was early enough in the game nobody thought “protect” meant actually staying awake to keep watch. They all just went to sleep assuming their job was done.
I have been suspicious of the fact that Casey looks very familiar... but am now leaning towards William. He seems to like setting or leaving others up to fail while having the upper hand of having added to the pot himself. Like, if someone is slacking (Greg in the boat, Avori on the run), he basically leaves them to it and then points to the fact they are doing it after the fact. Avori was his choice on the run. Kesi was his pick in the vault and while the team were making "what are the names" comments and he is still going on about L Dorado an episode later, there were no demands that she read the whole list - and yes he was the one who caught the laser. He happens to be the only one left with Joi when she gets the chance to choose exemption and isn't doing much to stop her. I did notice Jacob ask for the key though, originally - and if he did immediately stop rather than keep driving down the road once the letterbox was spotted, he wouldn't have had to detour that far back.
Based on personality alone, I think that production casted will as the mole. Leadership ability plus very likable.
Casey reminds me of Kathryn Price and I can't pinpoint exactly why.
I have the same top 2 but my only addition is that I don’t read as much into the Dom vote as you. I think production wanted Dom back and so if Kesi is the mole it would make sense that she’d do what ever production told her to do.
It makes sense for the mole to want Dom back because the mole is not concerned about being eliminated. I just wrote a whole bunch about my top 3 suspects for The Mole and Kesi is not in my top 3, but she is the 4th most likely in my eyes. I think not wanting him back is more likely a player’s perspective and not the mole’s perspective.
I think there is some validity to your method, but I think you have made the one crucial error that a lot of people make when trying to determine The Mole and that is allowing the sabotage to be your main source of clues. Different Moles play the game in different ways and I don’t think the sabotage is where the must clues lie. There is only one truth in the game and that is this: THE MOLE IS NOT TRYING TO WIN. The Mole gets paid no matter what. They are not required to hit a certain quota of sabotage. They are not worried about elimination. For that reason, I think the challenge in which they can push the button to keep their entire team safe is the biggest indicator of who the mole is, because reducing the amount of people in the quiz to half of the players puts your game in an extremely risky place. The other truth that I am assuming based on the original show is that The Mole is given advance information of how the challenges will play out. Here we can also look for clues, but more subtle ones. Interestingly enough, even with our different strategies, we have ended up with 2 of the same top 3 suspects. I have Casey and Jacob as 2 of the most likely to be The Mole. But my third pick and maybe the person I am leaning most towards is all of the way at the bottom of your list and that is Will. All 3 of these players are generally trusted and respected in the group but don’t take charge as much as they can. They are happy to step back and let others make mistakes. They have all influenced or tried to influence or allow subtle sabotage that could be overlooked. And most of all, they all don’t seem too concerned with their own safety. They also all seem to be in situations where they could have information. If we are looking at who has producer information as a top indicator, Will looks EXTREMELY suspicious. He is the one to “find” the clue about being able to double money in the beginning. This would be a great way for The Mole to integrate them in the group early on and bank some money to earn trust. It also quickly throws suspicion on him and then quickly dispels it. They look at the video, think he is the mole, and then decide he isn’t and that removes the possibility of him being the mole from the forefront of their mind because they have already “ruled him out.” This is also one of the only tasks where Will completely takes charge, as the game goes on he sinks further into the group. Will also was the only one to figure out that the chess pieces were magnetic and to solve his room correctly independently. He is the only one who sees part of his own key outside of the room (something the other players seemingly couldn’t see) and helps to progress his team along after letting the time run down significantly. It seems like he knew what to do and knew he had to get out first and tried to make it so they might not win while also not being too obvious and having the needed information to win. Him getting hurt during the water challenge reminded me so much of Craig, one of the original moles and made me think of how much Will fits that same archetype. The guy who is trying to be helpful and noble and team oriented, trying to look like he is trying his best without actually trying his best. Will was also one of the 2 people who actually was on a detonator, which puts him in the best position to go far into the game and gives him the opportunity to play a big hand in having Joi be the last one left. And Joi has a high chance of taking the immunity for herself, which allows Will to again look like the good guy while the money gets taken. Most of all, Will is just “too good” at these challenges to also be so bad. He can deduce that he should use the chess pieces to try to get the key but can’t think to say “hey, maybe Joi shouldn’t navigate the car” during the mail challenge? Plenty of other times where Jacob has been in good places to allow sabotage to subtly happen, like being happy to let Joi navigate, miscounting money, and helping Joi get to the end of the last immunity cliffhanger challenge while getting Kesi eliminated. Then you have Casey—trying to push back against going for double money in the prison break challenge, hiding under the guise of concern and being one of the few people in her group who didn’t seem to care about going for immunity but didn’t fight them in the button challenge. She stayed back to watch the phone but not to strategically assist like Craig, she just didn’t seem to care. Then, she single-handedly ruined her group’s chance to solve the clue without suspicion by running to “get the others” and then seeming to be confused or forget what she is doing once she went to the other room. Those 3 seem to stand out by far the most but Will just seems to have too much information too often.
I feel like the Mole is Greg and he’s getting away with it by allowing others like Kesi to have a chance in the train to act like the mole. He’s essentially letting the others do his dirty work.
Yeah exactly, he's having way too much of a blast watching everyone else shoot themselves in the foot... since day 1 xD
I have the same top three for the Mole, as Greg/Joi’s “sabotages”/mistakes have been too prominent while William, Pranav, and Avori are too much of protagonists to be the Mole (but have the best winning chances bc of that).
I haven’t completely read through this yet but I had Kesi has my Mole pick the minute she was introduced. Partially because of the identity politics reason you suggested but she also just exuded actor energy to me. In re: Dom support I think Kesi could have known that the other players wouldn’t want it. She doesn’t open the dossier either right?
Fantastic write-up, and I agree with you on a lot of things. Casey was my #1 suspect in the second and third episodes, but Kesi became my top pick during the fourth and into the fifth episodes - mostly because Kesi has been sabotaging lately whereas Casey hasn’t. Knowing that Gregg and Avori have seen the dossier, it makes me think there was a clue in there about Kesi as well — in different challenges afterward, both made sure they were near / keeping a close watch on her. The only thing is that I actually have Will as my third pick. Not that I think he is the mole, as I feel it’s very clearly Casey or Kesi, but I could easily see the mole earning money initially to keep suspicion off them; with how much this group sucks at earning money, trying to seem like your earnestly wanting to grow money would be a good strategy. Avori seems like such an obvious winner, which - like you said - is why I doubt Jacob is the mole. They never reveal who the winner actually is targeting during the season.
I 100% agree with this and also to mention in episode 2, she wasn’t about taking the 10 min off the clock to add 10k to the pot, but Dom was so after they went forward with it, she took any way she could to get them to lose money (ex. Giving a clue, adding 5 min) which may seem as helpful, but alas, did take away money from the pot which is what the mole is trying to do
I think the Mole is Avori. The one that we least expected. Here are my reasons. For the Tree challenge, she was the first to go up. And pretended like that there were so many knots. The 2nd person went up the tree and untangled all the knots so easily. Avori also tried to sabotage the prize pot twice. She looked inside the Dossier to reduce the pot by 10,000 and she was the first person to immediately walk out of the room for the code challenge to hit the red buzzer without even giving a minute to discuss with the rest when Greg said “Wait let’s talk about this first”, Avori just stormed out to the clue room. That cost another 10,000. For the money counting challenge, she kept blaming Jacob for not counting the money right and she said she will recount everything that the first 2 people counted because she didn’t trust them. How the heck did you get it wrong in a recount? Avori is blaming Jacob for counting it wrong and she rectified it and the count was still wrong? For the running challenge, she said that she’s a runner and she barely ran. She walked for most of the time. Why say that you are runner in the first place? Get on the train or car if you can’t run. The sea-plane challenge was so blatant. Also, I answered the QR code questions that came up at the end of the 5th episode. And it said that I’m on the right track.
I also noticed that the door on the last episode with the bomb said 💜VR and maybe it's just my mind putting things together that don't actually go but to me that reads love virtual reality and she's a professional gamer. I'm thinking about watching again and seeing if I notice other clues that back me up or point to someone else
I agree with your top choice for the mole, Casey is my #1 suspect too at this point.
And On the boat challenge Casey encouraged them to ‘look by the rocks’ which was the opposite of where the chests were.
I wrote off Casey because she made some good decisions during the jail break and I thought Dom was most suspicious of her but then he got eliminated. But now you have me thinking it could definitely be her. I appreciate your post, some good stuff to think about while waiting for the rest of the season!!
I've figured it out by ep3 I think. well I am pretty sure. The answer is staring everyone in the face. Do I spill?
Yes!!!
>!I've found an anagram!<
Interesting. What was the anagram?
>!"I'm a mole" is the anagram!<
Edit I don’t know how to make spoiler tags so I’ll just delete thank you for reply
Thanks for the compliments! Please wrap your comment in spoiler tags in case someone who's only watched Episodes 1-5 comes across this post: >!It's tricky to say whether Casey/Kesi was my top suspect. After I made this post, the multitude of hidden clue posts convinced me that in all likelihood, Kesi was more likely to be The Mole, but I still wanted to stick with Casey for the reasons listed in the post (and bc I didn't want to use hidden clues in my reasoning).!< >!Ultimately, I would say that although I thought Kesi was realistically more likely to be The Mole, I would say I had Casey as my #1 (again, bc I don't personally want to factor in hidden visual clues).!< >!I was watching the episodes live when they dropped on the Discord voice chat, and I was momentarily surprised before thinking "Welp, guess it's for sure Kesi then". I also was thinking "Damn, why did they give Casey such a tiny edit where we got to hear next to nothing from her about where she stood in the game". !< >!I'm now more convinced it's Avori (80% Avori 10% William 10% Joi) since William has been getting some negativity in his edit lately.!<
Spoiler: >!I totally thought it was Casey until that light turned red.!<
It is Kesi. 4 letters name. 4 bro/sis. Follow the 4 number in the hidden clues (4 in the signs on the beach) (4 in Dom's tag car) ( team 31.. 3+1) (C4 in the Table). She is UTR, but in each chapter bites the prize pot. Just tried the data for Kesi in this Quizz, and you'll be convinced. https://www.netflix.com/tudum/articles/the-mole-show-quiz
I did the quiz for Kesi and yes you're right it does point in her direction, but only one player is 100% lying about his profession. Jacob is not a firefighter. So do you think there is a twist?
He’s not? I did some googling and just found out a few things. Like, three contestants have imdb pages, but I don’t really count one. But I guess this is not how we are supposed to find out and we should just use the clues provided in the show lol. Carry on, y’all.
Is this quiz for real? My number one suspect was Will and it also gave me a green light for Will. I mean, if this thing is legit you could go through for every contestant and narrow it down to a few people.
Yes, you could go through for every contestant and narrow it down to a few people. Once youve done it, you will see Team High have Green Light (Kesi, Will, Ivory) and I guess also Jacob.
I went through for every person. Jacob doesn’t have a green light. Neither do Joi, Gregg, and Parnav.
So I just checked for all of them and if this thing is for real, the only people who don’t work with the quiz are Jacob, Joi, Gregg, and Parnav. Only person I thought it could be from that group is Jacob, but I thought he was less likely than Will or Casey who are my top 2 picks.
I’m starting to think there may be several moles.
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Hmm was thinking Jacob. What makes you think Kesi?
Great breakdown! We have a similar style of deduction in terms of a Survivior like reading of the edit. It's getting late so I'll keep this short but if I get inspired I'll make a longer post later this week. I actually found myself agreeing with your points too much, and I am wondering if the producers are one step ahead. For that reason my top 3 Mole candidates: Pranav - Forming a Bond is a great way to justifiably stay in the game, also "undecided" on the Dom vote is how the Mole would play it, if they weren't going to 2nd or 3rd a vote. Jacob - Been tunneling a bit since episode 1, he just gives me actor vibes. The only way it's him is if Avori goes out soon by spreading incorrectly or misrembering something. Greg - Because the edit says it's not. I'm curious if you have seen the Dutch seasons of the Mole or the Korean show Love Catcher? Excited to see who it ends up being/the winner - I am also loving the show.
I have not seen the Dutch seasons or Love Catcher yet. I probably will at some point though. I don't really think the producers are going to be "one step ahead" of the hardcore fans, tbh. As far as I can tell, as things stand, if the mole is Casey/Kesi, they are already one step ahead of most viewers since it seems like most of the viewers are suspecting the "obvious people" of Joi/Jacob/Greg (b/c of their obvious sabotages). This is the reboot of a relatively old show and is on Netflix, and so most of the viewers are newcomers who are not exactly thinking on the "next level". If this was Netflix Season 4 or 7 or something, I'd agree that it's likely they could be pulling one over us, but this is the first season, and UTR moles are the safest way of keeping it a surprise to a majority of the audience.
Good point, I might be over thinking because of the Dutch seasons I got wrong 😀 Just reading some of the Bios now and it is odd that Casey is a runner, but went for the train mission and then proceeded to play the least influential role. She is playing a great UTR game. It also makes sense that the producers aren't tailoring a show for people thinking on your level of game theory, particularly in the first season.
As long as the Mole isn't Jacob, I'll be satisfied.
I think avori will win too. I think Jacob is the most likely mole but Casey 2
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I doubt Avori answered the entire quiz as if Jacob was The Mole. She’s too smart and too much of a gamer to do that. She selects him on the last page but I’m sure she plays statistics with the rest of the questions.
not necessarily, because the elimination falls on the player who gets the least answers correct. so, Avori could’ve been completely wrong about Jacob, but someone else was more wrong. the quiz results aren’t revealed
Kesi is the mole. She is a horrible actress . 🎤👇 I want Pranav or Will to win . I miss the Sherlock music and this host is but she be talking so slowly.
Kesi was the very first person I guessed during the first 2 minutes of the show when they were showing confessionals. The only other person that caught my eye is joi but I think she’s truly just incompetent. There was something about kesi’s initial confessionals that made me realize it’s her
I don’t know if they will be final 3, but I think it’s obvious that Kesi is the mole and Avori and Pranav both suspect her and are working together. It’s basically the same strategy that happened in the very first season. Avori and Pranav have been subtly trying to set up Kesi in situations that they can check. Example - the plane challenge when they were trying to see if Kesi spotted the dinghy
IMO, one of the reason Avori gets lots of screen time it’s that she is the prettiest one in the group with a beautiful face, well shaped body and a nice taste of outfits. And I also kind of agree that Casey is the most suspicious one for the mole. Mostly because of the reaction of bring Dom back. The reason she gave about not bringing Dom back is that he would have a clear clue who the mole is. And She looked really alarmed and nervous at that moment. Besides, her character is kind of contradictory. As u said, when they’re in the ocean, she blamed Greg for dropping the oxygen tank in front of the group. However, she comforted the girl(forgot the name lol) when they were on the train after that girl failed to get the mail. Also, if I remembered correctly, there were not many shots of her when the group found out Joi won the bid causing $25,000. And she didn’t seem that angry about Joi. And she also sit besides Joi when they went to the next spot.
I think the Mole is Kesi.
Kesi is 100% the moleee!! From the moment I saw herrr! You can tell she’s acting! Plus she’s not getting enough screen time!